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Before we had AT&T business wireless coverage, our delivery GPS wasn't the most reliable.
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Once our driver had to do a
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14 point turn to get back on route. A 14 point turn. An influencer even livestreamed the whole thing. Not good for business. Now with AT&T business Wireless, routes are updating on the fly and deliveries are on time. And the influencer did get us 53 new followers though. AT&T business Wireless connecting changes everything.
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Olivia Rodrigo the Unraveled store live across North America with special guests get tickets
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Thursday, May 7th at Olivia Rodrigo.com amongst all of the potential favorites or candidates for top places, I think the big favorite, Jonas Wingergaard is also the best time trialist of all of them. So I think that's already gonna, you know, after these two initial key stages, stage 7 and stage 10, I think Vingegaard is already gonna be in pole position and from there on, I don't think he's gonna get out of it.
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B
Everybody, welcome back to the Move Plus. I'm Spencer Martin. I'm here with Johan Berniel and we are previewing the upcoming Giro d' Italia 21 stages over the course of three weeks. Two, actually, three rest days. Rest days. They slipped an extra rest day in there, Johan, because they're starting in Bulgaria. I, I'm really thrown off by this because it's the second foreign start in a row. Normally they stagger them. Last year was Albania, this year's Bulgaria. So they'll do three stages there, rest on Monday, and then they're back in Italy. And it's the classic Giro d' Italia climb up Italy. They start in the south, they go to the north. A byproduct of this is the race tends to get harder as the, as the weeks go on. So the week is, is hilly with some sprint stages. Second week has a long time trial, only time trial in the race. Stage 10, 42k long, which is very long in modern cycling with some sprint stages, some hilly stages, probably some breakaways if you need to. That's a good time to go on vacation, get some errands done. And then the final week, as is tradition in recent years, is absolutely brutal. We have multiple summit finishes. The probably the hardest stage in the race by far, stage 19, with something like almost 5,000 meters of climbing over the course of 151 kilometers, finishing on a 10% average final climb. It's, it's a tough race. What, what are your thoughts about this course? And then we'll get into to favorites and who's going to win later on.
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Well, Spencer, I think it's a typical classic Tour of Italy course, with the exception, of course, you know, the start in another country and then on top of that, you know, having obligation of having to have the first rest day. It's not a rest day on Monday, it's a transfer day. Right. They go from Bulgaria to Italy, hard on the riders, hard on the staff.
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The staff, I assume they're driving, right? Staff.
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Yeah, well, yeah, they're driving some teams. I mean, nowadays the infrastructure of most of the teams is so big that they can actually. I mean, they're going to have to drive, but. But you know, the big vehicles, they can have a big vehicle, like a big truck for the first two day, three days, and then their second truck is already waiting in Italy with other staff and then there's a mix during a few days, people take over and then. But anyways, it is not easy to start in a. In a. In a different place where. Especially where you have three days and then having to transfer. But overall, I think it's a typical JIRO course. Heavy, loaded at the back end as usual. I think it's 40. What is it? 49,000 meters of climbing, which is strangely the least amount of elevation of all three Grand Tours, if I'm not mistaken. I think that the Tour de France of 20, 26 has 54,000 meters of climbing around, and then the Vuelta has 57,000 meters of climbing, which is. I mean, there's the most elevation in the Vuelta and so the Giro is the longest one with the least elevation, and the Vuelta is the shortest one, almost 200 kilometers shorter and 10,000 meters more of elevation. Anyways, that's just the numbers, I think. The typical difficulties of the Giro, or it's the way the climbs and the mountains are placed. Right. I think the course of the Giro is always super hard and this one is no different. You know, you could say, we could easily say that until stage seven, which is the stage two block house, which is a very, very hard climb, by the way. There's not much going to happen in terms of big differences in the gc and then, you know, on stage. What is it? Stage 10 is the time trial, I guess. Yeah, it's 10. So 40. What did you say? 42 kilometers. A typical time trial for specialists. Not, not. There's not much elevation. But still, you know, I think amongst all of the potential favorites or candidates for top places, I think the big favorite, Jonas Wingergaard, is also the best time trialist of all of them. So I think that's already going to, you know, after these two initial key stages, stage 7 and stage 10, I think Vingard is already going to be in pole position. And from there on I, I don't think he's going to get out of it. But anyway, we can go later into detail about favorites and, and candidates when
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you Just to give people an overview of the course. So I've tallied eight hilly stages, six flat like relative stages that will be contested by sprinters, six mountain stages. Here's the catch. All six of them are summit finishes. That's. That's pretty tough. Like when we talk about. Yes, it doesn't have as much vertical meters as you know. I'm just looking at a. A spreadsheet I have of years past where like for example, last year had 52,000 vertical meters. Interestingly, 2024 was another easy route, if you remember that 45,000 vertical meter. 45,000 vertical meters. The reason they do that is because allegedly they wanted Tada Picacho to come and contest it before the Tour de France. This year they wanted Jonas Vinegar to come contest it before the Tour. So they do a slightly easier route. So they. I guess it doesn't put as much load on them. If you remember back to 2024, I don't think Pagat had to ride at a pace that he wasn't setting the entire race. I kind of expect the same thing at this zero. And then we have one time trial 42k long, which will probably help Jonas Vinegard critical stages that we've circled. Stage seven, as you said stage to the blockhouse. You. I believe you guys did that. Was that late in the race? Didn't you do like a reverse tour, reverse Giro d' Italia in 2009, where you started in the north and then rode south. Is this ring a bell? You guys did a blockhouse summit finish that, that year?
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I can't remember. Spencer. I have very little recollection of the 2009 Giro d', Italia, but it's possible. It's. I do remember that Blockhouse was in one of the, I think the Giro that Jay Hindley won. I think Jay Hindley actually won that stage. He came like he. That was like one of the first surprise wins of Jay Hindley and then he ended up winning the Giro. I think, if I'm not mistaken.
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Yes, I'm. I'm going back. So he won in 2022. We'll talk about Henley. So later on. So this was the same type of structure. Stage nine was Blockhouse in 2022, Jay Henley wins.
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He wins from us in a sprint from a reduced group of five, six riders, I think.
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Do you remember who was second? Roman Bardet.
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Roman Bard.
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And then Carapace was third.
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Okay.
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Joan made it, was fifth. Looking back, actually it was. Signs were there that this was, this was going to be Jay Henley's Tour or Jay Henley's Giro. But as you say, like, it's a really hard, really hard summit finish and usually shows you who's going to win. Like it's 13 and a half K long at. Am I seeing that right? At like eight and a half percent. That's brutal. So stage seven, I, I think the race probably decided on stage seven. I think Jonas Vinegard's gonna have an amazing ride there. Stage 10, time trial, stage 14 in the Aosta Valley. It has a really tough summit. Finished 16k long at 7%. Stage 19, which we will be watching together in Belgium, they go over the passage. Well, Passo Joao and then the summit finish. Almost 10, 10% average summit finish. And then Piankavala's stage 20 is a 15k long summit finish. So.
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But also to get back to stage seven, sorry, I mean, this is really very exceptional in Today's cycling. Stage seven, blockhouse. 244 kilometers. Yeah,
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B
super long, super long.
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A really, really long stage.
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It's like a monument inside of a Grand Tour. And you know, they have five stages in this Euro over 200k, which doesn't sound like a lot, but you know, to go back last year had only had three. The year before had four. You got to go back to 20, 23 to find something that sets the
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Giro apart from, you know, other Grand Tours in modern cycles that they do keep these long stages in there. I don't know if that's good or bad. You know, the, the sometimes the explanation of the, the, of the race director. I don't know if he's still a race director now, but until last year I forgot his name now. Mauro Veni. Mauro Veni, yes. He said, you know what? If you can't race those races of 200, and something kilometers, you're not worth of winning a Grand Tour. So I mean, he has a point. He has a point. It's the same for everybody. But you know, I think it does take away to the spectacle, you know, and, and the aggressiveness of the riders. I mean, obviously if you have to do 250k, I'm just checking here, so 244k, 4400 meters of elevation on stage seven. That's. That's a considerable. I mean, it's very odd stage. Very odd stage.
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B
I think one. That's one translation. The other one I think is the towns that will pay me money to start and finishing them happen to be very far apart sometimes, and that's too long stages. But they. In his defense, he has this.
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It's.
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B
It's like a romantic view of a Grand Tour, that it is a literal tour of the country it's in. And if, you know, just. All you have to do is look at the map. If you look at the map of the Tour de France, they are just picking something with the Vuelta, like, they're just picking their spots. The Giro d' Italia is. Actually starts at one end of Italy and goes to the other end of Italy by the end of the race. It's cool how they do it. I. It's very romantic. The byproduct is you get a lot of transition stages. You know, like there's. We remember the Giro often for like the Jai Hindley year with Carapaz. Like, wow, what a thrilling year. No one, though, because it was one on stage 20. No one remembers, like, oh, nothing happened for the first 19 stages of that race. And that can be a downside to this, like, literal interpretation of a tour of a country.
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Yeah, well, nothing happened to them. I think if you would put that statement in front of all the participants of that year, they would not be your friend, Spencer.
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Well, that. That is a good point you bring up, because nothing is happening in the zero, like from a TV perspective. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. But it's often because the race is so hard and everyone's so afraid of the third week that it's really conservative. They almost ring the riders dry, and there's less like, quote, unquote action because of that.
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Yeah, well, and then on top of that, in the Giro, typically, you know, because we. We are still in. We are in the spring and the Giro, especially in the Dolomites, you know, we can. Giro is unpredictable. I think it's the most unpredictable of the three ground Tours, although, you know, we have this heavy favorite now with Jonas Vingard, and, you know, it. It is quite predictable unless something unexpected, unforeseen happens. But, you know, the weather. You know, the weather is always a factor. There's always something happening in these high mountain stages, usually, which is also typical for Italy. They have no plan B and they have to chaos the night before, and then they have to come up with an emergency plan, like, you know, nobody knows until they get to the start. What's going to happen? Which is quite likely. It's going to happen again in one of the stages, I think.
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B
Yeah. I mean, do you remember. God, it feels like this happens every year, but maybe it was last year or the year before in Lavino where. Because they have these deals where they have to start to collect the money. So they'll start and then have everyone jump in the team buses when they get out of town and they kind of drive somewhere.
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A
Yeah. And terrible and wet. They have to get in the bus, get changed. Yeah, that's. That's not pleasant as a cyclist at all.
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B
No, no. And it is a very good point. Very unpredictable.
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What was that? I say it's likely to happen again in one of the stages.
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B
Yes. Yeah. So it's likely to happen. You don't know when it could happen. Oftentimes the hardest stages with the like the, the potential to create the biggest time gaps are the one that could get canceled. So it adds this extra layer where if you're Jonas Vinegard, you think I gotta take time early because I can't wait for the third week. Because the third week might be a criterium in Milan, not a, you know, three summit finish week. So you don't really know what's going to happen. It's kind of a chaotic layer to the race that is fun for us, but probably not so fun if you're in the race and you're trying to not freestyle.
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If it's a crit series, it would be in Rome. Finish in Rome. Right. But a funny thing also, I, when I was looking at the map, we actually passed through Milan and it's, you know, in the. Some. Somewhere in the middle of the race. In the middle of the race. And then they go to Rome, which is also.
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B
Well, I think they have like a three, it's like a three or four year deal with Rome to finish there. And it has, you know, it's been pretty good stages.
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It's looked good and it's nice to finish in Rome. It's always a nice, you know, scenery, you know, with all the monuments and you know, the historic, historic places that there are in Rome. It's always nice to finish in Rome.
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B
Yeah. And it's been very, I mean, I guess they've gotten lucky with the weather, but that time of year. Yeah. Stage 15 finishes in Milan, that's really funny. Just a sprint stage. But it's looked really good on TV the last few years when they finished in Rome. They, they also visit. That's they visit two nations capitals in this race, which is kind of unusual because they finished stage three in Sofia, which is the capital of Bulgaria. Stage I've got to admit I once worked for a company that had an office in Sofia. So that's how I know Sophia. I don't know the other towns in Bulgaria that well. So we started Nesbar finish in Burgos and then Burgos to Valinko, Ton Varro, ton ovo.
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Maybe the only thing I have of Sofia and Bulgaria is that when I was a junior racer I got one sent by the national team to an international track meeting in Sofia. And I remember, you know, the food was so bad. It was. And the only thing we were eating and that I don't, they have really good yogurt, Bulgarian yogurt. That was like the, the only thing that we were eating there was yogurt. So I, I, I do remember they have very good yogurt in Sophia.
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That, that's it, that's the book on, on Sophia. I just remember like being afraid. They're like straight dogs. Like I don't want to get bit by one of these dogs. Gotta stay away from them. But I'm, I'm excited to see their countryside.
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A
This was in the mid-80s, Spencer. So, you know, I think a lot of things have changed in Bulgaria since then, you know.
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Yeah, we're gonna find out.
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It was still, it was still like the pure like communist country, you know, behind the Iron Curtain. Back in the days have the last,
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B
the last three foreign starts for the Giro have been Hungary, Albania, Bulgaria.
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A
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
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B
So they're, they're committed to giving us a peek behind the old, the former Iron Curtain. But we can take a quick break, Johan, and then we'll talk about who's going to win this race. Does that sound good? So Johan, you mentioned it, but the big favorite for this race, Jonas Finard here preparing for the Tour de France, question mark. We don't really know but he's going to be at the Tour. Safe to say that this isn't his only target of the season. But the Visma team is incredibly strong. They brought an A team here. They're clearly not messing around. And if you look at the books right now, this is on draftkings. This is wild. Jonas Vinegard is the favorite at minus 575. I don't think I've ever seen that for a three week race. Giulio Pelizari, the young Italian plus 500, second favorite at plus 500. Felix Golf, third favorite at plus 14. Hundred. Adam Yates. Plus 1800. Jai Henley. This guy, former winner of the race recently, plus 2000. Egan Bernal. Plus 2000. Former winner. Time in Armsman, plus 2500. He goes on and on. We'll call him out when we need to. But who do you think is going to win this race? I assume it's Jonas Vinegard.
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A
Yeah, I think it's, you know, like he's the overwhelming pre race favorite. You know, I mean, he's won Pyrenees very dominantly. He's won the Tour of Catalunya very dominantly. What else did he win? Did he win another race?
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B
Perry. Nice.
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A
Catalunya. Yeah, that's.
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B
Did, did he not win another one? Am I losing my mind? Hold on a second. No, you're right. He's only raised two races this year.
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A
Two wins, you know, like not even a question he was not gonna win. I think this, this course suits him also perfectly. You know, there's lot, lots of long climbing. There's the time trial, which in my opinion, amongst as I the favorites, he's the best one. You know, people say, oh, you know, it's only one time trial, so it's good for, I mean, Jonas is one of the best time trials in the world, especially in stage race in big stages. No, he's won some and he's been always, almost always top three in, in, in long time trials. So I think we have to say for sure Jonas is the very, very big favorite, the only favorite, I would say. And the rest is, you know, it's a battle of who can be on the podium, you know, and it's. We, we, we, we talked about Jay Hindley and Eam Bernal and Adam Yates and Felix Gal, who was, was he fifth in the Tour or four. He was fifth in the Tour last year. And so, you know, deliberately didn't choose the Tour de France this year. And goes to the, goes to the Giro also had a pretty good season already, I think. You know, he was up there in almost all the big climb stages of the races I've seen. So. Yeah. Then we have Ben o' Connor, who's trying to find his spot again of a couple of years ago.
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B
Yeah.
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A
We have Derek G. Which, you know, I don't think we can count him amongst the favorites right now because we haven't seen anything pointing into that direction this season. Although he was fourth in the Giro. Was it last year?
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B
He was fourth, yeah, last year.
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A
Yeah, yeah, yeah. But you know, who knows? You know, maybe he finds his legs and you know, a grand Tour everybody starts from zero, you know, I mean, we don't know. I don't know what happened to Derek G. I saw that he did not start in this last or the second last stage of Tour of Catalunya. So maybe he was injured or sick or. I don't know. But. But yeah, other than that. I mean, the question is, you know, what would have happened if, for example, I mean, there was a lot of speculation around Joel Madea going to the Giro as being an objective. Would it. Would the heavy favorite status of Jonas Vingegaard has changed with Almeida? I don't think so.
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B
Yeah, I don't think so.
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A
Winner. Ex winner and ex runner up of the Giro, Richard Carapas, also not at the start. That would also have changed Jonas Vingegaard situation. I think it would have made it much more interesting for the other places. The fight for the podium and the fight for top five, which I think personally is going to be the most interesting part of the race. Plus, you know, a number of sprint stages and I think quite a few possibilities for breakaway stages, which is also very entertaining.
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B
Yes, I, I assume that Jonas is going to get an early lead. Visma is going to let a lot of breakaways go and it will make that breakaway. You know, it's gonna, it's going to be open, open bar for guys like Felipe Zana. Who are we talking about? Mateo? Yeah, like these guys. This, this is I think gonna be a good year to tell you for guys like them. Also gonna be a big. Probably Jonathan Milan, I assume is going to be targeting a lot like trying to turn a lot of these hilly stages into sprint stages. This is kind of Milan's time to shine. He's not going to the Tour France, is he? Like they're doing this weird one, one year on, one year off with him and Petterson.
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A
I mean he, he won. What did he win one stage last year or two stages at, at, at the Tour and then he, he won the green jersey.
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B
Won the green jersey.
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A
Yeah, but, but yeah, I mean, I think there's quite a. I mean I think there's at least six or seven possible sprint stages. We still have to see if that's going to be the case then. But you know, that's going to be also entertaining. You know, I mean, we have Jonathan Milan who's I think considered as, I mean, I think we may say the fastest sprinter of this field. You know, has a strong team. You know, he has a great lead out train with Consoni and Max Wallshade, for example. So very well trained team to lead out. Then we have Dylan Grune, who's the, you know, in. Has already four wins this year with the. The. What's it called? The Rose Rockets. Is it called the Rose Rockets? The. The Rose Rockets?
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B
No, Unibet Rose Rockets, I believe.
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A
Rose Rockets, yeah.
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B
Yeah.
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A
So their first Grand Tour. That's going to be interesting. I think they definitely can get a stage win in their first Grand Tour, which would be amazing, you know, just, you know, considering how this team has started and how far it has come in such a very short time. We have Kaden Groves, who is the ultimate Grand Tour sprinter, especially in the Giro. He's a strong climber amongst sprinters, so there's a few stages where he can get good results. And also since Alpecin Premier Tech don't have a GC guy is everything for Kaden Groves and breakaways. Then also interesting to see Paul Manier, young Paul Magne, who's at the Giro. You know, we expect some confirmation from him. Who else do we have? Oh, we have Tobias Lunderson.
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B
Yes, yes.
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A
You know, is. Is, I think underrated, but. But quite fast. And then we have for the first 10 days only Arnold Ali on Lotto Intermarshe, who has just come back to competition after, you know, having some health problems in the beginning of the season. And just in his first race back last weekend, straightaway won his, you know, his home race for the third time. He won that race in Wallonia. So he. He already said that he wants. He. He goes for 10 days to get his form back on track and then probably go to the Tour to. With. With the Giro in the legs or the 10 days of the Giro in the legs. So, yeah, there's. There's quite some sprinters. You know, I think the two top sprinters are the three top sprinters on Milan and Grunevigen and Kaden Groves. But there's a lot of others who, you know, typically in the Giro, we sometimes see these sprinters that we don't expect to take away stage win.
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B
Well, we're going to play a quick game here. Well, also here we're going to play a quick game where you're going to pick who you would bet on. You're going to pick who you think is going to be top three in the GC and who's going to win each classification and then who you would bet on because some of the odds are so crazy that it's not necessarily trying to do that. But just as a quick explain, a quick to point this out to people. So 42k long TT that's good for the time trial is bad for the climbers, right? Well, I think it's good for Jonas Vinegard because listen to this, I'm looking at long time trials. He's done in Grand Tours. So you know last year at The Vuelta Espana, 24k long time trial on stage five, he's second place. You go back to the Tu de France in 2024, 33k long time trial, stage 21, he's second place behind Bachar. You go back to a 40, I forgot about this. A 40k long time trial in 2022 in the Tour de France he finishes second to W. Vanart because he partially gifted the stage to W. Vanart. So this guy's a very good long, very good long time trialist.
- [26:52]
A
Like this is in stage races.
- [26:55]
B
In stage races, yeah. See if we line up for a world championships, it's different.
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A
Yeah, yeah, that's for sure. He's the. Of all the DC guys, he's the best time trialist by far, I would say. By far.
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B
Yeah. And it is. So it's interesting how different the placings can be if you do a long time trial on a stage race. And really what we're seeing is these GC guys are getting so good at time trialing in stage races like Julio Pelizar. I bet he's going to be great in these time in this time trial, but maybe wouldn't do great in a standalone one off time trial. So here. So who do you think is going to finish top three in this race? Let's start with that.
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A
Jonas Wingard first, Julio Polizari second. I'm doubting between, I'm going to say Aegon Bernal third.
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B
Aegon Bernal third. It's interesting, very interesting. And so Bernal is plus 400 to finish on the podium. So that would be a good bet right there. I'm going to. Just because you said Jonas Vinegard, I'm going to pick Julio Pelizar to win. Jonas Vinegard second. Actually no. Julio Pelizarri. This is a, this is just the bananas pick that I'm doing. Belazzari first. I do think he legitimately could win. Jai Henley second, Adam Yates third. Because I think in this scenario Jonas Vinegard has had a problem and left the race, has not finished.
- [28:31]
A
Okay, that's a possibility.
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B
Henley is plus 400 to finish on the podium and he's been very good this year. I'm surprised he's that far down. The problem is he'll probably have to do some work for Pelizarri. He's minus 250. That's why.
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A
That's why I didn't put him on the podium, because I think Lizari is the economy leader. And we know all, we all know that Jay Hindley is not afraid to work for someone else. He does the job. I put Egon Bernal on third because he's been pretty good. You know, he's been. Was it top?
- [29:08]
B
What was second at Tour of the Alps, right?
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A
Of the Alps. He was second. He was up there in Tyrano.
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B
And he was fifth at. Fifth at Liege. Yeah. I mean, he's been the fifth at Liege and out of a sprint, too. Super impressive. He was not at Torino this year, so he's only done. He won the National Championships. No, just done one stage race. Tour the Alps. Okay.
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A
Oh, yeah, that's true. He came late to Europe, now that you say that, because he had some problems with his visa.
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B
Crazy. That's not good. If he's having a problem with the visa, that's not good for the rest of us. That's not good. I don't want to hear that.
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A
He did admit, though, that it was kind of his own fault because he left it too late.
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B
Yes. It's a common issue. Are we just writing Adam Yates off? That would be the one writer that I don't quite know what to do with.
- [30:09]
A
No, I don't think we should write him off at all. You know, it's a great opportunity for him. You know, and it's. He's still a top rider. No pressure on him. You know, who knows? Maybe we see the rebirth of Adam Yates the year after the rebirth of his brother, Simon Yates. Who knows?
- [30:30]
B
Yeah. I mean, crazier things have happened. Being his twin brother winning last year just out of the blue, after he didn't even look like the strongest rider on stage 19. And then he wins the race.
- [30:42]
A
Imagine that, Spencer. Imagine Adam Yates winning the Giro, Twin brothers winning the Giro two years in a row.
- [30:49]
B
Yeah, it would be. It would be wild. It's not. It's honestly not impossible.
- [30:53]
A
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
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B
Because as we learned our lesson, we like the lesson we learned that last year is the Giro is. Cannot be contained. Like, whatever you think is going to happen maybe won't happen because it's a crazy race. But. So Jonas van der Guard, minus 575 to win. So that's an 85% chance. Like the implied odd odds are 85%. That's probably about correct, actually. I bet he does have an 85% chance of winning, I think.
- [31:22]
A
I think even further, Spencer. I think even, you know, say 85%. I think Jonas Vingegaard can at 85% of his maximum good win.
- [31:31]
B
Yeah, I agree. I agree. So, technically, if you think that you should bet on this, you know, you bet a hundred dollars, you would win a profit of 17. So, you know, maybe it's worth it. I get a little nervous when the odds get like that because what happens if Jonas gets sick? What happens if he falls over? You know, at that point? This point, that's what we're worried about. That's how he doesn't win this race. So would you bet on him? Would you put money on a 5. Minus 5,75 rider?
- [32:03]
A
Not worth it. It's not much to gain. It's, you know, I'd rather. I'd rather put money on. On the guy who can get second and third or third. And then with. With the calculation that something might happen to Jonas. Right, That's. That's probably a better bet because something can happen. There's 21 stages. There's, you know, there's climbs, there's descents, there's bad weather. You know, stuff can happen and, you know, it's not the first and wouldn't be the last time that the favorite or one of the favorites doesn't even finish the race. We don't wish it on anybody, but unfortunately, it happens every year.
- [32:42]
B
I feel like at the Giro, the Giro just eats guys. Eats favorites too. Remember Bradley Wiggins rolled up and he just. Just stuff wasn't clicking from day one. Like it happens all the time. But this is a boring podcast because I agree with you. I think people should bet on the rider they think is going to get second with the hope. Not the hope with the. The. With the logic being that Jonas could have a problem and leave. So I've. I've personally bet on pelizar already at plus 500. I think Adam Yates at plus 1800 is kind of interesting. You know, Jai Henley at plus 2000. Maybe. Maybe the podium for him. Bernal, plus 400 for the podium. These are the interesting ones to me.
- [33:22]
A
A lot of pressure on Pizzari, you know, now. Now that we're talking about him, you know, like young Italian. His best place is fifth, I think, in a GC or sixth.
- [33:31]
B
Fifth. But he did it two times in a row.
- [33:35]
A
You know, he did it at the
- [33:36]
B
0 and the V. Sorry. Yeah, yeah, yeah. The 0 and the VT last year, which is pretty impress.
- [33:41]
A
The Giro was, you know, like, he, he got better through the Giro and was actually with the two or three best climbers at the end of the Giro. The Vuelta was opposite, I think, you know, he started really well, won that stage, and then kind of at the end broke down. Let's not forget he, he lost the white jersey to Matthew Racatello on the last mountain stage on stage 20.
- [34:07]
B
And we were wrong. He got sixth overall. Both of those. Not fifth.
- [34:11]
A
Yeah, yeah. Sixth. Yeah. Okay. So, you know, I mean, obviously, I think, I think it's, it's okay to put him as a second favorite also because of his current form this season. Right. But if you look at all the other riders we've talked about, we say Hindley Bernal, Adam Yates, these are all Grand Tour winners or at least podium finishers. Adam Yates was third in the Tour de France. Belizari has finished two times, sixth last year. Of course, he's still young, super young. Let's not forget that three years ago, was it three years, Two years ago. Two years ago, this was this young kid who was in awe of Egon Bernal, of Tade Pugachar.
- [34:53]
B
He was like his biggest fan and
- [34:55]
A
he mowed him down so got his glasses and he was happy. And now he's, you know, the, one of the favorites to be on the podium of the Giro. Pretty time, time it goes. I mean, it's not that long ago. This was 2024.
- [35:10]
B
I know it feels like yesterday to me. I remember watching that stage vividly. And he was a debutante.
- [35:17]
A
Published a picture From, I think 2020 or 2019, when Billy Jar is a kid and takes a picture of another kid at 19, 20 years old. Did you see that picture?
- [35:31]
B
Yeah, yeah. You're like, that's crazy. I feel like that just happened. What's happening? What's going on right now? Yeah, did you see this, did you see this headline where Pagachar is. He's Armstrong esque. Because he has a blacklist and he doesn't let you win if you're on that blacklist.
- [35:46]
A
Did you see this? Let me tell you this, this. Okay. It's good you mentioned this because I, I read this article today in Willow Review and it's come, it comes from this, and I'm gonna say it here. This unbelievable idiot of a journalist who thinks that he's, you know, the, the, the all. He knows everything, you know, because he has raced. I mean, he was, he's a frustrated. He was pretty talented in the young categories and he's frustrated that he never made it to the pros. Of course, you know, his theory is he didn't make it because everybody was doping and he didn't. That's his story. I read that.
- [36:25]
B
That's what I say, that. That's what happened to me, by the way.
- [36:29]
A
Yeah. Okay. Okay. Excuse me.
- [36:31]
B
Okay.
- [36:32]
A
Anyway, but, you know, it takes more than talent to make it to the big league. And then once you're in the big league, it takes a lot more. You know, if it would just be doping, it would be pretty easy, you know. But anyways, you know, he's gotten on this horse of, you know, the. He's. The. He's the purist. You know, the. The. The moral teacher of all the journalists, doesn't have a lot of friends amongst the journalists. But, yeah, he wrote this article that Pogachar is ruthless, that, you know, he's intimidating people. For example, he gave the example that on stage one in the Tour of Ramandy that Bogachar criticized Lipowitz for not collaborating. And he applauded the other two writers, who. It was Martinez and who was the other guy? Nordhagen. He applauded them, you know, and then he criticized Lipovitz, and that was, in the eyes of Zonnevelt, was intimidation. And then you could see that the stage after it worked because Lipovitz did collaborate, which is bullshit. You know, listen.
- [37:46]
B
Okay, well, yeah, yeah, the race situation changed.
- [37:50]
A
Yeah, yeah. And he says, you know, it's like Armstrong, but Pogachia is nicer. He doesn't have so many enemies. You know, he's more likable. But the. The tactics, the mental games are the same, which is. I mean, anyways, I'm not surprised it comes from him. I'm surprised that other. Other media outlets take this story. So, I mean, I know.
- [38:15]
B
Well, I know that I saw it and clicked on it. So I know that that's probably why they're doing it.
- [38:20]
A
I know that a lot of media outlets take our stories and our quotes. So I'm going to say it here. Sonnevelt, we know you were not friends, but you're an idiot.
- [38:29]
B
I don't know this gentleman. I've never met this gentleman before. You know, I only bring it up.
- [38:33]
A
Missing out on anything, I only bring it up. Maybe you're going to meet him, Spencer, at the end of the month. Maybe he's coming to Wheeler Club. We can have the conversation with him.
- [38:42]
B
Oh, boy. I'd rather not. But I only bring it up because I do feel strongly about this, because. Johan, why are we doing. You Know why Tade Picach? I bring it up because of Pelizarry. They couldn't. There couldn't be a nicer man on the earth, right. Than Julio Pelizarri loves Tade Pagachar. And you know what Pagachar did to him? Mowed him down to win a race. Do you know why? Because he likes winning bike races. Like, it's that simple. The guy likes winning bike races.
- [39:10]
A
He didn't mow him down at all. You know, if you remember that stage, I, by coincidence, I saw the images a few days ago and you know, it was. I think it was the stage over, if I'm not mistaken. Was it over Monte Grappa? I think.
- [39:29]
B
No, no, no. It was like into. It was. It was the stage in. To do, you know, like Ortasai Saint Ulrich, kind of like the ski resort Ortisei.
- [39:41]
A
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
- [39:42]
B
So you kind of like go up by the. The Schlern or what they call it, like Alp d'.
- [39:47]
A
Sousie.
- [39:48]
B
Yeah, yeah. So it was. It's kind of a goofy stage.
- [39:52]
A
He was, you know, and he, he caught. He caught Pelizar who was in a breakaway. And if you look, he says something and he tries to take him with him for about a kilometer.
- [40:05]
B
Yeah. I mean, he was shot, like, couldn't normally.
- [40:10]
A
He would just go past him. He tried to take him with him. So anyways, listen, if you're in a bike race and you have to, you know, I mean, you don't have to let anybody win, you know, I mean.
- [40:22]
B
No, and I don't want you to. I want to watch. I've invested my time. I want to watch the best guy win. Maybe I'm a weirdo, but it, it. Johan, if he beats you, do you know why he's beating you? Do you think it's personal? No, it's not personal because he's.
- [40:36]
A
He wants to win bike races.
- [40:37]
B
Number one, because he wants to win a bike race.
- [40:39]
A
Number two. Number two, which is often forgotten when people say, oh, you know, he wins. He wants to win everything. What is he going to say to his teammates who have worked the whole age from start, from kilometer zero to keep the breakaway under control and then you get away with somebody and you let him win, that's like, okay, well, you know, that's. That's what we're pulling for, you know?
- [41:01]
B
Yeah, yeah, you'd be. I mean, I don't. I don't know. When you see stuff like that, do you think it's a. It's a case of people in the media never being in a team before, like on a team sport, where these riders are slightly accountable to the people that are sacrificing themselves and doing a
- [41:21]
A
lot of work for them. No, I think it's, it's. It's usual and typical and kind of normal also. Normal reaction to somebody who's so dominant. You know, it, it. I like to see that the strongest guy wins and I. And if it's dominantly, I love it. The thing is that it's very predictable and, you know, people like to see change. You know, if. Now, for example, if you look at Tour of Romandy, Pokacha won four stages of the six. He did it in different ways. You know, like he won in the sprint and he went in a reduced bunch sprint and he went alone and then again alone. You know, what else do you expect? I mean, if that's what he should do. And I think it's nice to see that a rider who has won so many races still, that's what people don't understand. People who have never raced and people who have never been there, they do not understand. Even if you have won more than 100 races, the joy of winning once again is undescribable. You cannot describe. I mean, even if you got used to winning, that new win is always a pleasure, which is ultimately what you're doing it for. You know, Pugachar, he could say, hey, you know what? I'm just going to win gcs. You know, I'm getting paid the same. You know, I'm just going to win gcs. Which he could do. He could perfectly control the race, get away in one stage with another guy, then drop that guy and get away with another guy and gift the stages. He could do that. What would people say then?
- [42:59]
B
I. I can't stand. Maybe I'm. I don't like, I hate that. Like, I just want to see the best guy win. I was surprised. There was people shocked that he didn't let Florian Lipowitz win the final stage of remedy. Why would he let a rival? Doesn't make any sense. He's trying to pummel these people into submission before he even gets to the Tour. He also, as you said, he just wants to win. It's not personal. There's no blacklist up on the team bus where they're. That's. It's all so ridiculous. Like, he just wants to win. We're also talking about that if a country is not in this race. But yes, Julio Belizari, we feel good about Him a lot of pressure on him. Did you see this quote too about this? I don't know if I believe this that Paul success is. He's gaining 20 watts a month in his FTP. It seems a little high, but it
- [43:51]
A
does bring up that I've not seen.
- [43:53]
B
That brings up the point that Pelizarri is improving. So we talked about his results last year. To me he looks like a different rider this year. Two of the Alps, super impressive. I'm quite excited to see how he does this year. So let's quickly. I just want to ask your thoughts. Points class Points classification. Jonathan Milan -155 to win. That's probably fair, right? It's, it's. I know that the Giro does. I don't think they give as big of a weight to the sprint stages relative to the other stages, which can make it hard for a sprinter to win. Paul Monier plus 400. Tobias Linda Anderson plus 400. Kaden Groves plus 1200. Kaden Groves is kind of the interesting one there. Ben Turner plus 1600. Dylan Grodenvegen plus 2000. Who do you think wins this points classification?
- [44:40]
A
I have almost no doubt it's going to be Jonathan Milan.
- [44:44]
B
If he finishes the race.
- [44:45]
A
He probably, I have to say, I have to say, little side note, you know, just now, now, speaking of Milan, I haven't done the research, but
- [44:55]
B
I've
- [44:55]
A
seen him less impressive than other seasons. I haven't seen that much except those sprint stages he won in the early. Was it UAE or was it Alula and UAE Tour?
- [45:09]
B
Yeah, it was incredible. Yeah.
- [45:10]
A
You know what, that's already like. It seems like ages ago and it's different. It's completely different now. Different rivals. You know, I, I also don't know. I mean he. I don't think he did that many stage races after that where he could have won stages. Anyways. Jonathan Milan is, you know, the top sprinter. I think he's the big favorite for the Chiclamina.
- [45:41]
B
Chicklamino. Yeah, yeah. Chick would be the plural feminine of chicken. So Jonathan Milan, I actually think he's kind of underpriced here at plus or minus 155. That's actually. That might be the best deal of any of these bets. And then young rider Pelizar's -500. Leonard Vanette felt +1000. Alessandro Pinarello, who's a very good rider, +1100. The thing about this though is you're like, well, Pelizar is going to win young riders jersey, right? Slam dunk. But is it as big of a slam dunk as Jonas Finnegaard winning the overall. Because basically, who do you have more confidence in finishing this race, Jonas Finegaard or Julio Pelizarri?
- [46:26]
A
We have to start from me. We have to assume that both are going to finish. So yeah, for me, Pelizari is definitely the big heavy favorite for the white jersey.
- [46:39]
B
And unless he crashes like in this opening stages, this probably isn't going to get any better. You know, I, I, you might not get a better shot at it than minus 500.
- [46:47]
A
Yeah. And there's the mountains jersey also.
- [46:51]
B
No, the mountains jersey. It's not on the odds.
- [46:58]
A
Okay. I mean that's either, that's either gonna be Jonas or Judo Chicone maybe.
- [47:10]
B
Chicone. Didn't he win it last year? Wait, no, no, he crashed out last year.
- [47:14]
A
He won it in the Tour one year.
- [47:16]
B
Yeah, that's what. So Fortunato won it last year, which actually you don't see a lot of. Yeah, Picachar won it over Pelizarri in 2024. 2023 was Tebow Pino. Derek G was second. It's kind of an unpredictable jersey.
- [47:36]
A
Yeah, it depends on breakaways. You know, how many of these breakaways get over a lot of climbs and then sometimes mostly not, not including the last climb. You know, so many points for grabs in, in climbs where breakaways will get over that. That's the most unpredictable one, I think.
- [47:58]
B
I wouldn't bet on this personally. Yeah, Too hard to predict.
- [48:03]
A
Agree.
- [48:04]
B
Do you have, did you have someone in mind like, I guess? Yeah. Chicone. Yeah, he could do it. And if, especially if we think this is a breakaway fertile race because Jonas already has it wrapped up, that's a good bet. Who do you think is going to win stage one on Friday? It's, it's a pretty much a nailed on sprint.
- [48:26]
A
Yeah. Milan.
- [48:28]
B
Milan.
- [48:28]
A
Milan. Milan. Yeah.
- [48:31]
B
You picked Milana because I was going to pick Dylan Grunevigen because the Unibet Rose Rockets are here. It's their first Grand Tour in team history. And what a way to start your first Grand Tour. Right.
- [48:44]
A
By the way, we talked about first Grand Tour in the other podcast in last week. You know which teams were had the Tour de France as their first Grand Tour? Yes, there's been many. I gotten a lot of, I've gotten a lot of messages.
- [49:02]
B
What was the most modern one? Do you remember it?
- [49:05]
A
The most modern one? I don't mean first of all. First of all, the most, one of the most historic ones was 7 11.
- [49:17]
B
Yeah. Yeah.
- [49:18]
A
711 the, you know, the Pioneer American team in the 80s, I think before that, I mean, early 80s, it was also Cafe de Colombia, the Colombian team, which, you know, there were basically still amateur riders with Lucho Herrera that. And they, and they actually won stages and the king of the mountains jersey. More recently, I had an ex cyclist, Bo Hamburger. Do you remember Bo Hamburger?
- [49:47]
B
I remember Bo Hamburger well. Best name in cycling.
- [49:50]
A
He messaged me to say that he was on a team, was. I think it was called Memory Card Jack and Jones or something. Or the, the, the, the former, the former version of CSC afterwards that they had their first Grand Tour in, you know, early 2000s, I think. I think we talked about U.S. postal in 97.
- [50:16]
B
I think six.
- [50:17]
A
Six or seven. Yeah. And there were others. There were others. There's been many. There's been many teams who did the Tour de France as their first Grand Tour.
- [50:29]
B
Well, they've definitely stopped doing it. ASO has. I mean, I. The Tour is so different than it was in the 80s and 90s. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. I would think it's. I think the riders would be fine. Just the staff. I feel like everything would feel like it's moving 100 miles an hour. But clearly ASO has made a decision that they don't want to do this anymore because they, I, I can't remember, like, if they've done it. Even though, like, they. It definitely is uncommon in modern cycling for them to invite Grand Tour debutantes, but I think Dylan Graham could win this first stage. Milan, obviously heavy, heavy favorite for a reason, guys. A great sprinter, but as you say, has he been as impressive this year as years passed? He's plus 100. Paul Manier plus 250. Tobias Lind. Anderson is not a bad pick. Plus 700. Groenevegan plus 1100. I, I might.
- [51:20]
A
That's a good.
- [51:20]
B
My own money on gronovaging. Yeah, I, Yeah, that's worth it. He, he's been really impressive this year and he's a Tour de France caliber. Tour de France winning caliber sprinter.
- [51:30]
A
Yeah, yeah.
- [51:30]
B
At the Giro. A lot of experience. I could see him doing it. Obviously Milan, though, is a favorite for a reason. Other things we wanted to mention. The strength of Visma is. Is pretty impressive. I, I was shocked when I saw their start list for this race. This is a Tour team. They have. Outside of Jonas Vinegar, they have Victor Campenaerts, Wilco Kellerman, Timo Kilic, who's very good. Sepkus, Bart Lemon, who's a truck. Davide Piganzola, who last Year was on Pulte visit Malta. I believe he was like, as your to tell you, a specialist at that team. And their last rider is Tim Rex, who's also very strong. So they've. This is. I mean, they're gonna have multiple guys doubling up at the Tour. Like.
- [52:18]
A
Yeah, they are obviously a team that is designed knowing that they have the heavy favorite and they have to control the whole race.
- [52:25]
B
Yes.
- [52:26]
A
That's the, you know, that's the way this team is designed.
- [52:30]
B
Which kind of makes me like, obviously that's a very strong team. Jonas is probably going to win the race. Having said that, it. I like where Red Bull's at because Jonas is here with Visma and they're going to control the race. Red Bull has Jai Henley and Pelizarry and they have a strong team. You know, they have guys like Nico Dens, Johnny Moscon, Mick Van Dyke, Alexander Vlasov working for them. And all they have to do is sit back and see how the race comes to them. So I, Yeah, I like where they are.
- [53:02]
A
Yeah.
- [53:02]
B
I mean this year was a race where you can do that.
- [53:05]
A
It's true, it's true. But you know that at the end of. At the end, at the end it'll still come down to Jonas going on the climbs and whoever can try that
- [53:14]
B
time trial too is. Time trial is a big problem for everybody else.
- [53:18]
A
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
- [53:20]
B
I mean, of the GC guys, is there anyone like, think about time trialist amongst the GC riders who would even be close to him?
- [53:31]
A
Derek G. Derek. Derek G. Maybe it's a good time trialist. But again, you know, it's, it's. Derek G. Obviously doesn't have the best of first halves of this season. Maybe it all changes now in the Giro, who knows? But he's a good time trialist. But I still think that Jonas is a better time trialist, especially in Grand Tours. I mean, it's. This is after 10 stages. It's a completely different game after 10 stages. I know. You know who's not? Definitely not. I mean, one of the potential co favorites or podium candidates who's definitely not at the level is Felix Gal. He's not a good time problem.
- [54:11]
B
Well, didn't he also just recently lose a podium position or GC position because remcovenepo attacked him on a downhill?
- [54:19]
A
Yeah, yeah, that's.
- [54:21]
B
People will have noticed that. And if he's on the podium in the final week, I assume that's going to be a point of emphasis for a lot of teams.
- [54:27]
A
Yeah.
- [54:28]
B
You know Who's a sneaky good Grand Tour time trialist or just stage race? Time trials in general. Adam Yates, very good. Yeah. Yeah. Like it's 20, 24 tour to Switzerland. He finishes second in the TT behind. It's an uphill TT, but it's still similar to Joelameda. I think it. God, there was a race recently. Was not recently in the last few years where I was. Wait, no, that was his brother Simon. Hungary.
- [55:00]
A
He won the time trial in Hungary.
- [55:02]
B
Yeah, that was crazy.
- [55:04]
A
In the Giro. Yeah.
- [55:06]
B
So you can't, you can't count these Yates out, but it, it does illustrate everyone else is basically starting behind Jonas because that time trial suits him so much. Also, the block house stage and every other uphill some have finished will probably suit him. So I'm not envious of anyone's job trying to beat him. But I think, I think the strength of the team means they're going to have. Visema is going to have to take control and it takes pressure off the other teams, even if Jonas is still formidable.
- [55:37]
A
Yeah, I agree.
- [55:40]
B
Anything else that you're looking forward to? Excited about keeping an eye on?
- [55:44]
A
Well, we're going to be here talking with everybody every day, Spencer. Every day on Mondays, Right. When it's a rest day or transfer day. But yeah, I'm. I'm getting ready for the Giro first Grand Tour. Excited.
- [56:01]
B
Yeah, it snuck up on me and this Friday start really has me thrown off, but I'm excited. Yeah, we'll be here every day after every stage, talking you through how it happened, predicting the next, the next stage. So I'm excited about that, Johan.
- [56:14]
A
Okay, thanks.
- [56:15]
B
Thanks, Spencer.
- [56:15]
A
Speak soon.
- [56:16]
B
Talk to you soon.
- [56:17]
A
Bye.
- [56:24]
B
Marketing is hard, but I'll tell you a little secret. It doesn't have to be. Let me point something out. You're listening to a podcast right now and it's great. You love the host. You seek it out and download it. You listen to it while driving, working out, cooking, even going to the bathroom. Podcasts are a pretty close companion. And this is a podcast ad. Did I get your attention? You can reach great listeners like yourself with podcast advertising from Libsyn Ads. Choose from hundreds of top podcasts offering host endorsements or run a pre produced ad like this one across thousands of shows. To reach your target audience in their favorite podcasts with Libsyn ads, go to Libsynads.com that's L, I B S Y N ads.com today.