Podcast Summary: The Story – Q&A: What we know (and don't know) about Trump’s Iran talks

Date: March 26, 2026
Hosts: Manveen Rana & Luke Jones
Featured Guest: Gabrielle Weiniger (Times Israel Correspondent)

Episode Overview

In this episode, Manveen Rana and Luke Jones dive deep into pressing listener questions about the ongoing tensions between the US (under President Trump) and Iran, focusing on emerging negotiation rumors, shifting Iranian power structures, regional anxieties, the complexity of who actually holds power in Tehran, and the political and economic consequences for Trump at home. Special insight is provided by Times Israel correspondent Gabrielle Weiniger.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Who is Trump Negotiating With?

• [02:11] Listener question: If not Iran’s Supreme Leader, who has authority to negotiate with Trump?
  • Uncertainty prevails due to the targeted killings of much of Iran’s senior leadership.
  • The IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) is increasingly dominant, but their leadership has also been disrupted.
  • Former pragmatic figures like Ali Larajani, who had experience dealing with the West, are eliminated.
  • Emerging negotiator: Mohamed Bagher Ghalibaf – an IRGC stalwart and former mayor of Tehran, "a figure of hatred for a lot of ordinary people," whose power without the old Ayatollah’s backing is questionable. [05:16]
  • No mention of President Pezeshkian in negotiations.
  • Rumors of secret talks in Pakistan, possibly brokered through intermediaries, as direct communication is highly risky.
    • Quote: Manveen: “The Pakistanis are basically brokering talks. They're forwarding text messages between the two parties.” [03:37]
  • The new Supreme Leader (Mujtaba Khamenei), promoted after his father’s assassination, has not been seen – fueling rumors about his health or even survival.

2. Rumors, Uncertainty, and Iranian Messaging

• [04:34] - The rumor mill is rampant, including bizarre distractions (e.g., rumors about the new Supreme Leader’s sexuality).
• Symbolic messages (such as the Supreme Leader’s Nowruz statement being read, not broadcast directly) suggest instability or a power vacuum.

3. The 15-Point Plan & What Iran Would be Asked to Concede

• [07:32] Details as reported:

  • Iran to abandon toll proposals for the Strait of Hormuz; maintain open maritime passage.
  • Destruction and international oversight of nuclear facilities.
  • No enrichment or storage of nuclear material on Iranian soil.
  • Iran to stop using armed proxies (e.g., Hezbollah, Houthis).

• Domestic reception: Such terms could be humiliating and dangerous for any Iranian official agreeing to them, risking regime stability.

  Quote: Manveen: “To sign up to a plan like this, which leaves them weakened and humil…If you’re a leader signing up to that, chances are you're going to be overthrown quite quickly.” [08:24]

4. Who Controls Iran Now? Clerics vs. IRGC

• [09:29] Expert guest Gabrielle Weiniger clarifies the Supreme Leader’s symbolic role vs. IRGC's real control:
  • Mujtaba Khamenei is a figurehead; the IRGC is the actual command and nerve center.
  • President Pezeshkian, seen as a moderate, exerts little real power, further evidenced by his ignored diplomatic overtures. Quote: Gabrielle Weiniger: “The IRGC…are the command center and the nerve center of the current war. So what that really means is…a lessened clerical religious backbone…now that we have the IRGC...I don't see any world in which they concede to Iran's president, particularly because he’s seen as a moderate.” [09:29]
• Manveen expands: Eliminating the religious leader could undermine Iran’s Shia legitimacy and standing in the broader Islamic world.

5. Trump’s Decision-making and US Military Options

• [12:05] Debate over whether Trump will escalate or withdraw (“taco instinct” – acting on impulse).

• His pronouncements seem focused on influencing financial markets.

• Lack of clarity regarding US military capabilities and readiness for a drawn-out conflict.

  Quote: Luke: “Trump has made it very clear...he thinks it's sort of up to him who might end up leading these countries...The trick is in the execution, no pun intended.” [08:49, 09:04]

6. Iran’s Military Capacity and Asymmetric Warfare

• [14:23] Is Iran running out of missiles? Stockpiles depleted but strategic pacing possible.

• Iran’s geography ensures continued leverage—"it doesn't take much to spook ships" in the Strait of Hormuz.

• Iran’s use of drones, cheap mines, and unconventional tactics shows mastery of asymmetric warfare, draining expensive US missile interceptors [15:52].

  Quote: Manveen: “This is an amazing example of asymmetric warfare. They've been very clever…Even when...Donald Trump is saying he's eviscerated their navy and air force...they are still in a position where they hold the upper hand.” [16:18]

7. Could Iran Strike the UK? (and British Defenses)

• [17:33] Iranian missiles purportedly unable to reach the UK – until a failed long-distance launch (Diego Garcia scare) revealed possible extended range.
• UK air defenses inadequate—“no air defenses, nothing like what the Israelis have...we are very reliant on NATO.”
• Greater threat seen from cyber attacks or terror cells than from ICBMs.

8. Why Haven’t Saudi Arabia or the UAE Retaliated?

• [21:03] Regional powers avoid escalation to protect recent economic ambitions (e.g., Saudi’s Neom project) and to ensure long-term stability.

• The Gulf states’ economies would be devastated by all-out war.

• Some rumors of Gulf states pressuring the US for greater action against Iran are denied or not substantiated.

  Quote: Manveen: “None of [the new Saudi economy] will work if there is always a danger you might be attacked by a neighbor...the entire Gulf…realized their economic future lies in stability, and that means not going to war with Iran.” [21:20]

9. War’s Political Impact in the US: Trump’s Base and the Midterms

• [26:27] Listener question: Are rising petrol prices hurting Trump's support?

  • Trump has historically avoided major wars because “gas pump” prices risk votes.
  • US now energy independent, but petrol prices still affect voters and polling.

• Trump’s coalition is fractured:

  • MAGA and blue-collar voters oppose entanglement in “forever wars”—this war is unpopular with them.

  • Old-school Republicans always wanted to confront Iran, but dislike how Trump is executing it.

  • Even John Bolton, a long-time promoter of confronting Iran, thinks Trump’s war is being conducted badly.

    Quote: Manveen: “For that base who voted for him on that mandate, this is a real violation. And the polling does show it's hugely unpopular in America, this war.” [29:57]

• Midterm threats: Loss of congressional control could lead to investigations, impeachment attempts, and Trump’s preemptive moves to subvert voter turnout (polling station ICE agents, stricter ID laws, federal ballot seizures).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the nature of the Iranian regime’s power shift:
  “We have a lessened judiciary, a lessened clerical religious backbone...now we have the IRGC, who have a larger portion of that control.” – Gabrielle Weiniger [09:40]
• On the potential humiliation of Iran in peace terms:
  “Whoever is a new power base in Iran...this isn't tinkering...It is enormous, consequential, potentially humiliating stuff.” – Luke Jones [08:03]
• On Iran's asymmetric warfare:
  “They are very much at the forefront of drone production...this is an amazing example of asymmetric warfare.” – Manveen Rana [16:18]
• On Gulf state caution:
  “None of that will work if there is always a danger that you might be attacked by a neighbor...they realize their economic future lies in stability and that means not going to war with Iran.” – Manveen Rana [21:20]
• On Trump’s motivations:
  “Everything he's saying about the war is about influencing the shape of the markets.” – Manveen Rana [12:46]
• On US political risks:
  “There is a world in which political control switches, and it can really screw him up in a way that would terrify him.” – Luke Jones [32:08]
• On divided US politics:
  “Such a strange coalition...the split is moving in several different ways and is pissing numerous people off for different reasons at the same time.” – Luke Jones [29:38]

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 02:11 – Who is actually negotiating with Trump in Iran?
• 05:16 – Introduction of Mohamed Bagher Ghalibaf as a possible point of contact.
• 07:32–08:03 – Summary of reported terms of the 15-point agreement.
• 09:29–11:09 – Gabrielle Weiniger on IRGC control and the symbolic role of the Supreme Leader.
• 14:23–17:33 – Iranian missile stocks, asymmetric tactics, and potential threats to the UK.
• 21:03–22:46 – Why the Gulf states have refrained from escalating militarily.
• 26:27–29:57 – US domestic political impact, polling, and Trump’s electoral calculus.
• 32:43–33:27 – Risks to US democracy around the midterms.

Takeaways

• The Iranian power structure is deeply fractured and opaque; real negotiating authority may rest with fragmented factions in the IRGC, not traditional or visible state actors.
• The terms being floated by the US appear maximalist and could destabilize any Iranian official who signs them.
• Iran's use of cheap asymmetric tactics has handed it significant leverage over the vastly more powerful US and Gulf militaries.
• The war’s economic consequences—especially on oil prices—pose a real risk to Trump’s domestic popularity and electoral coalition as the US midterms approach.
• Regional powers like Saudi Arabia and the UAE are prioritizing stability and economic plans over retaliation, despite taking damage from Iranian attacks.
• The US response to the war and its impact at home reveals profound and continuing fault lines in American politics, with little consensus even within Trump’s own base.

Hosts’ Tone & Style:
Manveen and Luke blend wry, skeptical humor (“taco instinct”) with sharp, knowledgeable analysis, openly acknowledging the uncertainties and fluidity of both regional and domestic politics.

For Further Questions:
The hosts encourage listeners to send more questions to thestory@thetimes.com