Deal with Iran in 24 hours? | EYES ON GEOPOLITICS

Summary

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The Team House: Eyes On Geopolitics

Episode: Deal with Iran in 24 Hours?

Date: June 15, 2026
Hosts/Panelists: Sean, Mick Mulroy, Jonathan Hackett
Theme: Analysis and breakdown of the imminent Iran deal, its regional implications, the mechanics of backchannel negotiations, the status of Iran's nuclear program, and broader questions about U.S. policy, national security, and technology.

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Overview

This episode of Eyes On Geopolitics dives deep into rapidly moving Iran deal negotiations, parsing reported deal points and leaks, the geo-strategic implications for the U.S., Iran, Israel, and regional players. With the negotiations supposedly just "24 hours" from conclusion, the hosts examine what’s really known, what’s propaganda, what the U.S. should demand, and how Lebanon, the Strait of Hormuz, nuclear safeguards, and international actors like the UAE, China, and the insurance industry all play pivotal roles. The discussion concludes with a timely segway into national security and AI advancements.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The State of Play: Iran, the U.S., and Leaked "Deal Points"

• Leaked Iranian Deal Points: Iran publicly released 14 negotiation points, which seem highly favorable for them but are likely maximalist public bargaining positions. U.S. hasn’t leaked any official terms.
  • Jonathan Hackett (03:34):
    "What Iran is doing is demonstrating what are its maximalist positions...they can walk back from privately and say, we've had heroic flexibility...It's about optics."
• Use of Information Environment: Both the U.S. and Iran have used public leaks in negotiations to shape domestic and global perceptions.
• Whiplash Coverage: U.S. officials and analysts have reported constant reversals — impending war, sudden de-escalations, then new impasses.
  • Mick Mulroy (06:24):
    "I think people are to the point where they're like, once an agreement signed, make it public and then we'll know."

Timestamp Highlights:

• Leaked deal points (03:34–05:49)
• Negotiation whiplash and public confusion (06:24–09:30)

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2. Core U.S. Interests: Nuclear Issues, Sanctions, and the Strait of Hormuz

• U.S. Leverage: Sanctions relief and frozen assets should be reserved for hard nuclear safeguards, not just to reopen the Strait.
  • Mick Mulroy (06:24):
    "Sanctions relief...shouldn't be done until [Iran] get[s] into a new nuclear agreement...Give it away before we get to the agreement, they're just going to outwait this administration."
• Nuclear Red Lines: The panel is adamant — any deal must deliver:
  • Zero enrichment
  • Dismantling of weaponization programs
  • Highly intrusive IAEA inspection regime
• Iran’s Incentives: Internal pressure for nuclear arms is higher than ever, especially within IRGC hardliner circles.

Quote:

• Mick Mulroy (08:22):
  "We all agree that Iran shouldn't have a nuclear weapon, but I think we can all accept that right now Iran's thinking we should have a nuclear weapon, right?"

Timestamp Highlights:

• Sanctions & leverage (06:24–09:30)
• Nuclear requirements (08:22–11:01)

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3. The Lebanon/Hezbollah Variable

• Crucial Complication: Comprehensive peace is impossible without addressing Iran’s military support to Hezbollah in Lebanon.
  • Jonathan Hackett (11:28):
    "If Lebanon is not included in the agreement, the agreement will not last... Hezbollah and the IRGC are on the same page."
• Hezbollah's Power: Holds nearly a third of Lebanon’s parliament, militarily stronger than the Lebanese army, receives ~$1B/year from Iran.
• Israeli Concerns: Israel is being asked to accept a peace deal that leaves Hezbollah intact and flush with cash, a massive concern.

Quote:

• Mick Mulroy (15:00):
  "Iran...needs to be a part of the regional peace...they have influence...they considerably funded them a billion dollars a year. They need to be a part of the regional peace."

Timestamp Highlights:

• Hezbollah's role (11:28–15:00)
• Regional implications (15:00–17:00)

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4. Closing the Strait: Economic and Insurance Warfare

• Physical vs. Perceptual Control: Iran doesn't need massive naval presence to cripple shipping; the specter of attack (and thus insurance premiums) has choked off trade.

  • Jonathan Hackett (20:15):
    "Iran doesn't even have to be there. It's the feeling that these companies have...vessel frequency is going to remain very low."

• Long-Term Economic Effects: Even "leakage" (some outgoing ships) won't resolve crisis if no ships can enter; global energy and supply chains face compounding disruption.

  • Mick Mulroy (21:27):
    "Eventually, their real reserves...are going to run dry...The longer it goes on, the more compounding it's going to be."

• China's Transition: China—historically Iran’s biggest oil customer—is pivoting rapidly to EVs and renewables, further eroding Iran's leverage long-term.

Timestamp Highlights:

• Strait of Hormuz control (20:15–24:32)
• Economic impacts (21:27–23:35)
• China’s energy independence (23:05–23:35)

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5. The UAE's Calculus and Regional Money Flows

• UAE’s Motivation: Emiratis are willing to pay up to $12 billion for Iran to open the Strait and not bomb them, motivated by economic self-interest and a desire to rebrand beyond petro-state status.
  • Jonathan Hackett (26:38):
    "This is a state acting in its own interest...they are seeing that this is a moment...If we don't [pay], when hostilities reduce, we're just going to become like Bahrain or Qatar."
• International Precedent: Concerns that paying for open access sets a bad global precedent, potentially incentivizing similar chokes elsewhere.

Timestamp Highlights:

• UAE role (26:20–29:26)

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6. Iran's Nuclear Stockpile: Mines, Tunnels, and Delivery

• New Developments: CNN reported Iran has mined and collapsed access tunnels to its near-weapon-grade uranium stockpiles, complicating potential U.S. or Israeli recovery/removal efforts.
  • Sean (29:26):
    "What does that signal to you guys, that they're trying to, like, bomb it in place and make it unattainable?"
  • Mick Mulroy (30:18):
    "They know it's not only part of our plan but a serious briefed part...the more they make it dangerous...the more likely we won't do it."
• The Technical Problem: Iran can restart enrichment even if the current stockpile is removed; the issue is their ongoing capacity, not just what exists now.

Timestamp Highlights:

• Nuclear stockpile, mines, and recovery (29:26–33:19)

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7. “Pathway Defeat” and Ongoing Threats

• Why Strike at All: Even if full weaponization is years away, the U.S. and Israel target the pathway — centrifuges, enrichment infrastructure, and delivery vehicle R&D.
  • Jonathan Hackett (34:11):
    "Pathway defeat...You hit every single vulnerability along the way...so that the whole system itself is degraded."
• Will is the Ultimate Variable: Iran’s technical steps can be undone; will and determination to pursue nuclear weapons has only been strengthened by confrontation.
  • Jonathan Hackett (36:39):
    "The nuclear threat is going to exist as long as the will exists and the will [is] stronger than ever."

Timestamp Highlights:

• Pathway defeat/ongoing threat (34:07–36:39)

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8. Retrospective: JCPOA, U.S. Strategy, and Missed Opportunities

• Comparison to 2015’s JCPOA: New deal must be substantially better than before or years of conflict were essentially wasted.
  • Jonathan Hackett (37:40):
    "The terms have to be better than the 2015 JCPOA. It can't just be better than February 28th. It has to be...all the way better because that would mean the whole thing was for nothing."
• Blame and Complexity: Pulling out of the JCPOA, not capitalizing on earlier negotiation windows, and a lack of bipartisan strategy has left the U.S. in a weakened negotiating position.
• Why Biden Didn’t Re-Enter the Deal: Focus on the Afghanistan withdrawal, not wanting to engage multiple big foreign policy issues simultaneously (& regional strategic overlap with Afghanistan next to Iran).

Timestamp Highlights:

• Legacy of JCPOA, Iran’s enrichment post-2017 (40:07–43:47)

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9. Policy, Institution, and Strategy Critique

• Strategic Drift: Despite world-class military and intelligence, U.S. policy repeatedly fails to achieve lasting strategic wins due to inconsistent policy, lack of continuity, and politicization.
  • Mick Mulroy (44:08):
    "We have the strongest military...and the best intelligence service, I'd say. And somehow we can't come out ahead in these conflicts that we decide to go into. I think we have a policy-making issue..."
  • Jonathan Hackett (45:34):
    "We should have a cohesive, comprehensive policy that lasts beyond whoever is in office. The only way to do that is to develop it together."
• Defense Spending Cynicism: The ballooning defense budget is called out as unsustainable without clear returns.
  • Sean (48:11):
    "An extra $500 billion for what nobody knows is a fucking joke."
• Power of U.S. Logistics and Alliances: Force projection relies on basing and allied access, which in turn requires diplomatic capital.
  • Mick Mulroy (49:40):
    "Professionals talk logistics. The US has the ability to project force so much better than any other military in the world."

Timestamp Highlights:

• Policy and military critique (44:08–51:17)

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10. AI & National Security: The New Arms Race

• US Sanctions on Anthropic’s Fable: The government suspends access to Anthropic’s cutting-edge AI models for foreign nationals due to national security concerns.
  • Jonathan Hackett (51:56):
    "In reaction to the news…Anthropic said, well, we’re just not going to let anybody use it. So now they just pulled the plug on it completely."
• Export Controls vs. Global Reality: The panel is skeptical export controls will stop adversaries, who are adept at reverse engineering.
• Arms Race Parallel: Tech advances always diffuse globally; best policy is to incentivize U.S. superiority and bring hackers/innovators into the fold.
  • Jonathan Hackett (55:43):
    "We have to use it to its maximum capability because we have to assume that [our adversaries] will do the same thing. If we don’t do that, we are...vulnerable."
  • Jonathan Hackett (58:53):
    "If Anthropic’s first, that’s great. But a Chinese company...will do it anyway. So we should be kind of helping Anthropic probably get even more advanced faster. It’s an arms race for sure."
• U.S. Mechanisms Lagging: Frustration that the U.S. government lacks channels with frontier AI companies to monitor advancements for national security risks.

Timestamp Highlights:

• AI export controls and implications (51:26–59:47)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Negotiation Transparency:
  • Mick Mulroy (06:24):
    "Once an agreement’s signed, make it public and then we’ll know."
• On Strategic Persuasion:
  • Jonathan Hackett (11:28):
    "If Lebanon is not included in the agreement, the agreement will not last."
• On Regional Incentives:
  • Jonathan Hackett (26:38):
    "They're seeing that this is a moment…If we don't, we’re just going to become like Bahrain or Qatar…"
• On Iran’s Will:
  • Jonathan Hackett (36:39):
    "The nuclear threat is going to exist as long as the will exists, and the will is stronger than ever."
• On U.S. Policy Drift:
  • Mick Mulroy (44:08):
    "We have a policy-making issue here because we certainly don’t have a practitioner issue."
• On AI’s Security Dilemma:
  • Jonathan Hackett (58:53):
    "If Anthropic’s first, that’s great. But a Chinese company...will do it anyway...we should be helping Anthropic probably get even more advanced faster."

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Final Thoughts and Predictions

• Will There Be a Deal? No consensus — panelists agree it’s extremely close, but even a “15%” unresolved is substantial.
  • Jonathan Hackett (37:14):
    "Eighty-five percent there...fifteen percent could be the biggest parts of the agreement."
• The Bare Minimum: A new deal must outdo JCPOA significantly — especially on nuclear restrictions and including Hezbollah — or years of conflict were wasted.
• Broader Outlook: U.S. must refocus on durable, bipartisan foreign policy and rapidly adapt to technology-driven threats (AI) or risk being left behind.

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Summary by The Team House Podcast Summarizer (Ad-free, content-focused. For feedback, support the show, and tune in for more deep dives on geopolitics and national security.)

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Transcript

[Sean]

What's up, y'?

[Mick Mulroy]

All? Summer's got a different tempo.

[Sean]

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[Mick Mulroy]

didn't plan to be. It's those in between moments. That's where the ideas hit.

[Sean]

Conversations stretch out.

[Mick Mulroy]

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[Sean]

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[Mick Mulroy]

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[Sean]

Try the new Tropical Butterfly refresher from Starbucks.

[Jonathan Hackett]

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[Ryan Seacrest]

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[Sean]

Hey everybody. Welcome to another episode of Eyes on Geopolitics. I'm here with Mick Mulroy and Jonathan Hackett. Lot happening as usual. The Knicks hopefully will win a championship tonight as we're recording this. Fingers crossed. USA beat Paraguay 4 to 1. And that's the end of the sports update for this program. Back to like what we normally talk about.

[Mick Mulroy]

Ufc.

[Sean]

Oh, yeah, ufc. It's on Sunday. Huh, that's weird. It's never usually Sunday. It's usually Saturdays.

[Jonathan Hackett]

Trump's birthday.

[Sean]

Oh, happy birthday. All the bad. Many more, Many more. So Iran, obviously we've seen it going back and forth again. Like we've seen the last like almost month. There was, I don't know if we spoke about the Apache getting shot down. And then we hit some spot like areas in south and southwest of Iran and stuff like that too. Israel hit Iran as well after, after Iran hit Israel or shot ballistic missiles at them. So there's been some back and forth stuff straight out. Hormuz is essentially closed, but there are some boats coming through. Not anywhere near where it used to be. Yesterday, I believe it was Iran leaked the deal points and the deal points look like maybe one of the worst deals you've ever seen in terms of like what the US Is interests are compared to what Iranian interests are like Iran's going to have like a freaking windfall of cash if this deal is done. President Trump true socialed right after that deal. Those deal points leaked that this is not true and then cut to maybe eight hours later. The Pakistani, I believe, foreign minister, but I could be wrong, said that like we're a day out from it being signed and it's going to happen. Initially it was going to happen in Switzerland, but now they said that's not going to happen, it's going to happen remotely, whatever, that there's a deal emanate in the next 24 hours. That's where we're at now. What the deal looks like. No one has any fucking clue. More than likely it looks, if I had to guess, it's looking like the stuff that Iran leaked out, those deal points. And I'll start with you, John. Like those deal points. Can you give us like a little lay of the land of what those deal points are?

[Jonathan Hackett]

Yeah. So these 14 deal points. And first of all, this is probably not the actual agreement. This is more likely a exercise in public negotiation where Iran is trying to include the public in this debate. Because there are people in the United States that want this conflict over for various reasons. And there are some who want it extended for various reasons. And what Iran is trying to do is use the information environment to influence the behind the scenes parts of the negotiations. And the US has done the same thing. If you remember back in, I believe it was March, when there was the initial talk about any kind of ceasefire, there were a lot of leaked lists of things. You know, there was a 10 point plan, there was a 14 point plan and this and that. And a lot of that activity is not necessarily to actually reach a negotiated settlement. Instead it's to let the public know what the contours or edges are of the negotiation. In other words, what are the goalpost limits of the negotiation? Like, what does the playing field actually look like here? And it's the same thing when the US and any other country comes to the table to negotiate. They come with maximal options. Because you don't want to come and bring your like 50% off option to the table. You want to bring your 100% option and negotiate down to 60%. You don't want to start handicapped. So what Iran is doing is demonstrating what are its maximalist positions, like what does it really, really want? And then you can think about this as something that they can walk back from privately and they can say, we've had heroic flexibility and we have decided to actually meet you at 60%. This is exactly what happened in 2015. It just wasn't public. During the Iran JCPOA negotiations with the nuclear deal, the P5 plus one, there were some extreme positions that started. And then, if you remember, Ayatollah Khamenei said, we have demonstrated heroic flexibility and accepted the nuclear agreement. So it's actually designed with the end in mind that, okay, when we actually do make an agreement, we can say that, you know, for these principles that we hold dear, we have decided to actually compromise when in fact those extreme points were never going to happen anyway. But it's about optics. How does it look to the consumer of that agreement, which is the Iranian people, the Iranian regime, the US the world. There are a lot of people that Iran is thinking about, the regime is thinking about, of how to, how to frame this properly for consumption globally, privately and publicly.

[Sean]

Yeah. So, like, what's wild to me, though, and Mick, I'd love to get your, your, you know, thoughts on this, but, like, what's weird to me is, like, that came out leaked, but we haven't really. Nothing's been leaked in terms of, like, what the actual deal is going to look like, at least as far as I could, I've seen. Which is weird to me because if a deal is so close to being signed and it's essentially 24 hours away, wouldn't, like, the deal points be already, like, as closely negotiated as possible? Like, you're right there. You're at the, like, less than one yard line.

[Mick Mulroy]

Yeah, yeah. So it was a lot of whiplash last week, right? So it was like, hey, we need you to jump on and talk about going back to war, to Car Island. Hey, I need to jump back on and talk about how the fact we're not going to go back to war and everything's going to be good and we're about on the verge of an agreement. Hey, we need you to go back on to talk about Iran saying that all that stuff's bullshit. We're not even close to it, you know, so like, and, and we don't know. We don't know what's actually going on and what's not. So, you know, I'm not necessarily complaining about it. It's just that I think people are to the point where they're like, once an agreement signed, make it public and then we'll know. Because if you listen to Iran, as you already said, D, that would be the worst agreement for the US the points they leaked, you would essentially give away all your leverage. We're going to give you sanctions relief, unfreeze assets just to open a straight which you don't possess in the first place. And then not only would we be paying and you could talk about the Reuters report that basically some of our Gulf states countries are going to release. So it won't be us but it will be them. But we will collectively be paying them to open the strait if that's the case. Bad idea. But I think especially the stuff that the US can control specifically like sanctions relief, sanctions imposed by the US like the frozen assets that we have direct control of or even influence over, shouldn't be done until they get into a new nuclear agreement. We actually need that carrot for the agreement. Give it away before we get to the agreement. Man, they're just going to outweigh this administration or they just might outweigh this administration the next because they already got the benefits, right? And let's face it, we all agree that Iran shouldn't have a nuclear weapon, but I think we can all accept that right now Iran's thinking we should have a nuclear weapon, right? So we've, we're in a situation where this is even more important than it was before the war because I'm sure that the IRGC extremists, you know, even amongst extremists are saying told you we should have already acquired a nuclear weapon and this wouldn't be an issue. So it's even more important that we get to there and we get an ironclad agreement that ensures they don't get a nuclear weapon, which means recovery of the heu, highly enriched uranium, which means zero enrichment and it means dismantling of the program that is validated by the IAEA anytime, anywhere, inspections. If we don't get to that, I think we got issues. If we do get to that, I think it will be viewed as at least this endeavor was somewhat successful. So for the folks that are either saying this is already a success or already a failure, I don't think we know yet that's to come. And that really is how this is going to end. It is going to end well for us and that's going to come with some sanctions relief and unfreezing assets. We got to accept that. But that's for the ironclad agreement not just to do something like open up the straight. You open up the straight, the blockade comes down. That seems fair, right? But after that, anything beneficial and at least from what the US is putting out there are talking about this is another issue. The US is saying that Iran has given up supporting terrorist organization. So as you all know, Iran doesn't consider Hezbollah a terrorist organization. So I don't know if that's just, you know, the way the media is putting it out there, but, like, there's no way that that can't be specific. Hezbollah, Hamas, obviously US Designated terrorist organization. That's not just a proxy, that's a terrorist organization. So if we're talking about that, it needs to be covered and we'll just have to see. Ultimately, I think it's too early to say this was, you know, entirely successful or entirely a failure. A lot's going to, depending on what happens in the next 24 hours. For some reason. That's the new timeline, and it looks like we're going to be done remotely. Okay. And I do believe it was Iraqi. So the foreign minister that said it would be public, like it would be posted, so you would know what was agreed to and what wasn't, and that both sides need that because we can obviously see that the propaganda wars have left us really puzzled about what is actually being discussed.

[Sean]

Well, the one thing the Delta, like where they've met actually, or whatever, like the Trump reposted the Foreign Ms. Minister's tweet about that, so that, that it's going to be public or there's a deal that's eminent or whatever. Yeah. So like we've kind of, I guess, met somewhere in the middle. John, let me ask you, do you think Lebanon is going to be included in this?

[Jonathan Hackett]

So that's a super important point that I think a lot of Westerners don't understand why Lebanon matters in this discussion. As you mentioned, Mick, Hezbollah doesn't view itself as a terrorist organization. Iran doesn't view Hezbollah as a terrorist organization. Some Lebanese people, about a third of the population, do not consider it a terrorist organization. In fact, their worldview is kind of what we would consider to be inverted based on our worldview. And if you look politically at Hezbollah, what is Hezbollah today? They're different than they were 35 years ago when they first kind of said that they were Hezbollah. Today they have 27 seats, I believe, in parliament, in Lebanese parliament as a political party and as a military force. Their military capability is more than Lebanese armed forces. This is a big problem for the current negotiations between the Israeli government and the Lebanese government, which is historic because Lebanon does not recognize Isra State. And they're in Washington, D.C. right now trying to negotiate bilaterally about this smaller issue, the Lebanon Israel issue, relative to the Iran issue. Well, 27 seats in parliament. Out of 120, 28 seats in parliament. That's, that's how many people, that's a third almost of the Lebanese government, like of their parliament is Hezbollah as a political party. This is something that cannot be ignored because if you look at from 2017 through last year, Iran sent, the IRGC sent $1 billion a year to Hezbollah, the military wing of Hezbollah. So that's, that's a lot of money for a militia in south Lebanon. Right? So if we don't, if we don't include that in our equation, it's kind of like when you're doing algebra and you leave out a variable, your answer keeps not coming to zero. It's like, why can't I solve this problem? It's because you're not including that other variable that has to be included in this larger equation to balance out all the factors. And so to your point, D, maybe it is, maybe it isn't. If it is not, it is a mistake. Or if it is not, it is not going to last. And even Hassan fadla, he's the son of an earlier Hezbollah member, a very prominent Hezbollah supporter from the 80s. Two days ago was making a speech in the Dahia neighborhood, which is south, south Beirut, that Israel had bombed, which is the thing that triggered Iran to hit Israel this past week. He was making a speech and he said that if, if Lebanon is not included in the agreement, the agreement will not last. Which is actually, if you read Iran's, you know, Iran's state sponsored media Merit News agency released two days ago, that was the first point in the 14 points that if Lebanon is not included, this deal will not happen, basically is what it, what it came to. So it seems that Hezbollah and the IRGC are on the same page. They're both probably in open channels of communication about what this deal should look like because it matters to Iran what happens in Lebanon. The reason is because of the nuclear, if Iran can't have a nuclear program, they're thinking, how do we protect our territorial integrity? Well, we have to have surrogate forces between Israel and us. The two most prominent surrogate forces are Kata Ib Hezbollah, which is part of Hashdasha's, the Popular Mobilization forces in Iraq and then in Lebanon because we've lost Syria. Iran says we've lost Syria to Assad, to a Sunni. So now all we have left is Hezbollah in Lebanon and we have to keep them alive like on life support, otherwise we lose our territorial integrity, our ability to actually have standoff defense of our borders against Israel. So this is how they're thinking about it. So if we aren't thinking about it like that too, if we're not creating an incentive for them to put this into the deal in a way that makes sense for us, this deal is going to be very weak. It's going to be very difficult to enforce.

[Mick Mulroy]

That is the biggest challenge of this because it really does appear to me, and maybe this is shifting, which would be great, but the US is like the one that actually wants us to come to the end the most. Right. So Iran's like, huh, this is really working this whole season, the straightforward. In this economic energy crisis, they're autocracy, right? So they don't really. Their people can take a lot of pain. People in democracies can do something about it. They realize that. Right? So, and then, and then Israel, I mean, this, this, this could be a worst case scenario for Prime Minister Netanyahu, right? So they get, what are they talking about for the UAE releasing like $12 billion. Yeah, yeah, I want to make sure I get that right. But Israel is looking at a billion dollars, is a billion dollars no matter who's releasing it, right? So now all of a sudden this regime who's super pissed off and we killed a lot of them, gets $12 billion. There's a peace agreement, there's a nuclear agreement that I'm sure Israel is not going to agree with. And now Israel is required to withdraw and leave Hezbollah armed and somewhat intact. So from their perspective, that's not a good scenario. And they made it clear that they're not actually included in the ceasefire. So this is a, I think this has got to be an issue that's shared the burden, if you will, by the United States and Iran. As Jonathan just so aptly explained, the relationship between Iran and Hezbollah, they have influence, right? You know, they considerably funded them a billion dollars a year. They need to be a part of the regional peace. Iran being, you know, putting direct pressure on Hezbollah both to stay north of the Latani river, to not attack Israel, at least at the basic level. And then of course, the United States would have a better time trying to influence our partner. But that's going to be the big challenge. It is going to be the thing that everybody's going to be looking at which could blow this up, even if it's agreed to.

[Sean]

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[Mick Mulroy]

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[Sean]

I know I'm going to be going on a bunch of road trips and being that I'm going to be passenger Princess.

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[Mick Mulroy]

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[Sean]

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[Mick Mulroy]

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[Jonathan Hackett]

and I'll mention too, about the Strait. I've seen a lot of commenters in different videos and podcasts kind of say that Iran doesn't really control the strait. There aren't Iranian vessels patrolling the strait. You know, it's a mistake to think that they actually do control it. And I struggle to wrap my head around a statement like that because you look at the effect, what is the net effect of the situation? And the net effect of the situation is that vessels are not moving at the same rate they were before the war started. And it's not just because the US Is bombing Iran. It's because there's a threat against those vessels economically that even if it was actually materially safe, like the boat could go through without blowing up. Insurance companies, which are all completely based on risk analyses, are looking at this and saying, I don't care if it's actually safe. We're not sending our vessels. Because unless you're willing to pay $2 million per vessel for insurance plus the whatever toll Iran wants to charge, you're not passing through with my ship. I'm not going to insure that vessel. And that's really what is the important point about the Straits. Iran doesn't even have to be there. It's the feeling that these companies have, these economic interests have looking at the strait, saying it's just not worth it. And until it becomes worth it, the vessel frequency is going to remain very low.

[Mick Mulroy]

Yep. And I'm told by somebody I'm fairly, not fairly, I'm very confident knows what he's talking about is that there, there can be some seepage. I don't know if that's the correct word, but it's only on the outflow. In other words, you could use the, you can use limited outflow through the southern part of the of the passage, but you can't get in. I don't know why that's the case. So we might eventually over Time, it'll be way reduced to Jonathan's point, which still means that the crisis exists. But even once you get them all out, like, I don't know, months and months and months, like you're not getting any in. So it's eventually, even that is just like a reserve that would eventually run dry. And eventually their real reserves of countries around the world are going to run dry. Like even if this is solved, apparently this issue is just going to be resolved economically for months. The longer it goes on, the more compounding it's going to be. And again, it's not just energy, it's also, you know, the nitrogen, the material used to make fertilizer, that it's key for food production. Yeah. You know the hydrogen or the night. Yeah. The helium. Helium, yeah. That's used to make the high tech chips. And all these things are just going to compound and get really consequential. The only person, the only country that seems to be there isn't a country actually that's not impacted. Obviously Iran's impacted by the blockade and everything else, but this is really something that I think the United States is going to press on. But it's got a lot of challenges ahead of it to make sure it works.

[Jonathan Hackett]

And even before the war started, China, the number one purchaser of oil from Iran has been transitioning to an electrical vehicle society. And just I believe it was in April they reached 33%. Vehicles on the road are electric, are completely electric.

[Mick Mulroy]

Massive solar. CNN did a whole piece on it. It's not just the solar fields, but they have mirrors that direct the, the sunlight into these towers. Have you seen these things?

[Jonathan Hackett]

Yeah, they're becoming energy independent.

[Mick Mulroy]

Yeah, energy independent. So that's going to, even there, there are leverage to leverage Iran. Right. So the further they get away from that battering because China doesn't like to get involved in, you know, other people's wars. So as soon as they can basically have less dependence is going to be not good for us when it comes to not good for Iran either. What are they going to do when they can't sell energy to China? Right, yeah, yeah.

[Sean]

It's interesting to me, John, I'd love for you to name some of those podcasts or videos who think like, you know, the straight of Hormuz because it's not physically or actually mind completely that they can't roll through no problem. Like it's not, there's so many, like the fact that they can't get insured or the insurance is just, you know, astronomical to the point that doesn't make sense. It's all. It's all about the dollar. Like, it's all about business. You know what I mean? Like, it doesn't matter if it's actually.

[Jonathan Hackett]

It's behavioral finance. I mean, you think about, like, al Qaeda. How did al Qaeda actually harm the United states with the 911 attack? Although the thousands of lives that were lost was an immediate loss to this country, it was what they did to impose costs on our transportation system following the attacks that was the real success for them. Tsa. All these difficulties we have going to the airport. If listeners remember who were alive before 9 11, you used to just show up at the airport and go sit in your seat, and you didn't have to go through any kind of security at all. You just sit there and wait for your airplane to come. That is a totally different world that will never go back the way it was. Billions and billions of dollars that they were able to impose and cost on not just the U.S. but, but the West, Europe, and, of course, worldwide now, because every country, if they want to fly to the west, they have to comply with some of these security requirements. So that's. That's the real cost. And it only took one. One thing and didn't have to do anything else ever again. And it's similar with Iran. It's the idea, it's the danger that. That imposes the cost. In fact, it's just like nuclear weapon negotiation. You don't want to use your nukes. You want to create fear of the nukes, but the moment you use it now, you have to actually work with it, which is not what you want to do. Instead of. You want to. You want to leverage the feeling that the thing brings to the table but not actually use it. And that's exactly what Iran is doing. And they understand that there is this effect on the economy without ever having to touch or put a single mine in the water. As long as the fear is there, that's deterrence.

[Mick Mulroy]

It is working. They do not want to go through that. They don't want to take the risk, and insurance companies don't want to insure that. So. And it won't be resolved by the trickle, right? It won't be resolved by the trick. Once a trickle actually comes out, there's nothing going in. So this is gonna. This is gonna go on for a long period of time unless the negotiators can do their magic.

[Sean]

Let me ask you guys, why is the UAE, like, so down to just pay up, you know, multiple billion? I think it's 12 or 14 billion, whatever the number is. It's just like, hey, don't bomb us anymore. And also like, let us bring our oil out of the straight. And like, we'll give you this 14 bill.

[Jonathan Hackett]

This is a state acting in its own interest because they left opec. That was number one. They joined the Abraham Accords. That's number two. They are seeing that this is a moment. Like let's say, let's past six years is a moment in their history, a turning point. And they're calculating that, okay, in the future countries will become energy less dependent. Let's say that means our primary source of income is going to decrease. If you look at what Dubai is doing is trying to become a tourist hub and a cultural hub and trying to relocate a lot of things from the UK for example, like the Louvre opening in Dubai. These are all indications that the UAE is trying to create itself as a place besides an energy place. And that's. I think what they're doing right now is they're seeing this moment is a turning point. Like, we have to do this. If we don't, when, when hostilities reduce, we're just going to become like Bahrain or Qatar that's only used for its oil or gas and we don't want to be that way.

[Mick Mulroy]

And if you are in Abu Dhabi, the loop is in Abu Dhabi.

[Jonathan Hackett]

Oh, sorry.

[Mick Mulroy]

It's super cool. Me and Eric used to go there every time we had to go there on the humanitarian stuff. But so on that point, I mean, I imagine don't know this to be true, but I imagine they got some form of green light. Right. They were probably using that literally as the carrot to get this going. I don't like it, but, you know, nobody's asking me. I don't like paying pan countries to set an example. Not, not specific to uae, but paying countries to do things that they don't legally have the authority to do in the first place. Right. So as soon as there's. There's like eight major maritime choke points, if you will, around the world and there is some country that's next to them.

[Sean]

Yeah.

[Mick Mulroy]

So if they can create the, at least the oppression that it's dangerous by shooting at some. You see what I mean? I mean, it doesn't. We need to, as an international community say we're not playing this game. We're not. You're not. You don't get to, you know, hold the world economy hostage because you got, you know, a bunch of small boats with, you know, missiles on them and you're willing to kill innocent civilians who happen to be, you know, commercial seamen. So I think, I think we have to draw a line there. But I do understand we're going to have to have some carrots to get Iran to back in the nuclear agreement. But I think that's the sanctions relief. I think most of their it should be performance based. You've performed this, I open the straight, you get this, we open the blockade. It can happen at the same time, it can be phased. But then for the financial relief at least most of it should come at the conclusion of the nuclear agreement. That's, maybe I'm a hawk, but that's, that's what everybody used to say. Let's see what they say when this agreement come out.

[Sean]

It's a different world man. You know, I mean on February 27th I was with you until we started bombing them and then now the goalpost has moved dramatically and not in our favor. Talk about a little bit about the heu. There's a CNN report yesterday. In recent weeks Iran has drastically escalated efforts to seal off its cachet of near bomb grade uranium, deliberately collapsing tunnels and booby trapping entrances with explosive mines according to five sources familiar with U. S Intelligence. What do you guys make of that? Because obviously if we do have a ceasefire in tomorrow, sign that's a 60 day extension or whatever. How many days extension to negotiate the nuclear issue. What it, what kind of, what does that signal to you guys that they're, they're trying to like bomb it in place and make it like, you know, unattainable.

[Jonathan Hackett]

Well, there's not a deal until there's

[Mick Mulroy]

a deal right on the chairman, the chairman who had to cut short his European trip and go to Tampa and be briefed on it. I don't know if that's accurate, but that's, you guys know it's so they know it's, they know it's not only part of our plan but a serious briefed part of our plan. And because of the comments around it, they know that the US doesn't want to do it. So the more they make it more dangerous to the force that would be carrying it out, the more likely we won't do it. So I think it's very unlikely. So the best way to get recover that is through a negotiated diplomatic approach where we can just go in, nobody's getting shot at and they can bring in the earth movers. I think like an isofon. They're going to have to build probably an expeditionary airfield of some sort.

[Sean]

Yeah. Because it's big earth, right? And you can only remove the highly enriched uranium with fixed wing, you can't do it with helicopters.

[Mick Mulroy]

So it's way better to do this because think about it, it could take weeks. So we're going to have me on the ground. You know, even if we send in, you know, all the forces, we have a raid out there, they're going to get hammered for weeks. You know, it's in, most of these facilities are in the middle of the country. Like, it's not the, it's not the ideal solution and we shouldn't, we should want that to be recovered for sure, but it should be recovered in a way that doesn't put this many troops at significant risk.

[Jonathan Hackett]

And also, I know I obviously haven't seen the intelligence, but using measurement and signature intelligence, you could look at what they're doing. Let's say that they're putting mines at certain HEU points. Well, that's just telling me where all the HEU is hidden. It seems kind of interesting. I wonder what actually is going on that we can't see on their side. Like, are they, are they using OPSEC to like create deception, like to put some other minds, some other places or are they leading some that are not mined?

[Mick Mulroy]

You know, they start putting it in all random places. We're like, oh, I didn't know they had it there. Yeah, yeah, right. It's tough. I mean, there, there's either, we can either get it all out of the country and destroy it. They could get it out and then degrade it back down to, you know, civilian usage. I mean, and the other thing about this whole scenario, you can bring in low enriched uranium to use for civilian purposes. If it was really about their wanting to have a civilian nuclear program, that can be done, but it's, they have almost 1,000 pounds of 60% enriched uranium, which is so far beyond what you need that it shows that they, that they isn't about a civilian nuclear. Like there's no reason to do it to that level. Which shows that their intent ultimately is to get a nuclear weapon. And from a purely pragmatic perspective, you know, if we, you know, if you were on their side, you'd be like, yeah, we need one, we don't want you to have one do everything. And I agree with doing, but it like they have all the incentive now to get one where they can actually have a deliverable nuclear weapon. The world changes.

[Jonathan Hackett]

Well, the difficulty they have too is that they could, they could make 90% weapons grade, but they haven't developed sufficiently a delivery vehicle yet. Yeah. So that's. That's the other challenge that they have not really gotten towards. So they've done really well on the enrichment side, and they. It's a short technical step from 60 to 90%, but the problem is weaponizing it. And I think that's probably what Israel has been targeting more than the enrichment program is the weaponization of it, because the enrichment is one thing, but you have to deliver it. And I think as long as they

[Mick Mulroy]

can't deliver it, the nuclear core, the exact mechanism. Yeah, yeah. Miniaturize it for delivery, that's like years away, Right, Right. Yeah.

[Jonathan Hackett]

And it's highly technical, and they don't have the organic ability to create the actual devices that would allow it to. To work.

[Sean]

If it's years away, why do we. Why do we attack them?

[Mick Mulroy]

We don't want pathway defeat closer. Right.

[Sean]

What'd you say, John?

[Jonathan Hackett]

Pathway defeat. This is a whole concept of countering weapons of mass destruction, is that you don't just strike the endpoint or the beginning point. You actually look at the entire pathway of how it's produced.

[Mick Mulroy]

And.

[Jonathan Hackett]

And you hit every single vulnerability along the way because it's a hedging attempt so that in case that your strike on that vulnerability X was not sufficient, you're also hitting vulnerability Y, vulnerability bravo, all the way along, so that the whole system itself is degraded.

[Sean]

But there's also, like, the reality on the ground. Right. And after the June 2025 strike, for the most part, every intelligence assessment, obviously I'm not privy to the classified, Said that they hadn't moved it. It's been there. It hasn't gone anywhere. Wasn't there something to say that? And we were working diplomatically to figure it out, maybe get it taken out of there. Isn't there something to be said about, like, we did the job last June. Why do we have to do it again?

[Jonathan Hackett]

Because there's a reason they can produce their own centrifuges now. So even if they leave the stuff in Isfahan, they actually have two other reactors that are under construction right now. One's a heavy water plant which makes a special kind of hydrogen used for weaponization. And the other is actually an enrichment facility. They also have 2 million kg of uranium in a mine that's in their territory. So let's say we remove all of the uranium. We remove all of the centrifuges, they can still produce more centrifuges and they can still enrich more uranium. So this is kind of the. It's like a runaway problem where you're just kind of like grabbing at them as they're running and they're still doing it, or they still could do it. And the thing is, you need to remove the will to do it rather than anything else, because as long as the will is gone, the threat's gone. Well, right now they have all the will in the world to keep doing it with whatever resources they can because they're being attacked by two countries with nuclear weapons. And they're like, we will do whatever it takes to make sure that our program does not go away. Like, we'll make. Even if we have to make you think that it's going away and we'll do it temporarily, we still have the ability to do it. And Natanz, they have a factory underground that can actually make the IR7 centrifuge, which is the most advanced centrifuge that is out there right now, besides the ones the us, Russia and China have. This is a really advanced centrifuge. They can make it. They have the ability to produce it, and they need some rare earth and other special minerals to do it. But China and Russia will give it to them or they can get it from other sources as well. So I think the nuclear threat is going to exist as long as the will exists

[Sean]

and the will stronger than ever.

[Jonathan Hackett]

Absolutely. Yes.

[Sean]

Yeah. Good God, guys, what do we do then?

[Mick Mulroy]

Find out in the next 24 hours? Right. Whether this.

[Sean]

What do you guys think? Does it happen? Is there a deal in the next 24 hours?

[Jonathan Hackett]

It is a weekend and he loves doing stuff with the market on the weekend.

[Mick Mulroy]

Yeah.

[Jonathan Hackett]

And we just got a SpaceX IPO, so that's good.

[Mick Mulroy]

Flying to DC tomorrow. I'll be flying in right when the UFC fight's going on.

[Sean]

Perfect. I mean, because there's no way to tell. I mean, I. I don't know what to make of, like, the Pakistani foreign minister coming out and saying there's a deal imminent.

[Mick Mulroy]

Like, does that change 85% there? I mean, I like to look at a glass half full, but, like 15% is actually really substantial.

[Sean]

Right.

[Mick Mulroy]

That could be like the biggest parts of the agreement. Like the 15% could include, I want all the benefits up front or, you know, telling us. And that's a non starter. I think if the US Gets what it says the terms are, we're in a better place. We'll have to see.

[Jonathan Hackett]

But the terms have to be better than the 2015 JCPOA. It can't just be better than February 28th. It has to be like, all the way better because that would mean the whole thing was for nothing.

[Mick Mulroy]

Yep.

[Sean]

Yeah, it is.

[Mick Mulroy]

You know, you can, you can spin whatever you want, but history is going to be very critical. The decision to get out of an agreement, to only get back into the same agreement, basically this many years later, after the 60% enriched uranium, with the proxy forces basically just increasing their activities, everything is. Yeah.

[Jonathan Hackett]

And Americans have died in between then because of it. 2019, 2020 this year. Like, Americans have died because we pulled out of that agreement

[Mick Mulroy]

for strategic reasons and obviously political reasons. It needs to be better. And really the only way to be better is zero enrichment because it's very limited in the jcpoa.

[Sean]

I think there's no way that happens. No way. I mean, got like have the straight of Hormuz open back to normal and a better deal than jcpoa. There's no way Iran goes for that.

[Jonathan Hackett]

Well, the one thing that would make it better is that Hezbollah is disarmed and the Lebanese armed forces take over control of South Lebanon. This, this would be a significant difference between the 2015 JCPOA and whatever we come up with now. Even if everything else was kept equal, this, this change would make it arguably a better deal. Although it would. You have to ask, like, was it worth that? Like, everything we've done in the last 11 years was, was that cost worth just adding Hezbollah to the agreement? And I don't know the answer to

[Mick Mulroy]

that question, but at least you can have an argument. At least you can make. Right, Right. We got to get to a better agreement than the jcu. And I think Jonathan's right. If we can get significant concessions from Hezbollah, that's a positive for regional peace for sure. I mean. Yeah. Good Lord. This is, this is. This country used to be, you know, so much better of a place.

[Jonathan Hackett]

The Paris of the Middle East.

[Mick Mulroy]

Yeah, the Paris of the Middle East.

[Jonathan Hackett]

Yeah. When my team was there, we were. We were able to go skiing in the morning and then go surfing in the afternoon every day if we wanted to, but we were busy.

[Mick Mulroy]

Yeah, yeah. Now

[Sean]

let me ask what happens quick. Quite like just a little history less. Because I'm not. I don't know this, but as a JCPOA was being negotiated, you know, in 2015, 2016, where were they at in terms of how much enriched uranium did they have? Was it anywhere near 60%?

[Mick Mulroy]

I mean, the agreement itself kept it

[Sean]

to 3.3 and a half or something.

[Mick Mulroy]

Yeah, like, nowhere close. Now, the other side was, you know, I'm not on either side, the other side will say, well, there's a lot of the enrichment when Biden came into office and you know, they didn't immediately get back into the jcpoa. I don't know if that's true, but all I know is the Pentagon, although we obviously, you know, once the President makes decisions to carry out orders, we question like, why not just make it a better agreement? Why not just build off of the agreement that's there? Yeah, it wasn't perfect, not by a long shot. But neither is zero agreement. That's not perfect. Right. And we could have addressed the issues of ballistic missiles and supporting terrorist organizations if it wasn't in the agreement. That that meant we could address it in other, by other means because it wasn't in the agreement. You see what I mean? So that's, that was our position at the time. But ultimately the President made the decision and that's why I think it really needs to be more substantial.

[Jonathan Hackett]

And also the reason the enrichment took so long, like it got back during the Biden administration, because the way that Iran abrogated its side of the deal was a slow incremental abrogation. So when the US pulled out in 2017, we unilaterally pulled out completely. Like we just abrogated everything in there and we kicked them out of the swift banking system. So there was kind of a two prong strike against them. But Iran still followed the deal because the other P5 plus 1 countries were following it. And so Iran had an incentive to continue because of the sanctions structures that were associated with the agreement. So they actually would telegraph and they would say, you know, in three months, if X doesn't happen, we're going to increase by this percentage. And they very incrementally did so until about 2019, 2020, when they were all the way back up to, or all the way to 60% enrichment. So they were telegraphing and giving opportunities for the west to say, okay, never mind, we're going to come back to this agreement. Which, I mean, the United States by that, of course, but the US ignored that. And Biden also ignored it. I mean, it wasn't that it was Trump versus Biden. Like it was. The US decided not to return to the deal.

[Sean]

Why, why wouldn't, why, why wouldn't the Biden administration try to get back into that deal?

[Jonathan Hackett]

I think, I mean, this is my opinion probably because the Trump administration had made an agreement with the Taliban about the withdrawal from Afghanistan before Trump's exit. But it was timed at the early months of the next President's presidency so that whichever president came next would have to deal with the exit from Afghanistan. And that was what was going on back then. And I think probably there was discussion within the Biden administration that we don't want to involve ourselves in an Iran negotiation while we're also trying to solve the Afghanistan withdrawal problem. And I think that's probably part of the calculus that went into why they didn't restart those talks at that time.

[Mick Mulroy]

Now it's. We got to look forward. We got to learn. We got to learn from that. Look forward to how we can put the US In a better position, which is, I mean, it's challenged right now. So it's to be determined.

[Sean]

But why would they think that the Afghanistan withdrawal would actually have any effect on the. On the negotiations? Try to get back on the JCPOA or add to it or whatever. Why is that even in the calculus?

[Jonathan Hackett]

Like, because it's the entire eastern border of Iran.

[Sean]

Okay.

[Jonathan Hackett]

It's a massive security concern for both Iran and Pakistan. So if the US Is negotiating with Qatar and Pakistan and Afghanistan about the Taliban, you know, you have to consider that issue.

[Mick Mulroy]

Okay, man, another episode. Talk about.

[Sean]

Yeah, we got to get to a

[Mick Mulroy]

point where we, we have the strongest military in the world by far, and the best intelligence service, I'd say. And somehow we can't come out ahead in these conflicts that we decide to go into. It's like, I think we have a policy making issue here because we certainly don't have a practitioner issue. And by practitioner, I mean people are carrying out policy. I think we have the most effective diplomats, military and intelligence services in the world. Yeah, we seem to have a real hard time coming out strategically ahead in these conflicts we decide to get into.

[Jonathan Hackett]

It's just improperly using these exquisite instruments that we have.

[Mick Mulroy]

Right.

[Sean]

And listen, you have like experts usually on the nsc, right? That'll tell you XYZ will happen, most likely. And the policymakers being like, that doesn't matter, like, we'll just do this anyway and not listen to experts.

[Jonathan Hackett]

Well, even wild with the Obama administration, Timber Sycamore, the COVID action in Syria, the NSC was the one pushing that covert action. They were saying, we need to go into Syria and arm these guys against Assad. And people in other agencies like the CIA and other places were saying, well, if you do that, you know, these guys are affiliated with Al Qaeda and this is kind of problematic. And down the road there might be some issues that happen which ended up being true. But it took a long time for that to actually Sort itself out in a way that we can actually see that that was true.

[Mick Mulroy]

Yeah. And I'm not saying like, obviously the people that are elected are elected and they make the ultimate decisions. It's not a. Listen to the careerist over it is we have an issue.

[Jonathan Hackett]

Right.

[Mick Mulroy]

Because we're not coming out ahead. So I'm all about the US coming out ahead, which I think is good for, you know, the free world, especially free world. But we need to figure out what we're doing wrong instead of just moving on to the next endeavor and not. It's very difficult to do because it becomes a partisan issue. But I think our foreign policy should not be a partisan issue. We should have a cohesive, comprehensive policy that lasts beyond whoever is in office. The only way to do that is to develop it together. The foreign relations committees, for example, should have a lot to say. Inconsistency. And our strategy should last beyond administrations because it should really focus on our core strategic interests, which ultimately don't shift just because it's a party, a different party. That's me being on the soapbox. But I think whether you're on the right, left or center, and whether you're a Republican, Democrat or Independent, you can say we probably should be doing better with those. With the tools that we have in our toolbox.

[Sean]

I think that's. No, there's no question there. Yeah, yeah. I mean, you know, even just dismantling USAID was a fucking terrible, terrible move.

[Mick Mulroy]

I mean, there was plenty of things that it shouldn't have been doing that it was doing. But again, then let's get it back on track to go to our core interests, our core strategic interests. The United States aren't partisan. They're not partisan. We want to improve our economy. We want to stabilize the world so we can free trade with it.

[Sean]

Right.

[Mick Mulroy]

I mean, there's basic stuff. We want to have more democracies because why we're a democracy and we promote it. It's in our core. It always has been, I guess, until recently. That needs to be. I know we're getting on a. I'm getting on soapbox here, but we are talking about something that we could easily go either way right now, come out behind. I'm definitely hoping we're coming out ahead, but we need to make sure that this, that we use the actual lessons learned, the expertise and the tools that we have in our toolbox, which are. Which every American pays for. Let's also put it that way. Right. I mean, our next defense budget is going to be $1.5 trillion.

[Sean]

Yeah. It's fucking atrocious. Mick. I'm going to be honest with you. I know this is like, you know, you guys are all in the service and stuff like that. 1.5. An extra $500 billion for what nobody knows is a fucking joke. Don't get crazy. Get me on a soapbox.

[Jonathan Hackett]

Now, the foreign policy idea is to,

[Mick Mulroy]

like, please, but, like, you should expect the best. Right? That's what I'm saying.

[Sean]

Sorry for sure.

[Mick Mulroy]

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

[Jonathan Hackett]

I mean, the foreign policy that we've been. We've been advertising, this, this administration, is that we're going to stop fighting wars overseas. We are dismantling a lot of our security assistance. We're dismantling the Army's Security Force Assistance Brigade. So, like, we're trying to pull back forces. And the question is, well, how is it that pulling back forces cost more than having them deployed? And if that's true, then why take them back? Just keep them where they are at the lower cost that they were rather than using more taxpayer dollars for less.

[Mick Mulroy]

And we're going to have to pay again to get it back out there when we realize that it's very difficult to project force without having forces already projected. You know what I mean? Like, it isn't. It's just. It's. It's just basic geography, right? So we want them. It's not. We're not doing people a favor by having bases in their country. They're doing us a favor. Think of all of our efforts in Africa and the Middle East. I mean, if we didn't have our platforms in Europe.

[Sean]

Yeah, no, we'd be. How. That'd be a logistical nightmare. And we're supposedly, like, we're the best at logistics when it comes to, like, being able to project power. Right. Like, we're number one.

[Mick Mulroy]

That's, I think, our secret. Our secret to our success is actually the logistics. Right? Amateurs talk tactics and professionals talk logistics. The US has the ability to project force so much better than any other military in the world. That's our key. I mean, we have, you know, I think, the best at a lot of different spheres of national security. But that ability to project force is really exceptional.

[Jonathan Hackett]

But you need the basing access and overflight to do it. And that means you need partners and allies who are willing to let you use their airspace, their airfields, their partnerships. And that can be accomplished with one soft team of 12 guys in that country training a tier one force in that country for a couple of years. That's enough goodwill for that country to say, yeah, you can use our airfield when you need to use it.

[Mick Mulroy]

Keep your friends. Keep your friends close, man you want to be.

[Sean]

We're not doing a good job of that, Mick, right now.

[Mick Mulroy]

No better friend, no worse enemy.

[Jonathan Hackett]

We need General Mattis.

[Mick Mulroy]

Right? Absolutely. That's. That's right. General Mattis, Secretary Mattis. That. That. That should be our motto. And it Both sides of that equation. Right. Because both sides count. You want people to be like, the US Is a damn good friend. They're there when it's. When it's tough. And you want your enemies to be, you know, scared. Scared to death of us. Right. Another great Mattis quote to the only thing they have to decide is when whole they're going to die in when we're there. Right. So, I mean, you want both. It can't just be one you need. I don't think you'll be most effective. You got to be the good friend and the enemy that people don't want to go against.

[Sean]

Are we doing that? Are we living up to that?

[Jonathan Hackett]

Currently, some places, but not as much as we have been in the past.

[Sean]

Little bit of. Let's talk a little AI news. John just tossed this into the signal chat. A statement from Anthropic statement on US blah, blah, blah. The US Government, citing national security authorities, has issued an export control directive to suspend all access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 by any foreign national, whether inside or outside the United States, including foreign national Anthropic employees. So it goes on. So it's. That's pretty wild. I mean, you know.

[Mick Mulroy]

Well, they're.

[Sean]

Particularly with the business side of.

[Jonathan Hackett]

Well, they actually turned off Fable completely. So in reaction to the news, just to be safe, Anthropic said, well, we're just not going to let anybody use it. So now they just pulled the plug on it completely.

[Sean]

Yeah, but what.

[Mick Mulroy]

So what does Fable do again? Sorry.

[Jonathan Hackett]

So Fable is their newest model that just came out last Tuesday, I believe, and it's a very advanced version of the different types of reasoning models they have. So Mythos came out before that. Mythos is even more advanced than Fable. Some governments, including France, have used Mythos to develop cyber tools and to identify zero day vulnerabilities and things like this because it's. It is very advanced. And so it seems the US Government is saying that. Exactly. Now it's. It's in the hands of an ordinary user or a Russian or whomever or North Korean. This would be a great ransomware builder, for example. So I think that that's the concern. But that means Anthropic now has a business problem, like you said, D where they've developed this really advanced thing, and it costs a lot of money to develop it, and it can do a lot of good. And maybe it's kind of to look at it like nuclear science, where you could do a lot of good with nuclear research and you can do a lot of bad with it. And how do you create the right balance between those two truths?

[Mick Mulroy]

How do we. How do we. When we don't control what our adversaries develop? It's tough like you get.

[Jonathan Hackett]

Plus, you have China making it, too.

[Mick Mulroy]

You can be real, like, preachy about it, but then when you go, well, the enemies are going to do it. I mean, Russia had a. During. Go back to the nuclear issue. Russia had a plan that if it felt like it got attacked and they couldn't and their nuclear forces couldn't be in contact with, the Kremlin just started launching all the nukes. It was a dead man's hand. It's just like this one missile went across the entirety of the Soviet Union, just launching all the ones that were still, you know, viable. So if you think about that's our adversary, you think they're not going to use AI to ultimate benefit them once they can? I'm not saying that that's an issue right now, but are we going to just tie our own hands? It's actually a really complicated discussion because, yeah, we don't want a computer deciding to kill all these humans. They're already doing it, by the way, in Ukraine.

[Jonathan Hackett]

AI targeting Israel used it in Iran also during the first days of the salvo.

[Mick Mulroy]

Yep, it's happening. It's happening.

[Sean]

Can we use it as well?

[Jonathan Hackett]

Well, this is a good point because Anthropic was the company that Pete Hegseth kicked out of contracts. And I'm curious if this. This statement is a punishment for Anthropic refusing to put guardrails or to take guardrails off for the dod.

[Sean]

Yeah.

[Jonathan Hackett]

Because they didn't ban anything else. They only banned Anthropic's most recent model.

[Sean]

Yeah. So based on the statement, our understanding is that the government believes that it has become aware of a method of bypassing or jailbreaking Fable 5, which you would think if they released Fable 5 on Tuesday. And Mythos, it's out there, Right? The Chinese and the Russians likely, or even like some independent group that works for either or both, has jailbroken this and figured it out. Especially the Chinese, like all their models are Based on American models. Yeah. You know, that's why they get them out so cheap. So to think that this is going to stop anything. And like it said in here, like, even foreign national, anthropic employees, like they have the smartest and best people are going to work at AI companies because there's big money to be made. Right. There's no. Like, how can they put the. Put the toothpaste back in a tube here, John, you know. You know everything. John, tell us.

[Jonathan Hackett]

You should ask Fable.

[Mick Mulroy]

Yeah, I wish I could. I wish I start asking AI how to control AI.

[Jonathan Hackett]

Well, the thing is, we have to look at it like any other tool or weapon, which a tool can be a weapon, and a weapon can be a tool. We have to think about what is everybody else doing with it and what is our goal. And if our goal is to remain superior to others, we have to use it to its maximum capability because we have to assume that they will do the same thing. And if we don't do that, we are opening ourselves up, like you said, Mick, to a vulnerability that they are going to be stronger than we are in this field. That would be a mistake. So maybe that is going on behind the scenes and we just don't know it, and maybe that's part of the ban on the average user using it. But we all know that suppression is not a good recipe for actual success. You know, like, if you try to suppress someone from doing something, they're going to find a way around it. Iran is an excellent example of that. That repression is not going to solve this problem. Instead, we should probably be opening it up to, like, some kind of competition among, you know, very advanced hackers and users to show us how they can best use Fable to do something egregious, like actually incentivizing that, like we did at Black Hat. You know, National Security Agency was a frequent attendee at Black Hat. I was one of those people that was there. There are many people from intelligence entities going to these. To see these really advanced, smart people. How can they use this? And how can we keep them insulated rather than isolated? In other words, if they're making these really scary tools, how do we bring them into the fold before they go out and use it for bad? Because, you know, if you give them the correct incentive, they're going to want to work with you. And I mean, a positive incentive, not a negative one. There was the whole, you know, bug bounty program back in the early 2000s, where we were paying hackers to give us zero days, and then sign NDAs and promise not to use them and let us use them in our toolkit. And that's, that's a reason we were able to do stuxnet against Iran's nuclear program was because of a zero day like that. There were a couple of zero days involved there and some other very advanced hacks where we actually brought hackers in to help us. And I think it's very important to bring in programmers and people that are very savvy on this stuff to help us and to be part of us. Because if we don't, Russia, China, North Korea, Iran and even some non state actors who are just financially interested are going to take advantage of this new technology. And the thing is, the technology is going to be there whether we like it or not. We have to accept that it's going to be there. And what it is today is not what it's going to be in 10 years, it's going to be dramatically more. And if we're left behind, we're going to be this, you know, like the Byzantine Empire, this like rump state that had this glorious past and everything else has passed us by. And that's kind of a choice we have to make right now.

[Sean]

It's shocking to me frankly that like the national security apparatus in the United States doesn't have some kind of mechanism in place with OpenAI, Anthropic and whoever else I say, I, I guess, but they're, you know, it's lagging. But at least Anthropic, which seems to be like the most bleeding edge frontier model, how they don't have some kind of mechanism to be like this model we just made is fucking crazy. And we're letting you know that for guidance and, and maybe we water it down for public use and stuff like that. Maybe we need to like, you know, you know, rejigger what we need to jigger, like, you know, dial it down or whatever we have to do. I'm shocked that there isn't a mechanism like that already in place.

[Jonathan Hackett]

Well, the thing is, it's inevitable that this would be developed. It's just like physics. Once people figure out the equations, anybody can do it with the right resources. And whether it's Anthropic that develops Fable or some other company that develops some other LLM, the tools are there to make it happen. And if Anthropic's first, that's great. But a Chinese company like Deep Seq, which is very good at industrial espionage, I mean, that's China's forte, figuring out reverse engineering and Making a new version that's, that's their proprietary version that we have a hard time to understand they're going to do it anyway. So we should be kind of helping anthropic probably get even more advanced faster. It's an arms race for sure. But the arms race also got us into space and created our GPS systems that we enjoy and many other positive benefits. There's a way to harness this to make positive benefits come to society if we're smart about it, if we're scared about it. That's actually the worst direction this could go because then our adversaries are ahead of us.

[Mick Mulroy]

Found the third offset. National security has been like that continuous desire to get step ahead. The question is, how far ahead are we going to get over our adversaries or are we dragging them with us because they can simply recreate what our companies are already doing? Yeah, yeah, it's across the sphere. I mean it's a bigger conversation. But if you think of the top five most significant tech leaders, they're not just running the world when it comes to national security. It's also social and influence. And these companies are becoming just colossal and something that I don't think we've really had in history, at least to this extent. It's just appropriating everything. Science, technology, development, culture.

[Sean]

And you look at the CEOs, you see these, look at the CEOs of these companies and you're like, holy. Do they, do they really deserve this much power? I don't know. I'll say no, they don't because they're lunatics. But for the most part they're lunatics, you know? Yeah, it's going to be an interesting thing. I mean, I, I'm shocked that there's no like direct line from like anthropic to the NSA to be like, hey guys, I think this thing's. I hope so.

[Mick Mulroy]

There should be, there should be established.

[Sean]

But at the same time you have anthropic and open AI raising money at an like a scary level, like a, like a spellbound, bounding level. And they're going to try and go public this year and raise more money. So they're like, we need to be at the top. You know, this is a battle for existence. Because I think in the back of their minds they know that at the end of the day it's probably gonna end up being like one massive AI company rather than like three or four. Just because the economics may not work. Because I don't know if it's. I'm one of the believers that AI is not gonna completely, like, you know, people won't have to work anymore and change the world completely. I think it is a place for it for sure, like in productivity. But I don't know if it's to the point where it doesn't even make economic sense. And like there's. That's another show we could totally get into and hopefully we will. I want to do something about AI and the business of it on this channel. Yeah. So we'll see. Nothing. No good news ever. That's great. Really excited about. I don't know how you guys worked in national security for 20, 30 years and it's just like you guys got good news occasionally, right? We got bin Laden. That was good.

[Jonathan Hackett]

That was in Pakistan.

[Sean]

Yeah. Well, we don't want to talk. We don't want to talk about that. Don't mention that. Yeah. All right. Anything else that's on your mind?

[Mick Mulroy]

Guys, I think we had a good episode.

[Sean]

I want everyone to do me a favor. I want everyone to go buy Jonathan Hackett's book Iran Shadow Weapons. I also want people to go and check out Mick's new podcast as Pub in the Porch, Applied Stoicism and the Whitefish Security Summit that's coming up next February. All those links are in the description down below and patreon.com/the teamhouse. That's the best place you can go to support the show. You get both Teamhouse and Eyes on episodes ad free and early and you help support the show. Guys, a pleasure as always. Let's go. Nick's.

[Mick Mulroy]

Yeah.

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If you go and subscribe, it's totally free and what it will do is aggregate all of our data, all of our content that we put out, the things that are on the team house on our Geopolitics podcast, Eyes on things that I write journalistically with Sean Naylor on the high side, anything else that we have going on books we recommend, upcoming guests that we have coming on the show and also, you know, filtering in some fun stuff in there as well if you'll go and check it out. We send it out just once a week. We don't want to spam you guys. It's just a kind of roll up of all of our content on a weekly basis. You can find our [e-mail] join again. The website for that is teamhousepodcast.kit.com join so we hope you to see you there.

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