The Victor Davis Hanson Show

Episode: Sheinbaum Gets it All Wrong and the 2003 Invasion of Iraq in Retrospect
Date: August 16, 2025
Hosts: Victor Davis Hanson (VDH) & Jack Fowler

Episode Overview

In this episode, Victor and Jack tackle recent comments by Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum regarding the United States, immigration, and the fentanyl crisis, providing a historical and critical perspective on U.S.-Mexican relations. The conversation shifts to the retrospective analysis of the 2003 Iraq War, evaluating its origins, conduct, fallout, and lessons. The episode rounds out with commentary on crime in American cities, the shifting political landscape among working-class voters, and listener feedback.

President Sheinbaum’s Speech & U.S.-Mexico Relations

(Discussion begins: 04:04)

Key Points

• Sheinbaum’s Arguments:
  • Criticized U.S. ICE raids and immigration policy.
  • Claimed U.S. and California would not function without Mexican labor.
  • Argued the U.S. fentanyl crisis is due to American consumption rather than Mexican cartels.
• Victor’s Rebuttal:
  • Labor & Demographics:
    • Warns against arguments highlighting one group’s indispensability ("No group wants to say that we are integral…" [05:36, VDH]).
    • Cites statistics: 50% of California births are on MediCal, with a significant proportion from those here illegally.
    • Mechanization and automation in America are reducing the need for low-skilled labor ("We're short plumbers, electricians… but everything is being mechanized" [13:48, VDH]).
  • Fentanyl Crisis:
    • Acknowledges element of U.S. demand but stresses Mexican cartel and Chinese chemical supplier culpability.
    • Cartels disguise fentanyl as less dangerous prescription drugs, spreading fatal overdoses ("They do it as Valium, as Ativan… because it is so fatal" [08:12, VDH]).
  • Mexican Government’s Motivations:
    • Uses the U.S. as a "safety valve" to export unemployed and marginalized populations.
    • Relies on remittances—$63 billion a year—as a cornerstone of their economy.
    • Trade surplus with U.S. is propped up by manufacturing and indirect circumvention of tariffs through China.
    • Suggests Mexican leadership ignores its own responsibilities, preferring to lecture the U.S. ("I don't think it's very smart for you to start lecturing a foreign nation…" [15:34, VDH]).
  • Political Dynamics:
    • Mexico’s favorability towards the U.S. is based on economic benefits, not ideological affinity.
    • Migrant populations aren’t interested in returning, as conditions in Mexico remain poor and dangerous due to cartels and corruption.

Notable Quotes

• "We don't accept what you say, and it's going to come to an end. And Mexico needs the United States… if there was a wall and… there are no people coming from Mexico, who loses on that?" – VDH [13:30]
• "It's going to come to an end. Mexico needs the United States." – VDH [15:34]

Political Shifts and Democratic Party Challenges

(Begin: 23:41)

Key Points

• Teamsters Shift:
  • Teamsters are now supporting Republican candidates, signaling a realignment of working-class political loyalties.
• Trump’s Impact:
  • Broke the Democratic coalition, aligning himself with muscular working-class and minority men.
  • Democratic Party accused of elitism, identity politics, and being out of touch.
  • Voters, particularly minority men, resist being “talked down to” and dislike the imposition of elite progressive policies.
• Performance Politics:
  • Critique of political “performance art” (e.g., public displays by politicians to appear relatable or radical).

Notable Quotes

• "Trump's greatest legacy…he exposed [the Democratic Party] for what it was: a bicoastal elite party with a bunch of billionaires…" – VDH [24:28]
• "Nobody wants to be talked to. Basically, the Democratic attitude...was something like this: 'You don't know what's good for you, but those 10,000 people crossing the border…are good for you. Remember that.'" – VDH [26:36]
• "The locus classicus…is Pete Buttigieg. Everything about him represents…sanctimonious, self-righteous, talk down…" – VDH [29:14]

The 2003 Invasion of Iraq in Retrospect

(Main segment begins: 32:31)

Key Points

• Initial Motivations:
  • U.S. invaded under a mix of rationales: fight terrorism post-9/11, disarm Saddam of WMDs, address human rights abuses and Saddam's alleged harboring of terrorists.
  • Overemphasis on WMDs undermined legitimacy when none were found, though Saddam had previously used chemical weapons.
• Military Success & Occupation Failures:
  • Initial campaign was rapid and effective—"absolutely George Patton from France all the way to the Rhine" [36:22, VDH].
  • Mission failed on reconstruction; poor planning for post-war Iraq and insufficient stabilization led to chaos, insurgency, and rise of ISIS.
• Surge, Aftermath, and Political Impact:
  • U.S. "surge" under Petraeus works militarily, sharply lowering casualties by 2008.
  • Obama ran against the war, but by his presidency, violence had dramatically declined.
  • Obama’s abrupt withdrawal enabled ISIS’s rise.
  • Trump, when in office, focused on rapid, overwhelming force rather than occupation—ISIS quickly destroyed.

Notable Quotes

• "They had argued that the UN had approved [the war], but they didn't showcase it." – VDH [34:10]
• "It was brilliant...and in three weeks they destroyed the government....And then by April, 'Mission Accomplished.' Everybody was happy. And then it was like, well, now what?" – VDH [36:22]
• "And the problem was...a Shia majority country looked to Iran for support. Saddam was a minority Sunni leader but had put a lid on Iran. He'd been at war with him. So we were in this very weird position." – VDH [38:54]
• "If you're going to go in there and you're going to fight and lose all those Americans...then you have this surge to break the back of the resistance…then what happened?" – VDH [44:14]
• "I'm getting to the point as you get older, you don't want any Americans to die anywhere in these places where their heroism is not appreciated." – VDH [47:24]
• "No, because... very quickly [Trump] flipped and said it's not worth it…his whole thing was America is preeminent and cannot be defeated. If you understand where the US Military should be deployed, it should be mostly in a conventional situation." – VDH [55:17, on whether the war should have been fought]

Crime, Policing, and Urban Politics

(Segment starts: 60:47)

Key Points

• Washington, DC & National Guard:
  • DC’s crime epidemic prompts military presence; Democratic leaders privately welcome order but denounce it publicly for political optics.
  • Polls show city residents deeply concerned about violent crime.
• Crime Statistics & Political Cowardice:
  • Discussion on rising crime, controversies over crime reporting, and the racial dimensions of urban violence.
  • Black males (5–6% of U.S. population) commit a disproportionate percentage of violent crimes, but the political left refuses honest discussion, opting for systemic explanations and blaming racism.
• Cultural & Policy Causes:
  • Family breakdown and public assistance culture discussed as root problems.
  • Thomas Sowell’s insight referenced: the black family was more stable, and outcomes better, before the explosion of government programs and liberal policy interventions post-1964.

Notable Quotes

• "The only time...anybody talks about the racial component of it, it's always on the left. And they always say it's racist when somebody wants to address the problem." – VDH [66:47]
• "75% of these families have no male figure. 75%...on public assistance. The schools are run by teachers unions…If you're not going to talk about that, then you create cynicism." – VDH [71:40]
• "Quoting Tom Sowell…he faults white liberals for the destruction of the black family." – VDH [73:52]

Memorable Moments & Listener Feedback

(Segment begins: 74:29)

• Victor shares anecdotes about language, family, and the importance of civility in public discourse.
• Listener feedback thanks Victor for speaking plainly, avoiding coarse language, and maintaining intellectual honesty.

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Sheinbaum & U.S.-Mexico Relations: 04:04–17:41
• Wider Political Shifts & Teamsters: 23:41–31:44
• Iraq War Retrospective: 32:31–59:03
• Urban Crime Trends and Political Response: 60:47–74:29
• Listener Comments & Closing: 74:29–78:43

Final Thoughts

Victor Davis Hanson and Jack Fowler deliver incisive, historian-informed critiques of current events—balancing matters of international relations, war, political realignment, and social policy with memorable candor and illustrative storytelling. Whether discussing the pitfalls of international intervention or the complexities of domestic policy failures, the episode demands reconsideration of conventional wisdom on all sides.