The Team House: Eyes on Geopolitics
Episode: The Future of Warfare | EYES ON GEOPOLITICS
Release Date: April 16, 2026
Host: D (dee takos)
Guests: Eric Ulrich (Lobo Institute, former SEAL), Scott Canino (Lobo Institute, SOF vet), John Hackett (initially present)
Episode Overview
This engaging episode focuses on the rapidly evolving landscape of modern warfare, with an in-depth look at drones, AI, ethics, technological innovation, and the changing face of U.S. national security. The conversation draws heavily from on-the-ground experiences in current and recent conflicts (Ukraine, Middle East, Africa), practical challenges of military innovation, and the nuanced ethical questions surrounding autonomous weapons. The discussion is lively, candid, and packed with firsthand observations and analysis.
Key Discussion Points and Insights
1. Current Drone Threats and Countermeasures
(02:00–08:45)
- The drone threat has accelerated, moving from basic adaptations by non-state actors (e.g., Al Shabaab, AQAP buying DJI drones, 2017–19) to sophisticated, coordinated attacks using Shaheed drones with real-time guidance.
- The defense is lagging behind, with ad hoc or low-tech responses (e.g., soldiers with shotguns trying to shoot down drones).
- Eric Ulrich explains the core defensive options:
- Electronic warfare (EW): jamming or cutting control signals.
- Directed energy (lasers): technologically promising but currently limited by power requirements.
- Kinetic measures: shooting drones, using nets, even trained animals (e.g., eagles).
- Bureaucracy in DoD slows innovation; logistics are tougher for the “tip of the spear” SOF units.
Quote:
"The technology has evolved faster on the offensive side than it has on the defensive side. That's as simple as it gets."
—Eric Ulrich (07:18)
2. Offensive vs. Defensive Drone Warfare & Acquisition Bottlenecks
(08:45–16:12)
- U.S. and allies often waste $1–2 million missiles on $20,000 drones (Patriot missiles vs. drone swarms), highlighting cost and production gaps.
- EW, kinetic, and layered approaches are all under consideration, but the massive logistical challenge persists.
- Eric Ulrich suggests a radical fix: take top SOF and Ukrainian drone innovators, bring them together with open budgets, and implement battlefield solutions directly, bypassing bureaucratic drag.
- Example: Gates’ MRAP program during Iraq—break the system when lives are at stake.
Quote:
"I would take the smartest people in Ukraine that can come off the front lines and bring them right back to, you know, SOCOM headquarters... unlimited funds. How fast can we do it?... you have to clear the bureaucracy. Absolutely. And you have to open up the checkbook. It's that important."
—Eric Ulrich (09:53–11:48)
3. Human-Machine Teaming and the Future of Autonomy in War
(13:25–16:12; 19:48–27:04)
- Scott Canino frames technology as an enabler, not a replacement—AI and drones will augment, not supplant, human operators.
- Discussion on U.S. acquisition processes: special operations units already have fast track R&D methods—leverage them for drone/AI innovation.
- Existing TTPs (tactics, techniques, procedures) and doctrines remain relevant but need augmentation.
- Debate about "autonomous kill chain":
- Eric Ulrich recounts the first lethal use of AI targeting drones by Russian contractors in Libya (~2017–18) and the ethical abyss when humans are removed from decision-making.
- Both guests advocate for keeping humans, at some point, within the kill chain—especially for targeting decisions.
Quote:
"There are ways to maximize the use of what AI can do for you, but still have the proper interruption at the proper times. And personally, I don't believe that you're going to lose a competitive advantage with a 2 second delay or a 10 second delay even... I firmly stand that you have to have a human in the chain."
—Eric Ulrich (22:05–23:45)
- Recognition that adversaries (Russia, China) may adopt fully autonomous weapons with fewer ethical restrictions.
Quote:
"We as the United States are going to be restricted...because we want to be the leader of the free world. We want to set the example."
—Scott Canino (27:19)
4. Technical Details: How Drones Are Designed and Employed
(28:53–33:17)
- Discussion of drone construction: design starts with intended payload, then customizes platform accordingly (lethal, recce, comms, etc).
- Direct-to-cell and mesh networking with drones (incl. implications for countries under internet blackout, e.g., Iran).
- Multi-layered drone operations: drones as communication relays, payload platforms, and as enablers of new operational tactics (e.g., Ukraine’s dispersed, bike-mobile assault teams).
Quote:
"For any drone...they start with what the payload is. Is it a lethal payload? Is it a collection payload? What's the payload? Then you build the drone around that... It just comes down to seven critical parts...and then there's an eighth one if you just add the payload."
—Eric Ulrich (29:05–30:00)
5. Case Study: Ukraine—Adapting Tactics for Modern Battlefields
(33:17–36:13)
- Example of Ukraine: drone-enabled massing from all compass points for brief raids, using battery-powered motorbikes, dispersal to avoid massed casualties.
- Shift away from traditional 40-man assault elements in favor of dynamic, risk-distributed maneuvers.
- Recce drones drive intelligence and targeting, further removing operators from direct risk.
6. Technology Augmentation in Search and Rescue, Ground Vehicles, Underwater Drones
(36:13–44:26)
- Scenario planning for downed pilot recovery using drones for recce, suppression, and possible extraction.
- UGVs (Unmanned Ground Vehicles) are enhancing logistics (resupply), fire support, and are more expendable than manned vehicles.
- Maritime and subsurface drones: critical in modern naval battles (e.g., Russian fleet leaving Black Sea due to persistent drone swarms); underwater drones for mine countermeasures and offensive ops.
Quote:
"You could take half that armor off [a tank] and make it twice as fast and a lot more lethal if you didn't have to have the armor protect people. Same thing with airplanes... If you take that out, now you're increasing the capabilities of your assets."
—Eric Ulrich (44:26)
7. Big-Picture: Aircraft Carriers, Force Projection, and Strategic Vulnerability
(45:43–51:43)
- Debate over the relevance and vulnerability of $13B U.S. aircraft carriers in an era of drone and missile swarms.
- Eric Ulrich and Scott Canino agree on the continued need for sovereign, mobile U.S. force projection—could be carriers or something else able to launch aircraft and munitions.
- Emphasis on innovation in countermeasures, possible unmanned operation extensions, and leveraging electronic deception ("sacrificial lamb" ships).
Quote:
"I absolutely loved and continue to love a sovereign piece of the United States that I can put within 12 miles of any coastline I want on earth and stage and do whatever I want off of it...you cannot replicate that."
—Eric Ulrich (46:32)
8. Systemic Barriers: U.S. Military Budget Gridlock & Innovation Risks
(51:43–54:24)
- Continuing resolutions and political gridlock in Congress are undercutting long-term defense programs (e.g., mine countermeasures disappearing from U.S. Navy toolkit).
- National polarization is now a national security issue—undercutting strategic readiness.
Quote:
"This is, this is, this is a systemic problem, is the polarization of politics...the reality of how the political polarization is playing out in our defense readiness."
—Eric Ulrich (53:50)
- Urgency to harness U.S. culture of innovation, but with federal government support and not restrictive state-by-state regulation.
9. Lobo Institute Training, Innovation, and Notable Projects
(59:08–62:19, 66:24–68:48, 69:03–72:27)
- Lobo Institute (guests’ organization) is at the forefront of teaching, consulting, and innovating for modern warfare—integrating drones, new tactics, and realistic training for SOF and other units in a vast, remote Montana range.
- Scott Canino describes the approach: blending civilian and tactical expertise, support for user-driven TTP development in extreme environments such as winter warfare.
- Highlighted: hands-on, scenario-based learning with an emphasis not just on “how” but the “why” behind tactical decisions, ensuring adaptability for future unknowns.
10. Spotlight: The Fight Against Child Soldiering
(69:03–72:27)
- Eric Ulrich discusses the founding of End Child Soldiering (non-profit, endchildsoldiering.org), directly inspired by witnessing atrocities and recovery in Uganda and beyond.
- Focus: building a “center of excellence” to train the trainers—combatting the global, growing issue of child soldiers via sustainable, replicable interventions.
Quote:
"There is no place on the planet...for the trainers to come and get trained. If you train the trainers, it's an exponential return. So there's nobody really doing that in the child soldiering realm."
—Eric Ulrich (70:38)
Notable Quotes
1. On the Evolution of Drone Warfare:
"The technology has evolved faster on the offensive side than it has on the defensive side. That's as simple as it gets."
—Eric Ulrich (07:18)
2. On the Need for Fast-Tracked Military Innovation:
"You have to clear the bureaucracy. Absolutely. And you have to open up the checkbook. It's that important."
—Eric Ulrich (11:48)
3. On The Ethics of AI in the Kill Chain:
"I firmly stand that you have to have a human in the chain."
—Eric Ulrich (23:45)
4. On American Restraint vs. Adversarial Ruthlessness:
"We as the United States...want to be the leader of the free world. We want to set the example."
—Scott Canino (27:19)
5. On Strategic Vulnerability and Bureaucratic Dysfunction:
"This is a systemic problem...the reality of how the political polarization is playing out in our defense readiness."
—Eric Ulrich (53:50)
Memorable Moments
- (03:01–07:23): Eric offers a detailed, on-the-ground account of early drone warfare tactics and the slow catch-up by U.S. defenses.
- (21:01–23:45): Recollection of autonomous drones striking with no mercy in Libya—a harbinger of ethical dilemmas to come.
- (29:05–30:50): Technical breakdown of “what makes a drone” and how design thinking has shifted.
- (46:32–48:19): Passionate case for keeping some form of floating U.S. “power projection” platform in the arsenal.
- (70:38): Vision for fighting child soldiering with a global, train-the-trainer approach.
Suggested Listening Timestamps for Important Segments
- Countering Drones Today: 03:01–07:23
- Innovation Bottleneck Solutions: 09:53–11:48
- AI and the Future of Targeting: 21:01–23:45
- Ukraine Tactics Adaptation: 33:17–36:13
- Debate on Aircraft Carriers: 45:43–51:06
- Systemic Budget/Politics Problems: 51:43–54:24
- End Child Soldiering Project: 69:03–72:27
Final Thoughts
This episode delivers a candid, granular portrait of how warfare is evolving in real-time—addressing drones, autonomy, innovation, ethics, and the limits imposed by bureaucracy. The hosts and guests offer practical, field-driven insights on both the problems faced and possible solutions, never losing sight of the ethical and organizational questions that shape future conflict. For anyone trying to understand the cutting edge of military technology and decision-making, this is an illuminating listen.
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