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- [00:01]
A
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- [00:21]
B
You know, it could be that I can perfectly see a scenario where Pogacha attacks, attacks, attacks. Van der Poel follows and actually Van der Poel drops Pogacciar on the podjo. I don't exclude that. Everybody.
- [00:34]
A
Welcome back to the Move plus our weekly show. This week it's a special outcomes edition. I'm Spencer Martin, I'm here with Yamile and we are predicting Milan Sanremo which is on Saturday, not Sunday of this weekend. The first monument of the 2026 season. We finally get the big guys going at each other. Taddy Pagat, Matthew Vanderpoel, Tom Pidcock, Matthew Brennan W. Benard. Very exciting stuff Johan. I'm gonna. I'll just say a little bit about the race, a little bit of the contenders, the betting odds and then we'll get your take on who's going to win this and how it's going to play out. Milan, San Remo, we all know it. 200 298km I believe it's shrinking. It's sub 300, does not start in Milan anymore. It got kicked out to Pavia. Ends in Sanremo as always pretty flat for flat to uphill for the first half they go over the Paso del Tino I believe and then they descend down to the coast. Series of climbs get harder and closer together toward the end. The big highlights though are the Chesa which is about 26, 27 km from the finish line and then they descend down that have a little flat section and then the Pogio, the final climb. It's shorter but quite a bit faster. They descend down very twisty descent into the finish. In Sano it's downhill to flat for the last 2 km. The chapressa is 6k long poo 4 4ish kilometers long. Those are the 2 deciphers decisive climbs. The odd thing about Sinremo, longest race of the year. Probably the one where you have to watch the least of it because it's important in the sense that it is putting load in riders legs, making them less explosive, changing how a sprint might play out. But really nothing happens until the base of the final two or three climbs. So you can kind of kind of condenses all the action. Toward the end, the contenders are the defending champion. Matthew Vanderpoel is the favorite. This is on DraftKings. Plus 135 Tada Pagachar. Plus 1.75meaning if you bet $100, you win $175 Felipe Ogana, last year's runner up. Plus 800 Jasper Phillipson, winner two years ago. Plus 1400 Tom Pidcock. Plus 1400 W. Benart. Plus 1600 Matthew Brennan. Plus 2200 Isaac Del Toro. Plus 2500 Tobias Lund. Anderson got the hot hand right now. Plus 2500 Mads Pederson. Is he even racing this? Plus 4,4000 maybe not a good pick if he's not in the race. But Johan, how do you think this is going to play out? It has traditionally been a sprinters race. It is becoming less and less so as the final climbs are raced faster and faster. The groups are getting smaller at the end. But how do you think it's going to play out and who's going to win this?
- [03:19]
B
Yeah, Spencer, I mean it's, it's the, one of the most traditional races on the calendar. It's, it was always quite predictable and I think it remains quite predictable with the difference that, you know, the dynamics of the peloton have changed, that there's, there are guys who are fast who can climb now also and, and you know, these guys can make the difference on the Cipresa and the Poggio and then actually make sure that the sprinters don't come back. It's a mix of both of both scenarios. Right. Let's not forget 2024, Jasper Philipson won. You know, it did break up on the Chipresa and on the Poggio but it all came back and, and Philipson won from a sprint. I do think, I think in the same scenario as last year, Spencer, for sure. What we know for sure is that UAE and Tale Pogaccia are going to go full gas on the Cipreza. That's their goal. They know that that's what they have to do to break the peloton and to get rid of the sprinters we saw last year. It almost worked, right? We had Van der Poel in Ghana who were with Pugacha. Ghana got dropped on the Poggio, came back. But I foresee the same scenario with the, the, the slight difference. I mean probably more, more or less the same outcome. But I am, as I said in our, in our podcast a few days ago, I can't see how Pugacha can drop Van der Poel or this Vanderpool, I think he's so strong. You know, I did a little bit of research, and there's people from within the peloton. I wrote it down here.
- [05:04]
A
Who.
- [05:04]
B
Who gave some information on. Let's see on. On Vanderpool's actual. One second. Where is it? Here. So Oliver Nassen. I don't know if you read this. Oliver Nassen.
- [05:22]
A
I have not read this. No.
- [05:24]
B
Yeah, this is. This is about what we talked about, that. That last test of Matthew Vanderpoel in the last stage of Tirino, right where we. Where I said, you know, I thought this was premeditated. It kind of was until it wasn't. Until Philipson got in trouble. Nassen says Van der Poel's teammates were shouting at him to stop.
- [05:50]
A
So we were wrong.
- [05:52]
B
Matthew van der Poel has made a great impression at Tirreno, and some of the episodes that the other writers are telling only reinforce the feeling that Van der Poel is even stronger than previous years. Oliver Nassen spoke about what happened in the last stage and Van der Poel's insistent forcing on the climb of Ripa Transone, with which he put many of the sprinters into the race, including Jasper Vilsen, in trouble. Naassen watched it all close up and can't find the words to describe Van der Poel's performance. I watched up close his teammates yelling at him to stop and slow down. It was simply a demonstration of his Sipresa legs. He said in the Atlas 10 Yves podcast. His effort was dedicated by pure personal interest. He really wanted to hurt us. This was really impressive. I've seen some amazing things from him this week. They convinced me that he's the number one favorite for the victory of Milan San Remo. And then I also, also saw somewhere that Nassen said he saw Van der Poel react to Del Toro's attacks and he had to break to not hit the wheel of Del Toro. I mean, you could see. I mean, I've seen a few of those reactions on. On Del Toro's attacks, and Van der Poel was straight away on the wheel, but, you know, people who saw it from close by, it must have been really impressive. Now, is that a guarantee for him to win Milan San Remo? It's not. But I do think that Pogach won't be able to shake off Vanderpool. Will they go both together to the finish? That's a different story. Right. It could also be that Poga can drop him. Let's not forget that Pogachar there's There's been a few additions because Vanderpoel won it twice now, right? He won it twice already. We saw in both of those editions that Pogachar attacked, attacked, attacked on one of the times that Van der Poel won. Van der Poel counter attacked and dropped Pogachar on the Poggio and the two others, which were Ghana and Walt von Aert, I think. And then last year, Pogachar tried to drop him, had him on the ropes, but yet again on the top of the Poo, who attacked and had Pogar on the limit, couldn't drop him. But so, you know, it could be that I can perfectly see a scenario where Poga attacks, attacks, attacks, Vanderpoel follows and actually Vanderpoel drops Poga on the poo. I don't exclude that.
- [08:29]
A
I was just gonna, I was just gonna say that because these climbs are not steep. Chapresso's 4% poo, 3 point. When you get climbs of that, it sounds ridiculous, right? Pagat, you're getting dropped. How could that, how could that ever happen? The problem is on climbs like that, how raw power, absolute power is better than watts per kilo. As we saw in Paris. You know, that wasn't really a fair fight, but Pagachar can be dropped by some of these bigger guys. Like, wow, Bernard just dropped him because he can put out more power. It's. That was cobbled, so seated is even better. I, I think that's not impossible. Johan, that Pogacha is dropped. Is he dropped in the Chapressa? Probably not. Is he dropped in the Poggio? It could happen for sure.
- [09:13]
B
Well, I mean, the only thing is also. Spencer, sorry to interrupt is that, you know, Pugach kind of has to drop Mathieu. Van der Poel. Mathieu doesn't necessarily have to drop him. Although if, if it's, if they get away, both of them together and they, they go full gas to the finish, it's still. It's a two man sprint after 300 kilometers, you never know, right? Normally it's big advantage to Van der Poel, but after a long race and because Pugach is not slow either, you know, and especially not in two man sprint. Yeah.
- [09:45]
A
Like if you look at the odds of plus 135 and plus 175, you're right. The Van der Poel, the onus to drop somebody is on Picachar. In theory, he has to go to the line solo. So Vanderpoel is the better probably mathematical pick. It's hard to imagine him Losing. We should say before anyone puts money on this, this is the hardest race to predict of the entire season. I think it's. It's very, very difficult to win this race because it's not so difficult. Someone like Pagatra can't just line everybody up and drop them. Tough. I do think, I do think if they go to the line together, it's not guaranteed that Pigato loses. You know, it's not 99% chance he loses that sprint. I think he could even. He could think about it. But if we, if we back up, the way this is going to play out, UAE in theory, what we all expect is going to line up their riders like Del Toro, Morgaro, Antonio Morgado. They're going to.
- [10:42]
B
Is Morgado doing it?
- [10:43]
A
I believe he is. Let me check.
- [10:46]
B
Sure. I'm not so sure.
- [10:50]
A
No. So McNulty grew up. Jan Christian Domin is a strong team. Domen Novak. Del Toro, Vermeesh. So a lot of power, actually.
- [11:01]
B
It's a strong team. That's true. But personally I think that they are lacking a few guys that they had last year and this team doesn't have this kind of explosiveness. The two last guys from last year to launch Pogachar were Tim Wellens and Jonathan Narvaeis. Both of them are not here because they're injured. That's obviously a very strong team. But I don't know if they have this speed that, for example, nobody has the leading out speed of Narvaeis. That explosive kick at the end. Is that what Pugach needs? I'm not so sure. As long as it's fast enough, he can still. He can still go. It just needs to go far enough. Far enough. He needs only. Bogacha needs 1 1/2 kilometer lead out. If he waits until, with. Until 2k from the top, he's not going to drop them anymore because it's not as hard anymore on the Chipresa. Yeah.
- [12:03]
A
And we should say in theory Del Toro. Very good. Right. Semi Dion Christian. Are they going to be at the front positioning? Yeah, the position positioning like Matt you have. There's a PhD level positioning test.
- [12:17]
B
Yeah.
- [12:17]
A
Del Toro has not been there in the last few years. I do kind of worry about that.
- [12:21]
B
Yeah.
- [12:22]
A
But, but so that's what we expect. They line it out. They attacked on the Chapressa. Do they have to do that though? What if they go further out like Capo ber Berta. It's 2k long at 6.2%. That's the steepest climb it comes roughly, what, 40k from the finish. Is that actually a better place for.
- [12:41]
B
Oh, no, they can't go from there. They can't go from there. What they can do, I mean, you typically, I mean it's, it has. There have been a few minor changes, but normally is the Turquino. That's, that's like a, a bigger climb, a longer climb and then you go down to the coast and then you have. I don't, I don't know the order anymore. But you have Capo Berta, capo cervo, Capo Mele, probably in the other. I think it's Capo Berta, the, the
- [13:05]
A
hardest one in the last one. And then.
- [13:08]
B
Yeah, and then you go to the Cipesa. They need to use those three couples to, to make the race hard. But they can't go from there because they're going to burn up their, their own guys already. And, and it's not, I mean, it's. They can't stay away from there till the Chipresa. So I mean, I can, I first. I could also foresee another scenario. Spencer, I don't know what you think about this. So let's just assume that Pogachar does get away on the cheap. Okay? So if I'm, if I'm Vanderpool and if I'm his team, I have plan A and plan B. Plan A is which, which I think they're pretty confident about. I'm just staying with Pugach. He's not dropping me. What if it does happen? Plan B should be okay. We try to stay with the next few guys, you know, without going over the limit. Let's say if Pugachar gets away on the Cipresa, right? And he gets 15, 20 seconds, even 30 seconds on the top. And it's Van der Poel, Ghana, Walt Van Aert, Pitcock and whoever else. I don't know. Another big engine. They're catching him before the poggio. If they work together in between the Cipresa and the poggio, they're catching him.
- [14:33]
A
So yeah, if, if they work together, which is the big if, right.
- [14:39]
B
These are, these are things that, you know, should be a scenario and probably also something that, I mean, I don't know if they still do that, but probably also something that the competing teams would kind of have a, you know, off the record conversation about, hey, if this happens, what if, you know, we just make sure that we are. Nobody's isolated. And if the three, four, five guys, because they all know more or less who's going to be there. Right. They know the fitness and the condition of everybody. That could be a way to beat Pogaar at his own game. It's a bit more complicated, of course, to make it happen in the race, but it's definitely a possibility.
- [15:25]
A
The actually the biggest risk to Vanderpool probably is Phillipson. Because if Phillipson catches back on, no one's going to work because no one wants to pull Phillips into the line. But that group you outline. Yeah. In theory they could work together. In theory they could pull Pagatro back. We should say. I don't. When's the last time we saw him reeled in? It was Amstel gold.
- [15:45]
B
Yeah.
- [15:46]
A
And then Vinagard at the tour stage, like 11 and 2024. Whatever. Like it actually does not happen very often.
- [15:53]
B
Yeah, yeah.
- [15:54]
A
But that group was working. If you go to that Tour, they were working together and they pulled them back in, so.
- [15:59]
B
And also Spencer, you know, if. If we may believe the. The latest reports on the weather forecast, they do predict a slight headwind in the final. So chipa, apparently 10 kilometer per hour headwind, which is obviously not great for a solo attack. And then especially the wind in between the Chipa and the Poo. If it's slight headwind there, then it's not easy if there's five, six guys behind, really organized, Even Pugacha is not going to stay away, I don't think.
- [16:29]
A
Yeah, like so last year they had a tailwind on the Chapressa. And also the thing about this race is the climbs are getting way faster. Like you look at the Poggio, average speed, it's increasing significantly every year. The Chapressa, the one before it is also because that was the big thing is like the Poggio was fast and then now they're one upping it where it's like. Well, both are fast. The Chapressa last year was ridden at 37.6km an hour. That was with Ghana, Vanderpoel and Piga Chart. That's the only three guys remaining. In 2020, when W. Van Art won the race, it was 32.5 kilometers an hour. So significantly faster in just five years.
- [17:10]
B
Yeah.
- [17:10]
A
But yeah, let's take a quick break and then I'm gonna. I'm gonna ask you to pick your winner. When we come back from this. If you gotta pick one of these guys and then we'll talk about why we think who else could win and why, how they could win, if that's possible. Okay, Johan. So we're back. If you had to pick One of these riders, who are you picking to win this race?
- [17:27]
B
I'm going to pick Matthew van der Poel. It's, I think it's the safest bet, especially after having looked at, you know, what he did in Tyrano. The reports I'm hearing from, you know, in the media and from inside information from within the peloton, apparently, it's, it's incredible how strong he is now. You know, he has to have that good day on the day of the race. Of course, you know, it may differ from how your condition is, but, but I think van der Poel is the, the big favorite, so I'm picking him to win the race.
- [18:02]
A
Yeah, it's hard to go against that, especially he's, he's positive money plus 135. It's rare you see one of these guys that at a monument that have positive odds anymore, as weird as that sounds. Sanremo is unpredictable. So that's probably why I'm going to pick. Just because I picked him to win every monument. I'm now having second thoughts about this. I'll pick that. A Pagachar and like a little peek behind the curtain, I've bet on both of them because with those odds, you can make money. You make a small profit no matter who wins. PIGA chart plus 175. Without pretty good odds, how do you drop Matthew Vanderpoel? That, that's, that's a tough question. I frankly think Pagatra is going to have to beat him in a sprint. I think that's the only way because as you say, with his climbing form, I don't think, I don't think they're going to drop them unless they really
- [18:54]
B
need to go full gas from the bottom of the ga. That means, in my opinion, and, and also full gas, Spencer. That means that in my opinion on uae, there's only one guy who can harm a part of Pogar, Matthew Voel. The Matthew Vanderpoel who we see now is Del Toro. All the other guys, they may pull, but they're not going to hurt him.
- [19:19]
A
Yeah.
- [19:19]
B
So it needs to be Del Toro. So that means that Del Toro needs to be in position, which has been a struggle. I mean, that we've said it already many times that those 10,5 kilometers before the chipresa, it's probably the most hectic approach of the whole cycling season to, to a critical point. It's super dangerous, stressful. You know, there's, there's usually. There was a crash, I think last year also at the bottom of The Cipresa. I do remember Pitcock was involved in the crash, so that's the first thing. Del Toro needs to be in position from the bottom, because if he's out of position, he will probably make it to the front, but he will have wasted already so much energy that it's not going to be enough to put the hurt on Matthew van der Poel. By the way, Spencer, just a little side note, we say, okay, can you go from the Cipresa alone to the finish in San Remo? It's not usual, as I said. After Strade Bianchi, I spent some time there with some American friends, and with guests were Mario Cipollini and Gianni Buno. And we spoke about Milan San Remo. So Gianni Bunio won Milan San Remo. I think if I'm not mistaken, it was 1990, and he actually went on the Cipresa by himself to the finish on his own. There was nobody with him, so it has been done before. And so, yeah, I mean, Gianni was an amazingly strong rider, probably. If I look back at the riders I raced with, I mean, Inderijn obviously was a guy who was super impressive as a cyclist, but a close second, if not. Like, if you look at the pure power, Johnny Buny is probably one of the guys who has impressed me the most in terms of strength. So it was nice to talk with him about that. He was proud to tell that story. And I think until not very long ago, it was still the fastest Milan San Remo ever. Until a few years ago. I think so, yeah. Chapeau, Gianni. It's. That was. That was amazing.
- [21:37]
A
It's a pretty serious effort to go from the Tripressa and hold everybody off. Like, we've not seen anyone do it since. And we're talking about maybe Pagacha can do it, and he can do seemingly everything. So, yeah, Johnny, tip of the cap to you. That's. That's not bad. Just. I'm gonna start throwing stuff out, and you tell me why this doesn't work. UAE starts pacing hard on the Turchino, and then it's all. It's on the whole time until Chapressa. Does that work or no?
- [22:07]
B
No, it doesn't work. Doesn't work. Spencer Turquino is. Is.
- [22:11]
A
It's.
- [22:12]
B
It's a hard. It's the hardest climb of the. Of the race. But it's so far. You know, it's like you can't. So far from the finish, you can't sacrifice your. Your team.
- [22:24]
A
It's 150k from the finish, from there.
- [22:28]
B
It makes no sense. It absolutely makes no sense.
- [22:31]
A
And then it's actually a really. I used to think this was the worst race of the year. It's now the best race of the year. Very clever route because it's not hard after that. You know, you crest that mountain pass, biggest climb of the race, and then it's rolling. Right. It doesn't get hard again for a while. Like almost 100k. So as you say. Yeah. If you sacrifice your team, then it's like, then what? You've got all. You've got this coastal road where you then want the team to be ready for the climbs coming up. So. Yeah, I think you're right. I don't think that would work.
- [23:03]
B
You know, another. Another little story just comes up to me now. So, speaking of the Turquino, so it's always been, I think, one or two years it has not been in because there was works or damage to the road or anything, but. And actually, it's funny because yesterday they both called me, these guys on video. There is one rider who won Milan San Remo and he attacked on the Turquino.
- [23:29]
A
You know, is this. And this person called you. So they're.
- [23:33]
B
Yeah, Buno was with him. So they were on their way to. They were on their way to Milan San Remo to, you know, ride with some psycho tourists. And so it's Claudio Capuchi.
- [23:44]
A
Yeah, that's what I thought.
- [23:45]
B
And he attacked was. I mean. Yeah, we spoke about it yesterday. They were together in the car and we talked about that. So he attacked. He was not by himself, though. It was. But they went on the Turkino and then. I don't know. I don't remember where he attacked the rest of the breakaway, but back then, I think it was 1991 when he won, if I'm not mistaken.
- [24:10]
A
It was 91.
- [24:11]
B
Yeah. Yeah. And, yeah, he attacked on Turquino already.
- [24:17]
A
That's in Carrera jeans. Remember that kit where it looked like jeans? Man, Glory days of cycling. Wow. So it is possible. It's hard to imagine that working, though.
- [24:29]
B
No, not like. Not in the. I do remember somehow it was bad weather and, you know, the teams were not the same way, organized. And then now. Now that's. I think that's impossible. That's impossible. I mean, it's possible if the peloton miscalculates and let the brake go, but, you know, it would not happen in today's cycling that a favorite like Capuchi would be in a breakaway and be Allowed to take enough advantage to make it to the finish. That's not possible in today's cycling.
- [25:03]
A
And so it looks like no rain, likely no rain, slight wind, potentially headwind on the Chapressa. That's not. That's not great for attacking either. How big do you think this group is going to be and. And who could win if, if these two guys don't win?
- [25:22]
B
I think there's a lot of possibilities in Milano. I mean, we kind of have to. I mean, like, imagine the scenario. It's going to be. It's going to be Vanderpool and Pogacha. But, you know, a guy like Pidcock, for example, who by the way, won Milano Torino today in an incredible fashion, Very impressive win on the last climb on the Superga. You know, if he doesn't have any issue with the positioning, I think he can stay on the wheel. I mean, he's in great shape. Obviously he beat Roglic and Tobia. Tobias Johansson, no y. And so I think he can be there. Ghana, I don't. I'm not sure. Last year I think he was in a lot better shape than. Than this year. He. Let's not forget he almost won Tyno last year. It was not far. I think he was second in Tyno. He.
- [26:23]
A
I still. Yeah, I still think he could have. He could have won that. We. We could get that one back. He. He was a harder Torena this year, and he wasn't the, like a mountain breakaway.
- [26:31]
B
The hardest.
- [26:32]
A
He was in the breakaway, the hardest stage of the race.
- [26:34]
B
He looks. He looks like he's. He knows what he's doing. He said in an interview somewhat, somewhere he was on purpose not peaking too early because he said that last year he was much better in Tirino than the week after in Milan, San Remo. But so he could be there. I mean, he's been there basically all the years. I mean, when, when it was Van der Poel and Pogacciar and Van Aert. Ghana was there too, two years, three years ago. I think I actually prefer.
- [27:05]
A
If I had to pick one of those two, I would. I would disagree. I would say I like Ghana to stay with them and Pitcock to be dropped because the climbs are so fast and mild that Ghana, you know, Kana's FTP is above 500 watts because he's so light. His FTP is significantly lower. I think it's harder for him on those, like, really power climbs. But, I mean, he's. He's obviously very talented. Today's. He won today. That was 9% average. It's like a better gradient for him. I, if I had to pick one though, I would say I like Ghana to stay with him and pit are,
- [27:40]
B
you know, to, to. On the contrary, it's, it's obviously, you know, it's, it's better for Ghana and, and van der Poel and even Vanart and Pugach. I mean, it doesn't matter where they. I mean, if it's on the flat, on the downhill, on uphill, it's, it's good everywhere for him but, and especially Pojo it. It's climbs that on the wheel you still, you get a big advantage. You need. So, you know, I'm not necessarily sure that Pitcog would get dropped even with that much less power and you know what I mean? He's the greatest, I think he's the greatest descender of the whole peloton.
- [28:16]
A
I think he might be the greatest descender of all time.
- [28:19]
B
Who knows? You know, like if they, if they look at each other on the top of the podgio and he gets five meters, man, he could be gone, you know.
- [28:27]
A
That's true. That's true. Yeah. So
- [28:32]
B
question, who is going to show up tomorrow with a dropper seat post?
- [28:37]
A
Can you still do that? Is that allowed?
- [28:39]
B
I think so.
- [28:41]
A
I would, I mean, I would be not, I would not be shocked if Pidcock has the dropper and. But you said. You bring up a good point. The last Somati Mahoric dropper seat post wins on the descent in 2022. The only one, I guess, unfortunately, that's the last like, let's call it wild card, major race winner. Because since, since Mahoric won that. I'm so sorry. Dylan Van Bara won Perry Roubaix that year, but since Van Bara won that, it's been Remco, Pagachar, Vanderpoel winning every major race with the exception of Jasper Phillipson winning Sanremo with the help of Matthew Vanderpoel. So usually it's, it comes from this elite group. What do you think about wat Vanart? Does he have a chance?
- [29:27]
B
I think so. I think Walt is in great shape. His, his form is, is going up. He's not the favorite. He's definitely not the favorite, but at the same time, I also, I'm also not sure he's getting dropped, you know, especially.
- [29:42]
A
And that's the big question.
- [29:46]
B
I think the issues I'm seeing lately with Walt is that he is, he has, you know, gotten worse at positioning, obviously because of his many crashes. That's for sure. So I'm a bit worried about his fighting for position at the bottom of Tipresa and for him to come back to the front, it will take. He usually starts in like 40 at 50 position, which is unacceptable if you know, if you want to have a chance to win. So it's going to be difficult but you know, he's not necessarily getting dropped and then, you know, if he's there after a race of 300k, he can still win in the sprint. Yeah.
- [30:25]
A
If you're, if you're looking for people that can win it. Let's say a group of five goes to line six and there's a sprint. It's still not as random as you think because it's a 300 kilometer race. There's not many riders with the quality to win a sprint after that much. Bernard, he's won this race before. It's the only monument he's won. I think it's not impossible he wins a sprint. Probably not likely as you say, because of the positioning. Someone that I could see winning, Matthew, his teammate, Matthew Brennan plus 2200. Is Brennan getting dropped? You know, like, is, is he a better climber on these types of climbs than Pidcock? Is something I'm wondering. And he could, he could flat out beat everybody in a sprint. He could be the fastest sprinter at the line. He gets to the line, he's fast, he's fast.
- [31:08]
B
But you know, again, after 300k, it's a different game. Listen, I think we have to have him in mind, but there's a small, there's a small chance. I, I don't, I don't think if, because if Brennan is there, I think there's going to be other guys there who are also fast. I would kind of think if Brennan is there, I'm. I'm almost sure that Philipson will be there too.
- [31:37]
A
Yeah, I mean that's fair with the,
- [31:38]
B
with how Philipson is really strong after, after hard race.
- [31:43]
A
The thing is though, what we just said earlier in the show, if UAE is serious about getting Pagachar off the front solo, even if that doesn't work, the speed is going to be so high that it's like a nuclear war for. It's a nuclear event for sprinters. I just. If we're going 37k an hour up the Chessa and 39k an hour up the Pogio. Are any sprinters there? I, I don't know. That seems hard to imagine.
- [32:10]
B
Yeah, no, normally not. Normally not.
- [32:13]
A
Which, it's, it's wild to watch this change before our eyes because as recently as 2020 I went back and watched the year that Caleb Yuan, remember he was third. I believe that was like 2022 and
- [32:26]
B
maybe he was in second position on the, on the. On the Podil and it kind of was attempting to attack.
- [32:33]
A
Yes. It looks like they're riding in slow motion even that recently. You know, like it is wild how fast these climbs have gotten. And UAE bringing this team is only going to make. Make it faster unless they totally biff it. It's hard to imagine actually it not being just. I think we're. We like we got a buckle in because Pagatjar is going to try to get away solo because I think it's.
- [32:58]
B
Again, Spencer, you know, it's. It's okay. They have. Obviously they have a strong team on paper, but it's not a walk in the park to get all those guys at the front in at the bottom of the Tipresa. That's difficult. You know there's going to be three guys with, with Pogachia. They're not going to be all six there for. Novak is not going to be there because that's the guy who's going to have to do all the pulling before Florian Vermeers. Probably also. Probably also. So we're going to have who? Del Toro, Christian, who is, you know, doesn't have the experience of those races yet. And who else?
- [33:39]
A
Grosshager, McNulty.
- [33:41]
B
McNulty. But you know, how good are these guys fighting for position? That's the big problem.
- [33:47]
A
Yeah. The thing about McNulty, he wins a lot of big races, like a lot of World Tour level races. More than you'd think. So he's got to be decent.
- [33:55]
B
That's more in stage races.
- [33:56]
A
No, I mean he won like GC Quebec last year, remember?
- [34:01]
B
Yeah, yeah, yeah. But you know, that's not the same race, Spencer. You're kind of. It's a race of attrition. You're kind of. If you're strong, you're automatically in front. This is completely different here.
- [34:11]
A
Yeah, I mean he was fourth at Maryland Cycling Classic. You got to be wizard to be up there. Also, he just crashed it. Remember, he just crashed at a parent knees.
- [34:23]
B
That's. Yeah.
- [34:24]
A
We'll see how he's recovered. But I did feel like two years ago they missed a big. I feel like they miscalculated and they. You gotta have like big bodies on the Tripressa. They can put out big numbers. I'd assume that's why they brought Them to just throw down the watts and try to get rid of people. But now that you're saying it, the positioning could be a problem. You know what team is actually really good when you look at it, is Visma Vanart. This guy, Timo Ketch. He is unbelievable right now. Christophe Laporte, Matteo Jorgensen, Matthew Brennan, that's. They're going to add, obviously more riders, but all of those guys are very good and very good at positioning, except for Van Aert's recent positioning troubles. So you could see them having multiple riders in a group and then is. Are they putting people in a pretzel because someone attacks and then what. What do you do if Visma has Jorgensen, Vanart and Brennan in a group?
- [35:20]
B
Yeah, I think. I think we forgot about Jorgensen. I think Jorgensen, if they go on the Cipresa, Jurgens is there for sure. With what I've seen from him in Tirreno, he's gonna be there. If. If he gets in good position. Of course, with that. With that. With this condition, he's not getting, you know, he's staying with. I think it's the best I've ever seen. Jurgensen is going to be there.
- [35:46]
A
I. I was gonna throw a wild card out. Gorian Dorian Gorian Godan, who won stage seven of Paris. Nice. Not on the star list right now. So he was plus 15,000. Maybe he was priced that way because it's not clear he's actually going to the race, but. And maybe Ineos is all in for Ghana too.
- [36:06]
B
Right.
- [36:06]
A
This potentially could just be their best chance of winning this race. Is Filippo Ghana.
- [36:11]
B
I mean, he's, you know, he's always been there in the final two runners
- [36:17]
A
in the last three years. Yeah.
- [36:19]
B
Yeah. So, yeah, it's definitely a race that suits him perfectly.
- [36:23]
A
I think I calculated in 2023. So this is. Your Vanderpoel went solo. I think Ghana did something like 700 watts average up the pogio for like, five minutes. So he can.
- [36:37]
B
He.
- [36:38]
A
He has these climbs, like, he has the ability to. To climb up them fast, believe it or not. But if you had to pick a wild card, who would you pick,
- [36:51]
B
Man? Ah, Pitcock.
- [36:54]
A
Yeah. I mean, that's. This is the state of modern cycling that our wild. Your wild card is 1, 2, 3, 4. Fifth favorite. You just don't see a lot of. You don't see a lot of random riders winning monuments. Like, you don't really see anyone outside of Vanderpoel and Pagacho winning monuments anymore. So I do think Pidcock would be as close to a wild card as we're probably going to see. My wild card would be Matthew Brennan. I think at plus 2200, I think he could win. I think that would be somewhat shocking, especially for someone of that age that's never won a race of that distance.
- [37:29]
B
Yeah, it's going to be always the first time. There's always the first time. You know, the thing is, what, where has he been racing lately and what have we seen from him? We saw him in Australia, was. He was good there.
- [37:41]
A
Well then he won Kern. Brussels Kern.
- [37:44]
B
He won K. Yeah, that's. Yeah. And then since then has he raced?
- [37:47]
A
I think he's been at the, he's been at altitude since then, I think. So that's the Vis special, right? You don't do these races, but you go, you go do altitude before classic targets.
- [38:02]
B
Yeah. And we have, we have a new first also in cycling.
- [38:06]
A
No.
- [38:06]
B
Have you. I don't know if you saw. I mean it's nothing. Not related to the classics or, or Milan San Remo, but. How about Primus Rocklis plan? No races in. No races in May, June and July. No races.
- [38:22]
A
He's on vacation.
- [38:24]
B
So he's gonna, he's gonna race until April and then no more races until the start of the Vuelta.
- [38:34]
A
That's ridiculous. Yeah, well, he's minimizing the chance of crashing, I guess. Could be one thing that's. I, I'm looking at it now. I can't believe that four months.
- [38:47]
B
Yeah, I mean, obviously, listen, if he, if he's full in to win the Vuelta and he wins it, he would be, you know, a lone record holder. It would be his fifth. Well, Tunnel,
- [38:57]
A
he won already four. Yeah.
- [38:59]
B
So that was obviously be huge. But man, I'm gonna imagine that his salary is substantial. Very substantial. And for an employer to allow, you know, you're one of your star writers, to not race during three months, it's. That's a big gamble, man. It's a huge gamble.
- [39:22]
A
That is a big gamble. Who's their gc? So at the Giro it's going to be Pelizari.
- [39:27]
B
Yeah. Belizari And Hindley.
- [39:29]
A
And Hindley. And Tour is Lipowitz and Remco.
- [39:33]
B
Yeah. And then everything in for Primos at the Vuelta.
- [39:37]
A
Yeah, I mean they have the depth to make it work. But I've never seen this before.
- [39:42]
B
I mean like professionally wise, Primos will be ready. Whether, you know, I think he probably, he probably considered that he can prepare better, especially for a three week stage race, you know, Maybe you come in the first two, three days, you're a bit off in terms of race rhythm, but on, in a three week stage race, it doesn't really matter that much. The way they train nowadays, you know, you're full of energy physically and especially mentally. You're fresh, you know, so you'll see. Maybe it's a, another, another stepping stone towards a completely different approach. Like, you know, they, they don't race at all and just, you know, show up for their big goals and that's it. It's already the case with the big guys. I mean, yeah, big riders, they don't race anymore where they don't think they can win.
- [40:31]
A
And Primo's, he has a house in teens, I believe, so I assume he's just going to be up in the Alps all summer.
- [40:38]
B
I think, I think it's close to. It's close to.
- [40:44]
A
Oh, I don't like that. I want, I want you to altitude Primos all summer.
- [40:47]
B
He's gonna be, he's gonna be at altitude for sure.
- [40:50]
A
So we want. You watched Milano, Torino today, Pitcock 1, as we said. I think we both thought Primos was going to smoke that. The way he looked.
- [40:58]
B
I mean. Yeah, the way he looked. I mean, his cadence is, it's ridiculously high. I mean, it's, it's, it's amazing if you're able to do that. You mean you have to be in great shape to have that kind of cadence. But yeah, when Pitcock went, nobody had a response because Primos finally only finished third. No, not second.
- [41:19]
A
He finished third. It looked to me like he had a sprint in him. Maybe he could have gotten second, but did not think it was worth.
- [41:26]
B
Yeah.
- [41:26]
A
Sprinting by Johan, by the way.
- [41:28]
B
Great, great reappearance of KianoBruks. Fifth place. Yeah. After his wrist fracture in Comida Valenciana. So that's, you know, that's a really good result.
- [41:41]
A
Yeah, like right there with Pelizarri and the Cepeda cousins, I believe, were like very active on that, on that final climb. But this guy, you know, this guy, Seb. Sebastian Berwick, he was seventh.
- [41:53]
B
Yep.
- [41:53]
A
It's. Has a hard time finding contracts, but
- [41:56]
B
by the way, his father is a listener of the podcast.
- [41:59]
A
Really?
- [42:00]
B
I've gotten messages from him already, you know, that we, we need to, you know, check out his son. I, I mean, I do remember him. Was he, he was on Israel.
- [42:09]
A
I think he was on Israel. And he was in the final group of. It was like a zero breakaway, I believe in 20.
- [42:17]
B
And then I think he Was, Was he not on. Was he not on Burgos or.
- [42:23]
A
Now he's on.
- [42:25]
B
Yeah, I know that. Yeah. After Israel, where was he?
- [42:30]
A
He went straight to Kaha in 2024. So he's been on there for two years. This is his last year.
- [42:36]
B
Good climber. And you know, to be there, I mean he was, I think he was like. He was top 10. No. Fifth, sixth, seventh.
- [42:42]
A
I think seventh.
- [42:43]
B
Yeah.
- [42:44]
A
Yeah.
- [42:45]
B
And you have to be. You have to be pretty good to be in the top 10 in that race. Like really good. So yeah, hats off to him really. We are, we are dad Berwick. We are following him.
- [42:54]
A
I did not know that about his dad. And I just randomly brought him up 20, 23 stage 12 JIR to tell you, he's third. And I remember he stuck out to me because he was on Israel at the time. I'd never heard of him. Very good climber. Doesn't get a contract that next year. But he's on Kaha R now. Who's going to the Tour? So now he's got a chance to start the Tour de France.
- [43:14]
B
Yeah, they should definitely. I mean they have to take him.
- [43:18]
A
You have to. They can't.
- [43:21]
B
Spencer, the news. You're one of your favorite teams. Karen Pharma. They, they're, they're quitting the sponsorship. The team is finished off season. Yeah.
- [43:30]
A
There is an argument to be made. Is it ever gonna get better than that Vuelta two years ago. Right.
- [43:36]
B
That's going to be very difficult. Three stage wins. I'm gonna say no.
- [43:41]
A
And then before we go, this, the other race of today, what was, what is the name of that? Very easy to say. Super impressive win from Philipson. Very sad for Alex Sargeant who got caught. We thought he was going to stay. Jonah Killy was the, he was in the breakaway. Last man standing. American rider. I'd never heard of this guy. 22 years old, he's on a Belgian continental team. Last year he was on a Belgian club team and then he was on a French club team.
- [44:18]
B
Wow.
- [44:18]
A
Axon Provence. So like truly taking the hard road. You know, like not racing in the US at all. Seemingly committed full time to Europe and then to be on these teams can't be easy culturally. And then to be last man standing in the break, really impressive.
- [44:33]
B
And then he. And then if I'm not mistaken, he crashed in the, in the last. In the sprint.
- [44:37]
A
Yeah. I was getting ready for this podcast. I missed that. My son said, oh, the guy from the US crashed. I was like, I can't be right. Like there's no way.
- [44:46]
B
Yeah.
- [44:47]
A
It's like, why would he be mixing it up in the sprint after being on the breakaway? But I'm seeing he's DNF'd, unfortunately, so he must have crashed.
- [44:54]
B
Wow.
- [44:56]
A
Wow. That. Yeah, the impressive ride like that is a hard. A hard road to just go. Like he's eighth at Tour of Albania 2023. Like, these are not easy races to be throwing yourself into at that level.
- [45:11]
B
Yeah. All right.
- [45:12]
A
With Johan. Anything else about San Remo?
- [45:15]
B
Nope.
- [45:17]
A
I'm Pagachar. I think probably we went through a lot of different scenarios. I think probably one of those two guys wins because nobody can climb with them right now.
- [45:26]
B
Yeah, I think so.
- [45:28]
A
Well, thank you. And we'll be back right after the race with hopefully George and Gabby. Lance Armstrong's on vacation for spring break, will not be able to join us, but he'll be back for the other monuments and we'll speak soon.
- [45:40]
B
Okay, thanks, Vincent.
- [45:42]
A
Okay, bye.
- [45:49]
C
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