41:I[185,["/_next/static/chunks/3xnt26d00_zk-.js","/_next/static/chunks/2aeejfufo02km.js","/_next/static/chunks/42spz6paskvb6.js","/_next/static/chunks/06x30xgfe6iur.js","/_next/static/chunks/2qm8z4gyuajgj.js","/_next/static/chunks/3jnlvw-emqotx.js"],"SendEmailButton"] 43:I[63625,["/_next/static/chunks/3xnt26d00_zk-.js","/_next/static/chunks/2aeejfufo02km.js","/_next/static/chunks/42spz6paskvb6.js","/_next/static/chunks/06x30xgfe6iur.js","/_next/static/chunks/2qm8z4gyuajgj.js","/_next/static/chunks/3jnlvw-emqotx.js"],"AddToLibraryButton"] 44:I[29721,["/_next/static/chunks/3xnt26d00_zk-.js","/_next/static/chunks/2aeejfufo02km.js","/_next/static/chunks/42spz6paskvb6.js","/_next/static/chunks/06x30xgfe6iur.js","/_next/static/chunks/2qm8z4gyuajgj.js","/_next/static/chunks/3jnlvw-emqotx.js"],"ShareButton"] 46:I[45269,["/_next/static/chunks/3xnt26d00_zk-.js","/_next/static/chunks/2aeejfufo02km.js","/_next/static/chunks/42spz6paskvb6.js","/_next/static/chunks/06x30xgfe6iur.js","/_next/static/chunks/2qm8z4gyuajgj.js","/_next/static/chunks/3jnlvw-emqotx.js"],"SignupCTA"] 3a:["$","h1",null,{"className":"max-w-[22ch] font-display text-[clamp(32px,4.5vw,48px)] font-medium leading-[1.05] tracking-[-0.02em] text-[color:var(--fg-1)] text-balance","children":"July 6th, 2026: Shopify, Amazon, UPS, Walmart, FedEx and PayPal"}] 3b:["$","div",null,{"className":"flex flex-wrap items-center gap-x-4 gap-y-1 font-mono text-[12px] uppercase tracking-[0.1em] text-[color:var(--fg-3)]","children":[["$","time",null,{"dateTime":"2026-07-06T10:30:00.000Z","children":"July 6, 2026"}],["$","span",null,{"aria-hidden":true,"children":"·"}],["$","span",null,{"children":"00:14:56"}],false]}] 42:T505,

Every big commerce name put up growth in the first half of 2026. Rick's question is what it cost them.

Shopify had its best quarter in years and passed $100 billion in GMV, though loan losses at Shopify Capital crept up over the same stretch. Amazon beat estimates and then turned around and spent $44.2 billion in three months on AI infrastructure. UPS is doing something stranger. It's shrinking revenue on purpose, walking away from Amazon volume and booking about $1.2 billion in separation costs to chase higher-margin work. Walmart's real growth engine now looks like advertising. FedEx spun off its freight business and is trying to pull a billion dollars of cost out of the network. And PayPal keeps moving more money while the profitable part of the business sits nearly flat.

The Watson Weekly is sponsored by Avalara. It works with platforms like Shopify, BigCommerce, and WooCommerce, helping teams manage compliance faster and scale with confidence. Learn more at avalara.watsonweekly.com.

None of that shows up in a headline growth number. Rick's case is that the cash flow does, and that it separates the companies actually getting healthier from the ones renting the look of it.

#watsonweekly #shopify #amazon #ups #walmart #fedex #paypal