Ukraine/Russia, NATO Summit & Iran Going Nowhere Fast | EYES ON GEOPOLITICS

Summary

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The Team House: Eyes on Geopolitics

Episode: Ukraine/Russia, NATO Summit & Iran Going Nowhere Fast

Date: July 6, 2026
Host: Dee Takos
Panelists: Mick Mulroy, Andy Milburn, Jonathan Hackett, Mark Polymeropoulos

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Episode Overview

This episode offers an in-depth analysis of current geopolitical events with a strong focus on Ukraine’s ongoing war against Russia, the shifting dynamics within U.S. politics toward the conflict, the looming NATO summit, and the evolving pressure points surrounding Iran and broader U.S.–European relations. The panel—comprised of intelligence and policy veterans—dives deeply into the consequences of shifting alliances, military strategies, and the unpredictable nature of current U.S. foreign policy leadership.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Ukraine's Position in the War (01:06–19:41)

• Ukrainian Gains and Shifting Tides

  • Ukraine has shifted from defensive to offensive operations, launching deep strikes into Russian territory, logistical hubs, and Crimea.
  • Notable increase in Ukrainian drone and missile production, with strikes causing significant damage to Russian refineries, infrastructure, and air defenses.
    Quote:
    • “Ukraine's mass producing drones, every month they produce more … they're seriously challenging [Russia].” – Mick Mulroy (06:56)

• Crippling Crimea and Russian Vulnerability

  • Crimea has become isolated, logistics routes severed, and its strategic value to Russia severely reduced.
  • Example: Ukraine has repeatedly struck the Kerch Bridge, cutting off major resupply lines to Crimea.
    Quote:
    • “They've decimated the Black Sea fleet … Crimea is now pretty much useless … it's becoming a death trap for them.” – Andy Milburn (14:01)
  • Russian advances, though inching forward (e.g., possibly taking towns like Konstantinivka), come at extraordinary cost and have little strategic value.
    • Russians are sustaining up to eight times the casualties of Ukrainians in these advances.
      Quote:
    • “CSIS estimated that they're advancing 50 meters a day. They're taking eight times the casualties that the Ukrainians are.” – Andy Milburn (10:38)

• Putin’s Escalation Playbook

  • Continued attacks on Ukrainian civilians serve to strengthen Ukrainian resolve.
    • “There's no way you're going to kill more kids and they're going to quit. It's the opposite.” – Mick Mulroy (09:05)
  • Political effects are rippling back into U.S. decision-making, with recent unexpected endorsements for Ukraine among figures previously seen as pro-Russia (e.g., Laura Loomer).

• Russian Losses & Internal Pressures

  • Life expectancy for new Russian conscripts on the battlefield is shockingly low, further fueling internal instability.

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2. U.S. and Western Political Dynamics (19:41–31:43)

• Changing U.S. Political Alignment Regarding Ukraine

  • Split within the Republican/MAGA sphere, with some influential figures now backing Ukraine as the war's momentum shifts.
    • “Winning tends to win over people more than even logic sometimes.” – Mick Mulroy (05:48)
  • Concerns about the reliability and direction of U.S. policy under the current administration, and how unpredictability unnerves European allies:
    Quote:
    • “No one's really sure of what US policy is. And I think that's what's really unnerving the Europeans.” – Andy Milburn (27:42)

• NATO and U.S. Military Posture

  • The U.S. Administration appears divided about troop levels and asset deployment in Europe, with rumors of significant reductions and ambiguity about long-term commitments.
    • “Is the US going to announce significant troop cuts in Europe? What kind of tone is Trump going to send?” – Jonathan Hackett (23:24)
  • Legal constraints such as the NDAA maintain a troop floor, but Europeans fear planned reductions in other vital military capabilities (fighters, bombers, missile defense).

• European Uncertainty

  • European diplomats reportedly check Trump’s Truth Social account each morning to gauge U.S. policy, highlighting the depth of uncertainty.
    • “That's how they determine US policy. That's insane.” – Jonathan Hackett (29:44)

• Congressional Support for Ukraine

  • Continued bipartisan support in Congress for Ukraine, but uncertainty remains around Presidential signature and implementation.

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3. NATO Summit Outlook (52:59–56:51)

• What to Expect

  • Anticipation around whether the U.S. will shift forces out of Europe or simply redeploy within more “favorable” countries.
  • Key issues include European burden-sharing, capacity-building, and clarity around U.S. commitments—especially regarding high-value enablers (ISR, strategic lift, missile defense).
    • “NATO has upped spending across the board…” – Andy Milburn (28:14)

• Turkey and the F35 Controversy

  • Continuing controversy over providing F35s to Turkey while it operates Russian S400 systems.
    • “The idea of giving them the F35 while Turkey has an S400 … is preposterous.” – Jonathan Hackett (24:04)
  • Concerns from Israel, UAE, and Saudi Arabia about shifts in U.S. military assistance and technology export policy.

• General Sentiment

  • European leaders are “holding their breath” over Trump’s unpredictable presence and policy at the summit.

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4. Iran: Ceasefire, Sanctions, and Geopolitics (53:11–59:57)

• Ongoing Tensions and U.S. Policy Ambiguity

  • Skepticism about the long-term sustainability of the current ceasefire with Iran, described as “kicking the can down the road.”
  • Iranian strategy focused on waiting out sanctions, rebuilding military capacity with new revenues, and leveraging proxies (e.g., Houthis, Hezbollah).
    • “If we're giving them $300 billion to reconstruct … that money is going to be going back for them to reconstruct the things that we destroyed, which are military structures, facilities, equipment, resources.” – Mark Polymeropoulos (56:51)
    • “Money is fungible. So even if we release [aid] from Qatar … they still can use the money … to rebuild their ballistic missile capability, their suicide drone capability, and every other thing.” – Mick Mulroy (59:21)

• U.S. Policy Communication Failures

  • The administration has failed to “sell” the Iran war, either to U.S. domestic audiences or European and Gulf allies, resulting in limits on U.S. basing rights and fractured coalitions.

• Gulf and European Reluctance

  • Key U.S. allies in the Gulf and Europe, with publics overwhelmingly opposed to U.S. strikes on Iran, have distanced themselves or actively blocked American operations from their soil.
  • Allies like Saudi Arabia and the UAE are making side deals with Iran, highlighting regional realignment.

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5. Intelligence, Policy Process, and Historical Parallels (44:03–52:59)

• Historical Reflections on Intelligence Failures

  • The group discusses the Iraq War WMD intelligence failures and draws modern parallels to intelligence and policy-making around Israel and Ukraine.
    • “This wasn't like Wolfowitz and Bush were like, ‘Let's deceive the American people.’ They actually thought very much that Iraq had [WMD].” – Jonathan Hackett (46:53)
    • Political will and expectation heavily color how intelligence is gathered, interpreted, and acted on, often creating a feedback loop of confirmation bias.
    • “If you have a political stance … then there's a dual bias … you are asking the questions that confirm that bias from your intelligence agency … and they're finding that information.” – Andy Milburn (48:59)

• The Perils of Policy-by-Whim

  • Trump’s unpredictable style is addressed repeatedly as a source of frustration for career policy officials and allied governments.
    • “Trump literally just goes on a whim. He changes course, changes directions, and it throws everyone into, you know, completely for a loop. And that is what can happen here.” – Jonathan Hackett (63:59)
    • The need for a restored, functional interagency policy process is stressed, though panelists are skeptical it will occur.

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Notable Quotes & Moments

• On European Uncertainty:
  “The first thing that that country's embassy does every morning is check Truth Social. That's how they determine US policy. That's insane.”
  — Jonathan Hackett (29:44)

• On Crimea’s Transformation:
  “Crimea is now pretty much useless … it's becoming a death trap for them.”
  — Andy Milburn (14:01)

• On Intelligence and Policy Failures:
  “Anytime you have a political stance … then there's a dual bias … and the feedback loop is such that as the information comes forward and it's also given that political filter because it fits … without there being conscious deception in that process.”
  — Andy Milburn (48:59)

• On U.S. Policy Predictability:
  “No one's really sure of what US policy is. And I think that's what's really unnerving the Europeans.”
  — Andy Milburn (27:42)

• On Potential U.S. Troop Reductions:
  “It's not so much the troops, it's the fact that … the US has told NATO officials they plan to significantly cut other assets … fighters, strategic bombers, destroyers, submarines, tankers, drones, and most importantly, missiles.”
  — Andy Milburn (27:42)

• On Iran Reconstitution:
  “Any kind of relief for the Iranians means they can reconstitute their military. Period, end of story.”
  — Jonathan Hackett (59:57)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

| Topic | Timestamps | |----------------------------------------------|-------------------| | Ukraine war update, deep strikes, Crimea | 01:06–19:41 | | U.S. and NATO internal politics | 19:41–32:58 | | Congressional support, European attitude | 29:44–31:43 | | NATO summit expectations | 52:59–56:51, 61:24–66:22 | | Iran, Gulf, base access, policy failures | 32:58–44:03, 53:11–61:24 | | U.S. intelligence failures, policy process | 44:03–52:59 | | Broader reflections/wrap-up | 66:22–71:19 |

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Panelists’ Insights: Memorable Moments

• Strategic Caution: "The enemy gets a vote." Mark Polymeropoulos (56:51) warns that Iran and Russia adapt as the U.S. debates, using delays to rebuild and prepare.
• Policy Whiplash: The chaos of policy made “on a napkin” or via social media posts underscores the instability allies perceive in U.S. commitments.
• Direct Challenges: The hosts’ banter around legality and enforcement points to a lack of faith in current administration adherence to law and legacy practice:
  “You keep talking about US Law like this administration gives a f***…” — Podcast Host (63:33)
• Cynicism but Determination: Even as panelists express exasperation, there's a common thread—support for Ukraine’s resilience and emphasis on the urgent need for Western clarity and leadership.

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Closing Notes

• Book and Project Plugs:
  • Andy Milburn’s upcoming book: War in Gaza.
  • Mark Polymeropoulos: Clarity in Crisis.
  • Jonathan Hackett: Iran, Shadow Weapons and Theory of Irregular Warfare.
  • Mick Mulroy: Stoicism podcast The Pub in the Porch.
• Call for Engagement: The show encourages listeners to follow for further updates, subscribe to the newsletter, and provide direct support via Patreon.

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Final Thought

This episode is a sweeping, candid, and at times darkly humorous take on live geopolitics, balancing battlefield realities and political intrigue with sharp, insider commentary. For anyone following Ukraine, NATO, or the evolving Middle East, it’s essential listening for the deeper layers beneath the day’s headlines.

Transcript

[Bretzky]

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[Mark Polymeropoulos]

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[Mark Polymeropoulos]

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[Mark Polymeropoulos]

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[Andy Milburn]

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[Jonathan Hackett]

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[Jonathan Hackett]

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[Mick Mulroy]

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[Podcast Host]

Hey everyone, if you're listening to this, you are not a supporter of the Team house. If you'd like to get ad free episodes, both video and audio, please go to our patreon patreon.com the team house. You get them, you get the episodes early and ad free. You can also ask the guys questions and if you're a team House fan, you can also watch our team House episodes as we record them live. So it really helps the show. We couldn't be anywhere without our Patreon supporters, so we'd love for you to consider subscribing. It's patreon.com theteamhouse and that link is in the description or the show notes down below. Thanks guys. Enjoy everybody. Welcome to another episode of Eyes on Geopolitics. We're here with the whole crew, Mick Mulroy, Andy Milburn, Jonathan Hackett and mark polymeropoulos. Happy 4th to everybody who just passed July 5th. I hope everybody had a safe holiday, ate some hot dogs, didn't blow your hands off with fireworks. It was fun. It was very hot here in New York, but it was still a good time. All right boys, lot happening as usual. I think we should kick off today with talking about Ukraine. We have seen over the last probably couple months now Ukraine hitting deep inside Russia. Russia's fuel supply being severely limited. Word is that they're buying fuel from India to try and keep up with demand. I Did see a couple things where like, we really won't see a big difference until, like it hits, like their lubricants and stuff and like their war machine gets hit a little bit more. Russia also did come out the other day and claim that they took over a town in, you know, Donbass area, which then Ukraine sent out an assault force and basically took it back. So it's interesting what's going on. They see Russia seems to be flailing. Yeah. What do you guys track in here? Let's go with Mark Polymeropoulos first. Greeks first. Greeks eat first.

[Jonathan Hackett]

Greeks eat for. I like that. Greek seed first. This is like a McMillroy ISM, but throwing in the Greeks. By the way, I just have one shout out to Mick. I've been. I don't have it with me. I've been reading that all the Stoicism books, very inspiring. And I started giving them to all my friends. And on a serious note, I have a friend who's going, not government related, he's going through some really tough times and I gave him that book, the Obstacle is the Way, and really helped him. So good stuff. Yeah.

[Mick Mulroy]

Most of the Stoics know me. So this is a book by a friend of mine. Two friend of mine just came out. One that runs the Aurelius Foundation, Justin Seed, and another one who's a professor at Oxford. Yeah, we need these. We need them.

[Andy Milburn]

I'm in.

[Mark Polymeropoulos]

Sorry to interrupt.

[Jonathan Hackett]

No, I like it. I gave it a little plug for the Stoics Ukraine. So interesting in a couple different ways. And I'm going to throw a little curveball in this because the thing that I've been most focused on, which is really weird. So first of all, there's certainly events on the ground and I think maybe you guys can cover them in more, greater detail. What is interesting to me is politically how things have changed in the United States. Laura Loomer just put out a post where she said, I am now pro Ukraine. She loves Zelensky, and she's railing against others in the MAGA world, who she is obviously claiming to be, perhaps correctly, pro Putin, pro Russia. This is the Tucker Carlson's of the world, Megyn Kelly and others. And it's really interesting to see. And I think this actually does have some effects here in the United States because these individuals on the right, whether they're podcasters or influencers, certainly kind of move the way the MAGA movement and the Republican Party go sometimes. And Laura Loomer has the ear of the President of the United States. There's no doubt on that. So she now is a huge supporter of Ukraine. Now you can kind of, you know, throw open your mouth and kind of. Because she's kind of. She has her own issues, massive ones. But it's really interesting. And so, you know, how does this now translate when to get to the next part? There are serious issues ahead in terms of what the US will or will not provide. I think the Ukrainians just asked us if they can co produce patriots. So there's some things coming down the pike in which there will be some U.S. policy decisions. But the thing I'm really looking at D is is this really strange divide in the MAGA movement over Ukraine.

[Podcast Host]

Did she give any kind of reasoning why now she's pro Ukrainian or. No, it was just like I woke up today and that's why.

[Mick Mulroy]

Because it looks like they're going to potentially turn the tides. Winning tends to win over people more than even logic sometimes. I don't know who you're talking about necessarily, but you know, if we get more people on board, even if it's for the right, wrong and different reasons, I'm all for it. Let's actually help Ukraine win this thing.

[Andy Milburn]

Yeah, the, the MAGA right have done a flip not just on Ukraine but on Israel. You know, Israel could do no wrong. And now Israel is the country. I'm paraphrasing Magaworld right here is the country that is leading us down into the dark abyss and has been feeding the President lies. And it's interesting, once that critical momentum starts, it's difficult to identify the turning point in Ukraine or in Israel. But it goes strongly the other way suddenly, doesn't it?

[Mick Mulroy]

So I mean, Ukraine, Senator McCain used to say was not Ukraine. Russia was a gas station with an army. And I think Ukraine said, great, now let's take out the army and the gas station. Right. So that's what's happening right now. These long range strikes by Ukraine into areas, whether they're logistical hubs, refineries, storage facilities, are now deeper and more effective than they were before. Ukraine's mass producing drones, every month they produce more. Every year they'll produce more. They're seriously challenging. In Crimea There was 14 significant strikes in the last 48 hours there. We're not seeing an imminent fall in Ukraine. We're not seeing an imminent, you know, or anywhere close to an imminent withdrawal of Russia. But Ukraine has gone from the back foot to the front foot and I think people recognize it. All of a sudden there's people going, oh, maybe we should support. It's like you can't support. They're teetering on the brink. But you can now, again, I would have hoped that the US Leader of the free world would have been leading this charge the whole time. But if it takes some people coming at the end, fine. But that needs to be translated into direct support. The US Basically now just allows them to purchase things through NATO. I think NATO countries, European countries, countries around the world that are, that want to promote democracy and stability and counter, you know, naked aggression. Like Russia need to throw in with Ukraine, like now, not when they're on the verge of winning now. And this could push President Putin, who's under incredible amount of pressure internally. I mean, right now they've got. I think I saw the stat. If you're recruited, and by recruited, I mean basically conscripted into the Russian army, you got about three week life chain.

[Jonathan Hackett]

Amazing.

[Mick Mulroy]

Includes going through training. Right. Apparently on the battlefield now, it's like 40 minutes.

[Andy Milburn]

Yeah.

[Mick Mulroy]

Like once you step foot on a battlefield, you're dead in 40 minutes. So the whole generation of Russian males are being annihilated. And now it's become almost untenable, you know, because the fuel shortages, everything that's going on in Russia is really putting pressure on Putin. He's going to do, of course, what Putin usually does, which is launch at civilians. Right. We saw in Kyiv last week, I think it was like 500 drones and almost 75 missiles sent at KE. But Andy can tell you he spent a lot of time there. I think that just makes them more resilient. Like there's no way you're going to kill more kids and they're going to quit. Like it's the opposite. They're never going to quit. And this is only going to firm up their resolve to ensure that they save their country. So it's now is the time for the west and the supporters of Ukraine, including the United States, to put more security assistance, direct security assistance into Ukraine with the idea that it'll force, I think, Putin to the negotiation table on terms that are more or actually completely in line with what the Ukrainians want to see.

[Andy Milburn]

Yeah. I mean, the war, it's, it's flipped into a strange dual reality. Right. So Russia's grinding out its symbolic prize in the Donbass. And the town you're talking about the is constant Nivka. I'm mispronouncing it.

[Podcast Host]

I try now. I don't want to pronounce it.

[Andy Milburn]

We used to call it Constantinople, says so it's Constantinople with Nivka on the end, but that's totally wrong. But anyway, it's a shithole of the place. But nevertheless, I mean, I've said that about Pokhrovsk, but the similarity. The point is the Russians are grinding it out as they're taking this territory at just incredible cost. CSIS estimated that they're advancing 50 meters a day. They're taking eight times the casualties that the Ukrainians are. And those figures come from Rusi. So this isn't stuff that we're making up eight times casualties. And they've seized this, you know, after years of trying. They never got Pocros, but they've, they, they may have got Konstantinivka. The Ukrainians are challenging that. And the, some of the videos you've seen online of Russians waving flags there apparently are AI generated. So they may not even have taken shithole town. Right. But if they have, it's at great costs. They just can't sustain it. And so they're grinding this out, but simultaneously they're losing the strategic initiative Ukraine's running. I mean, it's the most effective deep strike campaign of the war. It's a mixed point. I mean, cohesively going after Russian energy sources, reducing production by estimates of 20%, which is huge. Right. Not only that, but look what they're doing in Crimea. And Crimea has a tremendous symbolic value to both sides, although it's probably a bridge too far for the Ukrainians to win back. But they've made it untenable. They've dropped the Kerch Bridge. They've dropped the bridge that. I forget the name, that goes from Crimea to occupied Ukrainian territory towards Kherson, and they keep dropping them. So the Russians there are trapped. And then systematically they've taken out the air defense systems. And so now what they're doing, you can see they're doing these mass drone raids on Russian infrastructure across Crimea, and apparently nothing can move there. And when you're looking, they're hitting, they're destroying the roads. So Russia has Crimea. Yes, but it's kind of a hollow prize and it's becoming a death trap for them. And of course, the Ukrainians are very clever at this. They know that Putin will continue to pour forces into Crimea in a vain attempt to defend it. But they're being attacked asymmetrically from the air.

[Jonathan Hackett]

Hey, Andy, what's the PR value of them actually dropping the Kerch Bridge? Of actually doing it, finally destroying it if they can? I mean, there's, you see a lot of talk of that, you hear, even in town Here in dc, Ukrainian officials saying that this is inevitable, it's coming, and you could see that the public relations value in doing so would be rather massive. And then on top of that, a question for you is. And then what about the kind of. The strategic move as well, and what would the Russian reprisal be? Sorry, go ahead. Yes.

[Andy Milburn]

So on your first part, Putin, Putin has kind of staked his reputation at times on the Kerch Bridge. He keeps going on and on about it. It's the umbilical cord, I'm paraphrasing him, that links Crimea to Russia, etc. Etc. And so, yes, the Ukraine has gone after it. They've made it on and off untenable. But it's strategically, what they've done is they've just isolated Crimea. I mean, totally. Crimea is now pretty much useless. I mean, it was useful for a number of reasons. It was a port. But the Ukrainians have decimated the Black Sea fleet through their kind of Mosquito Fleet navy, which is ironic that Ukrainians don't have a navy, but they've done to the Russians what the Iranians are doing to the Straits of Hormuz. Right. Only they're using unmanned. They're using missiles, drones and they're using unmanned sea vessels. Right. So they've negated Crimea to the Black Sea fleet. They've decimated the Black Sea fleet and now they prevented it from being a logistics hub for the southern front. They've prevented it being anything but just a giant missile and drone and bomb sump. And it's infuriating Putin because, remember, I mean, from 2014, he's banged on and on about Crimea and now it's this black hole. Right.

[Mick Mulroy]

This decision could actually loosen Crimea to do the full invasion of Ukraine, which likely. He would have kept Crimea.

[Andy Milburn]

Yeah, exactly.

[Mick Mulroy]

That.

[Andy Milburn]

As a viable. And the Black Sea fleet and everything. Yeah, you're right.

[Mick Mulroy]

Yep.

[Jonathan Hackett]

Is there a worry of reprisals because this means so much to. To Putin? Well, yeah. If they drop the bridge, is he going to actually go even crazier than he has done? So in terms of attacks on civilian targets, etc.

[Andy Milburn]

Yeah. I mean, but I think, to your point, I think Russia is doing all it can right now. I mean, we always talking about, well, he's going to escalate. Well, what the hell more can you do? You know, he's already. He's already hitting Kiev. He's, you know, I think the consensus is, despite him always threatening to go to nukes, he's unlikely to do that. And, you know, means like meanwhile, an elevator. What's that?

[Mick Mulroy]

Yeah, I said going nuclear would be like throwing a grenade at somebody in an elevator. Yeah, you're right next door, man. Literally right next door. So if you start using nuclear weapons. Yeah.

[Andy Milburn]

And, you know, one thing I forgot to mention, it's so they've destroyed a railroad bridge over. This is all, you know, everything that links Crimea to the mainland Russia or Ukraine. They destroyed the bridges, they destroyed a railroad bridge over the North Crimean Canal. They're even hitting. And now they're hitting ferries that the Russians are using to move military equipment.

[Spin Quest Announcer]

And

[Andy Milburn]

Defense Minister Fedorov says Crimea is being isolated by drones and effectively it's been turned into an island. They've declared a state of emergency. You know, it's going to be interesting. And Moscow is the one that's cut the Kirchbridge rail traffic just because of the risk to traffic going across the bridge. So Crimea's been isolated, it's been negated as being any sort of asset to Russia. And then you've got this deep strike campaign that's gone up a gear. So in just the last few days, the last week since the beginning of July, the Ukrainians have hit 12 Russian substations. The Belograd thermal power plant knocked out, which caused a huge, total blackout. Water disruption across the city. The main airfield in Crimea, Saky, I think it's called S A K Y, destroying Russian aircraft there. And St. Petersburg. I don't know if you saw the film of this massive black cloud coming out of the oil terminal in St. Petersburg, struck by drones. So, I mean, it's a really, it's come to the point where,

[Jonathan Hackett]

and I

[Andy Milburn]

agree with you, Mick, I mean, we should have been piling on, of course, to support Ukraine years ago, but Ukrainians are turning the tide by themselves. Of course, you've still got to win back territory, and that is the long pole for the Ukrainians. They're running out of manpower and that is certainly an issue for them. But strategically, yeah, they have turned the tide.

[Mick Mulroy]

One of the strategic targets we should look at is the Yamal Cross. You're going to hear more and more about this junction of 17 gas pipelines. It's in northwestern Siberia. Once they can hit that, that could have a major, major impact internal to Russia. So I think we should be, obviously providing a lot more security assistance, but we should also be doing. We don't have to be public about it. We don't need to know about it and talk about it, but we should be doing a lot more to, to push Push the, the tides toward.

[Andy Milburn]

Yeah, it's a, I mean, it's a fascinating topic and Iran's kind of eclipsed it. But what has been going on the last three months is it has been extraordinary. And you know, even when Russia, I mean, his operational insight, even when Russia wins in Donbas, it wins nothing. And I'm not just being facetious because Konstantinivka and Pokrovsk are shithole towns. I mean, they are important to both sides, especially Pokrovsk, it's a rail terminal. But for the Russians, having ground Konstantivka, it's a ruins of a small city and it's cost them tens of thousands of lives. And the Russians are exhausted. I mean, they're moving 50 meters a day, which is slower than the British moved in the Somme, and they're staring at tens of kilometers of mined, fortified drone patrol terrain between them and the next objective, which is Krematorsk, which is basically Ukraine's last line of defense in Donetsk. So even on the ground, the Russians are, their prospects. Don't look, they don't look good.

[Mark Polymeropoulos]

Well, you know, just the most recent development, which is the 90 minute phone call that Trump had with Putin Yesterday during the 4th of July celebrations, which is a very interesting development. And as far as I know so far what I've seen, the US didn't announce the details of that call, but the Russian Foreign Ministry did, which I think is also a little bit interesting because that's similar to what was going on between the US And Iran, where the US Was not announcing any of the points from the deal, but Iran was, and it seems that Russia is doing the exact same thing right now, which means the US doesn't have control over the narrative about what's happening being said in those calls. So that's an opportunity for the US Policymakers to seize control of the narrative and actually say what needs to be said publicly. And I believe Zelenskyy was also called yesterday as well. So my hunch is that this, these were calls were made ahead of the NATO summit to get some things ironed out so that way those things can be discussed in person at the summit with other NATO leaders. Of course. And that's why Rut, the Secretary General, visited last week as well, to get those things kind of evened out in person before they're discussed in Turkey coming up in the next few days.

[Andy Milburn]

Yeah, I mean, Russian theory of victory is right now it's purely political because they can't win militarily at 50 meters a day and half A million dead. So what it's doing is buying negotiating chips. Right. But just by trying to seize a little more ground in Donetsk and betting that Western patience runs out before Russian

[Mick Mulroy]

manpower does, and it's backfiring miserably. Right. I mean, his whole purpose was he was concerned about the expansion of NATO and the threat of NATO, even though NATO's never been a threat to Russia unless Russia is a threat to it. It's a defensive alliance. Defensive alliance, right. So because of his invasion of Ukraine, it's now expanded and two countries that managed not to join for the entirety of the Cold War, and now they have. And although they should have been doing it the whole time, but now they are. All the countries are spending more money on their national security and defense. There's, I mean, look at what Germany's doing right now, increasing the size of its, its army, Poland, all across Europe right now. And we're becoming a stronger ally to the United States. I think the United States should recognize that. We can take credit, I guess, if we want to. I think it's largely because of Russians invasion, Ukraine, but what have you. We now have a more substantial military alliance than we did before Russia invaded Ukraine. And Ukraine is going to be the strongest military in Europe by far.

[Mark Polymeropoulos]

Probably it is, especially with Finland joining.

[Jonathan Hackett]

I agree with all that. The problem, of course, is we don't know what the US Administration wants to do because it seems so divided. There's all these reports that came out that Hegseth was about to announce some very significant troop cuts. You know, Rubio and others kind of preempted him on this. I mean, there's this divide between kind of the Rubio, Radcliffe wing, Dan Cain vs. Hegseth and J.D. vance. But I think that, you know, the problem is, and when you talk to European officials, you know, nobody really knows what Trump's going to do when he gets to Turkey. Now he's going there because Erdogan is his buddy, fellow autocrat, and so, you know, he's doing that as a reward, but you just don't know. At the end of the day, is the US Going to announce significant troop cuts in Europe? What kind of tone is Trump going to send? Is it going to be this kind of humiliation? Will it be more? On the one hand, there is a notion, and I don't know if I subscribe to this, that because the Ukrainians are doing better, Trump wants to back a winner, and that the Laura Loomers of the world and Radcliffe and others who kind of have kind of been Feeding Trump the notion that Ukraine is doing really well, then Trump's going to just side with Ukraine because he's just transactional and he believes in nothing. I don't know. One of the other things, too, to kind of think about is we have pressed Europe correctly to spend more our NATO partners. The US still only spends about 2.8% of GDP on defense, not 5%, not what we're asking the Europeans to do. And now we have a huge issue coming up politically in the United States in terms of rebuilding a military which has significant shortfalls right now after the war in Iran. I know they want to do a trillion plus. I don't know if there's political support on either side for this to occur. And so lots of interesting things coming up. But then, of course, DNI are going to have heart palpitations over Trump's turn towards Turkey. The idea of giving them the F35 while Turkey has an S400 Russian air defense system, I think is preposterous. But that's because my Greekness comes through. And, Mick, you're an honorary Greek as well. I mean, the Greek defense establishment is probably going crazy at this point. That's a lot of reason for their turn to the Israelis, of course. But that issue of the F35 is going to be really significant in this summit coming up. We'll see what happens.

[Podcast Host]

What's interesting about the F35, though, is we're still having supply chain issues with it. There's supposed to be a new radar coming out for, like, the block 40, and we're being. We're getting delivered F35s that don't have radars in them, and we're gonna wait until they're ready. So just adding another country, I know they were in it initially. Turkey doesn't exactly make a lot of sense, especially like when we are in need of getting our F35 fleet up to snuff. It doesn't make sense, frankly. And also fuck Turkey.

[Mick Mulroy]

You know, I do think there's a. Putin realizes that there is a split in the Republican Party, like Mark said, but he has two more years of the Trump administration. If you look at Secretary Rubio, I would call him more of a traditionalist when it comes to U.S. foreign policy. And a lot of the traditional Republicans or Reagan Republicans, I would say, may be more pro Ukraine than President Biden was. It's a possibility, and it depends on what comes next. Right. So Putin's got to realize that the chances of it being a new administration, that's more pro Ukraine are high. So he's got two years. And then if it's Democrat or if it's more of a Republican. Reagan, Republican, like I would call Rubio. He's. He's going to be in a bad position, which is great, I think. So he's got to keep that in mind. And he's got a refurbished NATO who's focused on him like a laser beam. So this is not going his way at all. Huge strategic miscalculation.

[Jonathan Hackett]

The.

[Andy Milburn]

It's really. So someone mentioned here that no one's really sure of what US Policy is. And I think that's what's really unnerving the Europeans. I think generally they can live with a diminished or a reduced US Presence, but they need to know how much it's reduced and what that means. And there's a lot of focus on, you know, the withdrawal of a brigade which actually isn't that many people. It's 5,000 troops. Right. And I'm trying to remember. Someone can probably look it up. But the ndaa, right. The. The NDA stipulates that there has to be. I think it's a floor of about 70. It's either 70 or 75,000 troops in Europe. And that 5,000 withdrawal takes that level, maybe 1,000 guys below that. So it's not a huge deal. But legally, the United States has to maintain that troop level unless the law changes. But I think the real issue, and I'm not sure it's covered so much by the media, but it's covered in. I know. What's it. Der Spiegel did a story on this. It's not so much the troops, it's the fact that. That the US has told NATO officials they plan to significantly cut other assets. Fighters, strategic bombers, destroyers, submarines, tankers, drones, and most importantly, missiles. And so that. And not having clarity on what exactly the numbers are, I think is causing the problems. I mean, yeah, the good news story, I agree 100%, is the fact that NATO has upped spending across the board. So, I mean, that's one benefit, one advantage, partly of US Pressure, but mostly of just the threat from Russia that's caused them to do that.

[Jonathan Hackett]

Andy, let me just throw one quick thing in there. It just came to mind because I know you focus on this, too. I met with a senior European intelligence official recently. Got to keep it at that. And they said, literally, they. They every. The first thing that that country's embassy does every morning is check true social. That's how they determine US Policy. That's insane. And so, you know, to me, that was just. First of all, it's embarrassing because that's, that's our policymaking, but that's the level of uncertainty in Europe. Their first thing they do check What, Trump, his 55 tweets, you know, the night before.

[Andy Milburn]

Yeah, I do.

[Mick Mulroy]

I do think there's substantial security assistance for Ukraine that's coming out of the Senate and the House right now, like close to a billion. So we'll have to see how it's implemented. Right. But I, I think there's. It's a bipartisan issue in the, In Congress.

[Podcast Host]

Yeah, but is he going to sign it?

[Mick Mulroy]

I think it's at least part of. It's in the ndaa.

[Podcast Host]

Okay.

[Mick Mulroy]

Which is where it should be because.

[Jonathan Hackett]

But the Ukrainians. I mean, I think Europe and Ukrainians have to just. There's a way to do this and, you know, you plan for the worst. If this comes through, it's great. They cannot plan to receive anything from us, period. End of story. And if they do, so they're stupid.

[Podcast Host]

I think they've. They've seen the writing on the wall ever since. Yeah, ever since last year.

[Jonathan Hackett]

Happens. That's great. And that's. That would be a significant boon. But there's no European that you speak with who thinks, who actually can plan for the US to come. The cavalry is not coming. If it does. Wonderful. You can't plan for that.

[Podcast Host]

And Andy, if you think this administration is worried about being in contempt of Congress, you're wrong with having like 1,000 less troops in the European theory.

[Andy Milburn]

No, I mean, I, I agree with you. My, my point wasn't that the NDAA is. I mean, it is. It is a benchmark. I mean, it is.

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[Jonathan Hackett]

Refreshers contain caffeine.

[Andy Milburn]

You know, a significant reduction below that would be problematic. But my point is that there are other assets that we're pulling out of Europe that are arguably more important than troop strength, that are more of a deterrent.

[Podcast Host]

And then of course, pulling them out. Are we pulling them out because of what's going on in Iran, we need to shift assets there? Or is it just like an overall, like we're looking to tighten our belt because we're asking for $80 billion from Congress for Iran?

[Andy Milburn]

Yeah, I mean, the perception in Europe, I think, I think it's fair to say, is that it's, it's, it's retribution for them not stepping up to the plate in the war with Iran. I mean, but there are, you know, I mean, the positive aspect of this, across the board, self defense and also defense of Ukraine, European nations stepping up to the board, stepping up to the plate. And there's a program, and I forget what it's called, but it's been running since last year, where the NATO is providing it's like 4 to 5 billion worth of billion dollars worth of equipment to Ukraine, but it's bought by European countries and Canada from the United States and delivered by NATO.

[Jonathan Hackett]

It's the Pearl program.

[Mick Mulroy]

I do think it was a mistake by NATO countries to prevent us from using the bases to carry out the Iran. And I'm not saying that they should have to agree with the Iran war, but they cut our argument in half when we say, well, we were there for our own benefit, it gives us a platform to launch. And then they say, except for when they don't agree with us and then we can't. Right. And then you're like, okay, well, there is that. So I'm not saying that they have to politically or militarily support everything that we get involved in, like the Iran war, but when they politically prevent us from using the bases that we're at in Europe, then you start shooting yourself in the foot when it comes to people who believe that we are in Europe and their bases primarily for our own benefit. It does benefit them and it benefits NATO, which we're a part of.

[Jonathan Hackett]

But Nick, I'd push back just on that. In a way, these are European democracies and the European public was vehemently 90, 10, 95, 5 opposed to the US actions in Iran. And so a prime minister in any European country, they want to maintain power and get elected again. And so they're responding to their constituency. And so I hear what you're saying, I think that the way to have done this would have been to sell this better. So this is where the Trump administration deserves a lot of contempt, is that they made no effort to sell it to the American people, nor to our European allies, and frankly, the Gulf. Or to the Gulf. And so, but, but again, if you're, if you're the Prime Minister of the UK Or France or anyone else, look, their public is against this. So by allowing that's.

[Mick Mulroy]

I get it, I get it. But then from a national security perspective, I'd moved to a country that didn't block me whenever they disagreed with my. The decisions that I made. You see what I mean? Yeah, they could block us. But then why, why are we considering that a major hub for US Projection of power if they block us? Because their population's against it, Our population is against it.

[Jonathan Hackett]

I think, though, that when a country, you know, hosts in the United States base, they do have a say on what we do with that base.

[Mick Mulroy]

And then I'd go to another country that didn't block us. When we're in the middle of a war, it's from, it's looking at it from our perspective, they can do it and like, both countries get a choice. They can stop us and we can move. If you supported this war or not, you specifically, but if you were a supporter of this war, I think you would agree. I think you'd say, look, if they're going to block us from using our base when we need it and we're at war, whether we agree with them or not, then we need to be in another location. So when you do that and then you cry because the United States moved to a more friendly country,

[Jonathan Hackett]

I don't know where that country would be.

[Mick Mulroy]

There's other countries, I think, in Europe that would love to host a major hub for the United States.

[Andy Milburn]

Yeah, I think, I mean, whichever way you look at it, Iran, the Iran more exposed something that not even Ukraine had, and that's that the US And Europe, they no longer assume they're fighting the same fights.

[Jonathan Hackett]

Right.

[Andy Milburn]

So, I mean, from the US Government's perspective, Europeans wouldn't escort tankers through Hormuz. From their perspective, it's because it was for a war they weren't consulted on. And from US Government's perspective, Trump's perspective, he won't guarantee troops for a continent, Europe, that he thinks is a free rider. So, I mean, you know, if you're in Magaland or whether you're on the side of the Europeans, the arguments seem internally rational.

[Jonathan Hackett]

And I guess, I guess that goes to the notion we should have sold this better. There should have been better consultation with allies, and that's the way. And because you can make a case for this and because the European prime ministers and presidents will have to do so to their publics, but when it's just, you know, just thrown upon them, then they, you know, that's when there's the backlash. So I certainly get that. I mean, but you look at, I mean, there's all these, you know, the stories came out over the last week or two or two about the Saudis and how the Saudis did not want any part of renewed strikes against Iran again. And you do see, and I think, Andy, you did raise it. There is a huge backlash in the Gulf. And you're going to see a lot of Gulf countries, maybe not the uae, but even maybe them, but others cutting side deals with the Iranians now. And so, you know, so we talk about US Bases, our US bases in the Middle east are certainly exposed right now in terms of first their, you know, the degree in which we can protect them, but also in terms of countries not wanting any further strikes. I mean, the Saudis said no. Is that right?

[Andy Milburn]

Yeah, yeah.

[Jonathan Hackett]

Jonathan, maybe you want to comment on that. Sorry, sorry, Mick. Sorry.

[Mick Mulroy]

No, I was just going to agree with you on the, on the, we should have done a way better job selling the war not only to Europe, but to the United States population. And we should probably stop beating up on our longest standing allies. If you look at the national defense strategy, for some reason it goes after Europe.

[Jonathan Hackett]

Right.

[Mick Mulroy]

You know, in a way that it never has, and, and then leaves countries like Russia off the criticism list. So I get there's a lot of things that we should do better, but that's somebody who's been in the Pentagon. It's also our ability to project power once we're given an order. Right. We don't need to agree with the order. That's my point. So we have to have platforms that we can use. They can't just be at the whim of, well, we don't like the war, so you can't use it because then from a military perspective, you've just taken out that capability because your job is to carry out orders. It's not to debate the efficacy of the policy.

[Mark Polymeropoulos]

We need access, basing and overflight. That's, that's the key. Like from the Pentagon perspective, that's what we need. That's those security cooperation is supposed to provide us those things, especially in The Gulf. That's why we have afcent Air Force Central Command in Qatar when we have fifth Fleet in Bahrain. This, this is access basing and overflight. And if we want to do strikes in Iran, we have to be able to fly over those partner nations countries with their permission. Sure, we could do it without their permission, but that would be destructive to that relationship. So we need to have those deep ties there. And like you were mentioning, Mark, with Saudi Arabia before the war started, Saudi Arabia was inching closer toward a, a warming of relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia. They had sent, you know, their highest level delegation in years. If you remember back a few years ago, Nimr. Nimr was executed, which is a Shia leader in Saudi Arabia was beheaded along with a bunch of other folks that caused Iran to cut relations with Saudi Arabia. So like this was getting repaired very slowly and was getting back toward what the Saudi government wanted, which was a more pragmatic approach to Gulf relations with Iran. And of course they're also secretly negotiating with Israel as well for a future recognition of Israel. So Saudi Arabia is trying to, you know, grow up in the region with MbS in particular at the helm. And this kind of muddied that, that delicate negotiation going on behind the scenes between Saudi Arabia, Iran and Israel. And now Saudi Arabia has to wait for that to settle before they can get back there again. Because they're trying to modernize, they're trying to change the state from what it was, you know, in the previous monarchy. And now that's, that's on hold, which their government does not want. The same thing with the Emirates. The Emirates are trying to do things as well, to change, not just be an oil or you know, an oil and gas dependent country for their economy. And that has also been destroyed. If you look at what's going on with Dubai's tourism industry, it's wrecked. And it's about risk. And do people want to go there and spend their money there? Some will, but not the ones, not everybody. That was before. It's going to take a very long time to build that trust again. And as you mentioned, if we could sell this war in a better way from the very beginning, we wouldn't have this discussion now because those countries would have participated. Just like 1991 when the US went to the Middle east and asked Saudi Arabia and even Syria to join forces with the United States against Saddam Hussein and the Syrians sent forces to fight against Saddam Hussein to kick him out of Kuwait. That was because we sold war.

[Jonathan Hackett]

We had belts then in Policy making. Right.

[Mark Polymeropoulos]

But we sold it to them because you couldn't just show up to Damascus and be like, hey, come with us. Instead, you had to have made a case that it's in your interest. Even though we're not great friends, it's in your interest to come to this conflict with us.

[Podcast Host]

And in that case, Iraq invaded a sovereign country.

[Jonathan Hackett]

But Mick, in your previous position, conceivably you would have been involved in the policy making process saying, okay, there's a run up to the war in Iran. We have to do X, Y and Z to get our allies on board. I'm going to take a trip as the DAS D and I'm going to do multiple stops in the region. We're going to sit down, we're going to prep them for this. They're going to be fully involved in this instead of just kind of, you know, kind of how we were winging it.

[Mick Mulroy]

Yeah, I agree. And I don't necessarily hold it against the politician who has to respond to their public. I'm not even criticizing the decision from their point, but from our point, from the Pentagon's point, then we have to adjust because it is access basing and overflight. If we can't actually carry out an order that we're given because we put all our assets in a country that won't let them use us, then that's unacceptable. You can just take off whether you agree with the war or not. But from the US Military's ability to carry out orders, they have to. So, yeah, we should have definitely sold it much better.

[Jonathan Hackett]

And that would have been a policy process. There would have been NSC meetings and then the action items coming from this would be the, you know, the civilians, the side of the Pentagon and the State Department would start prepping our allies months in advance for this.

[Mick Mulroy]

Oh, yeah, yeah.

[Jonathan Hackett]

And you know, there's a way to

[Mick Mulroy]

do this with the embassy, everything.

[Jonathan Hackett]

Yep.

[Podcast Host]

I don't think actually selling this war would have worked, to be frank. I don't think the United States would be, or the people of the United States would be interested in that. Maybe they could have just broadcast Bibi's PowerPoint in the situation Room a month before we struck Iran. Maybe.

[Mark Polymeropoulos]

I think there's always a way because we, we invaded Iraq in 2003 on a completely false pretense that we sold very well and we were able to get people to join us. So, I mean, it's possible. So, hey, if we do it, maybe they'll come.

[Podcast Host]

I think the information environment is completely different now.

[Andy Milburn]

I Think it's a different world in the fevered atmosphere of post 9 11. I mean, yes, it was. It was 18 months, but it was a different country. Right.

[Spin Quest Announcer]

And.

[Andy Milburn]

And everyone was still 911 focused, everyone suddenly on foreign policy. That focus has gone. That interest has gone.

[Jonathan Hackett]

Mick, Mick, do you remember we were watching in the team house up in northern Iraq, Colin Powell's speech? And we're all like. We're all like, what the hell is he talking about? We must not be read into this line of Iraq.

[Mick Mulroy]

It was all coming out of the two places we were at.

[Jonathan Hackett]

It's wild. What is he talking about?

[Podcast Host]

Yeah, you guys are in northern Iraq and he's shaking. The anthrax file thing used to get

[Mick Mulroy]

called by the White House all the time.

[Jonathan Hackett]

But it was a quick deviation because we did have. Actually, I don't know if we had. I think the other. The other guys did. We could get Turkish porn.

[Mick Mulroy]

Oh, yeah.

[Jonathan Hackett]

On the satellite dish. So we had to. Just a little diversion from Turkish porn to watch Colin palace speech.

[Andy Milburn]

I. I don't even. I. That's an image I just can't shake loose.

[Mick Mulroy]

We didn't watch it.

[Andy Milburn]

Turkish and porn are two words that don't belong together.

[Jonathan Hackett]

Amstel beer. The good old days.

[Mick Mulroy]

We had a lot of Amstel beer.

[Jonathan Hackett]

Yeah.

[Mick Mulroy]

But. Yeah, I just remember when our team leader. I don't know if we name them, but used to get called by the White House on these topics. Yeah. And used to stand there at attention, which he should. I mean, but.

[Jonathan Hackett]

But there was definitely a lot of. What the hell is he talking about?

[Mick Mulroy]

Is there another CIA?

[Jonathan Hackett]

Yeah, someone's got some good shit going on. Not us.

[Spin Quest Announcer]

Yeah.

[Podcast Host]

That's fucking crazy, guys.

[Mick Mulroy]

FYI, well, when it fell, they took us to a lot of places where they said the chemical weapons were. And there was signs all over the place and there was nothing there. So I think, you know, not to relitigate this, but, you know, from our perspective, we were collecting information that people from. People who should know who were telling us. No, it's right there.

[Andy Milburn]

Yeah.

[Mick Mulroy]

You know, and it wasn't. So it's more complicated than the U.S. you know, was deceptive. It's. It truly is more complicated.

[Podcast Host]

I don't.

[Jonathan Hackett]

I wasn't getting wrong.

[Mick Mulroy]

Yeah, we got it wrong, but it wasn't.

[Jonathan Hackett]

The Bush administration knew that Iraq didn't have wmd. It wasn't. It wasn't a lie. We just got the intelligence thing completely wrong.

[Mick Mulroy]

Yes, that's what I'm getting.

[Jonathan Hackett]

But there was. There was no manipulating you know, I mean, it was just, it was just wrong. Now some of the, some of the reporting streams were bullshit and we should have been done better on that. The analysts, maybe I'm putting too much on, on them, but yeah, this wasn't like Wolfowitz and Bush were like let's, let's deceive the American people. They actually thought very much that around Cadwallader.

[Mick Mulroy]

We did too when we were there.

[Jonathan Hackett]

We just didn't.

[Mick Mulroy]

That's what people were telling us that

[Podcast Host]

should know, guys, are we living in the same fucking world right now? Like they pushed it from the minute, Almost the minute 9, 11 happened that we were going into Iraq and they basically molded the CIA to tell them what they wanted to hear. You had analysts that were, you know, fighting up against the, were the tubes, the circular tubes thing. What do you call, doesn't matter. This stuff that actually enriches uranium like centrifuges. I don't know how. Yes, thank you, John. I don't know how you can really say with a straight face that the Bush administration didn't deceive the American people.

[Jonathan Hackett]

I think you can. Every, every Iraqi senior regime official I talked to thought they had wmd.

[Mick Mulroy]

That's what I'm saying. That's where we collect information from. We didn't, we didn't, we didn't have Saddam on the books.

[Jonathan Hackett]

I mean, I did a debrief some, some really high level folks and they thought they had it. I mean it's an incredible deception campaign by Saddam himself. But anyway, this is a separate issue. Yeah, and the CIA failed in this, like analytically we failed. You know, there were certain streams that you put too much weight on and there's, I mean, but it's a, it's a, it's a little more complicated story

[Podcast Host]

when you, and frankly, I don't want to give enough, I don't want to give that much guff. The CIA, because you guys are doing your job and you're supposed to get the information or try to. I guess I'm giving more guff to the administration because they cherry picked fucking evidence and intel that wasn't confirmed and put it in a state union speech about yellow cake in Niger. Like what? You know, they, the fucking American people. Let's, let's just make sure that's, that's, I'm putting that on record, at least.

[Mick Mulroy]

Noted.

[Podcast Host]

Thank you, Mick.

[Andy Milburn]

It's an interesting topic though, I mean, because there's a parallel now, right? I mean if you have the most anodyne approach to this it's if you have a political stance and the political stance was, hey, you know, Saddam's a bad guy, he's disruptive to the region and he needs to go, all right, not, not necessarily a nefarious objective, right? And then you have that. And then there's a dual bias, right? You are asking the questions that confirm that bias from your intelligence agency and intelligence community. And they, they're finding that information because it is there, but they're focusing the collection assets on that. So there's that. And then the feedback loop is such that as the information comes forward and it's also given that political filter because it fits, you know, it fits their, their agenda without there being conscious deception in that process. And it's kind of the same thing that led to the 7th of October, right? You see a lot of conspiracy theories now. Oh, hey, Netanyahu sacrificed the border communities. They knew it was coming, they wanted it to happen. I don't for a moment believe that's true. But that same bias was taking place. Hey, we want Hamas to remain in place because the alternative is the Palestinian Authority. If it's Palestinian Authority, then now we've got to start talking about a two state solution. Hamas, psycho. But on the other hand, they're contained. They're firmly contained. They're contained both militarily and they're contained because we're giving them economic incentives. That was the political stance. And the military, as they were either told to stand down on collection or the collection they produced was filtered to confirm that bias without anyone saying, hey, this attack's going to happen, but let's just shut the fuck up and let it happen. You know, I don't believe for a moment anyone said that. But the information coming up, if it had been filtered correctly, was clearly indicating exactly what was going to happen, right? For 18 months prior to the attack.

[Mark Polymeropoulos]

It's the same with any intelligence failure. Even the 911 situation. I mean, when I was training to be a counterintelligence agent, that was one of the cases we studied was like the 1993 bombing of World Trade Center. And then from that leading up to 9 11, and just the volume of intelligence that did exist that did indicate like this was being planned. It was the resources are being accumulated, people were being positioned, that all existed, but it was just the way that we collected it in that moment didn't work in the way that it should have worked. And it led to an intelligence failure. And I think a lot of intelligence failures are like that, where we look back and we're like, oh, that's the data point right there. But in the moment you can't see it like that because you can't predict every possible outcome and direction that the intelligence is going to lead you.

[Andy Milburn]

Yeah, that's a different, that's, I mean, absolutely correct. That's a different course though. And that's one of the big challenges, right, Is that indications trying to, and you guys know far better than I do about this, but interpreting indications, right. That afterwards seem unambiguous, but at the time were anything but unambiguous. How's that for double negative?

[Mark Polymeropoulos]

It's true. When you get these walk in sources to the embassy, for example, you're going to get a thousand of these guys saying wild things. One of them might be telling you something totally true, but it sounds also wild, just like the other 999 wild reports. And it's very difficult to figure out like which of these was actually credible, especially from a walk in that you have no previous vetting, no previous knowledge of this person. What they, what are they there for? Are they a double, are they a dangle? You know, it's so hard to figure that out, especially if it's like a short term, like, hey, this is going to happen in 48 hours kind of thing. It's, it's very, very difficult to actually figure out the credibility of that individual in the moment.

[Podcast Host]

You guys want to touch on the NATO summit that's coming up a little bit like what to expect. I know we spoke about it a little bit, but what do you guys expect to be coming out of this?

[Mick Mulroy]

Well, there's going to be a lot of talk about what we just talked about is the US Going to redeploy forces from certain countries either back home or to other countries that they're more favorable to, at least at the time. If anything, the US should be, plus enough our capacity in Europe to send a strong message to Putin, but also because the world's an unstable place, part of what we caused, and I don't mean that necessarily in a negative thing, but we're at war in Iran. And right now we haven't touched on Iran too much on this one, but there's a lot of people who believe this MOU is simply a means to replenish the global energy supply to get past the midterm elections and then it's kicking back on. And I know a lot of friends who hope that's actually the case because they really don't like the mou. And I think they have good reason to believe, to not like it. So this isn't over, is my point.

[Andy Milburn]

Right.

[Mick Mulroy]

I wish it was in the sense that Iran would agree with a new nuclear agreement and then that's that. But it doesn't look like they're coming anywhere close to that, and it doesn't look like they're coming anywhere close to relinquishing control of the Strait of Hormuz. I think we're at about lower, lower than 60 ships a day. It's normally around 110, 120. And Iran is making a lot of money selling its energy. So I'm attaching the two because we need to, if you look at our conversation, we need to send a clear message to Russia, and we can do that by presence in Europe and NATO. We need to be prepared for this thing to kick back off in Iran. Obviously, we hope it doesn't. But I don't see an indication that this is headed toward a resolution that's acceptable to the United States.

[Jonathan Hackett]

One thing that I heard, and Jonathan and Andy, curious if you could agree with this, is that there's more than likely for the rest, there's a possibility for the rest of the Trump administration that this is the status quo right now. And it's just plus 60, plus 60, plus 60, whatever. Just kicking the can down the road. And so there's the argument that, okay, after the midterms, the Republicans take a shellacking, Trump won't give a shit anymore, and so he'll go at it again. I'm not sure that's actually true. It could also be that it's just going to stay this way, which is enormously unstable. And in some ways that is because I think Trump has lost interest in this totally. One other quick point on the NATO summit, I think d that ultimately Europe is holding its breath. And if, you know, it's just, it's just, how bad can this be? Is Trump going to make is going to be so disruptive? Let's just, you know, it's holding your breath to get this, get past this. You know, he, there was not even an expectation that he would attend, but of course, Erdogan, he's doing it for his fellow autocratic buddy, but it's just, it's holding your breath and, you know, good God, what's going to happen? How can, how bad can it be? Is there anything embarrassing coming out of this? Because at the end of the day, I do think that, you know, when I was just in Sweden, I saw the head of the Swedish military. I mean, there's a notion that again, it's the idea, I hope America helps. Can't count on him. You know, we're going at it as a, as a, as Europe only. So, you know, we'll, we'll kind of see where that goes. I mean, even as an American, as a patriot like these, when Trump travels overseas, you have no idea what's going to happen. You just, you just pray that it's not going to be embarrassing to us. At least that's my view. And if something good happens, that's just unusual, but that's what you hope for.

[Mark Polymeropoulos]

And also the enemy gets a vote. And that's the thing with Iran right now and with Russia, that we could sit here and say, you know, in the next six to 18 months we can do all these things to prevent or do something to either of these actors. But in the time that we're waiting and planning, they're also waiting and planning. And in particular Iran, if they get financial infusions during this period of time that we're kicking the can down the road, that money's not going to some static account and just collecting interest for them. It's going to be spent on things to rebuild what was damaged. And it's like, Andy, you've mentioned on previous episode that you know, and also you two, Mick, if, if we're giving them $300 billion to reconstruct. Well, the things that were destroyed were not civilian infrastructure. They were military infrastructure or dual use infrastructure that has a military purpose. So that money is going to be going back for them to reconstruct the things that we destroyed, which are military structures, facilities, equipment, resources. They're going to reposition those resources. Those resources are not for purely defensive purposes. They're offensive weapons and structures and facilities and so on. So they're going to be reconstituting the entire time. They're also resilient in learning. They're learning from the mistakes that they just suffered through in the last two months. Meat grinder teaching them new things. They're going to do them differently. They're going to rely more on drones and so on and so forth as far as strategy is concerned and less on people the next time this happens because to them there will be a part two. They're waiting for it, they're preparing for it every day.

[Jonathan Hackett]

So this time period now, I would think that US And Israeli military planners should be concerned that Iran is reconstituting. So maybe if it's the theory that, okay, well, they're going to kick it off Again, post elections. Well, actually, Iran has had time to recover. That's actually a bad thing.

[Mark Polymeropoulos]

Yeah. That's why Hezbollah is number one on the list of stuff to be negotiated to be, you know, hands off, because they're seeing like, well, we need to reinforce the surrogate forces around us because that's going to be a major component of part two. And you can see with the Houthis, just yesterday, 15 government forces in Yemen were killed by this massive Houthi attack. That was, that was actually pretty interesting, if you want to read about the tactics of it. That was very successful. It opened up with sniper fire all over the place. Kind of like a mini Dien bien poo from Vietnam era, where they surrounded them ahead of time and got stuff in there very smartly, which means they're probably practicing that technique to use on larger scale later, which I wouldn't be surprised to see. So. And the Houthis don't have their own economy. You know, they rely on Iran to pay for them to a large degree. So if Iran gets more of that money, they're going to go support the Houthis, they're going to support Hezbollah, and they're going to support forces in Syria and Iraq for part two. That's in their mind. They're like, hey, we are still surviving.

[Mick Mulroy]

That's what's happening right now. And money is fungible. So even if we release the 3 billion from Qatar and we get that's food, then they don't have to spend that much money on food. Right. So it's better that they're buying American goods, I suppose, but it doesn't protect the money. It's still, they still can use the money that they're getting, for example, selling their oil to rebuild their ballistic missile capability, their suicide drone capability, and every other thing that they found to be most effective during Operation Epic Fury.

[Jonathan Hackett]

This is Wyckoff and Kushner's. Like, this is insane. The idea, like the idea of selling it because they're buying US goods, it's just mind bogglingly stupid. And it's this because you have two real estate guys who just think in these ways and that's why we're going down this ride. I mean, I find this to be. I mean, it's an argument which is so easily kind of, you know, dissected because exactly what you said, any kind of relief for the Iranians means they can reconstitute their military. Period, end of story. There's no US Stipulations, there's nothing we can do it just, and, but this is, I mean, you see the president, you see Kushner and Wyckoff keep talking about this, that this is great. American farmers are going to benefit from the Iran deal. Like, my head wants to explode when I hear that.

[Mark Polymeropoulos]

But it's hilarious because they don't even eat corn. I mean, this is just not part of their cuisine. It's like, we're going to send American corn cob barrels over there. Like, what are we talking about?

[Andy Milburn]

I think we can all agree that the ceasefire, the negotiation, it's just become a soup sandwich. But I mean, back to your question about the summit, which I think is a great topic. We started off with it, it was Mark's idea and it hadn't occurred to me, but now it. Think about it. It's really important, I think, you know, that I, who knows what US Goals are? But for Mark, and I'm pretty mispronounced his name. Rutter, Right. The Dutch guy, the heads.

[Podcast Host]

Trump's my daddy guy.

[Andy Milburn]

Yeah. So, I mean, he's, he's gonna, he's gonna want to emphasize the building on the 5% of GDP pledge from the, you know, from the Hague. But he's going to also want to tell the US say, look, Europe's already embarking on this goal, European nations, but he's going to want to secure an agreement from the US Clarity on what exactly is being a commitment to keep a number of these enablers in theater. The troops, I said, are taken care of to a certain extent by US Law, but things like isr, long range strike, ballistic missile defense, air to air refueling, all those things, strategic lift command and control, all of those things are key enablers that the US Provides to NATO that, you know, troops are easy to count. So there's a lot of focus on that. But there are, but again, those are the really significant capabilities that the United States is providing most likely to be used in NATO, short of actual out and out war, and certainly in out and out war. But I mean, the troops are just there almost as a token presence. Let's, let's be honest. So the 5%. And he's going to be wanting to get an agreement, a firm agreement from the US on those enablers. And he's going to want to, I mean, Zelensky is attending, right. So he's going to want to, Russia is going to want to be able to say, hey, here's our commitment, here's NATO's commitment, whether it's continuation of Pearl and then agreements outside that to keep bolstering Ukraine against Russia. I mean, I imagine that those are his goals. Turkey's going to be pushing for the F35s, by the way. I thought they weren't allowed F35s because they have the S400. I thought that's the whole issue.

[Jonathan Hackett]

But Trump said, no, we're going to do it.

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But that's small.

[Jonathan Hackett]

It doesn't matter.

[Podcast Host]

Andy, you keep talking about US Law like this administration gives a fuck about

[Andy Milburn]

that, but that's going to cause problems. A for the Israelis. I know we care about that a lot. D d does, but. No, I meant the Israelis are going to be pissed off about that. But not just the Israelis. UAE and Saudi Arabia who have run into issues on the F35 for, you know, for similar reasons. And

[Jonathan Hackett]

there's something to be said for goals. And so again, the whole bunch of folks here have been involved in policymaking before, whether at the tip of the spear or whether back or both back in Washington. But ordinarily, you go into meetings like this with a set of hopes, expectations, objectives. Trump changed. If you, you know, I've been reading Regime Change. This is the book by Jonathan Swan and Maggie Haberman. It's fascinating because Trump literally just goes on a whim. He changes course, changes directions, and it throws everyone into, you know, completely for a loop. And that is what can happen here. That's why everyone is nervous on these things. We don't know. There might be something, you know, on the plane they're going to fly over Cuttery. Actually, they won't take the Cuttery Force One, which flew over my house the other day, by the way, twice, really. The new Cuttery plane. I was sitting on my deck and I saw this giant 747 flying over me. But, but, you know, we just don't know what, what Trump's going to do. That's, that's just. And that, to me is incredible. I mean, Mick, you were setting up his policy. Can you imagine me at the Pentagon right now in a policy position and you don't know what true social posts or what is, what's going to be from a little Oval Office, you know, session on a napkin, and you're going to get shit rolling downhill to you, and you have to now implement, which can be 180 degrees different, what you were doing literally two hours ago.

[Mick Mulroy]

Yeah, I mean, it's a challenge. We've talked about the need for the NSC policy process, coordination process to restart. It's never too late. Right. Let's do it now and get some of the career professionals back there, but I just don't see.

[Jonathan Hackett]

That's not happening.

[Mick Mulroy]

That's not going to happen. I think Secretary Rubio would want it to happen. I mean, he's technically the National Security Advisor.

[Podcast Host]

If only he had balls, though, Mick, because he doesn't.

[Andy Milburn]

Well, he's.

[Mick Mulroy]

Preon would be great if they're looking for a National Security advisor. I don't know him, so it's not like I'm plugging him.

[Jonathan Hackett]

But we got to clear up that.

[Mick Mulroy]

What's that, buddy?

[Andy Milburn]

They got to clear up the reflecting pool first.

[Jonathan Hackett]

Did you see. Did you guys send it to me? Someone else sent me it, so there was people who made. Was it in our chat? The jello shot?

[Mick Mulroy]

Yeah, the jello shot.

[Jonathan Hackett]

Amazing.

[Lady Luck]

That was.

[Jonathan Hackett]

Mick, that was you. That was amazing. Green jello shots.

[Mick Mulroy]

Friend of mine sent that to me, who's a Trump supporter, by the way.

[Jonathan Hackett]

It's just funny.

[Mick Mulroy]

It's funny.

[Jonathan Hackett]

Yeah.

[Podcast Host]

All right, boys. Anything else? We did it. We did a lot. I never feel good after these conversations, but we did do a lot.

[Jonathan Hackett]

I went. I was on DC yesterday. I went to the NATS. Game started 11am it was about 115 by the time we left at 2. It was hot. It was hot.

[Mick Mulroy]

Brutal. 75 degrees out here in Montana.

[Podcast Host]

I'm jealous. It's been a hot. It's been really hot in New York, too. It's been 100 degrees and disgusting. I was looking at, like, Copenhagen and places like that where it's like, 65 degrees. I'm like, why can't it be like this here?

[Mick Mulroy]

Sorry again, by the way, does anybody

[Podcast Host]

know us playing Belgium tomorrow night, 8:00pm? Yeah.

[Mick Mulroy]

All right.

[Podcast Host]

Yeah. So I want everyone to go and check out Mix. You guys talked about stoicism. He's got a stoicism podcast called the Pub in the Porch. Applied stoicism. Those links are in the description. Andy Milvern's got a great book that's coming out soon. Very excited. He sent me the. The COVID and the back cover. Like a, you know, summary. It's going to be a really good one. He worked very, very diligently on it, I would say, Andy. And I'm extremely, extremely excited for it. Can we say what it's called or no?

[Andy Milburn]

Yeah, yeah, by all means.

[Podcast Host]

I don't want to overstep.

[Jonathan Hackett]

What's it called?

[Podcast Host]

War in Gaza. War in Gaza, 7 October and its aftermath and account from both sides. What do you think? I just spaced out just now.

[Jonathan Hackett]

You pulled a Trump. You got like, a little Brian No,

[Podcast Host]

I got my phone.

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[Andy Milburn]

First, first installments on first. Chapter one is on substack now. It's about the, the lead up to the, the attacks.

[Podcast Host]

It's very good. It's. That first chapter is really good. Incredible.

[Bretzky]

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[Jonathan Hackett]

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[Podcast Host]

Incredible. Because you see what's going on on the ground and the confusion and like, you know, people that want to bring it up to higher but the mid levels are like no, you know, it's, it's an interesting look at it. I'm very excited about it. I'm sure it'll get a lot of people upset, Andy, which is fine. They'll get over it.

[Andy Milburn]

Made a huge effort to make it a very. I'm

[Podcast Host]

already calling. Crazy.

[Jonathan Hackett]

Yeah.

[Mark Polymeropoulos]

Is that BB calling to ask about it?

[Andy Milburn]

Yeah.

[Podcast Host]

When is this going to be out?

[Andy Milburn]

It's not going to be out until the end of the year or early next year. That's the problem with using. Hey, Mick, by the way, I'm going to get back to you on self publish. The after action from Gaza because the Gaza book separate the one I've written. I'm committed to a publisher. I'm going to say good things about the publisher. They've been great. But the problem is that when you submit a manuscript there's a delay for the editing process. It's not just the editing process, but it's lining up to get a slot, I guess, unless you're a really big name. And I'm not a really big name obviously. So yeah, it's at least it's going to be about a six month wait.

[Mark Polymeropoulos]

All right.

[Podcast Host]

So keep an eye out for that. Of course. Your autobiography, when the Tempest Gathers Great book. Check that out. All the links for Andy Substack and the book down in the description. Jonathan Hackett. He's got two great books as well. Iran, Shadow Weapons and the Theory of Irregular Warfare. Very good books. Jonathan of course is our resident smart guy. And Mark P. You have a book, Clarity in Crisis that came out a while ago though.

[Jonathan Hackett]

Five years.

[Podcast Host]

When are you doing another one?

[Jonathan Hackett]

Not.

[Podcast Host]

Okay. So if you want to watch, check out Mark's links is there in the description as well. He's also on Ms. Now. You know Ms. Now, doesn't he? Fucking plugs from us. They should plug us.

[Jonathan Hackett]

I'm on tomorrow morning talking about the straight. I just got a note and if

[Podcast Host]

you want to Support the show, patreon.com the team house and of course the Whitefish Security Summit. Check it out. That link is in the description as well. Guys, a pleasure as always.

[Mark Polymeropoulos]

Hey guys, I want to take a moment to tell you about the Teamhouse podcast newsletter. If you go and subscribe, it's totally free and what it will do is aggregate all of our data, all of our content that we put out. The things that are on the team house, on our Geopolitics podcast, Eyes on things that I write journalistically with Sean Naylor on the high side, anything else that we have going on books, we recommend upcoming guests that we have coming on the show and also, you know, filtering in some fun stuff in there as well if you'll go and check it out. We send it out just once a week. We don't want to spam you guys. It's just a kind of rollup of all of our content on a weekly basis basis. You can find our [e-mail] join again the website for that is teamhousepodcast.kit.com join so we hope to see you there. The link will be down in the description.

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