
We break down the Iran MOU, the fight over the Strait of Hormuz, Lebanon’s role in the deal, and why the panel sees the agreement as a major strategic win for Tehran and a serious problem for Washington. We also dig into Iran’s nuclear program,...
Loading summary
Starbucks Narrator
What's up, y'?
Andy Milburn
All?
Starbucks Narrator
Summer's got a different tempo. Everything's a little looser, brighter. One plan turns into another. You hear something, you stay a little longer. Next thing you know, you're somewhere you didn't plan to be. It's those in between moments. That's where the ideas hit. Conversations stretch out. Little memories sneak up on you. Sometimes it's just about what's in your hand. That color, that chill. The new Tropical Butterfly refresher from Starbucks. Guava and passion fruit flavors with mango pineapple flavored pearl. Yeah, that feels like summer before you even taste it. Funny how one small stop becomes the best part of the day. Start your summer rhythm with Starbucks. Try the new Tropical Butterfly refresher from Starbucks.
Bretzky
What's up, everybody? It's Bretzky and America is turning 250. And I can't think of a better way to celebrate that than playing on an American owned Supply Social Casino. Spinquest.com with all of your favorite games, live crafts, bubble craps, live blackjack, there's no better place to play for free and win real cash prizes.
Spin Quest Announcer
Spinquest.com Spin Quest is a free to play social casino void where prohibited. Visit spinquest.com for more details.
Podcast Host (Teamhouse)
All right, hey everybody. Welcome to another episode of Eyes on Geopolitics. We got a full crew today. Andy Milburn, Mark Polymeropoulos, Jonathan Hackett, Mick Mulroy, the boys are all here. Too many Marines, but we'll figure that out at some point, I hope.
Andy Milburn
All right.
Podcast Host (Teamhouse)
We've had a dizzying week with the, the Memorandum of understanding. I'm gonna do a little bit of context for people just because like, if you're following on Twitter and stuff and like reading like article here and there, it's like it changes every 12 hours essentially of what's going on. We signed a deal basically over like, you know, remotely with Iran for the 60 day ceasefire where they were going to talk about the larger issue of the nuclear issue and the enriched uranium in that 14 point plan. These are just some of like the basic points. You guys can correct me and add a little bit more context. On top of that, there would have been straight a Hormuz opening to normal, the US blockade lifted. Some talk about opening up and giving some money to Iran, like their, their frozen assets. And then there was also Talk of a 300 billion dollar, I guess sovereign wealth fund or reconstruction fund that was supposedly going to be paid out by the majority of the GCC countries or the Gulf countries. At least 150 billion of that was supposedly secured for that. The other 150 billion. I don't know where it's coming from. Some say us. Some say, you know, US is denying that obviously. Over. And the big caveat, the big boy, the big issue that looks like what will could kill the ceasefire is Lebanon and what's going on with Israel and Hezbollah, who have been trading back and forth clearly out of Israel. I would say Netanyahu has been playing it kind of down the line, trying to, like, weasel his way. Like he's good at. Because he's a politician at the end of the day. But the ultra right homies like gvir have been freaking out about this, you know, saying that we're not going to stop the war no matter what. They're not. No. No deal is going to stop us unless we're involved. That's just like. Basically like the top little layer of it. It's been dizzying because I've been trying to keep track of this shit for the last week. And it's been. I was just. I was just fed up. I was like, you know, who knows what will happen? Vance was supposed to go to Switzerland. He delayed it. He eventually showed up today. They're meeting now, and Steve Wyckoff and Jared Kushner are there, of course. So everything will be great. I'm sure of it. Vance did bite back at specifically gevir. He kind of. He kind of kept Netanyahu out of it and gave Netanyahu a little bit of credit while going at GVIR and the. All the far right of the war cabinet. Pretty harsh words, too, you know. You know, there was a. I think a quote saying there's a country of 9 million people and you can't just kill your way out of your problems. And I'm gonna be honest, for the first time probably ever, I'm agreeing with J.D. vance. So you guys give us some context. Let us know, you know, what you guys are thinking, what you guys are tracking. I'm gonna start with. Let's start with Milburn today.
Mark Polymeropoulos
Well, I'm going to be fairly short because I know Mark wrote an excellent essay on what a tremendous success for the United States the MOU is. So I think we should, to sum that up, but why don't we just open with what just happened? So just three days after signing Iran shut the strait again over Lebanon. Right? Because that was part of Iran's stipulation that Lebanon become part of the deal. So even the US And Iran's own government can't agree if it was actually closed Centcom apparently saying traffic's flowing. But this brings up an interesting point and I mentioned Mark's article and of course I think it really. There's the fact that the US failed in our strategy. We really didn't have a strategy. We had a list of targets. It was kind of vague. There was no defined end state. Yes, that is a story in itself. But I think, and this is where John's expertise, I think will come in, I think it's fair to say Iran did have a strategy and it's one they've been preparing for years. A lot of people talk about the Mosaic Doctrine, which is kind of decentralized command, it's kind of mission command, which is our own doctrine. But it really worked. I mean, they anticipated that they would lose a lot of guys at the top of the pyramid and they designed a system that could still continue to function. So that worked. Number one, and again, I'll keep this brief. Number two, they built an economy that was some extent resistant to sanctions. I mean, John's already talked about the fact that, that the IRGC didn't suffer too terribly from the pounding that the Iranian economy took for all the reasons that we've given on this show, but also the fact that through deals with China and elsewhere, Iran has again designed its economy so that sanctions are no longer such a weapon as they used to be. The last thing I'll say on that, on, on their strategy, which I think is really important, it's what they went after. You know, all these firing of missiles and drones and they had, yeah, they had an extensive inventory but, but it wasn't random. You know, they went after key targets. They went after they, they'd identified what makes what, what when US employs air power, what really makes that work. And it is the what high density or high demand, low density items it depends on. And that is command and control nodes. Right. Especially AWACS aircraft, our tanker fleet, which actually is quite limited and it's aging. And it went after both of those on the ground, for instance in Saudi Arabia and psap, and caused extensive damage. And also ground based command and control as well as air defense. Our radars ability to sense all of these things were on Iran's target list. It wasn't simply, hey, we're going to just fire and show that we're not beaten. They were very careful about what they hit. They understood clearly the imbalance between the cost ineffectiveness between interceptors and drones and missiles, especially drones. And that isn't just about that cliche we always hear about a Patriot Intercept, it costs x million dollars and a Shahad missile costs 20 to 30 thousand dollars. It's not just about that, it's about depth on the bench. How many interceptors we actually have, how many we need globally in order to sustain our commitments. And they understood all that and they kind of bled us dry. And the last thing was, their targeting of Gulf countries was very carefully, deliberately done. And instead of, yes, it did piss off the Gulf countries, but it, but it also had the effect of driving a wedge between the US and our partners here because Iran could show that we could not protect them. We had not gone to the effort to build a coalition. And then when it really mattered, you saw UAE and Saudi Arabia saying, at key parts of this conflict, no, we're not going to support, and I believe, I think it was Kuwait, right, that said, no, we're not going to allow our bases to be used for further strikes on Iran. So again, this MOU is kind of, I think, a natural follow on. They sustained a beating, but all they had to do was survive. They did that. They sent a message of resilience. We've all seen these Lego videos that were masterfully made and now they've controlled the negotiations. Do I like that? No, of course I don't like that. I'm just commenting on how they've triumphed and they've really understood the cloud Switzerland thing about war being politics by another means.
Podcast Host (Teamhouse)
Who wants it? Hack it, you go, I'm taking charge here.
Jonathan Hackett
Yeah, I'll branch off of what Andy mentioned about the economy and sanctions and all this. You know, the regime has been framing their economy as a resistance economy since the 1990s. In Farsi, they actually call it this a resistance economy. And what that means is a resilient economy that can survive external impacts, whether those are sanctions or reductions in capacity or just actual logistical challenges of getting things in and out of the country due to geopolitics. They've designed their economy to survive this way and it's very clear that their structuring of that was successful. And that doesn't mean it was successful for the Iranian people. It means it was successful for the regime elites, the small minority of people in and outside of Iran who are able to maintain their safety, security and their grip on power throughout this really high intensity conflict against their country. You know, the US is very good at overwhelming fire superiority. This is something that we're very good at. We're very precise at that. We can put a lot of ordinance on targets very rapidly in a very large Geographic dispersion, which we saw was true, especially in western Iran during the war. Despite that, Iran was able to use, as Andy mentioned, very precise, careful, deliberate strikes on allies and partners in the region for non military purposes. And that's a contrast to what it seemed the US strategy was, was a purely operational or campaign level strategy of striking a certain series of targets or a target deck to affect a military outcome. Whereas the Iranian regime, the irgc, was thinking beyond the military objective. They were thinking about political outcomes and impacts of their military actions, which again is just like Andy mentioned, a Clausewitzian concept where military is a policy instrument, it is not an end. And it seemed that Iran was using that and understood that, that if they hit Qatar or they hit Kuwait, there will be political ramifications. That true, there is some sacrifice on their side that are negative impacts for Iran, but they will also negatively impact the United States. So they're kind of using that concept of the Samson option that Israel actually uses for its own nuclear policy where they understand that once they unleash this weapon, it will harm them, but it will also harm their enemy in a way that's beneficial to them unleashing this strike. And Golubov, the Speaker of Parliament who's now in Switzerland, sitting across the table from J.D. vance, negotiating a very uneven settlement right now in favor of Iran and against the favor of the United States. Yesterday, Golubov, before he got on an airplane, said that he is a post war economic commander, which again underscores this understanding of economics for Iran, for the elite in Iran, that it's about the money, it's not about protecting their people, it's not about political institutions. It's not about these esoteric philosophical concepts that we, we appreciate in the West. It's about surviving and enriching themselves and, and surviving to enjoy that enrichment. And a lot of their money, almost all of it is not in Iran, it's in Europe, it's in Hong Kong, it's around the world, it's in Canada. Billions of dollars. And they've designed these systems to protect those dollars and protect themselves. And if you see, for example, Golubov is, has hundreds of millions of dollars in Iran and outside of Iran, he posts on Instagram, other IRGC commanders, their children have yachts in the Mediterranean that on Instagram, these are not secrets. And there's even a website called I think like the Children of the Regime or something like this, where you can go see their daily lives documented them spending just untold amounts of money. None of this money from work they ever did. This is from either oil sales or other illicit activity. Right Now Iran has a special program where if you own a vehicle in Europe, you can import it into Iran and just pay a small tax on it. And now you can bring it into Iran, so you can buy it in Germany, for example, and then bring it to Iran. There's sanctions that are supposed to stop this from happening, but it's happening. It's just totally allowed.
Bluff
Right?
Jonathan Hackett
And even I think we've talked about it before, companies like Audi, for example, or BMW, they know about these sanctions. So what they do is they take the vehicle slightly apart and they'll put little pieces in between the doors and windows and things, and it arrives in a box, so it's not technically assembled in Europe. And they'll bring it to Iran, take the little pieces out, reattach everything, and now it's a vehicle that should not have been there in the first place. And it's not the average person doing this, it's the elites. And the reason I'm kind of pushing this elites button is because these are the people in Switzerland right now negotiating with the United states on a $300 billion cash infusion. Again, money is their objective. We are about to give them more of it. They use this money for very specific reasons, like we mentioned, corruption and things like this, but also to fund Hezbollah. After we exited the Joint Comprehensive Plan of action in 2018, the Hezbollah funding levels went up from about $250 million a year to a billion dollars a year until last December. We don't have 20, 26 numbers yet, but there's going to be more of it. And we can see that this connection to Hezbollah remains relevant because that's why the negotiations were threatened this past seven days in the first place, is because Israel and Hezbollah were fighting war in Lebanon. And Iran said, that's point number one on our 14 point plan. You got to stop fighting in Lebanon, Israel, or else we're not going to negotiate. So they're telling us that this is important to them financially for security reasons and many other things in between. And they're not going to give up on this point. So I think focusing on Lebanon and economics of this conflict are probably the two most important things. If the US Wants to do anything to salvage this disaster happening in Switzerland
Podcast Host (Teamhouse)
right now, your mattress is one of those things you don't think about until it's too late, until you're waking up with aches and pains and realizing you've been sleeping on a problem for years. Today's sponsor, Ghostbed is here to change that. And with the summer coming, there's one more thing worth thinking about. Sleeping hot. If you ever woken up in the middle of the night overheated and uncomfortable, you know how much it wrecks your sleep. Most mattresses trap heat. Ghostbed is built specifically to prevent that. It's built different, baby. I had a go. I've had a Ghostbed mattress now for probably like 10 months. I love it. It's freaking awesome. I have the cooling thing. Definitely keeps it cool compared to my old mattress. I love it. I'm so happy I have it and I'm so happy that they sponsor this show. Every mattress in the Ghostbed lineup comes with cooling technology built right in, not an upgrade you pay extra for. It's part of how every mattress is designed. From their entry level comfort all the way up to the Lux. I have the Lux, by the way, because I'm fancy. Which features their most in. The Lux features their most advanced cooling system. And if you're not sure which one is right for you, head to ghostbed.com team and take their mattress quiz. A few questions and you get a personalized mattress recommendation. Fast, free shipping and 101 nights to try it out. If it's not the right fit, you get your money back. Simple. Easy peasy, baby. Right now you can take advantage of Memorial Day pricing and Code Team gets you an extra 10% off when you upgrade your sleep at Ghostbed, the makers of the coolest beds in the world. Go get some. I love ghostbed. That's ghostbed.com team and use the code team T E A M for an extra 10% off site wide. Thank you guys for supporting the show and thanks Ghostbed for supporting the show. Love you. Bye.
Ryan Seacrest
Hey, it's Ryan Seacrest for Albertsons and Safeway.
Albertsons/Safeway Announcer
Summer is here and the sun is out.
Ryan Seacrest
Make sure you take care of your
Albertsons/Safeway Announcer
skin this summer through June 23rd. Shop for you, Save days and get great savings on all your favorite skincare Essentials and earn 4 times points. Shop in store or online and save on sunblock from Neutrogena Sun, Bum Hawaiian Tropic, Banana Boat and coppertone and earn 4 times points to use for future savings on groceries or gas. Offer ends June 23rd. Restrictions apply. Offers may vary.
Ryan Seacrest
Visit albertsons or safeway.com for more details.
Road Trip Speaker 1
Bro, from the show last night to this drive, why is it never chill?
Road Trip Speaker 2
Because this is our life backstage on the road. It's loud, messy, real, and that's the best part.
Road Trip Speaker 3
Whole crew no plan, just moving.
Road Trip Speaker 1
Good thing Nissan builds for that kind of chaos.
Road Trip Speaker 2
Not just test tracks, real life scenes, late nights, road trips, all of it.
Road Trip Speaker 3
That's why it holds up. Nissan was ranked number one in initial quality among mainstream brands by J.D. power.
Road Trip Speaker 1
Yeah, you can tell.
Road Trip Speaker 3
2026 Nissan Rogue. Built for what really happens for J.D.
Road Trip Speaker 2
power. 2025 US Initial Quality Study Award information visit jdpower.com awards awards based on 2025 model year. Newer models may be shown.
Bluff
Happy birthday, America. It's time to celebrate and play your favorite Las Vegas casino games by American owned spinquest.com what's better than fireworks and American pie? Hitting a blackjack in the palm of your hand and you won't lose your fingers. Over a thousand games, including slots and live dealers and 30 coin packs are on sale for 10 spinquest.com buy American players.
Spin Quest Announcer
For American players, Spin Quest is a free to play social casino. Boyd where prohibited. Visit spinquest.com for more details.
Mick Mulroy
So, Jonathan, you gave. I think you raised a really good point. I don't want to reiterate all the great things you guys said, but, but I think that. And it's an article I did write in Engelsberg Ideas which you guys were referring to. I think the title was the Art of a Bad Deal. I co wrote it with Sam Warby. But it's the idea of putting a carrot forward deal. And it's exactly what you're talking about. Jonathan, like. So I guess first of all, the wisdom of that is kind of beyond me. We're actually putting carrots forward. JD Vance in a press interview basically came out and said we're not doing that. And I think he's lying. I mean, of course the press never challenges him on anything because everything I talked to all the oil analysts, everything they said that Iran is going to get between the ability to sell oil, which is the waivers, as well as some relief of some type of assets, it could be 6 to 20 billion. Right off the bat, JD Vance is saying it's not gonna happen. But so, you know, first of all, where's the truth in that? It looks like it actually is gonna happen. But again, the idea of putting carrots forward first just doesn't make any sense and it shows how desperate the United States is. And I think that is certainly problematic. The other piece I would add, and you know, I'm there, you know, maybe Mick is too. Andy, who knows, kind of the resident Israel whisperer. But it's the notion of, look, I don't care if you like Bibi Netanyahu or not. But the idea of linking this to Lebanon, the US Allowing this is insane. You know, I live in Northern Virginia. Right across the way is D.C. if, you know, if I, you know, I live in Vienna. If I don't know if McLean was getting pounded and was evacuated because someone's firing from D.C. that would be a problem. And yet we have not managed to link this. So the Israelis do need to have kind of freedom of action. You know, you can debate whether or not they should have gone into southern Lebanon with ground forces. I think that's just unwise. But the idea of, you know, removing that ability there to strike back Hezbollah, the US Did Israel a terrible favor. And in fact, let's not forget Hezbollah as a terrorist entity that killed more Americans up until 911 than Al Qaeda. And so I think that was an awful mistake.
Albertsons/Safeway Announcer
Overall.
Mick Mulroy
It's the notion of, I think, Jonathan, you're right. Israel survived. Andy, I think you said this. I mean, it's not Israel. Iran survived. I think both. Jonathan, Andy said that they control. They demonstrate they have the control of the Strait of Hormuz. That's what we're. The MOU is just to reopen the Strait because Trump panicked about the economy, period. That's it. It's a. It's a cash. It's a transaction of funds for reopening the Strait. So they demonstrated that, again, linking the linkage to Lebanon was a terrible diplomatic error by the United States. And then this inclusion of some type of financial relief, which, as Jonathan says, is so paramount to the regime, the Iranian regime, finally, you know, it's something I stupidly have done every day on Twitter. I'm having fun doing it. I post how many days it's been each day since January 13th, and it's 159 days right now since President Trump said help was on its way. And, you know, and a lot of us were exercised about things like the botched Afghan withdrawal for good reason. We criticized the Biden administration. I certainly did, though. I work for a network, Ms. Now, which is super pro, kind of Democrat, and supports Biden. I was on there every day howling about it. I just was, period. This is going to be seen as a betrayal of the Iranian people. Again, help is on its way. As protesters were on the street, they stayed out there, they got slaughtered, and we are doing nothing to help them. And in fact, if you talk to anybody, the infusion of whatever it is, 6 billion, 12 billion, God forbid, the 300 billion, that allows the regime to further survive. You know, bottom line is I think we have done a great harm to the ability for people like all of us. We are. We don't do this anymore. Maybe some of you guys do clandestinely, I certainly don't. I sit on my ass in Northern Virginia. But the idea of going out into the field and working with indigenous groups and making promises, we don't look so good right now. And I think that's a. You know, and if you. I was just at a conference in Sweden. There was a whole bunch of really, really famous Iranian academics there, anti regime, but to a T. They said that in the beginning, Iranian people welcomed the US And Israeli strikes. They do not do so anymore now. And there is the incredible feeling of betrayal right now. Again, you're going to have the scene at some point. I hope not. Maybe it's politically suicidal for J.D. vance of him shaking the hands of Alibouf from the Iranian side. And Mick, I thought of you today and of course I freaked out. This is my not promise. Practicing stoicism. But when J.D. vance at the beginning of the talks said to the cameras, I love Pakistan. There's nobody on the planet who served in Afghanistan who says those words, I love Pakistan. And so I just saw that and I thought of all of us, Andy and Jonathan, you too. A little cringe. One more thing. Dee, I got something for you. Look at this little I love breeze thing.
Podcast Host (Teamhouse)
Hell yeah, love that.
Mick Mulroy
That's my. That's my two cent.
Andy Milburn
Well, I'm going to start with something I agree with all you guys on at least stuff I can remember. You said the. I'm going to start with a positive, right? And the positive had nothing to do with the mou. Major James Capers finally received the Medal of Honor, way overdue. Most, most Marines certainly, but people from the special operations military community have been waiting for this for a long time. He. He actually came and spoke to us at. I mean, it was such a memorable speech that like, I. It all came back when I was seeing him get the Medal of Honor. So let's start on a positive note
Spin Quest Announcer
now.
Andy Milburn
One thing I would start advocating for, I haven't stopped advocating for, is to get the NSC back up and running in full splendor. Like, get the careerists back in there. Get, get people that can talk about like, well, are we really going to change the regime if we do airstrikes? Are we really going to. Are they not going to close the trade? These are all things that would have been discussed, all the potential, like, okay, if we do this, they'll do that. What Are we going to do, are we willing to adhere to. And take the economic pain? Right. And what is the economic pain? There's experts in every one of these areas that could have informed up the chain of command all the way to the, you know, the actual principles. I think Secretary Rubio is a very capable person, but he can't be both. He can't be the Secretary of State and National Security Advisor.
Mick Mulroy
Where is he? He's hiding.
Andy Milburn
He's hiding because he probably doesn't agree with any of this. Let's face it. We all know that. Like everybody knows that. Everybody knows that, right? But I'm just talking about the process and process matters, right? Because I don't think we'd be in this position if that was something that was actually done before the decision. Get somebody like Jack Keane, you know, General Keane, or somebody that has the gravitas and has the. Anyway, so if we don't, if we had done that, I don't think we'd be in the situation we're in. So to go down the list of strategic objectives we had before launching this regime change. I know now they're saying they didn't plan on that. They did. They said it over and over again. Helps on the way. Mark, you just said it. They said we actually did have regime change before. It was clearly we didn't. And then the. So that was an objective. We're not going to meet it. The intelligence community said that wasn't going to happen. You're not going to do, you know, an air war where people just quit. It's never going to happen. Yes, we did strike and do the decapitation strikes and, you know, I'm somebody that if you kill servicemen and women of the United States or CIA officers, you should always be on the list. So there's zero level loss of the decapitation strikes, but strategically all it did is give us a younger, more pissed off version of the regime. Right. So we went from an 86 year old Ayatollah Khomeini to a 56 year old Ayatollah Khomeini. Right. And we now have Wahidi as the IRGC commander. And he is, I'm sure, and correct me if I'm wrong, Jonathan, one that has always been advocating for Iran to have a nuclear weapon. Like he's been the guy that's always been like, hey, you're wrong. No fault was on not having nuclear weapons. Let's get a nuclear weapon. Right? So strategically we did not change the regime. We now emboldened them and with these financial benefits, it's going to put them in place probably in perpetuity, if they actually realize the unfreezing of assets. I think there's around 100 billion total if you look at restricted and frozen assets. But immediately like 20 billion if you could sell your oil. Sanctions are gone. That's around 80 billion a year. This $300 billion reconstruction fund, which really baffles me because what are you reconstructing? We struck military targets. Are we going to ask the Gulf countries to pay to reconstruct the military targets that were used to attack them and cause them damage? I don't see them doing it. And the logic behind it is just. It escapes me. So we didn't change the regime. So what did we do that's positive? We did destroy their navy. We did destroy their conventional navy, the air force. But we then are giving them all this financial incentive. What do you think they're going to do with it? They're going to replace the ballistic missiles that we did degrade, that we talked about so much as a plus, which I talked about as a plus, the concern with the ballistic missiles. That is if we're going to protect their nuclear program. So we had to degrade it. Now we're getting them money. What do you think they're going to do? They're going to rebuild their ballistic missiles. And now the White House is defending their ability to have missiles.
Road Trip Speaker 1
Why?
Andy Milburn
Why? I mean, this. That was the biggest criticism or one of the bigger criticisms of the JCPOA didn't address ballistic missiles, didn't address proxies. So that's not even on our list of objectives. And it's still not being discussed in the MoU or in Switzerland right now. Proxies and ballistic missiles. We're not defending their ability to have ballistic missiles and their proxy forces. Obviously we're not even talking about them doing that. So that's not helpful at all now. So we haven't met necessary objectives. The other one, of course, the biggest one, the priority one, is no nuclear weapons. And although the White House was saying that they agreed to give up their highly enriched uranium, they did not. It's right in the agreement. You can look at the mou. It's not a secret. They did not. They did not. They haven't agreed to do anything on their nuclear front. In fact, Possesskian President Possession just came out and said they're never going to agree to not enrich uranium. He just came out and said that. So if that's the case, the almost the best we could do. And I don't like this. I'm just pointing out what I think is a fact is to get back in something that looks exactly like the jcpoa, right? We're given a billions of dollars, they're going to enrich uranium. What are we going to try to keep them to 3.67? Maybe that's what it was. And I know that it was going to expire, but we could have simply made it better rather than tear it up. So I think I've hit every major point. We should probably go on some of the nuances. But I would like to see the next 60 days turn this around, right? I want to see the United States come out strategically ahead. We are not headed there right now. We are not. Everybody knows it doesn't matter what party you're in. You know, right, left, center, people can see that this is not happening. The Strait of Hormuz, I'll stop on this. Strait of Hormuz is not actually open. The Iranians have not agreed to give up their control of the strait only to bring it to pre war levels and then in the future they're going to charge fees. We all know it's coming. In fact, they already closed it again, but so it's even. That wasn't a war objective because it was open before and we haven't gotten that back to where we want it. So what's the alternative? I had a friend tell me, you know, he picked the best of the all the terrible alternatives. I don't agree with that. I think we actually had him on the rope economically. I think we, and I, we, we. If we didn't want to take the economic pressure, we shouldn't have done this in the first place. We shouldn't have done it in the first place. Because the worst case is you do it, you then cave and this is going to change the power dynamics in the Middle east and around the world. They now know that they have an economic nuclear weapon and we have confirmed it. So I think we have to take the heat a bit on the economic side of this, but continue on. And if, if they rupture the agreement, we should view that as thank goodness and then we can go back and start negotiation this again. I know it's, there's no easy answer to this, I'm not saying that. But I want America to come out ahead. I want Iran, the regime, not the Iranian people to come out way in the rear. In other words, negatively. So we're not headed there right now. It's super concerning and I'd like to see the smart folks come together and come up with a plan for the US to turn this around, starting from a difficult position.
Mick Mulroy
Mick, one quick thing on that. There are no smart folks. The NSC doesn't work. Trump doesn't listen to anybody. So I agree with you. You know, this is a hope, but there's, there's nothing I see on the horizon that shows any indication of anything positive happening. Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff and J.D. vance are the ones who are in Switzerland. That's a recipe for disaster. You know, so, so the idea, there is no one, there's no one coming to the rescue, there's no smart people involved. And, you know, so I just, I don't see how that is ever going to occur. I don't know. You know, Marco Rubio is fleeing from this because of 2028. He wants to be president, and this is a disaster. He knows it. You know, and I go back to, you know, quarter of the State Department's gone. At least most of my friends in the agency are long past, are long gone. You know, I mean, I was asking even one of my former, you know, counterparts in Mossad, and he basically said, how can everyone have made so many mistakes on Iran? Like, we all collectively used to actually be pretty good on this. But there's nothing I see on the horizon that is optimistic that we're going to do anything positive here. In fact, Trump is bored, Rubio wants to go off to Cuba, and everyone's focusing in the midterms. I mean, I think, Mick, you might have said this, that this is the worst case scenario, that we start something and don't finish it. We've kind of poked the bear, but if you're going to, you know, if you want to poke the bear, you better kill it. And we didn't. And there's, I mean, if anybody thinks we're going to resume military confrontation in any serious manner, they're on crack. Trump wants nothing to do with it. I don't think Centcom or the Pentagon do as well because of, you know, depletion in stocks. And plus, there's a question of can it actually work? What more can we do without putting in ground forces?
Andy Milburn
So, you know, I mean, those are all good points.
Mick Mulroy
I mean, I'm really pessimistic on this. I don't know. And so, but here's my question to you. This is actually important because we all can sit here and criticize, and I'm great at that. But, okay, so what do we do and, you know, or what could we do? Or what, what do you, I mean, knowing that there is, we have incompetent people in charge. That's the thing that drives me nuts. I don't see anyone. You know, I like, I mean, I don't like watching Fox News. I like watching General Keane because he's up there and he laid into Sean Hannity the other day, as he should. Thank God someone in that crazy network is saying something normal. And so, you know, I don't see. I'm not, I don't have room for optimism. I don't know.
Andy Milburn
Well, I get your idea. What you're saying is it's unlikely that they're going to pull these people in. That's probably fair. But I think there are people out there that could, could be very valuable in an nse. I mean, they're careerists, right? The military didn't empty of experts. The Department of Energy didn't empty of experts. The CIA didn't, the State Department. Yes, I know a lot of. There's still people there. There's still people there.
Mick Mulroy
A lot of people left. I think there are a lot of people who are gone. I don't know.
Andy Milburn
And you could bring them back. I mean, they retired. You can still bring it back to the nsc. I know maybe I'm, you know, tilting windmills here, but I think like it's not going to be an easy task. But if it, if it doesn't happen, then we already know what the outcome is here. We're seeing it, we're seeing it. And I don't want that for the us I don't care about who's president, whose party benefits and stuff. I just want to see this not end up the way it's headed for the US and the region. All our allies in the region
Mark Polymeropoulos
actually make. Last point is a really key point. We've certainly lost credibility in the region. And to your point, Mark, I mean, and yours too, Mick, actually, I know it sounds like by hand wringing, but it's difficult not to wring your hands at this point because look, when you look at the details, let's take the whole framework deal, what it says about the enriched uranium, right, Potentially that gives the greatest cause for optimism in this whole sorry mess. But when you look closely at that, because the framework deal has Iran agreeing to downblend its enriched uranium, basically dilute it so it's no longer weapons grade under IAEA supervision. So on the surface that looks like real progress. But then you look at the actual language in the agreement, and that's kind of the minimum methodology. And the material itself never leaves Iran. It stays on Iranian soil. So while the real terms get negotiated over the next 60 days.
Andy Milburn
And they're not agreeing to stop enrichment. Right?
Mark Polymeropoulos
That's right. Yeah, exactly. You've got a commitment to a process, not a commitment to an outcome. And nobody's actually verified anything yet. You know, to your point about. I mean, it's like just a dreadful divorce settlement, right? We've made all these. All these things are flowing in Iran's favor before they even have to do anything. And the IAEA's. What's his name? Grossi. I mean, he was in Switzerland this past weekend still working out what this even looks like in practice. There's no inspection happening. The inspection's being negotiated, so it's hard to be optimistic. But I think. And the same thing about Hezbollah,
Spin Quest Announcer
you
Mark Polymeropoulos
know, and I think this is an interesting point, not because I'm about to bring it up, but I think we have to be. You know, you have to approach this from a point of view of real politic. Is Hezbollah. Okay, bear with me. Is Hezbollah a real threat to the United States? I get it. They've killed Americans in the past, but I'm not swayed by that. Nor should anyone, I don't think. Not in. Because, I mean, otherwise we would have never. We would never have made peace with Germany, for Christ's sake. 60, 70,000 Israelis moved out of the neighborhood. I get it. But that doesn't affect us. However, Hezbollah is absolutely disruptive to the region. So it is in our interests. It is in our interest to pursue them. But you're not going to bomb them into oblivion. I mean, they're so firmly entrenched in Lebanese society. I mean, you can. You can read anything about this by people who understand Hezbollah that you have to approach it from. By, you know, bringing. Bringing influence on Lebanon, supporting Lebanon to do what it needs to do in order to enforce the, you know, UN resolution. Was it 1701. All those things. Bombing. The. The bombing has done very little. You know, we are here, though, and this is the really pessimistic point. We are here because we just didn't anticipate, and I don't know how we didn't anticipate that Hormuz would turn out to be Iran's trump card. No pun intended. Right. And that wasn't improvised. You know, Iran built its entire war strategy around Hormuz back in 05 06. And I just don't understand why we didn't Understand that because the US Military flagged Hormuz. We all know this, right? It's open source. The US Military flagged Hormos as the single biggest risk of a war with Iran for decades. And it was in all the briefings the Joint Chiefs warned about it before the strikes even started. And the assumption going in was that Iran would either back down or the Navy could just reopen the strait by force. But, you know, who, who, who even gave that advice? I mean, and now you can't undo that through negotiations. Iran knows the power that it has. It's been proven. And that is what no amount of negotiation in this next 60 days can undo. And Iran knows that.
Podcast Host (Teamhouse)
You offended Mickey, ran away. No, I'm joking. I'm joking. He picked.
Mick Mulroy
I was going to pick on him, too, because I want to talk about happy math from the Pentagon because, you know, we had talked about on the show so many times before about the briefings from Hegseth and Dan Cain and I challenged everybody here that, you know, that my thought was, you know, the military has lied to us before, and I think they're lying to us again. And I know that's hard for folks. I did not serve. You all did. I think we have to question all those briefings, including from Dan Cain. I really do. And so, you know, I think history, Hegseth is a fool, but, but history might not be as kind because, you know, you know, all the, all the programs that seem to have been obliterated, other than the Iran, the Iranian Navy, which is the bottom of the sea, but not really because of all the fast attack ships and everything, all this other drone, whatever they have. I don't know. I'm not, I'm not so sure that we didn't go through a whole nother exercise of the military not being truthful. Or maybe the BDA was bad at the time, but they said it. And if you had believed that, then the war is essentially over. And it's not so to provoke. Andy and Jonathan. Jonathan, what do you, what do you think on that?
Jonathan Hackett
I think back to Vietnam when we had the whole body count problem, where we had these whiz kids who were extremely intelligent engineers that secrete McNamara surrounded himself with to try to get ahead of the Vietnam problem that, that they inherited in the 50s and so from France in particular, because France basically gave us their problem and told us to handle it. And that's what we did in Vietnam in the early years. And in order to get ahead of it, we thought of how can we, how can we rationalize what we're doing there. And they decided to start doing this body count thing. Well, what that did was it incentivized people on the ground to, first of all, claim kias. That did not happen. And second of all, to kill civilians to increase the number. And this, especially on the. On the Vietnamese partner force side, because that would increase the amount of resources they could get. The higher the body counts were, whether they were real, fabricated, or other people that were killed that were not the enemy. That was all designed so that these numbers could come in, because that's what the whole thing was focused on, was how many died, how much damage was done. Numbers, numbers. And that's exactly what you're talking about, Mark, where in the modern world, we don't actually have that exact incentivized problem, but we do have a very similar issue where the Department of Defense, because that's what it's called by law, not Department of War, the Department of Defense is trying to advertise successes that don't exist. And they're doing that with numbers because it's hard. It feels like it's harder to argue numbers because you see these things. Oh, I see the imagery, I see the bomb striking the target. That must have been a destruction, a destruction of an enemy target. Well, let's go on the ground and actually evaluate. Was that an enemy target? Was that a transporter or erector launcher? Was that a point of origin site? Was there a mortar there? We will never know because we on the. On the US Side are not actually going on the ground to do battle damage assessment. We had this problem in Iraq. Even if we were in the same area, if we couldn't actually get to the target to evaluate if it was struck or not, we couldn't be totally certain that that was the right target, the right time with the right impact that we're saying that it was. And you know, the same thing with drone warfare. If you don't have someone on the ground, a human source to validate or signals intelligence to validate that that was actually destroyed, you can't be totally certain that that was destroyed. And if we're on the order of 30,000, 50,000 strikes in a week or in a month, every one of those strikes needs to be validated. And the law of large numbers kind of indicates that if you're not validating small numbers of targets, you're also not validating large numbers of targets. So there's this kind of runaway problem where you don't really know. It's almost like Shooting in the dark. You know, you're shooting, you're definitely expending rounds, but you're not really sure, like, where are those rounds hitting and are they actually causing more problems than there were before you fired that round? So there's a lot of challenge here without us actually being on the ground to evaluate. And you could be on the ground a lot of capacities. Like I said, it could be recruited sources, human sources. It could be really exquisite signals intelligence that's used in a particular way. It could be other things besides ground troops, but ground troops really help, because that's us. And so you could trust us.
Mick Mulroy
Doesn't the Pentagon know better? I mean, I hear you, but again, so they're doing these briefings and they're going to Trump and showing him all this stuff, and he's getting mesmerized. So Trump was a doofus. Thanks. We're winning, but so we're getting the same problem.
Jonathan Hackett
Trump won. We had the same problem against isis because. And I remember this because I was in Syria and Iraq during this time in Jordan as well, where we would deliver up our strike battle damage assessments and things like that. They would get restructured and repackaged before, like, they would leave us, our teams, and on their way up to the President, they would change. And this was that time when Trump's name had to be inserted dozens of times into his president's daily brief in order for him to even pay attention. Not even to absorb, but to just pay attention. And I remember we got our National Intelligence Priorities Framework design and sent down to us for collection. It was not approved until Trump got to put his digital, you know, that. That really weird signature he has in like size 48 font on the actual matrix for our collection matrix. That was, that was. That had to happen or else it couldn't get approved. So this is the person that's listening to this stuff. He will only consume what he likes to consume. So what's happening is these hangers on, these palace hangers on around him are changing the material and changing the information in a way that he'll. He'll actually digest, which means they have to alter its actual subject matter and fundamental truth. That's. That's my belief, and I saw it during Trump. One where they would actually modify things that we said on their way to the President's daily brief so that he would actually keep his eyes open on the page. That's being dictated to him because he's not reading it. It's being dictated to him. And he has to hear his own name. So this is that Same person now, 10 years later, 8 years later, 80 years old, just turned 80, barely can stay awake. And so now think about how, how much of a challenge is to even hold his attention long enough. He doesn't care about what's happening in Iran. He cares about his image, his legacy, these things. And so the people around him are trying to feed him information that makes him believe that his legacy is positive. And you can see in what he's saying on, on social media, he believes the things he's saying. I don't, I don't think he disbelieves what he's saying. And I think the information, if he saw what was actually true, he might not have such a positive attitude toward what's going on with Iran and related issues.
Mick Mulroy
Yeah.
Mark Polymeropoulos
And John, you know, also, there's the fact, and I'm not defending the military here, Mark, look, there is an explanation that should have taken place whether or not Trump wanted to listen to it or not. And I don't know if that explanation occurred, but, you know, bda, as John pointed out, is really tough unless you have boots on the ground. And it's complex. I mean, there's three parts to it, right? I mean, you've got the physical damage assessment, and that alone is quite difficult if you're doing it just from the air. All right, because you're comparing free and post strike pictures, right, which is difficult, of assets that are dispersed and moving. You've got a functional damage assessment which asks the harder question, if something was hit, can it still do its job? So give an example. We're going after missile launchers. A missile launcher with a cratered support building can still do its job. It's completely operational, but it looks as though it's destroyed. And it's easy to explain as such. And then you've got the really harder part, which is a system assessment which zooms out further. And if individual nodes are destroyed, can the broader system still function, reconstitute? And so understanding all that, and the analysts understand that getting operational commanders to understand all that in itself is quite difficult, to be honest with you. I think John will agree. And then when you're packaging it for a president who has quite a short attention span, let's, you know, I'm under, I'm understating that, then it becomes near impossible. So even without intentional duplicity, the whole BDA thing was bound to go wrong. And when you're talking about a system assessment, you know, let's take the Navy as an example. Someone somewhere along the line should have told them the conventional Iranian navy was never a threat. The threat was always, always small boats, mines and drones and missiles, of course, in that order. Missiles can be fired from anywhere and hit the street anywhere in Iran. Iran's a big country. It's easy to disperse missiles. The Iranians use decoys, very easy to hide missile launchers there. I mean, all these, all these factors play in what is absolutely unjustifiable is the extreme confidence shown by guys in uniform when they briefed. I agree with you because they should understand what I have just explained because I'm not an intel analyst, I'm an operational guy, but I at least understand that. And so there was a sense of, of misleading the American public. I do agree on that from people who should have known better, or maybe they didn't. Maybe truly they have reached four star rank being quite ignorant about what BDA involves.
Mick Mulroy
Or you get to senior levels and you realize that you're there and if you say anything against the grain, you will not be there any longer. Wisdom. And I'm just throwing this out there and just for whatever, you guys know this, but this has nothing to do with the, you know, an F35 pilot or someone on a U.S. ship somewhere, a U.S. marine, like, you know, the people on the ground. This is not them. I'm talking about the leadership who have to brief the President of the United States on how the conduct of the war is going. And Dan Kaine, the chairman, has been given a pass because Pete Hegseth is such a complete and utter fool. Kaine has been given a pass, but Kaine also was involved in these briefings. And I don't think President Trump gets as rosy a picture without Dan Kaine providing that rosy picture. And I think, you know, it's fair to go back and say, because right now, I mean, some people, I think some people especially on the right in the United States are like, hold on a second, I thought we were winning. We were kicking their ass every day. All we saw in Fox News was death and destruction from above. And wait a second. Now the narrative, of course on the right has shifted, that we kind of screwed the pooch on this. But you know, there is something to be said. Oh, Mick came back. Mick. I was talking about something that we had talked about before and perhaps disagreed a little bit previously. Just has to do with kind of the military briefings that were provided over the last several months and we had all given kind of Dan Kane a pass. But I think we do have to go Back and. Because with the happy math and all the things, and then Andy and Jonathan talked about the difficulties in bda. But I do think we can go back and say, well, hold on a second. You know, the president has been briefed nonstop that we're winning the military. And these Pentagon briefings, even though Hegseth is kind of a fool, Dan Kane has been sitting there and saying kind of a lot soberly, but saying the same things. And it turns around, turns out now that, well, hold on a second. So I do think that's fair to at least kind of question that going back to things such as Andy said, you know, military briefings in Vietnam with body counts and, you know, there's, you know, I look back to times in Iraq and Afghanistan, military briefings turned out really not to be correct. I think it's fair to just raise that now as we're sitting in a place where it looks like we're not coming out. I don't think we're losing this war at all. But we certainly are. You know, we didn't win. Not yet.
Andy Milburn
I mean, this should be something that's reviewed by basically the Armed Services committees. They need to review, like, because the intelligence assessment is going to come out, right. And then they can look at what was briefed and what was the case. And they can, you know, sometimes they're just mistakes because they adjust their assessment, but it needs to happen because history needs to be correct. And we need to make sure that the president's getting the right information and obviously the American people, because at the end of the day, we pay for it. Right? I did. Right before I had to jump on a. Yep. To another media outlet. I did have a question for you guys because I heard somebody talking. She was on the House Intelligence Committee. Now, she was trumpeting the idea that Iran signed this thing and said they won't have a nuclear weapon as a big positive. I would say, look, they've agreed to not have a nuclear weapon. I don't know how many different times. And then she said, and you can look it up. She had seen intel, which is kind of an odd thing to say, that they have a clandestine nuclear program, which kind of countered her whole position. You know, it's like, so what does it matter if they're signing a document to the Great Satan that they're not going to have a nuclear. And then she's. And then, then it was like, wait a minute, what? Because, I mean, I don't have access to information anymore. But she said that yesterday as if she had Read it recently. So if they have a clandestine nuclear program, make it.
Podcast Host (Teamhouse)
Sorry, repeat that a little bit. You broke up a little.
Andy Milburn
So she was saying, as some, as a member of the, the Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, that she had seen intelligence that they have a current clandestine nuclear weapons program. I don't know if that's true. I haven't, you know, I don't have access and nor would I want it because I talk about this stuff too much. So if that's the case and we know it, what is it we're trying to negotiate? And what do we care if they're writing things that they clearly aren't intending to? Do you know what I mean? Like, do you think that's accurate? I guess is the question for the group. And then the other part is how far advanced are we? Because we're only talking about the parts of the nuclear program that we think we know. You see what I mean? Is there one that's utilizing these fortresses that are impenetrable right now? I don't know. Because that throws a big monkey wrench into the whole, I think, scenario going forward.
Jonathan Hackett
Well, when Khamenei sent the delegation, he said that there had to be a certain number of these supreme National Security Council members that would approve of the negotiations. There's 12 of them. It required nine yes votes. All 12, of course, voted yes because it's an authoritarian regime. But in that statement saying that all of them agreed, they said they're going to approach these talks with total distrust. That's a quote, total distrust. So as you mentioned, Mick, they're going to go sign this piece of paper with the Great Satan. With total distrust. I would lean more toward the clandestine nuclear program being true than them agreeing to give up nuclear weapons verbally or on a piece of paper in Switzerland. And I think that's very important to understand actions versus words. You know, there's a lot of words being thrown around right now because there's a financial incentive for them to look like they're doing what they say they're doing until they get their hands on that cash and they're going to put something that's going to get diverted. And that was the big dispute with the JCPOA was that if we give them a credit facility or some kind of special purpose vehicle with money for humanitarian supplies and things that that would divert cash for them to use somewhere else in a negative way for purchasing dual use weapon systems or actuators and rocket systems. Right. And again, 300 billion is a lot more than what was with the jcpoa. So even if that was used in a very strict humanitarian vehicle, and they claim there will be no weap and no nuclear equipment being produced. That's what they say. They approach this with total distrust. They said that I would take them at their word. They don't trust the West. They have never trusted America. There has been death to America, Death to Israel since 1979 and remains so. And that's actually what Ansar Allah or the Houthis in Yemen, that's their slogan is death to America, death to Israel. Even it's on their flag. And that's an Iranian proxy force. So I think we would be kind of diluting ourselves with idealism and hope, just wishing and hoping that the regime is being honest. They're telling us that they don't trust us. I feel like, how can you, how can you look at that and just ignore that and say, no, they're going to sign the document and they're going to follow it?
Podcast Host (Teamhouse)
I have a philosophical, ish question and I know the Iranian regime is shit and terrible, but can you blame them
Andy Milburn
for trying to kill this and.
Podcast Host (Teamhouse)
No, not being able to trust us going into these negotiations have, you know, looking at the history, looking at. Yeah, absolutely. But looking at the history, can you blame them? Especially if their one goal is regime security, which John's incredible book, Iran Shadow Weapons points out?
Andy Milburn
Yeah. I mean, I guess from their perspective, they don't trust us, we don't trust them. And the question is, like, wouldn't you be trying to get a nuclear weapon? I mean, I know it's all popular to say, but for pragmatic reasons, like, if it, like, what would you be doing if you were in their shoes right now? What would you be advocating for with the Supreme Leader? Seriously, I mean, look at North Korea. You guys aren't. Yeah.
Mick Mulroy
On this issue, I think there's a couple things. One is you have to see which member of HIPC said this, you know, you know, which. Which member of the committee. Some of them are complete idiots. And so who knows if she said this, she probably shouldn't have. And number two, there has been some reporting that suggested when the Israelis came to President Trump and kind of convinced him for the nuclear, for the strike on the nuclear facilities, that had to do with something new that they had uncovered. So there might be something murky out there and it's probably less, you know, conclusive that there is a clandestine nuclear weapons program. Could, by the way, just that in and of itself, if it was real, that leaks Sorry, it does. It ain't our collection, so that would leak in a second, but I think there's probably some nuance there on that. One thing I wanted to raise with you guys, which is interesting. So CNN reported essentially there's some side agreements on the MoU and then insinuated that there are leadership splits within Iran. I was going back and forth with some of the CNN commentators and they said, okay, that might be true because you really have the political types who are in Switzerland now. But, but the idea that somehow there's, there's leadership splits and that, you know, first of all, the political folks can come out on top, but that. Not that the IRGC is still controlling everything. I wonder if it even matters. But. And you see this theme with, especially with Vance and Trump who, you know, they say things I don't even, because they've been briefed. But, you know, there's reasonable people we're dealing with, or there are, you know, but. So I guess the question is, do you see any leadership splits? And if there are, does it even matter, considering the IRGC are the ones with the guns?
Andy Milburn
So the only thing I've heard on leadership splits is these, these folks that we obviously consider hardliners. The hardliners don't. And they basically told them, don't come back if you concede anything that we told you not to concede. Like, they're not act like Golubov and Arachi, you know, like they're, they're. I mean, correct me if I'm wrong, but most of what I've heard is they have been told, like, even if you want to concede something, if we told you not to, don't do it.
Mick Mulroy
So it doesn't matter.
Andy Milburn
Right?
Mick Mulroy
Yeah, but you know, there's always this search for moderates. I mean, Jonathan, you have a pretty good sense of history of US Iranian relations. I mean, from Bud McFarlane's key in a birthday cake or whatever the fuck we did then. I mean, we always have this incredible desire to find a moderate to speak to in Iran and it never works and we end up looking like naive idiots.
Jonathan Hackett
Yeah. And actually for the listeners, what Mark's referring to is the Iran Contra affair, where when we secretly went to go agree in Iran to delivering weapons for drugs and so on and all that scandal, there was a cake also delivered off the aircraft with a key in the cake, which is kind of a fascinating part of our history. I recommend people go read about, if they haven't read about that. But it's interesting,
Andy Milburn
why would we Put a game.
Jonathan Hackett
It was like a trust exchange and it was actually organized by an Israeli businessman and that's the one who recommended putting the cake or putting the key in the cake. It's a whole interesting.
Mick Mulroy
It's embarrassing though. I mean, it's really a humiliating story. But again, was the key bugged? No.
Jonathan Hackett
But if you're looking at today, right now in Iran, the question about is there a split? The answer is yes. And the way I can confirm that, so, you know, the regime pays a lot of people to go out in the streets and do these pro regime protests to make it look like there are people in Iran, like why supporting what's going on now, these have actually gotten a little bit out of hand because the people that are supporting the negotiations in Switzerland on the pro regime side are actually telling these protesters to please stop protesting. And they're not because they're being controlled by IRGC elements who are telling them to continue protesting. And you can actually see this played out on different Iran controlled media outlets. You know, there's the Islamic Republic of Iran broadcasting, which is the IRGC controlled media. Then there's a Ministry of Intelligence controlled broadcasting station also. And there are different narratives on both of these. Even though they're both pro regime, on the Ministry of Intelligence side and the Foreign Ministry supported media, they're saying that these protests are going down and people are leaving the streets. And on the IRGC side, they're actually amplifying and saying more people are coming out to the streets to protest the US Negotiations with Iran. There is certainly.
Mick Mulroy
I love this. It's interesting and we geek out on this stuff. The big question for you then, does it matter? Does it, Is there? I mean, so you know, we're seized on this. You see an intelligence report, there's splits. Okay, does it actually matter with the final Iranian position? How can the US Take advantage of this argument, and maybe I'm totally wrong, is it doesn't matter because the hard line is going to work out anyway.
Jonathan Hackett
It does matter because the way that we are defining moderate and hardliner is shifting. They are all hardliners in my opinion. If we say moderate, we're joking to ourselves. We're just talking in relative terms. But, but there's one person that's on the delegation in Switzerland that tells me that this matters and that's Golly Boff. He's I actually saw yesterday, I think it was on cnn, he was described as a moderate. And I had to reread that sentence because I was like, how are you calling this guy, a moderate. He is a deep seated, hardlining member of the old IRGC crew that should have been whacked on day one. And in fact, the US asked Israel not to kill him. Him and FAHITI both because we wanted to negotiate with them, because we didn't really understand who these people were. And now we see who they are. And he's there in Switzerland. So if he is there in Switzerland, then whatever he decides is going to be the law of the land, which is a very important point. It's not that they sent Aragchi this time or Possesskian. There's a reason Pazhashkian is not on the delegation, because Pezeshkian has zero control over what happens. He can say a lot and he does say a lot on social media, but it's the IRGC who's in charge. And Golubov has held almost every important position in the IRGC that exists. And now he is the Parliament speaker. So he controls the Majules also, which is their, their, like their Senate. He controls that now. And he's the one that's leading the delegation. It's him, Aragchi, the Foreign Minister. It's representatives from the Supreme National Security Council. It's the Central Bank Director of Iran, who is a sanctioned individual but has a black diplomatic passport and travels to the United States, to D.C. and oil representatives. So it's the Ministry of Oil. This is the delegation to your point, Mick. Yeah, exactly. This is about the Straits of Hormuz and the movement of oil. This is not about resolution of conflict. It's about a specific economic outcome. As you mentioned, Mark, that Trump got flustered with what's going on economically and is trying to find a way out. That's why those people are at that meeting, so that there can be a way out for the US Government to somehow get out of this with something.
Mick Mulroy
It seems like we're getting our asses handed. I mean, the Iranians are really good negotiators. I mean, but just, I mean, this is. I mean, I hate to say this, Mick, I'm like, I'm with you on this, but I want us to win. But you have this select team versus Witkoff and Jared and J.D. vance. I just. How do we win in this?
Jonathan Hackett
Well, plus these negotiators on the Iran side have been negotiating. The same people, the same named people have been negotiating for 40 years. They're super experienced. Yeah, They've met every American delegation and they've seen them come and go. It's kind of like us going to Afghanistan Every year and, and we meet the guys for the first time. They're meet, they've been there the whole time, you know, and it's, it's very similar to that.
Andy Milburn
So, so I mean like we're trying to come up with ideas and maybe I'll throw this to Andy. In fact, I will throw it Andy. One of the biggest issues of getting ships to the straight of Hormuz is getting ships to accept that it's safe enough even with US military escort. Do you think there's a way that we could basically ensure all these ships and even put our people on it to try to get the free flow? Because if we took that away from this becomes a different discussion. I'm throwing it out there. I don't have any basis to know whether that's a potential. But I think we need to start thinking out of the box right now because we're headed down to an Iranian successful outcome of this. Like is that a potential with the military escort and the military umbrella that would be over that we could start getting the free fall.
Mark Polymeropoulos
I think in answer to your question, I mean, and I hate to say this, but there's the military side. There's no clean military fix. The military side could be used to enable a negotiated agreement about Straits of Hormuz. That's the tough part about this. I mean, keeping it open by force is what the blockade already tried. It just turned the strait into contested space. It didn't really solve anything. So a long term military commitment to hold a 21 mile wide waterway against mines, fast boats and drones is not a strategy, it's a liability. Right. So the real fix, and it's not a good answer, I mean it's the only answer, it's just not a satisfactory one, is it's a slow structural approach. Right. Reduced dependence on the Strait itself. Saudi and UAE pipelines already bypass, they're already working on bypassing the straits with exporting their oil. But that's a long term approach. Find ways to make the cost of closing it land on Iran's own economy specifically, not just spike prices for the whole world. Right now the threat works precisely because the pain is global and diffuse. It's not concentrated on Tehran. So we can find a way to do that. I mean Hormuz isn't. Hormuz isn't a problem you can solve and it's a fact of geography and Iran will always be able to lean on it. The real progress is making that leverage work less by finding ways around it and also directing some of that pain back onto Tehran. So it can't be solved by the military, which of course, pains me to say. And while I'm here, and I know Dee's about to shut us down, he's got to go on to more important things. No, I'm loving this, but Mark and Mick have both kind of said, brought up the point that we need guys who really know what the goals are and how to negotiate. And we talked about what we should talk about. What do they do? So, very briefly, I think they need to handle Lebanon first. Right, because it's a live fuse. Iran has explicitly tied Hormuz access, the Lebanon ceasefire holding, and we just watched it use that exact justification to shut the strait down three days after signing the MoU. So Israel isn't a party to this deal. Washington's having to manage a partner. It doesn't control, you know, it doesn't control the clock. And that's going to mean real pressure on. They're going to have to bring real pressure on Israel, not just public statements asking for restraint, because restraint hasn't worked. And until that is solved, and I mean real pressure, I mean whatever leverage we have with Israel, it's a time to use it because our interests as nations have diverged. And again, I don't. I don't always agree with J.D. vance, but he's right in that point. And Lebanon can make the whole thing blow up in our face unless we clamp it down right now. And the way to do that is bring pressure on Israel. That's number one. Number two is get the nuclear mechanism verified, not just promise. 60 days isn't going to solve the problem, but it's enough time to convert the vague language into a binding kind of verified agreement similar to the jigpoa, Right, with real inspection access, a real timeline, something that costs Iran a real price if it walks away. And then the other way. The third thing is we've got to stop spending leverage before Iran has, has moved on anything. The blockade's gone. The frozen assets are already moving. That was round one, and it went before anything was verified. So whatever's left, the reconstruction fund, future sanctions relief, has to stay strictly conditional, this time tied to confirmed, verifiable steps, not handed over on good faith alone. So, I mean, the honest bottom line is Nobody seriously expects 60 days to resolve the missile program or the proxies or the stockpile. The real test is narrower. And that is what we can salvage out of the language from this mou. I think taking the steps we've already taken at the same time when it comes to Hormuz, looking for a longer term solution where we are not so dependent on Hormuz because this whole talk of us keeping it open militarily is absolutely impractical and it plays right into Iran's hands. So we want to figure out a way to remove that Trump cog from Iran.
Andy Milburn
Just makes you wonder, like when they talked about the strait closing and we knew it was going to be closed, what was the plan? What was the plan to either keep it open or prevent it from closing or. I mean, that's what you talk about in the policy coordination process. I mean, it's absolutely.
Mark Polymeropoulos
This is where I have a problem with Centcom, you know, and I think, I suspect, and Mark is right on this, that I mean, I don't know what advice was offered, but I feel that if you offer advice, if you're at that nexus right between policy and strategy and you have four stars on your collar, you should be willing to throw your career away for the sake of the nation. If you are offering advice. And you know that. Not following that.
Ryan Seacrest
Hey, it's Ryan Seacrest for Albertsons and Safeway.
Albertsons/Safeway Announcer
Summer is here and the sun is out.
Ryan Seacrest
Make sure you take care of your skin this summer.
Albertsons/Safeway Announcer
Now through June 23rd. Shop for you. Save days and get great savings on all your favorite skincare Essentials and earn 4 times points. Shop in store or online and save on sunblock from Neutrogena, Sun Bum, Hawaiian Tropic, Banana Boat and coppertone and earn 4 times points to use for future savings on groceries or gas. Offer ends June 23rd. Restrictions apply. Offers may vary.
Ryan Seacrest
Visit albertsons or safeway.com for more details.
Road Trip Speaker 1
Why is it always chaos when we link up?
Road Trip Speaker 2
Because nobody plans anything, bro. Good thing the Rogue's ready like that for real.
Road Trip Speaker 3
Rain, dirt, whatever available. All wheel drive, five modes. We still outside.
Road Trip Speaker 1
And they got some kick, too.
Road Trip Speaker 2
That turbo torque is crazy. The most in its class. It moves, moves.
Road Trip Speaker 3
Rogue doesn't mess around and peep the space merch on merch gear mics. All of it fits.
Road Trip Speaker 1
Load up. We out.
Road Trip Speaker 2
2026 Nissan Rogue built for all of it.
Road Trip Speaker 3
Auto Pacific segmentation 2026 Rogue vs latest in market competitors in the X SUV mainstream midsize class excluding electrical vehicles based on manufacturer websites.
Bluff
Forget whatever plans you have this weekend because you're staying at home and playing on Spinquest and there's never been a better time to sign up than right now. New users get $30 coin packs for just $10. All the table games you love with Hundreds of slot games and real cash Prizes. That's at spinquest.com S-P-I N Q U
Spin Quest Announcer
E S T Spin Quest is a free to play social casino void where prohibited. Visit spinquest.com for more details.
Mark Polymeropoulos
ICE it's going to be disastrous to your country's interests. Then it's time to resign. And, and we didn't see that. I don't know what happened. I don't know why Centcom wasn't banging the table harder on that piece, but it does make me suspicious and very disappointed.
Andy Milburn
Of course.
Mark Polymeropoulos
Not that anyone's really losing sleep.
Andy Milburn
They didn't say that. You know, here's your options and they all are not good. I don't know.
Mark Polymeropoulos
But yeah, I mean I seems. Yeah, in order for. But there needs to be some bite to that. Right? Here's your options. But if, if the boss goes down a path that you know is going to be disastrous, then what do you do? Just troll along and say, okay, well, he didn't take my advice.
Mick Mulroy
No.
Mark Polymeropoulos
As a four star general, you owe your country a little more than that. That's just my belief. You get treated like a, like a pro consul, like a viceroy. People genuflect in front of you. I mean, those of you wearing uniform know I'm not exaggerating. It's unbelievable the way we treat four stars as though they're gods. Well, when the time comes with that, you know, the whole Spider man thing, right, with, with great power comes great responsibility. And that includes being willing to say, okay, I'm going to walk away from this because what you're going to do, what you're about to do by not following my advice is going to seriously hurt our interests. I know that all the, all the counter arguments to this, blah, blah, blah, you are, you know, I'm not challenging civilian control. The military, far from it. I'm saying that the military has a very key role in, in,
Starbucks Narrator
in the
Mark Polymeropoulos
long run, helping political leadership not do things that are disastrous.
Mick Mulroy
I mean, look, the southcom commander or chief, remember he resigned, he retired. Do you want to know parties? So there is that option. So I just, I think it's fair.
Mark Polymeropoulos
And it does happen occasionally, very occasionally in the US Military too. Occasionally. I mean, Greg Newbolt was probably the last time a three star or four star resigned over a question of principle. And that was at the outset of the Iraq war.
Mick Mulroy
And Andy, the reason why I think it's fair to ask these questions is that the, the possibilities, and I hope it doesn't get that way for a complete strategic disaster right now for the United States is real. I mean that's how bad it could be. No, I, I, you know, I agree 100%. I mean this is a, this is a doozy, you know, that's why I'm
Mark Polymeropoulos
saying it's not okay to now, hey, you didn't take my advice and so I'm still going to draw my pay and be genufacted to. No, it doesn't work that way in my mind. Of course I never made above colonel, maybe that's why but
Podcast Host (Teamhouse)
man, oh man, okay. What a show. We'll see what happens obviously this week and we're gonna, once we get off here, we'll probably be looking on our Twitter to see about any kind of updates and stuff like that. With the talks in Switzerland right now. Yeah, I don't know what else to say. We're doing plugs. John Hackett, Great book. Iran Shadow Weapons, A Theory of a Regular War. Those links are in the description. Mick Mulroy, the Whitefish Security Summit link is in the description. Coming up in February of next year. Mark, I'm gonna put the link to the article you wrote recently down in the description as well that we mentioned, so check that out. Of course. Andy Milburn, when the Tempest Gathers. Great autobiography. That link is in the description as well. Do us a favor, if you like the show, hit it. Like hit. Subscribe rated 5 stars and check out our Patreon patreon.com/the team house for free episodes, early episodes and helping support the show. Guys, a pleasure as always and happy Father's Day.
Mick Mulroy
Ah, yes indeed.
Jonathan Hackett
Happy Father's Day, guys.
Podcast Host (Teamhouse)
Happy Father's Day. To John to be.
Jonathan Hackett
Yeah, that's right.
Mick Mulroy
Very cool.
Andy Milburn
Really find a pub.
Bluff
Wow.
Podcast Host (Teamhouse)
Mick's always looking for beers. Always.
Mick Mulroy
Yes.
Mark Polymeropoulos
The miracles of modern, of modern medical science. It doesn't matter what age you are now, you can still procreate. Good on you, John.
Jonathan Hackett
Thanks.
Podcast Host (Teamhouse)
Thanks guys.
Teamhouse Podcast Newsletter Announcer
Hey guys, I want to take a moment to tell you about the Teamhouse podcast newsletter. If you go and subscribe, it's totally free and what it will do is aggregate all of our data, all of our content that we put out, the things that are on the team House on our Geopolitics podcast. Eyes on things that I write journalistically with Sean Naylor on the high side. Anything else that we have going on books, we recommend upcoming guests that we have coming on the show and also, you know, filtering in some fun stuff in there as well. If you go and check it out, we send it out just once a week. We don't want to spam you guys. It's just a kind of roll up of all of our content on a weekly basis. You can find our newsletter@teamhousepodcast.kit.com join again. The website for that is teamhousepodcast.kit.com join so we hope to see you there.
Ryan Seacrest
Hey, it's Ryan Seacrest for Albertsons and Safeway.
Albertsons/Safeway Announcer
Summer is here and the sun is out.
Ryan Seacrest
Make sure you take care of your
Albertsons/Safeway Announcer
skin this summer now through June 23rd. Shop for you, save days and get great savings on all your favorite skincare Essentials and earn 4 times points. Shop in store or online and save on sunblock from Neutrogena, Sun Bum, Hawaiian Tropic, Banana Boat and coppertone and earn 4 times points to use for future savings on groceries or gas. Offer ends June 23rd. Restrictions apply. Offers may vary.
Ryan Seacrest
Visit albertsons or safeway.com for more details.
Road Trip Speaker 1
Bro, from the show last night to this drive, why is it never chill?
Road Trip Speaker 2
Because this is our life backstage on the road. It's loud, messy, real.
Road Trip Speaker 3
And that's the best part. Whole crew, no plan, just moving.
Road Trip Speaker 1
Good thing Nissan builds for that kind of chaos.
Road Trip Speaker 2
Not just test tracks. Real life scenes, late nights, road trips. All of it.
Road Trip Speaker 3
That's why it holds up. Nissan was ranked number one in initial quality among mainstream brands by J.D. power.
Road Trip Speaker 1
Yeah, you can tell.
Road Trip Speaker 3
2026 Nissan Rogue built for what really happens for J.D.
Road Trip Speaker 2
power. 2025 U.S. initial Quality Study Award information visit jdpower.com awards awards based on 2025 model year. Newer models may be shown.
Bluff
Hanging out at the pool is great. Relaxing and playing Vegas style games on my phone at the same time. Drink in one hand and a blackjack in the other. It's all at spinquest. Over a thousand games including your favorite slots and table games. Be cool with this summer special. New players get 30 coin packs for
Spin Quest Announcer
10@spin quest.com Spin Quest is a free to play social casino void where prohibited. Visit spinquest.com for more details.
Teamhouse Podcast Newsletter Announcer
The link will be down in the description.
Ryan Seacrest
Hey, it's Ryan Seacrest for Albertsons and safeway.
Albertsons/Safeway Announcer
Now through June 23rd. Shop for you, save days and get great savings on all your favorite personal care Essentials and earn 4 times points. Shop in store or online and save on items like head and shoulder shampoo, Pantene shampoo, Tresemme Conditioner, l' Oreal hair dye, Tresemme hair Spray and Aussie Miracle Curls and earn four times points to use for future savings on groceries or Gas offer ends June 23. Restrictions apply. Offers may vary.
Ryan Seacrest
Visit albertsons or safeway.com for more details.
Road Trip Speaker 1
Why is it always chaos when we link up?
Road Trip Speaker 2
Because nobody plans anything, bro. Good thing the Rogue's ready like that for real.
Road Trip Speaker 3
Rain, dirt, whatever Available all wheel drive, five modes. We still outside.
Road Trip Speaker 1
And they got some kick too.
Road Trip Speaker 2
That turbo torque is crazy. The most in its class. It moves, moves.
Road Trip Speaker 3
Rogue doesn't mess around and peep the space merch on merch gear mics. All of it fits.
Road Trip Speaker 1
Load up, we out.
Road Trip Speaker 2
2026 Nissan Rogue built for all of it.
Road Trip Speaker 3
Auto Pacific segmentation 2026 Rogue vs latest in market competitors in the X SUV mainstream mid size class excluding electrical vehicles based on manufacturer websites.
Bretzky
What's up everybody? It's Bretzky and America is turning 250 and I can't think of a better way to celebrate that than playing on an American owned social casino. Spinquest.com with all of your favorite games, live craft, bubble craps, live blackjack, there's no better place to play for free and win real cash prizes.
Spin Quest Announcer
Spinquest.com Spin Quest is a free to play social casino void where prohibited. Visit spend quest.com for more details.
Ryan Seacrest
Hey, it's Ryan Seacrest for Albertsons and Safeway.
Albertsons/Safeway Announcer
Summer is here and the sun is out.
Ryan Seacrest
Make sure you take care of your skin this summer.
Albertsons/Safeway Announcer
Now through June 23rd. Shop for you, save days and get great savings on all your favorite skincare Essentials and earn 4 times points. Shop in store or online and save on sunblock from Neutrogena Sun Bum, Hawaiian Tropic, Banana Boat and Coppertone. And earn four times points to use for future savings on groceries or gas. Offer ends June 23rd. Restrictions apply. Offers may vary.
Ryan Seacrest
Visit albertsons or safeway.com for more details.
Road Trip Speaker 1
Why is it always chaos when we link up?
Road Trip Speaker 2
Because nobody plans anything, bro. Good thing the rug's ready like that for real.
Road Trip Speaker 3
Rain, dirt, whatever available all wheel drive, five modes.
Road Trip Speaker 1
We still outside and they got some kick to that.
Road Trip Speaker 2
Turbo torque is crazy. The most in its class. It moves, moves.
Road Trip Speaker 3
Rogue doesn't mess around and peep the space merch on merch gear mics. All of it fits.
Road Trip Speaker 1
Load up, we out.
Road Trip Speaker 2
2026 Nissan Rogue built for all of it.
Road Trip Speaker 3
Auto Pacific segmentation 2026 Rogue vs latest in market competitors in the X SUV mainstream mid size class excluding electrical vehicles based on manufacturer websites.
Bluff
What's going on everyone? It's bluff here and we're driving through the states in the Bluff Mobile and the best thing that we can do is play our favorite casino style games on Spin Quest. They have over a thousand games including
Jonathan Hackett
live dealer blackjack and craps.
Bluff
With tons of slots and unlimited options, you can get a 30 coin pack for just $10. For new users sign up today. Go to spinquest.com right now Spinquest is
Spin Quest Announcer
a free to play social casino void where prohibited. Visit spinquest.com for more details.
Ryan Seacrest
Hey, it's Ryan Seacrest for Albertsons and safeway.
Albertsons/Safeway Announcer
Now through June 23rd. Shop for you. Save days and get great savings on all your favorite personal care Essentials and earn 4 times points. Shop in store or online and save on items like head and shoulder shampoo, Pantene shampoo, Tresemme conditioner, l' Oreal hair dye, Tresemme Hairspray and Aussie Miracle Curls and earn four times points to use for future savings on groceries or gas. Offer ends June 23rd. Restrictions apply. Offers may vary.
Ryan Seacrest
Visit albertsons or safeway.com for more details.
Road Trip Speaker 1
Bro, from the show last night to this drive, why is it never chill?
Road Trip Speaker 2
Because this is our life backstage on the road. It's loud, messy, real.
Road Trip Speaker 3
And that's the best part. Whole crew, no plan, just moving.
Road Trip Speaker 1
Good thing Nissan builds for that kind of chaos.
Road Trip Speaker 2
Not just test tracks. Real life scenes, late nights, road trips, all of it.
Road Trip Speaker 3
That's why it holds up. Nissan was ranked number one in initial quality among mainstream brands by J.D. power.
Road Trip Speaker 1
Yeah, you can tell.
Road Trip Speaker 3
2026 Nissan Rogue. Built for what really happens for J.D.
Road Trip Speaker 2
power. 2025 U.S. initial Quality Study Award information. Visit jdpower.com awards awards based on 2025 model year. Newer models may be shown.
Bretzky
What's up everybody? It's Bretzky and America is turning 200 million 50. And I can't think of a better way to celebrate that than playing on an American owned social casino. Spin quest.com with all of your favorite games. Live crabs, Bubble craps, live blackjack, there's no better place to play for free and win real cash prizes.
Spin Quest Announcer
Spin quest.com Spin quest is a free to play social casino void where prohibited. Visit spinquest.com for more details.
Ryan Seacrest
Hey, it's Ryan Seacrest for Albertsons and Safeway.
Albertsons/Safeway Announcer
This summer. Stock up on your favorite brands for both you and your home. Now through June 23rd. Get big deals on everyday essentials from Procter and Gamble. Shop in store or online for savings on items like Swiffer Power Mop, Febreze Plug Warmer, Herbal Essence shampoo, Old Spice 2 in one, Crest Scope toothpaste, Secret Deodorant Spray and Head and Shoulder shampoo. Get these deals before they're gone. Offer ends June 23rd.
Ryan Seacrest
Restrictions apply.
Albertsons/Safeway Announcer
Offers may vary.
Ryan Seacrest
Visit albertsons or safeway.com for more details.
Road Trip Speaker 1
Why is it always chaos when we link up?
Road Trip Speaker 2
Because nobody plans anything, bro. Good thing the Rogue's ready like that for real.
Road Trip Speaker 3
Rain, dirt, whatever Available all wheel drive, five modes. We still outside.
Road Trip Speaker 1
And they got some kick too.
Road Trip Speaker 2
That turbo torque is crazy. The most in its class. It moves, moves.
Road Trip Speaker 3
Rogue doesn't mess around and peep the space merch on merch. Gear mics. All of it fits.
Road Trip Speaker 1
Load up, we out.
Road Trip Speaker 2
2026 Nissan Rogue built for all of it.
Road Trip Speaker 3
Auto Pacific Segmentation 2026 Rogue vs latest in market Competitors in the EX SUV mainstream Mid Size class excluding electrical vehicles based on manufactured websites.
Bretzky
Oh, I have had no luck lately.
Ryan Seacrest
Wait.
Lady Luck
Lady Luck Ritzki. I got you. I've had so much luck on spinquest.com they have all of my favorite games, slot games, live blackjack, craps and bubble craps. You can even get a 30 coin pack for just 10 bucks.
Bretzky
10 bucks for 30. I'm headed over to spinquest.com right now.
Spin Quest Announcer
Spin Quest is a free to play social casino void where prohibited. Visit spinquest.com for more details.
Ryan Seacrest
Hey, it's Ryan Seacrest for Albertsons and Safeway.
Albertsons/Safeway Announcer
Summer is here and the sun is out.
Ryan Seacrest
Make sure you take care of your skin this summer.
Albertsons/Safeway Announcer
Now through June 23rd. Shop for you. Save days and get great savings on all your favorite skincare Essentials and earn 4 times points. Shop in store or online and save on sunblock from Neutrogena, Sun Bum, Hawaiian Tropic, Banana Boat and Coppertone and earn four times points to use for future savings on groceries or gas. Offer ends June 23rd. Restrictions apply. Offers may vary.
Ryan Seacrest
Visit albertsons or safeway.com for more details.
Road Trip Speaker 1
Why is it always chaos when we link up?
Road Trip Speaker 2
Because nobody plans anything, bro. Good thing the Rogue's ready like that for real.
Road Trip Speaker 3
Rain, dirt, whatever Available all wheel drive, five modes. We still outside.
Road Trip Speaker 1
And they got some kick too.
Road Trip Speaker 2
That turbo torque is crazy. The most in its class. It moves, moves.
Road Trip Speaker 3
Rogue doesn't mess around and peep the space merch on merch Gear mics. All of it fits.
Road Trip Speaker 1
Load up, we out.
Road Trip Speaker 2
2026 Nissan Rogue built for all of it.
Road Trip Speaker 3
Auto Pacific Segmentation 2026 Rogue vs latest in market Competitors in the EX SUV mainstream Mid Size class excluding electrical vehicles based on manufacturer websites.
Mick Mulroy
Hey everybody.
Lady Luck
Lady Luck here. And we're celebrating America's 250th birthday. Now all summer long. I'm going to be celebrating by playing on finquest.com which is an American owned social casino. It obviously features over a thousand slot games and live blackjack, live craps, live bubble craps. Head on over to spinquest.com get yourself a 30 coin pack for just 10 bucks.
Spin Quest Announcer
Spin Quest is a free to play social casino, Boyd. Where prohibited. Visit spinquest.com for more details.
Ryan Seacrest
Hey, it's Ryan Seacrest for Albertsons and safeway.
Albertsons/Safeway Announcer
Now through June 23rd. Shop for you. Save days and get great savings on all your favorite personal care Essentials and earn 4 times points. Shop in store or online and save on items like head and shoulder shampoo, Pantene shampoo, Tresemme Conditioner, l' Oreal hair dye, Tresemme Hairspray and Aussie Miracle Curls and earn four times points to use for future savings on groceries or gas. Offer ends June 23rd. Restrictions apply. Offers may vary.
Ryan Seacrest
Visit albertsons or safeway.com for more details.
Road Trip Speaker 1
Bro, from the show last night to this drive, why is it never chill?
Road Trip Speaker 2
Because this is our live backstage on the road. It's loud, messy, real.
Road Trip Speaker 3
And that's the best part. Whole crew, no plan, just moving.
Road Trip Speaker 1
Good thing Nissan builds for that kind of chaos.
Road Trip Speaker 2
Not just test tracks, real life scenes, late nights, road trips, all of it.
Road Trip Speaker 3
That's why it holds up. Nissan was ranked number one in initial quality among mainstream brands by J.D. power.
Road Trip Speaker 1
Yeah, you can tell.
Road Trip Speaker 3
2026 Nissan Rogue built for what really happens for J.D.
Road Trip Speaker 2
power. 2025 US Initial Quality Study Award information visit jdpower.com awards awards based on 2025 model year. Newer models may be shown.
Bluff
Hanging out at the pool is great. Relaxing and playing Vegas style games on my phone at the same time. Drink in one hand and a blackjack in the other. It's all at Spinquest. Over a thousand games including your favorite slots and table games. Be cool with this summer special. New players get 30 coin packs for
Spin Quest Announcer
10@spin quest.com Spin Quest is a free to play social casino void where prohibited. Visit spinquest.com for more details.
Ryan Seacrest
Hey, it's Ryan Seacrest for Albertsons and Safeway this summer.
Albertsons/Safeway Announcer
Stock up on your favorite brands for both you and your home. Now through June 23rd. Get big deals on everyday essentials from Procter and Gamble. Shop in store or online for savings on items like Swiffer Power Mop, Febreze Plug warmer, Herbal Essence shampoo, Old Spice, two in one, Crest Scope toothpaste, Secret Deodorant spray and head and shoulder shampoo. Get these deals before they're gone. Offer ends June 23rd.
Ryan Seacrest
Restrictions apply.
Albertsons/Safeway Announcer
Offers may vary.
Ryan Seacrest
Visit albertsons or safeway.com for more details.
Road Trip Speaker 1
Why is it always chaos when we link up?
Road Trip Speaker 2
Cuz nobody plans anything, bro. Good thing the rug's ready like that for real.
Road Trip Speaker 3
Rain, dirt, whatever Available all wheel drive, five modes. We still outside.
Road Trip Speaker 1
And they got some kick too.
Road Trip Speaker 2
That turbo torque is crazy. The most in its class. It moves, moves.
Road Trip Speaker 3
Rogue doesn't mess around and peep the space merch on merch Gear mics. All of it fits.
Road Trip Speaker 1
Load up, we out.
Road Trip Speaker 2
2026 Nissan Rogue built for all of it.
Road Trip Speaker 3
Auto Pacific segmentation 2026 Rogue vs latest in market competitors in the X SUV mainstream mid size class excluding electrical vehicles based on manufacturer websites.
Bretzky
Oh, I have had no luck lately.
Ryan Seacrest
Wait.
Lady Luck
Lady luck Ritzky. I got you. I've had so much luck on spinquest.com they have all of my favorite games, slot games, live blackjack craps and bubble craps. You can even get a 30 coin pack for just 10 bucks.
Bretzky
10 bucks for 30. I'm headed over to spinquest.com right now.
Spin Quest Announcer
Spinquest is a free to play social casino void where prohibited. Visit spinquest.com for more details.
Ryan Seacrest
Hey, it's Ryan Seacrest for Albertsons and Safeway this summer.
Albertsons/Safeway Announcer
Stock up on your favorite brands for both you and your home. Now through June 23rd, get big deals on everyday essentials from Procter and Gamble. Shop in store or online for savings on items like Swiffer Power Mop, Febreze Plug Warmer, Herbal Essence shampoo, Old Spice, two in one, Crest Scope toothpaste, Secret deodorant spray and head and shoulder shampoo. Get these deals before they're gone. Offer ends June 23rd.
Ryan Seacrest
Restrictions apply.
Albertsons/Safeway Announcer
Offers may vary.
Ryan Seacrest
Visit albertsons or safeway.com for more details.
Road Trip Speaker 1
Why is it always chaos when we link up?
Road Trip Speaker 2
Because nobody plans anything, bro. Good thing the Rogue's ready like that for real.
Road Trip Speaker 3
Rain, dirt, whatever available all wheel drive, five modes. We still outside.
Road Trip Speaker 1
And they got some kick too.
Road Trip Speaker 2
That turbo torque is crazy. The most in its class. It moves, moves.
Road Trip Speaker 3
Rogue doesn't mess around and peep the space merch on merch gear mics. All of it fits.
Road Trip Speaker 1
Load up, we out.
Road Trip Speaker 2
2026 Nissan Rogue built for all of it.
Road Trip Speaker 3
Auto Pacific segmentation 2026 Rogue vs latest in market Competitors in the EX SUV mainstream midsize class excluding electrical vehicles based on manufacturer websites.
Mick Mulroy
Hey everybody.
Lady Luck
Lady luck here. And we're celebrating America's 250th birthday.
Andy Milburn
Birthday.
Lady Luck
Now all summer long I'm going to be celebrating by playing on spinquest.com which is an American owned social casino. It obviously features over a thousand slot games and live blackjack, live craps, live bubble craps. Head on over to spinquest.com get yourself a 30 coin pack for just 10 bucks.
Spin Quest Announcer
Spin Quest is a free to play social casino. Boyd where prohibited. Visit spinquest.com for more details.
Albertsons/Safeway Announcer
Foreign.
Ryan Seacrest
Hey, it's Ryan Seacrest for Albertsons and Safeway.
Albertsons/Safeway Announcer
Summer is here and the sun is out.
Ryan Seacrest
Make sure you take care of your skin this summer.
Albertsons/Safeway Announcer
Now through June 23rd. Shop for you, save days and get great savings on all your favorite skincare Essentials and earn 4 times points. Shop in store or online and save on sunblock from Neutrogena, Sun Bum, Hawaiian Tropics, Banana Boat and coppertone and earn 4 times points to use for future savings on groceries or gas. Offer ends June 23rd. Restrictions apply. Offers may vary.
Ryan Seacrest
Visit albertsons or safeway.com for more details.
Road Trip Speaker 1
Bro, from the show last night to this drive, why is it never chill?
Road Trip Speaker 2
Because this is our life backstage on the road. It's loud, messy, real.
Road Trip Speaker 3
And that's the best part. Whole crew, no plan, just moving.
Road Trip Speaker 1
Good thing Nissan builds for that kind of chaos.
Road Trip Speaker 2
Not just test tracks, real life scenes, late nights, road trips, all of it.
Road Trip Speaker 3
That's why it holds up. Nissan was ranked number one in initial quality among mainstream brands by J.D. power.
Road Trip Speaker 1
Yeah, you can tell.
Road Trip Speaker 3
2026 Nissan Rogue. Built for what really happens for J.D.
Road Trip Speaker 2
power. 2025 US Initial Quality Study Award information. Visit JDPower.com Awards Awards based on 2025 model year. Newer models may be shown.
Bretzky
Oh, I have had no luck lately.
Albertsons/Safeway Announcer
Wait.
Lady Luck
Lady Luck Ritzky. I got you. I've had so much luck on spinquest.com they have all of my favorite games, slot games, live, blackjack, craps and bubble craps. You can even get a 30 coin pack for just 10 bucks.
Bretzky
10 bucks for 30. I'm headed over to spinquest.com right now.
Spin Quest Announcer
Spinquest is a free to play social casino void where prohibited. Visit spinquest.com for more details.
Ryan Seacrest
Hey, it's Ryan Seacrest for Albertsons and Safeway.
Albertsons/Safeway Announcer
Summer is here and the sun is out.
Ryan Seacrest
Make sure you take care of your skin this summer.
Albertsons/Safeway Announcer
Now through June 23rd. Shop for you, save days and get great savings on all your favorite skincare Essentials and earn 4 times points. Shop in store or online and save on sunblock from Neutrogena, Sun Bum, Hawaiian Tropic, Banana Boat and coppertone and earn 4 times points to use for future savings on groceries or gas. Offer ends June 23rd. Restrictions apply. Offers may vary.
Ryan Seacrest
Visit albertsons or safeway.com for more details.
Road Trip Speaker 1
Why is it always chaos when we link up?
Road Trip Speaker 2
Because nobody plans anything, bro. Good thing the Rogue's ready like that for real.
Road Trip Speaker 3
Rain, dirt, whatever Available all wheel drive, five modes.
Road Trip Speaker 1
We still outside and they got some kick too.
Road Trip Speaker 2
That turbo torque is crazy. The most in its class it moves, moves.
Road Trip Speaker 3
Rogue doesn't mess around around and peep the space merch on merch gear mics all of it fits Load up we
Road Trip Speaker 2
out 2026 Nissan Rogue built for all
Road Trip Speaker 3
of it Auto Pacific Segmentation 2026 Rogue vs latest in market Competitors in the EX SUV mainstream Mid Size class excluding electrical vehicles based on manufacturer websites.
Mick Mulroy
Hey everybody.
Lady Luck
Lady luck here and we're celebrating America's 250th birthday. Now all summer long I'm going to be celebrating by playing on spinquest.com which is an American owned social casino. It obviously features over a thousand slot games and live blackjack, live craps, live bubble craps. Head on over to spinquest.com get yourself a 30 coin pack for just 10 bucks.
Spin Quest Announcer
Spin Quest is a free to play social casino Boyd. Where prohibited. Visit spinquest.com for more details.
Ryan Seacrest
Hey, it's Ryan Seacrest for Albertsons and Safeway.
Albertsons/Safeway Announcer
Summer is here and the sun is out.
Ryan Seacrest
Make sure you take care of your skin this summer.
Albertsons/Safeway Announcer
Now through June 23rd. Shop for you, save days and get great savings on all your favorite skincare Essentials and earn 4 times points. Shop in store or online and save on sunblock from Neutrogena Sun, Bum, Hawaiian Tropic, Banana Boat and coppertone and earn 4 times points to use for future savings on groceries or gas. Offer ends June 23rd. Restrictions apply. Offers may vary.
Ryan Seacrest
Visit albertsons or safeway.com for more details.
Bluff
Happy Birthday America. It's time to celebrate and play your favorite Las Vegas casino games by American owned spinquest.com what's better than fireworks and American pie? Hitting a blackjack in the palm of your hand and you won't lose your fingers. Over a thousand games including slots and live dealers and $30 coin packs are on sale for 10 spinquest.com buy American players.
Spin Quest Announcer
For American players, Spin Quest is a free to play social casino boy. Where prohibited. Visit spinquest.com for more details. It's called soccer.
Road Trip Speaker 3
It's called football.
Jonathan Hackett
Soccer, Football.
Bluff
Domino's best deal ever.
Jonathan Hackett
Lets you get any pizza including stuffed crust with any toppings for 9.99.
Spin Quest Announcer
Okay, we can agree on that.
Jonathan Hackett
Yeah, fully.
Spin Quest Announcer
So pineapple? Don't ruin it. Get any pizza, including stuffed crust with any toppings for 9.99.
Jonathan Hackett
Finally, something everyone can get behind. And if the rest disagree, that's between them and Domino's. Which means the only thing left to
Spin Quest Announcer
fight over over is who's ordering Dom Minnows.
Albertsons/Safeway Announcer
Price is higher for some locations.
Jonathan Hackett
Excludes XL and specialty pizzas. Select this offer from 6:15 to 7:26 online only.
Albertsons/Safeway Announcer
Size availability varies by crust type. Max 7 toppings, 6 for pan and
Jonathan Hackett
New York style crust. Minimum purchase required for delivery. Prices, participation, delivery area and charges may vary.
Podcast: The Team House – Eyes on Geopolitics
Episode: Iran’s Trump Card: Hormuz
Date: June 22, 2026
Host/Panel: Andy Milburn, Mark Polymeropoulos, Jonathan Hackett, Mick Mulroy
Main Theme:
A deep-dive roundtable on the evolving U.S.-Iran standoff, the implications of the recent Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) for a 60-day ceasefire involving the Strait of Hormuz, the reality of Iran’s economic resilience, regional power dynamics, American diplomatic strategy, and lessons (not) learned.
The episode unpacks the dizzying pace of diplomatic and military developments between the U.S., Iran, Israel, Hezbollah, and GCC countries following the signing of a fragile ceasefire. Panelists break down the military, economic, and political significance of the Strait of Hormuz as Iran’s strategic “trump card,” the effectiveness and pitfalls of the U.S. strategy, and the broader stakes for American credibility and Middle East security.
Andy Milburn and Mark Polymeropoulos [04:46–10:26]
Jonathan Hackett [10:31–14:12]
Mark Polymeropoulos, Mick Mulroy, Andy Milburn [13:19–21:22]
Mark Polymeropoulos, Andy Milburn [24:24–29:18, 38:30–41:05]
Mark Polymeropoulos, Jonathan Hackett, Andy Milburn, Mick Mulroy [41:09–47:11]
Panel [52:38–58:17]
Jonathan Hackett, Andy Milburn, Mick Mulroy [60:01–64:52]
Panel [65:34–71:43]
[72:05–76:54]
This dense, unfiltered discussion highlights a sobering assessment: Iran’s long-term strategic planning has outmaneuvered the U.S. militarily, economically, and diplomatically—at least for now. The combination of Washington dysfunction, overconfidence, and a lack of clear endgame has enabled Iran to leverage the Strait of Hormuz and regional proxies to extract concessions and cement its position, while the U.S. grapples with lost credibility and a worsening strategic posture in the Middle East.
Further Reading / Plugs: