The Way I Heard It with Mike Rowe

Episode 473: Will Swaim—Don't Follow California
Date: March 3, 2026
Guest: Will Swaim, CEO of the California Policy Center

Episode Overview

In this wide-ranging, candid conversation, Mike Rowe sits down with policy analyst and California Policy Center CEO Will Swaim to dissect the mounting challenges facing California—arguably the nation’s cautionary tale of well-intended policy gone awry. The episode pulls back the curtain on why seemingly robust progressive ideals in governance have led to rising costs, population flight, public sector dysfunction, and a warning for the rest of the country: “Don’t Follow California.” Packed with policy insight, personal stories, and sharp observations, Rowe and Swaim explore the consequences of expansive government, the power of public sector unions, the pitfalls of utopian promises, and the dire need for imagination and honest persuasion in America’s political culture.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. California as a Case Study in Policy Consequence

• California’s Wealth vs. Governance:

  • Swaim calls out the “inverse relationship” between government spending and results, noting that California’s state budget has doubled since Governor Gavin Newsom took office, yet outcomes have worsened.
    — “We are spending 100% more today as a state than we were when [Newsom] took office. And yet the results are simply not there. It's almost like there's an inverse relationship. The more we spend, the worse things get.” (02:38, Swaim)

• Driving Population Out:

  • The exodus from California is not purely political, but driven by cost: “My own four adult children—all gone from California. It wasn't because they hate Democrats… they left because the price of energy here is the highest in the country. Gasoline prices higher than Hawaii.” (03:43, Swaim)

2. Resource Paradoxes: Oil, Timber, and Regulation

• Oil Policy Irony:

  • California sits atop massive untapped oil reserves—it now imports emergency supplies, even from as far as the Bahamas, because of prohibitive drilling and refining restrictions.
    — “We cannot touch this oil. It has been locked under the ground by environmentalists, led by their spokesperson, Gavin Newsom, who is just now starting to understand that the debt has come due.” (06:43, Swaim)

• Timber Industry Demise:

  • Once the world’s largest lumber producer, California is now a net importer due to environmental legislation. Result: devastated rural economies and routine, catastrophic wildfires.
    — “You can only remove dead trees by either harvesting or burning. So we get a choice in California—we've chosen the latter... most of our state seems to burn down annually.” (07:48, Swaim)

3. The Dominance of Government Unions

• Political Influence and Fiscal Impact:
  • California has about 12% of the U.S. population but 25% of all state and local government union members.
    — “These government unions spend about a billion and a half dollars every election cycle... It has just distorted our politics.” (13:30, Swaim)
  • Unions direct campaign dollars and policy priorities, especially in education, public safety, and health, often outlasting governors and drastically shaping the state’s governance.

4. Tax Policy and the Wealth Exodus

• Proposals & Backlash:
  • A proposed “wealth tax” (retroactive to January 1, 2026) is driving billionaires and companies to leave the state.
    — “Even if it passes in November, it's effective backward… When billionaires started leaving, Newsom already has seen this. We've lost more population than the combined populations of several states.” (16:23, Swaim)

5. Signature Failures: High Speed Rail, Homelessness, and Education

• Infrastructure & Spending “Fraud”:
  • Much-touted high-speed rail is years behind schedule, over budget, and vastly reduced in scope—from connecting major cities to only linking two Central Valley towns:
    — “It was supposed to cost $33 billion… now projected to cost over $120 billion... I'm not saying these people set out to run a bogus train system. I'm saying they're incompetent to govern.” (21:38, Swaim)
  • Homelessness: $24 billion spent in four years with no reduction—auditors can’t track the money.
    — “Is homelessness reduced? No, it actually grew in that period of time... outright fraud.” (23:50, Swaim)
  • Education spending outpaces almost every state, yet California ranks near the bottom in results.
    — “We rank 48th. Mississippi, which used to be the laughing stock of public education in America, is now number nine. We pretend to educate our children.” (24:59, Swaim)

6. The Challenge of Doing Business

• Regulatory & Fiscal Obstacles:
  • Difficult to fire even underperforming employees; lawsuits threaten businesses over “speech” rights in the workplace; high mandated wages accelerate automation and layoffs.
    — “Running a business is hard here because the government wants to control your speech on your property… I had to lay off your friends, your colleagues, and you might be next.” (34:25, Swaim)
  • Example: Exemptions and favoritism with the state’s minimum wage law (Panera Bread alleged to have an inside track).
    — “It's the oldest damn story in the world. But in these times, it just feels writ large. And how, how do we gloss over it?” (35:44, Rowe)

7. Cultural & Political Drift: Imagination, Discourse, and Consequence

• Performative Politics over Practicality:

  • Rowe and Swaim lament the rise of “theatrical” politics where symbolic gestures matter more than real competence—citing, for instance, the LA mayor’s absence during a wildfire crisis and lawmakers' refusal to adopt stances on basic civic duties for fear of “the optics.”
    — “There's a real lack of courage… Congress has become like a vestigial third nipple. It's just almost an afterthought now.” (44:24, Swaim)

• Tribalism and Declining Civic Engagement:

  • Americans are increasingly unwilling to even attend events with those of opposing political views, leading to social fragmentation and weakened democratic habits.
    — "Our culture has become one in which people will not attend public events, social events, if they know that somebody with whom they disagree politically is going to be there... I wish I could get the two of you together so you could both have a fight someplace else and leave these civic institutions..." (53:52, Swaim)

• The “Imagination Gap”:

  • Rowe identifies a disturbing lack of creativity in how leaders and citizens approach problems, leading to stale, performative opposition and entrenched failed policies.
    — “It just seems like, if you can start with, look, we want the same basic thing,… but I object to what you're doing because in my view, there's almost always gonna be an unintended consequence that you're not thinking about. Shortcuts lead to long delays. That’s why I’m a conservative...” (60:31, Rowe)

• Need for Persuasion and Consequence:

  • Both agree healthy political culture requires room for persuasion and that, currently, lack of consequence is enabling failed opinions and behaviors.
    — “We have to reincorporate consequences into our social contract. There must be a price to be paid for being that indulgent... It's virtually impossible to happen in a world with no consequence where you can, where fraud is acceptable.” (65:38, Rowe)

8. Warnings for the Nation

• Federalization of Failed Policies:
  • If policies pioneered in California go national under a future Newsom administration, those looking to “escape” may have nowhere left to go.
    — “If all of the policies that these people are trying to escape now become federalized under a Newsom administration or somebody like Gavin Newsom? What do you do in that event? Where do you escape to?... It's now game over in the United States of America.” (18:15, Swaim)
  • Final plea: Don’t follow California—learn from its mistakes.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Doubling the State Budget and Declining Services:
  "We are spending 100% more today as a state than we were when [Newsom] took office. And yet the results are simply not there. It's almost like there's an inverse relationship. The more we spend, the worse things get."
  — Will Swaim (02:38)

• On California’s Untapped Oil and Regulatory Irony:
  "We cannot touch this oil. It has been locked under the ground by the environmentalists, led by their spokesperson, Gavin Newsom, who is just now starting to understand that the debt has come due."
  — Will Swaim (06:43)

• On Performative Politics:
  "There's a real lack of courage… Congress has become like a vestigial third nipple. It's just almost an afterthought now."
  — Will Swaim (44:24)

• On Tribalism:
  "Our culture has become one in which people will not attend public events, social events, if they know that somebody with whom they disagree politically is going to be there."
  — Will Swaim (53:52)

• On Persuasion and Policy:
  "The most important word in all that was persuade."
  — Mike Rowe (65:11)

• Cautionary Closer:
  “For your listeners outside of California, please don’t do this to yourselves. This is not the exit door that you thought it might be. This is not the off ramp.”
  — Will Swaim (49:23)

Timestamps: Important Segments

• California’s Fiscal Explosion & Policy Failings — 02:38–05:01
• Resource Paradoxes: Oil & Timber — 05:01–09:46
• Power of Government Unions — 12:12–16:23
• Wealth Tax & The Population Exodus — 16:23–18:15
• High Speed Rail Debacle — 19:17–23:50
• Fraud in Spending & Education Woes — 23:50–28:48
• How Regulation Hinders Business — 32:17–36:21
• Tribalism & The Death of Civic Imagination — 53:36–57:45
• On Persuasion, Policy, and Consequence — 60:31–67:52
• Final Warnings and Hopes — 62:51–69:19

Tone & Style

Rowe and Swaim’s language is frank, reflective, and conversational, punctuated by biting humor and cultural references (e.g., “vestigial third nipple,” “Don’t do this to yourselves,”). They balance ideological critique with appeals for open-mindedness and imagination, advocating neither resignation nor rage, but persuasion and civic responsibility.

Conclusion

This episode of The Way I Heard It delivers a sobering yet engaging deep dive into the real-world consequences of California’s ambitious and often disastrous policy experiments, presenting a warning for the nation while urging a return to persuasion, civil discourse, and creativity in governance and everyday life.