THEMOVE Podcast: "Has UAE’s Stage Win Obsession Gone Too Far?"

Host: Lance Armstrong
Co-hosts: Spencer Martin, Johan Bruyneel
Episode Focus: Vuelta a España Stage 14 Analysis & Stage 15 Preview
Date: September 6, 2025

Overview

In this episode, Lance Armstrong’s THEMOVE team — primarily Spencer Martin and Johan Bruyneel — break down UAE Team Emirates’ seventh stage win at the 2025 Vuelta a España. The discussion centers on whether UAE’s focus on racking up stage wins could undermine their overall GC ambitions, features a detailed analysis of Stage 14’s key moments, and previews the tactical complexity of Stage 15. The conversation offers unique insider perspectives, tactical speculation, commentary on team dynamics, and lively predictions.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Stage 14 Overview — Tactical Success or Overextension?

• Marc Soler’s win marks UAE’s seventh out of fourteen possible stage victories, raising the question: are they losing GC focus in pursuit of stage glory?
• The stage dynamics:
  • Shortish (135km), with a contested breakaway.
  • Victor Campenaerts (Visma) attacks; Marc Soler and Mikkel Bjerg (UAE) follow to monitor moves.
  • Campenaerts dropped due to a mechanical; UAE then rides aggressively on climbs.
  • Key moment: UAE is simultaneously setting pace for GC leader Almeida while Soler chases his own stage win — UAE riders pushing both fronts.
  • Jai Hindley attacks, but Vingegaard and Almeida prove strongest, though Vingegaard snatches the sprint for second and crucial time bonuses.

Quote:
"Stage 14 of the Vuelta Espana won by Marc Soler from UAE, the team's seventh stage win of this race. Unbelievable…about half a minute behind in the GC group on the summit finish."
— Spencer Martin [00:21]

2. Is UAE’s ‘Stage Win Obsession’ a Problem?

• Debate: Is UAE wasting valuable resources and team energy, potentially jeopardizing Almeida’s overall chances?

• Spencer questions Soler’s repeated aggressive efforts:
  “Stage 7, he attacks off the front…Stage 9, he is not helping Almeida…Stage 11, he’s off the front. Stage 13, he’s not really there to help because he’s tired from being off the front. Stage 14, he’s off the front…It just feels a little unfocused.”
  — Spencer Martin [05:41]

• Johan’s perspective:

  • Soler’s moves weren’t planned; UAE adapted tactics on the road.
  • Internal harmony and team morale seem extremely high.
  • Soler’s value is his strength when given freedom, and he’s trusted by teammates.

  “Things that they don’t even try seem to work for them…It seems like everything seems to work for UAE…they looked solid.”
  — Johan Bruyneel [03:26]

3. Marc Soler — Maverick Domestique or Justifiable Gambler?

• Soler is described as “super diesel,” capable of breakaway after breakaway with remarkable recovery, despite his sometimes “strange” racing logic.

• Noted improvement in his professionalism and willingness to follow team orders since joining UAE (compared to Movistar years).

• His break involvement today was partly reactionary — covering dangerous moves — not by design.

  “He goes in a break, and he goes in another break, and he gets second in a stage and third in a stage and then...the day after he’s again in the break and wins.”
  — Johan Bruyneel [13:53]

  “I was covering the big moves, followed Campenaerts when he attacked...I waited for instructions from behind...in the end I had the green light to push on.”
  — Quoting Marc Soler’s post-stage remarks [12:28]

4. Team Dynamics: UAE vs. Visma — Who’s Stronger in the Mountains?

• UAE looks as strong — or stronger — than Visma now, particularly in mountainous stages.

• Visma’s Tour de France contingent (Vingegaard, Jorgenson, Kuss, etc.) may be showing cumulative fatigue.

• UAE’s collective strength: Jay Vine, Felix Großschartner, and strong domestiques highlighted.

  “UAE is definitely up there at the same strength, sometimes even a bit stronger in the mountains than collectively, I would say…Felix Großschartner, yesterday and today, extraordinary performance.”
  — Johan Bruyneel [17:06]

5. Tactics, Wind, and the Limits of GC Gaps

• Discussion of how today’s headwind limited attacks and made GC time gains tough.

• Allusions to past Grand Tours where teams misread the real danger of ‘invisible’ fatigue.

• Both hosts agree: Almeida and Vingegaard look extremely closely matched, and big changes await only in decisive stages or the final time trial.

  “What we’re seeing over and over again is you actually get to these stages and these two guys are locked together…I don’t know if they’ll be able to put any time into each other for the rest of the race until we get to the time trial.”
  — Spencer Martin [21:49]

6. Previewing Stage 15: Tactics & Betting Odds

• Stage 15 Profile: 168 km, transitional, with a long but not steep climb before a sprinty finale or breakaway chance.

• Favorites discussed: Mads Pedersen, Jasper Philipsen, Victor Campenaerts, Nico Denz.

• Hosts’ picks:

  • Johan: Mads Pedersen (can win from breakaway or bunch sprint), plus Victor Campenaerts as wildcard.
  • Spencer: Mads Pedersen (for form and versatility), plus Nico Denz as his ‘hedge’ for a late escape.

  “From now on, to win from a breakaway is not easy. But because [Pedersen] can win from both scenarios…I'm going to pick him to win the stage.”
  — Johan Bruyneel [33:44]

7. General Classification (GC) Predictions

• Vingegaard is the logical favorite to win overall; Almeida is still close, but making up 50 seconds appears unlikely unless he drops Jonas on a major climb.
• The time trial may be more decisive, but both considered even in that discipline, perhaps with a minor edge to Vingegaard if he’s in Tour-winning form.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Soler’s Chaos:
  “Are the other teams gonna get mad at them at a certain point? Like, what the heck, guys?” — Spencer Martin [16:40] “I don’t think they’ve stolen any of those seven wins. They raced for them, they fought for them.” — Johan Bruyneel [16:56]

• Fatigue Watch:
  “If I just had to sum [Visma] up in one word it would be fatigue…you do get the feeling…is [Vingegaard] hanging on?” — Spencer Martin [19:33]

• On Grand Tour Consistency:
  “He has never done a Grand Tour where he was not first or second. That’s pretty impressive.” — Johan Bruyneel on Vingegaard [27:18] “There’s only one other rider in the sport with that type of Grand Tour consistency and it’s Tadej Pogacar.” — Spencer Martin [27:32]

• Fan Culture Side Discussion:
  Lively comparison of crowd behavior in Spain vs. Italy and France.
  “Imagine as a child seeing your father running up that mountain…” — Johan Bruyneel [31:17]

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Stage 14 Breakdown — [00:00–03:25]
• UAE’s Tactics and Stage Win Strategy — [03:26–09:53]
• Marc Soler’s Race Style, Quotes, and Team Fit — [09:54–14:47]
• Team Strength: UAE vs. Visma — [17:06–19:33]
• GC Tactics & Time Gap Analysis — [21:37–23:40]
• Stage 15 Preview & Bet Picks — [33:36–35:52]
• GC Odds Discussion & Predictions — [36:24–37:35]
• Fan Culture/Incident Anecdotes — [28:10–31:17]

Conclusion

The hosts conclude that while UAE’s seven stage wins are eye-popping and maybe “a little chaotic,” their tactics haven’t obviously compromised their GC ambitions — at least not yet. Soler’s aggressive gambles are accepted as part of his character and, so far, have delivered more benefit than risk for the team. With the GC still close, Stage 15 shaping up as a breakaway or sprinter's day, and the most decisive stages ahead, the Vuelta remains wide open — with UAE’s bold, improvisational style likely to remain a talking point.