Aubrey Allegretti (3:05)

There's one thing Labour MPs are agreed on. They're sick to the back teeth of the Peter Mandelson saga hanging over them amongst Keir Starmer's allies. They're hoping that by rallying to comfortably see off an investigation into whether he misled Parliament, MPs have shown that they don't want to make life any harder for the Prime Minister. Government sources I spoke to in the aftermath crowed that over the weekend they feared key potential agitators like Angela Rayner could rebel and leave the government in serious doubt about losing. So they're claiming the result is a big win. But still behind the scenes, Starmer's detractors worry the issue isn't going away and the PM is permanently tainted. Ministers I spoke to were also deeply unhappy. It was a whipped vote, saying it looked like number 10 couldn't rely on backbenchers to support them freely. Ultimately, coming a week before major elections, few Labour MPs wanted to be so publicly disloyal. If the Tories had tried this tactic in a couple of weeks, they might have had better luck.

Luke Jones (4:09)

Thanks to Aubrey Allegretti for that, our chief political correspondent at the Times. It's an interesting point he makes that obviously we're paying a lot of attention to, but we have got those elections coming up and actually had all of this happened a month later, who knows, it might have played out very differently. Why do you think there's so much attention on this matter?

Manveen Rana (4:25)

It's just. It's such a classic Westminster story and it also has these big set piece moments. You know, those select committees have become compulsory viewing now and, you know, a real popcorn moment where the whole country seems to be watching and talking about it. You know, people are even noticing people sat behind.

Luke Jones (4:41)

Oh, don't mention that man of the Cravat. The man of the Cravat.

Manveen Rana (4:44)

But do you know what I mean? It's become the thing that everybody talks about, Emily Thornbury enjoying her role of sort of slightly pantomime spectacle. You know, everyone seems to be having fun. It's got a slight element of Ealing comedy about it, but at the same time a very serious, very serious story. And I think the reason it keeps going is because the Mandelson affair is nowhere near over. You know, there is sort of more to come with the police investigation. There are still documents that will be released at some point where we'll find out more about who knew what when. It's also partly because of what it shows us about Keir Starmer, about his judgment in appointing Peter Mandelson in the first place. He won this huge majority, basically, on being quite a boring candidate. The one thing everyone thought he did do was process and detail and detail. Here is a lawyer who will at least just get things right. And then here is a classic example of all process being thrown out of the window. A man being appointed before the vetting's even done. All of that is pretty shocking. It shows us a bit about the dysfunction within number 10 and who was actually making decisions, who influences Keir Starmer's. And then in the way that it's played out. You know, I know the question does talk about a senior official taking responsibility. I assume that's Morgan McSweeney, but Ollie Robbins.

Luke Jones (6:02)

Oh, I was gonna say Ollie Robins.

Manveen Rana (6:03)

Oh, I assume, you know, was. Was basically thrown under a bus and is not taking responsibility for this. And then there's just that sense of, what will Keir Starmer do when he's in a corner? Does he throw people who are doing their job under a bus? And each of those people will always come back wanting justice. So that's why the story keeps going.

Luke Jones (6:23)

And as you say, it's such a clear insight into something that illustrates something which, you know, colleagues of ours, his at the time, people like Patrick Maguire and Gabriel Pogren, have long illustrated in long form, the issue with an ability to make a decision as some people perceive it. And yet this issue here is so difficult actually to pin down. It's not the Chris Pincher scandal that ended up bringing Boris Johnson down, where there was a clear issue of wrongdoing that everyone can see is scandal. When we're here talking about different types of vetting, the difference between what the Foreign Office security team and UK security vetting are doing, it's so diffuse that I wonder if that's one of the reasons why it is both very important and there's rightly a lot of media attention on it. But also, we aren't at the point yet where. I was going to say, where it doesn't seem like the Prime Minister's in particular peril, but actually, if we got to the point at the weekend when number 10 was so worried about some MPs, you know, there's one quoted in the Times talking about having two cabinet ministers and a senior backbencher call them to see how they're going to be voting. And as all we alluded to there three line whip for something like this, maybe that does suggest that they are very worried about this.

Manveen Rana (7:26)

Yeah. And he isn't a man who seems to like scrutiny, despite being lawyer. He seems to want to sort of see off challenges. We hear about him trying to stop Andy Burnham, for example, entering Parliament now. So there is a sense that he sort of tries to see off threats before they arrive. I think one of the other reasons this is such an interesting story and why it's still going on is because, let's not forget, it was leaked. You know, nobody knew about the vetting scandal. Something must have come out from Cabinet Office or somebody who knew. So it also points to, you know, we've had that sweep of number 10. We've had people like Morgan McSweeney out. It points to there still being dysfunction and still being dissatisfaction, because how did that story even come out?

Luke Jones (8:05)

Especially when you have people like Ollie Robbins sort of being particularly aggrieved at something about vetting was leaked. Whereas, you know, he talks about at length how it should be some of the most secret work that government does and yet somehow ends up in the pages of the newspapers.

Manveen Rana (8:17)

Yes, that's why it's run.

Luke Jones (8:21)

We've got quite international listeners. Don't worry, we're gonna have one from Hampshire in a minute. But first, Damian in Hong Kong says the Trump administration pushed back on Mandelson's appointment, preferring the prior incumbent to remain in the position. That was Dame Karen Pearce, Remember she with the feather boa. Why did the Prime Minister persist in the appointment, given all of this? I guess they would say Peter Mandelson had a particular set of skills. He was somebody who'd worked in trade, who had shared friends with Donald Trump. They seemed to feel like he could get a. Which maybe they thought Karen Pierce couldn't.

Manveen Rana (8:53)

Well, it's very curious because, you know, Karen Pierce was very well liked by the Trump administration. She seemed to be a bit of a Trump whisperer. She's, you know, she's a brilliant diplomat, she's quite unconventional, she's very warm. She's a, you know, character, high camp. She's a great character. And it really worked in the Trump administration. She'd already formed a relationship with them the first time round. I think what people forget is actually the process for removing her had begun under the last government. What changed is that the last government was trying to get a Foreign Office official in. And this government came in and seems to have decided from the get go that it wouldn't be another diplomat. And, you know, there are rumors that they were considering George Osborne before they had landed on Peter Mantles. Basically anyone who was once on a yacht with Oleg Deripaska was, was pretty much in the running Russian oligarch. And there was a great scandal about 10 years ago where both Peter Mandelson and George Osborne were on a yachting corfu with him.

Luke Jones (9:50)

I know one of them is languishing in podcasting, can you imagine? Amongst very other high paid jobs and

Manveen Rana (9:56)

Silicon Valley, to be fair.

Luke Jones (9:57)

Oh, of course, he's on the board of OpenAI now, isn't he? George Osborne, Yeah.

Manveen Rana (10:01)

But they seemed determined to bring in somebody who they thought would be, I guess, a business voice. But it's just odd given that we now know so many people within the Trump administration told them they didn't want Karen Pierce to go. If you're trying to strengthen that relationship, it's odd that they would ignore that advice.

Luke Jones (10:18)

At time of recording, we were watching yesterday the King speak at the joint session of Congress and also at the White House dinner that had been held in his hon. And it did make me think that for all the turmoil on the diplomatic side and the beef that continues between Donald Trump and Keir Starmer, a lot of that seems to just fall by the wayside quite quickly when you have a shiny royal in place. And I just wonder, how is this all. Is this whole stoosh as big an issue as we think it might be here in terms of the long term strength of our relationship and things we can do with the United States?

Manveen Rana (10:52)

I mean, I think America is very keen to forget the Peter Mandelson chapter as quickly as possible because it brings up the wrong sort of headlines for them. I think the relationship has been at a very low point. You know, it is pretty much at its nadir in the last few weeks with the things that Donald Trump has been saying about Keir Starmer bringing the Falklands up as a threat. All of this does feel like the special relationship is not so special anymore. But Donald Trump clearly does have an absolute fascination for the royal family. His mother was clearly always a fan.

Luke Jones (11:23)

Haven't seen Prince Charles.

Manveen Rana (11:24)

Have you seen Prince Charles? As he pointed out, that was quite something.

Aubrey Allegretti (11:27)

He loved the royal family and she loved the Queen.

Manveen Rana (11:33)

I also remember her saying very clearly, charles, look, young Charles, he's so cute. My mother, my mother had a crush on Charles.

Luke Jones (11:49)

Can you believe It.

Manveen Rana (11:50)

There was a huge ripple of laughter across the newsroom when that broke. But for him, those are big, special moments. There is a danger you can't whip those out every week whenever you need a policy decision. There is a danger that they might have done the big royal visit too soon because they've got years of Trump to go and no more, you know, nothing left in the Arsenal. You can't possibly invite him to another state visit anytime soon.

Luke Jones (12:14)

Third historic state visit.

Manveen Rana (12:16)

That would be excessive. It was very slick. Kudos to the King's speechwriters.

Luke Jones (12:22)

That was a absolutely hilarious.

Aubrey Allegretti (12:24)

Now, as you may know, when I address my own Parliament at Westminster, we still follow an age old tradition and take a Member of Parliament hostage, holding him or her at Buckingham palace until I am safely returned. These days we look after our guests rather well, to the point that they often do not want to leave. I don't know, Mr. Speaker, if there are any volunteers for that role here today.

Manveen Rana (13:03)

Very, very, very genuinely good jokes. Genuinely good. And he, again, timing, his comic timing is not bad.

Aubrey Allegretti (13:09)

The Founding Fathers were bold and imaginative rebels with a cause. 200, 250 years ago, or as we say in the United Kingdom, just the other day. They declared independence.

Luke Jones (13:30)

He's a very witty man, but also he suffered, like many British performers, had the indignity of American standing ovations, which happen at sort of 10 second intervals. They were constantly on their feet. I mean, it was a good.

Manveen Rana (13:42)

Let him get to the.

Luke Jones (13:43)

Let him crack on.

Manveen Rana (13:44)

Let him get to the gag.

Luke Jones (13:46)

Yeah, exactly. And they would sort of cut him off midpoint. There's a bit where he talks about, you know, the need for checks on the executive. He'd barely get onto the next sentence. They're up on their feet for another 10 minutes.

Manveen Rana (13:55)

Slightly teeth, I will say. As well as that royal visit has gone, there is already hints of potential diplomatic disaster ahead with the story around the current ambassador in Washington, which landed just on the eve of the visit.

Luke Jones (14:12)

Yes. And so this is our current man in Washington, Christian Turner. And he was videoed some months ago speaking to a gaggle of school aged teenagers where he was being frank, surprisingly frank. Too frank for our diplomat, would you say?

Manveen Rana (14:27)

I'd say surprisingly frank. I don't think it's a diplomat's job most of the time to be like that. Certainly not to an audience. You know, you might do that behind the scenes to a counterpart where you're trying to, you know, you're trying to have an honest conversation and you think a bit of honesty on your Part might elicit the same from them. But that's gotta be in a position where, you know that that's not gonna hit the headlines tomorrow.

Luke Jones (14:51)

Exactly.

Manveen Rana (14:51)

It's gotta be sort of with another diplomat. It's gotta be circle where, you know it's going to be quite close. But to do it to children is quite unusual.

Luke Jones (14:57)

And in terms of what he said, he said that the US's only special relationship really was with Israel. And he also said that, you know, the Peter Manelsen affair almost toppled the government here. Could have brought down the Prime Minister on that latter point. Fair comment.

Manveen Rana (15:11)

I mean, I think his analysis was faultless.

Luke Jones (15:14)

Yeah.

Manveen Rana (15:14)

I don't think anybody disagrees with what he said. It was just whether he should have said it to that particular audience.

Luke Jones (15:19)

Is he safe, do you think?

Manveen Rana (15:21)

You'd assume the last thing they want now is to have to pull another ambassador and bring up the whole Mandelson story again. It's barely over, but he'll be having a rocky few weeks. It's very interesting the way this story has broken too, because you know it,

Luke Jones (15:35)

someone's been sitting on it.

Manveen Rana (15:36)

Somebody sat on it for two months and then they chose to take it to the FT to have sort of a very big international audience immediately. You know, they could have taken it to a tabloid and made money. You know, like they didn't take it to a paper for their own benefit. They've done it clearly to have the biggest impact. So it's a very smart political operative move to be releasing it on the eve of the visit like that.

Luke Jones (15:59)

Interesting. Well, we'll talk about how all of this might shake down in various elections which are rattling towards us on the 7th of May. You're listening to the.

Aubrey Allegretti (16:17)

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Manveen Rana (18:09)

Luke We've been talking about some of the scandals in Westminster over the last week, but there's probably even more trouble ahead for Keir Starmer and that's with the local elections next week. Tell us what we're expecting.

Luke Jones (18:23)

Yes, well more than 30 million of us are going to be voting on the 7th of May. If you're in Scotland or if you're in Wales, you'll be voting for your devolved parliaments. And in England, every big city is holding council contests for the most part, and many large council areas as well in the south and east. We're in London of course, lots of eyes are on London to see what might happen there. Lots of historically Labour places might lose out to the Greens and then you head further north and places like Sunderland, Sunderland Council might go to reform somewhere which has been a Labour council ever since it was created in the 70s. So a kind of what do we now I've lost my count on walls. Is this a red. This is a wall now. Is that still a red wall?

Manveen Rana (19:07)

I know the red wall has definitely

Luke Jones (19:11)

been rebuilt in parts.

Manveen Rana (19:12)

It's been rebuilt in parts but now it's probably going turquoise slash green. It's like a tidal wave of sea colours coming across.

Luke Jones (19:21)

Well, somebody who has been reporting across all of this is again our chief political correspondent Aubrey Allegretti. He sent us this voice note to update on what's happening.

Aubrey Allegretti (19:28)

It would be wrong to say that there is a consensus across the whole Labour Party, but as one particularly downward detractor put it to me recently, half the MPs are lying to each other about how bad things are and the other half are lying to themselves. For weeks now we've had polls, forecasts, MRPs pointing to major headaches for Labour at this, the biggest set of elections since Keir Starmer won his thumping majority, looking set to lose to reform in places like Sunderland, Hartlepool, County Durham and Thurrock, and the Greens in London strongholds like Lambeth, Buffock, hackney and the PM's own backyard of Islington. Labour's vote risks splintering in all directions. It's true that incumbent parties tend to fare badly in these so called midterm elections, but it looks like there'll be some historic losses making this moment really painful for Labour MPs. As one of them said to me this week, the 2024 intake include a lot more ex councillors than usual. That means their friends are councillors and they'll feel the pain of seat losses much more acutely. Today's councillors are tomorrow's foot soldiers too, though a depleted and de energised activist base will spell bad news for Labour's ground game as it seeks to keep up momentum over the coming years. Failing to win in Scotland and being pushed into third place in Wales isn't inevitable. But if it happens, the cry of voices calling for Keir Starmer to go and a different leader to take over is likely to intensify. So question is, how many will stay anonymous, fearing for their jobs? And how many will go over the top and bring the whole will they, won't they? Question finally to an end?

Luke Jones (21:19)

Tantalising stuff, as we heard on the podcast very recently, you have been reporting. Well, first of all in Wales, on the elections there. What did you make of that?

Manveen Rana (21:26)

Everything Aubrey says about, you know, the MPs who are either lying to themselves or to each other seems entirely true. Because if they haven't realized there is a problem in their constituencies, they probably haven't been out on the doorstep speaking to people. Everybody we met in Swansea, you know, the only people who said they were going to vote Labour, you know, we had one woman in Swansea who said she was going to vote Labour, but only because she was worried her father would turn his grave if she didn't. He'd been a minor and that, that sort of history, that, that connection lives on. But there were so many people there and this is a Labor heartland. This is where the labor movement comes from. So many who were saying, I've always voted Labour, my family has always voted. For generations they have been staunch Labour supporters, but not anymore.

Luke Jones (22:10)

And it's interesting, that's the kind of thing we had a few years ago under Boris Johnson with the red wall in the kind of, you know, Nottinghamshire Yorkshire area, sort of my neck of the woods. And now similarly coal mining country, places like Merthyr, as you say, sort of Keir Hardy, Land labour since the 20s,

Manveen Rana (22:28)

maybe not very soon, completely turning, which is, as you say, you know the history of Labour there. Keir Hardy, you have Ramsay Macdonald having a seat down there. All the sort of the leaders of the movement came from that patch. This is the heartland. If they don't have South Wales, if they don't have the valleys, what is Labour? It's almost existential.

Luke Jones (22:51)

And what was the sort of reasoning that people were giving to you, other than a kind of apathy with the way the country is and how things are going?

Manveen Rana (22:57)

A lot of the people we spoke to in both Scotland, in Motherwell and in Swansea, it wasn't actually about local issues at all. They often weren't even aware of who their local candidate was. They very rarely brought up local issues. I mean, there was a sense that things weren't working there in Wales. There was even a sense that maybe devolution wasn't working because people didn't know what the Welsh Parliament really did for them. The only time they noticed it was when it brought in 20 mph speed limits. And that had a mixed reception. I think it'd be fair to say. When they're using the health service, when they're using education, they don't necessarily understand the role that the Welsh Parliament is playing. They don't see it as being called to their lives. Everybody was talking about Westminster politics and we've got a question here, actually, from Thomas Baker saying Westminster politics, never mind overseas issues, shouldn't feature in considerations for local government elections. And yet that's all we heard everywhere we went, people in Motherwell, you know, it wasn't even the party, it was Keir Starmer himself they would be talking about. We were so surprised by the number of people, completely unprompted. We hadn't asked what they thought of Keir Starmer. We asked which way they were voting. It was immediately won't vote Labour because of Keir Starmer. I would have done if it was Andy Burnham.

Luke Jones (24:05)

Interesting.

Manveen Rana (24:05)

Which is really interesting and unexpected.

Luke Jones (24:07)

And it's something that Anasawa, the leader of Labour in Scotland, realised sooner than others. He was obviously the one who went out over the top by himself and called for Keir Starmer to go. Seeing just. Even in the poll numbers that we've had recently, there was once a time where he was on course to be first Minister of Scotland. Now doesn't look likely.

Manveen Rana (24:23)

Well, it was such a political risk, but for him it hasn't paid off because people In Scotland, even though he made that massive move, tried to separate himself from Starmer, they don't see him as separate. They're still voting on Starmer in the Scottish elections, in the Scottish parliamentary elections. And that's going to be a real problem for him.

Luke Jones (24:41)

Which, if you're John Swinney, First Minister, you're sort of quite happy about that. If you're Nigel Farage, you want people thinking about that. If you're Zach Polanski, you want people thinking about those national issues. There is that tug you've heard definitely Labour and Peace complaining in the past about saying, but we are doing these things in your local council. People are interested in that when there is such drama at a higher level. And obviously you voting one way or another in your local council isn't going to affect the outcome of the war in Iran. However, it is one of the few expressions of your opinion that we get in this country. So if you want to vote for that reason, vote for that reason. We've got a question from someone called M. Devlin. I don't know if that's M. Devlin or Monsieur Devlin or Mark. We don't know. In the past, when Britain write in

Manveen Rana (25:26)

and let us know.

Luke Jones (25:27)

In the past when Britain was a de facto 2 1/2 party state, I was a strong advocate of first past the post voting. Now, however. However, when we have five parties all within 10 points of one another in the national polls, that position is increasingly untenable. There has never been a better time to reboot the national discussion about moving to proportional representation. That sounds like Nick Clegg writing in.

Manveen Rana (25:50)

I was going to say, I'm not sure how he'd feel about the half a party, but it was the half a party of the Lib Dems who have been campaigning on this for years and did manage to have a referendum on it back in, in 2011.

Luke Jones (26:04)

And we said no.

Manveen Rana (26:05)

And we said no. We said no. And that's partly because they were backing a particular form of proportional representation that was av, the alternative vote, which does have problems with it. It does sometimes end up favoring candidates unexpectedly. You can have a situation where you get the most votes and still don't quite win, which it has mathematical problems I think we sort of find slightly inequitable. What was really interesting being in Scotland and Wales was that they do have proportional representation Scotland for the reason of

Luke Jones (26:37)

keeping out, you know, a one party state. How has that turned out?

Manveen Rana (26:40)

Well, in both places they used the de haunt system, which nobody seems to understand. It also makes it quite Hard for polling reasons to work out who's going to win because you've got to take into account who's on the list, who's on the list. And I mean, it's a mad system where, you know, the first round, the winner hit their voters half. But there will be continued calls for this, given that we are moving into a multi party system and people want to be represented.

Luke Jones (27:19)

Just finally, let's have a word about what's happening in Iran. We mentioned how the king is currently in Washington D.C. at the time of recording, he's fast asleep in bed somewhere. But at 4am the morning after that state banquet, Donald Trump takes to Truth Social to say no more, Mr. Nice Guy. He's got a fake image of him in a black suit with a semi automatic weapon with a sort of desert city behind him, largely on fire with the caption, iran can't get that act together. They don't know how to sign a non nuclear deal. They better get smart soon. President DJT and Caroline asked the question, how can any Iranian administration trust the current American one to observe any agreement which might be arrived at? What do you make of that? And you think, how close are we even to getting to the point where we might trust a deal, let alone there being one?

Manveen Rana (28:08)

I mean, that is a very interesting response to a big state banquet that everyone thought was a success. Gordon Lee knows what happened in the intervening hours, but for that post to go up is clearly a sign that he's trying to warn the Iranians that they could resume the war, that they need to get on with negotiations and take them seriously. They've done that before. He has warned that they could return to and it hasn't had much of an impact. There's a slight sign of desperation around this Donald Trump. It's now 60 days. He always said this would be a very short war. He wasn't going to bring America into another unending war where people would be tied up and money would be spent for a very long time. The clock is ticking and yet he's no closer to getting a deal. There's been this blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by America, which they thought would be a great choke point and would force the Iranians to the table. Part of the problem seems to be they can't work out which Iranian to negotiate with. There is still a bit of a leadership crisis there, but it doesn't seem to have had the effect they want. And I think that's partly because the Iranians have a much higher threshold for pain. In this than the Americans do. For them, it's existential. They're willing to see this through whatever it means in terms of their economy and whatever it means in terms of the impacts of their infrastructure. They have been really badly hit. But there's been a real sort of, sort of rallying around the flag effect of being bombed by America and Israel. And you know, you sort of see all the propaganda coming out of Iran. They're not showing any signs of backing down or being desperate for a deal. And it's the phrase that was often used in Afghanistan where the Taliban would sort of say, you have all the clocks and we have all the time. We can wait this out. And with Donald Trump, because of his opposition to those long wars, it feels like it's not even a clock, it's a stopwatch. You know, every second is costing him political capital and he's very aware of it. He needs a deal and soon. And the Iranians are very willing to wait this out.

Luke Jones (30:10)

Yeah. And I guess the one slip up of the whole royal visit is Donald Trump saying that the King agrees with him that Iran must never have a nuclear weapon. Which again, one of those things where on the face of it, yes, I'm sure the King does think that that is the UK government position. They would not like Iran to have a nuclear weapon.

Manveen Rana (30:26)

But I can't imagine him, him saying that in any sort of particularly frank or obvious way. Yeah, I can't imagine that being, you know, sort of a big chat they would have had. I can only imagine him being even more diplomatic than the ambassador, frankly, in circumstances like that. So I don't know where that came from and I imagine the palace was furious.

Luke Jones (30:50)

That is it from us. If you want to send us a question, thestoryatthetimes.com is how to reach us.

Manveen Rana (30:56)

The producers today were Olivia Case and Callum Martin. The executive producer was Harry Stott and sound design and music composition were by Malicetto.

Luke Jones (31:06)

She's been Manvin Rana, he's been Luke Jones. And that is it from us. See you tomorrow.

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