The TreppWire Podcast – Episode 379

Date: February 13, 2026
Title: Squaring the Macro Circle, The Retail Rationalization, Multifamily Recalibration, & Lodging Capital Rotation

Episode Overview

In this week’s TreppWire Podcast, hosts Hailey Keen, Lonnie Hendry, and Steven Bushbaum dissect recent macroeconomic developments and their implications for commercial real estate (CRE). The team navigates the contradictory signals of U.S. retail sales and labor data, explores the wave of retail store closures, and takes a deep dive into multifamily sector recalibration—highlighting issues like rent control, notable antitrust litigation, and major strategic moves (e.g., Camden’s exit from California). The show concludes with a review of key lodging transactions, including headline hotel deals in Nashville and New York.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Macro Data Disarray: Retail Sales & Labor Market

Hosts: Hailey Keen, Steven Bushbaum, Lonnie Hendry

• Retail Sales Print Missed Expectations:

  • December retail sales were essentially flat at $735B; the market was anticipating a rebound. This stoked worries about softening consumer momentum, especially in discretionary categories (e.g., furniture, restaurants, electronics).
  • Quote: "It reinforced the idea that the consumer may be losing a little momentum heading into 2026." (Steven, 02:32)

• Market Reaction:

  • 10-year Treasury yields dropped from 4.22% to 4.14% as investors braced for potentially weak jobs data and possible Fed rate cuts.

• Labor Market Resilience Amid Conflicting Data:

  • January payrolls were stronger than anticipated (+130,000 jobs); unemployment dipped to 4.3%, but wage growth remains "hot," keeping inflation risks alive.
  • Quote: “You can't really just wave away the inflation risk. And I think that's the part that everyone is still a little bit concerned about.” (Lonnie, 04:27)
  • Major payroll data revisions painted 2025 job growth as far lower than previously believed (from +584k to +181k), with healthcare dominating the positive print.

• Market Narrative Still Unclear:

  • Steven mused on the macro confusion:
    “I have a real difficulty squaring this macro circle. If anything, it feels more like a macro octagon or a hexagon.” (Steven, 06:30)
  • Is consumer weakness temporary, or is a fundamental slowdown taking root? Subtle but widening socioeconomic divides (even among mid/high-income households) could foreshadow more tepid spending.

2. Retail Sector: Real Stress or Rationalization?

Hosts: Lonnie Hendry, Steven Bushbaum

• Notable Retailer Closures & Restructurings:

  • A diverse group of legacy brands announced closures: Eddie Bauer, Francesca’s, Pizza Hut, Red Lobster, and Saks Fifth Avenue.
  • “They just feel like legacy brands to me... this is really a byproduct of how the market is supposed to work.” (Lonnie, 09:46)

• Retail Resilience — Not Another Apocalypse:

  • Hosts reminded listeners of the “retail apocalypse” narrative (2017–19 and COVID-era) and noted today’s closures are more a rational evolution than systemic risk.
    • “This isn't giving me vibes of the retail apocalypse... This is really just a continuation of what we saw during COVID and post-COVID.” (Lonnie, 10:17)
  • Data suggests overall U.S. store closures are expected to hit their lowest in several years (CNBC, 13:52), with healthy strip mall development and expansion by brands like Dollar General, Aldi, and Tractor Supply.

• Spotlight on Strip Malls & Adaptive Reuse:

  • Institutional capital is showing fresh interest in strip malls.
  • Anecdotes about back-filling vacated restaurant and retail locations highlight differences in localized market health.

3. Multifamily Recalibration: Regulation, Litigation & Capital Flows

a. The Camden California Exit

• Major Move:

  • Camden, a top 10 REIT, is marketing its entire California apartment portfolio (11 properties, >$1.5B value) to focus in the Sunbelt.
  • Factors: Political and regulatory headaches, especially rent control, eviction moratoriums, and rising capex costs.
  • “At some level we know, like logic tells us, that these investors are going to go to places where they don't have to deal with those headaches.” (Lonnie, 21:24)

• Implications:

  • "Smart money" is migrating to lower-regulation, higher-growth regions (Sunbelt).

b. Regulatory Pressure and Grassroots Movements

• Challenges for Owners:
  • New York's rent control debate extends into self-storage; rising tide of grassroots/local pro-tenant activism threatens traditional business models.
  • “For being as institutionalized as the industry is, they have not done a great job of keeping some of this stuff off the books.” (Lonnie, 25:08)
  • Bob Knakal's quote: “Distress is simple math. Rent-regulated housing expense growth is greater than the regulated rent growth. Capex requirements are increasing, financing costs are higher, and values are going down.” (Discussed at 26:14)

c. Forward-Looking Solutions & Local Policy Wins

• Policy Moves:
  • Modular and manufactured housing face outdated regulatory challenges; if modernized, could help affordability.
  • Los Angeles’ new adaptive reuse ordinance paves the way for converting obsolete office stock to thousands of new apartments—heralded as “monumental for the city.” (Lonnie, ~31:16)

d. Antitrust Settlement: Algorithmic Rent-Setting

• Landmark Legal Settlement:
  • Major litigation over data sharing/rent setting software in multifamily; operators settled (no wrongdoing admitted, $53M by one firm), agreeing to curtail certain data exchange.
  • “I think the most difficult part... was the fact that the software importantly could recommend how long to keep a unit offline.” (Steven, 32:09)
  • Hosts predict the sector will adapt and third-party data (e.g., Trepp) will fill emerging gaps.

4. Recent Multifamily Deals (Deals & Data)

Host: Steven Bushbaum

• Key Transactions Highlighted:
  • $128.2M Fannie Mae loan for a 465-unit Boston-area apartment (CBRE);
  • $50M financing for a Wilmington, DE property (MF1 Capital, Pearlmark);
  • $58.6M acquisition in Charlotte, NC (Sherman Residential);
  • Naming trends and “rebranding chic” noted with properties like the Renly in Charlotte. (38:34)

5. Lodging Sector: Capital Rotation and Marquee Transactions

• Nashville Luxury Project:

  • Title Real Estate Partners secures $372M loan (Madison Realty Capital & KSL Capital) for the Edition Hotel; hosts note Nashville's strong recovery and robust demand fundamentals.
    • “If you have a big deal, hundreds of millions, Madison seems to be the firm that gets those deals done.” (Lonnie, 39:43)

• NYC Hotel Market:

  • Gencom acquires Ritz Carlton Central Park, marking its third high-profile hotel acquisition in 16 months; prior deals include Thompson Central Park and InterContinental Times Square. (41:32)

• Waldorf Astoria’s Post-Renovation Sale:

  • Chinese owners look to sell after spending $2B+ on an eight-year gut renovation—total costs over $4B, probably won’t be recouped. Includes a broader luxury portfolio divestiture.
    • “Five years behind schedule and more than $1 billion over budget... the most complicated and likely the most expensive real estate conversion ever attempted.” (Steven, 44:41)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Macro Uncertainty:
  “I have a difficult time deciding exactly where I fall in the spectrum of bullishness or bearishness in the economic data... until I start seeing more things break, I think I'm going to hold a bullish line.”
  – Steven, 07:58

• On Retail Cycles:
  “You're supposed to get rid of things that don't meet consumer demand at this point. And so I may be a little less concerned on some of these announcements.”
  – Lonnie, 09:55

• On Multifamily Regulation and Market Logic:
  “Like these are no longer investable assets. They're effectively commodities that have a shelf life…”
  – Lonnie, paraphrasing Bob Knakal, 27:20

• On Policy & Practical Solutions:
  “If level headed, logical people could just sit down in a room... There are solutions available for this without overarching government regulation.”
  – Lonnie, 30:16

• On The Waldorf Astoria Project:
  “If I was going to go buy a property and I knew ahead of time it was going to take me eight years to gut renovate it, I don't know that I have the stomach for that.”
  – Steven, 43:10

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Macro Data Overview: 00:05 – 08:15
• Retail Closures & Sector Health: 08:15 – 19:35
• Multifamily Landscape & The Camden Exit: 19:35 – 24:26
• Rent Control, Grassroots Activism, and Regulation: 24:26 – 31:48
• Antitrust Litigation & New Data Paradigms: 31:48 – 35:44
• Recent Multifamily Deals: 35:44 – 38:37
• Lodging Market – Hotel Capital Movements: 38:37 – 46:08
• Preview: Trepp Research on CMBS Maturities: 47:33 – 49:28

Additional Notes

• Special mention of upcoming Trepp research and training events, including a CMBS maturities playbook and the Trepp Connect conference in New York (starting at 46:08).
• Shoutouts to listeners and industry participants (49:28 onward) and recognition for TreppWire’s coverage in the industry.

This summary captures the full scope and spirit of Episode 379. The hosts offer in-depth, data-driven context for ongoing uncertainty in CRE—emphasizing both risks (consumer cooling, regulation, legal shocks) and opportunities (retail strip mall resurgence, adaptive reuse, capital rotation to the Sunbelt, and hotel sector optimism). The conversation remains candid, lively, and full of real-world examples, fitting TreppWire’s signature analytical yet approachable style.