Loading summary
Transcript124 lines
- [00:00]
A
Before we had AT&T business wireless coverage, our delivery GPS wasn't the most reliable. Once our driver had to do a 14 point turn to get back on route. A 14 point turn. An influencer even livestreamed the whole thing. Not good for business. Now with AT&T business Wireless routes are updating on the fly and deliveries are on time. And the influencer did get us 53 new followers though.
- [00:25]
B
AT&T business Wireless connecting changes everything. Ryan Reynolds here from Mint Mobile. I don't know if you knew this, but anyone can get the same Premium Wireless for $15 a month plan that I've been enjoying.
- [00:38]
C
It's not just for celebrities.
- [00:40]
B
So do like I did and have
- [00:42]
A
one of your assistant's assistants switch you to Mint Mobile today.
- [00:45]
B
I'm told it's super easy to do.
- [00:47]
A
@mintmobile.com Switch upfront payment of $45 for 3 month plan equivalent to $15 per month Required intro rate first 3 months only, then full price plan options available, taxes and FE terms.
- [00:59]
C
@mintmobile.com Alfonso Ulalio, the race leader, sprints ahead, gets six second time bonus. Ben O' Connor kind of heads up, move, chases after him, gets four seconds. So they get a time bonus, they extend their race lead, they have the jersey for probably losing on Saturday, but then they win a stage. I mean it is, you could tell when they were interviewing the Bahrain staff just how excited they were. That has to be good vibes inside the team.
- [01:25]
A
Spencer Success is contagious in a Grand Tour. You know, I mean, it's like everybody's on cloud nine right now and you know, everything seems to work. It's as we said, as I say many times, the second part of Grand Tour is there's a lot, a lot of mental struggle and a lot of, I mean it's very different if you suffer for a reason or if you suffer just because you are in the race and you have to follow the incredible pace that other teams impose on you. It's very different the kind of suffering.
- [02:02]
C
Everybody, welcome back to the Move Plus. I'm Spencer Martin. I'm here with Johan Bernal. We are breaking down stage 12 of the Giro d' Italia and then we'll predict stage 13, talking about who we think is going to win that. But stage 12 was a sprint day, breakaway day. No one's quite sure what it was. It was a hard day with high pace. A breakaway got away early, was reeled in, another breakaway win, was then caught on the first climb when MOV started pacing just like they did on Stage four. And then there was. They just send it down. There was an even harder Klein in Enoch Moss is at the front, whittling down the group. Paul Monet's drop, Jonathan Malange dropped. We think it's going to be a reduced sprint. We have guys like Tunards, Ethan Vernon, Jonathan Arbias. Who's going to win this thing? Oh, it's Alec Segart. A late attack. A beautiful late attack with 3k to go was planned. It was in the final corner. He must have read Greg Lemon's bike racing manual. Always attack into the corners. That's all I remember from that book. And Alec, he, he did that. It was perfect. He exited the corner with a, like a big, a big gap. And Key Visma was on the front with Victor Camparts. They had nothing really to pull for other than keep Jonas Vaard safe. By the time Unox got to the front, Tudor got to the front, it was too late and both those teams got the front, not one or the other. It was too late and he held him off. It was Johan, Perfectly planned attack. What was your takeaway from the stage?
- [03:24]
A
Yeah, super nice win for Alex Segaard. His first Grand Tour stage win ever. And you know, we've seen him do this already several times this season. Spencer, you know, like earlier, I think in March we saw him do this in the Nokure Grand Prix. He got caught like with 100, 200 meters to go. The day after he did the same thing in Grand Prix where he won.
- [03:53]
C
He almost did this. Remember, it was at Dwarves.
- [03:57]
A
Dwarves, no, novel game.
- [03:59]
C
Wibblegum. Yeah. And he didn't work out because Ghana was there.
- [04:02]
A
Yeah, yeah. So, you know, you have to have huge power to do that. He's a time trial specialist, you know, ex European champion, under 23, time trial and, and very strong guy. So the thing is, you know, like for cigard, you know, you have. He has to be in great shape because, you know, he's, he's a tall guy, but you know, he's also almost 80 kilos, you know, 79 kilos, which, you know, for, for a rider his size and his, his weight to make it over those two last climbs at that pace. Because, you know, Movistar was, was really drilling it to try to, to drop all the sprinters, but you know, they succeeded with most of them. As you said, you know, Milan was dropped, Grune was dropped, Manier Lund and others. And so for Segart, with his size and his weight to make it, you can compare him with people. Gama. Right. In terms of Weight, I do think
- [05:01]
C
Ghana is now 87 kilos. So even that's word on the street. But 79. I mean, we were just doing quick math. He probably would have to be doing 450 watts. If Enrich Moss is pacing around like between five and a half and six watts per kilo, maybe five and a half is what Moss was doing. So you have to do a lot of power to stay in that group.
- [05:23]
A
Yeah.
- [05:24]
C
At that size.
- [05:24]
A
Yeah. So, you know, he has to be. The thing is that I think, you know, because he did say in his interview after the stage that they planned this attack at the same. At that very spot yesterday evening when they went over the strategy. So, you know, he, he must have felt really confident that he would make it over that climb, which, which is not easy, you know, because everybody, I think everybody kind of knew that Movistar would do this. They. They succeeded. I mean, they almost succeeded, at least by, you know, dropping the sprinters on stage. What was it, stage two or stage three? No, actually it was later. No, Stage four was Narvaez first win.
- [06:09]
C
Yeah.
- [06:09]
A
Yep. Yeah. So it was very similar terrain and for sure Movistar was going to try this. We talked about it yesterday that that was a possible scenario, and they did. I think they did it really well. The problem with those kind of strategies, Spencer, is, and especially so deep within the, The Grand Tour already that, you know, you, you're not. You don't have a full team anymore. And some guys are injured, some from crashes, some guys are sick. You know, they have Javier Romo who abandoned today. They have Juan Pelopez who's. Who looks like he's hurt from a crash because he has band aids all over his legs. So you're not, you're not at full power and, and the, the danger is you. You spent two or three riders to set that tempo. But it was still far, far to go after that last climb. The last, I think the last climb was probably still 40k to go to the finish. And so you don't have any guys left. Luckily, luckily there was also other teams who were, you know, on, on the. So Movistar started to set the tempo straight away from the bottom of that first climb, did the damage Magne and Milan and came back. But they got dropped straight away on that second climb because Movistar did the same. And, you know, they were joined by nsn, who were, you know, having their faith in Corbin Strong and Ethan Vernon, you know, but. But then still, you know, you still have to make it to the finish. Right. As we say always, Spencer, you know, at some point in a Grand Tour, you always find help. Right? So it was kind of nice to see that Movistar did the damage, but then they didn't have to do the work anymore afterwards because NSN was doing the work. And also EF joined because they had this Estonian champion, Madis Mikkels in, in there, who's also a fast guy when the big sprinters are not there. And so everything pointed towards a reduced punch sprint also. I mean, there was other riders there, you know, Ben Turner was there, had a flat, so he kind of lost, he came back, but I think he spent too much energy coming back. And then the problem is that, you know, there is no more team that is really strong enough and can organize. Except, for example, except Visma. But Visma, they had a lot of guys, but they had no intention at all to bring everything back. And so the risk is then that there are riders like Alex Segart who try a late attack and succeed. And so it's not easy. I mean, but a guy like Sega definitely has the power. I mean, I'm really happy to see, you know, as a, as a Belgian, a young rider to succeed also. He's, you know, he's from my area, the town next to where I live in Belgium, and actually a 1, 2 for Belgium today. I don't want to sound, you know, too patriotic, but I was gonna say,
- [09:12]
C
what is this George and Cappy over here, But no, yeah, Tuna, it's getting second huge. Not, not just because he's Belgian, but super impressive result. I. If you watch the cyclocross in the wintertime, that name will be familiar because he's a cyclocross rider, has been a full time cross rider until you. What'd you say last year was his first year on the road?
- [09:35]
A
I checked actually. Last year, in the middle of the season, Spencer, In May of 2025, he transferred from his cyclocross team, which is a pure cyclocross team, to Lotto. They have a collaboration and so now he's full time on Lotto for the road season, but it's actually his first full season on the road. As far as I remember, the team he's on as a cyclocross rider his whole career. I mean, he's. He's 32 now, so. Or at least the last few years of his career. It's. It's a typical cyclocross team, so they do road races, but purely in preparation of the cyclocross season. So Basically they start the race in the month of May, these guys. So really impressive. I mean Ton Aerts I think is really undervalued as, as a road rider and he's done a few good results already. I mean strong, really strong guy and it's nice to see, nice to see him up there. I think it's also his first Grand Tour ever if I'm not mistaken. So yeah, it's the proof. Ton Aerts is the proof that of course he's been a cyclist for a long time. But it's never too late. It's never too late. You know, he obviously has a huge engine, has been a cyclist but purely a cyclocross rider for a very long time. And now he's on the World Tour scene and today got second in the stage in the Giro. Nice to see he had a two
- [11:06]
C
year suspension from 2022 to 2024. I kind of forgot about him during that time and he got a real bum deal. It was some sort of com. Like I think it was a legitimately contaminated supplement.
- [11:18]
A
Yeah, it was something like that.
- [11:19]
C
Right.
- [11:20]
A
Strange substance which is found in contaminated supplements or could be in meat or. He did have, he did get a suspension, a two year suspension because the, the explanations he tried to find were not accepted. He didn't know himself how the substance got into his system. But it was definitely not a product that would enhance the performance. So I mean he was, you know, effectively two years non active without racing and suspended and then to come back like this. Yeah, great for him.
- [12:00]
C
Interesting trace amounts. Yeah, it is too bad I kind of forgot about him. He comes back. I thought it was a different guy named Tunaarts because then he's on a different. He's on a road team. Why do you think, why did he not switch over to the road for so long? He was just enjoying cyclocross and then decided to do something different.
- [12:17]
A
No, he was a pure, pure cyclocross rider. Like there are many in, in Belgium and the Netherlands, you know, like, I mean Haley is the bit. I mean he's now had to stop his career unfortunately because of an injury. Michael von Tournau, Joris Nieuwenhaus Nieuwenhuis named them, you know, these, these Belgians and Dutch riders who are making a living as a pure cyclocross specialist. So tonight was one of them. I don't know, he just didn't. Never got the opportunity. I think he was on, you know, he was for a long time on, on what was it? Track Lions, Boulois or something with the team of.
- [12:59]
C
Yep.
- [13:01]
A
Which is also a pure cyclocross team. Now what we see, of course, is also, you know, since there. There are now these new collaborations between those teams. For example, if you look at Thibault, nice. With Tibonice is. Is racing on the road, he's on little track. And when he's racing in the cyclocross, he's on what? I don't. I don't know what it's called now. It's Track Baloas or it has. It's another name now. I don't remember the name. They changed sponsors. But it's the typical, you know, pure cyclocross team. So that's why they do it. But yeah, I mean, Ton Arts, man, it's a huge engine. Big engine, this guy.
- [13:39]
C
It shows to the risk of what Movistar did. Movistar does all this work. Christian, your son was not too impressed with our prediction yesterday because he said, that guy's not going to win. And you know, he was right.
- [13:51]
A
You know what? He was right. He told me yesterday, he said, who do you pick? I said, yeah, you know, if it's. If it's a reduced bunch print, I think. Or Luis Olar. He says he's not going to win. I said, why? He said, he. I mean, I didn't check. He. He hasn't won a race in the last two years, so. Or Lis or Lar has not won a single race since he's on Movistar. Which, you know, it's kind of difficult then to win a stage in the Giro, right?
- [14:13]
C
Is a little difficult. Yeah. I mean, especially when you look at this. So outside of tune Arts and Sigart, third place. Thomas Thomas, or Sorry Guo, Thomas Silva, like, that guy is really good. He's already won a stage at this race and he's still there. Ethan Vernon's still there. Those are hard guys to beat in a sprint like that.
- [14:32]
A
Yeah, yeah, yeah. But listen, I mean, I think. I think Movistar tried. I mean, they did the right thing. It's a risk, you know, because obviously if you have a sprinter who is. Who can maybe win, but probably they've probably hoped that some of those, I mean, those top five sprinters who were still there, some of them would not be there, but the risk is there that a guy like Segaard attacks and then, you know, you have nobody left. And I think the attack of Segaard was perfect, perfectly planned, especially because Visma was pulling. They were setting the pace basically to keep Jonas out of trouble. They had absolutely no intention to chase. It was Victor Campenaerts who was on the front, who is an ex teammate of Alex Segaard. And they get along really well. Victor went to congratulate him straight after the finish. I don't know if you saw that.
- [15:26]
C
Yeah, yeah. A little home cook in there, perhaps.
- [15:29]
A
Yeah. But, yeah, I mean, they had their job to do. They was keep Jonas out of trouble, and they were not gonna chase it down. And it took a very long time and nobody had any. Any man left to. To chase him down. And then if, okay, if it's another rider, you could say maybe he's gonna die towards the finish, but not a guy like Segart. Man, he just kept his speed and, yeah, super nice win for him. Imagine the atmosphere in Bahrain.
- [15:59]
C
No. Yeah. And they get the time bonuses. Alfonso Ulalio, the race leader, sprints ahead, gets six second time bonus. Ben o' Connor kind of heads up, move, chases after him, gets four seconds. So they get a time bonus. They extend their race lead. They have the jersey for probably losing on Saturday, but then they win a stage. I mean, it is. You could tell when they were interviewing the Bahrain staff just how excited they were. That has to be good vibes inside the team.
- [16:28]
A
Spencer, Success is contagious in a Grand Tour. You know, I mean, it's like everybody's on. On cloud nine right now. And, you know, everything seems to work. It's. As we said, as I say many times, the second part of Grand Tour is there's a lot. A lot of mental struggle and a lot of. I mean, it's very different if you suffer for a reason or if you suffer just because you are in the race and you have to follow the incredible pace that other teams impose on you. It's very different, the kind of suffering.
- [17:03]
C
So I just have a few questions for you. Little speed round. Segaard's career has turned around. The guy's having the career of it, of his life. Is this related to us meeting him on the road, in the office, on a train ride? It's hard to say. Potentially, it could be related to that.
- [17:19]
A
We did meet him in. In December, right? Yeah, he was in. Well, I know he was still in lotto. Lottie Clothing. Lotto clothing, but on a Bianchi bike already, I seem to remember. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I mean, you know, listen, he's. He definitely wanted to move away from. From lotto. His brother. His brother is a trainer, works for Bahrain. He was on lotto. He left two years ago.
- [17:47]
C
Okay.
- [17:48]
A
And now he's back Together with his brother. So I'm going to guess his brother is his trainer. That's nice.
- [17:56]
C
Is.
- [17:57]
A
But anyways, at the, you know, at the core of the success, it's first of all, the, the, the big talent and the big engine that Alex Segart has.
- [18:05]
C
I would say probably, probably that's related to it. Here's another. Just speaking of odd things that I don't really understand. So the breakaway goes. It's a nice. It's a perfect breakaway for, for the peloton. For a day like today, Sudal Quickstep and Unibet are chasing like, pulling the gap back down. Visma goes up and says, what are you guys doing? Why are you doing this? They keep pulling. They. They reel it in. With 100k to go, there's now more attacks. You would imagine this is making the race harder for their sprinters who should be trying to go as easy as possible before the climb. Why is this happening? Is our team just desperate?
- [18:42]
A
Well, I think I. I think, you know, it's not necessarily harder for the sprinters, I think, because on the, on the flat terrain, that's not going to make a big difference. But. And then, you know, if. I think, if the, if the breakaway would still have had more time at the bottom of that first climb, I think Movistar would have done what they were planning to do anyway. Don't think it would make a lot of difference, but I think it, I mean, it shows that they had confidence that these guys could make it. And, you know, they did come back after the first climb, which was the longest climb, Milan came back and. And Manier came back. Grun never made it back.
- [19:29]
C
But.
- [19:29]
A
But I was surprised, Spencer, and, you know, not so much that, that they were chasing in the beginning, but I was surprised to see that after. On the second climb, where Monier really got, was struggling and he was fighting so hard, and he made it over that climb like within 40 seconds, which you would say is still doable, right? It was still 40 km. He was not by himself. It was with. There was two teammates with him of Sudal Quickstep, and there was Milan and a teammate, at least. And then there was, I think two or three guys from picnic post Nl with Lund, with Van Uden.
- [20:09]
C
Sorry, Van Uden.
- [20:10]
A
Yeah, Van Uden. So. And then I looked into the peloton and I saw Jasper Stuyven and Fabio Van Den Bosch still sitting in that peloton. So I was, I was surprised to not see them drop back because, you know, I mean, if you go for Your sprinter, it's all in, right? You know, you don't have to keep a guy up there to maybe have a shot at the win because it was good. Means Toyven is fast on the Bosch is not slow either. That's true. But they were faster guys than, than them there. So I would, I would. I mean, I would expect that those two guys were. We should have been told to drop back and just all or nothing, you know, like chase like crazy to bring him back at that point. I mean, finally they didn't make it, but finally. I mean, at that point, I think it was doable still with, with those 40 seconds. And so, yeah, I was. I think Trek had a little track. Had. Who did they have? They had. Yeah, they had one rider. I think Sobrero Ciccone was there. I don't think he could win this stage. So he could have dropped back. Derek G. Was the only guy should have stayed in there. But then maybe they don't want to leave Derek G. By himself in case there's a problem with the bike. So Chicono had to stay there. I mean, yeah, it's easy to say now, right? But especially in, in. In respect to Sudha Quickstep. I thought that Steuen and Van Den Bosche should have been told to wait and try at least to make it back with money. But finally Steven finished his fifth in the stage, I think. No. So it's not bad, but I think it was worth the gamble to, you know, play all or nothing with money.
- [22:03]
C
Another weird thing about Monier, he said he dropped his. He threw his bottles away at the bottom of the climb. And it was hot. It was like 27 degrees. And then he's like, yeah, I was pretty thirsty on the climb. It's like, yeah, dude, keep those bottles. Like, what are they teaching these kids these days? Hold on to those bottles, man.
- [22:21]
A
You would think that they had. I mean, if, if that's the plan, then normally they should have had people on the, on the, on the top of the climb stuff with, with bottles. That's the way.
- [22:30]
C
I mean, they, yeah, they might have had him on the top, though. And then he wanted a little sip on the way up. It was a long climb, but I guess my only pushback on that. And I do think it's weird they kept those guys there. I don't really understand that. But the pace was so high that Ben. So Ben Turner flats, and he's not, you know, they're chasing him and Jack Hague and then they drop back at second guy to chase and they're like 20 meters behind and they can't catch on. So for Monier and Milan, even if. Yeah, and even if they get back on, are they so gassed? Se gas, as Ben Turner said after the stage, that they have nothing left to give. That. I mean, I was shocked at how hard that was coming into the finish. And then you had Chicone attacking. Maybe it just wasn't a day for those guys. I agree. A little weird that you have. I. I kept seeing Stan on the back thinking, why aren't they dropping him back? What are they doing here? That wraps it up for. I mean, here's another off, off the wall question. Should Movistar just have done the late attack? Like, why pace at all?
- [23:30]
A
With who?
- [23:32]
C
Ulario? It's not Ulario.
- [23:34]
A
Ular with Olar, maybe with Milesi. He's the same. He's the same kind of type of rider as Seart. You know, like, I mean, actually when Milesi won the junior World Championships time trial, second was Alex Segaard.
- [23:55]
C
Yeah, there you go.
- [23:56]
A
The same type of rider. But, but yeah, I mean, listen, I mean, I think you have to try, but, but yeah, it was gonna be, it was gonna be a hard, hard call to, to. To win with Olar.
- [24:11]
C
We should say Enrique Moss looking good. Not, like, not great for him in gc, obviously, but two days in a row where he's looked really good.
- [24:17]
A
Definitely looking a lot better than week one for sure.
- [24:20]
C
Yeah. Well, let's take a quick break and then I have a fun little GC fact for you and we'll preview the next stage.
- [24:26]
B
This podcast is sponsored by IQ Bar. I've got good news and bad news. Here's the bad news. Most protein bars are packed with sugar and unpronounceable ingredients. The good news, There's a better option. I'm Will and I created IQ Bar plant protein bars to empower doers like you with clean, delicious, low sugar, brain and body fuel. IQ bars are packed with 12 grams of protein, brain nutrients like magnesium and Lion's Mane and Zero Weird Stuff. And right now you can get 20% off all IQ bar products plus free shipping, clean ingredients, amazing taste and you'll love how you feel. Refuel smarter, hydrate harder, caffeinate larger with IQ Bar. Try our delicious IQ Bar Sampler Pack with nine plant protein bars, eight hydration mixes and four mushroom coffee sticks. And now you can get 20% off all IQ Bar products plus free shipping. When you go to iqbar.com today and enter promo code BAR20 to get this exclusive offer for our listeners, that's iqbar.com promo code BAR20 to get 20% off plus free shipping. Iqbar.com code Bar20 to Covis is the go to for premium handcrafted western boots. Stop by any store location for a warm welcome, a cold drink in hand and a truly one of a kind shopping experience. Let our friendly staff help you find your new go to boots. Whether your first pair or your 50th. Finish things off with a complimentary boot brand to make them extra special. Come for the boots, stay for the good times. To Kovis Forever West.
- [25:55]
C
So Johan, not much of a GC story today. It really was just a day for the, the stage hunters in terms of,
- [26:03]
A
in terms of gc. Spencer, sorry to interrupt but you know, I find it quite, I mean not surprising but, but telling that, you know, the big favorites, they did not even try to mean or. Lalio took the six, o' Connor took the four seconds. It shows you how confident they are.
- [26:25]
C
I know. Yeah.
- [26:27]
A
Is not a podium contender in their opinion.
- [26:31]
C
Are we sure about that?
- [26:33]
A
I think so. I think so. I mean o' Connor don't, you know, do not write him off for podium. I mean he's been on the podium already in several grand tours, I think.
- [26:46]
C
Yeah, like recently. I mean the thing about o' Connor though is four seconds probably is not gonna. Because he's in competition with Orangeman, Gaul, Hindley. That's probably not going to make or break a podium spot.
- [27:00]
A
Probably. So let's hope for those guys it's not.
- [27:04]
C
But Ulalio, I mean he is, he's now 203 in front of Ironsman, 230 in front of Gall, 250 in front of O', Connor, 312 in front of Jai Hindley. And the last time we saw them, he out climbed all of them except Gall and Arnsman. So I don't know, I'd be kind of worried about it. What's the evidence that he's coming back on these climbs? I think Jonas is probably not too stress, but outside of Jonas, I would be, I don't know, I, I'm curious to see what he does. I don't think he's gonna fall apart.
- [27:36]
A
I think, I think what we need to see is how he's going to perform once he's out of the jersey. You know, let's not forget he's, he's, he's on, he's on a high now. Like, you know, he's in trance. You know, everything, everything's nice, everything's never said better. Everything looks pink. He looks pink. Pink spectacles. Now, the.
- [27:58]
C
The flip side of that is Jonas Vindergaard, who looks miserable in blue, the most unhappy blue jersey I've ever seen. So annoyed he has to wear that.
- [28:06]
A
It's not a nice jersey, actually.
- [28:07]
C
No, it's not. It looks terrible. And I think he's probably doing all this extra stuff after every stage because he's in that classification lead, but he is obsessively, obsessively at the front. I don't know if you've noticed this. He's always like, he's always in front of his team and he's in like third or fourth wheel.
- [28:25]
A
There's usually one rider of the team in front of him and then everybody else behind him.
- [28:30]
C
Yeah, I mean it should. He's dialed in. He's not messing around in the last half of this year to tell you. But someone pointed this out to me on Instagram. There's four Australians in the top 10 overall right now, so almost half of the top 10. Ben O', Connor, Jai Henley, Michael Storer, Chris Harper, and three of them fifth, sixth and seventh. O', Connor, Henley and Store are from the same town. From Perth.
- [28:55]
A
Okay.
- [28:55]
C
Yeah. Like, what are the odds of that?
- [28:57]
A
That's a first for sure.
- [28:59]
B
Yeah.
- [28:59]
C
And like Perth, you wouldn't really think of that as being cycling central, I think. Remember this guy, Jack? Bob? Bob, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Huge talent. Huge talent. I think he was from Perth.
- [29:11]
A
Yeah.
- [29:12]
C
Had some. Had some personal issues outside of that. But let's preview tomorrow's stage. Probably also not a GC stage. It is 189km. We are going into Felipe, Ghana's hometown, next to Lake Maggiore, I believe it's a really. Another one. That was a really tricky stage. Probably to ride to try to win and Predict it's flat. Ish. Rolling to flat with some bumps until 160km into the stage we get a Cat 4 climb. Then 172km into the stage we get a cat 3 climb. That is quite hard. The last 2k of this climb are over 10% average. We'll probably see something similar to stage 2 with GC moves. And I assume the race will be won there, probably from the breakaway. And then you have a 12k descent down to the finish. Johan, how's this going to play out and who's going to win it?
- [30:05]
A
Yeah, it's a very special stage. As you say, the last climb is hard. It's impossible for sprinters to make it over There it is, I would say similar to the stage that Silva won, where we saw an attack of Jonas. On that climb, there were only three guys. It was Perizzari and Van Eitvelt, who, by the way, did not start this morning because of the crash of yesterday. And then, you know, we had these 20, 30 riders come back and it was a reduced uphill sprint. Right. Could be the same tomorrow. Although I think that a breakaway does make a chance. It's a. It's a flat beginning, so it's quite flattish until the real, the real climbing starts. Sprinters teams won't work tomorrow, that's for sure, because they know that their sprinter won't make it over that steep 2 kilometer incline at the end of the last climb. So depends how far the breakaway has gone. And then it depends on which team really believes and wants to work for their puncher who could eventually either make it over the climb and sprint from a very small group or get away on that last climb. I mean, typically, I would say, you know, there's. The two main guys who could do this in this race is probably Jonathan Narweis and Julio Ciccone. In my opinion. The question is how much power do they have left in the team to control a breakaway? And also in terms of uae, for example, it's clear that Narvaez is in incredible form. How hard do they really want to try? And you know, if you want to control the break, you need. I mean, you need at least three riders. I would say they have Michael Bjork and then they have, they have Arietta, they have Kristen Narweis and who else do they have?
- [32:23]
C
You said Arieta, Kristen Berg, Narvaeus Morgado.
- [32:29]
A
Yeah, yeah. Okay, so they. Okay, they do have. Okay, looking at that team, they do have the power to, to do it, but they're gonna need to be joined by another team. In this case, it would probably be two guys from Little Track who can ride on the flat. In that case, if it's UAE and Little Track together, the breakaway can probably be kept under control. So I think, yeah, I think Narvaez is a candidate and Ciccone. I think those are the two main favorites to win the stage tomorrow. If it's not, I mean, if there's, if there's a really big battle between the GC guys on that last four kilometer climb, then it's going to be Jonas and Felix Gal, and they're not going to drop him tomorrow. Arnsmann, these guys, I mean, what we saw already on that 2 kilometer steep part on stage 2. This is harder because there's a lot more tired guys.
- [33:43]
C
Yeah,
- [33:46]
A
you know, a breakaway can make it. I think if it depends on the motivation and the will of teams like UAE and Little Track and maybe even Astana, you know, like Scaroni is probably a straw. I mean, he did crash yesterday, but he was strong in the final. He came back. So Scaroni would probably be one of the guys also to, to look for tomorrow.
- [34:15]
C
Yes, Corona is a really good pick. The odds are Narvaez plus 350 is on DraftKings. Chicone plus 900. Ghana plus 900. Thomas Silva plus 1600 Ular plus 1600 Stoiben plus 1600 Ben Turner plus 1800 Jan Kristen plus 2000. I don't hate that one. Corbin Strong plus 2500. Scaroni plus 2500 the Scrone one. I, I do like quite a lot. We should say Diego Ulisi who climbed really well yesterday, plus 3,000. Michael Valgrin plus 3,000 the Elise one. Scaroni super interesting. On the same team, I believe an Astana. The question, Johan, is would you rather control a breakaway if you're UAE for 160k or would you rather just be in the breakaway?
- [35:01]
A
Well, the problem right now, Spencer, with Narvais, for example, is, I mean, it's, it's going to have to be somebody else than Narvaeis. If, if Narweis is in the break, who in their right mind they're going to collaborate with?
- [35:16]
C
Well, would Scarroni think I can drop him on the climb?
- [35:20]
A
I don't think so.
- [35:22]
C
People.
- [35:23]
A
People.
- [35:23]
C
I mean, I, I thought the breakaway formation was so weird today. I, I, I just don't know if I think there's some desperation. Controlling it for UAE would be tough, probably. Is this the safer move because the Narvaez drops everybody? It doesn't.
- [35:39]
A
These kind of stages are sometimes, I mean, they're difficult to predict and sometimes you see things that we, we will, we will say tomorrow. Why is this team doing this? Right. But at the same time, you have to think there are not so many possibilities anymore to win a stage because there's two for sure, bunch prints for sure. And then there's what, there's still four mountain stages left, I guess.
- [36:06]
C
Yeah.
- [36:07]
A
You know, so that's six stages. So we have tomorrow stage 13. There's four stages, three stages left basically to try something and tomorrow is one of them. So whoever wants to have a shot at a stage win and they're not in the break, we can see some of those teams Actually do desperate things in. In the race that we said why? We don't understand, but at the same time, it kind of makes sense because they, you know, there's not many chances for stage wins.
- [36:38]
C
The problem with controlling the day, controlling the break, and trying to win from the peloton is how do you not get dropped by Jonas Finnega?
- [36:45]
A
Yeah, exactly. Yeah.
- [36:46]
C
So that's the. The last 3K of the climb are 9% average, too.
- [36:51]
A
So that's basically. I think. I think what I want to say is that if there's a break on the fir. And so what is it? Is it. Is it. It's like 140k right before the. Before the real. The first climb.
- [37:05]
C
I think it's 160. Exactly.
- [37:07]
A
Okay. So if you're not in the break, you still. I mean, if you're not in there and you. You. You want to have a shot at. At the stage, you still have to try to bring the break back to provoke another break and have somebody in there, you know, like later in the stage, like in between. In between moves, you know. So I'm pretty sure tomorrow we're going to see scenarios like this that we don't understand, but that's probably why they're going to do it, because they're starting to be desperate to win a stage.
- [37:38]
C
I'm going to do Narvas in the breakaway plus 350 and. Okay, I guess there's no. The beauty of Narvaeus is there's no guarantee that Jonas stays away. We saw on stage two, he gets caught out sprinted. Maybe the same thing happens.
- [37:51]
A
I doubt it, but say those names again, Spencer. So we have Narvais, Chicone. Who else?
- [37:57]
C
Ghana gotta be only because it's his hometown. He's not gonna stay with the group on that clock.
- [38:02]
A
It's gonna be difficult to be with there on that steep part. Although, you know, a shorter effort, he could probably.
- [38:11]
C
He would have to catch back on because actually, it is an important note, the climb.
- [38:17]
A
You know who I think can win tomorrow, Spencer? Ben Turner can win tomorrow. Interesting. Yeah.
- [38:28]
C
From. From the breaker, from the peloton, from the.
- [38:30]
A
From the. From the group. Like being there and coming back and winning in the sprint.
- [38:36]
C
Yeah, that's interesting. Could happen. So there's a kilometer of. There's a kilometer of rolling terrain before the descent. So if you're Ghana, if you're Ben Turner, that helps you, because it's not. You're not just going over the climb, dropping down. There's a little bit of power terrain there. Ben Turner Is at, is he even on the board? Oh yeah. Plus 1800. That's pretty good. So you're going scaroni plus 2000 plus 2500. Ben Turner plus 1800.
- [39:03]
A
Yeah, yeah.
- [39:04]
C
Okay, I'm gonna go Narvaez and Scaroni. Yan, Chris before we leave. Jan, Kristen, did we see him or is he, he's just, he's out of rhythm because of the crash.
- [39:16]
A
He seems to be struggling a bit. He did go down pretty hard also. I don't remember which stage but I, I, I don't think so.
- [39:27]
C
You almost never see guys that look off like that come back, especially young guys come back and form and what do we see today? You called it. Who was dropped first? Monier was dropped before Ghana. So we're starting to see age experience before Milan. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Ghana was dropped. Yeah, very early.
- [39:47]
A
A guy like Milan does, you know, he does have the endurance and the engine that's, you know. Anyways, I think moneyed, still did well. I mean he fought for it. He was dropped quite a bit earlier than Milan and still made it straight away back into the group of Milan. So that was, that was a good effort.
- [40:05]
C
There was even a point where they many had dropped everybody except Milan on the descent. It's like, I don't know where you going there? Like let's just stay in the group guys. What are we doing? But it shows you they really like that's a panic move. Thinking I can get back on, I can do it. So he did believe that he could get back on. But Johan, we'll let you go. We'll be back tomorrow for stage 13 and then we'll be previewing stage 14 which is going to be a big stage.
- [40:29]
A
Okay, thanks Spencer.
- [40:30]
C
Okay, bye.
- [40:38]
B
Marketing is hard, but I'll tell you a little secret. It doesn't have to be. Let me point something out. You're listening to a podcast right now and it's great. You love the host, you seek it out and download it. You listen to it while driving, working out, cooking, even going to the bathroom. Podcasts are a pretty close companion. And this is a podcast ad. Did I get your attention? You can reach great listeners like yourself with podcast advertising from Libsyn Ads. Choose from hundreds of top podcasts offering host endorsements or run a pre produced ad like this one across thousands of shows. To reach your target audience in their favorite podcasts with Libsyn ads, go to Libsynads.com that's L I B S Y N ads.com today save on family essentials at Safeway and Albertsons. This week at Safeway and Albertsons, enjoy eight piece double breaded famous chicken fried or baked dark meat featuring four legs and four thighs for just 5.99 each. Member Price available in the deli and sweet red cherries are $2.97 per pound. Limits 6 pounds member price with digital coupon plus 24 ounce selected varieties of fresh cut fruit bowls are $5 each. Visit safeway or albertsons.com for more deals and ways to save.