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A
From the Times and the Sunday Times, this is the story. I'm Manveen Rahna. The fragile ceasefire in the Middle east appeared to be unraveling on Sunday evening as Iran and Israel exchanged missile strikes. The violence was met with fury from President Trump, who's been pushing to get a peace deal over the line for weeks.
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I just got off the phone with President Trump to get his reaction to the ongoing missile attack. He told me there was not coordination with Israel and added that he was not happy about it.
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Then, almost as suddenly as the escalation had begun, Iran announced its military operations had ended. Hours later, Israel said it would refrain from further strikes against Iran for now. The Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu addressed the nation.
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If the terrorist regime makes the mistake of attacking us again, we will respond with force because Israel has the full right to self defense and we exercise it whenever necessary.
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For this battle hardened political survivor, the stakes couldn't be higher. For all the dangers of losses on the battlefield, he faces an even greater peril if the war ends with a general election due later this year and an ongoing corruption trial at home. But the war itself is creating an even bigger threat now, a growing rift in his relationship with the White House.
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Axios quoted Trump as saying, bibi, you better be careful or you will be on your own very soon.
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So why is Netanyahu risking his relationship with his greatest ally? And how much are pressures at home dictating Israel's stance in the war? The story today, the ticking time bomb facing Netanyahu at home.
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The news came through first that missiles had been fired from Iran to northern Israel. I was watching the news at the time, the main Israeli channel. I think there was a collective. Here we go again feeling.
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Gabby Weiniger is based in Tel Aviv and has been covering the war for the Times.
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And it was not clear how short it would be, how long it would be, where they would hit. I packed a bag. I have two babies here, so I packed lots of nappies and a shelter bag, or a go bag as we call it in journalism. And I went to bed. I thought I better get some sleep because, you know, the alarms might start any moment now. Two in the morning, three in the morning, woke up in the morning, there was an alarm at 4:30 in the morning, 6:30 in the morning, and no damages and no injuries were caused. It was a very much kind of waiting for what's going to happen.
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A
And Gabby, just remind us why that sort of tit for tat exchange of missiles had happened. How did we get there.
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C
Well, the ceasefire has been very fragile since it was signed two months ago. Iran has said that it will come to the defence of its proxy militia, Hezbollah, who are the Shia militia in Lebanon. They said that if Israel attacks Beirut and their stronghold in southern Beirut of Dahir, then they will respond to Israel in kind, making Hezbollah kind of the key in terms of will this ceasefire hold or will it fall apart? Can the deal include Hezbollah or not? Israel's not going to stand for that. Israel's saying Hezbollah. Hezbollah is a separate arena. We need to deal with what's on our border our own way, and not be led by America. Iran is trying to bring Hezbollah into the equation so that it will be part of the deal. And that's really what we saw yesterday, that kind of Lebanon linchpin, if you like, coming into fruition and coming into reality.
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How did President Trump respond to that? Because that's exactly the sort of thing he's been trying to avoid with the peace talks.
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He wasn't happy about it, but I think, again, I believe it was a bit of political theater. It was expected. Trump knew that if Netanyahu was going to attack Beirut, suddenly a red line for Iran, then Iran would retaliate, and it was a contained retaliation on both sides. So while Trump said that he wasn't happy about it, he also said, I'm going to call Netanyahu, I'm going to tell him not to attack Iran. He said that Israel had planes on the way to attack Iran when they sent them back. That's a similar story to how the hostilities ended last year, where Trump also said, there's a sudden ceasefire and Israeli pilots did an about turn midair and came back to Israel, came back to the Israeli air base. So Israel, it's Trump's way of saving face. It's Trump's way of saying, I'm in control of this situation, I can control Netanyahu, I can control Iran, and we are close to a deal, which, of course, we've been hearing for the past two months.
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So, Gabi, it does sound like this whole exchange of fire was, you know, very controlled. Do we know how it ended? Was it Donald Trump intervening that made both Iran and Israel step back?
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The first I heard of it was the Iranian message coming out on Monday afternoon saying, you know, as far as we're concerned, we have retaliated. And I think then, you know, Trump probably did pick up the phone to Netanyahu and say, this is over, this round is over and we're going back to negotiations. That that's how it played out. So I think it was in everyone's interest to just rein it in. At that moment, Donald Trump was all
- [06:27]
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over Truth Social immediately saying both sides, Israel and Iran, are looking to do an immediate ceasefire. Lots of capital letters, obviously, of course. Why is this tension arising? Why is it that every time Donald Trump says he's nearly at a peace deal, Netanyahu sort of, you know, launches another assault on Lebanon, for example? What's going on?
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Well, when it comes to Lebanon, it's a very sensitive issue for Israelis who have been entangled in southern Lebanon and against Hezbollah, I should say, for decades. And I think the Israeli public is seeing that quagmire come up again. And they're seeing, once again, Israel's entangled in Lebanon, trying to solve the problem through military might, losing soldiers on an almost daily basis. The idea of leaving Lebanon alone or leaving it to Trump to negotiate in the Iran deal will be unacceptable for, for the Israeli people whose sons and fathers and uncles and cousins are all soldiers, and for the right wing coalition in Benjamin Netanyahu's party as well, and including his opposition. They are saying Netanyahu has not been tough enough on Hezbollah and on Lebanon.
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A
And those attacks on Lebanon, which obviously, you know, is a long running issue, they do seem to escalate every time it looks like Donald Trump is closer to a peace deal. Is this about Netanyahu not having any say in that? You know, are there things happening in those negotiations that Netanyahu will not like? Are there red lines that will be crossed for him?
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C
I think you're certainly right about that, Manveen. I think there is a bad deal on the table as far as Israel is concerned. The Iranian regime are here to stay. And I think Netanyahu has accepted that, even though that was an original war goal to overturn that regime. Things that were previously on the table, like their ballistic missile program which threatens Israel, like their aiding of proxies, including Hezbollah and the Houthis in Yemen, those things are off the table. So what's on the table now? The nuclear deal? Well, that's looking very similar to the deal that President Obama signed with the JCPOA in 2015 that was then torn up by US President Donald Trump. Israel needs no sunset clauses on the Iranian nuclear program, which they see as an existential threat to their existence. This clause is really, really important because it puts a deadline on when Iran can restart enriching uranium. Netanyahu doesn't believe that he's going to get those things in this deal. So the continuation of the conflict puts him firstly in a position where he's defending Israel and also makes sure that he puts off this potential bad deal for Israel.
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And since the weekend, you know, Israeli analysts keep saying the equation has changed. Is there a sense for Hezbollah too? You know, Iran always said that Lebanon was part of the peace deal. Is there a sense for Hezbollah that actually if they now attack Israel, Israel, if it attacks back, will be in trouble with America? Has that changed the equation for them?
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I think that's certainly part of it. I can see that they're driving a wedge between Israel and their main backer, their patron, their military patron, who provides Israel with most of their defensive weaponry. They can drive that wedge in between Israel and America and kind of break that bond in some way and therefore strengthen their bond with their patron, Iran. They can see Iran coming to their defense. And to see that they are almost the deciding factor when it comes to whether this ceasefire will hold and whether this deal will go through, I think that's given them a lot of power.
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For Netanyahu, this war with Iran, it's kind of the culmination of a 30 year career where he has built Iran up as the great enemy. This is the moment he's kind of been waiting for, and yet it hasn't quite turned out the way he would have wanted. Is there a sense that this campaign has gone from, you know, the crowning glory of his career in politics to somehow a massive strategic failure?
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I don't think he sees it that way. This has been his reason for existence, the fight against Iran, the existential threat that Iran poses to the existence of Israel. I think he wants to win back his title as Mr. Security. He wants to change the face of the Middle East. I think that he wants to see the Iranian regime weakened and perhaps lay the groundwork for another uprising, as we saw in January. I don't think that idea has been pooh, poohed completely. Certainly it has been by much of the Israeli establishment and the intelligence community community, but not by Netanyahu. I don't think he sees it as a failure. And I also think it's important to note that the Israeli public don't see it as a failure. They agree, the vast majority of Israel, and despite how difficult it is to live under wartime conditions, they agree with the war, they don't agree with the ceasefire. They do believe that Iran is an existential threat to Israel and they are willing to suffer the consequences of, of war on society, on the economy, on their personal lives and Netanyahu knows that, too. He's very attuned to the public opinion.
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In the last few days, Donald Trump told the Financial Times, I call the shots. Netanyahu doesn't call the shots. He doesn't seem very impressed with a lot of Netanyahu's actions in the last few days. There was that phone call last week which we covered on the podcast. Is there a sense that that relationship is fraying?
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C
We've seen spats time and time again between Netanyahu and Trump, and that grave's been dug several times, and yet they still continue to talk. They still continue to pick up the phone. We know Donald Trump is blunt. He did use expletives against Netanyahu, according to Axios. Does that mean that that's dead and buried? I don't think so. Trump knows that Netanyahu needs to show that Israel will fight back against Hezbollah and will fight back against Iran and will retaliate. As for Trump's domestic considerations, he knows this war is unpopular. He needs to be showing that he doesn't listen to Netanyahu, who, as you correctly mentioned, led him down the garden path with the idea that the regime is going to fall. He can sell to his public that that's not who he's listening to, that the war is over, that he is victorious, that there is a deal in the making. And I think Trump is well aware of the domestic constraints that Netanyahu is facing as well as his own. And they are playing this out according to their own playbook, which they have invented.
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You know, I mean, there have been some very ugly moments. That phone call that was reported last week, you know, part of it. Donald Trump did say, everyone hates you now everyone hates Israel. How did that go down in Israel? What did people make of it?
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I think it just was confirmation bias for many Israelis who believe that everyone hates Israel. Israelis know that they're not popular. Israelis know that they're seen as genocidal. And the actions in Gaza have been widely condemned across the board in all different countries. The Jewish communities are also on the brunt of Israel's actions in the Diaspora. So I think the fact that Donald Trump said that to Netanyahu wasn't a shock to Israelis. It probably wasn't a shock to Netanyahu, and it didn't. It wouldn't have moved them, I believe.
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Coming up, how much are the looming elections and the threat of his corruption trial influencing Netanyahu's policies? That's in just a moment. Gabby, you wrote this week that Netanyahu is the great political survivor. How has he managed to stay in power for so long?
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He's sold himself in many different ways to the Israeli public over the past few decades. I think it's 18 cumulative years that he's been in power. He was first voted into office in the 90s in 1996. Most recently, he was voted in on the ticket of being Mr. Security. Now he's taken a card out of Donald Trump's playbook and he's saying that the right wing of Israel is under attack by the leftist community, the leftist institutions, particularly the Supreme Court. And he's saying he's under a political witch hunt, saying so he's been able to evolve and adapt and to sell himself to the Israeli public, often using fear, the fear of Iran, the fear of there was a campaign in 2021 of Arabs coming to vote in droves. He uses fear to garner. He knows that he is a bit like Marmite. You either love him or you hate him. But he needs to keep the right wing support. He needs to keep the haredes, the ultra orthodox parties, in his pocket. So much so that he is willing to go against much of the Israeli public in making a deal with them that they will not serve in the Israeli army despite the compulsory conscription. So he's really willing to take whatever bedfellows will serve him. And we saw that in the last elections when he joined forces with Itamar Bengvir and Betzal Smotrich, who have been sanctioned by much of the international community for their ultra nationalist, violent views against the Palestinians. He's willing to do what it takes to stay in power. And that also applies to his personal corruption trial. By using the security situation to get out of showing up to court, he will do whatever it takes not to go down and to stay on top. That is Bibi Netanyahu, and that's why he's the great political survivor.
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A
So, Gabby, you mentioned there, he obviously has these looming elections where he has to keep these different constituencies on board, including the ultra orthodox. And he's got the threat of the corruption trial. Just remind us about that. Where are things in terms of the corruption charges he faces?
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C
He was actually in court last week on the corruption trial. There are three active cases that are currently ongoing around corruption and breach of trust. They include handing out favors in exchange for positive news coverage, accepting extravagant gifts from billionaires, including cigars and jewelry for his wife, Sarah Netanyahu. The court case has been stretched out since 2016. I should say the police case, not the court case. It's been a long, long running trial and it doesn't seem to be coming to a close anytime soon. He can drag it out a lot, lot longer as well. He has used the war in Gaza, he's used the war in Iran to get out of showing up to court. And he will do anything not to show up and to get out of this trial, including asking for a pardon, which, you know, we haven't heard back from the Israeli president, Isaac Herzog, who was implored by US President Donald Trump to grant Netanyahu a pardon. Actually, Trump brought that up the other day and said, I've got you out of jail. Bibi, I think Netanyahu is well aware of this hanging over his head and he wants this over with and he wants it put to bed without accepting any responsibility, without admitting any wrongdoing. Of course, he does deny all those charges against him. I think that that's why these upcoming elections in autumn are going to be so telling and so crucial. I think they are some of the most decisive elections that Israel has ever seen. When we're going to see a vote on Netanyahu and whether he succeeded to survive despite the corruption trials, despite the failure of October 7, despite the three years of almost endless wars, will he survive that too?
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And Gabi, it's so interesting because, you know, as Donald Trump put it in that phone call last week, Netanyahu, you know, his reputation has nosedived internationally. He is seen as a villain. You know, as Trump said, everyone hates you. Now, this is a man who is wanted by the ICC for war crimes. How is he seen now in Israel? How is he viewed by the electorate?
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Again, I think people are either in the pro Bibi camp or the anti Bibi camp, the Marmite factor. They either love him and they would do anything for him, and they believe that Bibi is the king of Israel. That's something that's often chanted. People believe that Netanyahu is the only person that can lead Israel, that can face off against the enemies and can unite the country. Of course, his critics will say the absolute opposite when it comes to the international criticism, particularly the icc. I think, again, that's another case of confirmation bias. The Israelis don't agree that he's a war criminal. The Israelis think that the ICC and the UN and other international institutions are stacked against Israel and have inherent anti Israel bias. So the fact that he's not liked abroad, it doesn't move them either way. That's not one of the factors that the public take into account. What they will take into account is October 7, particularly because these elections are still scheduled to be held by the end of October. That's a very fraught month for Israelis who will be holding commemoration ceremonies for October 7th. I mean, even you just say the month of October and I think all Israelis minds would go to the seventh. So having the elections in that month is going to be difficult for Netanyahu, but bringing them earlier will also be difficult because as I said before, he wants to play the long game. So postponing the elections would probably be something on his mind at the moment and one of the options that he could go for.
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If the war is still going by October, is it possible for him to extend the deadline by which he's supposed to hold elections? Could he say this is an emergency period?
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He could. It's not easy to do and you have to get it voted on by many members of parliament, but it's not unheard of. David Ben Gurion, Israel's first prime minister, did that in 1948. The elections were called off and held four months later. That's a long time in war speak. So it's not unprecedented. I think his critics would warn that he was doing it for the wrong reasons and not because of war, but rather to usurp the current democratic institutions that Israel relies on, that Israel is built on. And they would cite his attempts at judicial reform and the sackings of much of Israel's intelligence community, people he sees as disloyal to him or disloyal to his version of what he sees as the Israeli state. So I think those are the accusations against him on that front.
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And we should say that those attempts at judicial reform, as he called it, were seen as very anti democratic by much of the Israeli population. He is clearly desperate to hang on to power, as you've highlighted. You know, the war gives him the prospect potentially of delaying the elections or at least sort of trying to win people round. It also keeps him out of court a little bit longer. From the Netanyahu camp, what do you think the aim is? I mean, what are the things he's hoping to achieve before Israel goes to the ballot box?
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I mean, Netanyahu's wish list would be more open support from America. It would be changing the face of the Middle east, expanding the Abraham Accords to particularly to Saudi Arabia. That would be a huge victory for him and to continue the course that he set Israel upon since October 2023, which is defeating the enemies by military might alone and not by diplomatic means. There are for example, negotiations going on between the Lebanese government and Israel in Washington. I don't think that that's particularly top of Netanyahu's agenda peace deal. In fact, Israel's actually expanded its borders by some 5% since October 2023 in southern Syria, in southern Lebanon, in Gaza. I think that's very important to him and that's what he wants to continue to do, to show that Israel's the mightiest of all in the region. And that's what he's looking to achieve by diplomatic means, possibly only after he's been victorious on the battlefield.
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A
And Gabi, as you say, you know, in real military terms, there has been a 5% increase in Israeli territory. We know Netanyahu always sort of sold a sort of an expansionist plan. He had a map of Greater Israel. This sort of seems to be on track for achieving some of that. At the same time, many Israelis would say there is sort of a greater strategic defeat in the fact that he's lost so much global support and in the way that Israel is now seen by so many around the world. Is there a sense that this might have been the wrong strategy, this could lead to a greater loss?
- [23:25]
C
I think Israelis don't see it like that. I can understand why it would be seen like that in a wider perspective, but Israelis don't believe that they started this war. They look at October 7th as an example of if you give Israel's enemies a chance, they will maim, massacre and kidnap your people. They will not allow Israel to exist. And therefore Israel has to be strong militarily. And that's why there's so much willingness to conscript to the army. I think that Netanyahu's critics would say we need a strong army and we need a diplomatic solution, a diplomatic way out of this. And I think Netanyahu is not going down that diplomatic path. And that's why where he's failed in his strategy, there is no long term vision other than to hold territory, to vanquish the enemies and to continue the status quo and to stay in power and to keep the right wing on top. There have been no meaningful peace talks with the Palestinians under Netanyahu. He does not support the idea of a Palestinian state. I think his critics and also those who he has sacked from Israel's institutions believe that a Palestinian state must happen and it's on the horizon. That's the only way to keep Israel safe long term. Netanyahu will never, ever allow for something like that to happen. And that's why he will hold on to the current status quo by all means. And he will champion that during his election campaign, that he will not allow a Palestinian state, that he will not allow his enemies to have land back. Those are things that the right wing of Israel believe in. The question is more is Netanyahu as a personality, the person to continue to run the country after so many years of, of leadership, or is there going to be a change of gu.
- [25:27]
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That was Gabrielle Weiniger, our correspondent in Tel Aviv, and you can find all her latest dispatches online@thetimes.com the producer today was Sophie McNulty, the executive producer was Edward Drummond, sound design was by Dave Creasy, and theme composition was by Malicetto. If you want to get in touch with us about this or any other episode, do drop us a line to the story@thetimes.com thanks for listening. We'll be back as usual tomorrow.
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C
Sam.