Can Vingegaard Hold On With Almeida Closing In? | Vuelta a España Stage 18 Analysis & Stage 19 Preview | THEMOVE+

Summary

THEMOVE Podcast Summary

Episode: Can Vingegaard Hold On With Almeida Closing In? | Vuelta a España Stage 18 Analysis & Stage 19 Preview
Date: September 11, 2025
Hosts: Spencer Martin & Johan Bruyneel

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Overview

This episode dives deep into the analysis of Stage 18 of the Vuelta a España, a dramatically shortened time trial, and previews the upcoming Stage 19. Hosts Spencer Martin and Johan Bruyneel dissect the results, strategies from top teams (particularly UAE and INEOS), emerging GC battles, and share their stage predictions. The conversation showcases their insider perspectives—Bruyneel as a veteran DS, and Martin as a sharp tactician—blending technical breakdown with humor and personality.

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Stage 18 Analysis – Key Points

Ghana's Dominance in the ITT

• Filippo Ganna wins the shortened 12km time trial (originally 27km), putting in a powerhouse performance:
  • "Ghana went out a little slow, but then Ghana went real fast and then Ghana won." – Spencer Martin [01:48]
  • Average speed: 56 km/h; final 4km at a staggering 62.7 km/h (approx. 39 mph).
• Jai Vine surprises with second place, less than a second behind Ganna, after leading early.
  • "He loses 10 seconds in the last 4km to Filippo Ghana, which shows you how fast Filippo Ghana was going." – Spencer Martin [01:58]
• João Almeida (UAE) takes third and claws back 10 seconds in GC to now sit 40 seconds behind Jonas Vingegaard.

Impact of the Shortened Course

• Short format meant fewer GC shake-ups.
  • "There just was not a lot of distance to put a lot of time into people." – Spencer Martin [00:51]
• Almeida only able to take back 10 seconds; if the stage had run the full 27km, both hosts speculate losses for Vingegaard could have been significantly greater.
  • "Jonas was very honest to say that it would have been worse for him. 27 km, it could have been 30 seconds." – Johan Bruyneel [06:23]

UAE’s Team Tactics Questioned

• Both Bruyneel and Martin perplexed by UAE putting multiple riders (Vine, Ayuso, Oliveira) at full effort in the time trial, potentially risking support for Almeida on the decisive mountain stage.
  • "Just save everything for stage 20, man. It's like it's on stage 20. It's going to be all or nothing." – Johan Bruyneel [05:22]
  • "I can't believe UAE did that... They've been so bad. It's like, do you have no shame?" – Spencer Martin [12:22]

Ineos’ Revival and Head-Shaving Bet

• INEOS scores its third stage win (Turner, Bernal, Ganna) despite lackluster GC campaigns.
  • "They failed in GC, but you know, they had a stage win early on with Ben Turner. Egan Bernal won the stage and now Filippo Ganna." – Johan Bruyneel [06:34]
• Entertaining discussion on the ongoing “head shave” bet within INEOS:
  • “So every time they win a stage, there's somebody who is picked out already on beforehand who has to shave their head.” – Johan Bruyneel [07:20]
  • Next up: Bob Jungels, notorious for having "the best head of hair in the peloton." [07:56]

Changing Team Dynamics in Pro Cycling

• INEOS' resurgence attributed to Dave Brailsford’s management return, but broader context signals they’re no longer the most attractive team for young stars.
  • "Young riders want to go where? To the sexy teams. Right. So they're not. They're not sexy anymore for the moment." – Johan Bruyneel [09:15]
• Transfer rumors: Red Bull’s roster spot and possible burnout of Oier Lazkano discussed.
  • "When the team is asked... team directors say that they have instructions from the team to not talk about it. So there's obviously something deeper going on..." – Johan Bruyneel [10:45]

The Tight GC Battle & Race Psychology

• The Almeida vs. Vingegaard duel: Only 40 seconds separate them after the time trial.
  • "For the moment, the balance goes to—it's clear that Almeida is... has the moment, more momentum than Jonas. But Jonas just needs to hang on and Almeida needs to attack and drop him." – Johan Bruyneel [15:30]
  • UAE’s collective attack discussed: "UAE needs to come up with a plan and needs to use Groschartner first and then Jay Vine to really put the hurt on Visma and see if Jonas cracks." – Johan Bruyneel [15:54]
• Vingegaard’s psychological profile:
  • "He is…sometimes in a bubble. I remember years ago… he said the blue jersey, which one is that?... He's so focused on his performance and he's just in the bubble of his team." – Johan Bruyneel [17:11]

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Ganna’s TT:
  "I saw sometimes 64, 65 kilometers per hour. And it's clear that, you know, nobody was close." – Johan Bruyneel [03:13]

• On the tactical puzzle:
  "You need a team collective approach. Vine, in my opinion, on the form he is, is the only one who can do damage...save everything for stage 20." – Johan Bruyneel [13:37]

• On the level of the GC contenders:
  "These top guys are so closely matched. The only time a difference gets made is when…the mental part is brought in or mistakes." – Spencer Martin [15:01]

• On Vingegaard:
  "It's not that he's bad. His shape is okay. In my opinion, it's good enough to win the Vuelta." – Johan Bruyneel [16:17]

• On the nature of Grand Tours:
  "If you're in a Grand Tour, you do lose sense of time and space…you do lose the sense of reality." – Johan Bruyneel [17:30]

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Stage 19 Preview & Predictions

Course Overview

• 162km, short and hilly, with a 2.3km uphill drag to the finish (3% average).
• No categorized climbs, but terrain is described as ‘hard.’

Sprint or Break?

• Both hosts anticipate a sprint finish despite terrain.
  • Johan: "I think bunch sprint for sure. And even if it's a bit uphill, I'm going to pick Jasper Philipson." [22:38]
  • Spencer: "I'm gonna go Mads Pedersen...He looks so strong though, and it's uphill. I believe Mads can get another win here." [23:40]

Wild Card Picks

• Johan: Ben Turner (INEOS) – "INEOS is on a roll...so Ben Turner is going to be my wild card." [26:42]
• Spencer: Jake Stewart (Israel-Premier Tech) – "He's beaten Jonathan Milan in a bunch sprint this year...I'm gonna go Jake Stewart at +5500 to win." [27:06]

Analysis of Sprinter Form

• Noted the fatigue factor:
  "The difference between the, the big pure sprinters and Mads Pedersen, who is considered not a pure sprinter...is evened out because of the fatigue." – Johan Bruyneel [24:24]

Points Jersey Dominance

• Pedersen’s consistency:
  "Every other stage race he did, he won the points jersey...Pretty impressive, stat." – Johan Bruyneel [24:56]

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Final Thoughts

• Stage 19 is expected to be a relatively quiet day for GC, with hosts encouraging listeners to take care of errands.
  • "If you have any errands, go get them done. The protesters seem to not care about stages that don't have GC implications, so I'm sure we'll run smoothly tomorrow." – Spencer Martin [27:43]
• All eyes on UAE’s tactics and Almeida’s legs for Stage 20, which could decide the Vuelta.

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Ganna’s TT win analysis – 00:51-04:56
• INEOS and the Head-Shave Bet – 06:34-08:05
• State of INEOS and team transfer talk – 08:34-10:45
• GC battle breakdown (Almeida vs. Vingegaard) – 12:51-16:44
• Stage 19 preview and betting picks – 22:38-27:32

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The podcast balances technical cycling analysis with sharp banter and unique insider tales, offering valuable context and predictions for Vuelta a España fans—especially as the GC battle heads into its decisive weekend.

Transcript

[Johan Berniel]

Jonas has, you know, he spoiled us in the past with certain performances that now he can't produce. But he's still always there with the first guys and he has an advantage. So, no, it's not that he's bad. You know, his shape is okay. In my opinion, it's good enough to win the Vuelta.

[Spencer Martin]

Everybody, welcome back to the move. I'm Spencer Martin. I'm here with Johan Berniel. We are breaking down stage eight 18 of the Volta Espana. What was supposed to be a 27 kilometer long time trial was reduced to 12 kilometers and was won, as we predicted, by Filippo Ghana, who ripped the course at 56 km an hour, going about 60 km an hour for the last half. J Vine comes in second, an unexpected second. We did not see this coming. He was less than a second back. Joao Meda third. Bruno Amaril fourth. Evo Oliviera fifth. So a lot of UAE up there. Three UAE in the top five. Ghana winning Ineos gets their third stage win. The GC implications of the day were, I guess, reduced because of the time, because of the distance. There just was not a lot of distance to put a lot of time into people. But Almeida pulls back 10 seconds on Jonas Vinegard, so he's now 40 seconds off the lead. Tom Pickock slightly increases his lead to Jai Hindley by a few seconds. Julio Pelizar loses some time to Matthew Riccatello, but stays in fifth place. Riccatello takes a little bit of time on Felis. G moves into sixth overall with G in seventh, three seconds behind him. And then at the end of the stage, at the end of the day, at the end of the podcast, we will preview stage 19. But, Johan, I think the. If I had to sum up the day, I would say Ghana went out a little slow, but then Ghana went real fast and then Ghana won. And then Jay vine came along, went out, even went out fat quite a bit faster than Ghana. Put three seconds on him in the first, basically 5K. And then he's the only one to stay with where he loses the races. He loses 10 seconds in the last 4km to Filipo Ghana, which shows you how fast Filippo Ghana was going. He averaged 62.7 miles an hour in the last four kilometers.

[Johan Berniel]

Kilometers.

[Spencer Martin]

And yeah, four. Last four kilometers. Aim. Four minutes.

[Johan Berniel]

I guess that's 62.55 kilometers per hour.

[Spencer Martin]

Miles. Miles an hour. I'm kidding. Kilometers an hour. And that is really fast. Like, like, like highway fast. You actually might be very hurt if you fall off at that speed. And then vine gets Close. That was, to me was a surprise of the day. Hameda looked quite good. We were confused why UAE was up there. But what is your take of the. Take away of the day?

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, well, takeaway, obviously, is Ghana winning? You know, he. We hadn't seen him at all in any of the stages and, you know, I mean, it's difficult not to see him because he's a big guy, you know, But I checked today and he has never been in any stage except the team time trial. He has not been in the top 30 on any of the stages. And there were some stages that were actually quite suited for him. So. Yeah, I mean, the way he finished this time trial, Spencer is unbelievable. I think he. I mean, he said also in his interview he got a few corners wrong at the beginning. The first part was a bit more technical. And then when he saw he was behind, he just drove it to the finish. I mean, yeah, those speeds I saw sometimes 64, 65 kilometers per hour. And it's clear that, you know, nobody was close. Nobody. I mean, there were, there were a lot of riders who were ahead of Ghana in point one, a lot of them. Then a bit less on point two. But still, you know, Stefan Kuhn was decently ahead. Jay vine was also ahead of him. And then just, you know, he just took. Took a lot of time back in the last 4.2 kilometers. I mean, 4.2 kilometers in four minutes. That's just insane. Yeah, it's.

[Spencer Martin]

It is.

[Johan Berniel]

It's a world record. It would be a world record on the, on the track.

[Spencer Martin]

Wow.

[Johan Berniel]

You know, because. And, and this is already with 8km. I haven't done 8km already. So I think the world record is what it was at 359 or 350. I mean, 358. 359. I mean, he is actually, he's. He, he does have the world record. Right, people? Ghana. No, no, I don't keep up with.

[Spencer Martin]

Track as much as I used to.

[Johan Berniel]

No, no, no, no. You know who has the world record on the.

[Spencer Martin]

Jonathan. Milan.

[Johan Berniel]

It's Milan. Exactly.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, Milan.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah. Anyways, different, you know, on a road bike and there's, you know, it's, it's, it's different, but still. Yeah, four. 4,200 meters in four minutes. That's crazy.

[Spencer Martin]

That is crazy.

[Johan Berniel]

And then, you know, another, Another thing and I kind of. We kind of feared for it a little bit yesterday and yesterday I said, you know, I will not understand if it happens. And it did happen is that UAE has guys like Jay vine and I use. I used to also. I used to win also full gas. And Oliveira going full gas.

[Spencer Martin]

Where?

[Johan Berniel]

I mean, I mean, obviously. Listen, I mean, what, what the hell do I know? You know, But I just think that it makes no sense. They're not chasing another win. I mean, I think vine could be. I mean, vine could have been. Okay, maybe he could have, but I don't think he has ever beaten people Ghana in a time trial. He's obviously on great form, but man, just save everything for stage 20, man. I mean, it's like it's on stage 20. It's going to be all or nothing. Right. And even more so after shortening the time trial. I mean, I think one of the other thoughts of the day is what if, you know, what if it would have been 27km. Now Almeida takes 10 seconds back on Jonas. If it would have been 27km, what would have translated to. Jonas was very honest to say that it would have been worse for him. 27 km.

[Spencer Martin]

I mean it was about a second, a kilometer. Yeah, he lost and it was basically 2 seconds a kilometer in the last third of the course. So he was fading pretty fast.

[Johan Berniel]

It could have been 30 seconds.

[Spencer Martin]

Right.

[Johan Berniel]

And in that case he was 20 seconds down before the last hard stage on Saturday. So anyways, we will know. We won't know. And then another thing, Spencer, third win for Ineos. I mean, three stage wins. They failed in gc, but you know, they had a stage win early on with Ben Turner. Egan Bernal won the stage and now people Ghana. So three stage wins. Now the question is the question. This is the most interesting part of the whole day. Spencer, after this third stage win, which INEOS rider has to shave his head.

[Spencer Martin]

What is the deal with that though?

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, so you know, they had this thing and every time they win a stage, there's somebody who is picked out already on beforehand who has to shave their head. It's not the guy who wins. Right. The guy who wins doesn't have to shave. So Narweis had to shave it already after Ben Turner won the stage.

[Spencer Martin]

Looks like he's a shaped head.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah. And I heard that the next guy is Bob Humus.

[Spencer Martin]

Oh, you know, I did hear this too.

[Johan Berniel]

He was the next guy too. So we'll see tomorrow if Bob Jungos has a shaved head or not.

[Spencer Martin]

And he's maybe got the best head of hair in the peloton. Shout out hims but wow, that guy's got it. That's sad. If they, if they shave it.

[Johan Berniel]

Well, hey, you Know, he signed up for it.

[Spencer Martin]

He's. He's been. That's what the money's for, Bob.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

It's for shaving your head, we should say. So this is their 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7th World Tour win since basically in less than the last two months. So, like the last seven weeks. And that's when Dave Brailsford came back to the team. So it's like instant turnaround. I mean, who knows how much Brailleford. Brailsford has, like, affected this.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

But they are winning quite a lot at the top level since he's come back.

[Johan Berniel]

I mean, they're back in the game. I mean, back in the game, they're not where they were. Right. And the question is the question of whether they can get back. And if. If they get back, it's not going to be overnight. Right. It's going to take a few years.

[Spencer Martin]

Well, they don't have the right personnel step. Step one would be get the right personnel. But at least they have, like, these. These talents in the team. Producing, which is a good sign. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Like, I don't. It'd be like, so if you went to ineos and we're like, johan, you have to win a Grand Tour. You have to win the tour with this team. Like, telling someone like, here's a paperclip. You have to fly to Europe, it's like, well, that's not going to work.

[Johan Berniel]

So some changes need to be made. Yeah. And then also, I think the biggest challenge is. And that's where the shift has happened. You know, INEOS or Sky. Back in the days, you know, potential big talents or potential Tour winners actually wanted to go to ineos or were actually very eager to go there because they know that. They knew that there they would have the best entourage, the best support. That has changed now. You know, they're not on the top of the list anymore of the, you know, young riders want to go where? To the sexy teams. Right. So they're not. They're not sexy anymore for the moment. They can become sexy again, but there's some work to be done.

[Spencer Martin]

Well, I think, yeah. Also there's an effect of if all the young riders go to the sexy teams, they then become less sexy. And you might start thinking, like, any of this is a pretty nice setup and there's no one to lead that team, and then you might go there. I. I did hear a rumor today that Red Bull has a free roster spot next year. So the question is, who's not coming back to Red Bull that they think might. Might be coming back. But you're right.

[Johan Berniel]

So, j. I think if I would have to guess, I have. I don't have that information. I didn't have that information, but if I would have to think, I'm gonna say it's Oyer Lascano.

[Spencer Martin]

You know, I was just gonna say.

[Johan Berniel]

That maybe quit cycling or something.

[Spencer Martin]

Wow. You know, I mean, because I was gonna say, I don't think I've heard from that guy for months.

[Johan Berniel]

No. Last race was Barney Rube. And you know, when there's. Obviously there's a lot of things. I mean, I think it's. I don't. I mean, I don't know if he's sick or if I. I'm thinking more towards a burnout, you know, or not being able to deal with the pressure. He took all his social media down. And when the team is asked about what the situation of Ojo Lascano is for the moment, why he's not at the races, team directors say that they have instructions from the team to not talk about it. So there's obviously something deeper going on there which, you know, could be burnout.

[Spencer Martin]

Wow. It's sad to hear that big talent.

[Johan Berniel]

I mean, he's. He had all these great results in. In big races and in the front in the final of classics and, you know, this year he's been nowhere.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, but you see, you were right. Jayvine has never beaten Filippo Ghana. So the question we have is how the heck did the sports books know that he should be second favorite? I do not understand that. If anyone has any insight into that, please reach out.

[Johan Berniel]

But I think it's based on form. Right. He's obviously in great form, but, you know, let's not forget the day before. So two days ago. No, yesterday he was. He got dropped on before that last climb started when Ben Tulip was still in. In the race.

[Spencer Martin]

So you've been nowhere for the last two mountain stages?

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, yeah. I don't know.

[Spencer Martin]

I mean, you would think too, like, that Almeida would be the better time trialist. I'm now looking right now to see the. Almeida has beaten vine eight times in time trials. Vine has beaten him three times, including today. So that is funny that he would be so. I mean, to me, I. I can't believe ua did that. I mean, I can believe it, but I can't. I can, but I can't believe it. Because they've been so bad. It's like, do you have no shame?

[Johan Berniel]

We will find out on Saturday. Spencer, what's happening you know, if Almeida has the support he needs. I mean, first of all, Almeida needs to have the legs himself. Right. So that's the first condition. But then if you, I mean, now with 40 seconds. Because he's 40 seconds down.

[Spencer Martin]

All right, 40 seconds down.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah. So. Well, first of all, who knows if they're going to be able to go up the Bola del Mundo the last three kilometers. Right. That's the first, the first question. And then secondly, based on what we have seen so far between vingegaard and Almeida, 40 seconds are not going to happen in the last 3km.

[Spencer Martin]

No.

[Johan Berniel]

Even if it's steep, he needs to play all or nothing. And for that, you need a team collective approach. You know, vine, in my opinion, on the form, he is, is the only one who can do damage. Vine and Groschartner. But, you know, I mean, look, Groschartner, I mean, I haven't checked him. He didn't, he didn't go full gas today. He knows what. He knows where he has to be, you know, on, on, on Saturday.

[Spencer Martin]

No, I, Yeah, yeah. I don't get it. Because you're right. Vine is the only one that can make the difference. I mean, these guys are so locked together. I mean, this, this race is so close that. So it's for. Separated by 40 seconds. Do you know how many seconds Jonas Vinegar took in two of the first four stages? He took basically half of that lead.

[Johan Berniel]

Well, I mean, if you look, if you look, Spencer, the biggest, the, the biggest time difference between the favorites was on one of the less difficult climbs. You know, Jonas took 30 seconds on Valdes Karai.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah.

[Johan Berniel]

I don't know if that's including bonuses.

[Spencer Martin]

Or not, but that's including bonuses. Okay, but that shows you like these guys are so. It's a phenomenon we're seeing more and more of where these top guys are so closely matched. The only time a difference gets made is when like the mental part is brought in or mistakes. Because if it's steep and it's, if it's the hardest climb in pro cycling, they can just ride on each other's wheel. But if it's an unusual climb where it's like, oh, it's steep at the beginning and then it's not steep, then there's like a little bit of nuance or there's terrain that you can deploy tactics on.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

Versus just pedal real hard. Because if they pedal real hard, they're going to be about the same speed. I can't believe it's this close. I mean, it's 40 seconds and it's trending in Almeida's direction.

[Johan Berniel]

For the moment, you know, the balance goes to mean it's clear that Almeida is, you know, is the guy on better. I mean, I'm not gonna say better form, but you know, the, he has the moment more momentum than Jonas, but, you know, Jonas just needs to hang on and Almeida needs to attack and drop him. It's not easy. It's, you know, that's why I think on Saturday, UAE needs to come up with a plan and needs to use Groschartner first and then Jay vine to really put the hurt on, on Visma and, and see if Jonas cracks. You know, it's probably not going to crack.

[Spencer Martin]

You know, he's not really shown any signs of cracking. That's the problem.

[Johan Berniel]

Like you can't crack them. Jonas has, you know, he, he spoiled us in the past with certain performances that now he can't produce. But he's still always there with the first guys and he has an advantage. So no, it's not that he's bad. His shape is okay. In my opinion, it's good enough to win the Vuelta.

[Spencer Martin]

We should mention Jai Henley's not happy with fourth place. Red Bull will not just go quietly roll in for fourth and fifth. So that does produce a variable on stage 20 where stuff could get really weird really early in that stage and then that could give Almeida a chance. Did you notice Jonas in this post race interview? He didn't know how many days were left in the race?

[Johan Berniel]

I didn't, I didn't know that he.

[Spencer Martin]

Said the wrong number of days.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, sometimes, you know, I, I think some, I mean he, he is, he's sometimes in a bubble. I remember years ago, I mean, I, I think it's three, four years ago. You know, he was, it was in Tirino Adriatico and so, you know, was at the bottom at the top of a climb and I don't know if he had won the stage anyways. He, he got closer to the lead, you know, and so the interviewer said, oh, now you're, you're closer to the blue jersey, you know, which is the leader's jersey. Right. So this is after three, four stages and he said the blue jersey, which one is that? You know. So yeah, if it was to, you know, if it was for real or if it was like, you know, fake to say, hey, I don't care. But it seems to me like he's a guy, he's so focused on his performance and he's just in the Bubble of his team. That. And, you know, I have to say, Spencer, you know, if you're. If you're in a grand tour, you do lose sense of time and space. You know, you basically, you're. You know, you're in hotels, you wake up, you go to the bus, they drive you to the start of stage 15. You don't. You don't look where it is. You don't even know in the. On the map sometimes where you are. Just go from A to B, go back in the bus, back to the hotel. You and I, you know, do that 21 times, and you do lose the sense of reality.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah. Yeah, it's a good point. I mean, it. It's. It's for him, too. There's just one stage left, assuming that a big thing doesn't happen tomorrow. Anything else on today's time trial before we move on?

[Johan Berniel]

No, not really. I mean, yeah, it's just, you know, it's a shame we couldn't. We didn't get to see. I mean, still. Still. Okay. You know, you had. We have a great winner. The. The underdog takes a tiny bit of time on the big favorite, so it keeps the suspense alive, right?

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah.

[Johan Berniel]

So, yeah, after all, I think it. It was a good day.

[Spencer Martin]

It is weird seeing a time trial this short, this late in a grand tour. Like, it's strange. Like, my circadian rhythm is all messed up, and I would like to have seen, man, if. If Jonas was only leading by 30 seconds out of this stage, that'd be a far more interesting GC picture, I think.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

Well, 30, 40.

[Johan Berniel]

What's clear is Almeida needs a really good day, and he needs Jonas to crack, you know, which, for the moment, I haven't seen anything pointing into that direction. Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

I mean, if you imagine. If it's. So it's 40, let's say a wins the final day, then he. There's someone behind him. Then he just needs Jonas to lose 30 seconds, which still seems like a lot. That's how good Giannis is. Like, actually, it's hard to imagine him coming in 30 seconds down on Joao Almeida.

[Johan Berniel]

Spencer, we've seen it in the tour also with Pugacha. You know, Bogachar was sometimes. Especially in the first week, you know, he was sometimes dropping him, and then he came back. You know, the guy just. The guy's tough. You know, once he backs up a little bit, but keeps in a temple and either stays at 10 seconds or 15 seconds or makes it back.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah. Mike, any of my tours confused, but I think the Carapaz third place one. Was that 2021. Where was that third week? He was just, yeah, Carapaz was in third. 2021. So like that third week I don't think he lost any time to Pagachar.

[Johan Berniel]

Just like maybe in the sprints and with the bonuses.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah. And then he might have even put time into him in the time trial. Jonas Finnegaard, good rider. We, we, we're ready to proclaim.

[Johan Berniel]

Very good rider.

[Spencer Martin]

Pretty good at this GC thing. Well, let's take a quick break then we'll predict tomorrow's stage. Okay, Johan, we're back. Stage 19, 162km. Another short stage. I, I, I've been paying attention to this since you've mentioned you've been griping that these, these kids these days don't know about long stages. They're short in distance and they're raced very fast. So a lot of times they're like super fast. Tour Down Under Tour Down Under Length, time at least time based stages, which is an interesting phenomenon. But it is hilly. No categorized climbs though. Sprint Point with bonus seconds in Salamanca, which is a little over halfway through. And then we have a 2.3 kilometer long like drag up to the finish. It's 3% average. We don't have a great bit of detail on this final kilometer, but it looks kind of uphill. I'll list the favorites, then we'll get your prediction on who's going to win. Jasper Phillipson is the heavy favorite at plus 155. Mads Pederson at plus 310. Ben Turner. Plus 550 Ethan Vernon. Plus 800 Urus Ular. Plus 2200 Nico Dens. Plus 2700 Brian Kakar. That would be amazing. Plus 3300 Ary Mar. Plus 3300. It goes on and on. We'll call them out when we need to. And if you want to bet, go to nxt bets.com bet outcomes and it will show you where to bet, where you live and the best signup bonuses and prices. But Johan, who do I assume you think this is? Sprint, not breakaway. But how do you think it's going to play out? And who do you think is going to win?

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, I think it's sprint. Spencer. It's, you know, it's, it is, it is a hard area there. You know, my, my son raced last year. He raced where, where the finish is and, and he also did Tour Salamanca. I mean it's, it's not easy, but I assume they're going to use bigger roads and so 1300 meters of elevation. It's, you know, for any professional, that's basically a flat stage. Right. So I think bunch print for sure. And even if it's a bit uphill, I'm going to pick Jasper Philipson. There's a reason why he stayed in this race. I mean, he could have hung, he could have gone home. So I'm going to pick Jasper Philipson to win at plus 175. Also because he still has the majority of his team here. There's guys who. All these guys stayed in the race for the pure fact that they, they want to assist Philipson in the lead out train. So he's my favorite doing the stage tomorrow.

[Spencer Martin]

Oh, he's plus 155 on FanDuel, 175 on Unibet, where you're looking at it. But I'm gonna go Mads Pedersen plus 310. I know he went all out today before he, he fell apart in the last 4k. He looks so strong though, that. And it's uphill. I believe that Mads can get another win here before the end. So I'm gonna go Pederson at +310.

[Johan Berniel]

Patterson is, I mean, listen, he's impressive, you know, and this is obviously, you know, the difference between the, the big pure sprinters and Mats Pedersen, who is considered not a pure sprinter. I think that's fair to say it's evened out because the fatigue. Right. I was equally surprised to see him go full gas today. I said, well, why? I mean, you're not gonna score points. I mean, first of all, you don't need the points. That's number one, right?

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah.

[Johan Berniel]

And. And now, now we're talking about Pedersen. Spencer, you know that Mats Pedersen this year, except one stage race where he abandoned was early in the season, Etoile de Bessage. I think three quarters of the teams went home because it was dangerous with traffic and stuff. They protested and they went home. So he abandoned there. But every other stage race he did, he won the points jersey.

[Spencer Martin]

Wow.

[Johan Berniel]

It's going to happen again. So pretty impressive, stat.

[Spencer Martin]

That is pretty impressive. He's also so. So he's not just a like stage race specialist because you look, he got seventh at San Remo, third at second at E3, first at Levelgum, fifth at Doors, second at Tour of Flanders, third at Payerview Bay. That's a pretty good run through the spring. Wow. I mean, he's quietly become. He is up there in the top tier with. Yeah, Vanderpoel Ban Art Tada Pagacha in the spring.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, for sure.

[Spencer Martin]

And I guess Jasper Phillipson on some occasions, who decides I'll be a world class classics writer. But I mean, I, I even wondered like, what's little Chuck going to do? You look, there's like an uncategorized climb that tops out about 8k from the finish and you have a descent until 5k to go. Like, I kind of wonder what little Trek is going to do there or if they can do anything in there to try to make it not a routine bunch sprint.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah. The question is, is it hard enough, you know, is it hard enough to, to put Philipson in the. In problems? Let's not forget, you know, I mean, tomorrow, stage 19. Right. You know, the energy levels are low everywhere. From everywhere. You know, you have these guys like these freaks of nature like Pedersen who are just keep, keep going, but the majority of the riders are just dragging themselves and you know, you need a team to put the herd on, on somebody else. And my, my fear is that the, the, the strength is not there anymore to do that as a team.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, that's a good point. Very good point. And if it's not Phillips and do you have a wild card?

[Johan Berniel]

Difficult, but I'm going to pick Ben Turner plus 600 on Unibet one stage already, you know, INEOS is on a roll. I don't know if Ben Turner wants to, you know, have somebody else their head shaved and so, so yeah, Ben Turner is going to be my wild card at plus 600.

[Spencer Martin]

I'm gonna go, I'm just gonna keep going for I'm gonna ten times you. Jake Stewart, who I think could have maybe contested the win the other day when his teammate got into the group with Pedersen and pulled away from him. But Jake Stewart's at +5500. He's beaten Jonathan Milan in a bunch sprint this year. Very fast guy on Israel Premier Tech. I'm gonna go Jake Stewart at +5500 to win.

[Johan Berniel]

Okay, good pick.

[Spencer Martin]

But we'll see, we'll see how it works. I mean, there's a reason, I guess he's plus 5,500, but I think that's pretty good value. Any other thoughts, Johan, before we take off?

[Johan Berniel]

No, not really.

[Spencer Martin]

All right. We will be back tomorrow to break down what I assume is a pretty sleepy stage night team. If you have any errands, go get them done. The protesters seem to not care about stages that don't have GC implications, so I'm sure we'll run smoothly tomorrow and then have all types of problems on Saturday.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah. Okay, Spencer.

[Spencer Martin]

Thanks. Talk to you later. Bye.