Can Anyone Beat Pogačar on Mûr-de-Bretagne? | OŪTCOMES: Tour de France Stage 7 Preview

Summary

THEMOVE Podcast Episode Summary

Episode Title: Can Anyone Beat Pogačar on Mûr-de-Bretagne? | OŪTCOMES: Tour de France Stage 7 Preview
Release Date: July 10, 2025
Host: Lance Armstrong
Guests: Spencer Martin and Johan Berniel

---

Introduction

In this episode of THEMOVE, Lance Armstrong delves into the highly anticipated Stage 7 of the Tour de France, held on the challenging climb of Mûr-de-Bretagne. Joined by cycling analysts Spencer Martin and Johan Berniel, Armstrong provides an in-depth preview of the stage, discussing predictions, odds, and potential outcomes. The conversation offers listeners a blend of expert analysis and insider insights, making it a must-listen for cycling enthusiasts eager to understand the dynamics of this pivotal race segment.

Stage Overview and Course Analysis

Spencer Martin opens the discussion by outlining the specifics of Stage 7:

"We have a 197-kilometer stage. This is actually a harder little stretch of the race than I thought it would be at first glance. We have like multiple 200 or near 200-kilometer stages. This is easier than today. Until they get to the finish. We have two laps of, I guess, one lap of the Muda Britannia, but two ascents of it."
[00:58]

The stage's complexity is highlighted by its demanding terrain, consisting of two ascents of the iconic Mûr-de-Bretagne, which poses a significant challenge even for seasoned cyclists. The course's final laps are particularly grueling, testing the riders' endurance and strategic prowess.

Favorite Prediction: Tadej Pogačar

Both hosts agree that Tadej Pogačar is the favorite to win the stage, with odds at +110. Johan Berniel emphasizes Pogačar's resilience and adaptability:

"If there's one guy who can beat Pogacar, if it's Mantle man on this type of finish, it's Mathieu van der Poel."
[00:00]

However, as the discussion progresses, it's evident that Pogačar's dominance is being closely scrutinized, especially in light of recent performances and the stage's demanding nature.

Contenders and Wild Cards

The conversation shifts to potential dark horses who might challenge Pogačar's supremacy:

• Mathieu van der Poel: Positioned as a strong contender with odds at +550, van der Poel is lauded for his explosive capabilities on such finishes. Berniel notes:

  "He had cramps on the second last climb. That's a little bit my doubt. But honestly, if there's one guy who can beat Pogačar, if it's man to man on this type of finish, it's Mathieu van der Poel."
  [04:20]

• Romain Gregoire: From Groupama-FDJ, Gregoire emerges as a plausible wildcard from the breakaway, with odds at +1600. His consistent performance in stage finishes makes him a viable threat if he can sustain his current form.

  "He can do it, and he's plus 1600. So I'm gonna pick him as my wild card from a breakaway."
  [08:00]

• Matthew Van der Poel: With odds at +550, Matthew is another name to watch. Despite recent challenges, his past performances suggest he has the potential to make a significant impact.

  "If he doesn't drop them on the first kilometer, then it's possible. But still, I think Pogačar, even in a sprint of a small group, he can still win this."
  [02:37]

Race Dynamics and Team Strategies

The hosts delve into the strategic elements that could influence the stage's outcome. Spencer Martin discusses the role of the UAE team:

"UAE will probably think, well, we got two sprint stages coming up, basically two rest days. Let's go all out here, win the stage, increase our lead."
[05:31]

However, Berniel counters that the narrow time buffer poses a challenge for UAE to control the stage effectively:

"With one second, it's a bigger question mark. I mean, if I am rudolphed and I need to make a decision, we're not controlling this. It's too risky."
[10:07]

The interplay between team strategies and individual rider capabilities is highlighted as a critical factor in determining the stage winner.

Betting Insights and Odds Analysis

A significant portion of the discussion focuses on betting strategies and odds interpretation:

• Pogačar remains the top favorite with -110 odds.
• Remco and Jonas Vingegaard are discussed with odds at -460 and -460 respectively, indicating strong favoritism.
• Wildcards like Romain Gregoire are analyzed for their potential underdog victories.

Spencer Martin emphasizes the importance of understanding odds and making informed bets:

"Everybody. Welcome back to Outcomes. I'm Spencer Martin. I'm here with Johan Berniel. We are predicting stage seven of the Tour de France... if you're new to this, like plus 100 would be you double your money."
[00:34]

This segment serves as a practical guide for listeners interested in wagering on the race, providing clarity on how odds translate to potential returns.

Historical Context and Performance Insights

Drawing parallels to past performances, Berniel reflects on previous stages where riders like Matthew Van der Poel showcased remarkable resilience:

"I remember four years ago, we had the same discussion... he did something incredible because as of today, it's still one of the greatest performances I've ever seen from a cyclist."
[07:24]

These anecdotes enrich the analysis, offering listeners a deeper understanding of the riders' capabilities and mental fortitude.

Conclusion and Final Predictions

As the episode wraps up, Spencer Martin and Johan Berniel reiterate their primary predictions:

• Tadej Pogačar remains the frontrunner.
• Mathieu van der Poel stands as a formidable challenger.
• Romain Gregoire is a potential surprise victor from the breakaway.

The hosts maintain a balanced perspective, acknowledging both the favorites and the dark horses, ensuring listeners are well-equipped with insights to anticipate the stage's outcome.

Notable Quotes

• Johan Berniel:
  "If there's one guy who can beat Pogacar, if it's mantlemann on this type of finish, it's Mathieu van der Poel."
  [00:00]

• Spencer Martin:
  "If you're new to this, like plus 100 would be you double your money. So you bet 100, you get 100 in profit."
  [02:37]

• Johan Berniel:
  "If he doesn't drop them on the first kilometer, then it's possible. But still, I think Pogačar, even in a sprint of a small group, he can still win this."
  [04:20]

• Spencer Martin:
  "Remco having a poll minus 460 versus Primus Roglic plus 310."
  [09:52]

---

Final Thoughts

In this episode of THEMOVE, Lance Armstrong, alongside Spencer Martin and Johan Berniel, provides a comprehensive preview of the Tour de France's Stage 7. The discussion seamlessly blends race analysis, betting insights, and historical context, offering listeners a multifaceted perspective on one of cycling's most challenging stages. Whether you're a seasoned fan or new to the sport, this episode equips you with the knowledge to appreciate the intricacies of the race and anticipate its thrilling outcomes.

Transcript

[Johan Berniel]

It's true, Spencer. It's not the same Pogacha, but Mathieu van der Poel has won here. The biggest problem, I mean, let's say if without today's stage, I would have picked straight away tomorrow to win. But with today's stage in the legs, the way I saw him finish, he was completely empty. He had cramps on the second last climb. That's a little bit my doubt. But honestly, if there's one guy who can beat Pogacar, if it's Mantle man on this type of finish, it's Mathieu van der Poel.

[Spencer Martin]

Hi, I'm Spencer Martin along with Johan Berniel, and this is Outcomes. Outcomes is for informational entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this podcast should be considered financial advice. Please gamble responsibly and if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, seek help from a professional resource. Host and guests may have financial interest in the bets discussed. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Everybody. Welcome back to Outcomes. I'm Spencer Martin. I'm here with Johan Berniel. We are predicting stage seven of the Tour de France. I will list off the odds and then we'll get Johan's take on how this is going to play out. Who's going to win? But first, if you've been listening and you think, I really want to bet, this sounds fun, but you're confused about how to do it, do not worry because we have a partner in NextBets. All you have to do is go to nxtbets.com betoutcomes and it will show you exactly where you can bet where you live and the best signup bonuses on each of the books. It's a super helpful resource. I highly recommend checking it out. I use it myself to find signup bonuses on books that I don't currently have accounts on. So I, I. It's a personal recommendation. Get over to nxtbets.com BET outcomes and you will not be disappointed. But Johan, we have. It's a 197 kilometer stage. This is actually a harder little stretch of the race than I thought it would be at first glance. We have like multiple 200 or near 200 kilometer stages. This is easier than today. Until they get to the finish. We have two laps of, I guess one lap of the Muda Britannia, but two ascents of it. The favorite for the stage with this information, it will make sense is Tadipogachar plus 110. He's dropping as we speak. Matthew Vanderpoel plus 550. Jonas Vinegard plus 1100 Roman Gregoire. Plus 1600 Wat Bernard. Plus 2500 Julian Alaphilit. Plus 2800 Oscar Onley. Plus 3, 300 local kid Kevin Vuklan. Plus 3300. They go on, but we'll call them out if and when we need to. And if you're new to this, like plus 100 would be you double your money. So you bet 100, you get 100 in profit. That's about a coin flips chance of winning. So the market really thinks Pagachar is the favorite here. But what do you think, Johan?

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, I think the same. I think the same. Especially because it's so difficult doing. I mean okay, there is a chance for a breakaway, but it is almost impossible to choose somebody from a breakaway, especially after what we've seen today. Tomorrow the stage is easier. Overall it's the last 20k that have three ascents, but at the same time, you know, if it's, it's kind of flattish until they get to the, to the local circuit. Breakaway could be in the front, but the approach to that circuit, you know, the last 10, 15 kilometers before that circuit is crazy. Peloton is flying there. So in 15k they can bring back two, two and a half minutes on a breakaway. So I'm gonna go with Pugachar. He's plus 110 for the moment. And especially on these type of climbs it's. Well, I mean Britannia is a bit different right, than all the others because this T part is in the beginning and then it flattens out. So that's why it's only 6.9%. But the first part is 15% so it flattens out and then on top it's, it's really flat. So somebody who could stay in the wheel. Yeah, if he doesn't drop them on the first kilometer, then, then, then it's possible. But still, I think Bugachar, even in a sprint of a small group, he can still win this. So he's going to be my favorite to win the stage.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, I, I agree. Actually, full disclosure, I already bet on him. During the filming of the move, I logged on to Fanduel, he was plus 130, got him there. So for Canon, technically I, we have picked the same person. I also recommend Tada Pagacha for the win. I don't know if you just mentioned this, but we looked up the win for the course and it's going to be cross tail to tail for a lot of the day, which will make it really hard for a breakaway to Stay away, because peloton will be pushed along at a high speed and they'll be nervous. So everyone one wants to be at the front. UAE will probably think, well, we got two sprint stages coming up, basically two rest days. Let's, let's go all out here, win the stage, increase our lead. I do think, and last time we were here, Matthew Vanderpoel, Mato Vanderpoel, as, as he's known to some, won over Pagachar. I think we talked about this a few days ago. It was a different Pagachar that was in 2021. This guy we're seeing now is just simply way better. But I do think there is a small pool of riders that potentially could beat Pagachar on this stage, and one of them is Matthew Vanderpoel. So my wild card is going to be Matthew Vanderpoel at +550, behind my stage pick, Teddy Pagar.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, I think, I think it's a good pick, as I said, you know. So if you look at the, the profile of M. Brania, it's so it's. Oh, it's actually 2 kilometers, 2 kilometers at 6.9. So if Vanderpool can stay there on the first 600 meters, where it's 15, yep, he could stay. And in the other, in the other case, it's also not easy for Pogacha to stay, stay ahead because it flattens out quite a bit on top. Yeah, let's not forget. It's true, Spencer, it's not the same Bogacha, but Matthew van der Poel has one here. The biggest problem, I mean, if, let's say if, without today's stage, I would have picked straight away Mathew Patel tomorrow to win, but with today's stage in the legs, the way I saw him finish, he was completely empty. He had cramps on the second last climb. That's a little bit my doubt. But honestly, if there's one guy who can beat Poga, if it's man to man on this type of finish, it's Mathieu van der Poel. And you know, he's a champion, so he may be dead today, but he can recover for tomorrow. I remember four years ago, we had the same discussion, more or less. He failed on day one, where everybody expected him to win. He actually lost some time on A la Philippe. And then the day after, he did something incredible because as of today, it's still one of the greatest performances I've ever seen from a cyclist. It was almost impossible what he did. Now he took the bonification on. On the second last climb, got caught back. Then he attacked, got the bonification to win this stage and got a gap and got yellow. So I think that's the best. The best wild card you can get.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, we. We were just verbally reliving that, and it was more impressive than I remember. He really had to, like, pull a rabbit out of its. Out of his hat. And you're right, the. The fact that it's steep and then gets less steep at the top opens that up for him. Like, in theory, he could maybe, if you squint out, sprint Pagacha on this. So I, I would pick him as a wild card because he's one of the few riders that can. But, Johan, it's also possible. As we saw today, we were sure today was not going to be a breakaway day. It was. Our breakaway guys did not win. But is there anyone from the break, if a break stays away, that you think could win?

[Johan Berniel]

That's super difficult to. To. To pick a guy from the breakaway. Right. I mean, today, at least we had. Because you. You picked Quinn Simmons. I picked from the break. They were both in there, so that was good. But of course, you know, we don't know what's going to happen in between those guys. But a guy I think could have a chance if a breakaway makes it would be Romain Gregoire from Groupama fdg. He's a punchy rider. He's in good shape. If it's a breakaway, this kind of climb, he can do it, and he's plus 1600. So I'm gonna pick him as my wild card from a breakaway.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, he's. I mean, yeah, he's really strong. I mean, what we notice all the time in these Grand Tours is it's the same people, like, rarely do you see someone come out of nowhere, I guess, like Ben Healy. But even he. There was, like, hints that he was on very good form. And Gregoire, what was he? 5th and 4th so far in a stage so clearly on good form. And, yeah, it's like a fool's errand a bit to try to pick someone from the breakaway, but I think that's a good pick because, you know, it's like, personally, I think, like, you know, Kevin Vauclan, in theory could win, but he's going to be so marked because he's in the gc. But Greg wires fit, and he's been up there with Kevin on these stage finishes, but he's not going to be marked out of a breakaway. So I, I can See where you're coming from there. But let's take a quick break and then we'll go to the head to heads, which you've been getting right at an impressive pace so far. All right, we're back, Johan. We'll do our head heads. We. You've been crushing it. We squeaked out of profit today, Autumn. But let's. Let's stay in the black here. We have TADP this on FanDuel in the US Tadipogatra minus 330 versus Matthew Vanderpoel plus 22. 25.

[Johan Berniel]

I mean, I think. I think. But I think, you know, for the sake of. For the sake of the. The odds, I'm going to assume that Mathieu can hold the wheel and pass him because it's not steep at the end. I'm going to get Matthew.

[Spencer Martin]

Is it possible Vanderpoel gets in the breakaway?

[Johan Berniel]

No, No, I don't think so.

[Spencer Martin]

It's. It's hard for him. We were talking about it offline. It's hard for him to win from those things. Like, maybe it's easier just for the team can try to control the race.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

With uae. Yeah. And play well.

[Johan Berniel]

I mean, the thing is, if they would have had more of a buffer, like one minute, one and a half minute, because at some point he had three minutes of advant on in the gc, then for sure they control the whole stage, you know, because not. Not only can they. Not only can they try to win the stage, but they want the. He stays in. He stays in yellow even if Pugach beats him or drops him at the end. Now, with one second, it's a bigger question mark. I mean, if I am rudolphed and. And I need to make a decision, we're going to control the stage. I'm saying, no, we're not controlling this. It's too risky. We can't. We can't burn up the whole team for one second advantage.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah. Next one. Remco having a poll minus 460 versus Primus Roglic plus 310.

[Johan Berniel]

Remco.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, I think so, too. Even at those odds or something's off with roglich. Jonas vinegar minus 460 versus Oscar Onley plus 310.

[Johan Berniel]

Jonas.

[Spencer Martin]

I think so. Yeah. I don't think he's quite that off at the moment. Kevin Vauclan minus 132 versus Roman Gregoire plus minus 104. I mean, here. Well, you were. You got this one right today because you deduced that Vaklan would do anything to stay in the front, no matter what.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

Gregoire would only do it if you were in the breakaway.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

Just. Just the numbers on this. The, like, the math would favor him. Julian Alfalit -152 vs Clemu shampoo on +114.

[Johan Berniel]

Was suffering today, like, really suffering bad there for. For a while. I think it's more or less the same. I think. I think a la Philippe is if he's gonna blow up, he's gonna blow up big time and then not insist. Whereas Champusa, I think will keep trying to mean even if he can be top 20, you're gonna be one. You're gonna want to be to the top 20. So champusan.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah. And the better odds. I like that one. All right, well, anything else, Johan, before we take off?

[Johan Berniel]

Nope, that's it.

[Spencer Martin]

All right. It all. It occurred to me today watching the stage. I'm like, oh, we should have put money on Quinn Simmons for the podium. I. I don't think we're. I don't think we should put money on Gregoire. I think you'd rather just pick Pagacha and Vanderpoel for the win and then Gregoire. I mean, what do you think? Is there a chance Vanderpoel finishes on the podium? I guess, like, he gets a beat by Pigachar.

[Johan Berniel]

I'm kind of fearing that Matthew is going to try and that he's gonna. He's gonna feel today, man, he's gonna feel like that's very possible. And then you explode. And I say, okay, whatever, you know, one second or two, I'm losing yellow. I'm not winning the stage. You know, screw it.

[Spencer Martin]

I, I agree. I think it's an all or nothing situation.

[Johan Berniel]

I think that would, that, that's something that's good. That would normally happen again. The Last one have 150, 200 meters. Yeah, but. Yes.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, I, I agree. I don't think we're going to do podiums today, but we'll start looking at that as this race goes on. All right, well, thanks. You on.

[Johan Berniel]

We.

[Spencer Martin]

We'll talk tomorrow.

[Johan Berniel]

Okay, Bye. Bye.