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The Team House
CIA Officer Busted With $40 Million in Gold Bars | EYES ON GEOPOLITICS
01:08:05
The guys break down the still-unresolved Iran ceasefire talks, the Strait of Hormuz crisis, possible sanctions relief, and whether the U.S. is about to reward Tehran just to return to the status quo. They also dig into nuclear inspections, Iran’s...
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- [00:00]
Mark Polymeropoulos
What's up, y'? All? Summer's got a different tempo.
- [00:03]
Host (possibly Bretzky)
Everything's a little looser, brighter.
- [00:05]
Mark Polymeropoulos
One plan turns into another. You hear something, you stay a little longer. Next thing you know, you're somewhere you didn't plan to be. It's those in between moments. That's where the ideas hit.
- [00:16]
Host (possibly Bretzky)
Conversations stretch out.
- [00:17]
Mark Polymeropoulos
Little memories sneak up on you. Sometimes it's just about what's in your hand.
- [00:23]
Host (possibly Bretzky)
That color, that chill. The new Tropical Butterfly refresher from Starbucks. Guava and passion fruit flavors with mango pineapple flavored pearl. Yeah, that feels like summer before you even taste it.
- [00:36]
Mark Polymeropoulos
Funny how one small stop becomes the best part of the day. Start your summer rhythm with Starbucks.
- [00:43]
Host (possibly Bretzky)
Try the new Tropical Butterfly refresher from Starbucks.
- [00:49]
Lady Luck
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- [01:13]
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- [01:20]
Host (possibly Bretzky)
Hey, everybody. Welcome to another episode of Eyes on Geopolitics. I'm here with Mick Mulroy, Mark Polymeropoulos, Jonathan Hackett. Good, good, good ratio here. Two verse, two, which is good. Two Marines, two Greeks. Missed you guys. Mark, everybody. Jonathan and Mick guys have been, you know, out there, you know, shaking, shucking and driving. Anyway, a lot happening as usual. Iranian ceasefire still up in the air. Last I heard, President Trump was mulling over whether to accept it. All the reports that are coming out are saying that both sides are very far apart. There's talks about a $300 billion fund for the Iranians. It's crazy, it's nonsense. But obviously the Strait of Hormuz still kind of closed. We have traded, you know, we bombed them, they like shot at the Kuwaiti base. There's been a little bit of like some kinetic action going on as well. So very much still up in the air. Let's start off with that, obviously, and then I'll, that'll like dovetail right into like Israel going past the Latani river in Lebanon. Isra, Israel really stepping up the bombing and stuff like that in Lebanon. My guess is to try and you guys can correct me if I'm wrong, but kind throw a wrench into the any kind of ceasefire negotiation because it looks like Iran wants the Lebanon issue with Israel to be covered in that. And I don't think Israel is exactly amped about that. So, Mick, I'm going to let you go first because I haven't seen you in a while and I miss you.
- [02:52]
Mark Polymeropoulos
Yeah, I was at a couple weddings.
- [02:55]
Host (possibly Bretzky)
Congratulations.
- [02:56]
Mark Polymeropoulos
Yeah. My son and close friend of mine. Well, let's start with the straight of Hormuz, right? So I think it's, you know, we have this discussion in terms of the US And Iran and obviously Israel, but I think it's important to start off saying like this is affecting the entire world, right? So not only is the energy prices going up around the world, which of course makes deep increases the cost for everything. Countries are now starting to run out of their reserve fuel. There's also about 30% of the nitrogen comes out of this, which is key for food production. So now food's going to cost more and there's going to be less of it, which means it's going to cost even more. The countries in the global south are going to start feeling the pinch even higher. It'll just mean less food available in the US and other developed countries. It's going to mean more expensive food. And, you know, we do all we do humanitarian food aid delivery. So kind of stick to this really closely. This is affecting every country in the world, and I think we ought to start viewing it that way. All the parties involved, and I think the rest of the world should start weighing in a lot more forcefully on the Strait itself. You can completely disagree if you want to, on the US Reasons for going to war, but you should be completely against the idea that a country can simply claim sovereignty over international waterway just because they happen to been attacked by another country. Because it's affecting people, real people around the world. And what I mean by that is the UN should start, you know, I know resolutions. What do they mean? Well, they mean something or they wouldn't do them. So under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, the Strait of Hormutz is an international waterway. So that's the basis. And then I think countries should start preparing to do whatever is necessary to open up the Strait. And I know that most countries, if not all countries wouldn't want to do this militarily. It doesn't even seem like we do. But we've got to be preparing for clearing the Strait of Mines. There's reports this morning that more mines have been laid. NATO has two standing mine clearance groups, amphibious groups, north and south. They should be being prepared they should be moving that direction if you ask me, because ultimately that has to be open and it has to be open with unfettered access for the gate of the globe. So that's the first point I make again at the end of the day, I mean I want the US to be successful on this. I'm obviously not going to agree with all the policy decisions, but ultimately I want the US to be successful. I want Iran, the regime, at least not to be. But we're on a path where that's still unclear. So the question of course is what are we willing to offer for the strait to be open? The strait was obviously open before we started the war. I don't think Iran should get anything for opening the strait. I think they might. The only thing they could get to be a benefit would be a inning of the blockade of their ports. That to me seems somewhat extra. But giving them sanctions relief, giving them access to frozen assets. I think there's 12 billion apparently in Qatar or as you mentioned, I think in the lead up D this 300 million investment, that's just reparations, guys. If companies wanted to invest in Iran, they wouldn't. And maybe they would if there wasn't a regime. But I think that's a complete mistake. Not only because it would be paying them to do something that they don't have the authority to do, which is control the strait. And it would firmly, especially the 300 billion, it would firmly embed the regime. The very regime that says death to America and death to Iran would then be permanently in place. Right. If you gave them access to that much money and what would they do? They would rebuild the everything, anything that we gain from this, like the degradation of the ballistic missile capacity and manufacturing and suicide drone, et cetera in the Navy and Air Force. We'd be given them the money to rebuild the whole thing. So, and to be fair, we actually don't know if that's in the mou. So I'm only commenting based on media reports. But if that is, obviously we're going to have to give them sanction relief. But that should only come if we have a new nuclear agreement. And that nuclear agreement has to be more restrictive than the jcpoa. If not, then people are going to say why the hell did we get out of the JCPOA 2018? Because at that time we had uranium enriched 3.67%. Now because we got out of it, one could make the argument we have 1,000 pounds enriched to 60%. So now we're trying to get that back at the same time we're trying to get them to accept no enrichment when one could have made the argument, although we can't go back in time, we could have just tried to improve the JCPOA rather than just blow it up, which was more political than policy. But anyway, so we'll have to see where this is. But I think the. Where I'd end on this is it seems that we're getting further apart, that we're not getting closer to a deal, that we're either going to have a long stalemate or we're going to have a return to major air operations. And if that's the case, I don't see it necessarily helping push forward our policy objectives. So we just might be in this for the long.
- [08:31]
Host (possibly Bretzky)
Whoever wants it, takes it, baby.
- [08:33]
Mick Mulroy
Go ahead, Jonathan.
- [08:35]
Jonathan Hackett
Yeah, I think we're kind of moving toward rewarding them at our own expense for our own actions. It's like an interesting logical series of steps where, you know, action A is the US does something, Iran responds and the US rewards Iran for responding to go back to the way things were before actor A acted, which is kind of a strange sequence of events. And of course we can't go back in time like you said, Mick, but we can look forward and think about what actions do we take next and what results do those actions have. And if we reward one actor, Iran, for what it's doing with the Straits, basically exerting sovereignty over international waters, that's not just an Iran problem. It's a problem in Singapore, Malaysia, Egypt and Panama telling other countries that, hey, if you behave this way for long enough, the US or another country that's powerful will, will give you a concession to allow you to keep control over the thing you have now that you shouldn't have had in the first place. That's, that's a huge concern. And of course with Iran, that it will remain a concern with Iran, but it will also trickle over to other countries too. And we can't predict how the world's going to be ordered in 50 years, 75 years, 100 years. You know, right now Indonesia is a friend. In the 50s, Indonesia was not necessarily a friend when we had the Non Aligned Movement, other things going on. So that is a huge place. But 30 to 60% of all world goods travel through the Straits of Malacca. And if Malaysia or Indonesia decide that they have something that's not aligned with the interests of the west, there's going to be a challenge there. Sorry, my dehumidifier was, was beeping There in the back. But, yeah, I know it's actually very cold here. It was 48 degrees yesterday. It felt like fall. It's crazy. But back to the nuclear issue, you
- [10:14]
Mark Polymeropoulos
know, you had Connecticut.
- [10:16]
Jonathan Hackett
Yeah, it's Connecticut, man. It's fall here or winter, one of the two. But the uranium. I just saw recently that Kazakhstan was named as a country to potentially take the enriched uranium in addition to China. I think it's just very interesting because we're thinking about sending this uranium to two countries that we have very little monitoring capability over. So if we send it to China, there is a possibility that is non zero that that uranium either ends up back in Iran or ends up in a way that Iran can continue working with it even if it's not in Iran. We've had similar issues with the North Korean scientists and Pakistani scientists. So it's like, are we sending it to a country that we can control or not? And if the problem is that we don't have control or monitoring capability like the IAEA has complained about and is true, we're not really solving that problem either. We're just putting it somewhere else into a similar problem set, perhaps a worse one, because China's far more powerful than Iran in a variety of ways. So if China begins acting badly with this uranium, there's even less we can do about it. Clearly, China is not affected by sanctions. If they were, the oil issue we see right now would not be happening. China's been benefiting, and so has Iran, but been benefiting from the sanctions going on since February 28th. And when I say Iran, I don't mean the people. I mean the government, the small amount of people that are controlling the country right now. And as you mentioned, Mick got the $12 billion of asset possibly being unfrozen. We have a $300 billion reparation fund. There's sanctions relief. All three of these things that are being mentioned benefit only one class of society, and it's the small managerial class and ownership class in Iran, which is like, you know, estimates vary, but let's say 10% or less of the people in the country, all of whom are very much against the United States, very much against the west, seeing this as a victory. And if you can see the propaganda on the Persian language side, you would understand what I mean by this. I was just listening to someone in Iran speaking yesterday, and they noted that, or they asked, are things as expensive as they say they are in the rest of the world? Because on the Iranian propaganda side, the propaganda there says that eggs Here are like a hundred dollars for a dozen. They're like this everywhere, all over the place, saying that the west is falling apart, that the US government is completely collapsing. There's been a coup, like all this stuff. And it's like every day, all the time that the Iranian people are seeing and thinking that that's actually what's happening in the outside world. Because remember, they don't have the Internet or if they do, it's filtered. So their view of what's going on is very different than our view of what's going on. And the information domain is a domain that the Iranian government understands very well. And if we keep funding them, they're going to keep maximizing that use of the information domain, which they're doing in English, like on X, when we see the Lego videos. And also the ways that they're actually paying for cultural centers and other things in Europe and the United States and Canada and all these other ways they're understanding the information domain that we are failing. We're going to be funding them to increase that.
- [13:09]
Mark Polymeropoulos
I think it was your idea, Jonathan, before, to have just to do commercial businesses to blast the Internet into Iran. I don't know why we don't do that. We spend all this. So apparently there was a stuff, but we don't.
- [13:22]
Jonathan Hackett
There was a plan.
- [13:24]
Mark Polymeropoulos
Go ahead. Sorry.
- [13:26]
Jonathan Hackett
Yeah, in January there was a plan. $100 billion it would cost for 60 days to completely cover Iran, 24 hours a day in direct to cell communications using a Starlink like form. And the US government, I'm not sure which office shot it down. So there was a pitch for that to actually bring it in and the US decided not to do it also similarly 100 billion because you've got to put up new mesh networks. So like right now the amount of coverage that's up there is not sufficient to actually cover the demand that would be put on it. Because you're thinking like 88 million to 90 million users active per day with video, with voice, with all this data. That's going to be a huge step up from what's currently up there for the limited number of users that are up there, plus the ground station equipment, plus the backbone infrastructure. So there would be some cost to additional cost to actually getting this thing to be sustainable.
- [14:17]
Host (possibly Bretzky)
Jonathan, wasn't there also another thing where like they asked Starlink and Starlink said it was 100 million up front and then I think 500 million over the course for like the first. And the DOD said no bueno on that.
- [14:29]
Jonathan Hackett
That's True.
- [14:30]
Host (possibly Bretzky)
Yeah.
- [14:31]
Jonathan Hackett
Yeah. That was like a Ukraine model that they had already tested out, basically, and seen that it works in extremists.
- [14:35]
Host (possibly Bretzky)
Nothing.
- [14:37]
Jonathan Hackett
And I also heard.
- [14:38]
Host (possibly Bretzky)
Nothing.
- [14:39]
Jonathan Hackett
I heard that the Kurds with the weapons issue, remember that, that there was a lot of talk about what's going on with the Kurds. I read recently about a week ago, that apparently Turkey is the one that vetoed that because they saw the Kurds getting hands on weapons and they're very concerned about what would happen after they won.
- [14:56]
Mark Polymeropoulos
History, Mark. In my life, going back decades, it's always about us giving guns to the Kurds.
- [15:03]
Mick Mulroy
So let me just my kind of quick $0.02 on this, because I think that you guys kind of made a lot of sense. Just first and foremost, Trump doesn't want to go back to any kind of armed conflict, period, which I think we can. It is absolutely clear. I'm not sure what the Pentagon is briefing him, but I would imagine CENTCOM is also saying that they've gone through 70% of the target list. Anything else they can hit is not going to actually affect Iranian regime behavior, because I think it won't. And so even the notion of a return to armed conflict doesn't actually make any sense militarily. And at the same time, the Iranians want, obviously, the Strait of Hormuz as a card, but they need sanctions relief. And so that's what they're going to get and almost did get. And then Trump panicked, because if you saw this kind of outcry from the right, whether it's Lindsey Graham or Mark Dibowitz from Freedom of Defense and Democracy, or Mark Thiessen or Hugh Hewitt, Mike Pompeo, there was kind of this outrage that we were about to do a JCPOA 2.0, which is actually what we are going to do. There's no other option on this right now. And so the New York Times had a piece this morning which I think is probably accurate, saying that Trump heard all this criticism. And then they came back now with a response to the Iranians strengthening the notion of until you get rid of some of the nuke stuff, we're not giving you any sanctions relief and the Iranians are going to reject this probably. And so if you remember, literally a week ago last weekend, there was all sorts of optimism for a deal because Trump wanted out. And then things leaked in terms of the sanctions relief. And then it really does. I mean, the Republican talking point, Mick, from your time with JCPOA was we gave bags of money or whatever. It was millions flying in jets to the Iranians. Well, all that of course, is simplistic. It's a little more complicated, but essentially they're going to replicate this. And so I think that's why we're in this position now and we're kind of stuck. And so I'm not sure how this gets resolved other than Trump actually caving because the Iranians need that sanctions relief, period. The other piece of this is I think just going through and indeed you and I might have talked about it last week. So forgive me for saying this again, but go through a checklist of five or six questions regardless of where you are in this, just fundamental questions. Number one, you know, has Iran actually been thwarted in an attempt to get a nuclear weapon right now? What's the answer to that? Probably not. Number two, is the Iranian regime more or less hardline now? Eh, arguably more hardline. Not good. Is Iran still a threat to the US and our allies both in the conventional military, which is ballistic missiles and drones, and then asymmetric cyber and terrorism? The answer is yeah, still not degraded enough. Again, is the Iranian regime more firmly entrenched if we give them sanctions relief? The answer will be yes. How about, you know, has Iran now gained a geostrategic card they can always use in the future? Regardless, there's an agreement. They now know closing the Strait of Hormuz works. Check. Are our Gulf allies actually reconsidering security arrangements? Absolutely. Trump went crazy a couple days ago and I can't believe Dee, when we went over kind of our. In the pre brief, what we're gonna talk about. I don't even know if the Oman thing, threatening to bomb Oman, which watching that press conference, I was like, man, he made a mistake there. He meant Iran. Wait, that was the Cabinet meeting? No, it was Oman, cuz the State Department retweeted it. That's psychotic. So what about our security arrangements where the Saudis are running around trying to, you know, I think everybody's cutting deals. They got Pakistani forces on Saudi territory, you know, in Saudi territory. The UAE has the IDF now deployed in the Emirates. And so everyone's cutting their own deals because we don't seem like a solid partner. And then the last piece and the one Jonathan. Actually everyone here, Jonathan, Mick and D, I think you all agree on, and this goes to why we are good people and good Americans is what I care about most in all of this is the Iranian people. January 13th is when Trump made that statement. Help is on its way. There is nothing that suggests we are doing anything for that in Fact, if there is kind of a deal, it's gonna mean the regime kind of stays in. And that's yet another long line in the betrayal the US Government has had in the region. So when you go through kind of those checklists, those just key questions, it's hard to make any argument that anything is actually better off right now. Did we degrade the Iranian. I mean, I can't believe people are saying this. Did we degrade the Iranian Air Force and Navy? Sure. The Iranian Air Force and Navy. Are you kidding me? These are not entities that we all thought were a threat to the United States. And so, you know, I hate the notion when we say the US Lost this work because I think that's really simplistic. I don't like hearing that. That's, that kind of, that doesn't even make a lot of sense. But because. And in armed conflict, everything's really murky, but we certainly didn't win. And so we're kind of in this kind of odd situation right now. And so, you know, we'll see where this goes. But the other thing too is, you know, the foreign policy by true social post, I mean, it just is so kind of old and tiring right now. And either you read Barack, Ravid and Axios on what the administration is thinking, or you read Trump's true social posts. And the days of actually figuring out that this is being done by normal individuals in the national security counter meeting, that's long gone.
- [20:35]
Host (possibly Bretzky)
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- [22:13]
Mick Mulroy
Love you.
- [22:14]
Host (possibly Bretzky)
Bye.
- [22:16]
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- [22:46]
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Mick Mulroy
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Mick Mulroy
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Jonathan Hackett
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- [23:45]
Mark Polymeropoulos
businesscredit so question for you, Mark. You said, and I think you're correct, of course, that if we give sanctuary for opening the straight, obviously the far right, especially the hawks, are going to be opposed. But doesn't it seem like everybody across the political spectrum is going to be opposed to this? We've basically just given them money for opening something they shouldn't have closed, but
- [24:08]
Mick Mulroy
that's the only way this will get resolved. And I say this, I mean, Trump's stuck. The Iranians are not going to agree to anything but that, and they don't have to.
- [24:18]
Host (possibly Bretzky)
Yeah, why would they? They're holding the cards, guys. Yeah.
- [24:22]
Mark Polymeropoulos
If we do it, we've essentially said that this is a fail. The whole thing's failed.
- [24:29]
Mick Mulroy
Yeah, but that's that.
- [24:30]
Mark Polymeropoulos
I think that's the way history is going to view it. So we've then given them money, which is sanctions relief.
- [24:34]
Mick Mulroy
Right.
- [24:34]
Mark Polymeropoulos
They get money. It goes to, like you all said, it goes to 10% of the population. So that's going to firmly embed themselves into your last point, Mark. And what are they going to do? They're going to use it to oppress the Iranian people.
- [24:47]
Mick Mulroy
Right, Right. So, I mean, the policy options for Trump are, you know, everything is political. And so the midterms are coming up, the price of gas is high, inflation is up. I mean, he needs this thing to end, and the only way for it to end is to reward the Iranians in some kind of compromise. And I hate that. But he got himself in this box, but he's in a pickle. And, Mick, I mean, I've used your kind of line a zillion times, and all sorts of media stuff is, you know, there's no kind of, you know, silver bullet or kind of magic bullet, you know, magic toy or whatever it is. Whatever you said before, I loved and I used. But there's no good options right now. If there was, we'd be advocating for it. If you told me that another three weeks of bombing would bring the Iranians to their knees, I would be like, all right, fine. But it's just. I don't think anybody even assesses that anymore. And certainly Centcom doesn't. But centcom's gonna do the right thing when basically the President says, I'm interested in going back at it. What are you gonna hit? Okay, here's what we're gonna hit. I mean, they're going to give him targets if he wants to go down that line. But I don't just know. I don't know. I mean, we're in a bind right now. This is one of those kind of paradoxes where I really don't know what we actually can do to further US Interests at this point. I don't know. If you guys do. If you were sitting in your old jobs, what would you advocate that we do? Because again, knowing the. I mean, you have to assess Iranian behavior. You guys know Iran, you know, and they, you know, their view is that, in my sense, that they can hold out much longer than we can. They can. They have more patience than us. They don't care about the Iranian people. The Iranian economy's a mess. Okay, that's all right. But the midterms are coming up, and Trump is gonna get clobbered unless he doesn't give a shit at all. But if that was the case, I think we'd continue on kind of a harder line. Policies. I don't know. I'm not, you know, it's always good to. It's always easy to criticize. But in terms, if someone gave you, like, what's the policy prescription of this? I don't know, guys. I don't know what I would say.
- [26:42]
Mark Polymeropoulos
What else can we do economically? I mean, unless we just want to concede and start giving them money, which I don't think is in our interest. I mean, what else can we do to put pressure on them that doesn't involve restarting the air campaign, which I think you're right. I mean, I don't, I don't. I think centcom's telling them, like, look, we can bomb stuff, but ultimately we're just depleting our, our munitions, and it's not going to affect a policy change.
- [27:10]
Mick Mulroy
Give them a year of squeezing them, sure, but then the international economy is destroyed. You know, it is, but these are
- [27:16]
Mark Polymeropoulos
things that should have been worked out in the NSC process. Right? Anybody in the NSC would have said they're going to close the straight. They're going to close out.
- [27:26]
Host (possibly Bretzky)
On the podcast with four of us, we worked it out. You know, it's like, so either we'd
- [27:31]
Mark Polymeropoulos
be willing to force it open militarily, which is a big decision. I think we could do it. But I mean, being able to and should is two different things. Or we're willing to tough it out, but we're also bringing the world.
- [27:44]
Mick Mulroy
Let's put 500,000 ground troops and go to war and defeat the Iranian military.
- [27:48]
Host (possibly Bretzky)
Love that idea. Let's do that. Let's do that.
- [27:50]
Mick Mulroy
I'm Saying, but, you know, there are options out there. There are.
- [27:53]
Mark Polymeropoulos
That's an option. That's an option. It's a terrible option.
- [27:55]
Mick Mulroy
It's not palatable.
- [27:56]
Host (possibly Bretzky)
Yeah, that's on Lindsey Graham's mood board. You know what I mean? Like, that's what that is.
- [28:00]
Mick Mulroy
But, you know, defeating a regime via an air campaign very rarely works, if ever. I think Libya is the only sort of model, but it just doesn't work. And so, you know, that, that again, goes to the early assumptions in the war. But, Jonathan, I mean, what if you were sitting in a policy meeting right now? What would you advocate for us to do?
- [28:16]
Jonathan Hackett
Well, I'd be looking at the problem. The current problem is the straits are a challenge. Right. And you know, the question of why are they a challenge? Because Iran is threatening to put them at risk. Not necessarily actually putting them at risk. This is a very important thing. I think yesterday there was just one naval mine that was detected that was tossed overboard to threaten a vessel. That's just one naval mine. Right. So it's the threat of force that's the problem, not the use of force. So if there's a way to actually reduce that threat of force from Iran, I think that's helpful. And when I'm looking at this problem we're talking about, what can the US do, like the ground troops, the sanctions relief, all these things. The real solution is not what the US can do, but what the US and its allies can do. So we're looking at not just the Gulf partners, but also the Combined Maritime Task Force, which is led by the United Kingdom and many other partners, including Japan, that are in that area, that have experienced in that area. The US has been turning its back on its international partners since last year, two years ago, and even further back in time. And rather than walking away from those partners, we need to be walking toward those partners and asking them, hey, actually, we need your help this time. And I know that's a really tough thing to do for the US Government right now because a lot of the narrative has been the opposite of we don't need you and we're going to punish you because you're not helping us, even though we don't want your help, but we're going to punish you for not helping us. There's just a lot of ambivalence. I was with a German delegation two weeks ago from the defense industry in Germany, and they were asking the US Trade representative and some other US Government officials about this. Do you want us to help or not? And the US was saying, well, we have these 10% tariffs, they're very attractive. You can just bring your industry to America and not do it in China. And one of the guys from the German companies, the CEO is like, that doesn't make any sense. Why would I pay more money for more expensive labor to relocate my factory to the United States to avoid your 10% tariff when I could just produce it in Europe or China at a fraction of the cost and have it out faster than if I could do it in the United States? And the US view is that that's nonsense and instead the tariffs would be excused if you just do it in the United States. Completely illogical, but I highlight that.
- [30:07]
Mark Polymeropoulos
And then the tariffs could go away. The next administration, so they would have spent all that money to come to the United States. Even if it did make economic sense, it could be short lived. It could be a tender situation.
- [30:17]
Jonathan Hackett
And that's why I bring this up, because it's not just a military problem, it's an economic problem. The Straits of Hormuz is an economic problem with a military component. But the bigger issue is economics, because as you said, Mick, this is affecting the entire world economically. So the US needs to turn back to its allies and partners and look for their help, not only in the military side of it, but also economically. There's three places in the world that can produce the type of heavy crude that Iran produces. Two of them are outside of the Straits. Norway and Venezuela. Norway's production is extremely low. The Brent crude. Venezuela's has completely aged because of how the infrastructure has gone down over the years. But those are two potential sources where the US could dramatically create incentives for those to increase production. That's one thing. The US could also help with insurance companies by offsetting the costs that insurance companies are incurring by not letting their vessels go through or letting them go through at a very high cost for insurance. This is a war of insurance. It's not a war of bullets and bombs going through the Straits of Hormuz. So if there's a way to incentivize these insurance companies like the insurer for Maersk to send the Maersk vessels through there and be okay with it, the US will agree to offset, kind of like Lend Lease where there's some incentive on both sides for letting this thing happen at an acute cost with a long term benefit. But that doesn't seem to be in the cards right now.
- [31:32]
Mark Polymeropoulos
So wildcard, including the last part. So like this indemnification of these ships. What if the UN passed a resolution Saying we authorize a naval coalition to escort the ships through the strait. It can't be the US because we're a combatant in this. I don't know if any country is going to sign on, but I'm grasping at straws here. If the UN then tells Iran, like, they're coming through and they're going to escort these ships out that are, I don't know, thousands. Right. That are all indemnified, you know, financially, so they accept it, would that potentially work? Would Iran wild card. A wild card on top of a wild card.
- [32:18]
Jonathan Hackett
Yeah, because, you know, the UN's about to run out of money in August, and they're about to have a UN presidential election as well. In August. The US and China combined provide 46% of all funding for all UN activities. This is like a special pocket veto that both China and the US have in the funding. Obviously, the US has been using this veto quite a bit. But this is a problem where just because we authorize it doesn't mean it can happen. And we saw this with Mali, with the Manusma, the Multidimensional International Stabilization Mission in Mali or whatever it was, minusma, where there was this authorization for African countries and other partners to come and help stabilize against isis. And what happened after that, it didn't work. I mean, the country split up and now controlled by isis. So, I mean, we can authorize this stuff. Same with Lebanon. UNSCR 1701 set up the Blue Line 2006 down in Southern Lebanon, and that has not worked either. So there's a lot of aspirational things with the un. But the problem is that states themselves have to agree to actually commit forces and resources to do it. And if the US is already giving the middle finger to the international community, why would the international community come and do something the US could do as a leader? And it's not doing it.
- [33:25]
Mark Polymeropoulos
Yeah, I agree. I realize this is a long shot. The only thing is they have an incentive. Like this isn't. They're not doing us a favor. Right. Like, this is affecting everybody around the world. So when will it get to a point where they'll say, yeah, we'll do it. We'll just. We'll just take the risk because it's impacting them and their people. It's not just doing the us.
- [33:45]
Mick Mulroy
The one thing on that, we have to remember that most of these countries, when we were talking about if the UK or France, you know, what they've agreed upon, I believe, is if, you know, once the war is over, they will do this. But if you're the Prime Minister of Britain or the French president, you are beholden to your electorate. And there's probably three people in the entire country of France and England who thinks that anyone from their military should die for this, for a war the United States started. So I think that's, you know, that's the thing too. So even if, and you do hear kind of behind the scenes, UK defense planners are like, yeah, you know, we do have an interest in here. British Prime Minister get. He's already in big trouble anyway. But I mean, are you kidding me? You know, British sailors dying over a war the US Started, and especially after
- [34:30]
Jonathan Hackett
turning our backs on NATO like we just did recently.
- [34:32]
Mick Mulroy
Yeah. And so why would any. These are democracies and they have their constituencies. And so I think there's no political will. And so you do see people, especially in the right here, you know, screaming that, you know, our allies are not helping us or our allies are democracies. And even if they wanted to, I don't know, I think they would if they're. So if there is this kind of mythical agreement now, you know, would we see this kind of maritime task force takes Holder maybe. But, you know, in, you know, under duress, you know, really, is any, Is, is any country going to actually put their men and women, by the way, because President Trump is sitting there insulting all of the countries that lost forces in Afghanistan and Iraq on a daily basis. Trump is insulting them. And so I mean that just politically, I don't see it happening in many of these European states unless there is some kind of, you know, a. More when I say it's not peace. Because by the way, this 60 day MOU is just a, it's a ceasefire agreement. The idea that it's a deal is also preposterous. And let me just throw one other thing in here. I know we got some other subjects to get to, but the notion that Trump keeps saying that one of the key sticking points is that we need to have a firm promise from the Iranians to not pursue a nuclear weapon. Like it's a verbal promise from the Iranians. Are you kidding me?
- [35:43]
Mark Polymeropoulos
I mean, they already have a fatwa, right? They already have a fatwa saying that.
- [35:48]
Mick Mulroy
They said the same thing before. Of course they cheated, but it doesn't matter. I mean, the idea that this is actually being thrown about and that if someone would celebrate the an mou, which includes that, and take it seriously, I mean, no one in the national security world is, is really kind of holding Their breath.
- [36:03]
Mark Polymeropoulos
They didn't agree to even talk nuclear, did they? Isn't that what the reporting is like?
- [36:10]
Mick Mulroy
No, that's, that's stage two. This is like, this is now going to get me going. This is. I watched that Sharm El Sheikh summit from several months ago on Gaza and I've been opposed to, to the Abraham Accord hoopla for so long because it didn't address the Palestinian issue. That whole summit, which was in essence a ceasefire agreement in Gaza and then there was going to be this 20 point plan was always going to be bullshit. And it is because it hasn't gone past, I think stage two. And so now we have a bunch of real estate guys, Kushner and Wyckoff again, now negotiating another 20 point plan with the Iranians of several stages. I mean it's incredible to me because this is just, and this goes, remember the Alaska summit with Ukraine? There was a multi point plan as well. This is what these folks, these real estate yahoos love. And it just ends up being, look, it's a, this, this will be a ceasefire agreement, if anything. That's it. My two cents.
- [37:08]
Mark Polymeropoulos
Yeah. And when it gets to the nuclear agreement, if we ever get there, it's going to have to include the recovery of the agu, of course, it's going to have to include dismantling of the nuclear program and inspection, you need inspections anytime anywhere. Inspections, man. Because you said it. Yeah, we changed the regime. We made it more hardline. So these guys, the guys that I think that are left and correct me if I'm wrong, actually anybody, I think they're more prone to want a nuclear weapon now. I bet you they're behind the scenes are like everything we got, we get to put in to get a nuclear weapon. Right. Because from their perspective, this has proved they need it. Because we're not doing this to North Korea.
- [37:48]
Mick Mulroy
Is that the lesson of Ukraine? Ukraine gave up their weapon, their nuclear weapon. I mean, is that not the lesson of Libya? I mean there's all the, all the, you know, the successes of counter proliferation of countries giving up their nuclear weapon have never ended up good for that country.
- [38:04]
Mark Polymeropoulos
So we have to have any time anywhere inspections because they're going to try to at least clandestinely get to a nuclear weapon.
- [38:10]
Host (possibly Bretzky)
Never gonna.
- [38:10]
Jonathan Hackett
It'd be crazy not to. I mean, like you said, Mick, even, especially the hardliners, they may have wanted a weapon before, but now their survival depends on it. There is no way they are going to survive if they give up their nuclear ambitions. Just not going to happen.
- [38:24]
Mick Mulroy
And Think about when we during the Biden administration, when we were doing a lot, but not ever enough to help the Ukrainians actually win. It was always because of the saber rattling on nuclear stuff from Putin. So having a nuclear weapon really does help ensure one's country's survival, one regime's survival. That's the lesson of the last, you
- [38:43]
Jonathan Hackett
know, several decades in India, Pakistan and North Korea are perfect examples of that. Truth.
- [38:49]
Mick Mulroy
Go Nukes.
- [38:50]
Host (possibly Bretzky)
There we go. And also an Iranian title. Yeah, something, something wild up. I'll come up with a door.
- [38:58]
Mick Mulroy
We gotta do gold bars next. Come on.
- [39:00]
Host (possibly Bretzky)
Yeah. Let's touch on a little bit of Israel taking more and more of Lebanese land. They moved past the Latani River. Jonathan, what are you tracking on this?
- [39:11]
Jonathan Hackett
It's hugely symbolic because if you look at the 1982 invasion, this is very similar as far as the incremental northward movement where in domestic Israeli media it's advertised that we're only going to hit this line and then next week they go another line and justify why they had to do that. Very similar messaging back with Ariel Sharon who was leading that back in 82. But the issue really here is there's always been a Lebanon Israel problem that's separate from the other issues that we've been discussing. And this is coming into the fore because I believe Netanyahu sees his time as limited, not because of the US elections, but because of Israeli elections. There's a possibility that the coalition will collapse by September. A real possibility that's being discussed within the nesset right now. And what's going to happen if that, if that happens, then they're going to lose control over this conflict. Which doesn't mean the conflict will stop. It means they will lose the ability to have the initiative in it, which could be threatening to Israel's northern border. So. So on the hawk side there's concern and then on the security side there's also concern about what will happen if the government collapses. And I think there's a mad dash right now to just end the issue before that. That red line approaches. But the symbolic movement up to view Fort Castles, it's a big deal because typically if you look on a map, this is very far north into Lebanon. This is far like just like 1982 and 2006. And 2006 is an important conflict to look at, to compare it to because that's when Hezbollah claims they defeated Israel. Really it was Israel decided to withdraw because the price was too high to remain engaged with Hezbollah. But this gave us United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701 and 1702 in 2006, which said the blue line is going to be the limit, the border between Israel and Lebanon. The Lebanese armed forces eventually have to move south and reassert sovereignty over south Lebanon, including Nabatiya, which is where they currently. Where Israel currently is now. And that hasn't happened. Hezbollah has not given up its weapons. This is the weakest Hezbollah has been since 2006. So I think Israel sees a possibility for actually forcing Hezbollah to disarm. The problem is, does, does Israel trust the Lebanese armed forces, the laf, to actually exert sovereignty in the south effectively? And I think that that is a questionable statement. It's. It's not clear if that's true. That means that Israel will have to be the de facto annexor of South Lebanon to ensure security for south Lebanon, which is something the Israelis don't want, the Lebanese don't want, the international community does not want. But it may be something that Israel is rapidly accelerating toward because of this red line they see with the potential domestic collapse of the coalition government.
- [41:38]
Mark Polymeropoulos
Isn't Buford Castle like a crusader castle?
- [41:41]
Jonathan Hackett
It is, yes.
- [41:43]
Mick Mulroy
I've heard a lot go back, and there's a great book written in 2005 and a great movie the Israelis produced in 2007. And this is about the futility of war. This is about the Israeli occupation, this is their Vietnam. And I talked to a friend of mine today, former Mossad officer, and there's a lot of Israelis in the national security establishment who are like, are you kidding me? This is insane. We're back up north of Litany at a very symbolic place. And again, if you see those movies, these are anti war films and books which have a lot of resonance inside Israel. And I think it's also the notion of the Israelis, and this is under the current Israeli government. And there's a lot of debate in Israeli national security circles, but they've lost kind of any ability to do diplomacy. And everything is via blunt force now. And this is after kind of the psychological trauma of October 7th. But this is something in which I think there's a lot of concern too, especially when you get to the Hezbollahs clearly learning from the Iranians and the Russians in terms of drone warfare. And if you look at social media, you see the use of these FPV drones, and the Israelis are having a hell of a time with it, and that just means more casualties. And so this is a. This is a pretty serious issue inside Israel. I think when people woke up and talked about Beaufort Castle, again, everyone was like, are you kidding me? I mean this, think about this in terms of us going back to some of these remote outposts in Afghanistan like now. And you know, there would be a lot of, from a lot of veterans, there'd be a lot of trauma, like, what, are you kidding me? We're going back there. So pretty interesting. The one piece in which I think what the Iranians are trying to do, the Israelis certainly don't want to have happen, is to link this with the Iran negotiations. And the idea of, and no Israeli national security planner from the right or the left would ever agree that they cannot have freedom of movement on their borders. And so the notion that Israelis somehow have to stop the war in Lebanon because of our negotiations with Iran, with Iran, there's a lot of opposition to this. There's opposition from the left and the right in Israel. Those in the left saying, you know, this is what you get. You cozy up to Trump so much now he's ordering us what to do, which is what, you know, could be, could be occurring. But this is, this is something worth watching because, man, back up into the old crusader castle. I mean, go back and watch that movie. It's incredible.
- [44:15]
Mark Polymeropoulos
What's the name of the movie?
- [44:16]
Mick Mulroy
Beaufort.
- [44:17]
Mark Polymeropoulos
Oh, it's named after the Castle 2007.
- [44:20]
Mick Mulroy
It came out, I saw it a couple years ago. I read the book as well. But it's a, it's a very serious anti war film about the kind of, the futility of, of a, a conflict, a never ending conflict.
- [44:32]
Mark Polymeropoulos
Yeah. Well, the only thing I'd add to this is, I mean it does look to many fairly that they launched this right at the opportune time to have some disruptive effects on the negotiations. Right. Because Iran's clearly tying their willingness to go into a ceasefire with a regional ceasefire, which means to them that the Israelis have to stop attacking Hezbollah. The question in addition to what Mark and Jonathan just said to the Israelis is like if Hezbollah isn't part of the ceasefire agreement, right? So if they continue to attack Israel, and we're not talking about whether they're
- [45:13]
Mick Mulroy
doing that, they are doing that, how
- [45:15]
Mark Polymeropoulos
are we going to tell any country they can't respond if they're getting attacked? So Iran's going to have to step up. The answer should be if you want regional peace, you have to tell Hezbollah, right? It can't just be a one way peace. That's not going to work, that's got a zero percent chance. So you're going to have to either stop supporting your proxy forces here or you're going to have to exert some control. And if you can't exert some control, don't ask us to try to control Israel because if they're getting attacked just like us, we're going to respond. So, I mean, hopefully we can decouple that from the negotiations, but I don't know that it's our choice.
- [45:52]
Mick Mulroy
Amazingly, Trump at one point said, he said, don't worry about this. Bibi does whatever I tell him to. And that might not have gone, that might have kind of flown past people here, but in Israel it didn't. Because again, that's the notion of if, you know, the Israeli national security system, one of the things they have always wanted is to have that independence from the United States, not, not give the United States a veto on anything. That was pretty amazing when, when Trump said that. And he said it because he believes it. I mean, this is, this is the, you know, the, the, you know, this is delusional. But that, but, but this is a Trumpian thing because, you know, he says,
- [46:25]
Host (possibly Bretzky)
yeah, you know why it flew by in America? Because most Americans think that Israel tells us what to do. Specifically in the Middle East.
- [46:31]
Mick Mulroy
Right.
- [46:32]
Jonathan Hackett
They're not even watching the conflict at all.
- [46:34]
Host (possibly Bretzky)
Or that, yeah, they don't give a shit one way or the other.
- [46:36]
Mick Mulroy
Right.
- [46:38]
Host (possibly Bretzky)
Just reminded 3400 people have died in Lebanon and over 10,000 are injured. 26 IDF soldiers and 2 civilians in northern Israel have been killed from rocket fire. So it's ongoing, obviously.
- [46:54]
Mick Mulroy
And by the way, D, one key thing on this too, and just think about the psyche of the American people with never ending wars, you know, the psyche of the Israelis. They're getting sick of this. You know, since October 7th, there's been a perpetual state of war on about six or seven different fronts. And so, and Jonathan said something. October is when I think we're coming up next October for potential elections. But the coalition does look like it's going to fall apart. And so the Israeli elections are incredibly important because I think that there is certainly a recognition that Netanyahu has over promised on all of these fronts and hasn't delivered.
- [47:34]
Host (possibly Bretzky)
Yeah, I mean, frankly, like some of the polling coming out of Israel doesn't really seem like they're fed up with this, to be honest. If we're being completely on, maybe there are other polls, you know, that take the temperature in terms of, like, let's keep cracking, you know, Gaza's still going on, there's still people getting smoked in Gaza. And I know Hamas is bad and all that shit. But IDF owns 70% of Gaza right now, and they keep pushing and pushing in Lebanon.
- [47:59]
Mick Mulroy
70 now. Netanyahu said he's going to go next, 10%. That'll be interesting to see.
- [48:03]
Host (possibly Bretzky)
I trust that. I trust what Netanyahu says.
- [48:07]
Jonathan Hackett
I remember on October 6, 2023, there were 300 to 500,000 people in the streets in Israel protesting against the government the way it was governing. And that sentiment is not gone. It's just quieter because of, as you mentioned, Mark, there is a war footing. There are people that still. Sirens going off have to come up and downstairs multiple times a day to go down to their bunkers. So they're not able to think about what they were thinking about before. But I think that's another reason that the war is going on, because the war cabinet understands that the moment that the tensions do go down, people will come back to the streets. And so they're kind of.
- [48:39]
Mick Mulroy
The polling now does have Netanyahu's coalition losing. It's very close. But he does not want to end any kind of armed conflict now because if there were elections, I think they, you know, he would.
- [48:48]
Host (possibly Bretzky)
The fact that it's still very close is insane to me.
- [48:51]
Mick Mulroy
Gonna be honest with the trauma after October 7th.
- [48:54]
Host (possibly Bretzky)
I know, I understand that. But, like, frankly. And I think all you guys can agree, the way they went about what. What they did in Gaza after October 7th was ridiculous. So, I mean, and they bombed Iran unilaterally. Like, let's not act like they're the ones getting attacked all the time. October 7th was a terrible tragedy, and they should have went after Hamas hard, but strategically and thoughtfully. And smoke. Done what they do well, which is fucking assassinate them and not do what they've done the last almost three years, bro. Because frankly, us. US opinion and world opinion, they are pariah state fact. Like, the numbers are there. So, like, I have a little bit of a hard time them acting like a victim when all they do is just. I hate Iran, too. I don't like the. I didn't like Khomeini, bro. Like, but they unilaterally bombed the shit out of him. And they don't like.
- [49:46]
Mick Mulroy
You know who likes Iran? Who said he'll go play a concert there? Here's your question. How much. How much you guys are up on social media, who just in social media just said, if I was asked to go play in Iran, I would go Vanilla Ice.
- [49:57]
Jonathan Hackett
I hope it wasn't really.
- [49:59]
Mick Mulroy
Oh, yeah, that's wild.
- [50:01]
Mark Polymeropoulos
I don't know why I know that I don't know why you'd say you would do that. Right.
- [50:07]
Host (possibly Bretzky)
Yesterday. The check is right.
- [50:09]
Mark Polymeropoulos
He'll play at the 250th anniversary USA or go to Tehran and play for them.
- [50:15]
Mick Mulroy
Amanda, I love it.
- [50:17]
Mark Polymeropoulos
He needs. He needs a PR person.
- [50:22]
Jonathan Hackett
He needs a job.
- [50:24]
Host (possibly Bretzky)
Yeah, he needs a gig. Right? All right, let's move on to Mick and Mark's old friend who got arrested for having.
- [50:31]
Mick Mulroy
Wait, wait, wait.
- [50:32]
Mark Polymeropoulos
We don't know him.
- [50:32]
Mick Mulroy
We don't know.
- [50:33]
Mark Polymeropoulos
I don't. You don't know him. Right.
- [50:35]
Host (possibly Bretzky)
So there was a CIA executive who got arrested recently for stealing or. They found $40 million worth of. Of gold bars in his home. And it seems extremely sketchy. If any of anyone's read the article, it's you guys. Give us a little bit of a rundown of what this is. Old friends of Mark.
- [50:52]
Mick Mulroy
So it's a. It's. I don't know him. It's a. It's someone from the Director of Science and Technology, the dsnt. That's the kind of the. The, you know, the techie side of the house at the senior intelligence service level. So that means he had, you know, he was promoted up through the ranks. He had super superstar rabbis in the seventh floor. You don't make SIS without that. And so that means he was in some fashion considered extremely high performing. What has kind of seeped out over the last couple days is he also was very close to the current Deputy Secretary of Defense, Steve Feinberg, former CEO of Cerberus, which is a huge kind of tech firm that provides a lot of stuff to the US Government. So again, talking about very senior level rabbis, the incredible part of this story is that he seems to have first embellished both his military career, but also his education. In fact, that he. I mean, things that in his security processing, his background check, and you go through multiple background checks when you get hired. And then even along the way, over several years, which include talking to all your friends and neighbors and lots of looking at your finances, but also the polygraph. How he got by all of this is rather extraordinary. It is not a good look for the Office of Security. It's not a good look for people who sat on his. His boards, his co workers, and again, the kind of the senior rabbis in this. And then he goes off and somehow has 40. $40 million. Right? I mean, just extravagant amounts of money.
- [52:21]
Host (possibly Bretzky)
303 gold bars with, you know.
- [52:23]
Mick Mulroy
You know, I remember when I got like a pen from like, you know, the Egyptians, the Jordanians. I'd have to spend 45 minutes writing a cable about it. And so, you know, we have such strict rules on gifts that you can do all your accounting. I mean, you have to account for everything. I don't want to speak for you, but I probably know the answer to this. I have provided allies, indigenous forces, foreign government services with sometimes millions of dollars of money that is accounted for very closely. And I can't really walk off with it. What this guy was working on seems to be probably some type of COVID program with an alternative payment mechanism. But. But if you saw the stories today from the New York Times and others, stuff is kind of dribbling out and it's going to look really nasty. And everything I'm hearing from my old friends is that it's so bad that they're going to cover this shit up because there's just so many huge errors along the way from the security side, the performance side, accounting side, and then all of his senior rabbis, including people on the seventh floor. And so everyone expects this to just try to. That to try to make it go away. But it's pretty amazing and doesn't really give you a lot of faith in the intelligence community. And this is a pretty state. I will say the last piece for you guys who like this, hey, man, if you got to go out, Hugh, you got to go out. You got to go out big. I'm talking like elephant dick big. Like it's got to be something so fucking outrageous. Because the first thing when I read this, everyone laughs like, holy shit. Right? I mean, that's your first reaction is God damn. Like, he didn't like fail to talk about a foreign contact or didn't do his accounting one day.
- [54:02]
Host (possibly Bretzky)
He went hard.
- [54:02]
Mick Mulroy
He went hard. You gotta go.
- [54:03]
Host (possibly Bretzky)
They also found $2 million in cash and 35 luxury watches, many of which were Rolexes.
- [54:09]
Mick Mulroy
Right.
- [54:09]
Host (possibly Bretzky)
So like, I mean, what do I know, sis? Guys get paid a lot, right? Like really? I mean, you're making whatever.
- [54:17]
Mick Mulroy
I think it's a couple hundred seventy, one hundred eighty grand.
- [54:20]
Host (possibly Bretzky)
Yeah, not that. And not, not that much.
- [54:22]
Mick Mulroy
Yeah. Anyhow, but you got you guys thoughts on this. I just. It's an amazing story, but I expect it to be. Be covered up because it's going to be stinky.
- [54:31]
Mark Polymeropoulos
It's really hard to believe it happened. It obviously did, but I mean, it's. And Mark knows and I think most people would guess it's really difficult to get screened to go in the CIA. Yeah, like it's really. It takes forever. My wife is a security investigator for the government including our organization. It's. They get into the weeds. So the idea he just made up a degree and made up that he was even in the Navy.
- [54:57]
Mick Mulroy
Go grab her, bring her on the pod. We got to talk to her.
- [54:59]
Mark Polymeropoulos
Yeah, right. No, she's, she's still acting, but I mean it's. Don't, don't they have to get the degree from the, from the actual university? You don't just show up and hand them to degree.
- [55:13]
Bluff
Right.
- [55:14]
Mark Polymeropoulos
I get a transcript.
- [55:15]
Jonathan Hackett
It's got to be certified.
- [55:16]
Mark Polymeropoulos
It comes in the mail.
- [55:17]
Host (possibly Bretzky)
Right?
- [55:17]
Mark Polymeropoulos
And then the Navy records come from the military because now it's like so easy to duplicate fake things. I mean, it's just insane. And then he, I mean, as most military guys know and gals, you talk about your service all the time. So if this guy was known to be a Navy fighter pilot, how did that go on for 20 years without somebody going, no, you weren't. I mean, because they know each other, right? Or they, somebody's going to start talking about flying a freaking jet and this guy's not going to have any idea what he's talking about. Like, it's just astounding for me that this happened. This is before we even get to the point where he has access to that many gold bars. Well, somehow not accounted for.
- [55:57]
Host (possibly Bretzky)
Funny you mentioned that. So the CIA says it informed the FBI of its suspicions about Rush, who apparently fell under scrutiny after he began asking for gold bars last November. That's when he began making several requests to obtain a significant quantity of foreign currency and tens of millions of dollars in gold bars for work related expenses. That's an expensive mini bar. No? What the fuck is he.
- [56:20]
Mick Mulroy
He got them though. So someone signed off again. Like the amount of paperwork you have to do to do these things is astounding. These are mass amounts of money.
- [56:29]
Mark Polymeropoulos
They scrutinize your accounting every month. Your average line case officers like this,
- [56:37]
Mick Mulroy
I passed seven figure amounts to organizations and entities, but I would never like go alone. You got to go. I mean, you know, you go with somebody. If we're driving down the road in XYZ country to pay off some warlord like you're not going by yourself.
- [56:53]
Mark Polymeropoulos
You don't like keep it in your house for six months waiting to give it. Yeah. I don't get it, man. Somebody's. This is going to be. I agree, Mark. This is going to be people. They're going to have to relook at the system. Because this guy, he played the system the entire career, probably, certainly, apparently lived
- [57:12]
Host (possibly Bretzky)
in Ashburn is There a CI Worry about all this or. No, this is just a guy who got sticky fingers and, like, figured out how to make a ton of money.
- [57:22]
Mick Mulroy
That was the first.
- [57:23]
Mark Polymeropoulos
All those Rolexes Rolexes come from again.
- [57:26]
Mick Mulroy
Think about alternative payment mechanisms. You have to, like. You're trying to give someone the benefit of the doubt, you know? Is this the way he was going to pay people off? I don't know. But yeah, the CI Thing was if that came to mind too. But, you know, but he's.
- [57:38]
Host (possibly Bretzky)
If he's a ds, sis, DST guy, is he doing that. That he's gonna go pay off sources
- [57:46]
Mick Mulroy
the S. T folks are. Are involved in. In covert operations? I mean, I'll give you a perfect example, and this is at the very low level. Remember Scooby vans? Remember Zero Dark Thirty? The guys running around in the van doing the geolocation of the courier? Those are S and T guys assigned to. Assigned a mix. Old folks.
- [58:02]
Host (possibly Bretzky)
But an SIS guy.
- [58:05]
Mick Mulroy
Yeah.
- [58:05]
Host (possibly Bretzky)
Like, would he be doing that?
- [58:07]
Mick Mulroy
No, I. Yeah, maybe he's dealing with senior people. I don't know. I mean, someone's gonna have to explain. The other thing is, where's congressional oversight on this? I would think if you're in Hipsy or Sissy, you're like, we need a briefing. What happened here, by the way? This is the American. This is the American people's money.
- [58:25]
Mark Polymeropoulos
Yeah. History. Fact is, there was a GB Guy in that van. I want to disclose his name, but I think you know him. But who actually was the one that followed him back to the. That's where.
- [58:38]
Host (possibly Bretzky)
Tell us that story.
- [58:40]
Mark Polymeropoulos
Well, you kind of see it depicted in the. In the movie. He wasn't a foreign person. He was, you know, America. And he. He passed away. So he's at Arlington. His story is just incredible. And I. I don't want to tell it because, you know, I don't have the authorization to disclose it, but it's an incredible story of. And he was a Marine. Did I say that already? No, but, yeah, I'll say it. Yeah, he was a Recon Marine. Great guy. Great guy. Great, great human. Total hero. But he tracked. He was the one that tracked the courier to the compound, that then turned the focus of the IC on that compound. For obvious reasons, he passed away during service.
- [59:25]
Mick Mulroy
But those. You know, the S and T is fully integrated into a lot of stuff like this. But again, so it's not that they're a bunch of, you know, tech geeks. I mean, they can be involved operationally in some really big programs. So I don't know. We're trying to find a way to explain this.
- [59:40]
Host (possibly Bretzky)
Yeah, no, I think he did a good job.
- [59:42]
Mick Mulroy
Ashburn. Ashburn is the place where you go out there, you see these, like, white rocks outside people's houses. That's how, you know, they do the swingers, because Ashburn's famous for that. It's like a swinger get out of here.
- [59:51]
Mark Polymeropoulos
Really?
- [59:52]
Mick Mulroy
Yeah. If you see a white rock, it means inviting you in your house. Leave your keys in a little pool. You know, they do weird shit. Google the Washington Post and Ashburn and Swingers. So there's stories on this.
- [60:04]
Host (possibly Bretzky)
Good Lord. So wasn't expecting that funny box. Don't do that. People are going to be ringing the doorbell. I'm here for the orgy. Yeah. Oh, man. All right, last bit of news. The new ndaa. Right? I got that correct. The National Defense, whatever the. Where we give all our money to. For the Defense Department. There is a section in there, Section 224, that wants to essentially integrate the US and Israeli militaries together. You, Jonathan, you explain it better, because I'm a dummy, but, you know, you can actually speak English.
- [60:46]
Jonathan Hackett
So first, it's not a law yet. That's, you know, the NDAA has to go through the House and the Senate and has to argue. Right. So there's a lot of debate that still is to come on it, but it is important that it's in there to debate. And what it's basically doing is integrating some of our defense industrial base and some of our research together, things like AI and other battlefield operating concepts together, so that they're more integrated in the future. And it'll probably change before it gets out, but it will probably be there in some form, but it is a modification of past practices where we either ad hoc or by other mechanisms provided integration with and through Israel to do things in the Middle East. So it's interesting to see it as a law or going to be a law, because if we look at, for example, defense use of COVID for intelligence operations, that is section 431 of title 10, which actually codifies how the Defense Department uses businesses as cover. It's a couple of sentences long, but it does a lot. Those sentences do a lot. And if there's money behind it, that can do a lot. And I think this section 244 will be very similar if it does come out this way, where it'll be a couple of sentences that have a lot of power behind them, if Congress appropriates monies to do those things. And I think Mark, you can talk more about what the effects of that would be.
- [62:09]
Mick Mulroy
Yeah, so I think that you know, the controversy over this and you see the Quincy Institute and, and others going crazy over it, Al Jazeera, you know, all of these favorite news outlets. What's the, what's the other one that you love? That crazy lefty freak show drop, whatever drop site.
- [62:25]
Host (possibly Bretzky)
I don't love it, bro. But I don't need to just hear from the Wash. Wall Street Journal and CBS News.
- [62:31]
Mick Mulroy
Easy to trigger you. It's so good.
- [62:33]
Host (possibly Bretzky)
Like you do need Barack Raviv to give you all your information so you can believe it.
- [62:38]
Mick Mulroy
All right, so going back to this, but the idea behind this I think is that there is certainly a train of thought based on US Domestic politics, but also coming from the Israelis too. And Netanyahu actually mentioned this the other day of weaning Israel off kind of U.S. assistance. We provide 3.8 billion a year, I think 3.3 directly. So there is a notion that that is going to change. And so this would kind of change the nature of this in which Israel and their kind of their value to the United States in terms of their high tech sector could assist. I mean, I think there are certainly significant counterintelligence concerns that have to be addressed and they will be because there has been an appropriate kind of like eyebrows raising, like what does this really mean? But when you take it, you know, Israeli advances on artificial intelligence and drones and others and air defense, I mean there certainly is a way to do this. I think that would be beneficial. But again, and it would then kind of negate that the billion dollar a year assistance program to Israel, which I think, you know, next year 2028, there's a 10 year MOU that that's how this runs. It's up I think in a year or two, I do not believe it will get passed again in those current numbers given the political sentiment both on the right and the left in the United States. And so, so this is probably from those who kind of are interested in the US Israel relationship, a way to continue that some type of productive manner. But those who question the kind of the counterintelligence piece on this I think are doing so correctly and it's got to be addressed. So I think that's kind of the most the best way to kind of look at this. The Israelis do have a lot to offer us, but we have to have our cover mechanisms but really our technology protected as well. What this is not is Israel or the US having any kind of Say over operational decisions on war and peace that has anything to do with it.
- [64:43]
Mark Polymeropoulos
It's important though too that have a relationship like this. I mean, did we have it with NATO? Do we have it with, I mean
- [64:50]
Mick Mulroy
some partners you have, don't you have, you know, you have. What is the single. There's something with Singapore, there's something with what Gulf country where they're, you know, they're, they're actually training and operating at US bases.
- [65:02]
Jonathan Hackett
But now chapter 16 of title 10 has dozens and dozens of countries named in it as partners for specific things under different sections. You've got 333 building partner capacity, which doesn't name countries. But those sections right after that do name dozens of countries by name on specific operations. And I think part of the concern too is that it says integration. And when you read that in an article on Al Jazeera, for example, people think that means that the IDF is going to become a service component of the DoD. I think that's how people are reading this. And that is absolutely not what. That's not what's written there, but legitimate concerns.
- [65:40]
Mick Mulroy
And so then that's why they'll be up for debate here. There is bipartisan support on this though for this from the two committee chair and armed services. That's worth noting, I think. Jonathan, you said that.
- [65:52]
Jonathan Hackett
And also title 10 is man trained equip, whereas title 50 is actually the conduct of war and war powers. So this is a Title 10 section for non operational use of the military. It's for providing services, providing forces, building forces, sustaining, maintaining and transiting forces, not actually using them in combat operations. So that's also another important separation here to distinguish.
- [66:18]
Host (possibly Bretzky)
Yeah. And the way it's currently drafted. Section 224 will appoint an executive agent to coordinate. And I'm nominating Jonathan Pollard to be the first ever executive agent to do this. I had to get that. I had to get that joke.
- [66:35]
Mick Mulroy
D got his. We got his point in.
- [66:37]
Host (possibly Bretzky)
Maybe they'll stop spying on us if we have more integra, you know, maybe. Sorry. Anything else, boys? This is a good episode.
- [66:44]
Mick Mulroy
Hey, your Knicks. Aren't you excited about the Knicks being in the finals?
- [66:46]
Host (possibly Bretzky)
Yeah, New York Knicks, big boys. Yeah, they're playing great and I'm happy the spurs one too. That means we might have a chance because he's very good.
- [66:53]
Mick Mulroy
Garden is going to be going crazy. That is when.
- [66:55]
Host (possibly Bretzky)
Yeah, the city's going to burn down if we win.
- [66:57]
Jonathan Hackett
Like.
- [66:57]
Mark Polymeropoulos
All right, here's your last wins game one.
- [66:59]
Mick Mulroy
This is important. Trump says he's going to go to a game. How is he going to be received at the Garden?
- [67:05]
Host (possibly Bretzky)
I don't think Super Great. Going to be honest, because it'll be
- [67:08]
Mick Mulroy
pulling the chair of msg.
- [67:10]
Host (possibly Bretzky)
Yeah. I can't see it. I can't see it being like super, you know, conquering hero coming back. No. Who knows?
- [67:18]
Jonathan Hackett
They'll probably be gonna play Trump. He's gonna play music at the 250th anniversary.
- [67:27]
Host (possibly Bretzky)
He's headlining it now because everybody else is like, run for the hills. I think the first game is Tuesday. I might be Tuesday. It's coming up this. Yeah.
- [67:35]
Mick Mulroy
Tuesday the 3rd. Oh, no. Is it the 2nd or the 3rd? Two zero Wednesday. One of the two.
- [67:40]
Host (possibly Bretzky)
Yeah.
- [67:41]
Mick Mulroy
They're opening on the roads. The Knicks don't play until I think the seventh back in MSG.
- [67:49]
Host (possibly Bretzky)
First time since 99. And I went to the. I went to a 19 in the finals game back then, too. One that they won with my dad. Yeah.
- [67:58]
Mick Mulroy
Pricey tickets on StubHub.
- [68:00]
Host (possibly Bretzky)
Yeah. I'm not going again this time there I saw some of the ticket price, like three grand to sit up in the nosebleeds. Get lost. It's ridiculous. It's ridiculous. Anyway, boys, everyone listening? Do us a favor. I want you to check out all the links for the guys down in the description. Of course, you have Jonathan's books, Mick Mulroy's podcast, the Pub on the Porch, applied stoicism. Mark. Mark. Just follow him on Twitter or something. That's where he gets. That's where he gets crazy. The craziest. All those links are in the description. And the best place to support the show is patreon.com the teamhouse. You get both episodes of Team Ass and Eyes On Episodes free. Not. Yeah, ad free and early. And you help support the show. Guys, thank you. A pleasure as always.
- [68:47]
Ryan Seacrest
Hey, it's Ryan Seacrest for Albertsons and safeway now through June 23rd. Shop for you. Save days and get great savings on all your favorite personal care Essentials and earn 4 times points. Shop in store or online and save on items like head and shoulder shampoo, Pantene shampoo, Tresemme conditioner, l' Oreal hair dye, Tresemme Hairspray, and Aussie Miracle curls. And earn four times points to use for future savings on groceries or gas. Offer ends June 23rd. Restrictions apply. Offers may vary. Visit albertsons or safeway.com for more details.
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Mick Mulroy
Oh, I have had no luck lately.
- [69:21]
Host (possibly Bretzky)
Wait.
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Lady Luck
Lady Luck Ritzky. I got you. I've had so much luck on spinquest.com they have all of my favorite games, slot games, live blackjack craps and bubble craps apps. You can even get a 30 coin pack for just 10 bucks.
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Mick Mulroy
10 bucks for 30. I'm headed over to spinquest.com right now.
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Milo's Pro Rewards Announcer
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- [70:18]
Mick Mulroy
Take care.
- [70:21]
Jonathan Hackett
Hey guys, I want to take a moment to tell you about the Team House Podcast newsletter. If you go and subscribe, it's totally free and what it will do is aggregate all of our data, all of our content that we put out, the things that are on the Team House on our Geopolitics podcast. Eyes on things that I write journalistically with Sean Naylor on the high side, anything else that we have going on, books we recommend upcoming guests, guests that we have coming on the show and also you know, filtering in some fun stuff in there as well if you'll go and check it out. We send it out just once a week. We don't want to spam you guys. It's just a kind of roll up of all of our content on a weekly basis. You can find our newsletter@teamhousepodcast.kit.com join again the website for that is teamhousepodcast.kit.com so we hope to see you there. The link will be down in the description.
- [71:23]
Ryan Seacrest
Hey it's Ryan Seacrest for Albertsons and safeway now through June 23rd. Shop for you. Save days and get great savings on all your favorite personal care Essentials and earn 4 times points. Shop in store or online and save on items like head and shoulder shampoo, Pantene Shampoo, Tresemme Conditioner, l' Oreal Hair Dye, Tresemme Hairspray and Aussie Miracle Curls and earn four times points to use for future savings on groceries or gas. Offer ends June 23rd. Restrictions apply. Offers may vary. Visit albertsons or safeway.com for more details.
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Bluff
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Ryan Seacrest
Hey, it's Ryan Seacrest for Albertsons and Safeway this summer. Stock up on your favorite brands for both you and your home. Now through June 23rd. Get big deals on everyday essentials from Proctor and Gamble. Shop in store or online for savings on items like Swiffer Power Mop, Febreze Plug Warmer, Herbal essence shampoo, Old Spice 2 in one, Crest Scope toothpaste, Secret Deodorant Spray and Head and Shoulder Shampoo. Get these deals before they're gone. Offer ends June 23rd. Restrictions apply. Offers may vary. Visit albertsons or safeway.com for more details.
- [73:29]
Lady Luck
Hey everybody, Lady Luck here and we're celebrating America's 250th birthday. Now all summer long I'm going to be celebrating by playing on spinquest.com which is an American owned social casino. It obviously features over a thousand slot games and live blackjack, live craps, live bubble craps. Head on over to spinquest.com get yourself a $30 coin pack for just 10 bucks.
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Milo's Pro Rewards Announcer
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Ryan Seacrest
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Bluff
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Milo's Pro Rewards Announcer
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Ryan Seacrest
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Mick Mulroy
What's up everybody? It's Bretzky and America is turning 250 and I can't think of a better
- [76:51]
Jonathan Hackett
way to celebrate that than playing on
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Mick Mulroy
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Host (possibly Bretzky)
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Ryan Seacrest
Hey, it's Ryan Seacrest for Albertsons and Safeway this summer, stock up on your favorite brands for both you and your home. Now through June 23rd. Get big deals on everyday essentials from Proctor and Gamble. Shop in store or online for savings on items like Swiffer Power Mop, Febreze Plug Warmer, Herbal Essence Shampoo, Old Spice, two in one, Crest Scope Toothpaste, Secret Deodorant Spray and Head and Shoulder Shampoo. Get these deals before they're gone. Offer ends June 23. Restrictions apply. Offers may vary. Visit albertsons or safeway.com for more details.
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Bluff
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Lady Luck
Hey everybody, lady luck here and we're celebrating America's 250th birthday. Now all summer long song I'm going to be celebrating by playing on spinquest.com which is an American owned social casino. It obviously features over a thousand slot games and live blackjack, live craps, live bubble craps. Head on over to spinquest.com get yourself a $30 coin pack for just 10 bucks.
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Mark Polymeropoulos
Foreign
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Ryan Seacrest
hey, it's Ryan Seacrest for Albertsons and Safeway now through June 23rd. Shop for you, Save days and get great savings on all your favorite personal care Essentials and earn 4 times points. Shop in store or online and save on items like head and shoulder shampoo, Pantene Shampoo, Tresemme Conditioner, l' Oreal hair dye, Tresemme Hairspray and Aussie Miracle Curls and earn four times points to use for future savings on groceries or gas. Offer ends June 23. Restrictions apply. Offers may vary. Visit albertsons or safeway.com for more details.
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Bluff
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Ryan Seacrest
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Bluff
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Bluff
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Milo's Pro Rewards Announcer
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Ryan Seacrest
Hey, it's Ryan Seacrest for Albertsons and Safeway this summer, Stock up on your favorite brands for both you and your home. Now through June 23rd. Get big deals on everyday essentials from Procter and Gamble. Shop in store or online for savings on items like Swiffer Power Mop, Febreze Plug Warmer, Herbal essence shampoo, Old Spice 2 in one, Crest Scope toothpaste, Secret Deodorant Spray and Head and Shoulder Shampoo. Get these deals before they're gone. Offer ends June 23rd. Restrictions apply. Offers may vary. Visit albertsons or safeway.com for more details.
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Bluff
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Spin Quest Announcer
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Milo's Pro Rewards Announcer
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Ryan Seacrest
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Lady Luck
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Spin Quest Announcer
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Ryan Seacrest
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