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Jon Stewart
Folks, I have no problem giving a platform to those delightful companies that we have scrutinized from top to bottom and picked only the best. But here's the thing. I am first and foremost, we are a communicator. We are a show. And as such, we don't necessarily give big ups to other shows. But I'm gonna I promised myself I wouldn't cry. I'm going to make an exception in this case for npr, npr, National Public Radio, and their Up First Podcast. I don't know if you've seen the Up First Podcast on npr. It gives you the three biggest news stories of the day and reporting and analysis to actually understand them. That's why you go to NPR, to actually understand things. And they do it in 15 minutes in the amount of time it takes me to eat an entire pizza. That's right. That's another little piece of information you probably didn't know. I can eat an entire pizza in under 15 minutes while I'm listening to the Up first podcast. Follow NPR's Up first podcast so you can understand what matters and what happens next. It's hard news through a human lens.
David Wallace-Wells
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Jon Stewart
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David Wallace-Wells
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Jon Stewart
Get the unreal college deal everything you need to study and play with select Windows 11 PCs. Eligible students get a year of Microsoft 365 Premium and a year of Xbox Game Pass ultimate with a custom color Xbox wireless controller. Learn more@windows.com studentoffer while supplies last ends June 30th terms at aka mscollegepc. Hey everybody. Welcome to the weekly show podcast back My name is John Stewart. We were off for a week and we are refreshed and healthy and and ready to roll on this Tuesday, June 2nd. It'll probably air on June 3rd. I'm still waiting to see if I'm going to get booked to open for Freedom250 right right before Flow Ry which is now that poor I don't know if you guys saw that the CNC Music Factory guy gave what may be I think one of the great. I don't want to say Gettysburg Address, but he gave one of the great speec sitting on his toilet about how he views the type of performances that may be going on in in D.C. and I just, I I can't urge you enough to find it online and and watch it through because it it rolls through his feelings of performing in front of let's say the dictator of North Korea whilst drinking wine from Venezuela and smoking Cuban cigars. It's, it's something. And for some reason, he is maybe one of my favorite people in the world right now, given that, given that speech. But today's show, we're going to go in a slightly different direction. We're going to talk to one of my favorite sort of utility players in the world of breaking down all the different events and threats that may be looming on our horizon. He's an existentialist, as you could tell from the title of his bestseller, the Uninhabitable Earth Life After Warming. But he's recently, I've just really enjoyed a lot of his columns that range on a variety of topics from the Middle east to AI to all those different things. So I haven't talked to him in a little while and I'm excited to talk to him again. Let's just, let's just bring them on in. David Wallace Wells is joining us today. David Wallace Wells, one of my favorite writers, writer for the New York Times, OP Columnist, New York Times magazine, author, the bestseller the Uninhabitable Earth Life After Warming. But you have been expanding, David, your, your writing platforms. So here's what we're going to do today. This is our task for today.
David Wallace-Wells
David, tell me.
Jon Stewart
I was convinced that you thought global warming was the existential threat to humankind. I now believe. David Wallace Wells, and you can tell me if this true or not, that you've expanded your extinction events into AI or perhaps the Middle East. So today we are going to go through where you believe our fatal mistake will come from and destroy the entirety of the planet. Are you still in the mindset that in your hierarchy of extinction events, is, is climate still the top of the list or are you finding other existential threats underneath it that you want to explore?
David Wallace-Wells
You know, I wouldn't call any of these things extinction events. Actually, I think, you know, no matter what happens, they're going to be billions of people living on the planet, probably most of them living relatively normal lives. But I do think we have a bundle of existential challenges in the sense of challenges that are revealing the meaning of our existence. And on that, I'm still pretty worried about warming. We could talk about that. But there are some near term challenges too, which may be looming a bit larger for, you know, your listeners.
Jon Stewart
Let's do that. Let's. First of all, thank you for saying we have listeners, that that's meaningful. Let me, let me. All right, so we'll, we'll start with that. We'll start with near term challenges and then we'll, we'll go to the long term challenges. So let's pop in with near term challenges. Who's in the, the, the pole position for near term challenges for humankind?
David Wallace-Wells
Well, we're dealing with a war in the Middle east that was needless and elective and I think really poorly conceived and which has scrambled an awful lot of geopolitics and done a lot of damage to America's standing in the world and made the future seem a whole lot more, a whole lot less stable than it did even a year ago when we still had Donald Trump in office. But, you know, we weren't having an oil and gas supply crisis. We weren't having a fertilizer crisis on the onset of Growing Season. We weren't having shortages of, you know, aluminum to make Diet Coke cans and helium to run MRI machines and, you know, plastics to make condoms to deliver to the developing world. So I think that, you know, over the last six months, that's the thing that has introduced itself most dramatically, the war neuron. Totally needless in my view, totally ill defined and I think catastrophic and revealing on a number of different levels.
Jon Stewart
Let me, let's tease that apart a little bit because that, that's interesting to me. It felt like the world has always had problems, but there was a relative amount of stability. It's, it seems very clear that in the last few years, and maybe we'll start it with Russia's invasion of Ukraine or maybe even their occupation of Crimea, that the world order was about to go through a bit of a reset, that we were going to be re choosing who are the allied powers and who are the Axis powers. And is America aligning with the Axis powers? Are we, Is, is that what this Iran war represents?
David Wallace-Wells
I mean, you know, that, that famous skit from some British comedy show where it's like two Nazi soldiers looking at each other and going, are we the baddies? I do, I do think, you know, I don't want to underestimate the villainy of Iran. That regime has been brutal for many decades. It is certainly not a place that I would want to live. I don't, I think very few Americans would want to live there. But that's not the same thing as saying that that bad behavior justifies military, regular military action against essentially non, non existent nuclear threats. In my view, and especially so poorly thought through that now the result of this conflict has been, I think, a pretty clear humiliation for the American military and a pretty clear elevation in global status for Iran not to Mention, you know, the entire global economy being put into a kind of a vice such that we're all now, all 8 billion of us on the planet dependent on, you know, these, these two kind of mad men, one of whom is running America and.
Jon Stewart
Right.
David Wallace-Wells
Many of. Many more than one running around. But I'm coming to some kind of rational conclusion and rational exit from this conflict, which is. Is sort of hard to imagine, or to the extent that we can imagine it, it's not going to solve all the problems that the conflict itself caused.
Jon Stewart
And do you think that the, the conflict. You know, I'm always interested in what country's misbehavior rises to the level of intervention. You know, Russia's behavior, invading countries, threatening Europe with energy shortages, all these other things. That rises to the level of, well, maybe we'll help the people under attack with some money and some missiles, but Iran's behavior that we must intervene there immediately, Israel's behavior of bombing. Not only do we not intervene, we. We give them the materials to do it. Saudi Arabia, their behavior can be abhorrent in the human rights arena. They're our allies. It's very hard to find a consistent through line morally.
David Wallace-Wells
Well, I mean, I don't think that this administration is applying a moral test at all. I think the purpose of this war wasn't even strategic. I don't even think, you know, they now are telling us that the goal of this war was to eliminate Iran's nuclear weapons program, which, you know, everyone who looked at that closely said had been badly damaged in the attacks last year, was pretty far from posing an imminent threat. I think you have to look at this not as a strategic choice by the Trump administration, but an effort to project power without responsibility. And that's basically a through line that I think you've seen through the second Trump administration. You know, we had this big document that they put together, the Pentagon, which declared that thing, you know, the Don Row doctrine, which a lot of people interpreted as a, as this, you know, a kind of plan for America to retreat from its rivalry with China in particular and focus on dominating the Western Hemisphere. But I think that's a little bit of a misreading. And when you look at, you know, what we did in, in Venezuela, what we've done in the Caribbean, what we're now doing in Iran, I think that Trump basically just wants to play the role of a 19th century Imperial power where he gets to do what he wants. He doesn't have to own any of the damage that he creates elsewhere. And he mostly wants the rest of the world to kind of cower in fear, intimidated by. And that's why the Iran war is such a significant event, because even a week beforehand, most military analysts would have said this is probably strategically unwise. But the US Is going to. Absolutely. But the US Is going to absolutely destroy Iran in this, in this conflict. You know, what it would lead to, who knows Whether it unleashes chaos in the region, who knows? But this is going to be an obvious American show of dominance. And we have done a lot of damage to their military facilities. We've also, you know, killed some schoolgirls and, and done damage to a lot of civilian infrastructure, hospitals and universities in ways that used to be casually called war crimes, you know. War crimes, yes, casually. But the actual, like, military conflict has not been in any meaningful way won by the United States. In fact, I think you'd have to say that it's been lost. If anything, we are now in a weaker bargaining position than we were when it started. Iran has demonstrated its power and control over one of the central economic pathways in the world, the Strait of Hormuz. And they've done that in a way that tells a lot of really interesting stories about the near term geopolitics. In an age of an energy transition, in an age of drone warfare and, and in an age of declining American power. I think this is really, really significant. You know, when you look at what happened, not just what's happened, not just in Iran, but what has happened in Ukraine over the last few years, and indeed what happened when the US Tried to go to war with the Houthis last year. We've seen a complete rewriting of the script of conflicts involving superpowers and lesser powers. You know, we used to think, okay, maybe the US Will bungle its way in Iraq and Afghanistan. But, like, we can be clear that the military advantage there lies with the superpower. When Russia invaded Ukraine, it looked somewhat similar, but Ukraine was able to respond by essentially standing up an entirely new drone infrastructure, drone production system that then changed the logic of war and has allowed them to at least fight the Russians to a standstill and then over the last year, actually regain territory from the Russians. This is a completely new kind of war in Ukraine. 70 to 80% of casualties are now the result of drones, not soldiers. They've had a number of episodes where one army or the other has taken a position exclusively with robots and drones. And we're now seeing something similar play out in Iran, which is in which, you know, Americans may be able to shoot down an Iranian drone, but it's going to cost us, you know, a $20 million missile. And that drone might have cost them $10,000, which means they just have an incredible natural advantage. And what that means going forward, I think is really complicated. If we had all assumed a few years ago that, you know, superpowers may value the life of their soldiers so highly that they were reluctant to get into war, but if they got into war, they would really kick ass. Now we're in a situation where it's not even clear that in conflicts between the world's most powerful militaries and obviously lesser adversaries, that the powerful militaries have a meaningful advantage. And that opens up huge questions about America's, you know, rivalry with China, about our standing in the world, etc.
Jon Stewart
But, David, how. How in God's name have we not
David Wallace-Wells
learned that over, you know, over the last 30 years?
Jon Stewart
Forget about the last 30 years. The last 70 years, since World War II. You know, I think back to Vietnam, and the big lesson of Vietnam was, it doesn't matter. You can carpet bomb a country, you can napalm it, you can destroy the village to save the village, you have the military advantage. But when a country is fighting for its own territory, its own sovereignty, you don't necessarily have an advantage if you are the invader or the occupier, even if you have a military that has tremendous superiority. What you were just saying about Iran, forget about drones, obviously that was a different technology. They would say about tunnels or that, you know, tunnels are the new way of fighting warfare that humble the great superpowers. Vietnam was the lesson that should have humbled us in terms of the way that we deploy our military. And for a moment, it did. And then we pushed Saddam Hussein out of Kuwait in, you know, a few weeks, and then we invaded in a few days, and we thought, oh, we're back. How is it that we don't learn that lesson?
David Wallace-Wells
Well, we. We told ourselves in that period that we had found a technological solution to the problem of Vietnam, which is that we were going to fight wars remotely. We were going to fight them from the sky with targeted smart bombs, and we were going to deploy soldiers on the ground to the extent that it was necessary, only after we had completely obliterated the enemy. And we did that. It was, in some cases, somewhat successful, in other cases less successful, but it never really achieved the strategic aims of those wars. This is something that Robert, the scholar Robert Pape has really emphasized that we can make shows of Dominance through air power. But if we really wanted to effectuate change on the ground, we're just as we have just as hard a time in the 90s and 2000s as we did in, in the 60s and 50s. And. But we told ourselves that whole time that we were, that we were kicking ass. We told ourselves that we kicked ass in Iraq, we told ourselves that we kicked ass in Iraq. The second time we told ourselves that we kicked ass, you know, in, in Libya. And, and that was just a story we told ourselves to pump ourselves up, to make ourselves feel more powerful than we really were and more consequential than we really were on the global stage.
Jon Stewart
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David Wallace-Wells
I do think that drones are really a powerful next phase of that story.
Jon Stewart
Right?
David Wallace-Wells
And the way that I would illustrate that is to say, you know, not that long ago, 15 years ago, during the Obama drone wars, when America assassinated Anwar Al Awaqi via drone, it was like this incredible. You know, I felt myself pulled into the science fiction future in which there's this global superpower maintaining total global surveillance such that we could track an individual bad actor on the other side of the world and then go and find him with flying robots that then killed him. That seemed like we had just discovered the Death Star. As America. As America. Now, whether that meant that we could, did we?
Jon Stewart
I'm just curious.
David Wallace-Wells
Yeah.
Jon Stewart
Did we watch the end of that movie? Because I don't know if people know.
David Wallace-Wells
You do have to ask those questions about a lot of these military people.
Jon Stewart
Like, do they stay in the theater till the final credits roll and see what exactly happened to the death?
David Wallace-Wells
Yeah, Well, I mean, I mean, to your point that the movie series was obviously a Vietnam allegory, right? But, you know, even five or eight years ago, military futurists would. Would think of American technological advantage as something that just could not be overcome by a lesser adversary. And then we saw it happen very rapidly. You know, it's not just that the cost of these drones are so cheap, and what they allow any country with any meaningful industrial base to do is to compete on an equal level with, like, the world's most expensive, largest military. And I do think that, you know, this is something that we're finally waking up to now because I think most Americans look at what's happening in Iran and see it clearly. Whatever they're hearing on Fox News or whatever, see it clearly as a setback.
Jon Stewart
See, I think that Americans don't. I think Americans, if you look at it through the prisms of how Americans view it, there are all kinds of narratives that are coming out of this. One of the most powerful ones politically now has nothing to do with the kind of Icarus theory that we're talking about, which is we continue to think, oh, you know, what, if I just have the right wax, I can fly as close to the sun as I want. You know, every time you think, all right, we'll change, we'll. We'll figure out a way to level the playing field on drones, and we can go back to flying next to the sun. But if you think about the narratives now, the narratives now are much more defined through the kind of populist, demagogue lens that we're seeing now. If we just get rid of Israel, we won't have any of these problems anymore because it's really their influence, or if we just get rid of immigrants, we won't have these kinds of problems anymore. It's. It's an elimination theory rather than a coherent theory of you can have influence in this world, but you cannot control it, and attempts to control it will inevitably lead to you plunging into the sea when the wax melts off your feathers.
David Wallace-Wells
And I think that's where we're heading over the next few months. I mean, it's. It's a little hard to know exactly what the consequences will be, in part because, you know, we had A lot of warnings right at the beginning of the war about the economic fallout. Most of the smart people said that pain was going to really hit within four or six weeks. And here we are now three months later. And there are consequences for the US and bigger consequences elsewhere in the world. But it's not like we're, you know, living through the depths of the COVID recession right now or anything like that. But the smart people now tell us that we have about, you know, we managed to extend that timeline because we drew down our oil and gas reserves because around the world we've found ways to sort of maybe cut 10% of, of global fossil demand and. But now we're about to hit the point where, you know, the shit really hits the fan. And that may be a whole new, a whole new phase of this conflict than we, than we've encountered before. And that I think is also really important. Which is another thing that's changed in this conflict is that we used to think of like sanctions and trade war as something that we did to avoid hot conflict. Like it was a lesser escalatory choice which might eventually graduate to a hot war. And this conflict is really interesting because the real fight is not military. The real fight is economic. It's like who is controlling who's got the hostage.
Jon Stewart
Right, right, right.
David Wallace-Wells
And who's suffering most from the holding of the hostage. And like the occasional sorties and bombing. I would like that to stop, but it doesn't feel to me like the peace, the ceasefire periods that we've been in are in any meaningful way preferable to the global order versus the hot conflict periods of this war that we've had. It's actually the main fight is about the economy and I wonder if that's also a sign of where we're heading.
Jon Stewart
See you just. Here's where this is just blowing my mind out. See, now we're going to take it back to when I think about your writing on climate. I always think about when you talk about the real victims of the climate being those that live sub economically from. They're the ones that, that suffer the most. And in some ways it's one of the reasons we don't address it in the manner in which maybe we should, is that there seems to be a kind of. And by the way, the police are coming to take David Wallace Wells away. I don't know where he moved to. Not for you, John, but it is not. No, I'm in Jersey, baby. We don't even have cops. It's all, it's it's nirvana when you talk about the economic. We're all waiting for the economic damage to hit. But isn't there a certain plane of existence now in the stock market and with the AI titans and with the upper middle class that actually gas could be $5, $6 and they wouldn't feel that pain. But there is a level of economic pain in America that is just now endemic that, that the, the 50%, 60%, 70% of the people that are just living through these squeezes and it's just life that, that the people that make the decisions on Iran and AI and climate don't actually ever feel that economic pain. And so why would they change course?
David Wallace-Wells
It's almost the opposite. Right. I mean, in this particular case, in the future things won't be quite as corrupt, one hopes. But in this particular case, the Trump administration has been making announcements and decisions about this war. It seems basically based on like, they're looking at their Bloomberg terminal and they see the entire, they see that terminal as the entire expanse of the universe. So, yes, if they make an announcement and prices go up, their friends profit, sometimes literally criminally through insider trading. In other cases just, you know, in the normal course of corruption.
Jon Stewart
And his kids get a drone contract. Yeah. At the Pentagon.
David Wallace-Wells
Yeah. And then they make another announcement and the market moves in the other direction and a different set of friends of theirs benefit and there's very, very little appreciation for the real world economic consequences. But the truth is, the market is to some degree also operating that way in the sense that, you know, we have had an enormous blow to global oil and gas supplies.
Jon Stewart
Right.
David Wallace-Wells
And the market has not. I mean, they've responded, the market has responded, but it hasn't responded nearly as dramatically as most analysts expected it to. They found ways to find new supply, but they've also just kind of continually bet on the possibility that this is a short term disruption that will be smoothed out in the long run. And so you haven't had the, you know, the, the total turmoil in the markets that one might have expected at the outset. And I do think that you're exactly right. There's a, there's a kind of global story plan playing out in which the nations of Asia, which were hit first and hardest by this shortage of fuel, they've undertaken some incredible emergency measures, they've shortened their work weeks, they've closed schools, they've imposed restrictions on fuel use in the countries of Europe and the US we're now paying a little bit more for gas and maybe for some other products. We buy at the supermarket, but it hasn't been all that catastrophic. And yet even here, where we're relatively insulated, you know, there's huge gradations between who's suffering more as a result and who really could price these changes in without noticing. And I think that you're exactly right. I mean, in the, in the global, I don't mean the global, you know, the planet. I mean the global American context, the, the scale of the, you know, the scale and shape of the economy. I do think that the fundamental fact of this, of the present is this incredibly intense inequality which is growing year on year and in some quite, you know, remarkable ways, especially at the very, very top. And we see all of these plutocrats and oligarchs every day on our TV screens, every day on their podcasts and in their panel conferences, talking about the future of humanity, talking maybe particularly about how AI is going to change everything, but also about economic policy, also about the war. And these are people who are just living in an entirely different universe than not just the bottom 50%, you know, the bottom 95%.
Jon Stewart
Yes.
David Wallace-Wells
Not to mention the bottom 50% who are also living in a completely different universe.
Jon Stewart
Right.
David Wallace-Wells
And I think that's one of the things that is behind the sort of growing AI backlash is this intuition that this is a technology and a world historical force that is being designed by a small handful of people, literally five people, and a huge amount of the world's wealth is being channeled in their direction and, and the shape of our collective future is being written in part by those, in large part by those five people. And for anyone who spent the last decade worrying about not just the concentration of wealth, but the concentration of social power that follows from that wealth, that is an incredibly concerning acceleration of preexisting trends which even in their earlier phase have caused a huge amount of political turmoil and, you know, widespread suffering.
Jon Stewart
The people at the top have always, are always somewhat insulated from the pain that some of their decision making, the effects, the literal effects of their policies on the people whose lives are affected through those policies. I don't recall a time when the distance between those two has ever been this large. And I think your point about AI is a really great one because that's just going to accelerate it in a, in a way that, that we haven't seen before. What is your thought process on when, when the world that the grand designers and decision makers is so removed from the day to day experience of the people, the vast majority, the 90% of people, the 95% of people that those decisions will impact. What's the, where's the cracking point? You know, you got Trump out there saying like, hey, people's financial decisions, that doesn't play into this. I'm, he's just, he's, They' invented a story that Iran was about to get a nuclear weapon and drop it on people. Meanwhile, North Korea has a nuclear weapon, Pakistan has a nuclear weapon, like nuclear weaponry. And the technology that surrounds it is going to be more accessible to smaller and smaller countries. That's just a fact.
David Wallace-Wells
And one of the, one of the messages of this war is like, you should get over the finish line. If you're right, you're developing a nuke, let's hurry because then you, then you're protected.
Jon Stewart
Right?
David Wallace-Wells
Yeah.
Jon Stewart
So when do they, it's not just a board game of, of risk. When did they start feeling the pressure from below or will they ever.
David Wallace-Wells
Well, I think, you know, different actors here are in different positions. So I think the Trump administration is operating in a very different world than like the AI plutocrats. I think that the Trump administration feels that they have their, you know, 90 plus percent of their self identified MAGA Republicans are on board with everything. I think Trump basically only looks at that polling. He doesn't look at polling of the country as a whole, which is one reason why he keeps telling interviewers that he's got such support that nobody else seems to credit. And I think that they're quite comfortable ruining the country by stripping it for parts and enriching themselves, whatever the political consequences. I mean, that is the Trump MO and has been for 50 years. That's how he operates and that's how he's operating now. Now that he's been sort of empowered and without, you know, the sort of limited oversight that there was in the first term. The, the AI guys, you know, first of all, they, they're kind of ideologically
Jon Stewart
diverse as some, some of them are libertarian and some of them are libertarian fascists. Is that, is that the ideological diversity in that world?
David Wallace-Wells
I think that Dario Modi is genuinely a liberal who is just trying to figure out how to square his own, you know, the, the sort of, the market logic of his company with his own set of values. And I think he's going through a very public reckoning with that and the
Jon Stewart
purpose of AI with his values.
David Wallace-Wells
Totally.
Jon Stewart
Yeah.
David Wallace-Wells
Like, you know, 10 years ago, all of these founders were obsessed with existential risk. They thought that AI was going to, there was some chance that AI was going to bring about the near term extinction of humanity. There's some surveys that show that there's still a relatively significant share of AI engineers who believe this is a real possibility. But the, the guys who are really in charge have kind of moved on. They've stopped talking about existential risk, they've stopped talking about biorisk.
Jon Stewart
Sure.
David Wallace-Wells
And they've started to now, over the last year in particular, really focus on what I think the public is most anxious about, which is, you know, disruption to employment patterns, political, you know, political concentration of power. And they don't exactly have a set of, I think, serious proposals for how to deal with those possibilities, but they are at least signaling or trying to signal that they hear the public's anxieties and that they want to be seen as people of conscience on these questions.
Jon Stewart
Seen as, seen as people of conscience, not people of conscience.
David Wallace-Wells
Not actual. Yeah, no, I mean, I think, I think one big part of this story is that, that it's not just them, it's all the rest of us too. It's not clear, like, how much faith we should have in our ability to exercise democratic control over these forces. You know, I was just reading the Pope's encyclical about AI and thinking about the fact that 30 years ago when, you know, the first sheep was cloned, the Catholic church came out and said, we're not going to do human cloning. And they weren't alone. There were a lot of other people who said the same thing on the right and on the left. But there was able to be a kind of social consensus built that this arc of progress actually could be stopped and must be stopped and would be stopped. And it was stopped. We haven't cloned humans in the 30 years since. Right now, it's not an exact parallel, but when Pope Leo comes out with his encyclical against AI now, it's like, do we have any hope of taking control of these systems?
Jon Stewart
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David Wallace-Wells
You know, there are some policy proposals on the table. Bernie just came out with a proposal to take a significant public ownership stake in the, in the big AI companies.
Jon Stewart
I absolutely think that should be the case. But even that, isn't that just a way to corrupt humankind? You know, I'm on board because I think they're strip mining our intellectual property in the first place. The whole point of AI is it's training itself on the entirety of human existence. And yet they get to put it all behind proprietary walls. And we don't see either a shareholder stake or anything about it. In fact, we have to pay them for the privilege.
David Wallace-Wells
Yeah, my boss, A.G. salisbury, the publisher of the Times, just had a great speech about this and he's making a big stand on this front too. But you know, when I think about the Bernie proposal, I also worry that we're essentially affirming the monopolistic structure of this system. If we're saying that the US government is going to take a 50 stake in the leading, just give us a
Jon Stewart
cut and we'll let it go.
David Wallace-Wells
And that means that the US government will then be invested in the stability of that system, in which, for instance, anthropic or maybe open AI is dominating this whole field. And maybe that is the natural course of the technology, that it trends towards monopolistic structures. But I would, I would bet all do. Well, I mean, I would say, I
Jon Stewart
mean, every time you have an advance in terms of communications or science or thing, people tend to try and corner the market on it because so much money pours into the first few people that develop it. And then they use that money to pull ladders up from everywhere else. They use it to feed into the political system. I mean, it's a well worn. You know, the industrialists of the early 1900s did the same thing.
David Wallace-Wells
I agree. I think that's something that's happening in which we need to worry about. But I wonder if there's also something else, another thread here to pick up on, which is, you know, what AI people call diffusion, and that is, you know, the bet of these big frontier labs is that it's so important to be the best, that we should leverage all of this capital and all of these resources and risk antagonizing the American public in order to be a little bit better than the next best guy. Because there's so many large returns to being number one. But I wonder just how true that is. If you have AI progressing so rapidly that an open source model from China or elsewhere that is 80% as good as the frontier model at 10% of the cost, there are going to be a huge number of people who find that valuable. Maybe not the absolute cutting edge cancer researchers or the people in the Pentagon, but for the average person doing like, you know, research on what stocks to invest in or where to go on vacation, they don't actually need, you know, the absolute cutting edge frontier model. They can use one from six months ago and be totally fine.
Jon Stewart
Right.
David Wallace-Wells
And in that landscape, I wonder just how large the returns to dominance really are.
Jon Stewart
That's interesting.
David Wallace-Wells
And whether the natural structure may actually advantage smaller, more nimble. And that's basically, by the way, the bet that China is making on AI. They are focused on making sure that every person in every job can use this tool.
Jon Stewart
Well, utility, they're making it about utility and developing and uptake usage. Right. The other bet they're making that, that is seemingly much smarter than us is they're making a bet on electrification and on the fact that this is going to be an enormous. They're already setting aside land for these data centers and water and to, to electrify their grid. So that, because that's really going to be the challenge is, you know, people are these AI companies, they can corner the market all they want. If they run out of tokens and power, they're done. It doesn't matter if it's model 8.9178 Claude or 10.135 Claude, like, yeah, exactly. You don't have the power, you don't have the model.
David Wallace-Wells
I mean, maybe 18 months ago or so I wrote a piece in which I said like the US is betting on AI and China's betting on green tech. And you know that these were like the two, they were the bets for their century. And the, the, you pointed out the silliness of that, which is that AI also depends on electricity.
Jon Stewart
Right.
David Wallace-Wells
And we need abundant, cheap, you know, available electricity. Clean energy is the fastest, cheapest way to do that. And America is not only not embracing that technology, they're doing a lot of stuff to, to slow its rollout somewhat ineffectively, but the policy direction is against clean energy rather than for it. And in China, you know, they're not, you know, they're still building coal plants, they're still, you know, producing emissions. I don't want to make them seem like a perfect hero here, but especially in the context of the Iran war, which is where we started this conversation, the entire world is now looking out and realizing that clean energy is cheaper, that it is more reliable, because it doesn't. It's not subject to oil shocks, and it is not subject to hostage taking by the world's malevolent actors.
Jon Stewart
Right?
David Wallace-Wells
And it is domestically sourced once you build the infrastructure, so that, yes, you have to import some solar panels and stuff, but once you do that, the sun keeps shining in your country. And the whole world is responding to this crisis as they did, really. There was the, the last crisis with Russia's invasion of Ukraine by dramatically increasing their green electrification programs and importing much, much more green tech, particularly from China. So, you know, we have, since this war, everybody predicted that it would produce a surge in coal. It hasn't happened. Instead, we've seen a huge surge in, in the purchasing of Chinese solar panels of EVs all around the world.
Jon Stewart
Oh, China's killing it. China's killing it right now. This war has absolutely heightened the need for their cars and their solar technology. And we're all sitting around. It makes me think in America, and it kind of gets us back to the Vietnam of it all. But the last time I remember this was the 1970s. That was the oil shock, when OPEC finally realized, you know what, we actually have some power over these Western societies who have such a huge need for our delicious energy that we can consolidate that into OPEC and we can start to have some control here and not just be. And this war feels like a kind of throwback to the analog world that we were living in back then. It's about oil and nuclear power when everyone else is moving into that next century of AI and electrification.
David Wallace-Wells
Yeah, I mean, the, the biggest irony there is that it may be the end of opec.
Jon Stewart
Right? It may, it may destroy it and,
David Wallace-Wells
and also scramble all of these alliances that the Trump administration has spent so much time building over the last decade.
Jon Stewart
Right.
David Wallace-Wells
You know, trying to build a sort of a coalition of countries around basically, venture capital and tech capital in Israel, in the Gulf and many of those countries.
Jon Stewart
Well, that's why it's always so funny. He sends Jared and Witkoff over there, and they always, their plan is always like, what if we just get 200 billion dol. Build, like, a golf course in some hotels in Tehran. Would that be good for you guys?
David Wallace-Wells
Like, well, then this is. I think one of the underrated consequences of this war is that a lot of that money is actually drying up. And, you know, Saudi Arabia, not for him, though.
Jon Stewart
Not for Kushner.
David Wallace-Wells
I mean, not, not, not for the Trump family in particular, but the, The Gulf, The Gulf sovereign wealth funds are reconsidering their investments around the world. They are. A lot of stuff has already been withdrawn and canceled. That's why you're seeing, you know, problems for, you know, the, the golf stuff. And they cancel their.
Jon Stewart
No more money for Mickelson now that this war started.
David Wallace-Wells
But those were, those were basically efforts to court, you know, court power, Western alliances and Western power, and they're reconsidering those in response to this war because even the allies, even Trump's allies in the Middle east, who have benefited from these deals over the last decade and have been scrambling to push more money in that direction, even they see the lesson of this war as America is no longer a reliable partner. They are fickle, they are punitive, and they're, they're just not. It doesn't make sense to put all of our, you know, all of our chips in that, in that basket.
Jon Stewart
Well, they were also, you know what they were. Their vision for the future in the Middle east was a future. We are the cities of the future. We are going to build these. We're going to put islands where islands didn't exist anymore. We're going to build these incredible buildings. It's going to be a place of leisure and technology and all these different things, but the one thing that it requires, not just energy, is stability and peace. And. And peace. And if you're in a volatile region of the world and suddenly drones are hitting in the middle of Doha, well, suddenly it all looks like a fiction and it collapses on itself.
David Wallace-Wells
Even more than that, the country that they depended on to guarantee their peace is the country that is attacking them.
Jon Stewart
Wow. No, that's. That, that's really true. And it brings up, to get back to the existential part of this, the through line here is, is it that humans can't help themselves? And I know that's sort of, you know, I think you. You think on a more philosophical level. And so as we go through all these, you mentioned cloning before and that we were able to stop ourselves from cloning people. A. I'm not sure we have, like, I don't, you don't really know what they're doing in the crispr. But there's also, there's not a huge public utility to that that we can see. AI is different.
David Wallace-Wells
Yeah, that's true.
Jon Stewart
Is, is the through line through all of this, that in truth, even when faced with catastrophic results on the horizon from our actions, that we can't help ourselves, that if it's there to be made, we'll make it.
David Wallace-Wells
That is Trump's philosophical claim.
Jon Stewart
Yes, that's what I'm saying.
David Wallace-Wells
And we are living in a world now in which many other actors beyond Trump are behaving in parallel ways.
Jon Stewart
Right.
David Wallace-Wells
This is not just a problem of who is president. It's, you know, there are many leaders in the world who have become considerably more self interested, amoral, acquisitive in their approach to world affairs. That is true, and I think it is depressing and distressing. But I also think it's not the sum total here. It wasn't that long ago when 2014, 2015, 2016. Just to use the climate story as a kind of illustrative example, it wasn't that long ago that the world's two great powers, the US And China, got together. And even before the incredible declines in clean energy made electrification an obvious economic win, even before that, the US And China said, we really have to get together and do something about climate. And that's the result of that negotiation was effectively the Paris Accords, which was a global agreement in which all countries of the world said that they were
Jon Stewart
going, which we yoinked out of as soon as well.
David Wallace-Wells
I mean, it's not just that, though. It's, you know, it's, we've linked out of so many things. But, you know, 10 years ago, we were, the UN was saying, okay, the Millennium Development Goals that we had put forward in the late 90s were so successful. We had pulled so many people out of poverty, we had driven child mortality down so much that we now need to come up with an entirely different set of goals for 2030. And they did that. And the whole world was very excited about making those real. And we were just in general imagining a more cooperative future, which to the paranoid looked like a kind of the arrival of a global governance structure, which maybe they found unlikable. But even so, the trend of history seemed to be more towards integration through Globalization, but also through, you know, cooperation. Cooperation. All those things were ascendant 10 years ago is not that long ago. And we, we've now lived through a decade or a decade plus of break from that pattern. But I don't want to forget that it wasn't that long ago that we were on that track and it wasn't such a different world materially, economically. And I do think in one perverse way, you know, the lesson of the Donald Trump years is like those of us who diminished the great man theory of history and elevated structural explanations for how things progressed have really missed out because small changes in electorates producing particular personalities in particular places can meaningfully change the entire course of planetary history. That's what we've seen in the US and it's quite depressing. But it also means that you get a different set of people in there and things could be quite different. And I do think that there are.
Jon Stewart
That's certainly more optimistic. I mean, but it also says maybe there's a theory that, you know, whether it is globalization or climate, that leaders have to be more cognizant of the collateral damage of progress and that if you ignore that, that collateral damage. So. And this can apply to climate or AI or anything else.
David Wallace-Wells
Yeah.
Jon Stewart
If you ignore it, you risk what we're seeing now, which is the political backlash to that. So let's go back to your, you know, 10 years ago or 20 years ago, and China's in the WTO and we start forming these more global organizations, but then a climate tax is levied that hurts French farmers and truckers, and so they suddenly have a huge protest and it leads to a kind of rejuvenation of that populist right all through Europe, as well as our interventions in these other places that lead to the immigrant crisis and migrant crisis in Europe and in the United States, which leads again to that populist right wing backlash. Is, is the left, is, is liberal world values not cognizant enough of the unforeseen consequences of what progress can look like? You know, we talk about Trump and them, they live in ivory towers and they don't feel the effects of this. Is the left have a blind spot as well in that? And if we had covered it better, is it possible we wouldn't be facing this backlash?
David Wallace-Wells
Yeah, I mean, I think in the American context, I think a lot about the moment in late 2008, early 2009, when, you know, Larry Summers solicited a bunch of proposals for how much stimulus to ask Congress for and Lael Brainerd proposed, I think, 1.5 trillion. That was how big, she said, the gap between where we needed to be and where we were was, and the government needed to fill that gap with $1.5 trillion in spending. And Summers looked at that and was like, we can't even present this to Obama because there's no way we're going to get more than a trillion. Let's ask for a trillion and we'll negotiate down from there. And he did that. And the stimulus was, I think, $800 billion. And who knows how the alternate history would have unfolded if that $1.5 trillion estimate had actually made its way to Obama's desk. Who knows whether it would have made it through Congress? Who knows, you know, who knows? But if we had found a way politically to deliver double the stimulus that we had, I think we'd be living in a very different place in America politically than we were, than we are now, and with a considerably less suffering and considerably less turmoil. That's not to say that it would have solved all the problems of the China shock in the industrial Midwest. And it's not to say that there wouldn't have been backlash against migration, which, by the way, I think has many causes, global causes that most Americans don't appreciate, because, you know, the big serve surge in 2122, we saw the same surge in Canada, we saw the same surge in the uk, we saw the same surge in the eu. Every rich country in the world had a huge migration surgeon coming out of the pandemic. And we tell ourselves that it was about Biden's indifference to the border, probably that contributed. But there's a bigger story there too. That's a separate point. More specifically, I do think that considerably more could have been done over the last 20 years to soften the jagged edges of all of these changes. And I think it's quite striking and scary that we seem to be heading into a similar transformation, a parallel transformation to globalization in the form of, of AI, without anything like even the things that we tried to build into our response 15 or 20 years ago when at least we talked about retraining industrial workers, and we're not doing that now with AI at all. And I personally don't know how big an impact AI will be for employment over the next two or five years. I think it's more of an open question than many people suggest. But if we take seriously the high end projections of how much turmoil and disruption it could cause, we need to be doing dramatically more to respond to the Fallout.
Jon Stewart
Yes.
David Wallace-Wells
Now on the other side of that though, there's a debate within the party about whether we are, we've become too much, we're too safetiest and we're too worried about technological change. And we need to enable transformation of our economy. We need to build more, we need to, you know, impose fewer, you know, union regulations on our technological change. And so there's, there's a kind of a natural conflict in the coalition which I think we're skating towards the midterms, acting as though we don't need to resolve that. And maybe, maybe that's a bad bargain. Maybe we really do need to resolve that in the favor of one side or the other.
Jon Stewart
I know a little secret about a lot of the folks that listen to this podcast. You like animals. I'm just gonna say many of you like cats. And cats are delightful. But you know, the thing about cats is they gotta eat too. You don't just leave them out there because here's the thing about them. So I, I've had outdoor cats and I've had indoor cats. Boy, the cats at the farm are literally killing machines. So you don't need to feed them. But for most cats, the civilized cat, the cat that domesticated and is not armed with what appears to be five hunting knives and they just follow around looking for mammals smaller than them. You need to give them food. And that's where Smalls comes in. Small, by the way, that is, I don't think, a great segue because I may have, I may have presented a picture of cats that may not be the one that is appropriate to this commercial, but I'm talking about your cat, your delightful cat, Little Pibbles. Hello pit bulls. And Smalls makes the cat food. And by the way, it's human grade food for cat. You know, most cat food brands, it's all cheap fillers and, and whatever they found on the floor of the factory that's not good for your cat. Your cat is not going to be healthy. But Smalls protein packed recipes with preservative free 100 human grade ingredients. So stop serving your little carnivore a bowl of processed shortcuts for a limited time because you are a weekly show listener gets 60% off your first order plus free shipping and free treats for life when you head to smalls.com tws holy. I don't even like saying this. It's such a good deal. One last time. That's 60% off your first order plus free shipping and free treats for life when you head to smalls.com TWS. One of the things I agree with you is a lot of times on the left what we'll do is in expectation of collateral damage, will put up barriers prior to going into it, making a guess. Because if you're going to solve one problem, it has to also solve every problem. So if we're going to build more housing, it also has to solve the climate crisis and it also has to solve racism and hiring and it also has to solve, you know, the way that women make less money in the workplace. Like so we'll put in all kinds of barriers and ultimately don't get to build things. What we don't seem to do well in this country is actively manage these processes for where the collateral damage is occurring. We're really good at putting up a ton of barriers that bureaucratically cost a ton of money and waste a shit ton of time. Because you were talking about earlier, which was I thought was a great point, these inflection points where we always have like the 2008 financial crisis where in hindsight, geez, maybe helping out only the financial institutions and not homeowners was a mistake and create, oh, maybe letting China into the WTO and flooding all western markets with cheap goods, you know, with people that are making a lot less money, taking jobs from people in the, in, in the Midwest wasn't a good idea. Rather than front loading obstacles, maybe the answer is more actively managing the collateral damage of that through the things that you're talking about like stimulus. Right. And this is a theory of government that I have, which is, I think government has made it so that it has an adversarial relationship with the people it purports to help. It's built on the idea that we have to guard against fraud. And so if we treat everybody like they're ripping us off, that will keep the 3% of people that were going to rip us off from doing it. It'd be much cheaper and I think much smarter to treat those programs like they're designed for people to access them and beef up fraud and enforcement on the back end, which is cheaper, make the penalties much higher. It's, it's a, it's a long winded of saying is I think we need to change the theory of government. Well, does that make sense?
David Wallace-Wells
We did do some of that during COVID Right. I mean we basically let people cheat the government left and right as a cost of getting the money out the door more quickly and more seamlessly.
Jon Stewart
But what did it do differently than in 2008. It saved people's lives and homes.
David Wallace-Wells
Yeah.
Jon Stewart
And Larry Summers fucking hated it. Maybe not for that reason, but that's what I'm talking about.
David Wallace-Wells
But Summers is also illustrative. I mean, he's illustrative of some things that are wrong with our, with our world, in our country. But you know, one of the things is that I think, you know, liberalism in America, liberals in America really do believe at their core that the world is legible. They can understand trade offs quite clearly and make judgments from on high which they then pass down to the public. I mean, that is to me one of the real, you know, that, that, that story I just retold about Lael Brainard and Larry Summers. Like, Larry Summers, like, I am going to decide what the right amount of stimulus is and I'm going to give that to President Barack Obama and he's going to give it to Congress and then it's going to be implemented. And he wasn't just making a perfect technocratic calculation. Actually, Lael Brainard was the one who made the perfect technocratic calculation. What Summers was doing was saying, I cannot just understand the gap in this, in this economy. I can also understand the political reality and I can incorporate those two considerations as though they are different inputs in a spreadsheet and tell you the perfect answer and avoid his proposition. I'm going to avoid the ideological conflict around the size of this stimulus by simply spitting out the right answer ahead of time. Yeah, and I found it really striking to bring it back to the present in this wave of, of debate and conversation among the AI leaders. I saw an interview with Dario Modi recently where he said, on this very point, I do not think that ideology can survive the arrival of this technology because machines will know what the optimal distribution of resources will be. They will tell us that we won't have to fight over it. We will have the answer. And this is a profound misunderstanding of political conflict and human psychology and human nature. You know, conservatives always, always yell at liberals and say, you don't understand human nature. Everybody's acquisitive and market oriented. My view is like you, you, you, you know, you plutocrats don't understand human nature. You can't simply run the entire world like you run a factory floor room. You have people fighting and that fight is inherent to the process of human life and human growth. And if you try to navigate around it, you're only going to produce more backlash.
Jon Stewart
And no matter what it is, whether it's AI or whether it's anything else, and I'M sorry, a computer can optimize it as best it wants. It doesn't know what it doesn't know. We don't know as people what we don't know. And that's the theory of the case that I think we're missing in terms of governance, that what you just described about Larry Summers saying, I went through the spreadsheet and I came up with the answer, and now that I have the answer, we can move forward as opposed to saying, here's what I think the answer might be. Let's introduce it into the system, but be prepared to change if we see that the unforeseen consequences of introducing this go in a direction that we did not foresee, or if the consequences of introducing it turn more negative than what we thought. And we have to. We have to be more active in managing those consequences and we're not. I think that's the, the blind spot of, of that type of thinking is I figured it all out on paper beforehand, put it into the system, and let's all sit back and go work on a different thing.
David Wallace-Wells
I mean, I think that there is a huge cultural blind spot, particularly among liberals on that front. But I also think that there's a huge. When you think about it as a matter of state capacity, it's like. And social trust, you know, if we're imagining a world in which we are not in one fell swoop, you know, issuing a huge set of, for instance, new AI regulations, but responding in real time with different kinds of attentive stimulus packages and retraining programs. And yes, that, that, but that requires a huge amount of new state capacity and social trust to make that happen.
Jon Stewart
Not state capacity, though, David. Utilization of capacity that exists. The capacity. I don't think it's a capacity problem. It's a distribution problem. It's a, it's a read and react problem. Don't you think we have the capacity?
David Wallace-Wells
I just look at the way that the government has functioned over the last 20 years and I see very little that gives me faith that we could be nimble and responsive. You know, we, we've gotten some big things done. You know, like, I do think that a lot of the stuff that came out of the financial crisis was good and significant. I think health care was good and significant. Imperfect, but good and significant. I do think a lot of the stuff that we did, you know, in the COVID stimulus was again, imperfect but good and significant and you know, in certain ways remarkably effective. And I do think that the IRA and build back better though They've been, you know, undermined by Trump were also really quite significant. But I don't see a pattern of real time responsive governance. I see people acting in fear of the next administration trying to get everything done and banking progress so that nobody could mess with it.
Jon Stewart
It.
David Wallace-Wells
And that is a appropriate intuition about the shape of, of governance and politics in our country, where, you know, every piece of legislation is only, you know, we can only trust will last as long as the next election. And in that context, can we really imagine designing a more responsive, you know, social welfare state to deal with with more significant changes coming?
Jon Stewart
Yes, I'm not sure.
David Wallace-Wells
Yes, I would like to believe so.
Jon Stewart
I say yes, David, because that's. So opportunity lies in those gaps. The gap that we're describing is, is not a place for fatalism, but a place of opportunity. What, what, what we're describing about here is something in the system that is missing, that is not functioning correctly, that is not responsive or agile to those needs. What I'm saying is we have a factory that has capacity and can be retooled to function in a way, especially with the advent of artificial intelligence tools that allow us to be more agile and responsive. And that, I think, for the left, that's where the opportunity is for a new New Deal, not the old New Deal that has necessarily building these large sort of Maginot lines that protect against social safety consequences, which I think is absolutely necessary. But the ideal is to build that machine in a way that is more coherent to the way people live today. And I think it. Not only can it be done, it must be done.
David Wallace-Wells
I'm with you. And I also think that here in New York, you know, Zoran Mamdani's mayoralty is a perfect illustration of this value set.
Jon Stewart
Yes.
David Wallace-Wells
And he, you know, he's, he's an obviously ideological actor. I share a lot of his political values, maybe not all of them, but I'm a big supporter of his. But even beyond ideology, he is saying we need to make government work for the people of New York City. And the test case for progressivism is whether it can deliver better outcomes for the voters in the city. And that is not a matter of, you know, playing hardball ideologically. It's a matter of, like, filling potholes and actually getting 2k open and all the rest of it. The question for me is whether that is scalable as an approach to politics at the national level. I do take a lot of. I'm really heartened by Zoran and have been much more hopeful over the last year as a result of his rise than I would have been in the absence of him. And I actually see a lot of parallels elsewhere in the country where, you know, sure. We also have like local leaders in, in other places who are leading the charge.
Jon Stewart
San Francisco is now that's a guy who's not, you would not consider ideological in terms of a leftist, but is building a more responsive government. And then you see Los Angeles, which is the antithesis of that, which is democratic governance that seems utterly unmoored from the needs of the people or the desires of the people or what they think about them things.
David Wallace-Wells
And I do wonder one poss whether one possibility here is that Americans come to see national politics, maybe they have already as essentially culture war theater and actually look for responses from their local leaders because there's just so much more direct responsiveness there. You know, we, we already to some degree see the fight between Democrats and Republicans in D.C. as, you know, abstracted from our lived daily realities. But we're, we, we may be much more engaged with mayors and governors, which may be one reason why we are, we find them so much more popular than the people in D.C. who are so horrifically unpopular.
Jon Stewart
I think that's absolutely right. But I'm heartened by. Because what's so interesting to me is one of the, one of the things that, that made the soil fertile for someone like Donald Trump is people feeling like government was no longer responsive to its, to its needs. He took that dissatisfaction and used the tools of a demagogue. Oh, the problem is trans kids in sports and immigrants. And if we fix that. But he hasn't actually fixed it because he's not actually making government responsive to the needs of the people. He's making government responsive to the emotional, kind of reflexive, reptilian brains of the people. But what that says to me though is again, opportunity.
David Wallace-Wells
Yeah. And I mean I would just say about Trump just to sort of tie some of these things, these threads together.
Jon Stewart
Yes.
David Wallace-Wells
The story with Trump and climate is also really interesting because he is, you know, he is an avowed Chinese hoax and he's a hater of wind and hater of solar. And he prioritized the destruction of the ira. First day office, first day in office, signing an executive order work to undo it. You know, he is, he is about as big a fossil fuel villain as you can imagine. He started all of these wars in fossil fuel rich places in part because he actually still believes that we need to commit control the world's fossil fuel reserves. And yet even in the context of that, 90% of all new energy infrastructure built in the US last year was green. 90%. Which means for every unit of new dirty infrastructure we built, we built nine times as much clean energy infrastructure this year. The share is expected to be even larger.
Jon Stewart
Is that, is that subsidy, is that private industry? How is that even possible?
David Wallace-Wells
Well, some of it is because though Trump tried to repeal all of the tax credits from the ira, it was politically difficult given the, you know, the power of the green energy companies. And so many of them have been placed on hold or are now being sunset, but sunset far enough in the future that companies can still take action on it. But mostly it's just because we have a basically mature fossil fuel infrastructure. We're still doing some amount of natural gas build out, but for, you know, oil and coal, we're not, we're just, we have a basically mature system.
Jon Stewart
Right. And there's not where the growth is going to be.
David Wallace-Wells
Yeah, and globally that's true too. I was just looking at a report the other day that said that since the, since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the world's energy importers, people who need energy, have spent five times more money investing in renewables and nuclear than they have in fossil fuel infrastructure, five times as much. The world's energy exporters, the people who are trying to sell stuff on the world stage, have spent twice as much investing in fossil fuels as they have in renewables and nuclear.
Jon Stewart
The irony, the irony, David. A war to preserve our dominance in fossil fuels has ultimately led the world to try and become more resilient and, and move away from it.
David Wallace-Wells
And we're moving pretty rapidly in that direction. I think that the, you know, there's going to be an, another inflection point in the green transition with this war. You know, we're still really far from net zero. We're very far from stopping the warming of the planet. There are a lot of things to be worried about. I don't want to sound too Pollyanna ish about it it, but you know, Michael Lieberk, who's, I think a really thoughtful analyst, just wrote a piece last week saying he thinks this war has brought the peak of global emissions on this side of 2030, whereas he used to think it was on the other side of 2030. And once we've bent that curve, you know, it's a long way down, it's a long ski slope, but we're skiing and I think that's, you know, that's the near term future that we're looking at. For energy that.
Jon Stewart
Can I tell you something? That may be the most hopeful metaphor analogy that I've heard here is once we start going downhill, we're skiing. So to wrap it around our original thought process, which is, yes, here are these threats, climate, energy, demagogues, populism, and all these other. And AI and things that are so fraught with peril, and yet within all that, that underneath it all, opportunity. And that's what's starting to be uncovered.
David Wallace-Wells
Yeah, I mean, you know, just this week, there was the National Conference of Oncologists that reported all of this great news on, you know, cancer breakthroughs. I mean, there is, you know, the future in many ways is bright. There are huge obstacles. We're living through difficult times. And on a personal level, the thing that is so painful to me is having to abandon the suppositions that I grew up with as a child of the 90s, thinking that the future, while progressing erratically, would bring us in a sort of predictable way towards more justice, more prosperity, more equality. I think we've learned that we need to fight for that rather than just put the whole thing on autoplay. But I also think when you look at, for instance, the AI backlash or the backlash to Trump himself, who's the most unpopular president in history now, violating all those stories we told ourselves in the first term about how he was Teflon Don, we can't tell ourselves those stories anymore because he's incredibly unpopular, including with all the demographic groups that we told ourselves had amounted to a political realignment.
Jon Stewart
Right.
David Wallace-Wells
We're seeing in all of those indicators that people are willing to fight. The question is whether the structures of power are assailable or whether, as in the case with sort of the AI labs, whether they're now operating in some way beyond the reach of democratic control. And I'm not willing to make a bet there, either way, I may be a little more worried about that than you are. The fight is certainly visible. The question is, you know, to what extent any of these institutions remain responsive or subject to popular will.
Jon Stewart
Right.
David Wallace-Wells
And I think ultimately that's the test.
Jon Stewart
No, and I appreciate that, and I do. And oddly enough, because our conversations, and for those people who don't know, David and I have had many conversations over the years, are generally with me taking the role of the pessimist who says we shouldn't believe in. In people and their ability thing. And David explaining very patiently to me why there is progress on the horizon and why things are a little bit more optimistic.
David Wallace-Wells
You know, I'm A famous optimist. I don't know if you knew that.
Jon Stewart
Famous optimist. Famous. But, but in, in this instance, I. I believe I am more optimistic than you in that because I've seen how these systems can be bent and they can be bent by bad actors, but boy, oh, boy, they can be bent by good actors. And if there has ever been a moment where this country and this world is ground down to a nub by the chaos and incoherence of a man child who has been handed power he didn't earn, this is a moment. This is a moment where a good actor can assail, as you said, these towers of power and reform them in a way that benefits us. I really believe that.
David Wallace-Wells
Just want to say one thing to illustrate that and then one thing to complicate it. The illustrate point is I want to take us back in time to the period between the election in 2024 and say, March or April of 2025, okay, when Donald Trump was returning to the White House and we were just awash in this, this sense that liberals too, that MAGA was on the march, that there had been a political realignment in the country, that Donald Trump was not. It wasn't just tragic and awful that Donald Trump was returning to the White House, but he was winning all of these voters, all of these votes from young voters, black voters, brown voters. He was rewriting the demographic coalition of the Republican Party. And that he had effectively won the culture war, especially with the support of the tech billionaires. And now I think about, you know, this great American state fair that they tried to stage 15 months later, and they, they booked 10 people and it was like, the headliners are like Milli Vanilli and Vanilla Ice. That's the best they could do. And then all those people had to drop out because they, they were just like, this isn't for us. It's too costly. And it is just so clear to me, the approval ratings show it, you know, but on the culture level, Donald Trump has not won the culture war. He has lost the culture war. The podcasters are out on him, the entertainers are out on him. And I think to some degree, the story we told ourselves 15 months ago was a bit of an illusion, a self lacerating illusion that liberals were telling themselves because they wanted to beat themselves up. And in fact, we were never as weak and he was never as strong as he seemed. The complicating part of this story is you say someone can arrive, a new leader can arrive. And that is true. But when I look at the Democratic Party in particular, I don't see it. There are a lot of people that I like. There are a lot of people that I. That I admire, but there's no Barack Obama walking through those doors.
Jon Stewart
And there's no idea. There's. There's no. It's. It's almost beyond even an individual. There's no theory of the case. And I think the theory of the case that we are making today is one that they should be cognizant of. Of. And. And I think the theory of the case is, is there to be made. I actually really think it's. It's within their grasp. It's just a simple formulation of people want to feel like they're getting value for their money, and government has to be aligned along that axis. Forget about anything else. And. And it's there for the taking. And I think if somebody is able to. To formulate that in a coherent way, they've got a real leg up into that. That's. That's what I would say. And that's why I remain always hopeful within that. From your lips to God's ears, because I'm famously optimistic. David, it's always such a pleasure to talk to you, man.
David Wallace-Wells
You too.
Jon Stewart
David Wallace Wells. Obviously, you can see him in the New York Times opinion columnist and New York Times magazine, and obviously the best seller, the Uninhabitable Earth Life After Warming. David, thanks so much for joining us.
David Wallace-Wells
Thanks for having me.
Jon Stewart
Ray Ban Meta lets you explore the world without a screen getting in the way so you can stay present in the moment.
Brittany Mic
Hey, Meta, tell me what kind of dessert this is. That's a stroopwafel, a Dutch waffle with spiced syrup in the middle.
David Wallace-Wells
Is it sweet treat?
Jon Stewart
Yes. Perfect for a snack or dessert.
David Wallace-Wells
Delicious.
Jon Stewart
Get answers on the go without interrupting your flow. Ray Ban Meta Iconic Style meets Meta AI. Available at Walmart and other authorized retailers. Guys, can I share something?
Jillian Spear
Yeah, yeah, please.
Jon Stewart
I feel weirdly, like, giddy.
Jillian Spear
I think it's really telling that David Wallace Wells, the author of the Uninhabited Earth, is one of the more optimistic conversations that we've had in a while.
Jon Stewart
Isn't that crazy?
Jillian Spear
I also think it's concerning that he's getting his optimism from Milli Vanilli.
Jon Stewart
Well, Rob, Not Millie. Not Vanilli. It's really just Millie. But I'll tell you why I feel so energized. There was a moment when he was described. It's. It sort of felt like a Shark tank moment, like where you go, like, there's got to be a better way. Like the way that he was talking about how liberalism functions specifically through the vestiges of, of government. How, how the summers of it all designs the program and the grand and answers all the questions in thought. Because he's the smartest person that's ever existed. And they just put it into the fax machine and send it out and it gets deployed.
Jillian Spear
Yeah, it always works that way.
Jon Stewart
It always works that way. It made me realize one of those like there's got to be a better way. And there is.
Brittany Mic
Yeah.
Jon Stewart
And that there is actually a theory of government that can be more reactive, that can take into account the, the negative consequences, the unforeseen collateral damages of even the well intentioned policies and try and address it in a proactive way. That can preempt the hollowing out of the Midwest, that can preempt the kinds of difficult resentments that arise through immigration. It can be done.
Jillian Spear
Yes, I feel it. I know. I mean, I would. I agree. I really like. There's moments when you feel really hopeful because it does sometimes feel like we are turning a corner and we're seeing a really affirmative case being made right now in New York City and people are loving it.
Jon Stewart
I mean, San Francisco too. I, you know, we don't spend much time out there because it's obviously I
Jillian Spear
spend a little time out there.
Jon Stewart
As you know, Jillian has, for those of you who don't know at home, Jillian has an unhealthy relationship with, I think unhealthy with the San Francisco Giants
Jillian Spear
if right now it's pretty abusive.
Jon Stewart
Yeah, no, even, and by the way, that's coming from a Mets fan.
Jillian Spear
Things are darker for the San Francisco Giants than for the New York Mets.
Jon Stewart
That's right. So, so even, even within that. But, but, and, and, and two polar opposite visions of what maybe liberalism might be, but are making government in those places or trying to at least more responsive.
Jillian Spear
And you know what they're also doing is like broadcasting what they're doing.
Jon Stewart
Yes.
Jillian Spear
They're showing people here's how government is working for you. I'm not just gonna assign something into effect. I'm gonna show you how it's being effective simply too.
Jon Stewart
Yeah.
Jillian Spear
People love it.
Jon Stewart
And hopefully acknowledging when it's not the transparency of it all. I think if you can just connect those things, the actions of the government with the money that you're putting in and the value that might be coming out of it, people will start to, you can start to earn their tr. Not an easy process, but it's one that must be undertaken if we're to recapture, you know, whatever the backlash will be to this toxic nationalism and populism that's, that's arising.
Jillian Spear
Yeah.
Brittany Mic
I thought it was interesting when he was saying how Trump has lost the culture war right now. And I do agree with that. I feel like on the outside, yeah, I'm feeling that change. But on the inside, I don't know that I 100% agree with that. Like, yes, we're seeing everyone back out of this concert and stuff, but like, we're also seeing people he endorse win primaries.
Jon Stewart
But that's also a very narrow, you know, because it's, it's the base. But what I would say to that is there's a difference between losing something and somebody beating you. And right now nobody's beaten him. A lot of this is self owns.
Jillian Spear
Yeah.
Jon Stewart
And, and at my point was that the Democrats have not been able to mount a convincing alternative to what he was offering. He's just so incompetent that he's losing it.
Jillian Spear
And they're almost leaning in.
Jon Stewart
Yeah.
Jillian Spear
They're almost saying government actually can't work for you, so you shouldn't have to pay taxes if you don't make a certain amount of money.
Jon Stewart
Right.
Jillian Spear
As opposed to saying you're going to pay your taxes, it's going to be a progressive tax rate, other people are going to pay more, and we're going to make the system work as well as it does for them. For you.
Jon Stewart
That's right.
Brittany Mic
Yeah.
Jon Stewart
And it's not enough for them to say, like, we're going to tax the billionaires. If people don't believe that you're going to use that money in any way that benefits their lives, they're just completely. They're not going to give a shit.
Brittany Mic
Absolutely.
Jon Stewart
Brittany, what do we got? What do we got?
Brittany Mic
All righty. Now that I'm fired up, I love Positive John.
Jon Stewart
Positive Johnny.
Brittany Mic
John, what is your favorite topic to talk about on the podcast?
Jon Stewart
Sandwiches. Almost always sandwiches.
Jillian Spear
This is a sandwich podcast.
Jon Stewart
Yeah, it's. If, in fact, fact, if we could do the sandwich podcast, I think I would do. Do you guys have a sense of my favorite topics? Because I don't. I would say food is probably really.
Brittany Mic
I was gonna go with an economist.
Jon Stewart
No, that's my most, that, that's my most fearful economy. Can I tell you something? Economists are my bet noir. They are my white whale. I am, I am Ahab. I am always on the search of an economist who will not treat me condescendingly. Although we do find them, actually.
Brittany Mic
Yeah, we have. Yeah.
Jon Stewart
We've had some lovely ones.
Brittany Mic
Yeah.
Jon Stewart
Daron was. Was lovely, the guys from mit.
Jillian Spear
Clara, mate was great.
Brittany Mic
Yeah. Kitty Richards.
Jon Stewart
That's right.
Jillian Spear
Yes.
Jon Stewart
It's so nice to know that in Boston you can be an economist and not an.
Jillian Spear
Oh, my gosh. Yeah. The combination of those two things, though. Boston and economist. Oh, God.
Jon Stewart
Right. It's not a good. It's not a good company. But, yes, I do love. I do love talking about that stuff. And egg sandwiches, I would say the two that are my favorite. But I'd be happy to hear from the audience.
Jillian Spear
Taco Bell.
Jon Stewart
Can I tell you something?
Brittany Mic
This food, it's food.
Jon Stewart
It really is.
Jillian Spear
We record so close to lunchtime.
Jon Stewart
It's just that the crunchwrap Supreme. It's not just that it's food. It's that. It's the engineering supremacy of it all. It's that manufacturing.
Jillian Spear
It's us manufacturing.
Jon Stewart
It's also food that you imagine was drawn up on an architect's table, a very high architect. You imagine somebody with a T square going. What if we just. You know, a burrito is so fucking easy. You just stuff it with shit and you roll it up. What if we get. What about a parallelogram? What if we take a Folded this way? Hold on. Let me get my T square and a protractor and figure out where I can put the beans.
Brittany Mic
We have got to get Taco Bell to sponsor us.
Jon Stewart
Genius, by the way. They already do. They just don't know it. They are the fuel that keeps me going on there. What else we got?
Brittany Mic
All right, next. John, how long do you think Trump and his, quote, extreme intelligence, would last on Jeopardy?
Jon Stewart
Oh, God. On Jeopardy. Jillian, you can answer this. You're the.
Jillian Spear
I don't think he would have good buzzer skills. That hand is like a little. It's seen better days.
Jon Stewart
Boy, is that true. Talk about the bruising that would occur after a match. I think the only difference with Trump is he would still answer. Like, even if he wasn't, he wouldn't wait till the end. He would just blurt it out or do that. But I've always felt that for intel. So where's your brain located? It's the head. And the head is at the top of. It's sort of like, if you think about it as a New York apartment building, it's the water tower. Tower.
Jillian Spear
Okay.
Jon Stewart
And what's the most important thing in the water tower? Pressure. And. And the hydraulics. And what does Trump have? Chronic venous. Insufficiency. He's got shitty water pressure.
David Wallace-Wells
Wow.
Jon Stewart
So what happens?
Jillian Spear
Not good.
Brittany Mic
The plumbing ain't working.
Jon Stewart
Not good. No. No water pressure. No good. Shower flushes are kind of hard to come by. So as far as jeopardy. Is concerned, this dude's not getting these. The, The, The. The water pressure.
Jillian Spear
I mean, he only just found out dumb has it be in it. So I don't know if. I don't know if jeopardy. Is the right.
Jon Stewart
That. The idea that he was saying to her, and for those who don't know, it was. He was describing how he came up with the Democrat, and he was explaining to Lara Trump, you know, I thought Democrat, you know, and I dropped the B because most people don't know there's a B in that. I'm like, well, most people who aren't dumb know.
Jillian Spear
Oh, he set himself up for that one. Yeah.
Jon Stewart
How is this real?
Brittany Mic
He is definitely a more of a Wheel of Fortune guy.
Jon Stewart
I don't think even. I think. I think even this. The spinning of the wheel would throw him off. Vertigo. What's our last one? What's our last.
Brittany Mic
Last one? John, do your kids like you?
Jon Stewart
Why would they? But I hope I. I hope so. I hope that not only do they love me, that they like me, because I. I love them, but I also really like them. I find them very good company. I find them fascinating, interesting, singular people that I enjoy. And, and by the way, not. Not just heavy kind, you know, oh, let's talk about life and, you know, different things. I like just being with them, around them. It's fun. They're fun. They have. They're. They both have great senses of humor. They're both really smart. They're fun to be around.
Jillian Spear
So where they got all that from?
Jon Stewart
Tracy.
Brittany Mic
Tracy.
Jon Stewart
You guys met Tracy. You know what we're talking about. But. Yeah, but. Oh, God. What? What? That. That's one of those questions, like, where you almost feel like the hair on the back of your neck go up. Like, what. What have you heard?
Brittany Mic
Did they submit this question, like, do
Jon Stewart
your kids like you like that? I think as far as, like, a parent's fear, that would be, like. That'd be on the list. Other than, like, health. Their health, their happiness, all that stuff, them not liking you would be like. Like. Oh, like devastating.
Brittany Mic
Yeah. Do you think there was ever a time that they didn't like you?
Jon Stewart
Oh, sure.
Jillian Spear
Yeah.
Jon Stewart
I mean, so relationships are fraught, no matter how beautiful and wonderful and deep and intense they, you know, and I'm sure there are moments of Frustration. And there are patterns of behavior and answers that I know that I probably do, that I roll. But within healthy relationships is grace. And we have, hopefully, grace for each other in those moments of understanding that we'll be. That the baseline of our relationship is respect and love. And, like, even though there's moments, I'm sure, where, like, I can be a pain in the ass, if that makes
Brittany Mic
sense, we all can. But I also think it changes as kids get older and stuff. I mean, I don't have young kids, but I just know being a kid, like. Like, my mom and I definitely went through it when we were teenagers. But then as you get, like, older, you know, you find a friendship and you find hobbies together, and you love doing things. It's you. You definitely grow into being more friends as well, which is such a beautiful new chapter.
Jon Stewart
I wonder if the tough times are necessary, because otherwise you'd never leave.
Jillian Spear
Yeah, I think that's probably true.
Brittany Mic
Yeah, we. I mean, we laugh about it now. Like. Like, man, I was 16. I was stealing the car, sneaking out windows.
Jon Stewart
Wait, I thought. Wait, hold on a second. That just took a turn, Brittany. That turned from, like, you know, we went through it a little bit. Like, we used to fight a little bit. And, like, I kind of slept late and stuff. And I stole the car.
Brittany Mic
Oh, yeah.
Jon Stewart
Oh, And I committed Grand Theft Auto.
Brittany Mic
We're really good friends now.
Jon Stewart
And I robbed a liquor store. Jillian, did you go through it at that age?
Jillian Spear
Oh, yeah, for sure.
Jon Stewart
Yeah, I think everybody does.
Jillian Spear
Yeah.
Brittany Mic
Yeah.
Jillian Spear
Teenage eggs, you know, that's necessary.
Jon Stewart
They have to separate from you because when they're young, it's the most beautiful thing, but it ha. You know, it has to end. And that the heartbreak of parenting is that. Is that, you know, when they think you're Superman, that at some point they're going to realize you're going to make me cry. All right, I won't do that. All right, we'll move on. We'll move on.
Jillian Spear
Oh, wait, I have a.
Brittany Mic
Before we wrap.
Jillian Spear
Okay, complete this sentence. Nixon.
Jon Stewart
Oh, anything. Nix in anything. God willing, nix in anything, please.
Brittany Mic
Are you going?
Jon Stewart
I'm hoping to. I'm trying not to think about it. I'm so excited.
Jillian Spear
So we'll always have the Mets to fall back on.
Jon Stewart
Settle down, Settle down, Brittany. How do they keep in touch with us?
Brittany Mic
Twitter. We are weekly showpod. Instagram threads. TikTok, Blue Sky. We are weekly show podcast. And you can, like, like, subscribe and comment on our YouTube channel. The weekly show with Jon Stewart.
Jon Stewart
Fantastic. Thank you. Guys very much and thanks for for keeping in touch with us and asking those provocative and sometimes emotionally wounding questions. Thanks as always to everybody. Couldn't do it without your producer Brittany Mic, producer Jillian Spear, video editor and engineer Robert Tolo, audio editor and engineer Nicole Boyce, and our executive producers Chris McShane and Katie Gray. Thanks so much guys and we will see you next week. Bye boy. The Weekly show with Jon Stewart is a Comedy Central podcast. It's produced by Paramount Audio and Busboy Productions. Ryan Reynolds here from Mint Mobile. I don't know if you knew this, but anyone can get the same Premium Wireless for $15 a month plan that I've been enjoying. It's not just for celebrities. So do like I did and have one of your assistant's assistants switch you to Mint Mobile today. I'm told it's super easy to do@mintmobile.com
Brittany Mic
Switch upfront payment of $45 for 3 month plan equivalent to $15 per month required intro rate first 3 months only, then full price plan options available, taxes and fees extra. See full terms@mintmobile.com youm're listening to this
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Jon Stewart
Paramount Podcasts.
Release Date: June 3, 2026
Host: Jon Stewart
Guest: David Wallace-Wells (NYT columnist, author of The Uninhabitable Earth)
In this wide-ranging and incisive conversation, Jon Stewart sits down with David Wallace-Wells to dissect the ongoing Iran war, its ramifications on global energy and geopolitics, and the challenges posed by technological and social change—particularly AI and climate. The episode balances grim realities with moments of unexpected optimism, critically exploring America's global role, the failures of leadership, and the opportunities that crises may present for progress.
“I'm still pretty worried about warming. But there are some near term challenges too, which may be looming a bit larger for, you know, your listeners.” (04:56)
Origins & Rationale: Wallace-Wells calls the war in Iran "needless, elective, and catastrophic", highlighting failures in American strategy and the pursuit of dominance without responsibility.
“This war wasn't even strategic... Trump basically just wants to play the role of a 19th century Imperial power where he gets to do what he wants. He doesn't have to own any of the damage...” (09:46)
Double Standards in Foreign Policy
Drone Warfare & Changed Calculus
Failure to Learn Historical Lessons
An Economic Conflict First
Inequality & Policy Blind Spots
Stewart points out: “The people that make the decisions...don’t actually ever feel that economic pain. And so why would they change course?” (24:14)
Wallace-Wells: “There are gradations between who's suffering more...the fundamental fact of the present is this incredibly intense inequality...” (26:29)
Concentration of Wealth and Decision-Making
Policy Proposals & Monopoly Concerns
“If we're saying that the US government is going to take a 50% stake in the leading, just give us a cut and we'll let it go, that means the US government will then be invested in the stability of that system…” (35:44)
China’s Dual Focus on AI and Energy
America’s Failure to Pivot
“The irony, David. A war to preserve our dominance in fossil fuels has ultimately led the world to try and become more resilient and, and move away from it.” (70:42)
Liberalism’s Techno-Managerial Trap
“That’s the blind spot...is I figured it all out on paper beforehand, put it into the system, and let’s all sit back and go work on a different thing.” (61:13)
Need for Responsive Democratic Governance
Wallace-Wells: “...requires a huge amount of new state capacity and social trust.... I see very little that gives me faith that we could be nimble and responsive.” (63:15)
Stewart remains optimistic: “Opportunity lies in those gaps...especially with the advent of artificial intelligence tools that allow us to be more agile and responsive.” (64:34)
Local Models of Good Governance
National Politics as Culture War Theater
Trend Lines: Green Energy and Political Pushback
Optimism in a Fragmented World
Stewart: “If there has ever been a moment where...this country and this world is ground down to a nub by the chaos and incoherence of a man child who has been handed power he didn’t earn, this is a moment. This is a moment where a good actor can assail...these towers of power and reform them in a way that benefits us.” (74:27)
Final Note
On America's War Logic:
“We told ourselves in that period that we had found a technological solution to the problem of Vietnam... But we told ourselves that whole time that we were, that we were kicking ass. We told ourselves that we kicked ass in Iraq...and, and that was just a story we told ourselves to pump ourselves up, to make ourselves feel more powerful than we really were...” — David Wallace-Wells (15:42)
On Economic Inequality:
“In the global American context...the fundamental fact of the present is this incredibly intense inequality which is growing year on year and in some quite, you know, remarkable ways, especially at the very, very top.” — David Wallace-Wells (26:29)
On AI’s Political Economy:
“This is a technology and a world historical force that is being designed by a small handful of people, literally five people, and a huge amount of the world’s wealth is being channeled in their direction...” — David Wallace-Wells (27:40)
On Crisis and Opportunity:
“Opportunity lies in those gaps. The gap...is not a place for fatalism, but a place of opportunity.” — Jon Stewart (64:34)
On Shifting Optimism:
“The thing that is so painful to me is having to abandon the suppositions that I grew up with as a child of the 90s...I think we’ve learned that we need to fight for that [progress] rather than just put the whole thing on autoplay.” — David Wallace-Wells (72:11)