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From the Times and the Sunday Times, this is the story. I'm Luke Jones.
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I think it's the most important election of anywhere that's going to happen this
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year ahead of Hungary's election this weekend. Viktor Sebastian has been writing for the Sunday Times about Viktor Orban, the prime minister and global pinup for the populist right. Victor knew him decades ago.
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His story is full of iron myths. I asked him once, quite late at night in a bar, okay, all of this communism is going to go. What are your hopes for Hungary later on? And when that happened, he said, oh, I want it to be a boring country, just like Austria or Sweden. He always used to say that what he admired in Western Europe was the free press.
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How times change. Having been in power almost 16 years in this second stint, Orban has been accused by some of being an authoritarian.
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There are no separation of powers at all. He's taken over the legal system, he's taken over the national bank, he's taken over the media. I think he's a great opportunist. He'll move with the wind. And the wind is illiberal democracy, as he called it.
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How did this happen? Who is the challenger ahead of Orban in the polls? And why should any of us care?
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Hungary is this tiny landlocked nation of 9 million people. That's really unimportant. Yeah, everyone's heard of Viktor Orban because he's the poster boy for the far right. He's the poster boy for this populism. And I think if he loses, that will send a message way beyond the significance of what happens in Hungary.
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The story today, Hungary's elections explained.
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It's a pretty febrile atmosphere because we've got the elections coming up. Everywhere people are talking about their elections. There are election rallies everywhere.
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Peter Conrady covers Europe for the Sunday Times. He's recently been in Hungary speaking to voters and attending election rallies.
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And the big question is, is Viktor Orban, the prime minister, going to be
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ousted this Sunday and the man challenging him is this Petya Magyar? And you've been to rallies that each of them had been holding. What were they like? How did they differ?
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They were very different indeed. I went first to a rally with Viktor Orban. It was a very formal kind of affair, Victor. There were predominantly old people, but some young ones there as well. It had a kind of an orchestrated air. I used to work in the Soviet Union many years ago. I've seen what official sponsored demonstrations look like. It had some of that kind of a vibe to it. I was then at several rallies by PETA Madyar, the opposition challenger. Very, very different, kind of feel, Much, much more spontaneous, and also probably a slightly younger demographic, although there was a widespread of people there as well.
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And what were the people like who you met there? What did they say about what was
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afoot at the Magyar rally? I spoke to a young man called Robert, who said, for him, the most important reason for getting rid of Orban was corruption. Why are you here? I mean, we want to change.
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We want to change, and the most
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important thing is change, and also that the whole system needs to be replaced.
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Corruption, for example, the first and main problem, the Ausfang. And what about at the Orban rally? Who did you meet there?
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Again, at the Orban rally, I met a variety of people. I mean, I was particularly interested in to meet some young men who. Not even old enough to vote, but they were out there supporting Orban. We want our voice heard. We are not able to vote yet, but as we are beginning to comprehend what choices, the best choices we need, and we are here to represent our country. And I said, well, you know, why do you support him? And essentially they said, because he's a strong leader. And you like Victor Olderband? Absolutely. Why? Why, why, why is he. He's thinking tactically.
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And you were writing in a paper last weekend, Peter, saying that this is one of Central Europe's most consequential elections since the collapse of communism. Can that be right?
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I wrote it. I hope so. It's no exaggeration, I think, because Orban has been in power in Hungary since 2010. That's 16 years. No other EU leader has been there such a long time. And during that period, he's really turned himself into a kind of a thorn in the side of the eu. He's been locked in battles with the majority of other EU members. And if he does go on Sunday, if he is ousted by Peter Magyar, it's going to make a huge difference, not just to Hungary and the way that Hungary is run, but also to the EU as a whole.
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Well, tell us a bit more about Orban then. When did he first come to power? What was his background?
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Viktor Orban is a fascinating character. He's now age 62, which meant that he grew up in communism. Under Communism, he actually joined the Communist Party as a young man, not out of any particular ideological conviction, but because he knew that that's what you needed to do to get ahead. But then come 1989, when you had revolutions sweeping through Central Europe, Eastern Europe, with the fall of the Berlin Wall and so on, he found himself on the side of those people who wanted to get rid of Communism. He joined a small kind of student group called Fides and very quickly rose up within its ranks to become its leader. And one of the most ironic things, I suppose about him is that along the way he went on a scholarship to Oxford University, which was sponsored by a man called George Soros, who Hungarian born, billionaire philanthropist, who has been a great, great financer of liberal causes and has been a real bete noire for Orban.
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Amazing. I didn't realize that he was in his past. And also of course George Soros as well, a figure that you at the centre of a lot of strange conspiracy theories about the left and what's happening there. You mentioned how Orban has been in power as prime minister since 2010, but of course this is his second stint as prime Minister.
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It is indeed, yes. He had his first success in 1998 when he came to power. He was Prime Minister from then until 2002. And it was in that period he was still relatively kind of mainstream centre right. I think in terms of the policies, he didn't kind of pick any battles with Europe. He presided over Hungary's entry into NATO. He was also there for the preparatory work for Hungary's probably even more important entry into the European Union in 2004, which happened after he'd left power. But a lot of the work preparing that had been done during his period as Prime Minister. But things changed when he was re elected in 2010 and they changed really quite quickly.
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In what way?
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He began to develop kind of a different kind of philosophy, what he was to define as illiberal democracy. So what is illiberal democracy? I suppose it's the opposite of individualism. It's the idea that the state has great importance in kind of guiding the people, that the people are important as an entity rather than as individuals. And this kind of goes hand in hand with an embracing of traditional values, obviously Christianity, Catholicism, even though Orban is not a particularly religious man. Nationalism, clearly these various kind of traits that one sees, I think with those across Europe on the nationalist right, people like Marine Le Pen in France or like Giorgio Meloni in Italy. But I think the significant thing with Orban, that is he's been in power for 16 years with an overall majority, even with a so called supermajority, which meant that he has more than two thirds of the seats in Parliament, which allows him to change the constitution to really remake Hungary in His own image. And it gives an idea of what that kind of nationalism, that kind of illiberal democracy can mean in reality and
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what you call changing the constitution and the way the country is set up in his own image, others would call authoritarianism or at least a slide towards it. Is that fair? And in what way is he doing that?
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Maybe Hungary is a curious model because, you know, it's not Russia, it's not Belarus. This is a democracy. Elections are held every four years. Are they fair elections? Well, up to a point in that there is no mass evidence of vote rigging as such. But is it a fair election when a huge amount of the media are kind of controlled either by Orban or by businessmen who are friendly towards him? Not, you know, that's not terribly fair, not ideal. Also, if you look at the electoral system since Orban came to power, there's been a very, very large number of changes to the way it operates, all of which have been introduced to increase the number of seats that his party Fidesz wins in parliament. So, for example, there is an overrepresentation of rural areas compared to urban areas. And because, surprise, surprise, Orban's party is stronger in rural areas and in small towns than it is in Budapest or the other major cities.
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And I take your point that it's not like he is a Vladimir Putin in a different country, but he is very pally with Vladimir Putin and that's been shown particularly recently with the full scale invasion of Ukraine. Orban's been somebody who's tried to frustrate a lot of the EU efforts to help Ukraine and has spoken out quite vociferously against that.
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Why?
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Are you opposing the European aid?
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No, no, it's, it's emotionally, it's, it's, it's, it's tragic. So, so we, all of our heart is with the Ukrainians. We understand how much they suffer. But I'm speaking here as a politicians who should save lives. So the most important thing for the international political communities to save lives, especially when you are convinced, as I do, that there is no chance to win this war. I mean, one could say he's almost behaved like a Russian fifth column within the eu, literally, almost on occasions. I mean, one of the revelations that's come out during the election campaign is that Orban's foreign minister had been actually calling his Russian counterpart after meetings of the EU on sensitive subjects, including on Ukraine, and essentially telling the Russians what had been discussed and how it had been discussed within the EU meeting. You know, very, very strange state of Affairs. And, you know, this has been coupled with moves by Orban consistently to block EU aid for Ukraine. European Union leaders have failed to reach
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an agreement on a new financial aid package for Ukraine, which remains blocked by Hungary.
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One of the most recent gestures on his part has been to hold up a 90 billion euro aid package for Ukraine. And he has painted Volodymyr Zelenskyy as being essentially the enemy of Hungary. One of the most dominant themes at his election rally, the one I went to, was, okay, there was talk of great things he's done for the country, which is only normal, but the main message was, we have to protect ourselves against Zelenskyy. You know, we have to decide what goes on in this country, not Zelenskyy. There are posters all over, all over Hungary, particularly along the streets of Budapest, with a picture of Volodymyr Zelenskyy. And the slogan alongside it is, don't let him have the last laugh.
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And this has all had a financial cost at home, particularly this split with the eu and him not being the best friend of the EU commission, because up until recently, Hungary was a net beneficiary of EU funds. And a lot of that has been frozen.
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Yeah, a lot of that money has been frozen because the EU has been the rest of the eu, or most of the rest of the eu, because he does have a couple of allies in other Central European countries have been pretty appalled at Orban's behaviour, his blocking tactics over Ukraine or help for Ukraine, and also what is seen as his disrespect for the rule of law, that they have blocked funds to Hungary. I mean, one thing that is important also to mention is the allegations of corruption, which are very, very serious indeed, which Viktor Orban himself has obviously denied. He's claimed that he and those around him have not benefited personally from this alleged corruption. That being said, there are a very, very large number of businessmen who are close to Viktor Orban who appear to have done very, very well indeed from EU contracts. And so one of the main complaints of the opposition against him is that he's turned Hungary into a kind of a kleptocratic state where businessmen are enriched by being close to the regime, but in return they have to serve the regime. Sometimes it's perhaps by buying media outlets and turning them into pro or ban media outlets, and sometimes it's by doing
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other kinds of favors and thinking of his influence beyond Hungary's borders. As you mentioned, there are allegations of corruption swirling around him. He doesn't like the eu. There are allegations that he has a certain disrespect for the rule of law. Would you believe that Donald Trump is a fan?
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Donald Trump is indeed a fan. There was a meeting a few weeks back in Budapest of cpac, a kind of a global convention of those on the right, politically, those on the nationalist right or far right one could call them, I suppose. And Donald Trump sent over a recorded video message in which he praised Viktor Orban and effectively urged Hungarians to vote for him. I also want to pay a very special regard to the leader of Hungary, Viktor Orban, who's a great man and highly respected by everybody. He's done a brilliant job of leading and he's a very, very special person.
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So say it does get to the point actually where after many, many years in charge, Orban does go thinking about how he has somewhat remade Hungary and has this big influence outside of it with regards to the populist right elsewhere in the world. It sounds like there's a lot at stake. A lot could change.
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There's a huge amount at stake. I mean, the first question is, if he does lose the election, will he actually go? And even if he, Orban goes, will Orbanism, if one can call it coin, such a word for his philosophy, will that go as well? One of the key things to look out for on Sunday is not just whether Peter Madiar wins or not, but if he does so with a so called supermajority more than the 2/3 of the seats. Because if he does, that will give him carte blanche to remove Orban's appointees from within the system and also to get rid of those constitutional changes that Orban has introduced which have helped buttress this idea of Hungary as an illiberal democracy. But you know, it's no means guaranteed that Maggio will succeed in this.
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So who is this opposition leader who might bring an end to Viktor Orban's time in charge? We'll have more from Peter coming up. Peter, we're talking about the elections that are looming in Hungary and how the tight grip that Viktor Orban has had on the country for many years might not be as tight as it seems with the arrival of this fresh ish opposition leader, Petar Magyar, who you've been telling us a little bit about. Can we get a bit more into him? Incredibly, I don't know how good your Hungarian is. His surname translates as Hungary, is that right?
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It is indeed. I mean, what a gift for a politician. You certainly can't be accused of being unpatriotic if your name actually means Hungarian.
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It's like someone standing here called Peter England or something like that, or, you know, Ronald America over in the us. I mean, it is sort of. I mean, the branding does itself, doesn't it?
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Yeah. And the name of the party is not bad either. Tisa is short for respect and freedom, but it's also the name of a river, one of the main rivers flowing through Central Europe, which leads the way to all sorts of chants at rallies with the. The Tisa is overflowing, the Tis is bursting its banks, All this kind of stuff which gives the idea of a, you know, Mr. Hungary essentially leading this inexorable movement which is just going to take over.
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And Petal Maggio himself, where does he come from? What's his background?
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The interesting thing is that he actually comes from within the system. He has been a member or he was a member of Fidesz for many years. He was a civil servant, he was a diplomat. He was also married for 17 years to Judith Waga, who was a leading Fidesz politician who served as Justice Minister under Orban. So he's a former insider. He knows exactly how Fides works, which you might think would be a disadvantage because you've got someone here who's promising change yet. He was part of the old system, but he knows how Fides works and he knows how Orban works, which has been very useful to him during the campaign to know exactly how to fight against the ruling party.
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And how is he doing that? What is his pitch? What's he saying to voters? He will practically do.
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He will change everything. He will return Hungary to the European mainstream, essentially. He's also very tough on corruption, which he says has become a huge problem in Hungary. And the reason he succeeded where previous opposition leaders who've stood against Orban have failed, is that he's managed to make a link between corruption and. And people's living standards. So the Hungarian economy has not been doing well in the past few years. You know, all the economies in Europe were hit by Covid, obviously, and by the inflation that followed. Many of Hungary's neighbors have bounced back. If you look at Poland is incredible economic growth, really been going from strength to strength. Hungary hasn't. People are beginning to notice it. They're looking around, they're seeing they're being overtaken by Poland, by Slovakia, by the Czech Republic, who've always been sort of on a par with Hungary. For the Hungarians, it's particularly galling that they've been overtaken by Romania, who they've always thought of as being Their kind of poor southern neighbor. And what Beita Madhyar is saying is that we're doing badly because of the corruption. You know, the social services are bad. He's been to hospitals and done broadcasts from hospitals revealing how badly the medical system is going in Hungary. And the message always, each time is, because of corruption, we're suffering. There's a cost of living in crisis because the regime and those close to it are sucking the money away.
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Hmm. And we should be clear, he is polling incredibly well as a result. He's not nibbling at Orban's ankles here. It looks like he could conceivably win.
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He could indeed. I mean, polls do change, and they are expected to tighten in the final days before the election itself. But for most of the campaign, he's had a steady lead of about 9 or 10% or so, with some polls a week or so ago putting his leaders as much as 17%.
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A
Viktor Orban is not going down without a fight, it seems. Tell us about some of the. Well, what would we call them, Dirty tricks that have been brought into play.
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There's been some extraordinary dirty tricks. All manner of accusations against Madyar and against his party of being in league with foreign enemies, with malign interests, being agents of the Ukrainians. I mean, one of the more lurid or most lurid accusations centers on what is thought to be a sex tape showing Madyar with an ex girlfriend at a party at which it's claimed that cocaine was consumed. And, you know, as we're talking now, that tape has yet to emerge. All we've had so far are kind of one still photograph of a bed with some white powder on the bedside table. But Magyar's dealt with it very, very effectively because he's. Rather than trying to ignore it or pretend this doesn't exist, he has said very openly at his rallies, there is this sex tape. Maybe they'll release it, maybe they won't release it. But, hey, you know, I'm a single man. Because he's divorced from his former wife, the Justice Minister, you know, I'm a single man. Why shouldn't I have a girlfriend? But no, I've never taken drugs. And he went specifically to Vienna to a respected drug testing center and came back with a clean bill of health.
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We should say that leaders within Orban's party, Fidesz, have said that they know nothing about the sex tape accusations. Will this election actually be fair in terms of the counting and the rest of it? I mean, are there much concerns about that?
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There are some concerns about what might happen in certain rural areas. You know, there might be some kind of vote stuffing or maybe some kind of vote buying. According to one political analyst I was talking to, there have been cases in the past, for example, where people loyal to the regime will approach voters, will give them a little mobile phone, you know, a burner phone or whatever one could call it, and say, right, go into the polling booth, take a photograph of the ballot slip with your tick beside Fidesz, come back, give us the phone back, show us the photograph and we'll give you money. Now, you know, will that happen? Will that happen? To a great extent, it's very, very difficult to predict. You know, the expectation, I think, is that the election will be largely fair, but, you know, it's not excluded that certain things could happen when the world, in a sense, is looking in the other direction.
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Yeah. So say Magyar does win, what will that mean in terms of the populist right that has become such a fan of Orban around the world, and particularly in Europe as well? Will that actually have any practical impact on the fortunes of other populist right parties or leaders, do you think?
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It will be very significant indeed if he wins and if he wins decisively and everyone accepts that he has won and doesn't attempt to challenge it. So if that does happen, the most immediate effect will be within the EU itself, where Hungary will stop blocking a large number of EU measures, particularly as far as Ukraine is concerned. That doesn't mean that he'll be a pushover. He shows evidence of his Fidesz past to some extent. He is quite a conservative figure. He's against Hungary sending weapons to Ukraine. He's a little bit cool on Ukraine, but he's not going to block the EU from doing what the EU wants to do. So in terms of foreign policy and the workings of Europe, that is going to be very significant indeed. As far as the radical right, the nationalist right, whatever you want to call it, is concerned, it will be a blow because Orban, he's there, he's one of them, he has been in power for such a long time that this will be a defeat for the likes of Marine Le Pen or for Giorgio Meloni. Will it make it ultimately less likely that Le Pen or Jordan Badella, her right hand man, we don't know yet who's going to be the candidate in France for the presidential elections there next year. You know, will it make it less likely that she will win? No, it won't. But it'll show that the right or the radical right can be beaten and that once it's in power, it's not necessarily there forever.
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That was Peter Conrad, a Europe editor for the Sunday Times. You also heard from Victor Sebastian, a journalist and author who writes about Eastern Europe and Russia. That is it from US today. If you've got any thoughts on what you've just heard, maybe have a question. The story@thetimes.com is how to reach us. Today's producers were Sophie McNulty and Olivia Casey. The executive producer was Tim Walklate. Sound design was by Josh Burton and music composition was by Marila Sato. I'm Luke Jones. See you soon,
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Sam.