THEMOVE Podcast Summary

Episode: Can Vingegaard Hold On With Almeida Closing In? | Vuelta a España Stage 18 Analysis & Stage 19 Preview
Date: September 11, 2025
Hosts: Spencer Martin & Johan Bruyneel

Overview

This episode dives deep into the analysis of Stage 18 of the Vuelta a España, a dramatically shortened time trial, and previews the upcoming Stage 19. Hosts Spencer Martin and Johan Bruyneel dissect the results, strategies from top teams (particularly UAE and INEOS), emerging GC battles, and share their stage predictions. The conversation showcases their insider perspectives—Bruyneel as a veteran DS, and Martin as a sharp tactician—blending technical breakdown with humor and personality.

Stage 18 Analysis – Key Points

Ghana's Dominance in the ITT

• Filippo Ganna wins the shortened 12km time trial (originally 27km), putting in a powerhouse performance:
  • "Ghana went out a little slow, but then Ghana went real fast and then Ghana won." – Spencer Martin [01:48]
  • Average speed: 56 km/h; final 4km at a staggering 62.7 km/h (approx. 39 mph).
• Jai Vine surprises with second place, less than a second behind Ganna, after leading early.
  • "He loses 10 seconds in the last 4km to Filippo Ghana, which shows you how fast Filippo Ghana was going." – Spencer Martin [01:58]
• João Almeida (UAE) takes third and claws back 10 seconds in GC to now sit 40 seconds behind Jonas Vingegaard.

Impact of the Shortened Course

• Short format meant fewer GC shake-ups.
  • "There just was not a lot of distance to put a lot of time into people." – Spencer Martin [00:51]
• Almeida only able to take back 10 seconds; if the stage had run the full 27km, both hosts speculate losses for Vingegaard could have been significantly greater.
  • "Jonas was very honest to say that it would have been worse for him. 27 km, it could have been 30 seconds." – Johan Bruyneel [06:23]

UAE’s Team Tactics Questioned

• Both Bruyneel and Martin perplexed by UAE putting multiple riders (Vine, Ayuso, Oliveira) at full effort in the time trial, potentially risking support for Almeida on the decisive mountain stage.
  • "Just save everything for stage 20, man. It's like it's on stage 20. It's going to be all or nothing." – Johan Bruyneel [05:22]
  • "I can't believe UAE did that... They've been so bad. It's like, do you have no shame?" – Spencer Martin [12:22]

Ineos’ Revival and Head-Shaving Bet

• INEOS scores its third stage win (Turner, Bernal, Ganna) despite lackluster GC campaigns.
  • "They failed in GC, but you know, they had a stage win early on with Ben Turner. Egan Bernal won the stage and now Filippo Ganna." – Johan Bruyneel [06:34]
• Entertaining discussion on the ongoing “head shave” bet within INEOS:
  • “So every time they win a stage, there's somebody who is picked out already on beforehand who has to shave their head.” – Johan Bruyneel [07:20]
  • Next up: Bob Jungels, notorious for having "the best head of hair in the peloton." [07:56]

Changing Team Dynamics in Pro Cycling

• INEOS' resurgence attributed to Dave Brailsford’s management return, but broader context signals they’re no longer the most attractive team for young stars.
  • "Young riders want to go where? To the sexy teams. Right. So they're not. They're not sexy anymore for the moment." – Johan Bruyneel [09:15]
• Transfer rumors: Red Bull’s roster spot and possible burnout of Oier Lazkano discussed.
  • "When the team is asked... team directors say that they have instructions from the team to not talk about it. So there's obviously something deeper going on..." – Johan Bruyneel [10:45]

The Tight GC Battle & Race Psychology

• The Almeida vs. Vingegaard duel: Only 40 seconds separate them after the time trial.
  • "For the moment, the balance goes to—it's clear that Almeida is... has the moment, more momentum than Jonas. But Jonas just needs to hang on and Almeida needs to attack and drop him." – Johan Bruyneel [15:30]
  • UAE’s collective attack discussed: "UAE needs to come up with a plan and needs to use Groschartner first and then Jay Vine to really put the hurt on Visma and see if Jonas cracks." – Johan Bruyneel [15:54]
• Vingegaard’s psychological profile:
  • "He is…sometimes in a bubble. I remember years ago… he said the blue jersey, which one is that?... He's so focused on his performance and he's just in the bubble of his team." – Johan Bruyneel [17:11]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Ganna’s TT:
  "I saw sometimes 64, 65 kilometers per hour. And it's clear that, you know, nobody was close." – Johan Bruyneel [03:13]

• On the tactical puzzle:
  "You need a team collective approach. Vine, in my opinion, on the form he is, is the only one who can do damage...save everything for stage 20." – Johan Bruyneel [13:37]

• On the level of the GC contenders:
  "These top guys are so closely matched. The only time a difference gets made is when…the mental part is brought in or mistakes." – Spencer Martin [15:01]

• On Vingegaard:
  "It's not that he's bad. His shape is okay. In my opinion, it's good enough to win the Vuelta." – Johan Bruyneel [16:17]

• On the nature of Grand Tours:
  "If you're in a Grand Tour, you do lose sense of time and space…you do lose the sense of reality." – Johan Bruyneel [17:30]

Stage 19 Preview & Predictions

Course Overview

• 162km, short and hilly, with a 2.3km uphill drag to the finish (3% average).
• No categorized climbs, but terrain is described as ‘hard.’

Sprint or Break?

• Both hosts anticipate a sprint finish despite terrain.
  • Johan: "I think bunch sprint for sure. And even if it's a bit uphill, I'm going to pick Jasper Philipson." [22:38]
  • Spencer: "I'm gonna go Mads Pedersen...He looks so strong though, and it's uphill. I believe Mads can get another win here." [23:40]

Wild Card Picks

• Johan: Ben Turner (INEOS) – "INEOS is on a roll...so Ben Turner is going to be my wild card." [26:42]
• Spencer: Jake Stewart (Israel-Premier Tech) – "He's beaten Jonathan Milan in a bunch sprint this year...I'm gonna go Jake Stewart at +5500 to win." [27:06]

Analysis of Sprinter Form

• Noted the fatigue factor:
  "The difference between the, the big pure sprinters and Mads Pedersen, who is considered not a pure sprinter...is evened out because of the fatigue." – Johan Bruyneel [24:24]

Points Jersey Dominance

• Pedersen’s consistency:
  "Every other stage race he did, he won the points jersey...Pretty impressive, stat." – Johan Bruyneel [24:56]

Final Thoughts

• Stage 19 is expected to be a relatively quiet day for GC, with hosts encouraging listeners to take care of errands.
  • "If you have any errands, go get them done. The protesters seem to not care about stages that don't have GC implications, so I'm sure we'll run smoothly tomorrow." – Spencer Martin [27:43]
• All eyes on UAE’s tactics and Almeida’s legs for Stage 20, which could decide the Vuelta.

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Ganna’s TT win analysis – 00:51-04:56
• INEOS and the Head-Shave Bet – 06:34-08:05
• State of INEOS and team transfer talk – 08:34-10:45
• GC battle breakdown (Almeida vs. Vingegaard) – 12:51-16:44
• Stage 19 preview and betting picks – 22:38-27:32

The podcast balances technical cycling analysis with sharp banter and unique insider tales, offering valuable context and predictions for Vuelta a España fans—especially as the GC battle heads into its decisive weekend.