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Could the Ongoing Protests Shape the Overall Standings? | Vuelta a España Week 2 Recap | THEMOVE
00:41:03
Johan Bruyneel and Spencer Martin break down Mads Pedersen's hugely impressive stage win on Sunday, where he powered away from the early breakaway despite being a heavily marked rider, further extending his incredible streak of Grand Tour stage...
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- [00:00]
A
If I have a little, little stat here, Spencer, from Mats Pedersen. His last seven Grand Tours, he did only one Tour, one Grand Tour, he didn't win a stage. So he won one stage in the Tour de France 2022, three stages in the Vuelta of 2022. Then in 2023, he won one stage in the Giro and one stage in the Tour. Last year's Tour de France, he didn't win a stage and he abandoned after a crash. And then this year he won four stages in the Giro already and now one stage in the Vuelta. We don't know if it's going to be more or not. And also, I think it's also safe to say that now the green jersey is safe. There's nobody taking that from him anymore.
- [00:53]
B
Everybody, welcome back to the move. I'm Spencer Martin. I'm here with Johan Berniel. We are holding down the fort at the MOVE HQ while everybody's away. This August, we are breaking down the VA. We'll talk about stage 15 won by Mads Pedersen, as well as the greater implications and what we see happening in the third week of this race in the GC, as well as predicting tomorrow's stage 16, which we think will be pretty critical in the overall. But first, let's hear from our partners for today's show. Before we get into it, the first one is AG1, the daily foundational nutrition supplement that supports whole body health. I drink AG1 every day. I come down in the morning, I have my little canister in the refrigerator, I have my ag1 shaker. I just put a scoop right in the water, shake it up, I drink it, I get on the treadmill, I am good to go. It's that easy. And I give AG1 a try because I was tired and really bad at taking supplements and wanted a single solution that supports my entire body and covers my nutritional bases every day. I needed better gut health, a boost in energy, immune system support, and I am just frankly not that good at eating greens. So AG1 is key for me. And with every daily serving, I'm setting myself for up for success with 75 high quality ingredients that give me daily key nutrients and support energy, focus, strength and clarity. And now AG1 has leveled up even more with their AG1 Next Gen. This upgraded formula has been clinically shown to increase healthy gut bacteria by 10 times. All for the same price of less than $3 per day. Head to drink ag1.com the move to get a free welcome kit including a bottle of vitamin D and five AG1 travel packs a $76 value when you first subscribe. That's drink ag1.com the move our next partner is Ridge Wallet. I do not like. I had a big clunky wallet for a long time. It was driving me nuts. Sitting on planes, sitting down was tough. I was having back problems because of it. But I, I researched what's the best slim wallet and it was Ridge Wallet. It's a unique, slim modern design that holds up to 12 cards plus cash. It's made with premium materials like aluminum, titanium and carbon fiber so your wallet can match your bicycle. It has over 50 colors and styles to choose from and all Ridge products have a lifetime warranty. And right now you're going to want to give Ridge a try. Not only because of the wallet, but because they are doing a legendary sweepstakes. And two lucky winners will get choose between a two hundred thousand dollar Lamborghini Stado, a hundred thousand dollar Hennessy Velociraptor, which is what you drive if you're a pro surfer or a hundred thousand dollars in cash. Frankly, I'd probably take the cash, just invest that, let it grow. But if you see anyone driving around with that Lamborghini Stado, you know that they're a cool person and you want to hang out with them. So I would be tempted to get that. There's no reason not to enter. You can enter completely for free@ridge.com so why not take your shot? And when you buy a Ridge Wallet, you're actually increasing your chances of winning. So if you're ready to upgrade your wallet and maybe your ride for a limited time only, head to ridge.com and use code the move at checkout for 10% off your order and a chance to win Ridge's biggest sweepstakes ever. No purchase necessary to enter, but every dollar you spend gets you more entries. That's ridge.com and use code the move at checkout. And after purchase, if they ask where you heard about them, just say the move because because it helps us out. All right into the show, Johan Mads Pederson win stage 15. Seems routine, right? It's like a 50 rider breakaway gets up the road. On the opening climb that we didn't see because it wasn't televised, but we heard Little Tre attacked. They actually initiated the move. The genius of that is Jasper Phillipson, the faster sprinter stuck in the back because he's in the peloton. They immediately build up a gap. Pederson has four teammates in this move. They have five total riders and Jay Vine J Vine with Louis Vervarka, who is kind of in the top 10 GC. So there's a reason he did it. They go for the KOM sprint and they just keep going. They're. They're like dangling two and a half minutes off the front of this fake peloton slash breakaway group with the real peloton like 10 minutes behind. The GC groups just cruising it comes into the finish, there's a climb, the brakes splits on a climb. Pedersen goes with it, and then it. That's even better because Jake Stewart from Israel Premier Tech, who is in the breakaway, is now stuck back. If you remember, he beat Jonathan Milan in an sprint at the Doan, I believe, earlier this year. So you don't want to sprint against that guy. And Pederson couldn't believe his luck because Marco Frgo, Jake Stewart's teammate, is taking polls in that front group. They come into the finish, it's, it's. It's dicey for Pederson, though, because he's stuck on the front. Nobody wants to work with him. There's groups, there's riders attacking him. He has to respond. But then Freego to the rescue again. He attacks with around 500 meters to go. Pederson gets right in the wheel, goes through the final corner in perfect position. Matt Magnus Sheffield from INEOS crashes, unfortunately, and then Pederson, once he's in that final straight, it was routine. He just powers away from everyone. Orus Ular from Movistar gets second. Another second place from Movistar. He was really the only rider that could even challenge. And even then, he was multiple bike links back. Marco Frgo third, Santa Betrago fourth. Eddie Dunar fifth. But, Johan, what was your takeaway of the day and then. And where do you see this race going after. After this day?
- [06:22]
A
Yeah, I mean, as you said, Spencer, incredible performance. Impressive performance of little track. I've heard they attacked with after 4K. It was a Cat 1 climb from the start. So from kilometer zero straight away, 17 kilometers uphill, not extremely steep, around 5%, but still, I mean, that hurts in the start of a stage. So instead of them trying to have as many possible teammates with Pedersen in the breakaway, they attacked themselves, which I think was really, really, really smart move. So Patterson was there, Tikone was there, Verona. Who else was there? I mean.
- [07:14]
B
Yeah, two of the riders. I don't know. I had it written down somewhere, but I can't find it.
- [07:17]
A
But they were there.
- [07:18]
B
They were strong.
- [07:18]
A
I mean, 50 riders. I mean, that's like, okay, half the peloton. You would, you would want to think, you know, if you're in that group, am I, have I, am I breaking away or if you're in the peloton, do you say I got dropped by the peloton?
- [07:34]
B
Yeah.
- [07:35]
A
The only thing, the only thing to your favor is that all the favorites are with you in the, in the, in the peloton. So you, you basically not dropped. But anyways, I, I think what's really worth highlighting here is how difficult this is for a writer like Mads Pedersen to win from such a situation. Because he's. First of all, he's incredible form. You know, he's, he's an animal, this guy. This is his 60th win as a professional cyclist, by the way. But the way he won was, was impressive. First, you know, once you're in that group, then it's basically okay. His team had to do a lot of work because vine and Vacca were ahead and they had at some point, I think they had close to three minutes on, on the break on the group. And we all know that vine is a motor, you know, never stops. Virvaka did an amazing job also, but anyways, they catch them. And for Pedersen, I think the tricky part was to be in the breakaway, from the breakaway, the little group that goes away. And it happened that when there was a climb of 4km with about 20, 30km to go, there was a tax. And of course all the teammates of Pedersen were gone after all the work they've done. And I think the most impressive thing that I've seen actually from Pedersen in this stage yesterday was that he was the only guy that could go with two Colombian climbers on a climb. It was Eran Bernal and Santiago Bijo who attacked and Pedersen was the only rider who could hang on. It was very difficult, but he was there. And then a few other riders bridged up and then finally they caught the two, the two riders from the breakaway. So that was a tricky part for Pedersen. And then of course in the final controlling the attacks from that breakaway. But you could say that, but for everybody else, it was super hard to make that seven man breakaway. You could see that they were all on the limit, you know, there's not that much left and, and Pedersen was smart enough to keep the speed high every, every time. I mean, easier said than done, of course, but you know, the commentators were saying, I wired another attacking, but you know, they were going 47, 48 kilometers per hour. Yeah, it's not that easy to attack at that speed. You Know. Anyways. Impressive, Impressive. I have a little, A little stat here, Spencer, from Mats Pedersen. His last seven Grand Tours he did only one Grand Tour. He didn't win a stage. So he won one stage in the Tour de France, 2022, three stages in the Vuelta of 2022. Then in 2023 he won one stage in the Giro and one stage in the Tour. Last year's Tour de France he didn't win a stage and he abandoned after a crash. And then this year he won four stages in the Giro already and now one stage in the Vuelta. We don't know if it's going to be more or not. And also, I think it's also safe to say that now the green jersey is safe. There's nobody taking that from him anymore. What a rider, man. I mean, it's incredible. You know, this is a guy that this winter gets the news. I don't know if it's immutable agreement or not, but that you're not, you're not doing the Tour. We're putting everything on Jonathan Milan, right? And he goes to the Giro, wins four stages and takes the points classification and then goes to the Vuelta, wins the stage and takes the points classification. Now while I'm saying this little track is going to win the points classification in all three round Tours this year with Pen.
- [11:37]
B
Yeah, I didn't thought about that.
- [11:39]
A
That's pretty impressive. I mean they've come a long way this team. It's. It's one of the three super teams, I would say.
- [11:46]
B
Yeah. The only thing missing is a GC rider, which I guess they're trying to fix with the signing of the rumors signing of Juana you so. But that is really impressive. I mean with this win. So since 2020 or. Sorry, since 2022, that's when Pedersen won his first Grand Tour stage. He has 11 wins. And like in that time, only Jasper Phillips and Tada Pagacha have more stage wins than him in Grand Tours. That's really impressive. But the thing like even outside of those numbers, like I don't know if people realize how hard what he. How hard he. What he did is on Sunday to be the marked man in that move, to have Jay vine and Louis Varca off the front, you have to pull them in, respond to these climbers and then you're kind of dangling on the front and everyone knows that you have to close them down, that you see a lot of really good riders not win in that position. Like how many times did Peter Sagan gets get skunked from that position also.
- [12:48]
A
I mean, there was. There was the potential. Of course, there's two dangers. There's the. The danger that somebody slips away, and, you know, Vine. Vine tried, Frigo tried, Vervaca tried. I don't know who else tried, but. And then there's also the danger that, you know, after all these efforts, there's Luis or Lard, who's not slow. I mean, he's a pretty good sprinter. You know, until you start the sprint, you don't really know, but he was. I mean, he was so dominant, it felt like the whole stage. Him with his team, they had. They were always completely in control of the situation. At no moment was there any situation that you said, okay, they're not going to win this.
- [13:30]
B
Yeah, yeah. I. Because I was thinking. I was like, man, is it. Is it a slam dunk that he wins this sprint? And it's like, oh, man. It also helps to be the strongest rider in the race, which is what he appears to be. He is absolutely flying out there. I mean, and you forget, the crazy thing is he's. He's like a classics writer, moonlighting in these Grand Tours and then winning. I mean, it's. It's theoretical, but he probably wins the points jersey at the Tour if he goes. But if he does that, he's not at the Vuelta. But he's won the zero in the Vuelta. The team wins the Tour. Hard to imagine him not winning that. I mean, do you think he'll be at the Tour next year, Johan? Has he proven to the team he's good enough to take?
- [14:12]
A
I. I guess it's going to depend on if they get a useful. I mean, it changes the who dynamic, you know? I mean, but I think if. I would say if Ayusu goes to a little track, it's going to be Pedersen over Milan that they're taking to the Tour.
- [14:32]
B
Yeah. He wouldn't take both of them. Pull an Alpecin?
- [14:36]
A
No. Well, I mean, why not? I mean, listen, if I used to go to the Tour, if he goes to the track, first of all, it's not sure he goes to the Tour, and if he goes to the Tour, he's not the favorite anyway. So, you know.
- [14:50]
B
Yeah.
- [14:50]
A
Have to have.
- [14:51]
B
Like, when are you ever gonna have to. You should. No one should be thinking, we gotta take control of this race from UAE and Visma. Like, let them do the work. Um, other thing we should talk about in this stage, Jayvine off the front, looking good, looking. Looking strong. But is that really the best way to be. Use it we, we, we debated on Saturday if the, if UA is using too much energy and breakaways and they said watch this and they come back on Sunday and I mean, it was impressive. He got the K1 points, but then is pushing on for a long time and I mean, what were the odds that they were ever like. There was a bunch of little trek riders back there chasing like.
- [15:31]
A
And it was a strong headwind too.
- [15:33]
B
Yeah, it feels like still, I mean, it's.
- [15:36]
A
Yeah, it's, it's a lot of work. It's a lot of work. Obviously. Listen, there's no denying that Jay vine is in incredible form. That's number one. Number two, today was a rest day, but everybody gets a rest day, right? So. Yeah.
- [15:56]
B
Didn't we spend a lot of time during this year? I would say. I feel like you were in like a high profile debate with someone about this. That one, like a piece of energy, a kilojoule of energy expended in the first week hurts you in the third week.
- [16:11]
A
It does.
- [16:12]
B
And these guys have expended a lot of kilojoules chasing breakaways.
- [16:16]
A
Yeah, yeah, yeah. You know, it's also, I mean, it's the Vuelta. It's different. You know, if you look at the peloton, Spencer, you know, I mean, with all the respect for the Vuelta, but there are 20 riders in this race who want to do good in GC, you know, some of them for top 10, some of them for top 20, maybe, I don't know. And everybody else is just hanging on at this stage in the season. So it's not the same. But I mean, we'll see, we'll see, we'll see. Yeah, we can, we can criticize their tactics and we'll see if one day we're going to say, hey, you see, he was not there when he had to be there. And I'll make that. I think the, the key is, and I think this is the where everything, you know, all the, all the debates have their origin is that. Is Almeida strong enough to beat Jonas Wingergaard?
- [17:18]
B
You're within a minute of him on the second rest day, though. Yeah, you gotta believe.
- [17:23]
A
Yeah, I mean, listen, it was definitely, definitely a lot better than we expected before. A lot tighter than we expected before this Vuelta. But has Jonas been in trouble already? You know, one time with Pitcock on that steep climb, but that didn't really matter for the final outcome of the stage and of the gc.
- [17:45]
B
Yeah, he is like, he's one flat tire away from being in serious trouble.
- [17:51]
A
That's true.
- [17:52]
B
Yeah, I mean, if you're within once. Yeah.
- [17:54]
A
If you think mechanical problems, it can happen, you know, I mean, anything. I mean, we've seen, and unfortunately, we have seen this incident with the protesters or one protester who was hiding and then jumped on the. On the road at the last moment and provoked the crash of Javi Romo and another guy. I don't remember who the other guy was, but I don't remember it could happen to anybody.
- [18:22]
B
This was the scariest one, by the way, we've seen, because the other ones have been people protesting, like, almost having a purpose out there. And it's like, oh, I'm in a peloton, not maybe understanding what's happening. This guy seemed to be hiding in the woods and then was running into the peloton. He slips at the last second, but if he doesn't slip and luckily he crashes.
- [18:42]
A
Luckily he slips and, you know, but anyways, it can happen. So we'll see. I think for the moment, you know, we see Jonas is solid. I mean, solidly in red. I mean, there's only. There's one guy he really needs to follow. And I think then, you know, we have to think he almighty. That's closer than we expected and Visma and Jonas expected. And then I think we'll have a really nice battle for the podium, you know, between Pitcock and Jay Hindley.
- [19:16]
B
Yeah. Yeah. That is a really tight one. But to me, this was the. This was the most egregious of the breakaways, because with Solaire on Saturday, we were debating that, but it's like, well, at the end of the day, select could have dropped back to hell. You know, he. He's up there and it's like he's serving a purpose at. At some point in the GC if he's needed. This served no purpose whatsoever. And on a mountain stage, I can understand Jay vine investing a ton of energy. I can understand Juan Uzo investing a ton of energy. This, like, what were the. They looked good, like they were flying out there, but at no point did I. Did I really feel like they were threatening to win the stage. Like.
- [19:56]
A
Yeah.
- [19:57]
B
Doing this for like a 10 chance of success or less than that.
- [20:01]
A
Especially if you've won seven stages already. Yeah. You know, on the contrary, if you look at Visma, for example, you know, you could say. You could say in the, you know, in their favor or in their defense, you could say, well, you know, 50 guys, it's almost logical. You have somebody. Somebody in there. Right. Visma didn't have anybody in There, you know, if you're in there, you can draw back, you know.
- [20:25]
B
Yeah. I don't know if you need to be up there. If you're Visa. I mean, what. What do you even accomplish?
- [20:32]
A
I mean, they. They are really riding around their leader and everything for gc. That's what they're in for here. And UAE is. Is. Has a different strategy still. You know, I think if you look at the odds of winning for UAE to winning this, this welta, they're slim. I think they're not. They're not. They're not in existence, but they're slim because I. I mean.
- [21:03]
B
I mean, this isn't Roman B five minutes behind Chris Froome. This is. It is pretty close and.
- [21:10]
A
And the time trial, you know, the time trial. We'll see that what happens there. But anyway, Jonas is a good time trial is still. I don't think Almeida has ever taken a lot of time, if any, on Jonas. No. A little bit. A little bit at the Tour, I think.
- [21:27]
B
But you're one bad Jonas day. You're one bad Jonas time trial away from winning this race. I just don't. At some point you do have to buckle down because what are you doing this for? An eighth stage win? A third. Wouldn't that be J Vine's third stage win of the race?
- [21:44]
A
86. 86 wins in the season. Gotta get. They are up at 81, by the way, after Isak del Toro won the. The race in Italy yesterday.
- [21:55]
B
Pencil him in for 82 with Montreal coming up.
- [21:58]
A
10 stage. 10 10th win of the season for Isab del Toro. So 10 races he won. What a rider.
- [22:05]
B
Yeah, it's. Yeah. Incredible. I. I just. This was, I thought one of the weirdest decisions they've made because now they have a tough third week coming up where they're going to have to try to crack Visma. Yeah. The odds might not be great, but the haze in the barn. Johan, I don't know if they need more stagements. That's where like. But do you know what. What team missed this group that was not Visma that needed to be in this group. Confidence.
- [22:33]
A
Oh, well, it's not looking good. I've checked. I've checked the rankings yesterday because I saw that there's some, you know, ex riders who scored points in Italy and.
- [22:43]
B
They'Re now already like, like 300 points ahead and.
- [22:48]
A
Yeah, yeah, it's. It's not gonna happen for. Go for this.
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B
How does that happen that the whole team misses the a 50 rider move? That's not great.
- [23:00]
A
Yeah. That's crazy. Yeah.
- [23:02]
B
Yeah. Especially when it's like. It's actually hugely important that they be in the move.
- [23:07]
A
Well, I mean, then the question is, okay, even if you're in there, how many points are you gonna score? You know, I think their team is dead. You know, they have nobody. They have nobody who can. In the last week. It's not going to happen anymore.
- [23:22]
B
I mean, yeah, I guess you had to make that front split.
- [23:25]
A
You know, we haven't seen any coffee. This rider who has impressed us, like, say, okay, he's been in two or three breaks, and this guy has come to our attention and might have a stage win in the legs. There's. There's none.
- [23:38]
B
It's kind of weird because they have, like. Remember, like, Jesus Harada? He was always a guy that would do that. Like Emmanuel Bookman.
- [23:45]
A
Yeah.
- [23:45]
B
A guy was fourth at the Tour de France in 2019. And, like, with the level now where they're not in a breakaway, that. That is that big is. Is. Is not great. But anything else on this stage before we move on to prediction time, stage 16 and beyond? No, I think.
- [24:03]
A
I think we've covered the stage and, you know, what's. What's ahead of us. Obviously, we still have a few hard stages. There is speculation, Spencer, I don't know if you saw that news, that because of the potential threat of protests in Madrid, that they actually are considering not holding the last stage in Madrid. And actually the Vuelta would finish on Saturday afternoon after stage 20. That's a possibility. So it might be that the Volta finishes one day earlier.
- [24:39]
B
I would love this, actually. I mean, sometimes these. These final days, it's cool, actually. I think it was last year, two years ago, they had an amazing sprint. And sometimes it's interesting, but sometimes, like, what are we doing? Why are we doing in it? You don't finish a soccer game and then it's like, all right, everyone run out there around for 90 more minutes.
- [24:59]
A
Just the.
- [24:59]
B
The race is done, and then we're done.
- [25:01]
A
So, you know, the Tour finishes in Paris. You know, the Vuelta finishes in Madrid. Usually it's a ceremony, you know, huge, big podium. It's not fun for the people in Madrid, man, let me tell you, two years in a row, I had actually appointments for dinner on Sunday evening in Madrid. It's impossible. Everything is blocked off, and it's. It's pretty crazy.
- [25:32]
B
I can't imagine. Yeah, like, I. I'm. It's. It is scary, actually. I shouldn't be flipping about it.
- [25:38]
A
The.
- [25:38]
B
The fact that they're Even thinking about canceling it already tells you that they're very concerned, and it makes me concerned about races or stages that aren't the last day.
- [25:47]
A
And also, I don't know if you saw yesterday's stage in the last corner.
- [25:50]
B
There was.
- [25:51]
A
There was a big manifestation there. And the. Yeah, there's. There was extra police, and they put an extra fence, actually, also for. To. To prevent people from jumping over the fence in the last corner. And. And there's extra police now that. That has been brought to the race to scout potential hazards on the course.
- [26:16]
B
I mean, it looked tense in that corner. It was. Yeah, it was not a.
- [26:21]
A
It.
- [26:21]
B
It actually made me kind of sad for the riders. Can you imagine, like, you're coming in and instead of hearing, like, cheering, it's just.
- [26:27]
A
It would.
- [26:28]
B
I think it would make it very unpleasant. The race in general, like, the final shoot is just people criticizing you, not, like a fun race experience with crowds. Yeah, for sure. For sure. But before we predict yo on, let's take a moment to talk about our partners today. The first one, it's a rest day at the V at the va and riders are probably in bed or they should be resting up. And our first partner is Helix Sleep. I hope they're on Helix mattresses, because those things are incredible. They will help your sleep. I was without my Helix mattress all summer. I was up in Aspen for the tour, and then I went back to see my family in Europe, and I was missing the Helix. I was tossing and turning, not sleeping well. I was getting in trouble by this. By the. By the wife. Well, you're.
- [27:13]
A
You're.
- [27:14]
B
You're turning too much. You're snoring too loud. I was not myself. And I got home, and right away my Garmin said my sleep score was through the roof because I was back on my Helix mattress. And if you want one, all you have to do is go to helixsleep.com you take their sleep quiz, you answer a few questions, and it tells you exactly which mattress you should get. And right now, they're having a Labor Day sale still going on. 27% off all orders on the site. All you have to do is go to helixsleep.com themove. Make sure to enter our show name after checkout so they know we sent you. That's helix sleep.com the move. Our next partner, Ketone IQ, used by VIS Melissa bike in this peloton, and they're probably using it today to help with their recovery. It also boosts athletic performance. They've been using it throughout the race it's working clearly because they're in, they're. They have such a commanding GC lead that Johan thinks they should have all the teams should give up because they cannot beat visma Lisa bike in this race. And in a placebo controlled study with trained athletes. Ketone IQ boosted boosted average sprint power by 19. Peak power by 13%. Cut fatigue by 10%. Spiked blood ketones five times in just 20 minutes. It off offers faster recovery. They have two products that we really liked. The Ketone IQ classic shot high performance energy with 10 grams of ketones. Clean shot of energy with no sugar or caffeine. But if you need a little bit more, they have the ketone IQ plus caffeine. Five grams of ketones with a hundred milligrams of caffeine from green tea. We were using both of these during the tour in the studio and our producer Gabriel reported when he was using it was not getting that afternoon bonk which can come for you when you're doing office work in the afternoon. So take your shot. Get 20% off your order@ketone.com themove and use code themove at checkout. Our final sponsor, last but not least is Element lmnt Folks, you hear us talk about it all the time, but some of us at WEDO are sweaters and we need to be, we need our electrolytes replenished and that is what Element is for. Even without this partnership. I will just say it's my favorite electrolyte. I use it all the time when I don't have it. I get cranky. When I, when I'm in markets where they don't have it, I bring my own because I like it so much. They have a thousand milligrams of sodium, 200 milligrams of potassium, 60 milligrams of magnesium. No sugar, no gluten, no artificial ingredients, no bs. The real deal. And you can get a free eight count sample pack of elements most popular drink. Mix flavors with any purchase@drinklmnt.com themove that's drinklmnt.com the move like the letters lmnt.com not not some foreign word. Drink element.com the move find your favorite flavor or share it with a friend. And if you don't like it, you just have to ask for a refund. You don't even have to send it back. You can just give it away. And be sure to try the Element service. Sparkling. A bold 16oz can of sparkling electro electrolyte water. I cannot recommend that enough. It's incredible, does not have a lot of calories or any sugar and it tastes incredible and picks you up when you're feeling like you need a boost of electrolytes. But Johan, stage 16 tomorrow, coming out of the.
- [30:29]
A
Before that. Spencer, I just, I just read, I'm just reading some information here. So about the, the last time trial. So apparently it's the same time draw that in 2023 in Valladolid. Jonas who was doing a good Vuelta back then, only finished 10th in that time job 1 minute and 17 seconds down on Filippo Ghana. And let's see, he lost one minute on Remco and was also in the race and you know, Joe Almeida was fourth and he was 30 seconds faster than Jonas. So it's, it's, I mean it was a bit longer. I think it's, it was actually.
- [31:27]
B
Is it shorter? 25 in 2023 it was 25.8. And this one is here, it says 27.2. That's this year's though. So it's 2k longer this year.
- [31:39]
A
Okay, okay. So, so yeah. And in, in the meantime in, in the head to heads confrontations in the time trials between Jonas and Jawal Maida, it's four to three advantage Omega. So I made that one four times against three times for Jonas.
- [32:05]
B
I mean Yona, that is super interesting and shows you they should not give up just yet. Keep hope alive. But also that's wild because if let's say that happens, Jonas wins the vault on time bonuses and then we go back to like stage two, stage three we're like maybe sprinting for those time bonuses was smart. They know a lot about bike racing.
- [32:24]
A
But no, let's first they still need, they have tomorrow stage which is difficult. I don't expect any big changes in gc. But then they have alto more which is hard. And of course after the time trial there's still the Bola del Mundo which is one of the, I mean after the Angliru I think this is the hardest climb of the whole world.
- [32:47]
B
But who's the hardest stage of this race so far?
- [32:50]
A
So what was that?
- [32:52]
B
Who's won the hardest stage of this race?
- [32:54]
A
But he didn't take time, just bonuses.
- [32:57]
B
I don't know if I don't think they're, I don't think either of them are taking time on the road the rest of the time. I think this comes down to bonuses in the tt. But Jonas does a lot of Tour guys, Tour GC guys have this like. Yeah, they leave the Tour and their time trialing legs just go. You know, they're not at that. They just have like a certain level at the Tour. And then you leave the Tour, like, because Jonas a lot of times in The Vuelta, like 20, 23, like, remember he was coming on late. He kind of has. It makes sense because he's doing a three Grand Tour, right, the VT Espana, and he's much more stressed and not preparing specifically for it like everybody else, but something to keep in mind specifically on tomorrow. Stage 16, it is 168km. It is a really hard, tricky stage. It has 1, 2, 3, 4 categorized climbs, finishes on a summit 8.3km long, 5% average. But that's deceptive because the first 3K are very steep, 8 to 10%. It flattens off similar to what we saw in stage nine. Actually will be interesting to see if anyone tries to use it as a launch pad like they did on stage nine. We had the same final two climbs. The. The second to last climbs are really hard. 3K long at 9%. We had the same final two climbs. And at this stage, 20 of the 20, 21 Vuelta Espana, that's where Migo Ango Lopez just got off the bike and went home. And when he was, I think he was sitting in third place going into the stage. Pretty wild. Not seen anything quite like that in a long time. And then I remember Primo's Ragoch winning the stage. He did not. Clem, his shop was on, I believe, went clear from the GC group and won that stage. I'll list off the odds and then you tell me how you think this is going to play out. I. I find this one to be a very difficult one to predict. This is on FanDuel in the US Juana, you so is the favorite at + 600 Jonas Vinegar. Plus 650J Vine. Plus 700 Mark Solaire. Plus 1000 Tom Pitcock plus 1000 Santiago Batrago. Plus 1800 Chalameda. Plus 2000 Eddie Dunbar. Plus 2200 Javier Romo plus 2700. It goes on and on. We'll call them out if we need to. And if these numbers are just nonsense to you, you can go to nxd bets.combet outcomes and they will show you where to bet and how to bet and the best signup bonuses at at each book where you live, which is very hard to navigate without them. So make sure you check out that link in the show notes. Johan, do you think breakaway or GC day? And who do you think wins?
- [35:22]
A
I think breakaway day. Spencer. I can't imagine Visma controlling it for the. For the stage win of Jonas because that's not guaranteed. And I can't imagine UAE controlling it for Almeida because I think there's very, very little chance that Almeida drops you on us tomorrow on the last climb, especially because the last part, the last part, the last 5k are easier. So it's a perfect climb to be on the wheel. And the way we've seen the differences between them, tomorrow is not the day. So I think breakaway. I think breakaway. Logically, you would say, well, breakaway on a difficult stage. Who from UAE are we going to pick? I'm not going to pick any UAE guy, actually. I'm going to pick Eddie Dunbar tomorrow. He's +2000. He's showing that he's getting into better form. He was there yesterday and he's, you know, he's shown a few times that, that he's getting his good legs. So I think this is a rider that should be in the break normally and has a chance to win.
- [36:35]
B
On your prediction on how the stage is going to play out, I fully agree. It's just, it's too much of a black box on terms of the stage winner. So Visma won't control it. Little. Not little. Little Truck controls it for Trcone. Red Bull won't control it because even if, like, oh, Jai Hindley wants to drop Tom Pitcock, well, Tom Pick could win this because it's mild enough for the top. So you're not going to control. Maybe they.
- [36:57]
A
Maybe, maybe Q 36.5 control, maybe.
- [37:00]
B
But then does Pitcock get dropped on the second to last climb? You know, it could, like, blow up in your face.
- [37:05]
A
Too far away. It's too. It's too far away.
- [37:08]
B
It's too short.
- [37:08]
A
It's 3.8K. Yeah, he's fine. You're gonna be fine. Yeah. That's actually the only team that I could see controlling it for a potential stage win, not excluding that. But I'm still gonna go breakaway.
- [37:21]
B
That, yeah, that would be a big. A big bite of the apple, so to say. But I would be impressed if they did it. I don't think it happens. I'm gonna go with the most. Everything you said is very logical and it could happen. Eddie Dunbar is a great pick. I'm going to go with Juan Uso at +600 because I'm. I'm still baffled by Sunday and I think these guys are just going to keep going for stage wins. So I'm going I uso. Why, why go away from a winning Formula, even when it makes no sense.
- [37:50]
A
Yeah, well, we've seen that. Of course we've seen that. Juana, you saw, is able to put more energy and motivation into a. A breakaway with potential win for himself than working for the team. If he gets the freedom, then why not? But it's also going to be more and more difficult for Ayusha to win from a break. You know, the first stage he won was impressive, the way he rode away. The second time was against Javier Romo. He was already not stronger anymore, in my opinion, than Javier Romo on that climb. So we'll see. We'll see where his form goes.
- [38:30]
B
I will say, I think UA's dominance has kind of driven. It's like other teams don't have the luxury of actually making the smart move. They're, like, driving people insane. Like, you see, like, with Marco, Frigo or Movistar, it's like they can't. Pickers can't be choosers, and they're, like, making these, I would say, poor decisions. Like Frigo working in the group with Pederson when he has Jake Stewart behind. I think you could see you're just going to start to see funky stuff because teams are so desperate for stage ones because there's so few of them to go around. If. If it's not Eddie Dunbar, do you have a wild card?
- [39:04]
A
Pick another breakaway guy. I'm going to pick Santi. Santiago Petrago. Yeah, he was.
- [39:11]
B
Yeah, he's on there.
- [39:12]
A
On. On. Bahrain looks to be getting good legs in the last week, and tomorrow is a good stage for him. He's my wild card.
- [39:26]
B
Yeah. And back on what on Sunday, Eddie Dunbar was fifth and Sancho Bertraga was fourth. So we know they're strong, we know they're fit. I'm gonna go wild card. Jay Vine, Just the axis of chaos here, plus 700. It makes no sense that they would be up there. It makes no sense.
- [39:46]
A
You don't like their tactics, but you're choosing them to win this stage.
- [39:49]
B
They're proven to be quite successful.
- [39:51]
A
It makes sense.
- [39:52]
B
Yeah. And I mean, I just frankly would be shocked. I think, like. Like Patrick Bro on the Lantern Rouge podcast was like, they can't keep doing this. They can't keep doing this. And they just keep doing it. And I'm like, as in disbelief as him, but I'm just gonna roll with it at this point. I'm not gonna fight it. I'm gonna pick them.
- [40:10]
A
Okay, let's see what happens.
- [40:13]
B
And I. Any. I. I don't think GC action or GC separation.
- [40:18]
A
What do you think?
- [40:18]
B
I don't think so. I don't think so. Maybe.
- [40:21]
A
I think. I think it's lower down. It's Moreo. Alto. Moreo Time trial Mundo. Those are the three stages left where.
- [40:29]
B
Something.
- [40:32]
A
Will happen, probably or should happen for gc, but not tomorrow.
- [40:35]
B
In the day after tomorrow. Very Moradero, as you said. Very difficult summit finish. So I think people have an eye on that as well. Thanks so much, Johan, and we will talk tomorrow. All right, bye.