Iran–US Ceasefire Deal: Is It Legit? | EYES ON GEOPOLITICS

Summary

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The Team House: Eyes On Geopolitics

Episode: Iran–US Ceasefire Deal: Is It Legit?

Date: May 25, 2026
Hosts: Sean (Dee Takos), Mark Polymoropoulos, Andy Milburn

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Episode Overview

This episode tackles the highly anticipated but uncertain Iran–US ceasefire deal—a 60-day ceasefire extension with talks to open the Strait of Hormuz, release frozen Iranian assets, and possibly set a path for nuclear negotiations. The panel brings real-time analysis from national security experts in the field, weighing the potential impacts on global security, US politics, and the broader geopolitical landscape, with additional discussion on US posture in the Middle East, upcoming challenges like Cuba, and a late segment on Ukraine and Russia.

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Main Discussion Points & Insights

1. Setting the Stage: Memorial Day Reflections

• The show opens on Memorial Day weekend, with a reminder to honor those who made the ultimate sacrifice (“enjoy the day, because their son and daughter would have wanted that”—Mark, [01:41]).
• The hosts express the gravity and emotional weight of the day, especially for veterans and families.

2. The Iran–US Ceasefire Deal: Substance or Smokescreen?

Deal Outline and MOU Dynamics ([03:05]–[07:20])

• Andy summarizes the deal’s scope: a 60-day ceasefire extension, focus on opening the Strait of Hormuz, lifting the US naval blockade, and a framework for future nuclear and regional talks.
• Key Contradiction: US claims Iran committed to surrendering enriched uranium; Iran denies any nuclear pledges—real progress is limited to talking about talking.
  • “Washington says Tehran has committed to surrendering its highly enriched uranium stockpile. Tehran says it said nothing about the nuclear program at all.” — Andy [06:02]
• Deferred Issues: Hard problems (enrichment, sanctions, regional proxies, missiles) are “kicked down the road.”

Frozen Assets as Regime Lifeline ([07:20]–[11:56])

• $25 billion in unfrozen assets are highlighted as an “existential necessity” for Iran’s collapsed economy.
  • “That’s a really big deal because that’s stuff that can’t be taken back. You can’t bomb that back.”—Mark [07:46]
• Mark notes the risk: the regime becomes more resilient, potentially “bolstered and even more isolated from the effects ... than before”—and Iran’s people remain worse off.

Regional and Domestic Political Fallout ([11:56]–[16:44])

• The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is largely insulated from the country’s economic pain and may actually thrive under continued conflict.
• Gulf states (especially UAE and Saudi Arabia) support the memorandum but seek explicit US security guarantees.
• Israel is deeply skeptical, especially about any leniency on Hezbollah/Lebanon.
  • “That’s why the Israelis are upset about this because... that’s kind of a no-go for them.” — Mark [16:36]

US Political Theater ([07:20]–[16:44])

• Right-wing “pro-war” factions are having an “apocalyptic meltdown” on social media. Some Trump allies now publicly feuding (example: blunt pushback to Mike Pompeo on Truth Social).
  • “His kind of really odd looking human communications director... telling him to shut the fuck up.” — Mark [08:24]
• The analysis suggests Trump may either withstand or cave to pressure, but maximalist US demands are unlikely to be met.
  • “Did the war weaken the regime, or give it a lifeline? Are the Iranian people better off? And I think the answer to that is an unequivocal no.” — Mark [11:25]

3. Strategic Reassessment Post-Deal

Regional Realignment ([19:31]–[26:58])

• Mark and Andy discuss how GCC states may now seek new security arrangements, possibly independent of the US, driven by doubts about US dependability.
• “I can say certainly that the US has lost credibility in the region and that may be an understatement.” — Andy [22:03]
• UAE may even contemplate leaving OPEC or the Arab League, fragmenting Gulf cohesion.

Strait of Hormuz Reopening and Tolls ([23:25]–[26:58])

• Iran’s offer to open the Strait amid talk of environmental “fees” raises concerns: Will GCC tolerate Iran profiting from tolls if it helps economic flows? Risk depends on fee level and transparency.
• Unresolved tensions linger—mine-clearing will be slow, insurance rates remain high, and IRGC small craft will still pose risks.

Verbal Commitments on Uranium: A Weak Link ([26:58])

• The supposed Iranian verbal agreement to remove enriched uranium is seen as shockingly weak.
  • “A verbal commitment... that to me is rather extraordinary.”—Mark [26:58]
• “They've never won a war, they've never lost a negotiation”—Mark, on Iranian negotiation prowess.

4. US Military Posture: Strategic Overreach? ([30:03]–[34:32])

• The US now has three aircraft carriers, 41% of all Navy assets, and ~15,000 personnel in the Middle East—raising questions about overstretch and vulnerability elsewhere (e.g., Taiwan, NATO).
  • “I don't think that we can sustain this posture indefinitely without cost to other commitments.” — Andy [31:32]
• The deal may be a “face-saving way to begin drawing down without appearing to retreat.”

Impact on Global Perceptions

• Despite tactical successes, the war is judged a failure in its strategic and political aims.
  • “It's hard to argue that right now we're in a better peace... than we were before the war.” — Andy [34:25]

5. The Next Flashpoint: Cuba in US Sights ([34:32]–[48:44])

• Discussion pivots to Cuba, with speculation Trump is gearing up for confrontation after Iran and Venezuela.
• Harsh economic pressure (“blockade”) hits regular Cubans far harder than the regime. US policy debates whether pressure alone could topple the government.
  • “I'm not sure if I'm with that either because... regular people get screwed per usual.”—Sean [38:33]
• Marco Rubio’s influence as a Cuban-American political figure is highlighted, but hosts doubt even regime change would reshape the US political calculus in Florida.
• Rumors of special operations mobilization (soft units pulling out of exercises) spur speculation, but panelists caution much of this is “noise” not signal.

6. Tulsi Gabbard Departure & US Intelligence Leadership ([48:58]–[51:57])

• The group weighs in on Tulsi Gabbard’s resignation as DNI, attributing it to her opposition to the Iran war and lack of presidential access.
  • “Someone who doesn’t have the President’s ear cannot be the DNI, period.”—Mark [49:10]
• The episode predicts Tom Cotton’s push to abolish the DNI structure will gain steam.

7. Ukraine–Russia: Shifting Tides and Western Indifference ([51:57]–[63:35])

• Massive Russian missile/drone attacks on Kyiv highlight Ukraine’s resilient defenses: only two killed despite 690+ assets incoming.
  • “The scale of the attack... just hard to imagine.” — Andy [52:57]
• Russia uses hypersonic weapons—likely as a show of escalation dominance—but Ukraine’s air defense and intelligence shine.
  • “Ukrainian intelligence... is an understatement to call world-class.” — Andy [59:08]
• The US government is now virtually silent after such attacks, with Europe taking the lead on support.
  • “Tragic... is the lack of US Response. This was a terrible war crime. It should have had absolute condemnation from the US Side. But at this point, I think a lot of us have given up.”—Mark [60:22]

8. Final Thought: Limits of Force, Costs of Overreach

• B.H. Liddell Hart’s maxim: “The object of war is to attain a better peace.” Hosts largely agree the US and the world are not in a better peace post-war.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the Iran deal's superficiality:
  • “Both sides have an incentive not to go back to war. That is clear too, despite all the chest beating. And this MOU buys time, but it doesn't... hasn't resolved the conflict.” — Andy [07:16]
• On the $25 billion in assets:
  • “That’s a lifeline the regime. So I think that to me is one kind of aspect of this that really has to be looked at closely.” — Mark [07:54]
• On US credibility:
  • “The US has lost credibility in the region and that may be an understatement.” — Andy [22:03]
• On US military overstretch:
  • “Three aircraft carriers... 41% of the entire US Navy right now deployed worldwide. In this one region. It’s a great time to invade Taiwan, isn’t it?” — Andy [31:24]
• On Cuba
  • “I'm sure Raul Castro's still smoking his cigars, having his caviar, whatever the fuck, and regular people again, screwed per usual.” — Sean [38:33]
• On Ukraine’s defense and Western disengagement:
  • “Ukrainian intelligence, I'm sure Mark will agree, is to say it's world class is an understatement... the warning was accurate, the attack happened anyway.” — Andy [59:09]
  • “This was a terrible war crime. It should have had absolute condemnation from the US Side. But at this point, I think a lot of us have given up.” — Mark [60:22]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Memorial Day & Introduction: [01:01]–[03:05]
• Iran Deal Deep Dive (content, politics): [03:05]–[16:44]
• Regional Realignment: [19:31]–[26:58]
• Military Posture & Overstretch: [30:03]–[34:32]
• Cuba Policy Speculation: [34:32]–[48:44]
• US Intel/Leadership Shakeup (Gabbard departure): [48:58]–[51:57]
• Ukraine–Russia, Western Reaction: [51:57]–[63:35]
• Closing, Further Reading & Social Media: [63:38]–[64:59]

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Final Thoughts & Takeaways

• The Iran ceasefire is more a “pause to negotiate” than a substantive peace: existential issues (nuclear, sanctions, proxies) are deferred.
• US and Iranian narratives diverge sharply; Trump faces right-wing blowback but may get cover if the deal stabilizes global markets.
• The release of Iranian assets may prop up the regime, undercutting hopes for domestic reform or pressure for collapse.
• US allies in the Gulf and Israel are recalculating, with US credibility sharply diminished in the region.
• Massive US force posture may be unsustainable, leaving America strategically vulnerable elsewhere.
• The administration appears increasingly distracted, with Cuba potentially next on the intervention wish-list.
• On Ukraine, US silence following Russian escalation underscores a pivot away from involvement; Europe picks up the slack.
• As the panel notes, “it’s hard to argue we are in a better peace right now”—a sobering assessment for US global strategy.

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Further Reading/Resources:

• War on the Rocks article by Andy Milburn (link in episode description)
• Follow panelists on Twitter for real-time geopolitical insights.

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This summary is intended for listeners seeking an in-depth briefing on the episode’s key themes, strategic insights, and memorable exchanges. For more, follow The Team House and Eyes On Geopolitics.

Transcript

[Sean]

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[Sean]

Hey, everybody. Welcome to another episode of Eyes on Geopolitics. I fired everybody. Now it's just Greeks only. No, I'm just kidding. I'm here with Mark Polymoropoulos, who might be joined with a couple of the other guys. Everyone's traveling. It's Memorial Day weekend. So happy Memorial Day to everybody. You know, take a second while you're grilling or trying to stay away from the rain that's here in New York to think about why we celebrate it. So, you know, people that gave up their lives for what we have and stuff like that from every single war we've been into. So happy Memorial Day to everybody. Mark, how you doing?

[Mark Polymoropoulos]

I got a nasty cold, but unlike our other colleagues, I've chosen to join podcast today.

[Sean]

Thank you.

[Mark Polymoropoulos]

The hero move? No, but great comments just now about Memorial Day. You know, there's so much to kind of say about that, but just the idea of, you know, those who paid the ultimate sacrifice. I think back to friends and colleagues at CIA who lost their lives. This is a very difficult day for their families. And so it's always. It's always good to kind of stop, you know, step back, take a pause, whatever you're doing on this weekend, as you said, grilling, enjoying something you don't have to mourn. You don't have to, you know, kind of lock yourself in your room. But do take take a moment to think about those who made the ultimate sacrifice. And I think, you know, one of the things when I've, I've thought about this in other memorial days and talked to, in essence, gold star families, and they actually told me, they said, you know, what Enjoy the day, because their son and daughter would have wanted that. And I thought that was important too. So. No, thanks for, thanks for mentioning that.

[Sean]

Yeah, of course.

[Mark Polymoropoulos]

We got Andy.

[Sean]

Andy Milburn's here. Andy, how are you?

[Andy Milburn]

I'm doing peachy.

[Sean]

You look lovely.

[Andy Milburn]

I've been on various Arabic channels today speculating the questions they ask about what's going on in Trump's mind. And I always say, hey, I would be a. I wouldn't be on your damn channel for a couple of hundred bucks. If I could get inside Trump's mind, I would be a millionaire.

[Sean]

Yeah. All right. So we said Happy Memorial Day and stuff like that, for people to take, you know, a little bit of time and actually think about what it means and, you know, let's, I guess, get into it. I mean, Andy's been on, you know, Arabic TV for probably the last couple days talking about this deal that was supposed to happen. What is it called, the Memorandum of Understanding or whatever kind of bullshit they tag onto it. It was for a 60 day ceasefire extension that would talk about hopefully opening up the straight of Hormuz, lifting the blockade on the straight of Hormuz, our Iranian shipping, and obviously stop the hostilities and also set up a framework to talk about the nuclear stuff. A lot of stuff's been going on back and forth on social media. Both sides have been trying to get their, I guess their, their talking points out there. We don't really know where it's going to end up. We all thought it was going to happen. It's either yesterday or today. It doesn't seem like it's going to happen today either. It's going to take a few other, few extra days. There was some mention about, like, how the new supreme leaders, like the method, method of communication is like, takes a while because he's obviously not picking up a cell phone to avoid, you know, getting fucking catching a JDAM or whatever. So here we are speculating again. Everyone's spinning the neocons on the right or freaking out because, you know, they just want to blow things up at all times. And you know, it's just, I. My two cents is like the, what's happened in the straight in the Iran over the last two and a half months is a nightmare. We're the same situation and same like, basic, you know, aspects that we had about a deal or possible deal on February 27 and today are. It's a different reality. So I think people need to understand that before they like start popping off that we're living in a different world. Than two and a half months ago. So you boys mud wrestle over who wants to go first?

[Mark Polymoropoulos]

Go ahead, Andy.

[Andy Milburn]

Yeah, I mean, I, you know, obvious point up front is the gap between President Trump's framing of this and Iran's version. That's the story. That's, that's got headway here in the, in the Middle east and probably around the world. Right. So the headline is a deal is largely negotiated. Uh, but of course, the devil's in the details, right? And that the devil in this case is on is in what has each side actually agreed to so far? And as you pointed out, not a lot. All right, so, you know, they've, they've agreed to the, they, they've agreed to talk basically. Now Iran's made some substantive agreements upfront. We haven't seen movement on that to open the Straits of Hormuz. Right. Washington says Tehran has committed to surrendering its highly enriched uranium stockpile. Tehran says that it said nothing about the nuclear program at all and that all of that's going to be negotiated in the next 60 days. So there's certainly contradiction so far in the detail of what actually has been agreed. So 60 day framework, Iran opens the strait and clears mines. That's my understanding. They've agreed to that. The US lifts the naval blockade. Okay. That's a significant agreement and holds out $25 billion in frozen assets. Okay. We haven't said, the US hasn't said that's going to be released, but they say that's going to be part of the negotiation. But all the hard questions, you know, enrichment, sanctions, regional proxies, ballistic missiles, all of that has been deferred. So really, I mean, it's. Both sides have an incentive not to go back to war. That's clear. Neither side wants to go back to war. I think that is clear too, despite all the chest beating. And this MOU buys time, but it doesn't. Hasn't resolved the conflict.

[Mark Polymoropoulos]

Yeah, Andy, I think that's a good synopsis of what we know so far. And of course, everybody kind of is watching social media religiously on what gets released by kind of the dribs and drabs of the details. I think a way to also frame it is that it's not actually a deal, it's just, it's an extension of the ceasefire and you're kicking the can down the road to then talk about what could be in a deal. The one thing I think we should focus on, and I'll go over kind of something I just, I think I sent to you guys earlier, I think there's a lot of questions that have to be answered big picture. But the thing to focus on is that sanctions relief, the 25 billion, whether it's release of funds, however the Iranians get a hold of that, that's a really big deal because that's stuff that can't be taken back. You can't bomb that back. The Iranian economy is in a disastrous state. And one of the things that the US did have and really the allies, if you want to call it that, did have as leverage in terms of the deteriorating Iranian economy with the notion they can't pay their soldiers, unemployment's up, inflation, everything. 25 billion is a lifeline the regime. So I think that to me is one kind of aspect of this that really has to be looked at closely. The other thing d you mentioned it in the opening is the kind of the apocalyptic meltdown from kind of the pro war crowd on social media or on the Hill. I mean you have everybody from kind of the current crew from the kind of the pro Israel think tanks like Freedom of Defense and Democracies, then to Mike Pompeo, to Hugh Hewitt, Lindsey Graham, Lindsey Graham, Ted Cruz, and that goes to the, the kind of the GOP hawks in politics who are melting, really melting down. And I wonder if this is having an effect on Trump. He pushed back. I just saw now on true social with something his kind of really odd looking human communications director in this kind of really kind of wretched post back to Mike Pompeii, former CIA Director of Secretary of State, telling him to shut the fuck up. Yeah, yeah, yeah. You know, so, so this, this is going to have some kind of effect. So it's going to be interesting to see if as you know, Barack Ravid of Axios has just reported that a deal won't be signed today. There's still some outstanding items. Does, does Trump start backtracking after this opposition? I don't know the answer to that. But what I think we should do is kind of, and maybe it's a little early because we don't know the details but you know, you do have to ask kind of the big picture questions. You know, are we in the United States? You know, those of us who do care and I think everyone here is in that camp. The strategy is, might, might differ from the administration, but we do want to constrain the Iranians. The Iranians are an enemy of the United States. But are we better off right now after, after the war? You know, and you know you can go down the Road, you know, is the Iranian nuclear program been diminished, eliminated? Well, you know, I think that remains to be seen, but I think the pretty easy answer is no. The ballistic missile and drone inventory, has it been damaged? Sure. But is it gone? The answer is no. You know, is a regime in Iran that's going to be more amenable to future negotiations in place or is it more hard line? Looks like it's pretty hard line. And then kind of the biggest thing for me, and I'm still one of these kind of, you know, believers in the notion of America as the bright shining city on the hill, although we don't always act that way, is the idea of Trump promised the Iranians, remember back, I think in January that help was on its way. So are the Iranian people better off now? And I think the answer to that is an unequivocal no, especially if we give a lifeline to the regime. Remember, there was an idea, I actually subscribed to this. If we had done nothing and not started this war, there were protests on the street. The crackdown was terrible, but the Iranian economy was in such a place and the popularity of the regime was at an all time low. There could have been organically over the next year or two, a collapse of the regime. But have we by, you know, ironically enough, by starting this war and now giving the hardliners a lifeline, have we kind of now, are we in a position in which the regime is strengthened and will live longer? And that is not good for the Iranian people? And I think these are, you know, I'm trying to be as kind of nonpartisan as possible. These are questions that one should ask, you know, are we collectively and then the Iranian people better off at this point? And I'm not sure the answer is a good one.

[Andy Milburn]

Yeah, that's a good point. And if we had John Hackett on, he points out, and this is backed up across the more intellectual media outlets, the fact that the IRGC has isolated itself from the Iranian economy, if that makes sense. It is so. It has so many tentacles out and is, has frozen, has money and businesses and interests both overseas and within Iran that, that, that have proved to be resilient, in fact even bolstered by the war. So you've got this dichotomy. How do you like that? D. All right, between, you know, the fact Iran itself is suffering widespread layoffs, the people are suffering skyrocketing inflation, medicine, gasoline prices shooting up infrastructure. Infrastructure damage estimated about 300 billion. Remember, a lot of that is dual use of civilian infrastructure. You've got reports of ordinary Iranians stockpiling water and batteries, anticipating a new round of strikes. And it's hard to say whether that is bringing pressure to bear on the regime. To Mark's point, the regime seems to be bolstered and even more isolated from the effects on not just the economy, but kind of the popular opinion than it was before, which is not a good thing from anyone's point of view. You know, regardless, the $25 billion in unfrozen assets is almost, I mean, as far as the Iranian economy is concerned, an existential necessity. And so perhaps that is indeed, I mean, that's certainly a strong incentive for Iran to be at the negotiation table. But yeah, I would absolutely agree with Mark's summary. I mean, we are not noticeably, we United States, US Interests, certainly not. The global economy is in no better shape than it was before and the Iranian people are significantly worse off. I was interested from where I am in the Middle east, there is strong GCC support for the memorandum, but they want security assurances from the United States going ahead, especially from uae, which has borne the brunt of Iran's attack strip during the war. And you'll notice on, on social media shows clips from Iran state television of shooting missiles into a UAE flag. And it's kind of an implicit threat. Right. So UAE is the no shrinking violet, certainly, but they, they all the Gulf countries or certainly benefit from a peace proposal. The fact that the straits are closed are hitting them very strongly. All of them. Whatever you may read about gas lines bypassing across the board, it's not just oil, it's helium, it's lng and they're feeling the bite economically. They want Trump to agree to this MoU, I would say the only sticking point probably Israel and a sticking point that I don't know if it could derail peace talks going ahead. Aside from all the other things that we talked about, details not being sorted out, but what is happening in Lebanon? You know, Lebanon hasn't been brought into the terms of the ceasefire, but potentially Iran, who knows, Iran may, may take a. May, may try and bring a Lebanon in and it's unlikely that the Israelis are going to agree to cease shellacking Hezbollah as terms of this ceasefire. We'll see.

[Mark Polymoropoulos]

My, my understanding is that Lebanon was

[Sean]

brought in at least second tier, like, at least it was second tier in terms of like what they wanted.

[Mark Polymoropoulos]

That's why the Israelis are upset about this because that's kind of a no go for them.

[Andy Milburn]

Yeah, well, that's, that's a That's a buzzer development.

[Sean]

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[Mark Polymoropoulos]

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[Mark Polymoropoulos]

Come join our sweat sesh on TikTok. And so you know, but I think that, well, there's a couple things, Andy, I want to ask you. One is I agree that the GCC countries wanted this to end. We can talk about Israeli politics and how this affects the upcoming Israeli elections, because I think it will. But I think you raised something about security guarantees and I think there is and you're there in the region, although you never tell us exactly where you are. It's very mysterious. But you're there in the region. And so I think that everything I've read, and correct me if I'm wrong, that there is going to be a reassessment country by country on what to do about with the Iranians, for example, it looks like the Saudis are more interested in some type of, or the Omanis as well, some type of kind of, I don't know, non aggression pact with Iran, but the uae, of course, who has gotten totally in bed with the Israelis. And you can, you know, you can say that that might have been smart or not, but they probably feel differently. And so I think each country, I mean the uae, when, you know, when you pull out of, out of opec, I think each country is going to kind of reassess where they are in terms of how to counter the Iranian threat. And you know, you have countries like Oman and others that might cozy up to Iran again, the UAE won't, Saudis may, there's the Saudi Pakistani kind of cooperation agreement where you have the Pakistani military there. Just so it's, you know, is this, you know, I guess the question for you is, you know, do we need to have a discussion on kind of the fundamental rearrangement of some security relationships? And many of these, I think the United States does not come out on top. I think countries may choose to go at it alone because we did start this war. And while they wanted us to end this now because of the Strait of Hormuz, obviously and the damage to the economies, I also think they probably have the notion that we did not finish it. And so you know, you might have talked about this before, Andy, in a previous podcast. You know, you poke a bear or you kick a bear in the nuts. Did you say this? Or maybe someone else did you kick a bear in the nuts? You better finish that bear off. Going to be angry. And so do you think there's discussions going on in the halls of various foreign ministries and national security councils in the GCC countries on, okay, what do we do next?

[Andy Milburn]

Yeah, undoubtedly. I mean, it's hard to tell exactly what's happening from social media, but I can say certainly that the US has lost credibility in the region and that may be an understatement. And in the media was the fact that the Arab leaders called Trump on Saturday to express support for the mou. I mean, that's undoubtedly true, but at the same time, I don't think there's a good deal of confidence that they will be protected from the consequences of whatever happens. Yet you mentioned UAE leaving, OPEC discussions about UAE leaving the Arab League. And so you're seeing a kind of a breakdown of cohesion too. That is not good news for US Interests. Discussions perhaps of bilateral agreements, as you pointed out, that don't involve the United States. So for now, Gulf states are backing diplomacy, but they're going to be watching closely and they certainly are going to be maneuvering to, to get security assurances or ensure that security assurances are embedded in any final agreement coming from Iran, not just from the United States.

[Sean]

Now what happens if it comes out and they're, you know, the memorandum of understanding for the 60 day extension has some language in there where the Strait of Hormuz is open, but it's under the, because they've been talk guides of like, you know, Iran and the surrounding countries essentially taking a toll and splitting it between themselves. I mean, how is that? Have you guys heard anything about the GCC countries being okay with that? Because I know they just want us to open up the straits so they can start getting some money.

[Andy Milburn]

But I think it's so first of all, from the US perspective, it's surprising because I think on this show we've talked about the fact that the US Will never agree to tuls. And in fact, the president himself has said that. But I think we're seeing a weakening of that. And there's news here I was reading today that the tools may be portrayed, all right, because perception's a big deal in the Middle east, but they may be presented as being an environmental thing. Right. This is an environmental toll for cleanup that we're Paying a fee.

[Mark Polymoropoulos]

I think they're using fees. Right, Exactly.

[Andy Milburn]

Yeah. And, and there's talk about, you know, obviously Oman as well as Iran being recipients, which would of course be good for Oman. So I think, I think there's going to be some negotiation room for negotiation on that. To answer your point, D. I don't think the Gulf countries would be against that as long as these. It depends on what the tolls are, how prohibitive they are. If they, if they're prohibitively high and they slow down commercial traffic and they change the economic calculus of exporting oil via the straits, then that's going to be absolutely a no go. But the offer by Iran to open the straits, to clear mines that it's already deployed and mine clearings, technically, as you know, complex, time consuming, can't happen overnight. But, but it does mean that any reopening is going to be gradual. There's not going to be instantaneous. I mean, obviously we'll see the stock market shoot up because the stock market's being kind of separated from reality. Right? Yeah. But you know, we're not going to see instant relief of pressure on the global economy. Reopening is going to be gradual and there's a real risk of accidents. In the end, insurance rates aren't going to come down right away either. So there's a practical military tripwire embedded in the diplomatic process of miscalculation of mind strike. Some errant Ihr not rogue. But, but we've seen how decentralized the IRGC has become. But isolated incidents. The Iranians still have hundreds. You know, I've seen estimates of 400 fast attack boats still out there. So you know, there's certainly, there's certainly room. The risk is still there and that's going to mean that insurance rates are going to remain high and so the effect on the global economy is still going to be severe regardless of outcome.

[Mark Polymoropoulos]

One of the things that's really interesting is this notion of what to do about the highly enriched uranium. Apparently the Iranians, and this is rather incredible if you think about this, that the US Would accept this. Trump keeps claiming in public. I think the New York Times reported that the Iranians have given a verbal commitment to allow to leave the country. A verbal commitment. I mean that to me is rather extraordinary. That's what we're going to go on. The Iranians who are master negotiators, there's the old adage, they've never won a war, they never lost in negotiation. They probably have. Well, they don't drink necessarily but they're popping champagne corks. The idea that the US Would actually be okay with this, just a verbal agreement from the Iranians to me, is quite amazing. And it shows perhaps the desperation the Trump administration wants that they want an agreement. I think one of the things that's really interesting again as I'm sitting here right outside Washington D.C. is how politically disastrous is this going to be for the President? Because at the end I don't like the idea and I don't subscribe to the idea that the US Lost this war. That's such a strange, simplistic thing. The US Military put a beating on the Iranians. And so to say that that's kind of a weird, just kind of one liner that. And of course all conflict ends, it's very murky. Even when the US can do really well in something, there's always trade offs, it's always kind of messy. But the idea that the US Lost this war, that doesn't make all that much sense. But they certainly didn't win. And so how Trump and kind of his acolytes deal with this is going to be quite interesting. And you know, at a time where, you know, is his approval ratings are an all time low, the economy is a mess, and, and you have so many Republicans on record having kind of supported the maximalist demands. You know, it's going to be interesting to see all these people d that we just talked about who were kind of over the last 24 hours hammering the administration for this. Are they actually going to come around or not? You know, Bill Kristol, who, you know, head of Bulwark, former, you know, former neocon, became a very strong Trump critic, I think said something right. He said, you know, it's going to happen. Wait to see the next couple of days. You're going to see all these people hammering Trump. His allies are going to come around and they'll try to somehow get behind this, this, this agreement. But politically, how this, you know, that's going to be the dominant theme in D.C. over the next couple of days is how this is played just because, you know, our maximalist demands, you know, were not met. Now sometimes they never are, but it looks like it's not even close again. And I'm not sure it's helpful for the Democrats to say, to start screaming, the US Lost this war. I mean, that's just not true. But we didn't win and it became just a giant economic disaster and perhaps a strategic mess too. So it'll be politically, it's going to Be very interesting to see in the next couple days.

[Sean]

Yeah. I mean, strategically we haven't accomplished any of our goals at all. I feel like we've taken step back steps back from that. So you could technically, you know, arguably say that we did lose this. I mean, especially for people that are like not paying attention to this day to day and like hour to hour, like maniacs like us do, it does not look good. And another like just a dovetail, like back to your point about like the neocons. Yeah. That would mean they need to show courage and they don't do that ever. They're gonna fall back in line like good little boys and girls, like they're supposed to do. It's. I mean, that's the easy. I wish they could bet that on Polymarket. I'd make a fucking boatload.

[Andy Milburn]

The, you know, the, the who won the wall thing, probably too early to be resolved, but it's certainly true that, I mean, it's free that we didn't display a good understanding of Clausewitz.

[Mark Polymoropoulos]

Right.

[Andy Milburn]

You know, we attrited the Iranians, but the war turned on a different pivot. The war ended up being about economic pressure, leverage, Straits of Hormuz. And to a certain extent it ended up about being global perception and America's standing and credibility. And it would be hard to argue that we were successful in those two areas. Again, we'll see how the negotiations work out. But there is a good argument to say that although we attrited Iran's military, military capability, we didn't destroy it. That we misunderstood the political context of the war and in that sense did not achieve success. And we've got a problem. I mean, not a problem. Well, yeah, it is a problem. I mean, our investment right now as far as military is just massive right now. And that's an open question what we're going to do. We have to retain them there for a while and that's a significant cost. We've got free aircraft carriers now in the Middle East. That's the first time that's happened in Right. Since the beginning of the Iraq war 23 years ago. 12 accompanying ships and those in those carrier groups, that's like three aircraft carriers. That's like 200 aircraft alone assigned to the carriers. Then 15,000 additional personnel just with the carrier groups. I mean, it's massive naval force and it's 41% of all US Navy ships. I don't know who worked out the 1% on that, but so 41% of the entire US Navy right now deployed worldwide. In this one region, it's a great time to invade Taiwan, isn't it? I don't think that we can sustain this posture indefinitely without cost to other commitments. And I mentioned Taiwan. I mean Pacific. I know we don't care about NATO, but NATO's eastern flank. But the deal gives, gives Trump a face saving way to begin drawing down without appearing to retreat. All right, Yeah. I mean, so although the US Economy has been relatively isolated compared to the economies of the rest of the world, that won't last for long. And we talked here about the second order effects of fertilizer, of shortage of helium. It isn't all about oil. So that also is pressure down the road that's already gathering momentum. So it's light or heart. B.F. lytle Hart, who was a British strategist, was a former British army officer. He famously said the object of war, as in the purpose of war, is to attain a better peace. Right. For, for those involved, for those who, who initiate the war go to war. It's hard to argue that right now we're in a better peace. Right, than we were before the war.

[Mark Polymoropoulos]

And that's the thing that's going to have to be kind of resolved when we see the MOU and what kind of transpires. But Andy, you bring up a really interesting point because the world doesn't stop. We have the issue in the Pacific in terms of China. Trump went for his summit with Xi in Beijing. I think it achieved nothing. But at least before this current national security strategy kind of China was the long term pacing threat. And the biggest concern we had in US national security strategy was the Pacific, a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan. And if you take a look at the ordinance expended in our military, I'm not sure we're even remotely capable of doing anything now with an administration that I think, I'm not sure we'd even react. And our allies in the Pacific know this. But let's, let's switch to the, actually the next near term conflict, which is Cuba. We do have a carrier within the vicinity of Cuba now. And it's clear that to me at least that Trump has been laying hints all this about this nonstop. Marco Rubio has as well. There's the idea that Trump wanted to take care of three issues in his second term, politics be damned. And that was Venezuela, Iran and Cuba. I think the outcome in Venezuela is at very, very best mixed. Iran probably even less so. But now we're going to kind of see what happens with, with Cuba. And I do think you're going to see, you know, if there's this 60 day cease fire, everyone's going to shift south to the Western hemisphere and see what's happening. You have obviously Marco Rubio talking about this all the time, but the visit of CIA Director Ratcliffe to Havana, again, carriers on station there. And I guess one of the questions that we have to kind of ponder is, you know, let's obviously we have a very strong economic squeeze on Cuba and in fact over the last several. But about a week ago we put on essentially secondary sanctions, which is a huge thing because in the past Americans couldn't do business there, but now nobody can. And so, you know, what comes next there I think is kind of the biggest question. And I guess one of the things we'd have to kind of contemplate is, or if you all can think about it too, is are the American, you know, again, economic squeeze of Cuba. Got it. Probably the right policy. I'm both for this, in fact, military moves against Cuba. You know, are we really going to do this again? What does that even entail? Are we going to actually send in, you know, special operations forces to snatch a 90 year old or 94 year old? I don't know. Raul Castro is 94. I mean, and you know, do the American people have appetite for another military adventure? You know, even though Trump wanted that kind of hat trick of Venezuela, Iran and Cuba, Cuba via military means. To me you almost kind of scratch your head and saying at this point when we talked about, you know, no more never ending wars, Trump's campaign pledge, are we really going to do this again? And with the, you know, look, there's not going to be the same kind of economic effects at all. But you know, at some point, I mean this is, this is getting pretty wild when you think about if we actually employ the US Military again for a third conflict over the last several months. What are your guys thoughts?

[Andy Milburn]

Yeah, I mean if I was involved in the discussion, I would ask to what end? What do we gain? Right. I mean, in Venezuela, as was very loudly publicized, there was the prospect of harnessing some of the profits from oil, right. But in Cuba's case, very, very difficult to discern any substantial benefit that we would get from going to war.

[Sean]

I mean, even squeezing them economically like we're doing. I mean it's affecting the poorest of the poor. They have no power for like 20 day, 20 hours out of the 24 hour day. But like, you know, there was a gaggle of like left lean, left wing twitch streamers and Influencers that went over to Cuba like a month ago, they were able, you know, they're spreading the good word of the Cuban government, right? Like they're, they were able to stay in a super nice hotel with power and Internet and be able to stream. But the reality is on the ground that like, most of the people that are in Cuba are fucking poor. They can squeeze like, you know, the regime's not so much suffering as, as compared to like the actual person that lives in Cuba, like actual citizens. So it's like the economic squeeze. Unless you could really like pinpoint and, and strategically hit the regime without affecting the people on the, like the actual citizens of Cuba. I don't know if I'm with that either because like, they're getting, they're getting. Fuck. It's like a blockade essentially on Cuba. And I'm sure Raul Castro still smoking his cigars, having his caviar, whatever the fuck, and regular people again, screwed per usual.

[Mark Polymoropoulos]

When I talked to kind of my, I have a. Interesting, you know, contacts and friends set with some of the Cuban exiles down in Miami. And so, you know, there that is the big question is, you know, would this economic pressure be enough to have the regime fall apart? And there's some dispute on that, or does there have to be more of a push from kind of the, from the US Military? But, you know, the look there is, you know, Cuba is a national security threat to the United States, not imminent, but there are listening posts there. There's, you know, signals intelligence collection from the Chinese and the Russians. Of course, it's a thorn in our side. I mean, is it, is it, you know, is it a top five issue for US national security players? Of course not. Do we want to have kind of some type of regime change there? Yes. And that's, and look, if you look at the US demands, I mean, Marco Rubio's kind of three demands which make total sense are release political prisoners, ensure that there's no more political or religious repression there, and then open up the area to private investment. And so the idea is, will the Cuban government ever agree to some of this? I think it would be in everybody's interest if they did so without military intervention. But, you know, it'll, you know, and I think the constituency on this, you know, for Trump is South Florida. Now, I thought kind of the Republican Party has Florida locked up anyhow, so even politically, it doesn't make all that much sense, but it's going to be, I guess, just, you know, in this discussion that we're having now would be the same discussion that the American people should have, you know, if there ever were to be military intervention, say, you know, okay, why are we doing this? Keep the economic blockade on. Got it. But US Military forces there, you know, and then. And then we get into the kind of the problem. And you see this, of course, with some of the press reporting that there was clearly leaks from the administration about, you know, U.S. intelligence assessments that said, you know, Cuba could unleash drone swarms against Key west, which, you know, you know, and then, you know, this. This seems to be to start. Starting to justify, you know, some type of US military move. And so I think. But, you know, everyone kind of rolled their eyes at that. But putting this all aside, let's be very clear, they are laser focused on this. Everybody I talk to with contacts within the U.S. administration say Cuba's next and soon. I think Jack has said that too, when we've talked to him. Jack has just been down at whatever soft week down in Tampa. And so Cuba is on everybody's mind. And I think Trump got bored with Iran and he wants to do this thing next. And so we can disagree with it all we want, but I think we're gonna be talking about this next week and the week after. And the big question is if we see kind of Andy's old colleagues somehow arriving on ospreys in Havana, we do have to kind of sit back and say, what are we doing? How in the world has this happened? And, of course, did the American people actually vote for this? And clearly, I think the answer on that is no.

[Sean]

And, yeah, I'm with you. When you mentioned about South Florida and the Cuban diaspora there, how it affects. Florida's not a swing state anymore at all. Right. Like, so I understand that they're, like, very powerful and they swing. They, you know, they spend a lot of money in politics, especially local. But, yeah, this will not even be a blip on the radar of, like, campaign, whether it's the midterms or the primaries coming up in 2027 into 2028,

[Mark Polymoropoulos]

you know, if they. If we look at. Let's just play devil, devil's advocate. If we pull this off, if there was some kind of successful intervention, economic or military, Rubio is the nominee.

[Sean]

I'll bet money with you right now, 100%. How much? Today's the day, even if they take over Cuba and they wheel old Raul Castro in a fucking wheelchair down over here in Brooklyn to roommate with Maduro, it's 5:20, May 24, 2026, I'll bet you $100 that it will not be

[Mark Polymoropoulos]

Rubio if it's a success. I bet it will be.

[Sean]

I'll just, I'll generally, I'll say success, failure. It will not be Rubio in 2020.

[Mark Polymoropoulos]

He's already actually in, in a very good position because Vance has been, you know, pretty much minimized in so many ways. I mean, it's clear that, that Trump is favoring Rubio a bit now. I don't know who he's going to endorse, but anyway.

[Sean]

So I think if we're getting into. I think Vance is actually being pretty strategic by, by removing himself from the Iran debacle and the likely soon to be Cuban debacle. I think he's doing the right thing politically and I disagree with everything he says or believes.

[Mark Polymoropoulos]

Dude.

[Sean]

Yeah, but he, honestly, he gets on the mic and he's pretty good, man. Like, and that's, that's what this is now. Politics is vibe based.

[Mark Polymoropoulos]

I would, I would, I would disagree with you on that. 100 bucks.

[Sean]

I want that Hyundai. Get it crisp ready for me.

[Mark Polymoropoulos]

All right.

[Andy Milburn]

That's everything that Vance campaigned on has, has, has evaporated. Right. Do you remember, you know, one of his leading points was no more wars.

[Sean]

Yeah.

[Andy Milburn]

No more than the Middle East. Right. I mean, and, and yes, he's been a front runner in negotiations or maybe not a front runner, but he was involved in negotiations. I notice no longer. But he doesn't seem to be. He seems to be ignored. Right. But who knows? I mean, d. I understand what you're saying too, about track record means nothing. Back to Cuba, you know, I mean, the US Is already essentially at war with Cuba economically. I think probably that pressure, that war is working faster than any military option would, I think, I don't know. Of course, I don't know. But when Trump says, hey, we may stop by Cuba after finishing Iran, I don't think he means imminent military action. I think this is all a pressure campaign within it. And that's kind of a placeholder for escalation to see the kind of maritime interdiction potentially that we saw in Venezuela. But I would be astounded if there

[Mark Polymoropoulos]

were military said the other day that, you know, southcom has been tasked to come up with some and people kind of got in a kind of a little bit nervous about that. But that's normal. I mean, there's nothing to that. That's what you do contingent. That didn't mean anything.

[Sean]

So, like, what would it like? Let's speculate a little bit. Is it going to look like what Iran looked like, or is it going to look like what Venezuela looked like? Like a JSOC raid to go snatch the octogenarian from his fucking palace.

[Mark Polymoropoulos]

Gotta be the forum. It's gotta be that. I mean, good Lord.

[Sean]

Rather than, like, airstrikes and.

[Mark Polymoropoulos]

And, you know, and I would say the Cuban military and I. This is. This is dusting off stuff that I probably shouldn't even talk about or know all that much about, but I don't think they're. You know, this is. This is a decrepit old military. I don't think there's. There's gonna be any kind of military match for the United States. And so. Yeah, but we'll see. But I'm telling you, read the U.S. the tea leaves here. I'm in the Washington area. Everyone's talking Cuba now, nonstop. Now. What that means, who knows? And so we'll see. But the other point, too, and I think there's enough open source in which we will see, there's the whole idea of signal versus noise. There's a lot of noise now, but the signals would be when you start seeing certain soft units deploy. I mean, the crazy thing about Andy, your old world, is that there's nothing secret anymore. Every time there's some movement from, you know, from Virginia beach or Fort Bragg or from, you know, or, you know, air elements anywhere in the AFSOC world, I mean, people like, within 55 seconds put it out on Twitter, and they've been right. Every single time. You know, the Venezuela stuff, when we saw SAF going down there, you're like, all right. And then Iran, too. And once they move, that's a pretty. Pretty compelling sign that something's there. So I think when you kind of. If you could do the signal versus noise right now, there's a lot of noise. Although I would say signal is also. There is a carrier there. That's a data point. But at the end of the day, I mean, I think we all should kind of take a moment and sit back and say exactly what you said. If we actually launch a military operation against Cuba, you do kind of sit back and scratch your head and said, how in the world is this president who ran on it, I mean, literally, his campaign thing with Kamala Harris is she's gonna get us in a war with Iran, and he will have had three wars, one of which was with Iran. That's just extraordinary.

[Sean]

Yeah, don't. Don't forget Greenland, because that's on our fucking bucket list too, dude. Also a little Bit of like the rumor mill. Rumor mill. Ish. Like soft week was happening last week In Tampa, the 1 60th. Supposed to do a demonstration there and they pulled out last minute because I had to be somewhere. So I don't know what that means, but take that as you'd like.

[Mark Polymoropoulos]

Right. Again, that's. That's kind of the signal thing you got to kind of think about now. You know, who knows? Could all the BE stuff could be stuff that we don't know about that's happening in the world. Hey, last week about the, the Tulsi Gabbard resigning.

[Sean]

I can't remember. No, we didn't. That happened. Yeah. So that was. Yeah, very sad. I wanted to touch on Ukraine too, because Keith got smoked last night by Russia. But.

[Andy Milburn]

Yeah.

[Sean]

Let's talk Tulsi real quick.

[Mark Polymoropoulos]

Very quickly on Tulsi. There's not much more to say other than someone who doesn't have the President's ear cannot be the DNI, period. Intel Chief 101, kind of in Washington, D.C. is that whether you're the head of CIA or particularly dni, you have to have access. You have to be able to go see the President, call the President, basically have direct access at any time. And she had none of that. And the writing was on the wall for a lot of things. Of course, she was in opposition to the Iran war. That's the worst kept secret. But that she was not involved in any of the planning, wasn't in the Oval Office Sessions, wasn't in the Sit Room, and then tried to just save her job by running around doing this kind of crazy conspiracy stuff.

[Sean]

So also being on the raid in Georgia with the FBI, which why the ODNI would be there, I have no fucking idea.

[Mark Polymoropoulos]

Well, that was just designed to curry favor, but. So she's out. No surprise. You know, her deputy, Aaron Lucas, former CIA case officer, but not a heavyweight in the policy, you know, national security circles here. And kind of the big picture, which I've been kind of talking about a lot in media in the last couple days, is that, you know, Tom Cotton, who is a very influential Senator, the head of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, wants to abolish odni, period, End of story. And so I think that's what the discussion is going to shift to. What in the world does the DNI do anyhow? And ultimately CIA Director Ratcliffe has won out. I mean, he has an office in the White House, he golfs with the President. So whoever is going to take over that job is not going to have that same kind of juice. And there's the question of even in the kind of the post 911 reforms, you needed some kind of coordinating function. Can something else do that rather than an office with 1,000 people in it, all of who have been seconded from the other agencies? So there was so much redundancy. Final point on this is in that as a field officer for the agency and even when I was at headquarters as a manager, I never had contact with ODNI or the DNI for anything really. Nothing, zero. Had no bearing on my life. When you're in the field and the DNI comes out, you scratch your head and say, oh shit, we got to trot them over to the liaison chief in whatever country we're in. But I don't even know what they do. You know, CIA is still the top dog when it comes to kind of the overseas presence. And so what was most interesting just about Tulsi's departure is number one, what a strange person she is belonging to this kind of odd cult in Hawaii that eat toenails. No kidding. And number two, that she was so viscerally opposed to basically every policy choice the administration made, so it almost took too long. And obviously her husband's sick with cancer and so you wish them well.

[Sean]

Yeah, yeah, I was rooting for it, really. I hope she, you know, I wish she did, like stayed the whole four years. All right. Ukraine, Russia we've seen over the last couple weeks probably maybe more than that. Like Ukraine's reaching to Russia has been deeper and deeper. Russia is there at least. The air defenses seems to be dwindling more and more. They have to move it around. You saw it with the victory day parade and stuff like that. And you are seeing just overall more and more drone attacks inside of Russia, deep inside like 1500 kilometers and stuff like that. So like the momentum kind of perception has been shifting over the last, like almost three weeks. And yesterday Russia launched a massive attack on Kiev. Obviously hit fucking civilian targets and stuff like that, because they don't give a fuck and they're evil. So let's just have a little bit of a talk about that. Andy, you go for it. Let me hear you.

[Andy Milburn]

Yeah, so, yeah, last night it was the. The Ukrainians sank 690 assets, right? Drones and missiles targeted Kiev alone and the, you know, Kyiv, although every, every district was. Was hit. I think it's a sign of how good the interception rate is and how, you know, I have some personal experience with this, obviously, but how efficient their civil defense procedures are. You Know, just getting civilians into shelters, that only two people were killed. You know, unfortunate for those who know those two people. But you think about the scale of the attack, I mean, it's just hard to imagine, you know, I mean, I'm trying to think of so here. So where I am in the Middle East, I mean, this country was hit by a few missiles and drones. And the scale of, I won't say panic, but fear among expats here was pretty high. And yet, you know, it was nothing compared to what Kiev goes through night after night after night, you know, and, and so two killed, 70. I mean, there was 77 injured. But, but when you. When you think of that, that many missiles and drones. And, and I want to add to how the Russians have improved the technology on the Shahed drones since the initial strikes. And, and a key point was during the strikes, they used a hypersonic weapon called the Arsenik. In fact, they used at least two Kimzal missiles and three or four Zircon hypersonic missiles. But the headline was the Areeshnik. And Putin has talked about this, saying it travels like a meteorite and cannot be stopped. And there's some truth in that. It cannot be stopped. And so the Russians hit. They didn't hit Kiev. They hit a town to the south of Kiev with the arsenic. And I don't know whether that's because they were concerned it would be intercepted, or it might just be a demonstration of the fact that they could do it, but that is using hypersonic weapons. We talk about defending against hypersonic weapons, right? I mean, the Ukrainian air defense systems are so far ahead, even though I'm not talking about the technology, I'm talking about just how they operate them. We need to be learning from them. So anyway, an extraordinary event. The Ukrainian. It was catastrophic as far as in terms of property damage, but thank God, you know, more civilians weren't killed. So why do the Russians do that, aside from the fact that they're all shitheads? So Putin, the Russians are under. They're under a lot of pressure right now. They've stalled in Donbas. They're taking, as we've talked about here, no exaggeration, this is according to Rusi, which is a British think tank. They're taking 30 to 33,000 casualties a month, 1000 a day. Actually, it's 1000 a day. On a good day, it's between 1000 and 1200 casualties a day. And the Ukrainians have been shellacking their oil infrastructure, as you point out, very far away from. I mean, far into the Russian hinterland. And then a few days ago, they hit a drone unit, one of Russia's prominent drone units in Ukraine. They hit it in Luhansk and they struck their headquarters, by all accounts, wiped out the entire unit. It was a very successful strike. Putin lost his shit over that. He claimed that they'd hit a school and that 18 children were dead. But of course, Putin wouldn't have lost his shit over that. And so that's why he's saying they launched this strike from kind of a strategic level. There's really four things Russia's communicating, if you can call it communicating. One is to Ukraine. It's consistent message that it doesn't matter what's happening at the front. There's no city, there's no infrastructure, there's no part of your territory that's safe, not even the capital. And then to the west, I think this display of the arsenic was saying, hey, it can't be intercepted. That might be why they didn't try and hit Kiev, because if it had been intercepted, then that wouldn't have looked good. So, you know, they, they're trying to say, we've got this. Putin's all about threats of escalation. And the Arushnik, of course, can be armed with a nuclear warhead, blah, blah, blah. But even without a nuclear warhead, there are doubts whether any air defense system in the world can intercept it. And there's definitely a concern and, and probably an implicit message to Washington, although we don't seem to be listening to Russia, that Ukraine's not settled. You know, you go ahead and be consumed with Iran, but Ukraine's. We're still at war with Ukraine. Any US pressure on Russia for a peace deal comes while Russia is demonstrating its, its own escalation dominance. Right. And then of course, the European leaders, Von der Leyden, Macron, Callas and Carney, who are all nemeses, right? I know Carney's not a European leader, but he's, I mean, he's pro NATO. They've all condemned the attack. Obviously. The US hasn't really said any, hasn't said anything about it, but the EU has promised more air defense support to Ukraine. So this could be something that's backfiring on Russia. We'll see. And then finally, Zelensky, I mean, Ukrainian intelligence, I'm sure Mark will agree, is to say it's world class is an understatement. But Zelenskyy warned of exactly the strike less than 24 hours before it happened. And I think that might be why they had so few casualties. The civilian population was pre warned. That wasn't because the Russians warned them. It was because their intelligence picked it up. And so that the warning was accurate, the attack happened anyway. Tells you something important. Russia calculated that forewarning, that even with forewarning, that they could impose costs on Ukraine. Though, as we've seen, probably the costs weren't as high as they expected them to be.

[Mark Polymoropoulos]

Andy, one of the things that was most interesting about this, it's tragic, if you care about US Foreign policy, is the lack of US Response. This was a terrible war crime. It should have had absolute condemnation from the US Side. But at this point, I think a lot of us have given up. And the one thing that it is to me actually perhaps a positive, that Trump doesn't care anymore. And Rubio actually came out the other day, Secretary of State, saying, hey, we're not even going to try. Neither side is interested in a peace deal. Good. The best thing that could happen to Ukraine and Europe is for the US to stay out of this, because when we were staying in it under the Trump administration, it was a debacle. So. And, you know, there was a couple commentators who thought, you know, Trump's going to get bored of this. It's not. It's too hard. You have kind of these, you know, the dynamic duo of Kushner and Wyckoff as envoys, Wyckoff in particular, who are disasters, but the farther they stay away from this. And then, of course, the Ukrainians in all of their capabilities, improved really dramatically. And so to me, this was, this was a, you know, it was, it was embarrassing that the US didn't say anything. The Europeans did. Let's see what kind of concrete actions happen. And at the end of the day, you know, it's. The less, frankly, the US Is involved in putting any pressure on Ukraine, which is where the pressure would come, the better the idea that somehow we would come down hard on Russia for this. I mean, that's just, you know, we would have in the past, but not under this administration. And so what I think you mentioned before, those, those casualty numbers certainly are something else. Oh, final piece. You're 100% right in terms of Ukrainian intelligence. And I will say that the one area in which the US Is still contributing, and it's this, one of these strange mysteries of Washington is that my old outfit is still heavily involved, and it's most heavily involved in, not the paramilitary side of the House, more so than helping on targeting, but on that provision of intelligence. So I wouldn't be surprised if it was the combination of US and Ukrainian collection that was allowed for proper forewarning. And we've seen this before as well. I mean, Andy, you spent a lot of time there, but I also do kind of recall. And you were there firsthand. You know, the warnings you get were, you know, were in advance. And that's because the intelligence net that was set up. But ultimately, let's see how kind of Europe comes through. Air defense is a critical need, but some of the other stuff's not anymore. I mean, all the things that we were kind of howling about, whether it was atacms or Tomahawks, all that stuff. I mean, Ukrainians are doing pretty damn well with their domestic indigenous capability on drones. You would be a much better person to address this, but you could probably spend an hour talking about how it's the finest fighting force in Europe right now. Maybe that's exaggerated, but maybe not. And so, but, but boy, if you're, you know, someone like myself who was involved in the US national security world, the idea that the US is silent after what happened is just embarrassing.

[Andy Milburn]

Agreed on All.

[Sean]

All right, boys.

[Andy Milburn]

Nicely concluded. Well done.

[Sean]

Thank you. I know. That was beautiful. Beautiful little bow on it. I want everyone.

[Mark Polymoropoulos]

You're here. I've had this death flu, you know, Andy's from millions of miles away. And our other colleagues are off gallivanting around.

[Sean]

Yeah, they're on flights.

[Mark Polymoropoulos]

Noted. Who showed up?

[Sean]

Yeah, exactly. Everybody, do us a favor if you want to check out any of the guys stuff. Andy's book, Mark's book, Mark's Twitter, Andy's Twitter, whatever. And he's got a new article out on war on the rocks. I'll put that link in the description as well.

[Mark Polymoropoulos]

Dive into that. I saw some, some controversy on social

[Sean]

media and he was just trying to make people mad.

[Mark Polymoropoulos]

You know, jump into that.

[Sean]

Just getting people upset.

[Andy Milburn]

Hey, I'll tell you, this is an. This, it's an operational argument. I stay clear of morals. I stick. I'm just saying operationally, it was this, this is why the plan was so flawed. The campaign in Gaza was such a mess.

[Mark Polymoropoulos]

I promise.

[Andy Milburn]

Made no sense.

[Mark Polymoropoulos]

I'm going to jump in and read it and I got a comment on it. I did see some. Someone and it doesn't even matter who. Said, like, who is this Andy person? Is he qualified to comment on this? I like that one. Yeah.

[Andy Milburn]

Okay. Yeah, yeah.

[Mark Polymoropoulos]

I'm getting a lot of people who came to your defense. I'm like, I think he's. He probably has a thing he's got some.

[Sean]

A couple experiences. Urban warfare. Yeah.

[Mark Polymoropoulos]

You know, you could criticize what you said. You don't want to go down that road. Yeah, yeah.

[Sean]

So check out that article. That link is going to be in the description. It's for War on the rocks. Follow the guys. And of course if you want to help support the show, you can go to patreon.com teamhouse you get episodes ad free and early of both eyes on and the team house. We have a really cool one coming out today with a World War II veteran, first time ever, which is exciting. And yeah, guys, happy Memorial Day and we'll see you next time. Thank you guys.

[Mark Polymoropoulos]

Thanks everyone.

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