The State of It: Andy Burnham wins Makerfield: what happens now?

Summary

The Story: The State of It – Andy Burnham Wins Makerfield: What Happens Now?
Podcast: The Story (The Times) | Special from "The State of It"
Date: June 19, 2026
Host (segment): Ed Vazy
Guests: Stephen Swinford (Times Political Editor), Lara Spirit (Sunday Times Deputy Political Editor)

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Episode Overview

This urgent episode dissects the seismic political shock of Andy Burnham's unexpectedly decisive win in the Makerfield by-election—a result with the immediate potential to upend the Labour Party and perhaps even Britain’s highest office itself. The panel analyses what led to Burnham’s victory, the reaction from key players including Keir Starmer and Nigel Farage, the prospects for Labour and Reform UK, and the broader implications for British politics and government. The conversation is lively, candid, and steeped in inside knowledge, mixing rapid political analysis with real-time reaction to unfolding power struggles.

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Major Discussion Points & Insights

1. Significance and Shock of Burnham’s Victory

• Extraordinary result bending the rules of politics:
  • Stephen Swinford: “Labour should not have won here. …you had, I think, a 23 point swing from Reform to Labour, which is just extraordinary. And that is because of Andy Burnham and the campaign. He's won and he is the difference maker there.” [02:46]
• Anti-establishment energy from an establishment figure:
  • Burnham's campaign "ran an anti-establishment, anti-Prime Minister campaign and that was very successful," echoing Reform’s appeal but directed back at Labour. [04:35]
• Defying expectations from all quarters:
  • Lara Spirit shares that even some inside Reform considered Burnham’s win unlikely; polling showed him ahead but the victory margin was a surprise. [03:22]

2. Keir Starmer’s Response and the Brewing Labour Civil War

• Starmer refuses to step down, framing Burnham’s move as undemocratic:
  • Stephen Swinford: "Keir Starmer is furious. He thinks that what Andy Burnham is doing is unforgivable. He feels betrayed...This is profoundly undemocratic, that it's effectively a coup." [06:20]
• Starmer insists he'll fight any leadership challenge:
  • “If there is a contest, just to be clear with you, then, yes, I will run, I will stand. And I've said repeatedly, I'm not going to walk away from that.” – Keir Starmer [08:29]
• Burnham’s camp vs. Starmer’s process orientation:
  • Lara Spirit: “The idea that [the upcoming Manchester mayoral by-election] in some way stands in the way of Keir Starmer...is insane. They think this Premiership is already dead.” [09:22]
  • Starmer accused of seeking refuge in procedure (“process matters in politics”). [10:21, 10:37]

3. Burnham’s Strategy and Labour’s Internal Dynamics

• Burnham presenting MP support to pressure Starmer:
  • Stephen Swinford expects Burnham to arrive at a face-to-face with Starmer holding a list of 80+ MP supporters—not to immediately trigger a contest, but to push for an orderly transition. [10:47, 11:36]
• Key powerbrokers rallying behind Burnham:
  • Trade union leaders, donors, and party grandees will try to convince Starmer that his time is up. [11:44]

4. Reform UK’s Struggles and Nigel Farage’s Disappointment

• Farage blunt about underperformance:
  • “I thought we'd get 18,000 votes. We got just shy of 16. So I'm disappointed by that, no question about it..." – Nigel Farage [12:57]
• Splintering of the right with the rise of ‘Restore’ party:
  • Farage blames right-wing rivals for splitting his vote, signalling real alarm over Reform’s failure to break through.
  • Stephen Swinford: "If you're being outflanked on your right...that's a problem if you're Nigel Farage." [13:46]
• Candidate missteps and identity crisis within Reform:
  • Lara Spirit: “...on focus groups with women, talking about the previous comments [by the Reform candidate], it was clear that definitely did play something of a role.” [14:49]
  • Discussion about the influx of ‘Tory retreads’ and the resulting loss of insurgent identity. [15:34]

5. Conservatives’ Perspective and Policy

• A rare by-election win in Scotland on oil and gas focus:
  • Lara Spirit notes this is “the first by-election victory in my lifetime in Scotland...on an issue they have campaigned on…oil and gas.” [17:01]

6. What Would a PM Burnham Do?

• Leftward shift, ambitious but vague plans:
  • Swinford: “His central pitch is I want to end 40 years of neoliberalism…that involves some kind of public control of the energy companies. It probably involves tax rises of some form on wealth and assets.” [19:31]
• Limited detail but some signals:
  • Burnham commits to fiscal rules and rules out an early general election—suggesting at least a three-year project. [20:10]
• Pressure for specifics mounts as markets and public demand clarity
• Focus on redistribution but avoids “crude cuts”:
  • “What he was opposed to was what he called crude cuts to benefits.” [23:51]
• Possibility of reform in welfare, alongside new taxes on wealth/land [24:29]

7. Key Personalities Around Burnham

• Inner circle ("northern queens"):
  • Louise Haig and Annalise Midgley identified as central strategists. [25:56]
• Advisors and potential major Cabinet roles:
  • Ed Miliband rumored for Chancellor, but doubts persist due to concerns about flexibility and internal politics. [27:31]
  • Shabana Mahmood likely to remain as Home Secretary, a role she fought to keep, particularly to maintain her immigration reforms. [29:03, 29:59]
• Wes Streeting’s uncertain future:
  • Numbers unclear, but Burnham’s camp reports possible defections from Streeting’s camp. [31:13]
  • “He wants at the very least the platform to make his case. He views himself as the underdog,” — Stephen Swinford on Streeting’s ambitions [31:47]
  • Whether Streeting could serve as Chancellor or another high office is left unresolved with interviews suggesting it's “not likely.” [33:50]

8. Outlook for Starmer Loyalists and Next Moves

• Starmer’s loyalists face demotion or exclusion:
  • “The loyalists are going to struggle...to feature in an Andy Burnham administration.” [35:09]
  • High competition for new Cabinet roles, and significant “untapped talent” might surface. [35:22]
• Angela Rayner, Lisa Nandy, and others expected to seek prominent posts under Burnham. [36:00]

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "He has defied political gravity because all the rules say... you call a by election explicitly with the purpose of becoming Prime Minister, not to represent your constituents. ...And yet you still prevail. It is impressive.” – Ed Vazy [04:14]
• "Keir Starmer is furious. ...he feels that this is profoundly undemocratic, that it's effectively a coup. ...He is determined to stop a coronation at all costs.” – Stephen Swinford [06:20]
• “If there is a contest, just to be clear with you, then, yes, I will run, I will stand. And I've said repeatedly, I'm not going to walk away from that.” – Keir Starmer [08:29]
• "It's clear from that response that Farage is very worried about restore's impact on the Reform vote." – Ed Vazy [13:24]
• "He is sticking to the fiscal rules... There’s only a finite amount of money and there are massively competing spending priorities... reality is going to hit him in the face very quickly." – Ed Vazy [23:03]
• "The answer to [what is Andy Burnham’s economic philosophy] will be: who is his Chancellor? And that will be big signal to people about the kind of government that Andy Burnham wants to lead…” – Lara Spirit [27:34]
• “Do not underestimate his state of mind…he is Keir Starmer and he is the hard bastard of the football pitch, as he terms it... So this could go on for ages.” – Stephen Swinford [32:44]
• “I feel like we're gonna have to drag him out with his fingernails on the threshold. Just drag him out the building.” (cabinet minister on Starmer) [31:47]

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Key Timestamps

• 02:10 – Setting the scene: Burnham’s shock win, implications, introducing the panel
• 02:46 – Why Burnham won: 23-point swing, ‘King of the North’ effect
• 04:35 – Burnham’s anti-establishment campaign within Labour
• 06:20 – Starmer’s anger and refusal to step aside
• 08:29 – Starmer’s on-record message: he will stand if challenged
• 09:22 – Burnham’s camp seeks an orderly transition, sees Starmer as isolated
• 10:47 – Burnham’s strategy: showing strength via MP nominations
• 12:57 – Nigel Farage addresses Reform’s underperformance
• 13:46 – Reform UK’s identity crisis and candidate problems
• 17:01 – Conservatives’ rare success in Scotland, oil and gas focus
• 19:31 – What does Burnham stand for? Vague manifesto, leftward rhetoric
• 23:03 – Discussion of Burnham’s fiscal constraints
• 25:56 – Key advisors: Louise Haig, Annalise Midgley, and the welfare/welfare reform debate
• 27:31 – Ed Miliband’s position, friction on Chancellor appointment
• 29:03 – Shabana Mahmood likely to remain Home Secretary
• 31:09 – Wes Streeting’s prospects and motivations
• 32:44 – Starmer’s determination compared to previous party leadership struggles
• 35:09 – Starmer loyalists’ prospects and new talent on the Labour front bench

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Tone and Language

• Analytical, brisk, occasionally wry—keen to separate speculation from established fact.
• The panel openly shares inside sources, gut reactions, and interpersonal observations from within the party.
• Listeners are given a ringside seat to the rapidly evolving political drama.

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In Summary

Burnham’s Makerfield win has set off a potentially epochal crisis in Labour, threatening to end Starmer’s leadership. The outcome depends on whether Burnham can leverage MP and party support to force an orderly transition—or whether Starmer will dig in for a protracted internal fight. Meanwhile, Farage’s Reform UK is on the back foot, undermined by rivals, candidate missteps, and a shifting party identity, while the Conservatives are buoyed by rare success in Scotland. As the country wonders what—if anything—Burnham as Prime Minister would actually mean for policy, Labour’s factions, both old and new, are already jockeying for position in a new era that has arrived faster than anyone expected.

Transcript

[Ed Vazy]

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[Luke]

Hello, it is Luke here. Andy Burnham has stormed to victory in the Makerfield by election today. It is a result which you don't need me to tell you, could transform not just the Labour Party but also maybe boot Keir Starmer out of number 10. Is this so called King of the north heading for Downing Street? How much of a fight is Starmer going to put up if he is? And will all of this actually lead to anything different coming out of government? Our sister podcast the State of It recorded an emergency podcast earlier today to unpack the fallout.

[Ed Vazy]

I'm Ed Vazy and this is a live recording on Times Radio of the Times podcast the State of It. Over the next 30 minutes or so we're going to tell you everything you need to know about the result of the Makerfield by election. What it means for Keir Starmer, what it means for Andy Burnham, what it means for Nigel Farage and the country. I am here with two heavyweights from the State of It. The Times Political Editor Stephen Swinford. Welcome to the show.

[Stephen Swinford]

Delighted to be here.

[Ed Vazy]

Sunday Times Deputy Political Editor Lara Spirit. Welcome to the show. Hi Ed, Steve, let's start with you. How many superlatives do you want to use to describe the result of this?

[Stephen Swinford]

I will go with one. It is an extraordinary result and it's extraordinary because Andy, well, Labour should not have won here. If you look at six weeks ago at the Local elections Reform swept the board there, they decimated Labour in this seat and you've had, I think, a 23 point swing from Reform to Labour, which is just extraordinary. And that is because of Andy Burnham and the campaign. He's won and he is the difference maker there. And that is what a lot of Labour MPs are saying. They are saying that is why he needs to be on our Prime Minister.

[Ed Vazy]

Yeah, I mean, can you out superlative, Steve?

[Lara Spirit]

One thing in life is absolutely sure, which is that I'm not capable of Steve, but obviously he's completely right and it is absolutely extraordinary for those who are supportive of Burnham this morning. I think in recent days, especially speaking to some people in Reform, there's been a sense of, oh, you know, are you being a slightly credulous journalist by just assuming that Andy Burnham might. When actually the polling we're seeing privately suggested it might well be even more close? You know, one was semi ridiculing me for having published a poll which showed that Burnham was 11 points ahead, basically suggesting there'd be egg on our faces. And actually he's sort of outperformed the expectations. But I mean, from their perspective, it's quite interesting. I mean, I think they think that there's a get Starmer out vote that they've capitalized on and also which in this instance Andy Burnham has capitalised on too. And that's kind of their case for why this might not be as catastrophic as some people think it is.

[Ed Vazy]

Yeah, there's so much going on in my head about this, but one of the things, I mean, I fully expected Andy Burnham to lose. And in that sense, Steve, he has defied political gravity because all the rules say, you know, you walk away from your job as mayor, you call a by election explicitly with the purpose of becoming Prime Minister, not to represent your constituents. You call a by election where voters basically get a free hit and yet you still prevail. It is impressive.

[Stephen Swinford]

That's because he campaigned on the basis of, let's call it. It's change Labour. And what that actually means is change. The Prime Minister, he ran an anti establishment, anti Prime Minister campaign and that was very successful. And in strange ways, there are echoes of where Reform had their success during the local elections. Vote Reform. Get Starmer out. Well, this is actually a case of very literally, Vote Burnham gets Starmer out. And that had appeal. So what he tapped into was the wider dissatisfaction in Makerfield with the state of politics more broadly and specifically Keir Starmer and his premiership. And that is why he is now odds on to be Prime Minister? I mean, it feels increasingly inevitable.

[Ed Vazy]

I don't want to confuse the sort of timeline and bring in Aberdeen, but the things that I thought this morning when I woke up was, first of all, this feels like the night after, the morning after a general election. It feels like, you know, we've just elected a new Prime Minister. The other odd thing is the two establishment parties almost overnight have become Lara, the anti establishment parties.

[Lara Spirit]

Yeah, I mean, it's very interesting and I think if the story after the May local elections was the kind of great fragmentation of British politics and the idea that first past, I suppose, would buckle under its weight. Actually, obviously what saw last night was the complete opposite, which was actually two establishment parties doing very well.

[Ed Vazy]

Yeah, obviously. I keep saying Andy Burnham will be the next Prime Minister, but people talk about a process and indeed we've just heard from somebody who may be involved in that process. He's called Sir Keir Starmer. He's the Prime Minister. He says he will stand in a Labour leadership contest should one be triggered after Andy Burnham returns to Westminster, adding, he will not walk away. It sounds completely crazy, Steve, but could there be a sort of civil war?

[Stephen Swinford]

I mean, he is determined not to go. What we need to do is just put listeners in the mindset of Keir Starmer for a minute. And Keir Starmer is furious. He thinks that what Andy Burnham is doing is unforgivable. He feels betrayed by it. And worse than that, he feels that this is profoundly undemocratic, that it's effectively a coup. You've got a guy who, on the back of a by election, it's just a by election, it's potentially going to walk into number 10. And he is determined to stop a coronation at all costs. He wants to push this to a leadership contest and that is what Andy Burnham is trying desperately to avoid. They really don't want a contest because if it turns into a contest, it turns into a very long hot and ugly summer. You know, we've been here before. We played this game with the Tories many times. You have these very long, brutal leadership contests. The party turns in on itself and, you know, arguably no one is any the wiser at the end of it. So that's where Byrne is. But then from Starmer's point of view, we don't. His people argue we don't know much about Andy Burnham and I think that is broadly correct. We know some things. But what are his tax policies? What are his welfare policies? What are his defense? I don't know. And I've interviewed the guy, I've sat with him and he was very courteous and a good speaker, but obviously he's campaigning for a by election. He's not campaigning for the Premiership. And there is something just last, I will add on this, something slightly surreal and wonderful about this morning that we potentially had the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom kind of unveiled, standing alongside Count Bin Face and a man dressed as a fox who had just done a long monologue about animal cruelty and animal rights issues. That is a very British moment, but in many other ways this is a very un British moment because it is the normal kind of democratic expectations of a leadership contest and all of that. At the moment, Andy Bonham was trying to avoid those. And Starmer's saying, you're gonna have to fight me.

[Ed Vazy]

Steve, you and I are very much on the same page because I did retweet the photograph of Andy Burnham's which had the tag, you know, never let it be said that Britain is not the greatest democracy in the world. But you talked about, let's get into the head of Keir Starmer, let's hear what he actually had to say to see if we can gauge his mood.

[Keir Starmer]

I don't think that's a good thing for the country to plunge us into chaos. I would also add that now that Andy is one, which is really important, really good, he's a huge asset to us. The now will inevitably be a Manchester mayoralty by election starting straight away. So it's important that we pull together for that. But if there is a contest, just to be clear with you, then, yes, I will run, I will stand. And I've said repeatedly, I'm not going to walk away from that.

[Ed Vazy]

Yeah, I mean, I think what Steve was saying earlier, I mean, he sounds extremely sincere there, Lara. And I also think what's interesting is he's taken refuge in process. He's sort of becoming his right hand man. Steve Reed, the Cabinet Minister, was on Times Radio Breakfast talking about, oh, we've got to deal with the mayoral election now. So it's clearly Keir Starmer is laboring, perhaps under the illusion, perhaps I'm putting words into people's mouths, but that he can kind of put it off for five weeks while they get the mayor election done.

[Lara Spirit]

Yeah. I think it's fair to say that those around Burnham think that is like a completely absurd case and point to the fact that Burnham, I'm told, is already having fundraising meetings to help with that mayoral campaign, that he will be committed to that. But the idea that, that in some way stands in the way of Keir Starmer looking at this, talking to Andy Burnham, which of course they hope he will do, and coming up with some sort of time frame in which there might be able to be an orderly transition, I think, in their minds, is insane. They think this Premiership is already dead. I mean, I think they think it's insane when he stands up and says things like this. And I think that's why over the course of this weekend, you'll see a number of people try on behalf of Burnham to get through to Starmer. They're a bit worried because they think Starmer's in something of a bunker. They think he's surrounded by a small group of people that he actually truly listens to. And in that small group of people, there isn't enough diversity of thought to bring Starmer to a position that they think would be able to give him a, quote, dignified exit. They want a, quote, orderly transition. That is, as you've heard in the words of Keir Starmer there, just not where the Prime Minister is at all at this point.

[Ed Vazy]

Yeah, it's a sort of potentially a nightmare scenario, Stephen, is it? Because, I mean, what do they do? I mean, they do want to tell the Prime Minister to wake up and smell the coffee, but he's entitled to stand in the election. It sounds like he just hasn't got the message. I mean, it's a process.

[Stephen Swinford]

As my therapist, the process matters in politics. Right. And if Starmer wants to fight this, he can.

[Ed Vazy]

I mean, do we get cabinet designations 2.0?

[Stephen Swinford]

We may well do. But one of the. So one of the most crucial events of this weekend is at some point Andy Burnham is going to talk to Keir Starmer and there. Lara has some more detail on this. But there are suggestions that Andy is going to come to any meeting. They do have, they do have a face to face on Monday, or they talk over the weekend with a list. And on that list will be the names of at least 80 MPS who would nominate him for the leadership, but probably a lot more. And the whole purpose of this is not to say, hold this list aloft and say, triggering the contest. Now, Prime Minister, you know I'm coming for you. It is to say, I have the support, I could trigger a contest and to put pressure on Starmer. And that is the window that we are in for the next 72 hours. They are going to try to exert maximum pressure. So those names matter. And we think you've, you've got a couple of numbers, you've heard.

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[Lara Spirit]

So I mean, they think they've already got the requisite names. Right. And the New Statesman reported last night they're going to try and get even more over the course. They want to get something like 200.

[Ed Vazy]

Yes.

[Lara Spirit]

But there will also be people, I'm told, that will be going to Starmer this weekend. So donors, crucially, trade union leaders, grandees, the sort of grey haired, as it was put to me, respected members of the party who they think Starmer might.

[Ed Vazy]

Well, the men in grey suits, they're stealing all the Tories clothes

[Lara Spirit]

and I think they hope that that sort of, kind of motley crew will be able to help Starmer come to a position. I think we should say as well that after the May local elections, Starmer was in a rut. Of course he was as defiant as we're hearing him today, but he was seeking counsel. You know, we'd reported he'd spoken to Tony Blair, that Tony Blair had told him to fight on. He'd also spoken to Gordon Brown during that period as well and was reaching out to others in his kind of, you know, wider circle of trust. So I think for those inside the Burnham camp to say that this is somebody who's completely not listening. I think he will be trying to take counsel from other people. And you know, Steve has said this on the podcast before, but all the kind of bravado and the language of I'm fighting this, I'm fighting this has to be said until it doesn't.

[Ed Vazy]

Well, we're all very excited by what is going on and let's not lose sight of what's going on with the opposition. Reform uk. It could be said this result is a bit of a damp squib for them. Shall we hear what Nigel Farage had to say about it?

[Nigel Farage]

As for the Reform vote share, well, I thought we'd get 18,000 votes. We got just shy of 16. So I'm disappointed by that, no question about it. But I would say this. There's a couple of thousand voters there who would normally have gone out and voted reform that voted restore. And I would say directly to them, what do you want? We are the challenger party to the left in this country and I would urge you to think again. I really, really would.

[Ed Vazy]

It's a sort of fascinating response, I thought there from Nigel Farage, because he chooses to focus on restore. I mean, I said earlier that Labour was stealing Tory clays. Now reform finds itself in a battle with the right, the even further right it's very clear from that response that Nigel Farage is very worried about restore's impact on the Reform vote.

[Stephen Swinford]

They're concerned and their tune has changed significantly and it is obviously eating into Reforms vote. And that is a problem if you're being outflanked on your right. And let's not forget that the resurgence of the Tories under Kemi Badenoch is that that result is significant in Scotland. So there has been a disparity, which I'm sure you are more than familiar with, Ed, between she is becoming increasingly popular. The Tory is still rock bottom. It is, you know, down there on 17% with the greens. Not to be rude about it, but it is. The question is, will there come a point where her appeal starts to translate to the Conservative Party more broadly? But either way, the right is very split right now, and if you are Nigel Farage and you are wanting an outright majority, you've got all this money, huge amounts of money pouring in and you're not getting the results. And there are some fundamental issues there, Laura. I mean, they chose the wrong candidate. Like, why would you choose a guy when, you know, presumably his Twitter track record? Because it's been deleted just before the contest.

[Keir Starmer]

Yes.

[Stephen Swinford]

Who said some pretty unsavory things in the past.

[Keir Starmer]

Right.

[Babbel Advertiser]

Yeah.

[Lara Spirit]

I mean, having sat in on, you know, focus groups with women, talking about the previous comments, I think it was clear that that definitely did play something of a role. And actually talking to Luke Trill for more in common, it was a kind of broader set of concerns as well, that they had about Robert Kenyon. They just simply weren't that impressed with him as a candidate. So I think there'll be questions asked about that as well. And actually, here, obviously, Restored didn't get in the way of reform winning that vote.

[Babbel Advertiser]

Right.

[Lara Spirit]

Like, Andy Burnham did just win so convincingly in this particular seat that it's not quite as potent a challenge. But it is clear, listening to that, that Nigel Farage is. I mean, he almost sounded slightly irritated with those people that had voted 100%. There was definitely not a sense of I was going to come out and win these back in a kind of friendly way. It was much more of a, what. What do you think you're doing?

[Stephen Swinford]

It does play into this schism in reform itself, this. This massive debate about the dual identity of the party, that it was an insurgent party and it viewed itself as that and marked itself as that. And there are concerns, and people like Zia Youssef express them very publicly, that bringing in the Tory retreads, as they were termed by him and others at the time, was not a good thing.

[Ed Vazy]

Right.

[Stephen Swinford]

And they're here now. So, Robert Genre, all these people are here. And that is kind of the word. The concern that some in Reform have is that changed the identity of the party. It look more establishment, but in a bid to make themselves more potentially electorally palatable and economic policy and other terms, there is possibly a price for that. Talking to some people in Reform this morning, they're saying, look, it's not a case of, look, this is obviously not great. We did, you know, there are privately admissions they got the candidate wrong. Privately, you know, also they concede that Burnham was a very difficult fight for them. But perhaps more broadly, they don't want to change their strategy entirely because they have still been leading all the polls. And like, you know, it's because we're not used to. Haven't been very used to seeing them perform. Not as well as expected. Right. Which is quite clearly. And he isn't used to that. It's a change in the narrative. And the thing for him, he needs to do, and they would need to do is keep the momentum or regain the momentum is probably how I'd best put it. And that is challenging.

[Ed Vazy]

Lara, where do the Tories go from here? Have they got any. I mean, they have got something to cling on to. It's the first by election victory in my lifetime in Scotland.

[Lara Spirit]

Yeah, no, I mean, exactly. And on an issue that they have campaigned on and led on in a way which has been very focused for quite some time. I mean, this is something, you heard it in Deputy Prime Minister's questions this week, questioning on energy policy. And it is, let's remember, a really, it will be a really key debate that Andy Burnham has if he becomes Prime Minister. I mean, they want to look at some of these things anew. There will be questions in the Labour coalition about whether or not this will cause a split. And I think the Tories, as far as they can focus on oil and gas, will be feeling really, really confident about this.

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[Ed Vazy]

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[Stephen Swinford]

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[Ed Vazy]

Well, let's go back to Andy Burnham. We talked a bit about the process and so on, but I think we are all agreed that he will at some point become Prime Minister. And however bloody that happens, what does Andy Burnham do as Prime Minister? Steve, you've interviewed him, he's very nice. We know the great joke about Andy Burnham. A man walks in a Corbinite, whatever, a milibandite and a star walk into a bar and the barman says, what will you be having, Andy? Does Andy Burnham stand for anything? All this stuff gets trickled out. He's got these three high powered economic advisors and so on. Is there anything approaching a manifesto?

[Stephen Swinford]

Undeniably, he is going to pull the Labour Party left right. His central pitch is I want to end 40 years of neoliberalism. To us in plain English, he's talking about Thatcherism and that involves some kind of public control of the energy companies. It probably involves tax rises of some form on wealth and assets. I think whoever is Prime Minister and Chancellor come the next budget is going to be raising taxes. These defence spending needs to be paid for. The most significant things. Actually, when you stand back from this election campaign, there were two things. Andy Burnham didn't say them, his spokespeople did. One, he will follow the fiscal rules and that in following the rules he

[Ed Vazy]

knows what they are.

[Stephen Swinford]

That greatly narrows what he can do. So that does mean tax rises of some form are likely. And two, he has ruled out an early election because he thinks presumably that he's got three years to try to change the course here. But there is very relatively little we know beyond that. When I interviewed him, we were talking about a kind of 10 year investment plan where you'd have as part of all public investment, some kind of social weighting. But it was all quite unclear as to the specifics of what that meant. And that is fair enough in a by election, right? That is completely fair enough. We are not in that territory anymore. So there are huge questions about his agenda, which taxes he would raise, where he would go, and we don't have the answers at the moment. And it's not just me. Journalists are asking this, voters are going to be asking this, the markets are asking this question. Right. They are very, very sensitive. They announced this announcement last night. They were getting Richard Hughes, the former chairman of the obr, who had to quit after the OBR inadvertently leaked the entire budget. He's, he's gone in to advise Andy Bowman and they're trying to kind of shore up the kind of fiscal credibility side. But the biggest concern out there, I think that I'm picking up is even from some, some of his supporters is we're not really sure what Andy stands for. And that's a potential problem.

[Ed Vazy]

Yeah, I mean, calming the markets is the first job of Andy Burnham, Prime Minister, but he hasn't talked about economic growth at all.

[Lara Spirit]

It's interesting. I mean, I think we'll hear more about, about all of this when he comes down to Westminster. The early challenges that he will face, of course, will be around things like the defence investment plan, these kind of bigger questions. I mean, the government still, let's be clear, wants to get that done before the NATO summit. And when you speak to people around Burnham, they do concede that they're happy with the Prime Minister still being in place in time for the NATO summit in a few weeks. So I think they've conceded that he's still going to be there in the very immediate term. So I think if they do manage to get that through, it will be a decision for Burnham whether or not he wants to reopen that, keep that. If indeed, as we would expect, he'd bring in a new team, would they be comfortable with that settlement or not? I mean, there were all of these questions and as Steve implies, there is a kind of core economic philosophy which will probably guide him in some way. You can look at people around him like Louise Haig, for example, one of his closest advisors, has run the campaign alongside Anneliese Midgley up in Makerfield and, and she's written before about looking at longer term investment propositions and plans. For example, when you speak to people around Burnham, they always use this language of he wants to be creative with the economy, he's Keen to do things differently, which obviously isn't super specific, but

[Ed Vazy]

I think I want to be creative with my economy.

[Luke]

Do you?

[Ed Vazy]

With my bank manager.

[Lara Spirit]

I mean, that's perhaps being unfair. I'm more thinking what they mean by that is we will try and look at new solutions to things and they think there are possible solutions to problems that the existing group of politicians that are in charge haven't necessarily thought of or taken seriously enough. And I think that's what they'll look at.

[Ed Vazy]

I'd like to talk about the personalities around Burnham in a minute, but I wanted to pick up on what Lara said about the defence investment plan. I mean, that's the point. You combine your point, Steve, he's sticking to the fiscal rules, and then you add in the fact that there's only a finite amount of money and there are massively competing spending priorities. Does that is Andy Burnham strike you as the man who's going to make the tough choices, frankly, that Keir Starmer would never make, which is his undoing to say to his Chancellor and his Cabinet, this is the priority, get it done, make the savings where you can. Some of them will be wildly unpopular with the electorate who've just sent me to Downing street to transform British politics. But reality is going to hit him in the face very quickly.

[Stephen Swinford]

I mean, his whole pitch is about protecting less wealthy, poorer households.

[Ed Vazy]

Right.

[Stephen Swinford]

His whole pitch is about effectively a redistribution pitch almost on that. So when we talked about benefits with him, he said, what I want to do is encourage people to get back to work and like more support to help people get back to work over a long period. What he was. What he was opposed to was what he called crude cuts to benefits.

[Ed Vazy]

So in this classic creative.

[Stephen Swinford]

But what he doesn't want is, you know, the Tories and reformer proposing very drastic cuts to benefits and you're definitely not going to see that. So. But on other choices, he could presumably do some, particularly on taxes on wealth to raise money. I would expect that that is an area maybe capital gains tax.

[Ed Vazy]

May.

[Stephen Swinford]

He's talked about kind of almost some quite revolutionary stuff on overhauling council tax and introducing a much broader land tax. So that is the direction of travel from his thinking that you can see over time whether he does that Now. I mean, the weird thing about this by election campaign is you'd get someone, go up and interview him and he'd start, you know, he'd give a general. Yeah, I've always said that council tax revaluation needs to happen and we should look at a land tax it would suddenly be the splash of the ft, the markets would be going absolutely mental and then it would all have to calm down again. And he had to clarify. Or WASPy women, I'm sympathetic to their cause. That suddenly led to concerns that there was going to be a massive settlement for that and then they had to clarify. So that is a level of scrutiny that he is just not used to. But it's huge questions about what he's going to do and who are his key people in those jobs now.

[Ed Vazy]

Exactly. And that's a great moment to talk about them because I always say the difference between Boris as Mayor and Boris as Prime Minister is if you're the mayor and you're directly elected, there is no threat against you. So you can appoint the best people without worrying they might take your job. Andy Burnham will have to appoint a cabinet which will be full of people potentially who say, well actually I could do this job in a few years time. It's a very different role, a sort of first among equals role, but. And he'll also have his advisors. I've seen so many names, I'm not an insider. I've seen Jim o' Neill as an economic advisor. I've even seen the name sue gray. You mentioned two people, Lara, two MPs who are central to Andy Burnham. Who are they and who are the others?

[Lara Spirit]

So Louise Haig and Annalise Minchley. So they've been kind of. They've been jointly running Andy Burnham's campaign in Makefield. They're the kind of so called northern queens of this campaign. Louise Haig, of course, former Transport Secretary and Annalise Midgley, a kind of key MP who has been something of a rising star and particularly one of those MPs that you may not necessarily have heard a great deal about in public, but when you speak to Labour MPs they will always mention her as a key power broker.

[Ed Vazy]

And some people thought she was sort of behind the welfare rebellion. She out McSweeneyed McSweeney.

[Lara Spirit]

I mean, I think the welfare rebellion is a really key thing to pause on actually, because to Steve's point about crude cuts, that is one of the key things that they want to impress upon people, which is essentially it's not that these people around Burnham are completely opposed to cutting welfare or having welfare reform. They just think that the way the Starmer government did this, I. E. Having a kind of crude cut to PIP in order to fund something else, they're saying only by a real stretch of the imagination can you truly Call that reform? You're not actually reforming the system there. They would say you're actually just making some cuts. It was seen as this kind of totemic rejection in the Labour Party of any kind of welfare reform in perpetuity. They want to say, actually that's different and they are open to reform. So I think those. Those individuals are obviously very important. You've got Kevin Lee, these other people who've been around Burnham since Manchester days, who are in his kind of inner circle. You've got Grace Pritchard, who's his communications director, who's the kind of first big hire. He's already taken her on heading down to. She previously worked for Ed Miliband.

[Ed Vazy]

Oh, okay.

[Stephen Swinford]

Should we talk about Ed? Yes, come on. Let's talk about why are we leaving Ed. Til last.

[Ed Vazy]

I thought about Ed on my dog walk this morning.

[Lara Spirit]

So Ed on Miliband.

[Ed Vazy]

And it's put my head a lot

[Stephen Swinford]

of time on this podcast.

[Lara Spirit]

We spent a lot of time thinking, talking about Ed. Ed, I was told by a number of people yesterday, arrived at about 4pm at the campaign centre in Makerfield, and I think some of those who were supportive of Burnham felt that perhaps his. His efforts to knock on doors were perhaps not quite as enthusiastic as perhaps some of the others who have been there day in, day out. But he is, of course, at the centre of this big question, which of course is, and I think to this point, of what is Andy Burnham's economic philosophy? The answer to that will be who is his Chancellor? And that will be big signal to people about the kind of government that Andy Burnham wants to lead, both economically and also just wider. Ed Miliband, I think, believed that he was an insert for that job. I don't think that that is actually necessarily true. There's been some real concerns about, among some around Andy Burnham, about what a Miliband chancellorship would look like. One is a personality question. They don't like the way that he has, in their view, told people that he might be in line for this job. And they also don't like this assumption that he is somehow the reason why Burnham has been allowed to stand in Makerfield or could well reach the top job. They feel that has perhaps been overstated. That's the first point. The second point is that they feel that Ed Miliband would restrict Burnham's ability to be flexible on key issues, particularly Net zero, on which they worry that any time they did something he'd be on resignation watch, that it would be a big problem. It's still not clear who's going to get that top job. They wanted it, some people around Burnham, some senior advisors, to go to Shabana Mahmood. She'd made it clear that she was quite keen to stay as Home Secretary.

[Stephen Swinford]

For what it's worth, we think she will be his Home Secretary. That's where we've got to. I mean, may not be right, but from this morning, from our.

[Ed Vazy]

Do you have like a whiteboard with post it notes that you move?

[Stephen Swinford]

No, we just try to keep on the edge of our brain. But from we. We think Shabana Mahmood will stay on his home section, which we can come to in a minute, is interesting in its own right. But that just leaves this question of who's the Chancellor?

[Lara Spirit]

And I think, I mean. And that is the big question. Steve. Steve will have his master whiteboard. They are insisting that up in Makerfield they don't have our kind of master board where they've got all these kind of names at their. They're looking at, but that, you know, failing Shobana and in circumstances where Ed Miliban was deemed to be perhaps an inappropriate pick, there would be other names in the hat. Perhaps someone like John Healy, for example. But I think at this point we really don't know. But that's very interesting on Shabana Mahmood staying as Home Secretary, which is of course something she'd impressed upon these advisors when they'd come knocking. She cares so much about her immigration reforms that I think she's very keen to see those through.

[Stephen Swinford]

She believes they're key to Labour's future. She sees that as, you know, one of the things that she was very successful at was convincing her people behind the scenes, both Burnham and Streeting, not to abandon her reforms. And there was this massive change during the campaign from Burnham, who before this campaign was very hostile publicly to some of her reforms, particularly the indefinite leave to remain stuff where they're making it harder for people to claim indefinite leave to remain. And then suddenly during the campaign he was actually on board with that and said, shabana's doing a good job. And that was because it is a key flank with reform and it's one they actually do need, a kind of tough migration policy. So she wants to protect that.

[Lara Spirit]

Yeah, I think she'd impressed upon these advisors during the course of these conversations that actually seeing that she felt that perhaps Burnham had learnt that lesson from Makerfield as well, that actually, you know, campaigning in Makerfield had taught him the importance of these reforms and she was feeling more confident that that was something that he was happy to go forward with.

[Ed Vazy]

I mean, she's an incredibly impressive performers, I think. I feel like when I have these tech conversations, I wait for somebody to mention AI, and when we have these conversations, I'm waiting for one of you to mention Wes Streeting. What's gonna. What are you gonna do with Wes?

[Stephen Swinford]

So does he have the numbers? Is the main Wes question. Right?

[Ed Vazy]

I'm kind of assuming he's not. It's a coronation, but.

[Stephen Swinford]

So Andy Burnham's people say he doesn't have the numbers to mount a challenge. Keir Starmer's people says he doesn't have the numbers to match. West Streeting says he does have the numbers to match challenge. And that is the question.

[Lara Spirit]

Yeah. I mean, crucially, some of Burnham's people this morning saying, actually that they've had conversations with people who were on Wes Streeting's list of numbers, but who are saying, actually, I want to change to Burnham now, which is interesting. And I mean, they never believed what it's worth that Wes treating had the numbers. And that will forever be a classic, you know, can you prove it? Can you not prove it's a contest?

[Luke]

Right?

[Stephen Swinford]

He wants the battle of ideas. He has said he wants a contest. He wants, at the very least, the platform to make his case. He views himself, himself as the underdog. He wants to chance to fight for this. And he may not get that because we've discussed there's a coronation potentially. But look, again, just to circle back to Kirsten for a moment, do not underestimate his state of mind. As I was talking to a cabinet minister this morning, and they were saying, I feel like we're gonna have to drag him out with his fingernails on the threshold. Just drag him out the building. And you're gonna get into this next 72 hours this week. That whole pressure that goes back to Gordon Brown when he was accused of squatting in number 10. And it every day got more and more challenging during the kind of very difficult coalition talks, right? And then eventually it fell away. But this could go on for some time. You remember, that went on for ages, right? Many books have been written about it. But this could go on for.

[Ed Vazy]

For longer, right?

[Stephen Swinford]

If Starmer wants to fight this, he can. And for all these people saying, maybe he'll just see reason. Well, he is Keir Starmer and he is the hard bastard of the football pitch, as he terms it. And Patrick and Gable wrote in his book, right, he considers himself a tough guy who wins. And when his back's in the corner. So this could go on for ages.

[Ed Vazy]

I mean, you're making my head hurt, Steve, because if Keir Starmer chooses to stand, there's a leisure contest. Then there is a case for saying if west street can get the numbers, he wants a platform. But for me, it just seems so obvious that if you were Wes Streeting, you would quietly sidle up to Andy Burnham and say, give me a job and I will back you. Because you're not. You're going to lose to Andy Burnham. So do you then go into the outer wilderness and become a sort of Heseltine figure, or do you just go to him and say, I could be your Chancellor and you still, you know, the Lara. Steve Nexus has still not told me who the Chancellor's gonna be.

[Lara Spirit]

No, I know.

[Ed Vazy]

That's because I'm trying to lead you to a Wes treating Chancellorship.

[Stephen Swinford]

We do not know at this right. Whether.

[Babbel Advertiser]

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[Stephen Swinford]

We're treating. Whether they'll strong arm Shabana.

[Ed Vazy]

Is that a possibility, do you think,

[Lara Spirit]

Wes some this morning about. We're treating and they said it wasn't likely.

[Stephen Swinford]

I think that there were no. Wes did a speech this week about progressive capitalism, which he took various shots at Andy Burnham and his prognosis of 40 years neoliberalism being the problem, and even said the bond markets are not the bond villains, which was a direct jibe at Andy Burnham. So. So the reason Streeting might want a contest is because it gives him a platform and it increases his currency. If you are a leadership rival, then at the end of that you've got, you know, you've taken it to the edge and you can say, well, actually, you could potentially bargain for a better position in a future government.

[Lara Spirit]

Remember what it did for kemi Badenoch in 2017? Yeah, I mean, that was. Do you remember she.

[Ed Vazy]

And no, I don't.

[Stephen Swinford]

You're so good.

[Ed Vazy]

You've out nerded me.

[Lara Spirit]

I just remember because she was. She was a real underdog and it wasn't necessarily that anybody thought that she was going to win that, but she emerged with her reputation greatly enhanced. Do you remember? She performed very well.

[Stephen Swinford]

Yes.

[Lara Spirit]

She allowed people to notice her properly,

[Ed Vazy]

I think, but she was a much more minor character then than West Streeting is now. He doesn't need the platform of a leadership election to say, I'm a big player in your party and give me a big job. But, I mean, he's got kind of health written all over it. But he obviously wants to move up Foreign Secretary. I mean, how does it Work, work. David Lammy, by the way, I assume is not going to feature in Andy Burnham.

[Stephen Swinford]

I think the loyalists are going to struggle. So the Starmer loyalists are going to struggle in an Andy Burnham administration. And that would be. You'd think that Steve Reid certainly, who was on Times Radio this morning, is certainly going to be struggling in that administration.

[Lara Spirit]

I mean, those loyalists have made efforts to go up to Makerfield, right? I mean, Lammy was one of the first ones that went up there pretty early on in the Cabinet. Darren Jones was there this week, for example. I mean a real key Starmer loyalist, one of those ones that you would call up at the very last moment and ask to do a morning round when you're having a really bad day. Darren Jones. So I think they, they are, I think there's been an attempt to kind of try and, and show that they are wanting Labour to win that by election. But I think Steve is completely right. I think it's going to be really hard. Remember how many people there are going to be vying for these jobs as well, because also one of the other thing Burnham people say to you is there's actually quite a lot of untapped talent that haven't had jobs that have been overlooked by this, by this government who will not be featuring on necessarily our kind of mental blackboards right now, but will probably emerge emboldened from any great reshuffle. So I think it's going to be really hard for those real hardcore Starmer loyalists to prove that they should have to stay. And then you also have, you know, just, you know, you've got Angela Rayner, you've got Lisa Nandy, you've got Louise Haight, you've got these people who, you know, in the case of Lisa Nandy, already in the Cabinet but who will be, you will be expecting to be finding very big jobs for as well. So very interesting.

[Stephen Swinford]

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