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Has UAE’s Stage Win Obsession Gone Too Far? | Vuelta a España Stage 14 Analysis & Stage 15 Preview | THEMOVE+
00:38:40
Johan Bruyneel and Spencer Martin discuss UAE's continued stage win dominance with Marc Soler adding to the team's near-absurd tally from the early breakaway, with João Almeida and Jonas Vingegaard unable to shake eachother closely behind in the GC...
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- [00:00]
A
A lot of the riders that have come out of the Tour de France look pretty beat up. Like Felix Gall, you would say, is not climbing at his best. Jonas Van der Garde is not at his best. So it's possible that Solaire is, like, just getting his legs from the Tour, and that's why he's not always been where he needs to be. For Almeida, everybody, welcome back to the Move. I'm Spencer Martin. I'm here with Johan Bernillo. We are breaking down. Stage 14 of the Valta Espana won by Mark Solaire from UAE, the team's seventh stage win of this race. Unbelievable. Jonas Finnegaard second, Jolomaida third. Jai Henley fourth. Felix Golf fifth. About half a minute behind in the GC group on the summit finish. We'll break this down and then Preview tomorrow's stage 15. Johan, before we get your thoughts, I'll just recap the stage as quickly as I can. It was a shortish stage, 135km. There was a fight for the breakaway. A breakaway eventually goes. The two most notable things were Victor Campenaard's from Visma went up the road and then to keep shenanigans from happening, according to him, Mark Soler followed him, didn't want to be up there, had to do it. He had a teammate and Miko Berg. It. It looked kind of clever because you're thinking, well, there's a hard climb before the final climb. Now both riders have stashed. Both GC riders have stashed teammates. They can help them if they need them. On the final climb, Victor Camparts actually gets a flat, has some issues with the neutral service car. They leave him behind. He's on a neutral bike.
- [01:29]
B
He.
- [01:30]
A
He's out of the breakaway, goes back to the Belton. Solaire stays up there. And then on the. On the penultimate climb, very difficult climb. Juana USO takes the front for UAE and just absolutely shreds the field like. Ernal's dropped. Julia Chone's dropped, slims it down. The time gaps were a little unclear, so we. I wasn't quite sure how they were going to play it with Solaire up the road, but they have a. They have good support at the front. UAE does for Almeida. They get to the final climb. We have the same guys. Jay Vines up there pulling. Felix Squirrel Shotner is interesting. The last person pulling for Almeida. So we have a strange situation where UAE is pulling and then now Mark Solaire after doing the. Oh, Mark Solaire. Ah, guys, I'm not that strong. I'm getting dropped from this breakaway is now off the front by himself. He's actually the strongest of the breakaway. Surprise, but. So you have UAE chasing uae, but it's kind of complicated because it's a headwind, so it's not obvious that Almeida can even attack. It's not even obvious that it's worth it for Solaire to drop back. It looks strange, but it pays off because Solaire stays away for the stage win. At some point, Jai Henley ends up putting Giulio Pelizari on the front, which itself is tricky, tricky because Pelizarri is fighting for his own GC position. But his pace really starts shrinking that gap to Solaire. Solaire does stay away, wins a stage. Jai Hindley launches an attack inside the last kilometer, slightly distances Tom Pickock by about 10 seconds and. But he loses time because as we saw yesterday, Almeida and Vinegar are the strongest. Vinegar comes around Almeida at the finish, which makes it look smart that they had Solare through it because he took the 10 second time bonus for the win. Vinegard only gets six, Almeida gets four. So he loses two seconds. But they come in together. Johan, another UAE win. This is getting out of hand, but what's your takeaway from the day?
- [03:26]
B
Yeah, I mean, as you said it, Spencer, takeaway of the day is 7 stage win of UAE out of 14 stage. So 50 of the stages so far in the Vuelta have been won by a UAE rider, which is quite impressive. And to me today, I mean, I think the performance of Marc Soler was. Was quite impressive. It's. This is a guy that when he's in the break and he gets the green light, he is really strong. And today he was super strong. He didn't lose that much time today in the final until Red Bull Bora started to pull. But, yeah, it seems like everything seems to work for UAE, you know, because I am 100% sure that this was not part of the plan today, at least not going with Solaire for the stage win, that it was decided on the go once they saw that he was in the break. And so things that they don't even try seem to work for them. We can say, you know, we can criticize them all day long right at the end of the day. Today they got their 80th win of the season. 8 0, not 1-8-807 stage win. And as a team, I have to say, today I looked, I liked what I saw from uae. They looked solid. You can say, well, you know, why is Mark Saler in the break when you know he's not Been on domestic duty in other stages, but they didn't need him today. I think another thing that I really remarked was that finally Juana Yuso rose up to the level that we expect him to be in terms of a teammate. He did a really good job on that second last climb and that's what we should see from him, you know, more often. So obviously, I think no matter what we have said, Spencer, and no matter what we have speculated, I cannot imagine that the atmosphere in Team UAE is not unbelievable. In the hotel, in the bus and at the dinner table. It must be amazing.
- [05:37]
A
Yeah, yeah. I mean, seven wins, you don't seem convinced.
- [05:40]
B
You don't seem convinced.
- [05:41]
A
We should say seven wins out of 14. But one of those stages didn't have a stage winner, so it's actually more than 50% of the stages that have had a winner. That's impressive. We should say that Mark Solaire, impressive. The reason I'm not impressed is a. It's like. Seems like a little too much energy they're putting into stage wins when they're within a minute of the GC of the GC leader. And it kind of seems like momentum is on their side. But you could also argue maybe these stage ones are helping with momentum. My. My problem with Solaire is. Let's just go back through this really quick. Stage seven, he attacks off the front for reasons unknown in the chase group to take time. So like using energy not in a great way. Stage nine, he is. He is not where he's not helping Almeida. When Vinderard puts like his biggest chunk into Almeida in the GC and then he's chasing like leading the GC group home behind. So he's like hurting Almeida's ability to distance his GC rivals there. Stage 10, he's dropped pretty early on the climb. Stage 11, he's off the front. Stage 12, he's off the front. Stage 13, he's not really there to help. Cause he's tired from being off the front. Stage 14, he's off the front. It's just feels a little unfocused in some ways, especially when you're on the cusp of like toppling Jonas Vinegar in the gc. That's. Yeah, that's where I have a hard time with it.
- [07:07]
B
Yeah. Okay. The question then is, for me, Spencer, is the fact that if Mark Soler is with the team and doing the job that for example, today Jay find it or Gross Sharpener or Michael Bjork, is that going to change anything? I think no. And also from what I have heard is that Marc Soler is actually a writer who's really liked within the group of uae. I haven't heard any criticism about internal criticism in the group or in the peloton that Mark Soler is a selfish writer, he's a strange writer. Sometimes he does things that we don't understand. That's different than if he's asked to do a job. The guy does the job really, really well. So, yeah, I mean, today I think they. He did say, and I believe that, that he was in the breakaway without even being part of the plan. He followed Company Arts, I think, who bridged across at the last moment and then from at some point. So Visma was. Visma was pulling, and we could see that Michael Bjork was driving the break. So already there, they started to play on two cards. Michael Bjerg Grove really fast the breakaway to get as much possible advantage. And the key to this for me today is Spencer, that I think. I don't think. I'm sure that they got the word that it was a really strong head crosswind on the last climb and that an attack for Almeida would be extremely difficult to distance his rivals, including Jonas. So I think that changed their plan during the stage, and they decided, okay, let's just keep it under control just in case, but let's not compromise the. The chances for the staging of Marc Soler. So it's actually funny to see because it's difficult to understand also if you look at it, because at one point you had Nickel Bjork really, really, really going super fast in the break to take advantage of much possible advantage. Then he got dropped, and he dropped back to the bunch, and then he was driving it there behind Solaire. So I think they were playing on two cards until the moment that Solaire really, you know, got the green light and attacked. And I have to say, when he attacked, he was impressive. You know, I mean, there was nobody who was able to follow that guy once he was going.
- [09:55]
A
Yeah, it's just. I mean, maybe. I mean, we should say he did the Tour, and he did a really good job at the Tour. Like, when he's with Pagachar, he just works, like, seamlessly for the team. So that could explain some of the, like, up and down. Like, a lot of the riders that have come out of the Tour de France look pretty beat up. Like Felix Gall, you would say, is not climbing at his best. Jonas Van der Garde is not at his best. So it's possible that Solaire is, like, just getting his legs from the Tour, and that's why he's not always been where he needs to be for Almeida. But let's just go back to the decision to get in the breakaway for a second so Victor Campenaerts gets up the road. Solaire and Berg go up to mark him. Because what happens. What would happen if they didn't do that? If Campinart gets in the break, what's the downside of that for uae?
- [10:43]
B
Well, I mean, the downside would be that, I mean, Solaire maybe not, but. But Bjork would probably get dropped and not be there between the second last climb and the last climb. And now he was there. So I think Company Arts was in the break to be a satellite rider, you know, who would eventually drop back if something happened, if they needed him to make a pace in between the second last climb and the foot of the last climbing, just in case there was an attack of Jonas or something, or if Jonas would get in trouble. I don't think that's part of their scenario, but you never know. So it does happen, Spencer, like, you know, if in. In the beginning of the stage when you're following wheels and it's a big group, what was it, like, 20 riders initially or more? Yeah, it does happen that you're in there without it being part of the plan at the beginning of a stage. Now, for a rider like Solaire, I would also say, you know, being. For him to be in there without trying, there might be a little thought in the back of his mind. He said, okay, if I'm in the break, you never know, you know, so. But it was not part of the plan of uae. You know, the proof is that once. Once they were on. On. On the. With 2, 3 km to go on the second last climb, they took the lead of the race and they drove it. They. They pulled the whole valley and they pulled the whole beginning of the last climb. So they still wanted to try to see if Almeida could drop Jonas and eventually try to win the stage.
- [12:29]
A
Yeah, which. Which I. I like. Even if you're not going to attack, because there was times, I think it was like 2017 maybe, where Chris Froome was cracked, but no one did this. And then they didn't know. Like, think of it was like Bardet attacked maybe up to Paragood, and. And Froome's, like, immediately losing a minute was like, well, if you would have pressed the pace earlier, you would have figured that out. But Solaire's quote is, I was covering the big moves, followed Campen Arts when He attacked to enter the break. I kept, then kept my pace on the climb. I was waiting for instructions from behind if Schwa went clear and I needed to drop back. But in the end I had the green light to push on and I'm pleased to take the stage. Happy birthday to my wife. This one's for her. So in theory, present. In theory, it's like, yeah, that, that's kind of all makes sense. I, I do wonder if, if they really asked him to sit up, would he have done it? We'll never know. We know he's, he's had issues with that in the past, but.
- [13:20]
B
Yeah, but he, he, he, he had those, he's not going to have those issues in uae. It's different.
- [13:26]
A
I, I was thinking that during people were posting that, that gif, gif during the stage of him protesting, I'm like, well, waiting for Joao Meda in this scenario is a little bit different than what he had to do at that vta. But yeah, you're right. On this stage, it doesn't really hurt them tomorrow, not a GC day likely, and then rest days. So, yeah, it kind of makes sense when you just like sit and let and really think about it.
- [13:54]
B
Plus, I mean, I seem to remember, Spencer, that Mark Soler is one of those guys that, you know, he goes in a break and he goes in another break and he gets second in a stage and third in a stage and then. And you say this guy must be exhausted. And the day after he's again in the break and wins.
- [14:08]
A
Yeah, yeah.
- [14:09]
B
You know, it's that kind of rider. I mean, he's like, you know, he's.
- [14:13]
A
He'S a super diesel.
- [14:16]
B
Listen, he's, you know, I, I've, as I said, you know, I've never heard any criticism about him for, you know, we all know the images of. On Movistar, you know, when it was in Andorra, I think that he was away and he got the instruction to wait. Was it for Quintana?
- [14:35]
A
I guess I think it was Quintana, which.
- [14:38]
B
Yeah, but you know, he was a lot young, he was a lot younger. You know, he was less experienced, super ambitious. Still, a lot of time has passed since, so he's gotten more professional.
- [14:48]
A
Yeah, I mean, as you say, that was. Reminded me, I was like, that does sound familiar about him getting the break over and over again. Last year at the Vuelta, he gets third, third, third in four days. So he gets three thirds in four days from the breakaway and then he's in the break almost every one of those Days. And then he wins out of the breakaway, and then he keeps getting in the breakaway. So.
- [15:14]
B
Yeah, affect them. This same climb. This same climb. Spencer. I don't remember which year it was, but the last time they went up there was David Godu, who won, who was second. Mark Soler got dropped in the last 100 meters from. From David Godu.
- [15:31]
A
Is he still in the race? Go do. Go do.
- [15:34]
B
I don't know. I think so.
- [15:37]
A
I can't believe I said he might finish on the podium.
- [15:39]
B
Oh, my Lord.
- [15:41]
A
Delete that, Gabriel. But why is UAE winning so much? Is. They just are better than everybody.
- [15:48]
B
It's. They're on a winning role and everything seems to work. I mean, today was not planned for sure. Yeah. And then, yeah, I mean, they have two stage wins with Jay vine, two stages with Joel Almeida. We can't call that a surprise. I mean, we know that these guys have it in them. So.
- [16:10]
A
Yeah, two stage wins with. Are you.
- [16:13]
B
So are you. So are you. So are you. So two stage wins. J Vine, two stage wins, Almeida one. Now Solaire, and then the team time trial.
- [16:22]
A
And the team time trial. So now they just need Evo Oliviera to win a stage. They need Sharpener to win a stage. Could they make the clean sweep? Mikoberg domino back?
- [16:33]
B
I don't know.
- [16:34]
A
They might be able to do it. No, no.
- [16:37]
B
But I guess something tells me it's not the last stage they're gonna win.
- [16:41]
A
Yeah. I mean, is this at some point maybe. It's. It's potentially so chaotic and just like, it's like free. Watching someone, like, do free jazz. It doesn't matter. But are the other teams gonna get mad at them at a certain point? Like, what the heck, guys?
- [16:56]
B
I don't. I mean, I. I don't think they've stolen any of those seven wins. You know, it's like they. They raced for them, they. They fought for them.
- [17:04]
A
It's not like different people a lot of the time.
- [17:06]
B
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. I have to say, you know, another. Another thing that I really, really remarked today is that whereas Visma looked to be really, really the dominant team in the mountains until stage nine, 10, the last few stages, it seems to me that UAE is definitely up there at the same strength, sometimes even a bit stronger in the mountains than collectively, I would say. Right? I mean, Jay vine, today, first of all, you saw Michael Bjork, amazing job. But Jay vine, and especially Felix Grosshardner, yesterday and today, extraordinary, extraordinary performance. And if I looked it up, I mean, Felix Grosshardner has already Done Several times top 10 in the Vuelta. So you know, it's, it's, he's obviously he's in a different role now, but he's, he's on an unbelievably good level.
- [18:06]
A
Yeah, I mean really, really good pickup there for them guys. Very strong. I, you do start to see this like Mateo Jorgensen, I don't know if he's sick but like he was dropped early today, lost quite a bit of time. He's still top 10, he's 10th. But it does kind of feel like Visma. I mean he's another guy that did the Tour. Like you just kind of feel fatigue from Visma I. A lot of it probably is because their team is largely recycled from the Tour de France. Like I, I, I kind of wonder are they going to start feeling fatigued more than the rest who did the Tour.
- [18:38]
B
So Victor Camp did the Tour. Jonas Jurgensen.
- [18:42]
A
Sepkus.
- [18:43]
B
Sepkus, yeah.
- [18:44]
A
Jorgensen A. It's largely just the same team.
- [18:48]
B
They've run back and then they have, then they have Von Barle. They have to let Galderman and who's the other guy I remember now.
- [18:58]
A
Well, what it's funny is Ben to let is actually one of their key mountain domestiques.
- [19:04]
B
Yeah.
- [19:05]
A
Maybe because he's fresh.
- [19:06]
B
He's had a bit the last two days. He was not as impressive as the week before, but still. Yeah, he's still, he's still on a really good level.
- [19:16]
A
But did we say welcome Kelderman? I think he might be the last one. I mean they're down a rider too, remember. Cuz they lost somebody at the start of the race. They lost Axel Zingle.
- [19:29]
B
Oh yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
- [19:31]
A
At the start of the race.
- [19:31]
B
Seven riders left. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
- [19:34]
A
So I, I don't know, it's just something to keep an eye on like because you're right, UAE does look stronger in a lot of these mountain situations. And Visma, if I just had to sum them up in one word it would be fatigue because even Jonas, I mean the guy is incredible but you do get the feeling like is he hanging on? And that GC group today. So you had gross chart on the front. Pelizarri comes forward with Jai Hindley. They're thinking we got to get rid of Tom Pidcock. The first sign that something wasn't quite right or ripe for an attack is Torsten Trine was on the back, was in that front group for quite a long time which as you said, it's because the headwind is so Strong. It means it's so relatively easy to sit in the group versus set the pace on the front. It's very hard to get rid of people. It's very hard to attack with the headwind and that Pelizarry comes to the front. Henley goes and like, yeah, if Henley would have gone 2km further out, I don't know if he gets any more time because of that headwind. And they, they did kind of look tired from. Yeah, doing the angry Lou, the maybe.
- [20:41]
B
The hardest climbing prosecutor you can see also. I mean, it was basically like, it was basically like an echelon. You know, they were, were, they were all in the line. You could see the, the wind coming from the left and. Yeah, I mean, you know, I also think that, that, you know, once again, Jonas did not attack. That's why I'm saying, you know, does it mean he couldn't? I think, I think yes, I think it means he couldn't. The strong headwind obviously was, was a big factor. I think Jonas is in good shape, but, but this is not prime Jonas Vingegaard. I have to, I have to say it's probably going to be still good enough to win the Vuelta, but for now I think he's not as dominant as we expected him to be before the Vuelta. Because before the Vuelta I think everybody said, well, there's no way Vingegaard can lose this race.
- [21:37]
A
Yeah, I still think he's in a.
- [21:39]
B
Great position, but it's, it's not that big of a lead as I thought it would be after Angiru and, and today's stage.
- [21:49]
A
Well, what is very common in the first week of a Grand Tour is people say, oh, these time gaps don't matter. It's gonna be minutes, minutes in the mountains. Have you looked at the parkours? What we're seeing over and over again is you actually get to these stages and these two guys are locked together. Like, I don't, I don't know if they'll be able to put any time into each other for the rest of the race until we get to the time trial because we basically have copy and pasted versions of the same stage over and over again. Stage 16 is slightly more dynamic, but stage 17, it's, it's one of these unipuerto climb these, just one big climb. At the end of the day, I think this comes down to the time trial. And like.
- [22:32]
B
Spencer, do not underestimate Bola del Mundo. I said it from the beginning, I keep saying it. That's hard, man. That's really really hard. It's super steep.
- [22:44]
A
This might be a hot take, but is hard. Good for Jonas Van Der Garde because we saw him get beat on the hardest climb in this race.
- [22:51]
B
Yeah, I think it is. I think it is. I just think, I mean, listen, Jawahar Mehta is in great shape, I think, and Jonas is not in his 100% shape, you know, and if you're 95%, hey, let's not forget you, Joel Mehda. We said before the Tour, Spencer, if you remember that Jawal Meda might be the third best stage racer in the world before the Tour de France.
- [23:20]
A
Yeah.
- [23:20]
B
You know, he crashed out of the Tour, started the Vuelta and you know, he's a great rider. So I think, I think it's gonna, it makes it an interesting race. I mean, right now, what is it, 48 seconds? 46 seconds?
- [23:40]
A
It was 46 at the start of the day. Now it's 48.
- [23:43]
B
48, yeah.
- [23:45]
A
And then third place is almost two minutes behind Almeida. So we're happy he's here.
- [23:51]
B
That's going to be the interesting, interesting race also for the podium. You know, it looks like Jay Hindley is coming into his last week typical Grand Tour mode. Tom Pitcock is holding on. He was struggling today. You know, limited the damage is 10 seconds, 12 seconds to Jay Hindley.
- [24:12]
A
Probably it was to Jay Henley. It was 10 seconds, which actually I was, I was writing these time on these time differences out kind of bigger than you'd think. Like, so how meta loses 2 seconds, Henley loses 10 seconds to Vindegaard with the time bonuses, Gall loses 15 seconds, Pitcock loses 20 and then 10 to Henley. But yeah, that was basically all in the last couple hundred meters of the climb.
- [24:38]
B
Yeah.
- [24:39]
A
Yeah, I, I do kind of wonder if Henley's going to run out of room. I don't know. How do you think the time trial is going to play out between those two? Is that a push?
- [24:48]
B
They're not, they're, they're not great time for all. It's both of them. But it's the freshness at the end of the Grand Tour. Although, you know, it is a flat time draw, so it's for specialists. But yeah, I mean, stage 18, man, guys who are in GC have always been in front in a time trial, whether it was flat or up and down or hilly. I don't know. I mean, they're both not known to be great time trialists, but I'd say probably slight advantage. Jay Hindley put it down for the tt.
- [25:29]
A
Yeah, I mean that, that's Going to be interesting to watch. I, I did pick Almeida to win this and I don't know. I, I'm, I'm not giving up hope. I believe I might believe in him more than his, the management at UA does.
- [25:43]
B
I think the management believes in him. They, they, they believe in him. I mean he. Listen, at the end of the day, we're speculating here what these guys know that we don't know is their real numbers. Right. They know what, what kind of numbers ome that's producing. And it's probably going to be very close to his best ever.
- [26:03]
A
Yeah. I mean if Tom Pickox saying he's doing his best ever power.
- [26:06]
B
Yeah.
- [26:06]
A
On these stages, it, they must be. Almeida must be flying. Absolutely flying. I was thinking about Vinegard. If, let's say he wins this, let's say it's close. Is this his first, let's call it like dog fight GC win in a Grand Tour because his, for his two Tour wins he kind of did so with like big ax swings. I think about like these knockout blows. And then he just kind of like defended the lead. It is kind of an unusual position for him to be in. Like, this is a Roglic type position. Like, okay, you have 48 seconds going into the last week. Go defend this. Like is a different way of racing.
- [26:43]
B
It's definitely a different way of racing, but it's also. The Vuelta is different than the Tour. You know, it's, it's, it's quite impressive to see. We, we talked about it before the show. Spencer, you know, he did his first Grand Tour. Was it 2020 when he was in.
- [27:00]
A
Yeah, yeah.
- [27:01]
B
Finished it. Nobody knew it knew him. You know, he did this great stage on Angliru for Primus Roglic and from then on he has never done a Grand Tour where he was not first or second. That's pretty impressive.
- [27:19]
A
That's super impressive. That's unbelievable. Like, there's only one other rider in the sport with that type of Grand Tour consistency and it's Tadded Pagachar. Do you know Pagachar's worst ever finish in a grand tour?
- [27:32]
B
Third.
- [27:33]
A
Third place. Never finished off the podium and he's done 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7. So him and Vinegar just. Yeah, I don't know what it is. I couldn't tell you why exactly they're like this, but they just have a freakish level of consistency that other people don't. Anything else I actually we should say so Israel Premier Tech. I know you and I misremembered we saw the future, perhaps. We thought they took Israel off the jersey before the start of this season. They did not, but they started today with. There was no Israel on the jersey, but the team is still called Israel Premier Tech. Do you think this will help the protest?
- [28:11]
B
No, no, no.
- [28:13]
A
They should probably. Should have started the race with that.
- [28:15]
B
No, no, I don't think it will help. I don't. Are you sure? It was just started today. Are you sure about it?
- [28:23]
A
Yeah, yeah. But I, I also. It's like a Mandela effect. I. I remembered them taking it off, but there's like multiple news articles today about them starting without it, and it was gone before the start of this.
- [28:37]
B
Yeah, I know, I know they. I know they did it on. Especially on the. The bus and the truck. The trucks and the vehicles. But. No, no, it's not going to change anything. I mean, we have to say. Okay, it seems that the protests have slowed down a bit. There was one at the beginning. No, at the end. The neutralization. Yeah, there was one big one, but it seems that it's calmed down, which is obviously, you know, it's good for the va and so.
- [29:10]
A
Yeah, I mean, I'm now checking to make sure I'm correct on this. Yes. So they did announce this morning they're switching jerseys.
- [29:17]
B
Okay.
- [29:18]
A
I thought for the first time at this Volta, the protesters weren't the problem. These normal fans on these climbs like it. It's close quarters. I was quite nervous, actually, at times about these riders. Yeah, I mean, I made it. Had a guy riding, running, like in the peloton with him.
- [29:34]
B
Yeah. Was a Portuguese flag. No.
- [29:36]
A
Yeah. Like, what are we doing out of there? Yeah, yeah, it is you. Actually, I feel like it's quite a bit different than Italy. I. I feel like there's a respect maybe present between the fans and the peloton, more at the Gird Italia than at the Vuelta, where it feels a little chaotic at times.
- [29:55]
B
I mean, listen. I mean, the Basque country, for example, the crowds are always big and, you know, I. But they do respect the riders a lot. I still vividly remember, you know, as a young professional, the first time I had to deal with this kind of experience was in the Tour of the Basque Country. The first year I went to the Tour of the Basque Country, I had never ridden on a climb with such. With. With that kind of public. And, you know, basically you. You get there, you see a wall of people and you need to get used to that, man. It's kind of freaky at the beginning. You know, you get There you don't know if you're going to pass. And they just open at the last moment.
- [30:31]
A
Yeah.
- [30:33]
B
But in general in Spain, I think the fans are more respectful. I mean, I think we see the craziest stuff we see at the tour. You know, it's so many people and people are there way, you know, like one, two days before, you know, they have parties. They usually have been drinking all morning already. So we sometimes see. Yeah, I mean, you don't see. I always have to laugh. Like, you know, we saw. We don't see these crazy adults running in whatever, a Bora Tang, a Borat. Borat swimsuit or whatever.
- [31:06]
A
Yeah, yeah, yeah, you're right. It's a little. Yeah. I mean, Garen Thomas was talking. I. He was like, what do they do up there? So you're up there for like three days. Like, what do you. How are you passing the time? It's like, that is.
- [31:18]
B
I always have to think of one thing, Spencer. You know, these are grown men and they have kids. Imagine as a child seeing your father running up that mountain, you know?
- [31:35]
A
Yeah.
- [31:37]
B
Whatever, you know, undiscovered, that should be covered.
- [31:45]
A
Well, remember this guy, Giuseppe Guerini, and he was on top of Alpe d' Huez and he just got like absolutely pegged. By a spectator.
- [31:53]
B
Yeah. By a photographer. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
- [31:55]
A
I was worried that that was going to happen today. And he still won the stage, right? Yeah, yeah.
- [32:00]
B
99.
- [32:00]
A
Yeah. Shout out. Giuseppe Greeny. That was an awesome recovery. But anything else on the stage before we move on?
- [32:06]
B
No, that's it.
- [32:08]
A
All right. I mean, Finlay Pickering, Shout out. That guy was hanging on. I was like, are they gonna ever gonna catch this guy? So apparently he, he was like a late start. Another one of these like late call ups to the race.
- [32:21]
B
Okay.
- [32:21]
A
Which is interesting to see these riders doing so well. But let's take a quick break and we'll preview stage 15. Okay, Johan, we're back. Stage 15, 168 kilometer. I guess I would call this a transition stage day before the rest day starts. On a 16 kilometer long climb. 5. Only 5%. Everyone who says only 5% should then have to go out and ride a 16k long 5% climb. And it's like rolling to downhill into the finish as a sprint. Point bonus seconds climb and then descends into the finish. This actually we had a very similar stage in 2021 won by Magnus Court in a breakaway about 15 seconds ahead of a group of sprinters. Like a large peloton with sprinters in it. I'll list off the favorites, and then we'll get your take on who's going to win. This is on FanDuel. In the US I've been finding the prices slightly better on FanDuel. Mads Pedersen at + 240. Jasper Phillipson plus 500. Victor Campinards plus 2000. Nico Denz plus 2000. Ben Turner plus 2700. Ethan Vernon plus 2700. Javier Romo plus 3500 goes on and on. We'll call them out when we need to. Again, if you want to bet, go to nxtbets.com bet outcomes. You'll see where you can bet where you live, and the best sign of bonuses for each book. But how do you think this plays out, Johan? And who do you think wins?
- [33:37]
B
I don't know how it's going to play out, but I'm going to pick someone who can win in both scenarios, and that's Mats Patterson.
- [33:45]
A
Yeah, that's a good pick.
- [33:46]
B
You know, I think he can win from a breakaway, and he can win when it's a group sprint. Although I have to say, for Mats Patterson, from now on, to win from a breakaway is not easy. It's not going to be easy because everybody knows what he's, you know, how strong he is. And there's always that one guy that can sleep, slip away. Right. But because. Because he can win from both scenarios and he's positive. 250. I'm going to pick him to win the stage.
- [34:17]
A
Yeah, I'm. I'm gonna pick him, too. I think we could see, you know, like we did the other day, like, 50 riders up the road, you're gonna have Phillips and chasing behind with Alpecin. I don't know how much Phillipson has left. I don't know how much Alpecin has left. I think if the group is big enough, it's going to be hard. And I think if Pedersen gets enough teammates, he can do this. He very simple reason. He looks very strong. Like, when you watch these stages, when he's in the early breakaway, he's pulling, like, twice as hard as everybody else. Like, he just clearly has a lot left. And at this point of the Vuelta, I don't know if a lot of people have a lot left. So, yeah, I think he can do it. But I do have a wild card. You mentioned someone slipping away. I think that someone could be Nico Dens. We saw him do exactly that at the Giro earlier this year. He won two stages of the 20, 230 in similar type of stages. So Dens is my hedge against Pedersen not coming through with the win.
- [35:19]
B
Okay. Yeah, that's a good, that's a good alternative, and I'm going to do the same. I'm going to go over Victor Campenaerts.
- [35:26]
A
Yeah, that's good.
- [35:27]
B
Be in the break and then slip away at the end. He's strong. He's done it already. And maybe Visma is going to start to say, you know what? Enough of this UAE bullshit. Winning the stages. You know, we're also sending guys on the break and go for stage wins. And I think Company Arts is the ideal man to win from a breakaway at plus 2,200.
- [35:53]
A
And what you. Yeah, I, I do think that, that eventually they're gonna be like, this is, I want to win. And as you said about Solaire, Campinarts being up the road does not negatively affect Vindergaard tomorrow.
- [36:03]
B
No.
- [36:04]
A
And it's rusty the next day. So, Yeah, I, I think that's a very good. There's a good chance of that happening. What do you think about. I just want to check in on the overall odds really quick. So this, I'm just glancing at FanDuel. Jonas Vinegard minus 425. So very heavy. Favorite Shmuel made a plus 360. I don't think anyone else realistically can win the overall.
- [36:24]
B
No.
- [36:25]
A
With those odds, who would you pick to win the overall at this point?
- [36:32]
B
Logic says Jonas. It's also going to become more and more difficult for the one and the other to drop each other, especially. Yeah, especially Almeida dropping Jonas, you know.
- [36:47]
A
And then he has to make up 50 seconds in a time trial, basically.
- [36:51]
B
Well, I mean, they could be equal in the time trial. Well, you mean, you, you mean nothing? Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
- [37:01]
A
That seems to get hard.
- [37:02]
B
I don't think he can make up 50. He's not going to make up 50 seconds on Jonas in the time trial. I, I, I think they're kind of similar when Jonas isn't great Tour de France shape probably advantage Jonas. Yeah. Maybe Almeida can take a bit of time on Jonas in the time drop. It's not good if he does it, if he does at all. It's not going to be much. 15 seconds or something.
- [37:32]
A
Yeah, he probably would have to drop him on one of these climbs.
- [37:35]
B
Yeah.
- [37:35]
A
And even at his current form, it kind of seems hard to see Vinegar getting dropped. But I'm, I'm already in the Umaeda boat, so I'm sticking. I, I'm not bailing yet.
- [37:45]
B
But you picked Omega before the start. Of the welter. No.
- [37:48]
A
Yeah, maybe. Don't have this boat with me if you're already in it. No one should be like jumping into this boat with me right now. But if you're already in it, don't give up hope.
- [37:58]
B
Yeah, no, no. It's still possible.
- [38:01]
A
All right, Johan. Anything else before we take off?
- [38:03]
B
No, that's it. We don't have a show tomorrow.
- [38:05]
A
Yeah, no show tomorrow. We'll be back on Monday.
- [38:07]
B
We'll be back on Monday on the rest day.
- [38:10]
A
We'll see who we can. Maybe it's just us. Maybe it's us plus other WEDO people.
- [38:16]
B
Probably just usually suspicion it's going to be us.
- [38:20]
A
Yeah. What's the welta? Is this the text? We're going to get back?
- [38:25]
B
What race is this?
- [38:27]
A
Three weeks. All right. Well, thank you Johan and we will talk soon.
- [38:31]
B
Okay, thanks. Bye.