‘The punishment election’: Is Labour facing a bloodbath in Wales?

Summary

Podcast Summary

The Story by The Times

Episode: ‘The punishment election’: Is Labour facing a bloodbath in Wales?
Date: April 29, 2026
Host: Manveen Rana
Location: Swansea, Wales

---

Episode Overview

This episode explores the dramatic shift in Welsh political loyalties as the traditional Labour stronghold of Swansea faces the upcoming Senate (Welsh Parliament) elections. Amidst palpable disillusionment, economic hardship, and cultural evolution, reporter Manveen Rana visits local communities, pubs, markets, and academic experts to understand why Labour is losing its grip, what the alternatives are, and what devolution has (or hasn’t) delivered in Wales. The narrative uncovers the raw political tensions, shifting identities, and economic anxieties driving the so-called “punishment election.”

---

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Welsh Identity and Community Spirit

• Setting: Manveen Rana starts at the Victoria Inn pub in Mumbles, attending a Welsh language class.
• Local sentiment: Participants express growing pride in Welsh identity, driven by a desire for cultural revival rather than aggressive nationalism.
  • “The older I’m getting, the more Welsh I feel... now I’m home, I just really want everything Welsh that I can.” – Local Resident 3 [03:31]
  • “This is my home. As we say in Welsh, there’s a longin he reis.” – Local Resident 1 [03:53]
• Community & belonging: There is a strong sense of local pride and attachment to place, but it doesn’t translate to nationalist politics.

2. Dissatisfaction with Labour

• Historical backdrop: For over a century, Labour has been the dominant force in South Wales, rooted in mining and working-class communities.
• Current mood: Resentment over NHS failings, business rates, and neglect of rural and non-Cardiff areas is prompting lifelong Labour voters to seek alternatives.
  • “This has been one of the worst governments for business.” – Local Resident 2 [04:32]
  • “I’m even on the point of not going to vote, to be honest with you. I’d feel like a hypocrite putting my cross next to certain people.” – Local Resident 3 [04:56]
• Voters switching allegiances: Many declare intent to vote for Plaid Cymru or Reform, breaking generational Labour traditions.
  • “We’re all voting Plaid Cymru.” – Local Resident 1 [05:23]
  • “I have voted Conservative and I have voted Labour, but this time it’s Plaid.” – Local Resident 2 [05:25]

3. Economic Decline and Its Impact

• Deindustrialization: Once-bustling steelworks at Port Talbot shrank from 18,000 to 2,000 jobs, threatening local identity and stability.
• Regeneration vs poverty: While Swansea’s city center shows signs of investment, outer areas remain deprived, fueling dissatisfaction.
• Small business struggles: Spiraling business rates and costs jeopardize community pubs and markets.
  • "If we didn’t have another business, this place would be shut." – Local Resident 2 [07:46]

4. Political Realignment: Who Benefits?

• Plaid Cymru: Gains from former Labour voters seeking an organized, credible left-leaning alternative—but the shift isn’t driven by surging nationalism.
• Reform Party: Absorbs disenchanted voters, capitalizing on anger towards the establishment. Scandals (like a former leader’s prison term) don’t dent support.
  • “Promises, promises, lies, lies, lies. I will be voting Reform.” – Reform Supporter [05:55], [30:48]
• Conservatives: Seen as out of touch; largely bypassed by anti-Labour sentiment.
• Greens & Lib Dems: Greens benefit more from Labour’s decline; Lib Dems remain largely stagnant.
  • “The Lib Dems... haven’t really capitalized at the decline in Welsh Labour support... The Greens... have kind of been riding this Polanski wave.” – Prof. Matthew Wall [36:13]

5. Disillusionment with Devolution

• Impact: Many Welsh citizens struggle to identify what the Senate does, questioning the effectiveness of devolution after 27 years.
  • “One in four people don’t even know the Senedd runs the NHS.” – Prof. Matthew Wall [25:47]
  • “People... sort of say, ‘what is the purpose of the synod?’” – Tom Thomas [29:47]
• Reform’s rhetoric: Hints at abolishing the Senate resonate with 15–20% of voters, reflecting widespread disenchantment.
  • “Reform... are seen by those kind of voters as the party most likely to go in that direction [abolition].” – Prof. Matthew Wall [35:18]

6. Complex New Voting System

• Changes: Increase from 60 to 96 Senate members, new boundaries, and a proportional closed-list voting system—yet most voters are unaware of the changes.
  • "I would say, generally, people aren’t aware that the electoral system has changed." – Prof. Matthew Wall [26:41]

7. National and Local Issues Intertwined

• Cost-of-living crisis, NHS waiting lists, and falling educational attainment are foremost in voters’ minds—often overriding traditional party loyalty.
  • “NHS waiting lists are longer. Education... are worse. Economy, there’s no major improvement.” – Prof. Matthew Wall [20:53]
• Brexit legacy: Swansea’s Brexit vote opens space for right-wing populism (Reform).
• Rugby and culture under threat: Loss of funding and identity in local sports teams compounds sense of decline.
  • “Whichever club disappears, it’ll create a huge hole in the community. If you take out that identity, the community game will suffer, and Welsh rugby will probably go into term or decline.” – Grant Bernie [14:25]

---

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “This year I just thought, you know what? I’d feel like a hypocrite putting my cross next to certain people.”
  — Local Resident 3 [04:56]

• “I think for people in Port Talbot, [the steel works] is almost everything to them. If you don’t work there, you know somebody who works there.”
  — Grant Bernie [11:51]

• “NHS is in a state. If you can get to A&E... you’re sitting there 8, 10, 12 hours and they’re disgusting.”
  — Local Resident 2 [04:45]

• “I think first and foremost, there’s a serious kind of disillusionment in the Welsh electorate.”
  — Prof. Matthew Wall [20:53]

• “One in four people don’t even know the Senate runs the NHS, which is what it spends about half of its budget on.”
  — Prof. Matthew Wall [25:47]

• “Promises, promises, lies, lies, lies. So I will be voting Reform.”
  — Reform Supporter [05:55, 30:48]

• “Years ago, Labour was a working man’s government. That’s why we trusted Labour, but Labour’s not Labour anymore.”
  — Local Resident 3 (Sweet shop owner) [34:09]

• “This does seem to be a kind of punishment election that they’re coming into in Wales as much as anywhere else.”
  — Prof. Matthew Wall [37:41]

---

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 01:32: Introduction at Victoria Inn, Mumbles; Welsh language class; sense of local identity
• 04:32: Business owners, NHS frustrations; generational Labour shift
• 05:55: Early Reform supporters declare intentions; voter alienation
• 09:00-13:41: Economic past and present—steel works, job losses, rugby under threat (Grant Bernie interview)
• 15:39: Taxi/Uber driver describes economic hardship and anti-establishment feelings
• 17:55: Prof. Matthew Wall contextualizes Labour’s decline; Plaid and Reform’s rise; polling insights
• 20:53: Discussion of core issues: NHS, education, economy
• 25:47: "Has devolution worked?" - the Senate’s invisible role, public disconnect
• 26:41: Voting system changes explained
• 28:59: Market interviews: more disaffected voters; “endless committees and reports”
• 30:48: More working-class Reform supporters and their reasons
• 33:15: Sweet shop owner—cost of living, loss of trust in all parties
• 35:02: What does Reform want? Party positions on devolution/abolition
• 36:09: Greens vs. Lib Dems in contest for disaffected Labour voters
• 37:05: Prof. Wall: Why Plaid is succeeding (not nationalism, but credibility)
• 37:41: Westminster elections—impact from Welsh results, “punishment election” motif

---

Conclusion

Takeaway:
The episode paints a vivid, nuanced picture of Welsh political volatility in 2026. Labour’s century-old grip is jeopardized by public frustration over stagnant services, economic decline, and general cynicism toward politics and devolution itself. Plaid Cymru and Reform emerge as the main beneficiaries—but for fundamentally different reasons. The episode also addresses profound confusion and apathy about the Welsh Parliament, even as dissatisfaction transforms the electoral battleground. The “punishment election” theme underscores a larger, global revolt against incumbents and political establishment, now sweeping through the Welsh valleys.

---

For more in-depth insights—and to capture these compelling voices first-hand—listen to the full episode of The Story by The Times.

Transcript

[Weight Loss by Hers Advertiser]

If you felt stuck trying to lose weight, you're not alone. Enter Weight Loss by Hers. It's designed to support you in reaching your goals and hers now offers access to an affordable range of FDA approved GLP1 medications, including the Wegovy Pill and the Wegovy Pen. Even better, with a range of affordable GLP1 options, hers makes it simple to find an approach that fits your needs and your budget. If eligible, you'll get a treatment plan personalized to you and unlimited dosage changes as needed. It's weight loss designed to work with your life. Ready to reach your goals? Visit forhers.com eligible to get personalized affordable care that gets you that's F O R h e r s.com eligible forhers.com Eligible weight loss by hers is not available in all 50 states. WeGovy is the registered trademark of Novo Nordisk as To get started and learn more, including important safety information, WeGovy clinical study information and restrictions, visit forhers.com@brookfield we

[Brookfield Advertiser]

believe you can own wealth that's measured in generations. For 125 years, we've built long term wealth through expertise, discipline and a clear vision for the future, providing investors access to alternative strategies built for what's Next Brookfield Own what's Next learn [e-mail] this is not an offer to sell or investment advice. Investing involves risks, including loss of capital. Past performance is not indicative nor a guarantee of future results. Please review performance and offering materials before investing.

[Manveen Rana]

From the Times and the Sunday Times this is the story. I'm Manveen Rana. I know I'm supposed to start with Borodar, but then I'm lost beyond that. So you're gonna have to help. Oh, is it? Oh God, it's the afternoon. I knew I'd get it wrong. So I'm in a pub in the charming seaside village of Mumbles, just along the coast from Swansea in South Wales. In fact, if you head up from the beach along the streets of bright yellow, blue and peach coloured houses, you'll find it the bright pink Victoria Inn. It's surprisingly busy on this Monday afternoon in April and a group of people have gathered to learn Welsh, including me. How do I say welcome to Swansea.

[Local Welsh Resident 1]

It's lovely to see you.

[Manveen Rana]

Oh, it's lovely to see you too. I feel like I'm learning slowly. I'm too terrified to pronounce things, but I'm this is a joy. Who wouldn't want to spend a Monday afternoon taking a language class in a pub over drinks? And it Brings together some wonderful characters from the local community who come here every week and talk about absolutely everything, usually in Welsh, and they're passionate about being part of the revival of this once dying language.

[Local Welsh Resident 2]

I'm here to learn, yeah, And I'm useless. I'm at the very bottom of the pile. But I'm learning every week and it's. And it's great fun.

[Manveen Rana]

What made you want to learn at this stage?

[Local Welsh Resident 2]

I'm proud to be Welsh. I really wish I'd started learning Welsh earlier. It's a pride thing.

[Local Welsh Resident 3]

The older I'm getting, the more Welsh I feel, because I travelled a lot and I wanted to be anything but Welsh, I'll be honest with you. And now I'm home, I just really want everything Welsh that I can.

[Manveen Rana]

Learning the language means that people here are feeling more Welsh than ever, but it's through a sense of shared pride rather than any kind of populist nationalism.

[Local Welsh Resident 1]

A I went to work in England and I've come back to Wales. This is my home. As we say in Welsh, there's a longin he reis. The word heereis means long in. Come back to Wales.

[Manveen Rana]

I get it, there's a real sense of community and belonging here. But I'm not just here to brush up my Welsh dioch. I'm here because in just over a week's time, Swansea, along with the rest of Wales, will be voting in the elections for the Senate, the Welsh Parliament. And despite the cheery vibe here, politically speaking, things are looking less rosy.

[Local Welsh Resident 2]

Wales has traditionally been very Labour and they had a landslide in the election. We own this pub, we own another publishing business as well. And I can honestly say it's been one of the worst governments for business.

[Manveen Rana]

The NHS is in a state. If you go to ae, if you can get to A E, if you can get an ambulance, you're sitting there 8, 10, 12 hours and they're disgusting.

[Local Welsh Resident 3]

I'm even on the point of not going to vote, to be honest with you. And I come from a devout Labour family, always. This year I just thought, you know what? I'd feel like a hypocrite putting my cross next to certain people.

[Manveen Rana]

This part of South Wales has long been a neighbour heartland. Its mining communities gave birth to the Labour movement and it's remained staunchly Labour for more than a century. But not anymore.

[Local Welsh Resident 1]

We're all voting Plaid Cymru.

[Local Welsh Resident 2]

I'm just fed up with everything at the moment. I have voted Conservative and I have voted Labour, but this time it's Plaid

[Professor Matthew Wall]

Cymru Party for Wales.

[Manveen Rana]

We've been traveling across Swansea to find out what people are thinking in the run up to this pivotal Welsh election. And with support for Labour plummeting, it's left the door open for parties like Clyde Cymru and Reform.

[Reform Party Supporter]

I will not be voting Labour again. Promises, promises, lies, lies, lies. So I will be voting Reform.

[Manveen Rana]

So how did Labour manage to alienate so many of its loyal supporters? What would defeat here mean for the party in Westminster? And 27 years on, has devolution worked? The story today in English and Welsh,

[Grant Bernie]

how Labour lost Wales.

[Manveen Rana]

Normally, local elections don't cause much of a stir here. In the six Senate elections that have taken place since devolution, turnout has never been higher than 50%. But with such a febrile political landscape, with Keir Starmer's leadership hanging by a thread and less mainstream parties like the Greens and Reform leaping up the polls, the stakes couldn't be higher. So what's influencing the way people here will vote? Back in the Victoria Inn, we heard a lot of opinions, including the pub landlords. Which way will you go in the local elections? In the elections in a few weeks time?

[Local Welsh Resident 2]

I haven't got a clue. I won't be voting Labour again, I know that much.

[Manveen Rana]

Have you always voted Labour in the past?

[Local Welsh Resident 2]

Yeah, always, always. And this will be the first year that I won't be voting Labour.

[Manveen Rana]

Wow.

[Local Welsh Resident 2]

And I think there's a lot of people like me. What's frustrating, we had both Labour. I invited them to come to the pub because I was so disgusted about the business rates. Our rateable value went from 8,000 to £32,000.

[Manveen Rana]

Oh, wow.

[Local Welsh Resident 2]

So I said, right, let's go and speak to somebody. Who do I speak to? And we got the Labour MP from the Senate down. She's lovely lady but she said, I can't do anything to help you. So I got the other Labour MP down from the Westminster, another lovely lady. She apparently knows the Chancellor on first name basis. Nothing happened. If we didn't have another business, this place would be shut. And it's at the heart of the community and there's places like this are shutting because of what's happening.

[Manveen Rana]

And you think the same?

[Local Welsh Resident 1]

Yes, I've changed my mind and I think Wales has not had a great service under Labour for the past 20 odd years. You know, the middle of Cardiff gets it all and parts of Wales, rural Wales, you know, is not getting their fresh air. I think dissatisfaction with the mainstream Labour Party has meant the Plyde is now in its ascendancy I mean, for Kerr Hardy, you know, the big Labour, big hitters. Wonderful. And Nyron Bevan, these people are pygmies compared to.

[Manveen Rana]

It's not just frustration with the current Labour Party that's shaping the way people will vote here. We're here on a bright spring day and you can't help but be taken in by the city. The vast sandy beaches, the crumbling medieval castle in the city centre and the glistening modern. But while the centre of Swansea has clearly received investment and has had a programme of regeneration, there are still hugely deprived areas in this part of South Wales. Much of that can be traced back to the loss of the industries that this region was once famous for. Coal and steel. The Port Talbot Steelworks just down the road, is still the UK's largest, but whilst it once employed 18,000 people, it's now closer to 2,000 and the threat of more job losses is still looming.

[Grant Bernie]

We're standing on Swansea seafront. Looking out to our right, you can see Mumbles Lighthouse and the start of the Goa. If you look across to the left, across Swansea Bay, you can see right across to Tartar Steelworks in Patalbat. And follow, follow the sea around to the river Nathan. Background to Swansea.

[Manveen Rana]

And I have to say, it's breathtakingly beautiful, you know, surrounded by a bit of sea mist. Even the steel works look quite pretty on a day like this.

[Grant Bernie]

Steamworks always looks pretty to me. I spent eight years and I love the place.

[Manveen Rana]

Grant Bernie is quintessentially South Welsh. On top of his 30 years at the Port Talbot Steelworks, he's also the head of the Ospreys supporters club. That's the local rugby team. Historically, Wales is most successful, but the Ospreys, like the steelworks, are currently under threat due to funding issues. Welsh rugby is trying to cut the big four regional teams down to three. And it feels like a cloud of uncertainty hangs in low over this part of Wales. Industrially, culturally and electorally, you've seen industries

[Grant Bernie]

slowly disappear or shrink over the years. But what we have seen is, especially when you look at areas like, you know, the front in Swansea, in this area, you've seen investment doing. The place does actually look modern and new and, and a really nice place to live.

[Manveen Rana]

You describe the steel works as being kind of the beating heart of this, this place. You know, you've watched it growing up. You worked there for 30 years when you first went to work there. Just describe what it was like and its role in the community.

[Grant Bernie]

I think for people in Portolbert, it is almost everything to Them, you know, if you don't work there, you know someone who works there, you've got a family member who works there. And that slowly spreads out to, you know, the bigger area, to Bridgend, to Neath. The Swansea. Steel has been a big part of, you know, Welsh culture for years. You can say what Land of Song, coal, steel, rugby sort of sums up Wales, does it?

[Manveen Rana]

The pillars of what it is to be Welsh. You clearly loved working there too. I mean, you talk about it with great pride. Was there a sense of that?

[Grant Bernie]

I loved the place. I started life in research and development and then spent most of my career in the steel plant, which is currently being rebuilt. But yeah, the bit that I owned and the bit that I loved, yeah, it's been pulled apart and it's time for the next generation to take it on to greater things, hopefully.

[Manveen Rana]

Well, give us a sense of that because for a lot of people listening, you know, if you don't live around here, you only ever hear about Portal, but in the headlines and it always seems to be in a state of crisis, perma crisis. People are being sacked or just being saved at the last minute. And where are things now?

[Grant Bernie]

As it stands now, the heavy end has been shut down, but the place is still producing. So tartar, an important slab and hot roll coil from around the world and rolling them in the plants they've got in South Wales and up in Corby and Hartlepool.

[Manveen Rana]

Is there still sort of a sense of confidence about it in the area? Are people. Do people feel like they could have a career there? Is there a sense that you could sort of trust your future to the place?

[Grant Bernie]

It must be difficult right now because, yes, there have been redundancies. Tata did their best to try and relocate other people into other areas. All the VR packages help people retire early, like myself. It's obviously hard for a few people who have found themselves out of work and might not have got anything else yet. But yeah, people are trying to do their best by the people who've lost their jobs.

[Manveen Rana]

And you mentioned the fourth pillar of being Welsh around here, certainly rugby. Tell us a bit about that. Because just behind us we've got the sea in front of us, but just behind us we've got St Helens of rugby and cricket ground. What's happening?

[Grant Bernie]

The Ospreys have been moved out of the Swansea.com Stadium which they shared with Swansea.

[Manveen Rana]

There's a big team here.

[Grant Bernie]

Yeah. Because of the WRU's decisions to pull a deal keeping it four regions and going to three.

[Manveen Rana]

So this is Welsh rugby at large.

[Grant Bernie]

This is Welsh rugby at large. One of the four elite teams will be going. That's the WRU's plans. There's a huge amount of uncertainty.

[Manveen Rana]

If it doesn't happen, if they do end up scrapping it and going down to three or maybe even two teams, what would that mean? I mean, in terms of national pride,

[Grant Bernie]

local pride, whichever club disappears, it'll create a huge hole in the community. If you take out that identity, the community game will suffer and Welsh rugby will probably go into like, term or decline if that happens.

[Manveen Rana]

You're so embedded in this community and you're clearly sort of, you know, quite an optimist. How are you viewing these elections? I mean, which way are you going to go?

[Grant Bernie]

I'm left of centre. I could not bring myself to go anywhere near reform. I could not bring myself to go as far as the Conservatives. Anything else may be fair game. I think world politics are overtaking local politics at the moment. Is there a positive vibe at the moment? Doesn't feel like it really doesn't feel like it. It's almost like, what's the next bad news that's coming?

[Manveen Rana]

Grant is a great cheerleader for this area and really believes in its future. But even he acknowledges things aren't working. They do need some form of political change. This has been a Labour heartland for more than a century, but it was also an area that voted for Brexit. So some people here are now starting to look to reform for an answer.

[Philip, Uber Driver]

My name's Philip, I'm an Uber driver. All I'm saying is I haven't voted 55 and last year I voted for the first time, basically laid back Conservative, got no confidence at all, any of them. And I think that Nigel Farage is the best of a bunch. I think I trust him more than the others. Look at Donald Trump. He could come to this country, he could sort our country out, probably in a couple of terms. He'd probably send us Wall Mount or something.

[Manveen Rana]

I mean, there is that.

[Philip, Uber Driver]

I think if Donald Trump was here, I think we'd pay low electric and gas prices and I think we'd probably be more financially better off.

[Manveen Rana]

And is that why you feel so let down by successive governments? Is it because you're paying so much in bills?

[Philip, Uber Driver]

Because massively, yeah, my council tax has gone up, I think paying like 2,700 quid for council tax, probably. If you're in London, then obviously that's probably nothing, but down here it means a lot. I know I'm paying council tax. I know, I'm paying car tax. Roads are horrendous. So I know that comes down to the local governments and everything, but I just don't trust anybody.

[Manveen Rana]

Does having the sennus make you feel like you have a bit more say?

[Philip, Uber Driver]

No. I listen to some of the Welsh politicians then, and I just think that they're so out of touch. Remember when they've done the winter allowance for the heating allowance for the elderly, they took that away and then three months later, politicians had a pay rise. How could you trust anybody like that?

[Manveen Rana]

We can jump out here. Thank you. To find out what's making the political weather in this part of the world, we've come to Swansea University. There are seagulls overhead and we're about to head into the James Callahan Building, aptly named after a Labour politician who made it to Prime Minister and represented a constituency in the south of Wales in Cardiff. And we're here to speak to a sophologist who's tracking these elections closely.

[Professor Matthew Wall]

My name is Professor Matthew Wall. I'm a professor of politics at Swansea University. I'm the principal investigator of the Welsh Election Study. What we're doing at the moment is horse race politics, which is a gamified forecasting tournament. So We've got over 400 users who are making progress projections like which party is most likely to win the most seats? Will there be a majority?

[Manveen Rana]

So it's all to play for here. It sounds like it's quite an exciting election.

[Professor Matthew Wall]

It's an extremely exciting election to cover. I mean, obviously where we are in Swansea right now has historically been a kind of a heartland for the Labour Party or Welsh Labour over time, but that's opened up now in a way, right across the country. So, like, an amazing result came through in the Caerphilly by election recently, recently, which saw labour receiving like 11% of the vote that time, and Plyde Cymru coming through the middle. And this Ply Cymru devouring of a lot of the Labour vote is something that's happening, as far as we can tell, across Wales. You never know until the actual votes get counted. But they do look likely to top the poll, even in places here like Swansea. Clyde really always struggled in this area, especially because very few people would speak Welsh as a first language here, so they've always struggled with that language issue. But looking at the polling, people have just abandoned the Welsh Labour Party and are going towards parties like Plyde, the Green Party and so on. That's the dynamic of the campaign.

[Manveen Rana]

Tell us a bit more about that because, you know, as you say, this is a campus which is a great reminder of how staunch this area has been in its support for Labour. How long has this area been Labour?

[Professor Matthew Wall]

So certainly across all of the Senate elections, that sort of deeper historical rooting also goes with a sort of an opposition or an anti. Towards the Conservative Party. And going back to the kind of strikes in the 1980s that took place, what we've seen now is like. Yeah, yeah, reform have come up, though. And what's been really interesting is how reform haven't had to pay the same sort of identity or like, reputational tax as the Conservative Party, albeit they're very similar ideologically in a lot of ways. If you look at the two parties manifestos, they're nearly indistinguishable for this Senate election. But reforms seem to have been able to eat into this base in a way that was never really possible for the Welsh. Conservative. Reform do have their history here. I mean, their previous leader, Nathan Gill, is actually in prison at the moment for having accepted payments. Right. For saying things in the European Parliament that history changes.

[Manveen Rana]

Payments from Russia.

[Professor Matthew Wall]

Yeah, indeed. And yet that doesn't seem to have really dampened the enthusiasm, really, for the party.

[Manveen Rana]

You'd think that would be a huge scandal.

[Professor Matthew Wall]

You would think so. Right. And certainly it is something that they are being, you know, when their leader is doing TV work, is being forced to talk about a little bit. But by and large, it doesn't seem to have kind of tainted or tanked their support. Right. And so the kind of puzzle of reform is how do they get around things that are normally more difficult for other parties? But that's a puzzle. We're all asking in the UK at

[Manveen Rana]

the moment, what are the issues that are determining the way people are voting going into this election?

[Professor Matthew Wall]

I think first and foremost, there's a serious kind of disillusionment in the Welsh electorate. The nhs, the waiting lists are longer. Education, our attainment in terms of literacy and numeracy are worse. Economy, there's no major improvement performance that we can kind of point to. And over time, that record has become more and more difficult to defend. I think after 2024, there was a sense of, well, we have labor now and we'd say here in Wales, both ends of the M4. But that hasn't really produced much or certainly enough that people can kind of feel like things are turning around. So I think that disillusionment with the status quo is probably the most important driver to understand. Especially you might look at the increased support for Plaid and adduce. Well, there's a huge surge towards independence or pro independence positions, but that's not really the case. Instead, plied are just to the left of Labor. They're kind of the credible alternative and they've been really downplaying their independence stance across the campaign. So they've been very, very keen to say, well, we are for independence, but in the medium term it's not something we're going to pursue in the next term. It does seem to me to be primarily an election about kind of disaffection, about people feeling like devolution hasn't really delivered the things that they were promised and kind of looking for somewhere else to go.

[Manveen Rana]

Coming up what has devolution actually achieved in Wales? What effect will a new voting system have on the race and is there any way back for Labour? All that and more in a moment.

[Brookfield Advertiser]

At Brookfield, we invest in the thing behind the thing behind the Next Big thing. Our focus across infrastructure, energy, real estate, private equity and credit is helping to build the backbone of the global economy. We combine deep operational expertise with disciplined long term investing, uncovering value and partnering alongside clients to shape tomorrow's economy today. Brookfield Own what's next? Learn [e-mail] this is not an offer to sell or investment advice. Investing involves risks, including loss of capital.

[Weight Loss by Hers Advertiser]

If you felt stuck trying to lose weight, you're not alone. Enter Weight Loss by Hers. It's designed to support you in reaching your goals, and hers now offers access to an affordable range of FDA approved GLP1 medications, including the Wegovy Pill and the Wegovy Pension. Even better, with a range of affordable GLP1 options, hers makes it simple to find an approach that fits your needs and your budget. If eligible, you'll get a treatment plan personalized to you and unlimited dosage changes as needed. It's weight loss designed to work with your life. Ready to reach your goals? Visit fourhers.com eligible to get personalized affordable care that gets you that's F o r h E-R-S.com eligible forhers.com eligible weight loss by hers is not available in all 50 states. WeGovy is the registered trademark of Novo Nordisk as To get started and learn more, including important safety information, WeGovy clinical study information and restrictions, visit fourhers.com A

[Manveen Rana]

Better Help AD hold on one second. I just need to. What if you had a room where no one interrupts, no notifications, no expectations, just space to talk with BetterHelp Therapy happens in a space that's yours. Visit betterhelp.com randompodcast for 10% off your first month of online therapy. In this part of South Wales. As people prepare to vote in the Senate elections, many seem to be questioning what the Welsh Parliament is even for. I asked Matthew Wall, sophologist at Swansea University, if devolution has worked. We've been talking to people around Swansea who will say they really care about local issues and what the council is doing. They're very scared about international issues and are worried about where the government in Westminster is. But in a way they don't notice the Senate so much. They'll notice if it does something about the speed, the 20 mile an hour. 20 mile an hour speed limits. But, you know, that's kind of where they feel the impact, whereas you'd think they'd notice it more given they're doing health and education in so many of the biggest parts of government that actually affect our day to day living. All these years on, has devolution actually worked?

[Professor Matthew Wall]

Yeah, I think it's actually relatively difficult to follow the day in, day out of the Senate because there's just not as much media space dedicated to that as there would be towards what's happening in Westminster. I think, secondly, it's just a lot of the decisions that are made are kind of difficult unless you have a direct comparison point with somebody, for example, living in England. So we have free prescriptions here in Wales. That's one of the big achievements of devolution. But it's kind of hard to bear that in mind just living here day to day. Something like one in four people don't even know the sened ed runs the nhs, which is like, what it spends about half of its budget on. So, like, making that connection is kind of just a difficult thing for people to do here in Wales.

[Manveen Rana]

There are so many reasons why this is a particularly hard election to try and work out what's happening, not least because there have been boundary changes in the run up to this and also an entirely new voting system. Tell us all about that.

[Professor Matthew Wall]

Well, so one of the biggest projects of the previous Senate has been a project of institutional reform. So they've increased the number of members of the Senate from 60 to 96 and they've instituted a new voting system, as you say, with new boundaries in operation. I would say, generally, people aren't aware that the electoral system has changed. But the new voting system is a proportional representation, closed list system with 16 constituencies, each of which apportion six seats. Right. The formula that is used to do that is Called the de Hunt formula. It's relatively simple for voters. It just creates a little bit of chaos in terms of how proportional it

[Manveen Rana]

is you've been describing, sort of the general trends do seem to be against Labour, that has always had such a strong base here. Is that just because, as we're seeing across the world, there's a real sort of revolt against incumbents and here, not only are Labour in power in Westminster, they've been in power in the Senate for a very long time now.

[Professor Matthew Wall]

It's difficult to know exactly what's happening because there are so many. Like you mentioned, there's a kind of a global context, there's a UK context and there's a Welsh context, all kind of intermingling at the same time. But more generally, I think this kind of feeling that, well, what have we got in our hands that devolution has brought us? And it not being that much.

[Manveen Rana]

Hello, can I get some Welsh cakes? Keep the office happy. We've spent a couple of days around Swansea now, and as you walk through the city, there's a lot of evidence of investment. There's a swanky marina, smart restaurants and seaside cafes. There's the Mumbles, quaint seaside village, incredibly pretty, where a lot of people go to retire. It's only when you come here to places like the indoor market in the centre of town, where a number of the stalls have had to close recently because business is so tough and the costs of operating are going up, that you really get a sense there are a lot of people here for whom devolution and the Labour government really aren't working. Hi there. Sorry to disturb you, we're just talking to people about the local elections. Do you want to tell us your name?

[Tom Thomas]

My name's Tom Thomas.

[Manveen Rana]

Great name.

[Tom Thomas]

There's a story, but I won't bore you with it.

[Manveen Rana]

What are you thinking as we go into the local elections?

[Tom Thomas]

Obviously, big change, like 27 years of labour rule more than likely to come to an end. I think there's concern about the rise of reform, really. Probably a result of people's frustrations. On a personal level, I probably am interested in seeing if, as the polls are to be believed, plied do win with a sort of coalition result with Labour. What that will result in.

[Manveen Rana]

Is that where you'll vote?

[Tom Thomas]

Yeah, more than likely, yeah. Towards Plyde. In the last election, I voted Labour, but that was more due to the nature of the voting system to keep reform out.

[Manveen Rana]

I've been quite surprised by the number of people who feel that devolution hasn't really worked for Wales. You know, they don't quite know what the Senate does. Do you think that's true? I mean people have even talked about scrapping it, seeing it as like a wasted layer of government.

[Tom Thomas]

Yeah, again, I mean not to give them too much of a kick in but I sort of feel like that's the responsibility of Labour in Wales. They've just been really sort of more scared of doing the wrong thing rather than in action. And like as you were saying about like that sort of led to people sort of saying what is the purpose of the synov? Because it seems endlessly any issue or problem has been met with well we'll make a committee or we'll make a report and we'll sort of come check back in 10 years time and we'll see where we are. And as I said earlier, that's sort of leading people to sort of say well let's go for some sort of wild alternative like reformer promising to blow up the system and do things differently.

[Manveen Rana]

Hello. Hello. Well we're just talking to people about the local elections. How are you feeling about them? Do you know which way you'll vote?

[Reform Party Supporter]

Absolutely, absolutely I know which way I'll vote. I will not be voting Labour again. I've come from a Labour family but Labour has let the whole country down. The whole country promises, promises, lies, lies, lies. So I will be voting reform.

[Manveen Rana]

Really?

[Reform Party Supporter]

Yes.

[Manveen Rana]

And what, what's made you go to reform?

[Reform Party Supporter]

I think he's more for the public. I think he's more, he's looking towards helping old age pensioners that has contributed into the country and Labour has just taken everything from them.

[Manveen Rana]

Do you know a lot of people who are looking at reform as the answer now?

[Reform Party Supporter]

Ask my mother in law.

[Manveen Rana]

Yes, yes, definitely reform.

[Local Welsh Resident 3]

Everyone we speak to, they're all saying reform.

[Manveen Rana]

That's a big shift for this area.

[Reform Party Supporter]

It's a big shift, especially coming from a working class family to go that way because we've always been Labour, Labour, Labour. But I just feel no matter what parties in has been in over the last 20 years, I just feel they've let us down tremendously. I mean the health, the waiting lists. I've recently had an operation, my, I've waited three years.

[Manveen Rana]

What are you hoping reform will be able to do?

[Reform Party Supporter]

Look after the old age pensioners which he has promised. Let's hope he'll follow that through and also stop all the illegal immigrants that's coming in. We should have a certain amount but we just opened up the floodgates to a Lot.

[Manveen Rana]

Is that a real issue here in Swansea?

[Reform Party Supporter]

I think so, yes. I think so.

[Manveen Rana]

Thank you so much for talking to us. Thank you. Hello.

[Local Welsh Resident 3]

Are you looking for the cockles in Alphabet?

[Manveen Rana]

We should be. When in Swansea? We're just talking to people about the local elections. Will you be voting?

[Local Welsh Resident 3]

Oh, yes, I'll resorts.

[Manveen Rana]

Which way?

[Local Welsh Resident 3]

Well, if I just say my father was a minor, so you know where we voted for then.

[Manveen Rana]

Will he be voting labor this time? Because you'll be the first person I've met in Swansea probably because my father.

[Local Welsh Resident 3]

For my father's sick, he suffered so much and all that terrible strike. So if Dad's looking down, you know I'm all right.

[Manveen Rana]

A lot of people here seem to be turning away from labor now, though. Yes, I know that.

[Local Welsh Resident 3]

I see that. I can see that. But I'll stick with them.

[Manveen Rana]

Oh, old fashioned sweet shop. Giant canisters of bon bons and hair drops. Do you mind if we just asked a couple of quick questions about the local elections? How are you feeling about them?

[Local Welsh Resident 3]

Don't trust any of them. I mean, Labour used to be Labour many years ago, but it's certainly not now. It's not for the people. I mean, I'm on my own now and it's so hard. They just don't want to know.

[Manveen Rana]

Will you vote for anyone?

[Local Welsh Resident 3]

Maybe Lib Dem, but I don't know yet.

[Manveen Rana]

Has Labour been good for businesses for.

[Local Welsh Resident 3]

No, I don't think so. A lot of businesses have gone under. I mean, there's a business went over there, there's a business went over there, there's two or three business went in High street, you know, it's cruel. The prices of. Everything's going up and up and up and up and people are struggling, you know, sometimes as people sort of cry in. I've seen them crying because they're so upset because they can't manage for you.

[Manveen Rana]

What has the toughest thing been? Is. Is it. Is it taxes? Is it the price? The cost of living?

[Local Welsh Resident 3]

The cost of living are not listening to us. Let's say years ago, labor was a working man's government. That's why we trusted Labor. But Labor's not Labor anymore.

[Manveen Rana]

That's something we heard a lot in Swansea. But if people are turning away from Labour, who will they vote for? Plaid Cymru or Reform? And what would their policies mean for the area? I went back to Matthew Wall at Swansea University. It's interesting that Reform, who do seem to be doing well here, are talking about not only making this a vote on Starmer they also talk a lot about the failures of devolution. Where do they stand on that?

[Professor Matthew Wall]

Their basic stance is to make it work better, make it work better for Welsh people. They have had a lot of spokespeople and candidates saying that they would consider getting rid of it, but that's not their official policy now going into the

[Manveen Rana]

election, but hints of it from some of their candidates.

[Professor Matthew Wall]

Yeah, well, I think there are quite a lot of people in Wales who want to get rid of the. Yeah, so anything from 15 to 20%, depending on what kind of opinion polling you're looking at, and reform has kind of managed to ride on it. Even though, like, officially they haven't committed to abolishing the Senate or anything like that. They still, I think, are seen by those kind of voters as the party most likely to go in that direction over time.

[Manveen Rana]

It's so surprising that so many people don't seem to think devolution has been worthwhile here. In terms of the Conservatives, you know, they haven't picked up on that trick. How do they stay in this election?

[Professor Matthew Wall]

Yeah, well, it's quite existential for the Welsh Conservatives, so, you know, they have been the victim, if you like, of reform's success. If you look at some of the projections now, we're seeing them on one or two seats, some are seeing them on four or five or six.

[Manveen Rana]

And how about the Lib Dems and the Greens? Are they making much impact?

[Professor Matthew Wall]

So the Lib Dems, I would say, have been the one party that hasn't really kind of capitalised at the decline in Welsh Labour support that we've seen. So they've kind of remained in that 5 to 6 to 7% territory, which isn't a great place to be, be in this system. So they're really struggling to have anyone elected. The Greens, on the other hand, have kind of been riding this Polanski wave, and they're again, right at this kind of threshold where for some projections they're up to like, 10 seats, for others are two or three. The Greens and Ply Cymru have been the ones really capitalizing on this kind of withdrawal of support from Welsh Labour.

[Manveen Rana]

Tell us about Ply Cymru, because they do seem to be the ultimate winners in all of this. Where has that come from? Is that just disillusionment with Labour? Is it fear of reform? Is it a surging nationalism or is it all of the above? What's influencing their vote around here?

[Professor Matthew Wall]

I think all of. Well, I think apart from surging nationalism, which I would probably say there's not an awful lot of evidence supporting a surging nationalism. I think first and foremost they've managed to make themselves a kind of credible successor party to Welsh Labour. So a lot of this is about kind of credibility. They've managed to embody a sort of aspirational hope message. They were the kind of credible successor.

[Manveen Rana]

How much will the elections here impact Westminster, do you think?

[Professor Matthew Wall]

Well, yeah, I think if you look at the British picture, I think it's kind of priced in that this is going to be an absolute caning for Labour across the country, but there aren't many kind of pockets of hope really for Labour. This does seem to be a kind of a of punishment election that they're coming into in Wales as much as anywhere else. Maybe just feels worse in Wales because Welsh Labour has traditionally dominated elections here, but it is a fairly well spread picture, I would say.

[Manveen Rana]

If you're voting in Guerabatawe, the constituency that includes Swansea, then these are the parties up for election Conservatives, Green Party, the Heritage Party, Labour Liberal Democrats, Plaid Cymru, Reform UK and the Welsh Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition. The Independent candidates are Caton Bousulakos, Dan Brown and Emma McNamara. A special thanks to all the people around Swansea who spoke to us and do look out for our next report on the local elections from Motherwell in Scotland. The producer today was Harry Stott. The executive producer was Tim Walklate. Sound design and theme composition were by Malicetto. If you can do, leave us a review wherever you get your podcasts and if you want to get in touch the email address, here is the story the times.com thanks for listening. We'll be back tomorrow. SA.

[Professor Matthew Wall]

From globalization to innovation sustainability to market volatility, there's always more than one side to a story. Explore different perspectives on today's most important business and economic issues with the Flipside podcast from Barclays Investment Bank. Hear two research analysts in a lively debate and get insights from every angle to further inform your view. Listen to the Flip side on your favorite platform.

[Brookfield Advertiser]

At Brookfield, we believe you can own wealth that's measured in generations. For 125 years, we've built long term wealth through expertise, discipline and a clear vision for the future, providing investors access to alternative strategies built for what's next? Brookfield, oh what's next? Learn [e-mail] this is not an offer to sell or investment advice. Investing involves risks, including loss of capital. Past performance is not indicative nor a guarantee of future results. Please review performance and offering materials before investing.