
Loading summary
A
Welcome to the Tripwire Podcast, the show where commercial real estate meets data and insights. This is a special guest podcast. I'm Hayley Keene with trep, a data modeling and analytics firm for the CMBS commercial real estate and CLO Markets. I'm with Lonnie Hendry, Chief Product Officer. Today we are joined by Chad Lavender, President of Capital Markets for North America of Newmark. Chad sits at the center of the capital stack with real time visibility into how capital moves when markets are under pressure. Over the last 15 plus years, he has closed more than $50 billion in investment sales, recapitalizations, debt placements and JV equity transactions across a wide range of asset classes. Today we're unpacking how credit liquidity and pricing recalibrated during the 2025 maturity wave and what that tells us about risk opportunity and deal flow going into 2026. Chad, we are so excited you're joining us today and welcome to the show.
B
Thanks for having me. Longtime listener, first time, I guess attendee. So it's fun to be on the hot seat.
A
Love it. We're so glad to have you. Well, if you're a longtime listener, then you know, we have to ask you this question. We're very curious how you got your start in commercial real estate and then ultimately how you ended up in this role at Newmar.
C
Sure.
B
Well, happy to walk you through it. I'll try to go quickly. So grew up in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. Went to the University of Alabama. Happened to be there then our worst, I guess the worst four year football record in Alabama football history. But had a lot of fun and probably let me spend a little more time studying commercial real estate. So studied finance with a concentration in commercial real estate which is a great program. Got me a good backdrop in real estate. Had a T shirt business and in college so was selling T shirts. Always been selling stuff my whole life for whatever reason. And you know, my mom worked at the university for 35 years. My dad was like in land brokerage selling timberland and recreational real estate. So I had the greatest parents of all time. They put me ahead of them at every chance they could and really got all the focus being an only child. So that's what makes me so shy I guess. So it was a ton of fun growing up there. So interned in Dallas for a group called rmcro. Knew I wanted to be in Dallas. I wanted to do really high rise office development for whatever reason considering I'd really only been to Atlanta. So I'd never really seen many Many cities with big buildings, but for whatever reason, it fascinated me. So move. Then interned a second summer in Dallas for Harwood International. And right out of the gate we're building the highest rent building in Texas, London, Beverly Hills, a lot of marquee transactions all over the country. And then the GFC hit about as soon as I got started, so I wanted to do transactions and the transaction cycle was closed seemingly for the foreseeable future if you're a developer. I basically begged for jobs all over Dallas and really asked people just to meet me and introduce me to two new people for everyone I met with because I knew they weren't hiring and no one would meet with me if I was asking for a job. So cold called people like Bill Duvall and Harlan Crow and all kinds of people. And I was, I guess ignorance is bliss. When you're young and don't know any better, you call anyone. So they helped me out a bunch and ultimately found a job at ARA selling apartments. And, you know, it's a ton of fun. Learned a lot from Brian o' Boyle at ARA and he was a great mentor. But you know, there was already a full team built out in Dallas and there started to be a lot of discussion about senior housing. And if you look during the gfc, senior housing outperformed any other asset class from an IRR standpoint, rent growth standpoint and NOI growth. So it's a resilient asset class that was pressure tested from recessions and wasn't really GDP dependent to grow your noi. So I figured that would be a fun place to, to really cut my teeth on the brokerage front. And boy, was it a lot harder than I thought. You know, started full commission at 25. My parents told me that was the worst idea they've ever heard, which they were right. But you know, being young and dumb I guess has its benefits. So took the risk anyway and went after it. And we had an absolute blast building the business. Ryan McConaughey is still my partner today. We started it and almost went broke, but we made it across the other side and then quickly the right answer for most people was to refinance because you could see cap rates compressing, you could see nois growing and the recovery really taking hold. With no new supply in the future, we were telling people to refinance and as a full commission broker, that's a quick way to go broke. So we had to figure out how to do financing. So we met with hff, convinced them to let us start a healthcare practice group. There and started doing medical office and senior housing and really focused on the full capital stack. So debt, equity and sales. And a couple years later we're number one in the seniors sales side, number one on the debt side. And our goal was to double our transaction volume every year. We did that until 2020. We moved to Newmark in 2019. I guess when HFF was selling to JLL, we just thought this was the best fit for our team. It's been a blast. So been at Newmark seven years now and I feel like we're just getting started. We've gained a ton of market share. We've built a big business that serves our clients and are having a ton of fun doing it. And we really, we have the most talented people in commercial real estate. And I think times like these you have to hire the best and you have to hire the most talented that have the best information flow, who can see around corners as advisors for clients and get them the best outcomes.
C
Yeah, that was a great intro and there's so many things that I want to dive into on, on your, your path to where you are. We'll maybe get to some of that. The T shirt business is really exciting. I'd love to hear a little more about that. But maybe at the end of the show we'll, we'll div into that some. But you know, I think you, you kind of outlined rocky start. I mean, right? Like in Alabama when your football team's no good. Like people today would not understand that Alabama used to not be a powerhouse.
B
No.
C
Then the GFC starts when you're trying to find a job. And if you're working in commercial real estate, that's what you studied in school. Really tough time when nobody's hiring. I mean like, and when we say nobody, we mean nobody. Like you said, you're like just trying to get lunch meetings to make some acquaintances. But I think you're a great story. And what we've seen with others that we've had on our show is for those that started during the gfc, it actually acted as an accelerant to success in the, in the medium term because you knew what it was like when the down cycle actually happened. And for a lot of people that started post gfc, it wasn't until the Fed started raising rates that they saw any pullback at all in market dynamics. I mean, it was like we had a 10 year run where cap rates went down, values went up, noise grew, everyone was making money and everything was great. So maybe just give me some perspective. On, you know, this latest cycle, you know you said you moved over to, To Newmark In 2019, 2020 Covid happens 2021 stimulus, everyone's doing great. Cap rates are almost, you know, unheard of numbers. Super low values are super high. 2022 the market starts to correct when the Fed starts raising rates. Were there some similarities in that market initially to the gfc? What were your thoughts?
B
Yeah, I'd say there were similarities but there's also a stark difference. There's been building debt liquidity in this cycle that has really delayed or either really, I guess washed away a lot of the perceived distress in the industry. In the gfc, if you remember, there wasn't a lot of liquidity. There were very few banks lending. The CMBS market was closed. Fannie Freddie were there but the bar was high. So if you weren't in housing, it was a pretty tough time to get anything refinanced or anything done. So I think the astounding amount of debt liquidity is so different. I think there is a larger diversity from an equity standpoint. You've had all these high net worth family offices. A lot of groups step in that have seen that see value. So you've kind of diversified the equity pool as well as a lot of the cross border capital that's been really super liquid throughout this cycle.
C
Yeah, I think that that's what we've seen too. It just that to me is the number one difference is the availability of liquidity in the market across the sector. So I think as we said today, are you guys seeing more problem solving deals get done? Are you back to like opportunistic growth deals? Is it a 5050 mix? Like what are you feeling in the market?
B
No, I feel like every deal really is a snowflake. Like every deal has a story of its own. It's so different and people are making decisions for different reasons whether to recapitalize, refinance or sell their asset. You know, every GP or LP has a little different situation. Every asset has a different life cycle. So you know, they're not all created equally. If you look back 24 months, you know, every multifamily industrial deal, you know, had a great story, great trajectory from 24 months ahead and you started seeing their NOI growth starting to sputter. And now that sputtering has continued and people are looking for green shoots to really be front footed, lean into rent growth in the near term on the multifamily and industrial side. We're starting to see that across the country at Least a little bit, which has been fun to have a little bit of positivity, but if you look at kind of the opposite. So senior housing got clobbered in Covid with all the restrictions and everything else and it's outperformed every asset class the last 18 months and it's projected to outperform every asset class for the next 36 months. So we've seen transaction activity explode. Same with data centers like where can you get alpha through operations, not just hope for rates to come in and your cost of capital to get better and cap rates to compress. I think people are looking for thematic stories where they see alpha through operations. So we're starting to see that we're seeing them supply being very tampered really in virtually every asset class in most locations. And we're seeing a crazy amount of investor demand across the board. I'd say we have been in this pricing discovery mode but I think we've seen the bid to ask narrow substantially and we've seen our bov's worst us actually pricing be within our bands. So I think there's enough clarity from the high quality advisors who have a lot of market share in the market to really price assets well, advise clients on what to do or refinance the refinancing markets as liquid as we've ever seen it. Just over the past couple weeks where we've seen the treasury blow out, we've seen spreads come in so there's been a little bit of a cushion and airbag go off to give borrowers some relief and the market some relief of the treasury expansion. So the market's very constructive. We're seeing smart people play it on all sides. I think a trend we're kind of seeing is there's a lot of LPs that are exhausted or they're at the end of their fun life, they need to monetize for whatever reason. And we're seeing a lot of GPs want to stay in for kind of that next run and chance at a promote and they think the asset valuations on their portfolio is the best buying opportunity and they know them. So we're doing a lot of continuation funds, a lot of GP LED recaps and so the transaction complexion's changing a little bit on what we're working on, which is a ton of fun.
C
Yeah, that's the best time to be in the market. I mean I sometimes it's a double edged sword when every property has a story that could be a negative thing. But to the other end of the Spectrum, you know, some of these stories are positive and it actually creates opportunity when you, I think the linchpin and you hit on it is operations. I think the operational alpha is what people are realizing that when you. And this is not atypical. When you get late stage cycle where you're at the top, you get a lot of unsophisticated folks that maybe are raising capital and buying deals, but they don't have the operational chops. And when things start to get a little rocky, they struggle. And those that have operational expertise, this is a great place for them to be. So maybe just give us a little detail on what makes someone in your mind a good operator. Are you guys vetting for that? Are you questioning how does that play out?
B
We're benchmarking them off of their, you know, their industry from statistically, I mean, what makes a great recap partner or operating partner is first of all financial reporting. So how good is their reporting? Most groups have that pretty well nailed these days. And I'd say it's getting better with technology every day. And then I think the fit, just the cultural fit. Do you like working with them? Are they easy and do they have an edge to them? What is their competitive edge in the market? Do they. Are they hotel experts that just do really resort style and they have a great track record of doing so? What is their business plan? So what are the, what are their steps to create value at the asset level? What's their ROI on CapEx that they're going to reinvest in into the asset? So that's kind of the fun part. That's what makes this business great. There's a lot of smart people that, you know, look at the same asset and underwrite it. Every person underwrites it a different way. And there's a lot of creativity. You know, given the amount of data in the market, you'd think that some of that is being commoditized, but it's not. There's no, there's no commodity of operator in today's business.
C
Yeah, I agree with you wholeheartedly. I mean, the data can do the benchmarking and kind of can build a picture, but the operator is what makes the difference. And it's amazing to see. You could have property come online and bid solicited and you know, get 20 different offers and have a huge delta in the price range because some people just know they can operate it more efficiently and they can pay more or maybe they have access to cheaper capital. But I think in most instances that's less of an issue now. It seems like the operational component is very, very real.
B
That's right. And I think it's, you know, the groups who are, understand the local taxing municipalities who understand what they're going to be reassessed at. On the insurance front, we're seeing a lot of groups have a wide variance of what they're underwriting and what they're getting in their own portfolios and then some finance better. So some have a great standing in the financing market and track record. So they get better cost of capital on the debt front which in what enables them to pay a little more.
C
Yeah, it's awesome to see and it's market by market, operator by operator, property type by property type. So you mentioned a couple of, you know, multifamily and the senior housing. I think senior is very interesting just because to your point, during COVID it was really challenged just because of the restrictions and everything else. But if you look at the demographic data, it's poised for a really strong run. So maybe give me some thoughts on that.
B
It's off the charts in 2022, 3 it was pretty tough. Transaction volume was like 2 to 4 billion ish. So very, very muted over the historical average. This year just our team has closed over 12.5 billion of senior housing. So the appetite amount of capital and interest in the space is like nothing we've ever seen. It's really green street and the public REITs and others saying we're going to have 15 to 20% NOI growth for the next three years versus we hope things are going to get better in other sectors. That's a pretty good story. We're seeing a lot of new capital to the space both on the debt side and the equity side. So we've seen cap rates compress quite a bit. They're still pretty materially wide of multi families. You're getting positive leverage and a pretty good year 1 year 2 year 3 NOI growth. So there's a lot of momentum and a ton of capital chasing the space. It is, it is a very fun market to be in.
C
Now those numbers are pretty impressive from your group. I mean that's, that's remarkable and it's, it makes sense if you look at it. I mean I think from a supply perspective, multifamily, broadly is oversupplied but for the senior space there's some supply constraints and demand is really, really strong which is great for pricing. And just the number of people that are moving into senior housing on a day everyday basis is just Astronomical. So the fundamentals are really strong. You know, I think it's, it's interesting, the delineation between like multifamily. A lot of times people just lump it all into multi. But, but there are segments as we just talked about, same thing you mentioned, medical office, it's kind of a subset of the broader office market. And medical office has been really, really strong relative to the, the traditional office. I don't know if you have any color or thoughts on that as well.
B
Yeah, I mean it's been fantastic. You have a 90% tenant retention rate and medical office, your capex is a little lower and you've seen pretty steady eddy rate growth. So it's the medical office ton of demand from the capital side. It's kind of a similar story. You're getting really solid NOI growth. I'd say, you know, not quite as high as senior housing. But obviously I think people feel like their downsides protected a medical office really well with that tenant retention rate. And I think it's for a lot of the same reasons. You have this growing baby boomer generation that's aging. You know, some people call it the silver tsunami. I guess most groups believe that there's going to be excess demand and more need for medical office over time, which we certainly agree. Student housing, we're seeing, you know, a lot of great things there as well. You know, certainly in the tier one schools we've seen really solid rent growth across the board and great fundamentals. You know, I think you mentioned supply on the senior housing front. There's actually going to be less units at the end of this year than there were at the beginning with the deletions going on in the class B C side of the market and virtually no new supply on the horizon. Interestingly, a lot of the new supply is ultra high end, super class A because you have to get the rents to justify building costs today. So we're seeing a lot of 800 to a million and a half cost per unit deals go into the ground or not a lot. But what's getting built is that which is interesting. And you know, until Q4, nothing had closed over a million a unit and we've closed 13 this year over a million a unit. So you're starting to see, you know, people paying the pricing, you know, for the quality and noi cash flow stream.
C
Yeah, that's really great insight. So this is maybe a niche question on the seniors, but on the high end stuff, are those mostly the CCRC like the continuing care retirement communities or
B
so most of those are independent living, assisted living, memory care and you know, most people in the industry call consider a CCRC to also have skilled nursing. So very few of those CCRCs have traded and a lot of those are controlled by nonprofits. Yeah, you just don't see as much action there. Where we're seeing a lot of investor demand is active adult, which is kind of in between apartments and independent living. So it's 55 plus apartments, age restricted apartments. And you've seen NOI CAGR of 4.5% last year. Even when in the Sun Belt when markets in the multisatter 0 to down a point, you still saw a 4 1/2% CAGR average retention rates 80% in your asset. You know, your rent to income ratios are off the charts because you have baby boomers as your tenants who sold a home. So we're seeing a lot of capital, really be interested in active adult market and I expect to see more core capital kind of flow there. We're seeing the Odyssey index, core funds invest across senior housing, but really starting with active adult matriculating into full senior housing.
C
Yeah, that's some really great perspective. We haven't talked about those types of communities on our show very much, but it makes sense. I mean are you in the Sunbelt markets? Are you thinking net in migration, demographic trends of people moving from wealthier states in the north or California moving into the Sun Belt and wanting that active lifestyle? Is that one of the drivers for some of that demand?
B
It is. And I would say, you know, a lot of people call them baby chasers. So they're chasing their grandkids. So wherever their grandkids are, they're like we're coming or their kids are paying for them to come down and pay for their parents. So we're seeing that. But a lot of, a lot of the places and it's really just the in place residents that are kind of aging, they have way more equity in their homes than they ever imagined from the home appreciation. Most of them own their homes all cash and generally they've had a spouse pass away or need the care. So they go into senior housing from a social aspect. They get taken care of, serve meals, healthcare, medicine, kind of all your needs and wants are all there. And there's kind of the full spectrum of the Ritz Carlton to the Hampton Inn. From a rental standpoint too, you can kind of find any product that fits your needs.
C
So we've talked about quite a few asset types and it seems like the overarching theme and this Is what our data suggests too is there's been a pretty strong bifurcation in the market. Like everyone's had a flight to quality, whether it be hotels, office, whatever. What's the story for some of these BB+ type of properties? You know, whether you pick the asset class, whether it's office or something else, is there still strong demand for those in certain markets? Like what's, what's the thesis on the B +B and less than B property types?
B
Yeah, I'd say better pools are smaller, you know, if they're priced right, you're clearing these assets every time. You know, if, if you have a constructive seller, if you have an aspirational seller, it's pretty hard to move the assets. So we're trying to spend a lot of time on the front end underwriting these assets, giving our clients really good advice on what we know it's worth in the market. So we're not out there practicing marketing assets that don't trade. But on the office side we've seen a lot deeper pool and certainly on the multi side there's always liquidity there. Pricing that's widened there quite a bit in most markets. On the B.C. side we're starting to see a little bit of institutional capital formation. Who's FO that are focused on the eight foot ceiling, you know, class BC product just to take advantage of that kind of pricing gap. And office side we're seeing a lot of, a lot of different uses. Whether it's covered land plays, you know, if you're buying a lot of these at double digit cap rates, people are happy to cash flow to see if they're going to keep it office or redevelop into something else. Then on the class A side it's been unbelievable. We've seen a ton of cap rate compression. Our bidder pools are 25, 30d. Half institutional capital I would say have doubled over the past 12 months. Then you're seeing rate growth certainly in San Francisco, Dallas, some in Houston and in New York you're seeing crazy rate growth at the top end of the market. So it's fun to see people making money in office or clients again and people really targeting office, seeing kind of the tailwinds in the market and really a little bit of cap rate compression to get people off the bench to start investing now.
C
Yeah, we actually recorded a guest podcast last week that's going to be coming out and we were pretty heavily focused on office and the takeaway from there was just that now's the time to make some Generational wealth in the office space. If you, if you have some capital and you can, you can handle the carry, there's going to be some really great trades. Because to your point, the, the buyer pool for some of these lower class offices is really shallow and the pricing is attractive. And if you're in a good market with good fundamentals, I mean eventually like you said, either you can tear the building down and do something else or you can cash flow it because the basis has been reset. There's going to be some good opportunity there. So I'm, I'm pretty bullish on office and I think it is interesting because if you looked at the year end stats from our data last year, it seems like office on the whole is back because the amount of origination volume was just astronomical compared to the last couple of years. But you dig a few layers deeper, you see it was heavily concentrated in all class A stuff. Yet several billion dollar plus deals get financed and it was top line heavy. I'm optimistic that some of these markets are going to start seeing some growth. I know in Dallas where we're both at, I mean the Dallas office market's been on fire and I think people are underestimating. So we talked a bit about this on the other episode. But I want to give you a chance to kind of give your perspective since you're in the Dallas metro. Just give me your broad take on CRE and Dallas as a whole. I mean it feels like everyone's always viewed Dallas as a really strong city, but from a CRE perspective now, and I'm maybe a little biased, but it just feels like we're probably the top investable market in the country across all asset classes. But I'd like to get your perspective.
B
Absolutely. I mean when you're seeing all these corporate relocations from the financial sector actually come to fruition. I mean the Goldman building is outside of our office window. So we watch it get built every day and there's rumblings of three or four more equal size projects. I think bank of America has announced and there's a couple more that are about to get announced. You know where you have multiple thousands of workers of high income workers coming to Dallas. You know my, it's amazing. Like the, the run on the schools has been unbelievable to watch because the how competitive is to either try to get your kid in the right school or private school or wherever they want to live and the politics involved. It's been fun to, fun to watch from the sideline but you know, the city's doing Amazing. You know, Dallas is very entrepreneurial. You have a lot of high quality real estate owner operators there and capital base there, very smart money. So they see around the corners before the outsiders and generally tend to do really well. The fact that prosper and all these far out suburbs are now actual suburbs and really built out is pretty amazing to see. From when I move moved to Dallas in 2008, it's amazing. So I think the momentum is going to continue to build. It's such a business friendly place that's ultra entrepreneurial, has a ton of talent to hire in the workforce and people want to be there. So I expect to see it keep on chugging.
C
Yeah, I'm fully aligned with you there. So you mentioned a couple of times seeing around the corners and you talked about your team and hiring the best and brightest and they can see around the corner. So for our listeners that are going to be listening to the show, what are some things that your guys are maybe be seeing that hasn't got the headlines yet or maybe isn't mainstream, but what are those things around the corner that you think maybe the rest of 2026 has in store?
B
Well, I think it's CN where we're seeing like rent growth build or buyer pools build. Like you know we have a buyer recommendation engine that's sharing buyers across for any like kind transactions across other markets. So we're seeing really that data be useful to our advisors. If we're seeing deeper bidder pools cap rates compress in Atlanta for 1980s vintage, it'll automatically cross reference with Dallas and Houston for the like kind asset and kind of pull those buyers and people signing NDAs and touring over. And we're seeing those tour pools widen as well as bidder pools widen. So that gives us more confidence to walk in and advise our, our sellers that hey, here's what you're outcome is going to be pricing, who's going to show up, who's going to tour. You may not have met or heard of this group, but they're over here and we expect them to come to Dallas next. So that's what I mean. It's using all the information that comes and flows into Newmark for our clients benefit to help better advise them so they get great outcomes.
C
Yeah, I think that's some really great insight and I, I know as a, as a product guy myself and technology focused firm, we love seeing people integrate data and stuff into their workflows. I would assume from when you started in the business to now you guys are leveraging tools and Technology and things way beyond what you ever thought may be possible when you first started.
B
Yeah, I think I started with a calculator and a little bit of Excel, so. Absolutely. It's amazing how much is automated, how much easier and quicker it is to like, you know, get the rent roll and your and T12 in your underwriting and have it benchmark off the market data automatically. So it is certainly so much better, I would say. At the same time, the client's expectations, for good reason, have also grown a ton. So we're trying to exceed their expectations, not just meet them with our tech stack and our analytical capabilities. So we're kind of helping answer all their questions without them asking.
C
Yeah, I mean, I love that you talked about that because it's something I think people maybe underestimate at some level in the market is how informed people are generally. Now, it used to be they had to come to you to get the answers, but now they're coming with questions because they're already well informed.
B
Right. Which is good and bad. You got to bring your A game every day and make sure you have the answers if they already have the question. So.
C
So one more, one more, one more question, Chad, and then I want to let Hayley wrap on this, but if you were advising someone today, like what? From an underwriting perspective, what is the most important thing that someone is looking at when they're trying to place a loan at this point is are they underwriting rent growth? Are they underwriting in place cash flows? Like, where is the emphasis place for you to get the best bang for your buck when you're pitching your, your
B
deal well on the debt front? You know, it's certainly in place cash flows, unfortunately. I wish we could get all the debt groups to look to the future. That'd be even more fun. But to some extent you can. It's always asset fundamentals and really industry tailwinds. So what sector you're in and the tailwinds within the micro market or general sector and really what's that group's fit and business plan and really teasing the rest to see if what they're saying is real and if the future is going to be that bright or maybe it should be brighter and they're missing something. So I think it's really just digging in and be an expert on every asset and every market. And that's kind of the fun of Newmark. We have the best people in every market across the country, so we're able to evaluate a portfolio and really give great insights to the clients, both at a more micro level as well as we have banking team. You know that we kind of COVID the macro level as well and really feel like we have a holistic approach for our clients.
C
That's great.
A
Well, Chad, this has been a great episode. It's clear that you are so enthusiastic about this industry and your experience has really shown through. So we love it. To your point about your teams at Newmark and your business, before we let you leave, can you just tell our listeners how they can learn more about your group or get in contact with you?
B
Sure. My contact info is on the website. You know, my wife will tell you unfortunately at work 24 7. So I'm pretty easy to get a hold of and, you know, love the industry and love all the talent and meeting the characters who play within it. That's part of the fun.
A
Awesome. Well, thank you so much for joining us today. With that, we'll close this special guest podcast. Thank you, Chad, for joining us today. Join us later this week as we look at what's happened during the week and how it may be impacting you. If you have a question or just a comment, send an email to podcastrepp.com until then, visit trepp.com for more info and subscribe to the Tripwire podcast with your favorite provider. Thank you for listening and stay well.
C
All right,
The TreppWire Podcast: A Commercial Real Estate Show
Episode 393 – Debt Liquidity, Senior Housing's Surge, and the 2026 CRE Outlook with Chad Lavender of Newmark
Date: April 28, 2026
In this episode, host Hayley Keene and Chief Product Officer Lonnie Hendry are joined by Chad Lavender, President of Capital Markets for North America at Newmark. The discussion dives deep into recent shifts across the commercial real estate (CRE) landscape, focusing on the aftereffects of the 2025 loan maturity wave, changes in debt liquidity, asset class performance—particularly senior housing—and an outlook for transactional trends and operational strategies heading into 2026. Chad shares his career journey, insights on navigating downturns, and how data, tech, and operator expertise influence successful CRE outcomes in today's market.
[01:30 - 06:50]
[07:15 - 09:32]
[09:32 - 13:19]
[13:19 - 15:53]
[16:25 - 22:40]
[23:39 - 26:06]
[26:06 - 29:23]
[29:23 - 32:18]
[32:18 - 34:03]
On Navigating Early Career and Cycles:
"Ignorance is bliss. When you're young and don’t know any better, you call anyone." — Chad Lavender [03:35]
On Senior Housing Performance:
"Senior housing outperformed any other asset class from an IRR standpoint, rent growth, and NOI growth [during the GFC].” — Chad Lavender [04:40]
On the State of Today’s Market:
"Every deal really is a snowflake. Every deal has a story of its own.” — Chad Lavender [09:51]
On “Flight to Quality”:
"On the class A side it’s been unbelievable... Now's the time to make some generational wealth in the office space.” — Lonnie Hendry [26:06]
On Tech’s Impact:
"The client’s expectations...have also grown a ton. So we're trying to exceed their expectations, not just meet them with our tech stack and our analytical capabilities.” — Chad Lavender [31:45]
On What’s Next:
"We're seeing deeper bidder pools, cap rates compress. That gives us more confidence... to walk in and advise our sellers—here’s what your outcome is going to be. You may not have met or heard of this group, but they're over here and we expect them to come to Dallas next.” — Chad Lavender [29:46]
| Timestamp | Segment Summary | |------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 01:15-06:50| Chad’s career journey and entry into CRE | | 07:15-09:32| Comparing today’s market with the GFC crisis | | 09:32-13:19| Unique deal structures and operational alpha trends | | 14:06-16:25| On operator evaluation and the importance of operational expertise | | 16:51-22:19| Senior housing, medical office, student and active adult housing trends | | 23:39-26:06| Flight to quality, class A/B bifurcation, and office outlook | | 27:43-29:23| Dallas market—growth, migration, business climate | | 29:46-32:18| Data/technology in market analysis; intelligent brokerage | | 32:49-34:03| Current underwriting practices and lender concerns |
Chad’s passion for CRE and insight into operational and market dynamics shine throughout the episode. The conversation draws a roadmap for both cautious optimism and strategic action heading into 2026—especially for those willing to leverage data, focus on operational alpha, and target sectors like senior housing and top-tier offices.
Contact Chad Lavender via Newmark's website for further information.
For more on commercial real estate, structured finance, and CRE data insights, listen to The TreppWire Podcast and visit trepp.com.