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Tactical Success, Strategic Failure - Week 4 of the Iran War | EYES ON GEOPOLITICS
01:12:20
A deep dive into the escalating conflict with Iran, breaking down the military actions, economic fallout, and the growing risk of a wider regional war. The panel examines whether the U.S. has a coherent strategy—or if tactical success is masking a...
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- [00:01]
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- [00:29]
Howie Mandel
u n D the Global Gaming League is present. Atlas Earth, the fun cashback app. Hey, it's Howie Mandel and I am inviting you to witness history as me and my How We do it gaming team take on Gilly the King and wallow. Two six seven million dollars gaming in an epic global gaming league video game showdown. Plus a halftime performance by multi platinum artist Travy McCoy. Watch all the action and see who wins and advances to the championship match right now@globalgamingleague.com that's globalgamingleague.com in partnership with Level Up Expo.
- [01:01]
Podcast Host (The Teamhouse)
Hey, what's up guys? This is D. Do us a favor and check out our patreon page. It's patreon.com the teamhouse. You get both Teamhouse episodes and Eyes on Geopolitics episodes completely ad free. You get them early too. You can ask us questions. You can also watch the team ass episodes live as we shoot them. So. And you help support the show and support what we're doing here. It's patreon.com theteamhouse those links are in the description or if you're listening, it's in the show notes down below so you can click it real quick and easy and it helps us keep the lights on. So we appreciate it and we appreciate you guys listening. Thanks a bunch. Hey everybody. Welcome to another episode of Eyes on Geopolitics. I'm joined with a full crew today. Mick Mulroy, Andy Milburgh, Jonathan Hackett, Mark Polymoropoulos and myself. A lot happening as usual. I'm sure everybody who's listening to this has been, you know, monitoring the situation as well. Most recent news, obviously. Well, the first thing, I think it happened on Friday about the releasing or unsanctioning 140 million barrels of Iranian oil that usually goes to China and other Asian countries. You know, that's gonna be like a windfall of probably more than 14 billion even if you just, you know, I'm assuming because it'll probably be sold for a little bit more. And yesterday President Trump issued a 48 hour deadline for Iran to stop blocking the straight of Hormuz or they or we will start targeting, you know, I'm assuming mostly oil infrastructure. So a lot happening makes no sense. So I'm gonna let the experts talk about it and explain to me what the it exactly is going on. Make you go first.
- [02:49]
Mick Mulroy
So to start with, I mean as I explained last time, I support the military objectives of this. I think Iran is a hugely destabilizing force that brought a lot of this on itself. And I'm always about America winning regardless of who you know, obviously the politics of it which unfortunately seems to not be the case with many people I know. But I would say this is transitioning from a conventional air war of which we're doing well with ballistic missiles, suicide drones, the industrial base that manufactures both of those, the military capabilities of Iran to include decimating their naval force to one that's because it's asymmetric, is really focused on economics and the economics of this is, is on the side of Iran. Let's just be clear, they have gained more economically by closing the Straits of Hormuz than they did by joining the JCPOA by tenfold. Tenfold. Right. So we're now removing sanctions on their oil which because of this closing of the straits is at what110 now. And I just heard from a friend that follows this, we should have him on by the way that in some places In Asia it's 165. So they are making a ton of money and so is Russia by the way, since we removed sanctions on them. They had gone down to at the after we put sanctions on two of the major energy producers, $30 a barrel they were selling at big discounts because they couldn't sell it anywhere. Now they're making a windfall which of course is going to help them in the war in Ukraine and other topics. So what are we going to do about this? Promoted, you know, finish your military objectives, be straight with, you know, the fact that it's not going to, we're not going to eliminate every weapon that the Iranians have. It's impossible. It's four times the size of Iraq and they're very good at fighting their mobile missile launchers and drone launchers. But we are going to substantially reduce it, take it as a win and then figure out a way to get back and using our partners who have all the incentive in the world to help us get to a diplomatic resolution. If not, and we do strike in 48 hours, they're including their nuclear power plant at Natanz. I believe, as we talked about, it's clear that Iran's going to strike back at our partners. Probably their power grid, probably their desalinization plants and potentially more of the oil and gas capacity they have. Like, what is it, the North Dorm and Dome and Qatar's gas fields. That's going to drive prices up even more, which is a benefit for Iran now because they're selling their oil. So I'm not sure what the overall strategy is. It's clear that the force that's on route and I actually, I can't remember. I don't want to get it wrong. I had a friend calculate when both the 11th and 31st municipality would get there. So we should find that out and let people know because it's a pivotal point. If that's our plan to open up the straight, I will end with this before throwing out over to everybody else. You know, as a guy who used to box and coach boxing, this is like a slow motion right cross, right. The Marines coming across the ocean, right? They have plenty of time to go, hey, man, you remember all those 5,000 naval mines we have? Perhaps we could just go ahead and do it. There's all sorts of things they can wire Carg Island. They could do all sorts of things to get ready for this force to arrive. So I think again, our focus should be on rightfully saying what we did and that this needs to have a strategic pause and look for a path out. If not, all this is going to do is cause a huge economic crisis around the world. And remember, it's not just oil and gas. It's also helium. That comes out of like 30% of the helium might have this percentage wrong, which is all used to make the high tech chips. The nitrogen that is used for fertilizer. It's going to cause everything to go up. All of our partners and allies are going to be looking at us for figure out a way out of this. You started it, didn't ask us and now everybody's paying the price. I just think it's going to be because of the economic consequences of this. This could turn into a strategic loss for the United States. And I'm rooting for the United States. So this isn't just criticism. This is, this is like, we got to figure this out. We do have smart people that need to be engaged in this. And, and I think we can still come away with a military success, but not a strategic, strategic one. So,
- [07:55]
Mark Polymoropoulos
yeah, I mean, isn't it the case really deep, to your point. I mean, the threat to destroy. And I want to begin, actually, because I always begin this way by saying, absolutely, I support what Mick says. That has helped me tremendously in this podcast. But I would like to make the point to yours in your opening comment that the threat to destroy Iranian power plants if Hormuz is not reopened, arguably not just escalation. It's a shift in the character and the objectives of the campaign. It's evolving into a war of mutual economic and infrastructure attrition, not just the military campaign. And of course, for the reasons that Mick laid out, that's, that's supremely dangerous. You know, Iran's responded by saying they're going to hit, continue to hit Gulf energy infrastructure, desalination plants, which, by the way, are a huge deal. Saudi Arabia alone, I know, is all the countries in the region dependent on those desalination plants. And that's a, you know, that's it. And then they're a soft target, too, and potentially IT systems, right? And, you know, we haven't even talked about things like the fiber optic cables and everything that, that, that run under the Straits of Hormuz. I mean, there's whole, there's a whole new vista, right, of, of possible. You don't have to be Chicken little to, to see that this is potentially a very bad thing.
- [09:37]
Podcast Host (The Teamhouse)
Who wants it, John or Mark? You guys can mud wrestle.
- [09:42]
Jonathan Hackett
I'll jump in on the straits issue. So there's more than one strait, and right now we've been focused on the Straits of Hormuz. There's another important strait, the Bab El Mandab Strait. And we're talking about the economic disaster that comes from closing off the Straits of Hormuz, which is certainly true. Well, there's another economic disaster that's waiting to happen. 12% of global shipping per year passes through the Suez Canal. That's not oil. That's if you like Shein products, for example, or you like other things that go through the Straits of malacca, which is 60% of world trade, usually a lot of that goes to the Suez Canal as well. So if you like buying things on Amazon, suddenly either the prices are going to go up or the stocks are not going to be there, or both. So you're going to start seeing different economic impacts than just $7 a gallon for diesel that we are seeing right now in places like California, for example. Over here in New England, I just saw it was over $6 a gallon per diesel right here. That's just gas. But once this starts Spreading to the Suez Canal, it's a totally different story. And the reason I'm bringing this up is because if you're thinking through the eyes of the adversary, they're looking at what other pieces do we have to put in play? Well, the Houthis have been strangely quiet, Strangely quiet. And I think that's for strategic reasons. That's not a mistake. And once the Houthis are brought into play, their area of operations is not the Straits of Hormuz, it's the Bab el Mandab Strait. They've been preparing for this for a very long time. And the Strait of Hormuz is tiny compared to the Bab el Mandab Strait. Space, you're talking about 2,200 kilometers of Red Sea. If you've ever been on a cruise down to Port Said in Egypt, it takes a very long time on a vessel going full speed to get down there. You're exposed for hours, if not days, all the way down the coastline of Yemen that's controlled by the houthis, something like 400km long. Huge amount of coastline that's exposed and is under no control by anyone else except the Houthis. And that's been that way for a while. The Saudis couldn't defeat them, the Emiratis couldn't defeat them. You go back into the Ottoman period in the 16th centuries, the Ottomans could not defeat them. This is kind of an undefeated force that's been living in these mountains, looking down on you like by trajectory for a very long time. Like the perfect position to take up to fire a C208 Chinese manufactured ship anti ship missile, which they have at you. So when we're thinking about this, looking at insurance, for example, companies like Maersk are not going to be able to get insured to put vessels in the Red Sea at some point within the next seven days, probably, because even if the threat hasn't materialized, it's enough for an insurance company to say, we're not going to be making money on these shipments, so we're not insuring you. So this is a big problem that is going to begin rapidly gaining our attention soon if we do anything in the Straits of Hormuz. So I just want to put that out there to kind of broaden the lens a little bit, because sometimes it's easy to get sucked into a specific mention of something like the Straits of Hormuz when we're not thinking about what do the outer cordon areas look like and where is our actual rear at in this situation? Because we want our rear to be around the Straits of Hormuz, but the adversary can shift our rear somewhere else.
- [12:31]
Andy Milburn
Rude points. I think there's. I mean, God, there's a whole bunch of stuff to cover. I think it was. I kept jotting things down, so I'll go quickly on this, but there was kind of five points I wanted to make. One is, I might have mentioned this in a previous podcast. I had lunch recently, mif, I think, you know, this individual with, with Dan Shapiro, who is the former U.S. ambassador in Israel. And you know, we were kind of just lamenting over the notion of, you know, you can, you can overall support the war aims. I'll go over the idea of imminence of the Iranian threat in a second because I don't think that's true. But Iran's certainly an enemy of the United States, an incredibly weak state. So just in kind of theoretical terms you can support this. But the problem is you have just this wildly incompetent administration on every level. The messaging is awful. You have leadership at the Pentagon and the civilian side, which is comical. And I do think, and this is not a ding at any military brethren. But, you know, we are getting romanced a little bit by positive military math. I mean, Dan Kane comes out and gives a hell of a press conference, as Mick noted. And Jonathan, everyone. Andy. Jonathan, Andy. Military objectives can be met, but that all might not matter because of the kind of the strategic incoherence. And so we're romanced by this. These, you know, sure, we have attrited the Iranian Navy. Okay. But you know, at the end of the day, the key objective in all of this, the Iranian nuclear program, I don't think we've touched yet. Yet. And you know, everyone was focused the last couple days. CBS News reported it first. We've all talked about it in side chats about potential soft missions and we don't have to. And everyone's got their sources in there and we probably shouldn't talk about exactly what's being planned, but we have not kind of actioned that key target there. And so there is a huge objective that has not even been touched. So I worry about, you know, you know, again, really, you know, military objectives may be being met. I also have flashbacks of Afghanistan and Iraq where we heard the same type of briefings from our military leadership. And some of them, and most of it was true, some of it in fact was not. So I actually have a little more, even more of a distrust of anything the government's saying. Maybe I'm turning into a conspiracy theory. So there's that. Number two, I wanted to raise something and this is a little personal because it's a former colleague is Joe Kent's coming out to her in which, you know, he laid this bombshell. And Joe, for all of the, you know, so he was incredibly well respected in the military, a very good paramilitary officer. Mick, I know you know him or knew him well, obviously some tragedy in his life. And then he went pretty extreme to the right with some conspiracy theories which he's now running around getting a massive audience. I'm talking Shawn Ryan, Joe Rogan, Tucker Carlson. This matters. And you know, and a lot of it, what he's saying is a little, a little out there, maybe a lot out there. Blaming the Israelis, I mean, blaming the Israelis for kind of our intervention in Syria is ridiculous. But that audience matters. And so I think you're seeing, you're going to see politically in the United States that this have an effect. Joe is not going to go quietly and he's not going quietly. It's worth discussing that. Another thing is something I threw out on Twitter this morning on X, whatever you call it just has to do with the question on intelligence. And it's the idea that we have this incredible manhunting capability that we all worked on and refined and we're really fricking good at it. But is that, you know, but then there's questions now is, you know, is the supreme leader alive? What are Iranian plans and intentions? And I was talking to a former Israeli Mossad and actually Both Mossad and 8200 officer, their SIGIN service. And both of us were chatting this morning about, you know, do we really have an insight on Iranian plans and intentions? There's the ACIA has always been great at manhunting. We're not really good at penetrating hard targets. And so we actually know what the Iranians are planning and doing because if we did some of these insane policies, I don't really understand the idea of, you know, loosening sanctions on Iran that Scott Bessant, the secretary of treasury, kind of laid out there. Just politically, it's ridiculous. But I don't even think it's going to work. And so, you know, so where are we, you know, these some of the decisions that are being being made. I question, Jonathan, you mentioned the Houthis. That's huge. I've been, you know, everyone's scratching their head on Iranian asymmetric capabilities. If the Houthis kind of unleash what they're capable of, we're going to be in trouble, just in terms of, you know, you know, naval resources on this. And then the last piece has to do with something that I think matters during the hearing when Tulsi Gabbard kept saying, and she's wrong on this, that the President decides on whether Iran is an imminent threat or not. And that's actually just not true. And I think the listeners have to understand, actually the intelligence community does this. That's a fundamental nature of what we do. We did it all the time in getting approval for kinetic strikes in Afghanistan and Pakistan and Syria and Yemen. Other places we decide the Imminence. You present it to the nsc. There's a bit of a kind of a group meld in this. And then the President ultimately will give approval or not, but doesn't describe the Imminence piece. And so I do not think this war was fought over an imminent threat. You can still make a case for fighting this war, and we haven't done that very well. But the Imminence is bullshit. And I don't care about this intermediate range missile that was shot at one of our, you know, at Diego Garcia. That is not. Again, Russia has a hell of a lot. Russia has ICBMs. Is Russia an imminent threat to the United States right now? I think it's a huge threat. Is it imminent? No. And so I actually disagree with this, the idea of imminence. And I think the Israelis, as they're now running around screaming, you know, London and Paris, are at threat, really risk going back to alienating just about the rest of America. Now, who, Joe Kent is going to ensure that hates the Israelis in perpetuity. And so that's just kind of my thoughts on a Sunday morning in D.C. where it's going to hit 80 degrees. So there's that, that's. There's some good news.
- [18:22]
Mark Polymoropoulos
John, I got a question. Why do you think the Houthis have not raised their head above the parapet yet? Is it, is it fear of strikes? Is it because they want to appease the Saudis, because you've kind of, you've had a de facto ceasefire there for a period of months, or do you think they're waiting to see what happens?
- [18:45]
Jonathan Hackett
I think the Houthis are not as closely connected to the regime as other proxies are. And the Houthis tend to have a little bit of independence of decision making. And it's not until there's an imminent challenge for them in their home turf that they seek to defend their land. Of course.
- [19:03]
Mark Polymoropoulos
And the difference between the Houthis and the United States is. The Houthis can recognize an imminent threat accurately.
- [19:11]
Jonathan Hackett
Right? That's true. But I mean, the Houthis have been under IRGC and specifically Quds Force tutelage for a long time. They've been an unconventional warfare partner for a long time. During COVID I remember the Quds Force commander died of COVID in Yemen, which was a very interesting development during that time. And the Houthis care about Zaidi areas, and Zaidis are what the Houthis actually are. A lot of us call the Houthis the Houthis. The Houthis don't call themselves this. This is actually somebody's last name. They call themselves Ansar Allah, which is soldiers of God. And they're from the Zaidi clan, which has existed since the 10th century. I always have to put the history in there because it's very easy to forget, like where these people came from and why are they fighting. Why the Houthis are fighting is not for Iran. The Houthis are fighting for Houthi identity, Zaidi identity in Yemen, which is the North Yemen area. And not until that area is in danger do I think the Houthis will take a step to actually fire a shot. They're going to wait until they feel that they are threatened, which at this moment they're not.
- [20:07]
Andy Milburn
That's a great answer.
- [20:11]
Mick Mulroy
Oh, sorry, Andy.
- [20:14]
Mark Polymoropoulos
No, here's really a question for you guys I wanted to throw out. So we, we talked about, which I thought was significant. The, you know, the, the shift in emphasis of the war from perhaps military targeting on both sides now to energy infrastructure and all of that and potential dangers and repercussions of the global economy. We talked about, you know, the bab, which is a great point, that things could easily get worse there, escalation. I'd be interested to hear your thoughts about the two Muse in route. Right. Because when I'm reading even positive comments about this and giving President options, I think it's important to make the point that even, even with two Muse and we can get into and talk about it. We've got plenty of Marines here, but the most they can do is, is open a corridor temporarily. Right. They can't make the strait truly safe. And what they do is temporary and it's at tremendous risk. I'm not sure that I've seen conversations that really balance that. That's, you know, the. We all like to think the Marines are sent somewhere and they saved the day and it's all over. But, but in this case, it seems like there's a tremendous amount of risk and the reward is very limited.
- [21:36]
Mick Mulroy
Good point. And I don't know if you saw, but General Votel, who's knocking the ball with me at Mei, came out in an interview and said he doesn't see what the purpose would be for Marines seizing Ghark. Essentially, they would be very vulnerable to a counterattack. It's what, 20 miles off the coast. And essentially if we wanted to end their ability to use it, we could simply strike it from the air.
- [22:04]
Podcast Host (The Teamhouse)
Right.
- [22:05]
Mick Mulroy
If they don't react, if they simply go, okay, well I guess you, you're parked on our island. What's the purpose? Are we just going to withdraw? We're going to withdraw into fire. That again, is, does not look good. And I, I don't think anybody would challenge. He's not a Marine, of course, but you know, the former jsoc, SOCOM and CENTCOM commander whose, you know, experience and integrity is unimpeachable. So I think they better list. That's what I'm saying. And again, I'm sure the Marines can take it. I have great confidence in my fellow Marines, but they have to have a real purpose. And this and as you just said, Andy, it would be temporary at best. And it doesn't mean that they still can't. Even if we did everything with the greatest Navy in the world and the greatest Marine Corps, it doesn't mean that there's commercial ships are going to be confident going through those. That straight just doesn't. It could simply say, you know, we don't, we're not insured. The other part is getting a company to insure it, even with, you know, the, the amount of military effort we have there. But, and I'll toss this over to the other two, but I did want to make a point to back mark up. The intelligence community absolutely determines threats. That's like the primary purpose of it. Right. During this discussion that they were having on the Hill, it was in the global Threats was annual briefing. It's in the name. Right. And so if you're identifying threats, you're obviously trying to find out which one's eminent because that's the one you have to act on first. So the idea that we, the intelligence community don't identify that is, is contradicted by the very nature of the briefing that that person was in the director. Right. So I don't understand that at all. The president, of course, gets to determine whether we're going to do a preemptive war based on an imminent threat if it's, if it's a self defense then our forces around the world have the ability to to respond without that. And it's clearly and I don't Joe wasn't we were in the same unit. I don't know well but he was right about that. There wasn't an imminent threat and everybody knows that intelligence community has already briefed that on the hill and I think we all know that it's going to come out. So but as they accept that they're definitely a threat, we decided to take preemptive action in a war of choice. And that's how history is going to no matter how many times you tweet the opposite, that's how history is going to record this. Now the question is of course that's in the rearview mirror. How do we come out of this with the United States is a success. That's what I think we should or excess as we can get. That's what I think we really need to focus on.
- [24:53]
Howie Mandel
The Global Gaming League is presented by Atlas Earth, the fun cashback app. Hey, it's Howie Mandel and I am inviting you to witness history as me and my Howie do it gaming team take on Gilly the King and Wallow267's million dollars gaming in an epic global gaming league video game showdown. Plus a halftime performance by multi platinum artist Travy McCoy. Watch all the action and see who wins and advances to the championship match right now@globalgamingleague.com that's globalgamingleague.com in partnership with Level Up Expo.
- [25:23]
Megan McCardell
Has the news been getting you down? I'm Megan McCardell and I'm here to help. I'm the host of a new show from Washington Post Opinion called Reasonably Optimistic and it's an antidote to the pessimism that's riddling America right now. Every Wednesday I'm gonna talk to people who see a path forward.
- [25:40]
Whimsound Smart Speaker Advertiser
It does seem to me that there is some awakening of a desire to act together to solve problems where they are.
- [25:46]
Jonathan Hackett
You know, I am a believer in America and it's worth fighting for.
- [25:49]
Megan McCardell
Join me Wednesdays on YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [25:53]
Howie Mandel
The Global Gaming League is presented by Atlas Earth, the fun cashback app. Hey, it's Howie Mandel and I am inviting you to witness history as me and my how we do it gaming team take on Gilly the King and Wallow267's million dollars gaming an epic global gaming league video game showdown. Plus a halftime performance by multi platinum artist Travy McCoy. Watch all the action and see who wins and advances to the championship match right now@globalgamingleague.com that's globalgamingleague.com in partnership with Level Up Expo.
- [26:23]
Andy Milburn
I think Andy's dog is about to eat him.
- [26:27]
Podcast Host (The Teamhouse)
He sees Russians outside.
- [26:29]
Mick Mulroy
Have you not fed. What's your dog's name?
- [26:34]
Andy Milburn
Making me nervous.
- [26:34]
Podcast Host (The Teamhouse)
Dog's name's Richie.
- [26:36]
Mark Polymoropoulos
Richie? Yeah.
- [26:36]
Podcast Host (The Teamhouse)
He's from Ukraine.
- [26:38]
Mark Polymoropoulos
Yeah.
- [26:39]
Andy Milburn
Let me ask a question to you guys. I was, I worked obviously at CIA, not in the military. So, you know, I don't. And this is not a criticism. I have this discussion with my other former military friends. I mean, there almost is an instinctive desire on you all to defend the military on this at all costs. I mean, so the military objectives are being met. God bless the men and women in the armed forces. I'm for all that. But can we, can we actually not raise the question of, hey, maybe this, maybe the military is actually not doing a great job. Not in terms of the men and women who are on the USS Ford or God bless the F35 pilots, but actually people at the Pentagon who are making strategy because they didn't plan for the Straits of Hormuz issue. I mean, Admiral Cooper might be a great guy. CENTCOM Chief, like, did they not anticipate these things? I think we can be a little more forward leaning and actually criticizing the leadership in the Pentagon. The uniform leadership, not the men and women who are out there in harm's way. God bless them. We all were at the tip of the spear before. Nothing to do with it except do your job. You know, are we giving, are we giving the chairman of Joint Chiefs a break? Hegseth is a complete and total idiot. It's painful to watch him. Everyone ignores that. And you focus on Dan Cain. But what if Dan Cain's strategy is off a little bit? Can I throw that out to you guys? Not to be too provocative, but maybe we're giving them kind of a pass a little bit.
- [27:57]
Mark Polymoropoulos
It's a great point, Mark. And, and as you, you know, we've discussed here, this is not a new plan. This isn't like something they, they created out of whole cloth recently. And, and as you guys, and obviously we were staying on the right side of the classified here, but we all know that as, as you go through a plan, you, you, you're coming up with contingencies. The, the streets of Hormuz, you know, having been at Sauk Cent, the Bab and the streets of Hormuz were always forefront during planning all the contingency plans we came up with there. The economic consequences are huge and it's impossible to separate them from military objectives. And we were always very much aware of that. I'm not trying to pretend to be smarter than the planners involved in this, but that does leave me kind of incredulous that no one on the military side didn't say, hey boss, had you considered these things? Because best military advice includes a very clear explanation of the risks. And those risks aren't just operational risks, they need to be. Well, in this case, they have impact on the global economy. So I don't know, I can't answer your question, mark, but I think it's a really, it's a valid question. And I don't think, I think we're too quick to give our military leadership a pass. That's kind of all of us are burned in some way by the way that the US withdrew from Afghanistan. And there was plenty of blame being heaped on various administrations. But I for one sat in endless number of briefs where I heard military commanders tell both their political leadership and their own leadership within the military that everything was going great, that yes, you know, a year ago, before my unit got here, things were pretty shitty. But look, we've really turned things down and we're on the path to victory. We heard that time and time again at every single level within the military. Telling the unvarnished truth, explaining what the risks are, speaking truth to power is all, is all part and parcel of the responsibility of being a four star leader. We treat them like viceroys. And as that quote from the overused quote from Spider man comes to mind, right. With great power comes great responsibility. And I'm not sure what happened in this particular case.
- [30:37]
Jonathan Hackett
I think we're also seeing this, you know, the subordination of the military instrument of national power to the policy level to politics. You could have the most brilliant strategy on the planet. But if the policy executor, policymaker doesn't want to touch your advice, it means nothing. And as Andy's mentioning, we have these contingency plans that exist that are very elaborate with elaborate contingencies that branch off of each other. If this happens, these other three things might happen. We recommend number one because that has this outcome, all that can be so beautiful and exquisite until it's presented to the person who's making the decision. And they say, I don't care about that, I want you to do this other thing instead. And we can keep kicking and screaming, but the Problem is you only kick and scream so much until you're either pushed out, which is a noble thing, or you choose to be silent. And I've seen this happen a lot at the operational level, up to the general officer level of recommending things at the, you know, in the country where we'd recommend certain outcomes. And the general chooses not to do that because they have their own political reasons to not do that. We had a situation in Afghanistan where there were all these classified maps that were being printed out and used as bus route maps for large bases like Leatherneck and Kandahar. And we knew we had intelligence that there was Taliban in Pakistan using those maps to plan against the base. Took all the maps down, briefed the general, the two star, about it, General Garganis, who was actually later fired about it. He said, put the maps up. The people need to know how to get around on buses on the base. And we said, these are secret maps, they shouldn't be there. You have third country nationals with these maps. He said, I don't care. The people need to get on buses and get around the base. Two months later, the base was attacked. The most highest ranking person killed since Vietnam, battalion commander was killed in that attack because that general refused to listen to the actual risk recommendations. And that's not even outside the military. That's just at the GO level.
- [32:22]
Mick Mulroy
I'll weigh in on this. I mean, I do have somewhat of an instinctual defense of the military, just like I do my friends, but because they're one in the same, I guess I should say. But it's important to point out, I mean, ultimately, policies made by civilian leadership, that's our, that's our system. And this civilian leadership has decided that anybody that disagrees with them can lead. I mean, that was said to them specifically. Right. So a lot of the core of who would have been there has left. That's just a fact. They were fired, they were told to leave whatever reason, because they were somehow associated with the last administration. Even though military, military uniform, military isn't associated with any administration or party. That's the point. So I'd start with that. The other part, we've, we've seen the degradation and I don't know the specifics, so I don't want to overstate it, but they're not using the NSC the way it has historically been used. Right. So policy decisions, especially big strategic ones, go through a process. They start at a fairly low level, high level in general, but low level when it comes to being at the White House. They ARGUE there's the DoD, State, Energy, treasury, all of it. And it goes up and there's many opportunities to inject your points. And then if everybody agrees, it usually stops there. If people don't agree, then it keeps going up until it gets to the top. This, according to the Wall Street Journal. I believe the article was, was just like the President, vice president, Secretary of State, defense and the Chairman. I fully think that General Kane is competent and is listening to his people. And I think he was told this is going to be an air war, it's going to last for this amount of time and we're going to do these stated military objectives. And then it changed. Right. Because there's no reason for Muse to now be streaming across if that was part of the original plan. It's just, I mean, you can't, you can't avoid that one fact. And now the 82nd airport, apparently, and correct me if I'm wrong, if this is just wrong, social media stuff is being given warning orders and I think it is. Right, Right. So it's clear that this wasn't part of the plan. So the military was told to do this and now they're told to do that. And I think we're in a situation where it's really a day by day thing. Like we went from the commander in chief saying this is about over to you have 48 hours. And if you don't do what I tell you to do, we're going to escalate this substantially. And by the way, even though it's about over, the Marine Corps gets here in 10 days or whatever the plan. Right. There's so many inconsistencies that imagine if you were the one trying to orchestrate this, you know, the chairman and of course Admiral Brad, Admiral Brad Cooper, who's ultimately responsible for it. I simply don't think they know what they're supposed to plan for and what the overall objective is and when this timetable is going to run its course. I think they're just adjusting based on different guidance and inputs they're getting daily.
- [35:38]
Andy Milburn
Let me ask you guys from your network because I mentioned the kind of the Joe Kent piece and we don't have to get into Joe Kent specifically, but it's just the message he's putting out there. I mean, I see it and again, what do I know? I'm sitting in D.C. i see it on social media, but I think it's resonating amongst significant portions of the population. He's getting a lot of attention. And Joe Rogan and Tucker Carlson and Sean Ryan have massive followings. These are, these are, you know, tens of millions of people are going to hear this message. Do you think what he has, and my comment earlier was, I think, you know, I don't agree with what he's saying on a lot, specifically some of the kind of the stuff that's more out there. But do you think it has resonance not just amongst kind of the, Perhaps what would be the president's supporters, but in the veteran community? Because I think one of the things that, you know, if you watch Fox News, you think, oh, everybody, you know, who served in the military, who's a giant patriot, is going to support this. But that's not what I'm hearing at all. I've done some other podcasts kind of in the same space this show's in, but kind of in the vet pro space. And there's a lot of opposition to this. What do you think Joe Kent's, you know, do you think his message is going to resonate particularly amongst those that you might have thought would be supportive of this war?
- [36:53]
Podcast Host (The Teamhouse)
Yes, I do. And like, frankly, like, let's be honest, like, no one's really going to parse his statement out. Like, they're not going to sit there and be like, oh, yeah, the serious stuff is bullshit. Maybe the Iran stuff is kind of true. I mean, he was inside, so no one's going to parse that out. It's gonna be brought up as like, I just, you just know it. And like, if there's do. If they're gonna do polls, they should, like, the level of anti Semitism that's growing in this country, it's growing, it's not going down. And he's gonna be a mouthpiece to it. Even though you, you can be against Israel and what they're doing in the Middle east and not be anti Semitic, it's fucking possible. Like, you know, I am one of them. So, like, I have Jewish, I live in New York. Like, you know what I mean? Like, I, they're everywhere. Like, they're friends of mine. I work with them. Like, but I can't, I don't agree with what Israel is doing and how they're going about everything that's gone on after October 7th. I'm not saying don't swack everybody in Hamas. Do it. Do what you're good at, but don't, you know, kill 70,000 plus people. And I think that's just like, since then it's been a cascade. And like you said, all the influencers out there and Most of the people listening are not looking at the nuances whatsoever. So that's. And what. And that's just the world we live in.
- [38:15]
Mick Mulroy
So, as bio boss used to say, when you go to war, you want to bring every friend you have with a gun. Right. I think I'm paraphrasing. I'm a secretary, Madison, who was on PBS with another friend of mine, Ryan Holiday. So two of the things I know, national security and stoicism, the same bundle.
- [38:34]
Jonathan Hackett
So.
- [38:36]
Mick Mulroy
And two people admire. So depends on what you're talking about. When it, when it comes to what Joe is saying, I think obviously the eminent threat wasn't there. That's going to be clear. I think that's going to. History is going to show that on Israel. I mean, if I was Israel, I'd want my biggest brother to come fight with me, too. So I don't really even know, like. So you're, you're, you're criticizing them for. They felt it was in their own strategic interest to do this. They wanted the United States to go with them. But we made the decision. So, I mean, I don't even, that's not, I don't even view that as a criticism of Israel. We made the decision to go. Nobody tells President Trump what to do. I mean, I think that's a fair line. I mean, you can say what you want, but they don't think that he just says do this and he's ever done that. So I don't understand that criticism. But the overall criticism is we're getting into another war in the Middle east, and this was not supposed to be, you know, America first and all that. I mean, I think it's going to resonate eventually. People are going to go, yeah, wait, that was, this is the opposite. I mean, we just saw a request for $200 billion. That's 1/4 of what the Iraq war cost. Right. It's one fourth of the annual budget for the Defense Department. So even if you're totally detached from the military action, something in your head's got to go. I'm about to pay $8 a gallon for gas, and I'm going to spend as a taxpayer, $200 billion to keep this going. I already said where I support on the objectives, but this is all issues that super senior policymakers need to take into account.
- [40:12]
Andy Milburn
This is going to your network. I mean, you know, you have friends on both sides of the aisle, but tons of former veterans. I mean, what, what are they thinking now? I mean, Joe, again. I think Joe's departure is meaningful in that world. But am I off on that or are you hearing these things saying, well, wait a second, he might be right.
- [40:30]
Mick Mulroy
I think there's probably a large element of the debt as we get further, further away from the Afghan, Afghanistan and Iraq for that matter. There's a lot of. Obviously I don't speak for the whole community, but I'll just characterize it ill will because it's non stop remembrance of the people who lost their lives in those conflicts, which we should do. But it's also people going, what was that all about? Literally we did all of this for say, Afghanistan and now it's all back to where it was before we started and maybe worse. Right. So there's a lot of ill will toward that. And then they're seeing, you know, okay, this was a limited military engagement. Maybe it's not. Now we have marines going, now we have paratroopers that might be going. So I think you're going to see a growing crescenda of the vet community, which I think has influence questioning what the plan is here. And if we start seeing marines and soldiers get killed because of, it's going to turn south really quick. And it should. I mean, this is a broader discussion, but we have a all volunteer military, so that separates the population from the actions of the military and the consequences. Right. If this was a draft, I'm not advocating for it. There'd be a lot more outcry going on right now. Right. So I, I think that kind of sentiment is going to be exhibited inside the vet community because they're looking out for their younger brothers here. So I think that, that's why I think we really need a plan because again, I'm all about the United States being not only military successful, but strategically successful here. We need a plan to off ramp this because if the plan is just to keep going up, that never works. Start sending troops into Iran, this is gonna, it's gonna be a revolt inside. I think the right side of the political sphere, in addition to the left side, this is not gonna go well. And ultimately we're democracy and that matters. That's the other benefit Iran has. They obviously don't care what the sentiment of their people are. They'll kill them. They've killed 30,000 of them just for protesting. So they have an advantage in the sense that they can inflict a lot of pain on their own people to try to sustain themselves through this because we cannot, because we have a democracy. And that democracy is going to rear its head soon.
- [42:55]
Podcast Host (The Teamhouse)
The midterm Fingers crossed on that one, Mick. Yeah, sorry, I'm being a snarky bitch. I'm sorry. Go ahead, Mark.
- [43:04]
Mark Polymoropoulos
No, Andy. Yeah, Mark, go. Go ahead. I was. I was just.
- [43:11]
Podcast Host (The Teamhouse)
Andy. No, no, Tommy, I'm sorry. I just.
- [43:13]
Mark Polymoropoulos
I thought you muted me.
- [43:15]
Podcast Host (The Teamhouse)
No, you're still here.
- [43:15]
Mark Polymoropoulos
As soon as I start to speak, that's what you do. So. Yeah. So, no, no, I mean, great. I. I've. I thought this, you know, who cares about the audience? I thought this was a really good conversation, talking about, you know, best military advice, the way decisions are made. The fact that decisions made in conflict should not be completely opaque. Certainly you have to pay attention to requirements for operational security, but at the same time, when you're waging war as a democracy, you have an obligation to inform the public of what your objectives are, where you're going, etc. Etc. And that. And so now we're at this point where we. Right. I think here in this group, collectively, if I can sum this up, we support certainly limited objectives towards Iran. We've all dealt with Iran as a bad actor in the region, an enormously destabilizing actor. Something needed to be done, to use that horrible cliche. But now we're looking at two areas of escalation. We talked about the energy piece, energy infrastructure, and we're talking about potentially ground troops. And those two narratives seem to be dominating the media right now. And in the last 10, 15 minutes, I'd like to get back to hear your views on. Now, before, we were talking about one mu. What can two mu's do? What are they likely to do? And we talked a little bit about the risk, but more detail on that because there's a lot of uninformed speculation in the media about sending Marines there and what potentially this deployment of the 82nd Airborne means, too.
- [45:08]
Andy Milburn
Yeah, one of those notes on that, too, is. Can we go over then just a little bit about. Well, first of all, I think we have the objectives of the meu, but just in ground forces overall. Are we talking just Carg island, the Straits of Hormuz issue, or are we also talking about, you know, how to secure the remaining heu? And I know we've talked about the nuclear stuff. I know we've. I think last week, Dave, we've done so many of these things, I can't keep track. But. But I think that, you know, that has to be out there, because while the energy thing is dominating now, the original objective of the war was the nuclear file. And so I guess maybe a way to pose this Question is, you know, assuming there's no diplomatic agreement, are there military means in which we can go in, find, secure and remove, And then prohibit the Iranian ability to continue on with their nuclear program? And what would that entail in an unclassified session? Is it going to be sof? Is it going to be the 82nd? Is it going to be any parts of the mutual. I mean, I think that's a good discussion to have. Jonathan, what do you think?
- [46:21]
Jonathan Hackett
So with the Marine air ground task force structure that the MU brings to this, which is unique, they have the logistics combat element, which will probably be the key player in what might come next, although they have the battalion landing team that's designed as like the combat arm of it. It's really logistics that matters here, especially if we're talking about removal of highly enriched uranium, because there's going to be that Tier one element, or whomever it is, that actually works on site with the material, but then you have hundreds of kilometers to move it out. No matter what way you do it. You could do it through air with, you know, a Runway that that's been tactically built. You could use AM2 matting or whatever you need to do to actually get aircraft in there, or no matting whatsoever in the desert, or vehicles, wheeled, whatever it is. You're going to have to have a logistics and sustainment component to that. That is the key player that's going to be probably 90% of this operation is in logistics and sustainment. Because once that Tier one unit's done with whatever it's doing, you got to exfil safely and you might have both components of the airing ground or whatever. We could talk about planning for that, but that's what that Marine unit can bring to this fight. And I think Kharg island is kind of a secondary issue when we're talking about the heu. And the reason I'm kind of thinking that is looking at what Axios put out, I think it was yesterday about the six things that the US has told Iran that they want to get out of this to end the conflict. And on there top part of it is the nuclear enrichment program. So if that's still top of mind, that's probably also top of mind at a policy level filtering down to the military planning, which means probably that that's what's going to be looked at here, not Carg island as the thing to hold, because as you said, Mick, they can land on Carg Island. They're very good at clearing, holding, sustaining on the island, but they're going to be inside the weapons engagement zone of very close range munitions that are way easier to use and hide, have mobile point of origin sites or poo sites that they can just move around in trucks all day long and just harass the island all day long without actually doing anything big. Whereas if you're using the MEW for a different option, which is this option we're discussing here as a logistics player, that's where you really have the MEW shine in what could happen in the next 48 hours to a week. The problem here is Trump's threat Yesterday about the 48 hour timeline wasn't strikes on nuclear sites, it was strikes on power plants. And so we've seen so far, Israel and the United States both being very precise in how they're targeting inside of Iran, where they're hitting very specific military or IRGC or security targets and political targets, not the people. They haven't been flattening buildings. They haven't been making it look like Gaza or southern Lebanon yet. They could do that. And the thing is, the reason probably they're not doing that is to keep the Iranian people who support the west from not supporting the west anymore. And this was a mistake we made exactly 23 years ago now, yesterday in the invasion of Iraq in 2003, March 2003, where the people in the beginning were very happy with what was going on, and that rapidly deteriorated because of decisions that we made in the West. And if those decisions now change in that same way, where we start hitting power plants and civilian infrastructures, desalinization plants, things that touch ordinary Iranians every day, you're going to rapidly see a loss of support on the ground in the country, which will make it very challenging. When you have a regime that's against you and a people that's for you, and that transitions to a regime that's against you and a people that's against you. This is what happened in 1980 when Saddam Hussein invaded Iran. In the beginning with the revolution, revolutionaries, not all of them supported the new regime. As soon as Saddam invaded and attacked civilians, you had support for the regime. So this is something that right now the US Is kind of at a precipice of do we go left or right? And if we continue keeping the people safe by not striking their power plants, by not striking desalinization plants, by not harming their food supply, we keep them on our side, but they could very easily go the other way.
- [49:59]
Mark Polymoropoulos
Yeah, to be, you know, that's an interesting, really interesting point, John, about The logistics support for such an operation. And you know, certainly I think we should maybe finish up talking more about the uranium enrichment mission, which is very complex. And as John, you indicated there is, you know, we'll keep this the right side of classified, of course, but you know, it's open source information that, that, that it is a potential mission and that there are units specially trained for that. But then remembering too, we're doing this in a hostile sovereign country with multiple sites requiring access to, to a secure airfield. A mission that would take at least a thousand guys, right. And would last the most optimistic estimates maybe a week. The most optimistic estimates, right. How do you, you know, so getting back to, we'll come back to that, but just saying that alone is an indication of what he, what a high risk mission this is. And of course we all have memories of Desert One. So potentially, I'm not saying this is the case. I mean logistically you could deploy one MU, Y2MUS. Maybe you're wanting to do simultaneous operations, right, the uranium enrichment mission, but you also want to hold the Iranians attention in the straits of Hormuz. Limited objectives, you know, seizing the islands, half a dozen. Half a dozen islands there that John can pronounce their names. John, one of the few, you know, few people who can pronounce all their names of those islands going off the missile sites, drone launch sites, mine caches, small boats, you know, things that the aviation campaign can't touch. And then 400 miles away, right. Second mu potentially taking carg island, why? Not exactly clear, but to seize for some reason Iranian oil infrastructure intact. All right? They're not simply landing to do a BDA and maybe all of those things happening simultaneously with this mission to secure uranium. And potentially that is a role for 82nd Airborne, not doing the actual hands on piece, but providing a quick reaction force and perhaps a security cordon. I don't know, I'm speculating, but all of these things perhaps in concert and getting back to the fact that deploying marines there, though it pains me to say so, is absolutely a temporary solution and it's high risk. You're not really going to keep the Straits of Hormuz open. You've got key risks, you've got vulnerability during the landing. You've got a fixed target problem, right. Once you're ashore, you're predictable, you're easy for Iran to target along the whole length of that coastline. The inland threat persists because Iran can still fire from the mainland right into the straits of Hormuz. And you're Dealing with that huge risk of mission creep, the requirement to extricate, the requirement to keep the Marines on the ground longer as you realize that your objectives can only be achieved by doing so. A supposed limited mission like that can grow very quickly.
- [53:40]
Jonathan Hackett
It can also be sucked in by our success.
- [53:42]
Mark Polymoropoulos
Yeah.
- [53:43]
Andy Milburn
A question for John and Andy. I know Mick jumped out. One of the things that we've seen, and I think it's pretty evident, is that there's been a brain drain on the civilian side, particularly in the intelligence community, certainly the State Department. I mean, George Kent, former ambassador, told me a quarter of the State Department's gone. I mean, that's staggering. Do you see, though? And so assuming where we are now in 2026, has there been that also level of departure and expertise in the US Military, both officer and enlisted corps? You know, for a long time, kind of the assumption was we have a battle tested, battle ready force, but we are getting a little bit farther away from Iraq and Afghanistan. And so, you know, this is not to say that there are not incredibly motivated Marines on that, you know, on the float now getting ready. And I'm sure, you know, they're not listening to these kinds of arguments. They're getting ready for the job at hand. But is there a notion that, well, hold on a second. We actually haven't done something like this for some time. Maybe there's elements of the soft world that have. But even there too, you know, and so, you know, we are, we are kind of moving farther away from actual, you know, where our forces were in combat. And so has there been that kind of drain of experienced personnel, both with the officer and the enlisted elements of the military?
- [55:03]
Jonathan Hackett
Yeah, I would say that that GWAT era of experience, it wasn't because of the administration, it was because of service limitations. I mean, really realistically, guys are serving maximum 20 years, some 30 years if they're officers and, you know, sergeants major and things like that. But the ones that were there during the invasion in 2003, for example, if they're still in now, they were privates and lieutenants back then. And now they're very, very senior, you know, and I was reading about the Operation Red Wings recap that you shared the other day. And the lieutenant commander that was in charge of that operation, that was his first combat deployment as a Navy seal. And we're probably going to see a lot of similar things now where you have guys who are at that field grade officer level, that this is their first combat deployment. So they may be well trained, they've Done a really good job on that pipeline, and they've worked hard to get where they are, but they have no combat experience. That's not their fault. But now, as the key decision maker at the operational level, especially in the soft world, they're the task force commander. They're making a combat decision on something they'd never experienced before. And the guys below them are looking at them as if that guy knows everything. I mean, that's the way that we're brought up, right? To respect everything that they're saying to us and to follow it, execute it, no matter what, because he's the guy. Well, that guy might not have any experience on that thing he's deciding on. He just has the ability to make decisions quickly, which is an excellent skill. But he hasn't tested that yet. And that's a concern.
- [56:18]
Podcast Host (The Teamhouse)
I mean, you saw that with the Maduro Ray too. Like half the operators and half the Rangers were. There's a first time in combat.
- [56:26]
Mark Polymoropoulos
There's a pernicious psychological element to this too, when it comes to military leadership in these sort of situations. And I'm just, you know, and it's unfortunate, but it's just human nature, right? So for that very reason, you know, a lot of these guys have come in on the tail end of Afghanistan and Iraq and to their. All their careers to date, and their careers have, have so far been unblemished by combat, but they've had to hear the legacy of those who went before them. Right. You know, you should have been here back In, I don't know, 06 you talk about. I mean, they, they've listened to this for, even for, for mature commanders, there's this urge to, to prove themselves. And, and I think, you know, this is undoubtedly a risk too. We are sitting here, all of us, right, armchair now, armchair warriors, and we're looking at two Muse sailing towards the, the Gulf. And, and we've talked about the risk versus reward in this, right? And it's very clearly evident to all of us that it's, it's kind of a limited reward, huge amount of risk. Who is, who is telling the boss then, right? Who in uniform is saying this? Hopefully someone is. Someone is pointing it out.
- [57:57]
Jonathan Hackett
It was kind of like in October after 9, 11, you know, when everyone went into Afghanistan, like right away, a lot of people thought, like, I want to get on that deployment right now because it's going to, this is going to be over in a couple of weeks. It lasted for a lot longer than that. But that's the feeling that Especially a junior guy who don't want to miss out. Absolutely.
- [58:13]
Mark Polymoropoulos
Can't miss this.
- [58:14]
Jonathan Hackett
Yeah. And they're looking up at their colonels and other 06s and they're looking at these guys were Vietnam veterans, you know, and like I missed my shot in the 80s, you know, I joined in the late 90s. This is my only chance. I gotta get out the door right now. And I'm sure that guys are thinking that right now. I mean, I would be too if it was me. And I had just joined.
- [58:32]
Megan McCardell
Has the news been getting you down? I'm Megan McCardell and I'm here to help. I'm the host of a new show from Washington Post Opinion called Reasonably Optimistic and it's an antidote to the pessimism that's riddling America right now. Every Wednesday I'm going to talk to people who see a path forward.
- [58:49]
Whimsound Smart Speaker Advertiser
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- [58:55]
Jonathan Hackett
You know, I am a believer in America and it's worth fighting for.
- [58:58]
Megan McCardell
Join me Wednesdays on YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [59:02]
Bleacher Report Announcer
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- [60:01]
Podcast Host (The Teamhouse)
u n d. I mean, isn't that why the theory of having competent civilian leadership is what makes sure you know you point the the gun where you want it to go if you need it to go with based on really good intelligence. This does feel like kind of like the Iraq war and the build up in reverse because the Iraq war they took a whole year to like tell us about yellow cake and tell us about anthrax and all this stuff and connections to Al Qaeda and to sell their war. Right, because there's a different media environment, different political environment completely. Now it's like we started the war and now we're trying to sell it to you guys horrifically, because you see the polls, it's 30% approval and I think that's soft, you know, especially with the 200 billion gets, gets more and more traction. It's going to get, it's going to be even softer than that. So it's just a, you know, it's an interesting, there's an interesting dichotomy there between Iraq and Iran. What's happening now in Iran.
- [61:01]
Mark Polymoropoulos
I think what's not commonly understood is civilian control of the leadership. Civilian control of the military is a mainstay of one of the principles of a liberal democracy and it's entirely healthy. But what is not commonly recognized is you don't want that to be seamless at that nexus. You want constant tension on the military side. You want constant explanation of risks and had you thought about this and that and some degree of pushback not because it's mutiny, but simply because that is the function of best military advice. It needs to be candid and open to the point where sometimes it becomes annoying and seems to be a hindrance. You don't want both sides of that nexus always to be absolutely in agreement because that's just not healthy.
- [61:54]
Andy Milburn
Well, look, so let's go back to the Trump 1 administration. You had Jim Mattis when the Secretary of Defense who would push back at Trump all the time, Bob Woodward wrote in his book that Trump came up with the idea of trying to assassinate then Syrian president Bashar Al Assad. And Jim Mattis and Gina Haspel, CI director said no fucking way. That violates executive order. We can't do that. You don't have that now. So Pete Hegseth as the Secretary of Defense is not going to say that. But again, I think that we have to take a more critical view even of the uniform military. Dan Kaine was a three star nominated for the chairman of the Joint Chiefs. It was shocking at the time and the worry was is he going to have the gravitas to stand up to Trump? And all you hear from Trump is how much he loves raising Cain. And Cain's last job, frankly was the military advisor to the CIA director, which is not a stepping stone to be chairman of the Joint Chiefs. You know, he got his four star, but he was in a three star bill at CIA, which is not seen as something all that, you know, magical for progression. And so, you know, and, but we all look to Kaine in these briefings because you look at Hegseth and Ukraine, you looked at Kaine like, please, someone tell me the truth. And what if Kaine is not up to the job of telling, of standing up to Trump? You know, and so, you know, so I think that's worth questioning. If we start going down the path of some really, really risky military deployments like we're talking about now, could this be a giant feint? You know, you send the two muse, you send the 82nd. These are just posturing. I don't think so. Because history tells us when Trump deploys the military in that type of fashion, he actually uses it. You know, the Maduro op in Venezuela, which cost a gazillion dollars. You know, we all sat here waiting if you'd ever do it. He did it. Same thing with Iran. We deployed half the planet to, to the Middle east and he ends up going for it. And so, but, you know, if we end up pushing some of these really risky ops, I think you do have to then go back to, okay, did the chairman of the Joint Chief of Staff, who is that military advisor to the President. What he should have is a resignation letter in his desk saying, this is insane. We're going to lose a lot of people. Now, I know that's not what you are taught and it's inherently, you know, you want to kind of salute the civilian leadership going forward. But I do think, you know, Kaine's legacy is on the line here too. If stuff really goes south, you know, you can't only blame this on the civilian side of the US Government. It's the senior leadership, the senior uniform leadership, just like they deserve blame for what happened and never received, never received any sanction for what happened in Afghanistan.
- [64:31]
Mark Polymoropoulos
Yeah, it's a great point, Mark. And I think we've got a, I don't think that's, I think this is an intellectual gap in the military. I really do. And you know, General Votel obviously understands it and explains it very well. You know, his, his way of explaining this. And he was talking specifically to, to us at Soxent about the decision to kill those, the, the Russians in Syria. You remember that, right? Yeah, the Baghdad. And he talks about the conversations that he had at the time with Mattis and the President in the room, explaining clearly what the risks were as well as what the advantages were of doing this. So when it came to decision time, they didn't have to go through all of this again, but he was very votel. Very clearly will say, you absolutely are obligated to explain all risks about military courses of action. It seems to us obvious, but I'm not sure it is because how many generals have actually resigned because their military advice was not taken because they explain the risks in the last three decades? One guy, right General New Ball Freestar Marine, former. My new commander resigned in 2003 over the Iraq war. That didn't become a, you know, hasn't been touted much by the media. New Bolt subsequently didn't make a big deal of it, but that's why he stepped down. And that's the only example we have. It's not, it's not as though this is, this is really understood. I think a lot of four stars think, hey, I gave my advice, he didn't take it, so I went ahead and did it.
- [66:10]
Andy Milburn
Hey, for John and Andy, one last thing before we break. What's it like on the mew right now? You know, for the, for the men and women there? I mean it's pretty, pretty remarkable what they're sailing into. They probably have some idea, but you both have been in those positions. What are they thinking? You know, what's the camaraderie like? What's the resolve give. It's a. For those who have not experienced that, give a sense of that.
- [66:33]
Jonathan Hackett
I would think that they're probably very excited and they're each doing every like within their little component on the ship. They're all doing the maximum they can to get ready. They're doing different types of things on the boat if they can get, you know, doing drills if they can do drills. They're doing marksmanship over the bow. Like they're doing all these like fine tuning things as they're flowing and they're watching the calendar and thinking like one more day, one more day getting steaming ahead because this is the way that we're raised. You know, we're raised to be warriors and to fight. And especially at the low level, like the platoon level, the company level, those guys are not there to question policy, they're there to execute it and even all the way up. But I mean at that lower level, it's execute policy and execute it the best way you can, as flawlessly as you can, with as little casualty as you can. So they're practicing, putting on tourniquets, they're doing things like that to get ready to go. And they're not looking broader probably. Why would they're on the ship and they're going to war. This is probably how they're thinking about it.
- [67:24]
Mark Polymoropoulos
Yeah, tremendous. I agree. Tremendous amount of excitement. Full days on the flight decks doing training. The hardest part for leadership from platoon level upwards is rumor control. And that's going to be absolutely galloping. In a confined space like on a ship, there's going to be all kinds of rumors about potential missions and, and not a. Never enough information coming in.
- [67:55]
Andy Milburn
Is there, is there access to the news debate happening in the United States? Is that restricted as you get closer? Or is it. Is, you know, the news running 247 on, on board?
- [68:06]
Jonathan Hackett
It depends. We have something. If, if there's some reason they can actually shut off communications and they have a name for that, they'll actually turn it on and nobody can communicate outside. But they'll still be able to watch the news like in the chow hall. They'll see the tv, they'll see cnn, they'll see Fox. I don't know if they still see cnn. It used to be that we actually had CNN and Fox on at the same time. So we can see both sides.
- [68:27]
Mark Polymoropoulos
Right.
- [68:27]
Jonathan Hackett
And so that's, that's how they would look at the outside world. They have limitations on Internet sometimes, not because they, they're not allowed to, but because they don't have data access. So what you'd usually do is if you're on the, you know, on the deck and you're a infantryman, you make friends with an intel guy because he can go on the computer system and go read the news on the computer where you might not have that ability to do that.
- [68:50]
Andy Milburn
I remember in the infill into Iraq, I was up with Mick in the mountains of Kurdistan. And then I was pulled from that team to go in with the seals for the HVT hunt. I mean, the amount of excitement we had. And again, I was a very junior officer extraordinary. Again, that's what you trained for. You're there for that. You're not worrying about debate back home. You know, you feel like you're the tip of the spear. You're the one standing on the ramparts. And when it comes to, frankly, you know, going back to the really original point of our conversation when it comes to Iran, pretty easy to get motivated, you know, again, responsible for the deaths of a significant amount of U.S. forces, U.S. civilians and others. So. And then what's interesting, and maybe you guys can both comment in retrospect two decades later, is only when I started thinking about the wisdom of Iraq and same thing with Afghan Afghanistan stuff. And there's a time and place where you sit back and you say, was this all worth it? But not right now. When you're rolling in, you're pretty pumped. So I guess the question for you two is, have you had the time to reflect on your combat deployments? And was that initial euphoria, has that changed over time?
- [70:09]
Jonathan Hackett
Yeah, definitely. I mean, when you're on the deployment, you're like, this is it. And you almost don't want other information to come in to challenge the fact that this is it. Until then, time separates you from that moment. Then you start to look at the larger geopolitical reason and things you were doing there. There's a great book by blanking on his name right now, General, but he wrote the book War is a Racket, Smedley Butler. And it opens up by saying, I was a gangster of capitalism because he was in the banana wars. And it's an excellent book, and every lance corporal should read it because that tells you, from a general officer level, when he, in his moment of clarity, when he looked back and he said, wow, that's what I was doing. But in that moment, when you're on that island and you're sweating and you've got your gun and the other guy has his gun, you're not thinking about, what am I doing here? You're thinking about, how am I going to kill that guy and how do I survive? Right. And then everything else behind that that allows that to occur, that's what's in your brain at that moment.
- [71:02]
Mark Polymoropoulos
Yeah, I would agree. You know, even as a battalion commander in Iraq, towards the end of US Involvement there, when we sense that things, perhaps at the political level, weren't flowing the way they should. You know, we could sense that even in Anbar Province, and there was talk about disbanding the Sons of Iraq and all of that. And incidentally, my battalion had casualties directly from Iranian involvement. Even though all those things were happening, and even though I regarded myself as being educated and informed, I believed in the mission, you know, and it's only in retrospect, looking back, I'm not comparing myself to Smedley Butler, by the way, who had two medals of honor, so no one can question his loyalty. Right. But it's only in retrospect that I look back and wonder what it was all for, though I will. Getting back to the mew and flow of information is just an entirely random point that I have to bring up. We did know that we were going to land in Somalia because the salad Turned brown, which meant that we weren't taking aboard any more supplies. And that was our indicator. And sure enough.
- [72:24]
Podcast Host (The Teamhouse)
Yeah, guys, this is awesome. Obviously, you know, more is to come. You know, more to come. We're going to be looking at this very closely as we do I want you guys all do me a favor. I want you to check out John's books. Iran Shadow Weapons and I can't read it. The Theory of Irregular War. Both those links are in the description. Yeah, it cuts off barely. So I was trying to cheat and read them completely correct. Mark P. Check out his links down in the description. He's got a book too, about leadership. When are you going to write a memoir, by the way? Never. You're never getting cleared.
- [72:56]
Andy Milburn
Yeah, I don't know. I don't know. I mean, I. Geez, I'm playing again. I told you from the beginning, I'm toggling between playing pickleball with my wife and then going to the range with my son.
- [73:07]
Podcast Host (The Teamhouse)
That's actually sounds a lot better. Andy Milburn, when the Tempest Gathers. Great autobiography. Check it out. That link is in the description. And another book coming out soon. We'll, you know, stay here. Stay tuned in to find out when about. I'm writing a book. Yeah. It's coming out September.
- [73:28]
Mark Polymoropoulos
There you go.
- [73:29]
Podcast Host (The Teamhouse)
Yeah, it's not an autobiography.
- [73:32]
Mark Polymoropoulos
No, it's a. It's a dystopian novel.
- [73:35]
Podcast Host (The Teamhouse)
Yeah.
- [73:37]
Mark Polymoropoulos
That I think will make a great movie, but unfortunately very close to reality.
- [73:42]
Podcast Host (The Teamhouse)
Actually, I actually got an option too.
- [73:45]
Mark Polymoropoulos
Did you?
- [73:45]
Podcast Host (The Teamhouse)
Yeah. Yeah.
- [73:47]
Mark Polymoropoulos
Well, there you go.
- [73:48]
Podcast Host (The Teamhouse)
Yeah, we'll see how it goes. Hollywood's Hollywood, right? Yeah. It's a bullshit anyway.
- [73:51]
Mark Polymoropoulos
Wow.
- [73:53]
Podcast Host (The Teamhouse)
Yeah, we'll see. No, check it out. It's gonna come out in September, most likely. I'm almost done with it. American Insurgent.
- [74:02]
Andy Milburn
All right.
- [74:03]
Podcast Host (The Teamhouse)
Yeah. All right. So thanks. Thanks for bringing it up. I didn't really was planning on that, but yeah, I'm excited about it. It's going to be good. I hope it really makes some people mad. Honestly. That's probably my. My big goal about it. Mick Mulroy. The White Fish Security Summit is happening in a week. Almost a little bit more than a week. Check that out. The link is in the description. And Mick's got a new podcast, Pub in the Porch. Applied Stoicism. Great podcast. Check that out. And teamhouse. Patreon patreon.com theteamhouse Help support the show. Help keep us going, guys, as always, a pleasure.
- [74:39]
Andy Milburn
Bye bye.
- [74:42]
Mick Mulroy
Hey, everyone.
- [74:43]
Andy Milburn
I want to tell you about my new novel, the Most Dangerous man out in June.
- [74:47]
Mick Mulroy
It is a novel about a Regimental Reconnaissance Company soldier who gets kidnapped while he's on a mission to West Africa. And when he wakes up he finds that he is now being hunted for
- [74:58]
Andy Milburn
sport by a group of tech billionaires through the wilds of West Africa.
- [75:04]
Mick Mulroy
This book is based on stories that
- [75:06]
Andy Milburn
I heard over the years about safari
- [75:08]
Jonathan Hackett
guides taking wealthy clients hunting for poachers
- [75:11]
Mick Mulroy
on game reserves in Africa.
- [75:13]
Andy Milburn
I took that and I took a
- [75:15]
Mick Mulroy
century old short story, the Most Dangerous Game and modernized it.
- [75:19]
Jonathan Hackett
And the product is this book which I think will feel contemporary and resonate with audiences today. Thank you and please check it out.
- [75:28]
Megan McCardell
Has the news been getting you down? I'm Megan McCardell and I'm here to help. I'm the host of a new show from Washington Post Opinion called Reasonably Optimistic and it's an antidote to the pessimism that's riddling America right now. Every Wednesday I'm going to talk to people who see a path forward.
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Jonathan Hackett
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Megan McCardell
Join me Wednesdays on YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [75:58]
Howie Mandel
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Megan McCardell
Has the news been getting you down? I'm Megan McArdle and I'm here to help. I'm the host of a new show from Washington Post Opinion called Reasonably Optimistic and it's an antidote to the pessimism that's riddling America right now. Every Wednesday I'm going to talk to people who see a path forward.
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Megan McCardell
news been getting you down? I'm Megan McCardell and I'm here to help. I'm the host of a new show from Washington Post Opinion called Reasonably Optimistic and it's an antidote to the pessimism that's riddling America right now. Every Wednesday I'm going to talk to people who see a path forward.
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Megan McCardell
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Howie Mandel
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- [79:11]
Bleacher Report Announcer
The Bleacher Report app is your destination for sports right now. The NBA is heating up, March Madness is here and MLB is almost back. Every day there's a new headline, a new highlight, a new moment you've got to see for yourself. That's why I stay locked in with the Bleacher Report app. For me, it's about staying connected to my sports. I can follow the teams I care about, get real time scores, breaking news and highlights all in one place. Download the Bleacher Report app today so you never miss a moment.
- [79:41]
Megan McCardell
Has the news been getting you down? I'm Megan McCardell and I'm here to help. I'm the host of a new show from Washington Post Opinion called Reasonably Optimistic and it's an antidote to the pessimism that's riddling America right now. Every Wednesday I'm going to talk to people who see a path forward.
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Jonathan Hackett
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Megan McCardell
Join me Wednesdays on YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts Guests.
- [80:16]
Whimsound Smart Speaker Advertiser
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Bleacher Report Announcer
n d the Bleacher Report app is your destination for sports right now. The NBA is heating up, March Madness is here, and MLB is almost back. Every day there's a new headline, a new highlight, a new moment you've got to see for yourself. That's why I stay long locked in with the Bleacher Report app. For me, it's about staying connected to my sports. I can follow the teams I care about, get real time scores, breaking news and highlights all in one place. Download the Bleacher Report app today so you never miss a moment.
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Megan McCardell
Has the news been getting you down for? Hi, I'm Megan McCardell and I'm here to help. I'm the host of a new show from Washington Post Opinion called Reasonably Optimistic and it's an antidote to the pessimism that's riddling America right Now every Wednesday I'm going to talk to people who see a path forward.
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Whimsound Smart Speaker Advertiser
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Jonathan Hackett
You know, I am a believer in America and that's worth fighting for.
- [82:18]
Megan McCardell
Join me Wednesdays on YouTube, YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [82:21]
Howie Mandel
The Global Gaming League is presented by Atlas Earth, the fun cashback app. Hey it's Howie Mandel and I am inviting you to witness history as me and my How We Do It Gaming team take on Gilly the King and Wallow two six seven's million dollars gaming in an epic Global Gaming League video game showdown plus a halftime performance by multi platinum artist Travy McCoy. Watch all the action and see who wins in advances to the championship match right now@globalgamingleague.com that's globalgamingleague.com in partnership with Level Up Expo.
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Megan McCardell
Has the news been getting you down? I'm Megan McCardell and I'm here to help. I'm the host of a new show from Washington Post Opinion called Reasonably Optimistic and it's an antidote to the pessimism that's riddling America right now. Every Wednesday I'm going to talk to people who see a path forward.
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Whimsound Smart Speaker Advertiser
It does seem to me that there is some awakening of a desire to act together to solve problems where they are.
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Jonathan Hackett
You know, I am a believer in America and it's worth fighting for.
- [83:54]
Megan McCardell
Join me Wednesdays on YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [83:58]
Whimsound Smart Speaker Advertiser
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Howie Mandel
u n d the Global Gaming League is presented by Atlas Earth, the Fun Cashback app. Hey, it's Howie Mandel and I am inviting you to witness history as me and my How We Do It Gaming team take on Gilly the King and Wallow 267's million dollars gaming in an epic global gaming league video game showdown. Plus a halftime performance by multi platinum artist Travy McCoy. Watch all the action and see who wins and advances to the championship match right now@globalgamingleague.com that's globalgamingleague.com in partnership with Level Up Expo.
- [85:08]
Bleacher Report Announcer
The Bleacher Report app is your destination for sports right now. The NBA is heating up, March Madness is here and MLB is almost back. Every day there's a new headline, a new highlight, a new moment you've got to see for yourself. That's why I stay locked in with the Bleacher Report app. For me, it's about staying calm, connected to my sports. I can follow the teams I care about, get real time scores, breaking news and highlights all in one place. Download the Bleacher Report app today so you never miss a moment.
- [85:37]
Megan McCardell
Has the news been getting you down? I'm Megan McCardell and I'm here to help. I'm the host of a new show from Washington Post Opinion called Reasonably Optimistic and it's an antidote to the pessimism that's riddling America right now. Every Wednesday I'm going to talk to everybody, people who see a path forward.
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Whimsound Smart Speaker Advertiser
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- [86:00]
Jonathan Hackett
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- [86:03]
Megan McCardell
Join me Wednesdays on YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [86:08]
Bleacher Report Announcer
The Bleacher Report app is your destination for sports right now. The NBA is heating up, March Madness is here and MLB is almost back. Every day there's a new headline, a new highlight, a new moment you've got to see for yourself. That's why I stay locked in with the Bleacher Report app. For me, it's about staying connected to my sports. I can follow the teams I care about, get real time scores, breaking news and highlights all in one place. Download the Bleacher Report app today so you never miss a moment.
- [86:43]
Howie Mandel
The Global Gaming League is presented by Atlas Earth, the fun Cashback app. Hey, it's Howie Mandel and I am inviting you to witness history as me and my How We Do It Gaming team take on Gilly the King Wallow 267's million dollars gaming in an epic global Gaming League video game showdown. Plus a halftime performance by multi platinum artist Travy McCoy. Watch all the action and see who wins and advances to the championship match right now at Global gaming league. That's globalgamingleague.com in partnership with Level Up Expo.
- [87:14]
Bleacher Report Announcer
The Bleacher Report app is your destination for sports right now. The NBA is heating up, March Madness is here and MLB is almost back. Every day there's a new headline, a new highlight, a new moment you've got to see for yourself. That's why I stay locked in with the Bleacher Report app. For me, it's about staying connected to my sports. I can follow the teams I care about about, get real time, scores, breaking news and highlights all in one place. Download the Bleacher Report app today so you never miss a moment.
- [87:43]
Howie Mandel
The Global Gaming League is presented by Atlas Earth, the fun Cashback app. Hey, it's Howie Mandel and I am inviting you to witness history as me and my How We Do It Gaming team take on Gilly the King Wallow 267's million dollars gaming in an epic Global Gaming League video game showdown. Plus a halftime performance by multi platinum artist Travy McCoy. Watch all the action and see who wins and advances to the championship match right now@globalgamingleague.com that's globalgamingleague.com in partnership with Level Up Expo. The Global Gaming League is presented by Atlas Earth, the fun cashback app. Hey, it's Howie Mandel and I am inviting you to witness history as me and my How We Do It Gaming team take on Gilly The King and Wallow 2. 6 $7 million gaming in an epic Global Gaming League video game showdown. Plus a halftime performance by multi platinum artist Travy McCoy. Watch all the action and see who wins in advances to the championship match right now@globalgamingleague.com that's globalgamingleague.com in partnership with Level Up Expo.
- [88:52]
Bleacher Report Announcer
The Bleacher Report app is your destination for sports right now. The NBA is heating up, March Madness is here and MLB is almost back. Every day there's a new headline, a new highlight, a new moment you've got to see for yourself. That's why I stay locked in with the Bleacher Report app. For me it's about staying connected to my sports. I can follow the teams I care about, get real time, scores, breaking news and highlights all in one place. Download the Bleacher Report app today so you never miss a moment.
- [89:22]
Howie Mandel
The Global Gaming League is presented by Atlas Earth, the fun cashback app. Hey, it's Howie Mandel and I am inviting you to witness history as me and my How We Do It Gaming team take on Gilly the King and Wallow267's million dollars gaming in an epic Global Gaming League video game showdown. Plus a halftime performance by multi platinum artist Travy McCoy. Watch all the action and see who wins and advances to the championship match right now at Global gaming league. That's globalgamingleague.com in partnership with Level Up Expo.
- [89:52]
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Megan McCardell
U N D Has the news been getting you down? I'm Megan McCardell and I'm here to help. I'm the host of a new show from Washington Post Opinion called Reasonably Optimistic and it's an antidote to the pessimism that's riddling America right now. Every Wednesday I'm going to talk to people who see a path forward.
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Jonathan Hackett
You know, I am a believer in America and it's worth fighting for.
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Megan McCardell
Join me Wednesdays on YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts.
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