Is Paul Seixas Already a Top-5 Rider? | Strade Bianche Preview | THEMOVE+

Summary

THEMOVE+ Podcast Summary

Episode: Is Paul Seixas Already a Top-5 Rider? | Strade Bianche Preview
Date: March 6, 2026
Hosts: Spencer Martin, Johan Bruyneel
Special Context: Johan is reporting live from Tuscany, prepping for Strade Bianche

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Overview: Main Theme & Purpose

This episode of THEMOVE+ dives deep into the crescendo of the spring cycling season. The hosts preview the upcoming Strade Bianche, widely regarded as the “sixth monument” of cycling, and analyze the rise of young sensation Paul Seixas. They also offer passionate tactical breakdowns and odds for Strade Bianche, and preview major stage races Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico. The conversation features insightful debates about race evolution, rider development, and changing dynamics at the sport’s highest level, all delivered in the characteristic blend of insider expertise and irreverence that defines THEMOVE.

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Strade Bianche Preview

Race Background & Context

• Strade Bianche is a newer classic (since 2007), but often dubbed “the sixth monument” due to its rapid rise in prestige.
• The course: 203km over Tuscany’s famed white gravel roads, beginning and ending in Siena, featuring relentless climbs and technical demands.
• Recent dominance: Tadej Pogacar, the world's best cyclist, has won three of the last four editions. Tom Pidcock won the only year Pogacar did not start.

Johan Bruyneel on the ground in Tuscany shares pre-race atmosphere, noting the unique field and course challenges.

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Key Discussion Points

1. The Pogacar Problem & UAE's Dominance

(04:06–06:46)

• Johan: “Pogacar is the best cyclist in the world… there’s for the moment, I don’t think there’s any indication that he’s not going to be at least the same level, if not stronger than in the past.”
• UAE’s strength means the “only possibility” Pogacar doesn’t win is “bad luck” (puncture, crash).
• Spencer: Problem for rivals – second strongest is Isaac Del Toro, who’s Pogacar’s own teammate, limiting outside chances.

2. Race Tactics & Parity

(06:46–09:00)

• Tom Pidcock’s 2025 attack with 78km to go shows that aggressive strategies can isolate Pogacar and open windows for others.
• Discussion on the race’s status as a “sixth monument.”
  • Johan: “It’s not a sixth monument and it will never be the sixth monument. There’s not enough history… the distance needs to be 250k plus.”
  • Spencer: Notes that while the race is shorter (203k), its toughness compensates.

3. The Meteoric Rise of Paul Seixas

(09:00–12:23)

• Johan & Spencer debate Seixas’ Top-5 Status:
  • Johan: “With what we’ve seen and the level that Seixas has gotten to, [he] is probably top five... best riders in the world.” (09:04)
  • Seixas matched Pogacar’s time on a pivotal climb from Euros, highlighting his remarkable potential.
  • Limited data about Seixas’ gravel handling due to minimal TV race exposure, but anticipation around his performance is palpable.
  • Seixas to possibly debut at Tour de France – rumors are “very, very likely.”
  • Johan: “He is already at the top, top, top level right now… Saturday is a great test. It’s with the big dogs, right? And it’s a very, very hard race. It’s an honest race. So he’ll be up there for sure.” (12:23)

4. Detailed Team UAE Tactics

(13:13–17:38)

• Spencer: Details Vegas odds and UAE’s possible approach: “Pagacha is the favorite, obviously. Del Toro is probably second favorite.”
• Potential lead-out men and how UAE might orchestrate the race:
  • Del Toro and Jan Christen as critical team support.
  • Johan questions teammate roles: “Kristen seems to me like a guy who’s… not known to always give it 100% for the team… Kristen could do the lead out and then Del Toro takes over. The chances that Del Toro and Pogacar go, two of them, are very high.” (15:53)

5. Who Can Beat Pogacar?

(22:30–26:23)

• If Pogacar falters, main threats are Tom Pidcock and other aggressive riders.
  • “If [Pidcock] can stay with Pogacar, he won’t win because Pogacar is going to beat him in the sprint.” (24:31)
  • Final climbs and finish up Siena’s steep square detailed—legendary for dropping even stars like Wout van Aert in the past due to its brutal grade.
  • Johan: “This is now… a climbers race.” (25:46) — explains shift away from earlier, more all-rounder-friendly editions.

6. Race Evolution & Demographics

• Only one over-30 winner, Fabian Cancellara (twice), echoing the youth movement in today’s cycling. (28:33–28:39)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Johan Bruyneel (re: Paul Seixas):
  “Identical same time… as today Pogacar on that climb… which says something about his level right now. He’s a complete bike rider. So he’ll be right in there.” (00:44, repeated at 09:04)
• Johan (on Pogacar’s chances):
  “He is the best cyclist in the world… The only possibility… is because of bad luck.” (03:04)
• Spencer Martin (on Tactics):
  “It’s almost the perfect… these Italian classics are the perfect courses for [Pogacar].” (06:06)
• Johan (debate on ‘sixth monument’):
  “It’s not a sixth monument and it will never be… there’s not enough history there and the distance needs… to be a monument, it’s 250 plus, right?” (07:30)
• Johan (on the finish):
  “I’m gonna actually do [the final climb] on Sunday… I think it’s a lot steeper than when it looks on TV.” (24:48)

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Strade Bianche Odds & Race Picks

• Favorites: Pogacar (-300), Del Toro (+700), Pidcock (+900), Seixas (+1200)
• Both hosts believe, barring mishap, Pogacar is the overwhelming favorite.
• Seixas picked as “the most interesting wildcard” and possible top-5 finish.
• Pidcock considered undervalued at the bookmakers.

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Classic Team Dynamics & Predictions

• UAE seen as likely to take full control, “nuke” the opposition on the hardest climb (Monte Sante Marie).
• If a UAE rider doesn’t win, a crash or bad luck is likely involved.
• The final climb to Siena's square is pivotal: “If you’re not a top climber, you can’t win here anymore.”

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Stage Racing Previews: Paris-Nice & Tirreno-Adriatico

Paris-Nice

(31:36–37:10)

• Eight stages: A mix of sprints, hilly stages, a team time trial, and classic tough final weekend in the hills around Nice.
• Key Contenders: Jonas Vingegaard, Joao Almeida, Juan Ayuso, Oscar Onley.
• Johan: “Jonas [Vingegaard] has to be the big favorite… the fact he added [the race] tells me that he’s ready. Otherwise, he would not.” (33:27)
• Conversation about Ayuso’s move to a new team and step up in level.
• Vingegaard touted as most likely winner.

Tirreno-Adriatico

(37:10–41:19)

• Starts with a time trial; features uphill gravel finishes.
• Starters: Isaac Del Toro (possibly fresh off a Strade win), Mathieu van der Poel, Wout van Aert, Mattias Jorgensen, and (making a debut for Red Bull) Primoz Roglic.
• Roglic’s move to Red Bull referenced as a big story: “We have to respect the guy like Primos because of what he did. … He’s going to appreciate it.” (39:18)
• Intrigue over Red Bull’s form and Roglic’s own readiness.
• Italian hopes: Antonio Tiberi, third last year, mentioned as a possible dark horse.

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Cycling Trends & Reflections

• “The racing has gotten so hard that someone like Fabian Cancellara… wouldn’t even be a contender for this [course].” (29:00)
• General agreement that stage racing season is now “really starting,” with the Belgian classics’ opening weekend complete.

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Closing

• Johan to provide on-the-ground post-race analysis after Strade Bianche.
• Both hosts excited for the stacked racing calendar ahead, and for the unique narratives new talents (like Seixas) are bringing to the sport.

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Important Timestamps

| Time | Segment/Insight | |----------|-------------------------------------------| | 00:44 | Seixas matches Pogacar’s reference climb | | 03:04 | Johan’s assessment of Pogacar’s level | | 07:30 | Strade Bianche “sixth monument” debate | | 09:04 | Seixas as a probable top-5 rider | | 13:13 | Bookmaker odds & UAE plans | | 15:53 | Detailed team tactics | | 24:31 | Final climb & win likelihoods | | 25:46 | Shift to a climbers’ race | | 28:33 | Only one over-30 winner, Cancellara | | 33:27 | Vingegaard’s Paris-Nice readiness | | 39:18 | Roglic’s Red Bull debut analysis |

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THEMOVE+ Tone & Style

• Conversation is analytical but irreverent; deeply insider yet accessible.
• Hosts blend real-time observations (from Tuscany), stats, odds, and personal anecdotes—making listeners feel like privileged insiders.

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Summary for Non-Listeners

If you didn’t catch the episode, the message is clear: Strade Bianche is now one of cycling’s most thrilling courses, made for Pogacar’s prowess—unless an outside force intervenes. Young sensation Paul Seixas is reshaping the sport’s top tier, and the tactical chess between UAE’s stacked team and a hungry field will determine the spring campaign. With Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico offering tantalizing stage-race battles, cycling fans are poised for a spectacular season of surprises and storylines, as expertly dissected by Armstrong’s THEMOVE+ team.

Transcript

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[Johan Berniel]

Reportedly did exactly the same time as today Pogacar on that climb, the climb of the European championships where Pogacar attacked and went away. So did identical same time, which says something about his level right now. We'll see how handy he is. I have no doubt that Seychas has that skill. He's a complete bike rider. So he'll be right in there. If it's a hard racehouse, it's going to be in there. Maybe I don't know what you think, but I would say for the moment with what we've seen and the level at Seiksas has gotten to is probably top five, top five best riders in the world,

[Podcast Host (The Move Plus)]

everybody. Welcome back to the Move Plus.

[Spencer Martin]

I'm Spencer Martin. I'm here with Johan Berniel. We this is our weekly show but instead of going through the cycling news of the week, we're going to do some race previews and predictions. We really the meat of the season's coming up. We're getting into serious races. We have Strada Bianchi on Saturday. Big stars facing not off. Teddy Begotcher, Tom Pidcock, Isaac Bel Toro. Wow. Bernard, Paul Seychas. And then we have Perry Nice on Sunday with Joao Meda and Jonas Finnegaard. And then we have Toreno Adriatico on Monday which is going to have Wild Van Art and Matthew Vanderpoel going against Isaac del Toro. It's going to be very exciting. But just to give people a little background information on Stratobiani. It's a one day classic, kind of the sixth monument. Newer race but getting more and more popular every year. 203km over the white gravel roads of Tuscany, starting and finishing in Siena. It is a difficult race which plays into a bit of predictability. Tada Picacho's won three the last four years. The one year he didn't win, he didn't start, was won by Tom Pidcock and it's really a simple game for him. He has his team get to the front, wind up the pace, and then he attacks on the toughest, not cobbled, climb, gravel climb. Last year though, he didn't get away clean. He had Tom Pitcock with him and then Pagat crashed, but he caught Pitcock, dropped him with the 18k to go, won the race. And Johan, you are reporting from the ground in Tuscany. You're going to be at the race on Saturday. How do you think this is going to play out and who do you think is going to win?

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, yeah. Spencer. True. I'm here with a group of American cyclists and we have a little three day event here. Very nice. I was fortunate enough to be able to get two ex world champions from my generation, Mario Cipollini and Johnny Buno to ride with us during those three days. So that's going to be really fun. And tomorrow we're actually going to preview a part of the course. We're going to go to ride this gravel section, what's called Mont Saint Marie. Mont Saint Marie, yes. Which is, which is where Pogacha usually attacks or tries to get away. So we're going to do that tomorrow. So it's going to be interesting. Yeah. Spencer, I, I, you know, with the risk of starting to sound repetitive even before, even before the season has started, but you know, Pugachar is the best cyclist in the world. He has won this race three times already. And there's, for the moment, I don't think there's any indication that he's not going to be at least the same level, if not stronger than in the past. He, he likes this race and it is a very honest race. The only possibility that I can see him not winning if it's because of bad luck. He crashed last year. It was his own fault, but he could get up and correct that. But you can also puncture. I don't know if punctures can really stop him. He has a really strong team and if you look at the, the favorites, Spencer, you know, the, the biggest rival or the guy who could potentially get closest to the Pugachar is probably Isaac Del Toro. He's, you know, he's a big talent. He's in great shape. He already won. I mean, he didn't win, but he did an amazing performance on the stage in the Giro. Over the gravel into Siena. Walt Von Aert won that stage, but he was the driving force, you know, in the breakaway and then at the end. So it's, I think it's going to be UAE all over. And yeah, is probably going to win this. I'm thinking about these other guys. You know, how frustrating must it be? And how can you keep motivating yourself to try? You know, how. Where did you get the energy and the inspiration and the motivation to say, okay, I'm starting and there might be a chance that I can win? They're all professional cyclists. They all know what can go wrong in a race. And for the moment, I think that that's what they have to hope for. Nobody wishes bad luck to a rival, but, you know, those things do happen and they form part of a race. So in case something happens, you need to be in pole position to get that opportunity. And I think that that's what those, you know, other co favorites are probably counting on. Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

And as you say, bit of an issue because the second best writer in the race is probably Isaac Del Toro and he's Pergotia's teammate. I think that's going to be a problem quite a few times throughout the year. And Strada is a specific, specifically difficult race for everybody else because it's. It's not. It's more straightforward than. Than most monuments, especially a race like Flanders. Rube, it's almost formulaic. You have these long. These climbs are harder than I remember. I rewatched the last few years over the last few days, and these are hard climbs, and they allow UAE just to get on the front, string it out. We got your attacks. It's very hard to respond to them. It's the almost the perfect. These Italian classics are the perfect courses for him.

[Podcast Host (The Move Plus)]

Hard to stop.

[Spencer Martin]

But do you remember who launched the attack last year? It was not Pagachar, which I.

[Johan Berniel]

It was Pitcock.

[Spencer Martin]

It was Pidcock.

[Podcast Host (The Move Plus)]

With 78k to go, Pidcock attacked, tried

[Spencer Martin]

to, I guess, get ahead of Pagachar, but what it ended up doing was isolating the two of them. And then Pagachar won. But I'd say, on balance, good move, because he gave it. He isolated Pagoda Char, forced him to make a mistake. He crashes. Pick could have won that race. So it's. It's not. It's not a guaranteed thing, but it's as close as you can get.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, I mean, we all know Pitcock's bike handling skills, and, you know, that's something because Pogachar is one of the best bike handlers also.

[Spencer Martin]

Yes.

[Johan Berniel]

But Pitcock has this extra skill and he was trying to put under pressure, you know, in corners, on downhills, and it's part of a race. So I agree. I agree. If If Pitcock, I mean this is probably a race that suits Pitcock one of the best. I mean, you know, you said, you said at the beginning Spencer, you know, potentially the sixth monument. I, I, I will have to disagree with that. You know, it's not a sixth monument and it will never be the sixth monument. There's the race doesn't have a long enough history and it's 200 and it's 200k. It's even I think it's. Is it 196k this year or something?

[Spencer Martin]

I think it's 203k this year. It has been sub 200 in the recent past though.

[Johan Berniel]

It's hard. It's a very hard race, don't get me wrong. But there is not enough history there and the distance needs to be a monument. It's 250 plus, right?

[Spencer Martin]

Yep.

[Johan Berniel]

There's a reason why there's only five monuments.

[Spencer Martin]

Does Ma does matter more than people think? Oh yeah, yeah.

[Johan Berniel]

Like but I think female I think Spencer with the, the toughness of this race, 250 is too much. If you see already how they Finish now after 200k another, another extra 50 or 60 kilometers. That's, you know it would not, I don't think it would add to the attractiveness of the race. You know it would, it would make people more, you know, maybe more conservative. And I don't think it would be in the benefit of the race. So I, I kind of applaud Strada Bianca to keep, to keep that race with that distance. There's plenty of terrain for, for everybody to show what they have. But yeah, I mean I'm curious to see tomorrow. Spencer Paul Ceyjas Cesas is obviously we all we talked about it in the other show is in great form. You know, was very strong in Algarve. It was super strong in that race he won in France. Super impressive. Reportedly did exactly the same time as today Pogachar on that climb, the climb of the European championships where Pogachar attacked and went away. So did identical same time which says something about his level right now. We'll see how handy he is. I have no doubt that Seychas has that skill. He's a complete bike rider. So he'll be right in there. If it's a hard race is going to be in there. Maybe I don't know what you think but I would say for the moment with what we've seen and the level that seas us has gotten to is probably top five one top five best riders in the World.

[Spencer Martin]

It's, it's. That's ridiculous because he's never raced a Grand Tour, but it could, it could be. I mean, potentially, Potentially and especially on. I mean, this is very excit. It's going to be exciting. I couldn't tell you if he's a

[Podcast Host (The Move Plus)]

great gravel bike handler or not because

[Spencer Martin]

he's only raced like eight races that have been on television because he's a child and most of his races aren't on tv.

[Podcast Host (The Move Plus)]

So maybe he's great on gravel.

[Spencer Martin]

We have no idea. But I think with these climbs, when I was rewatching past years, I thought there's, there's so few riders that even have the physiology to stay with and Seijous is probably one of them, as you said, same time on the climb last weekend. So in theory he could not get dropped. And we're at a point where not getting dropped at the initial attack is like a victory. So once you're in the game, who knows what could happen? But I, I'm quite excited to see what Paul Seych can do at Eurosport. Would have us believe his name was Paul Sex us. I cannot imagine that's the pronunciation.

[Johan Berniel]

Do you think it's. I think it is sex us, but, but not sex us. It's sex. I'll see if I can quickly, because there's this little feature on pro cycling stats. Right. So let's see.

[Spencer Martin]

Man, just trying to hang on here.

[Johan Berniel]

Here we go. Success. Success.

[Spencer Martin]

Almost like success, Paul. Yeah, success. And I, I, I, I do kind of agree with you. I think we're at a point where it's like, yeah, is this a top five writer? I'm very excited to see what he does. The big question I have for you is how does rumor, by the way,

[Johan Berniel]

Spencer, we talked about it last time. The rumors are being confirmed. I mean, it's not 100, but it is very, very likely he's going to do the Tour de France this year.

[Spencer Martin]

I'm not shocked to hear that. I think, yeah, immensely. If he can handle it physically, there's probably. He's, he must be as physically developed is, is a full, like a, a veteran professional if he can do these races like that.

[Johan Berniel]

Spencer, listen, let's hope for the rivals that that's the case because if he keeps improving. But we can't say any more about Paul Excasler right now. Okay, let's save him, let's let him develop. He is already at the top, top, top level right now. Yeah, I think what, what's. What. What probably needs to happen is that, you know, by riding a full program, a Grand Tour, he will probably have a continuous level of high performance where maybe now it's maybe going to be a bit up and down, which would be more than logical. And maybe not. Maybe he's going to be top level the whole year. We don't know. But listen, Saturday is a great test. You know, it's with. It's with the big dogs, right? And it's a very, very hard race. It's an honest race. So he'll be up there for sure.

[Spencer Martin]

It kind of reminds me of Matthew Vanderpoel. Like when he was younger, he'd have these mountain peaks, the highest of the highest. Highest I've ever seen. But he wasn't so consistent. And now he kind of hums along at this just Terminator level. Here's the odds just that people are interested. I pulled this from DraftKings. They're also on FanDuel in the US FanDuel. I found the odds to be slightly better. Pagat minus 300. So that means you have to bet $300 to win 100, which frankly could be a good deal. Isaac del Toro plus 700. Tom Pickock plus 900. Meaning if you bet one, $100, you win nine, 900 in profit. Paul Sixas plus 1200 WT plus 1400. Roman Reguire plus 2200. Ben Healy plus 3000. Matt Jorgensen plus 3000. Yan Christian Christen plus 3000. Tbo Grasso plus 6500. Matias V 8000. Tom Schoens, who got second two years ago, plus 15,000. The Pagatra might be the pick there. The question I have for you is Isaac del Toro plus 700. I would not be shocked if he gets second, but how are they going to play this? Because I rewatched last year and you know who was leading out Pagachar was Isaac Del Toro. Who on the.

[Johan Berniel]

On Monte Sant Mon Maria. Yeah.

[Podcast Host (The Move Plus)]

Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

So. And.

[Johan Berniel]

And then instead of P attacking, it was Pitcock who attacked, right?

[Podcast Host (The Move Plus)]

Yeah, Pitcock.

[Spencer Martin]

And then Pacha kind of built off that attack and they were gone. And if you remember, Tim Wellands on UA got third. He's gone this year. So they're down a man already.

[Podcast Host (The Move Plus)]

Do they hold back Del Toro and

[Spencer Martin]

have someone else do that lead out?

[Johan Berniel]

I mean, listen, they have plenty of guys. What's their teeth. So Kristen. Kristen could do that. Question is, I don't know if they had a decent talk with him. And. And because Kristen seems to me like a guy who's. I'm not going to say Mini Iuso, but there's certain trick, certain similarities there. Like, you know, is not known to always give it 100 for the team when he's. When he has to. So. But Kristen is a guy who could do the lead out and then Del Toro takes over. Listen, if Kristen does a lead out and Del Toro takes over, the. The chances that Del Toro and Pugacha go, two of them are very high.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah. Yeah. I would say, Chris. I mean, Pagacha has a superstar aura in person. Yeah.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

I would be shocked if Kristen doesn't fall.

[Johan Berniel]

He'll do it. He should do it. I mean, yeah, probably. I mean, he will probably do it. Who else do they have on the team?

[Spencer Martin]

They have. So they have Jan Christen Del Toro.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

Doman Nobak, Kevin Vermarca, who could play that role too. Also Florian Vermeesh. This is an incredible strong team. Wow.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

I mean, I, I like Kevin and I know him and I'm biased, but I think he could, he could actually play that punch role if they.

[Johan Berniel]

Well, probably at the beginning of Mon. Somebody depending on. It all depends, Spencer, what UAE needs to do before. You know, I mean, if you look at Novak, Florian Vermeers and Kevin Vermarke, you know, they, they will have to do a lot of work at the beginning already because let's not forget that the whole responsibility, the whole weight of this race is on team uae. So what does that mean? Anything that happens and there are going to be groups going and there's. And then it's a negative, passive way of racing because everybody says, okay, uae, you're so strong. You know, figure it out now. You know, solve the problem. So that's hard, you know, that's hard for a team and especially nowadays teams of seven riders. So it might be very well. And most likely that. That, you know, guy like Vermarke has. Has Spent already so much energy before that he won't be able to do the lead out on Monsemor. I could see that. But yeah, I mean, listen, they still have other guys to do it, you

[Spencer Martin]

know, very strong team.

[Johan Berniel]

So Gross Ardner, Gross Artner and. And Kristen and Del Toro and obviously the three. The three. The four climber, best climbers of. And then the three others will be Vermeers and Novak and Vermarke will be the workhorses for the beginning.

[Spencer Martin]

And there's a big. It's kind of a funny race because it's. There's a big climb that we never see that like I rewatched last year and it it clipped on like the coverage comes on right after the climb. So I'd imagine they're going to burn through all everybody except those elite climbers. It's a funny race because you turn it on and the race is on like they're in the heat of the battle. You don't normally see that with the race, but Johan, let's take a quick ad break and then I'm going to talk about I have some bad news for American listeners and then I'm going to have a few more questions about the race for you when we come back. Everybody.

[Podcast Host (The Move Plus)]

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[Spencer Martin]

so we're back and I don't want to cause panic amongst anyone, but this race. It's an RCS race. All RCS races, or at least I thought were going to be on HBO Max this year. I go onto my HBO Max schedule today. It's not on there. Torano Adriatico is on Monday, but not Strato Bianchi. So maybe it gets added in the next two days. If it does not, you're going to have to pirate it aboard your ship and get get on the high seas. Or use a VPN to say you're watching from Canada and watch some flow bikes, which is how I watch most races. But just pray and check HBO Max. It's weird that it wouldn't be on there. I don't know.

[Johan Berniel]

Well, Spencer, we're in Italy. You know, there's, there's always, there's always

[Spencer Martin]

haven't hashed out the deal yet.

[Johan Berniel]

There's always last minute. Yeah, yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

I, I keep saying this. I can't believe it happened. But the team started the Giro years ago and they didn't have their third week hotels. It's like, whoa, cutting it close.

[Johan Berniel]

Been there, done that.

[Spencer Martin]

As wild. And I'm sure, I'm sure they're bucking up the nicest ones when they're booking that late.

[Podcast Host (The Move Plus)]

So let's.

[Spencer Martin]

Pagacha is the favorite, obviously. Del Toro is probably second favorite. How does. If they die, if UAE does not win? I think both of us expect them to put that strong team on the front, nuke everybody on the first hard climb, and then launch Pagatra on the second hard climb, Monte San Marie. If they don't win, how does that happen? Is that a crash from Pagar? And then who of these other riders who do you think potentially could win?

[Johan Berniel]

I mean, it's. Listen, it's possible because it's bike racing.

[Podcast Host (The Move Plus)]

Things can almost happen.

[Spencer Martin]

Last year.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. I mean, listen, if P doesn't get back up.

[Spencer Martin]

For sure, for sure.

[Johan Berniel]

I think, I think the, you know, the guys we, we talked about Pitcock, although Pitcock was not impressive at all in, in, in news blocks. Yeah, but it's different. It's not the same race. Different race, different temperature, different climate. This is a really good race for Pitcock. He's great at positioning on. In these. In these kind of races. That performance, Spencer, he did it on that climb. There is nobody else who has done this type of performance in the last two years, except if you can do that. And, and then on top of that, what was really impressive is that, you know, he did that performance on that climb and then rolled two minutes away from everybody.

[Spencer Martin]

I know.

[Johan Berniel]

That's Pogachar esque, right?

[Spencer Martin]

And that tells you he's. He's dropping everyone at such a relatively easy effort. He has that much left to pile it on. I mean, that's unbelievable.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah. So I'm curious to see him. Whatever he did last weekend, he's still in. He still has that shape, he still has that form.

[Spencer Martin]

You know, I think, I think he's underpriced at plus 1200. I think that's probably. If you're looking for a bargain, that's the one to bet on.

[Johan Berniel]

Well, yeah, and the thing is, okay, obviously, you know, if he can stay with Bogachar, he won't win, you know, because Bogachar is going to beat him in the sprint.

[Spencer Martin]

Well, we should say it finishes up an incredibly steep climb to the square in Sienna. Like, very steep. Wat Bernard, in his first edition, cramped and fell off his bike on this.

[Johan Berniel]

I'm going to, I'm going to actually do that on Sunday because on Sunday we do the Gran Fondo with, with our group here. 138 kilometers. And so I'm, I'm gonna have a feel of how steep it really is. I think it's a lot steeper than when it looks on tv.

[Spencer Martin]

I think if a guy of the caliber of Vanart is falling off his bike, it's gotta be. So.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, well, okay, Spencer, we need to take that with a grain of salt because that was when Vanart was starting as a road racer. Right. It was his first full season on the road.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, he was new. It's not like he was like three time cross world champion.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, yeah, yeah, exactly.

[Spencer Martin]

He's like, let me try out this sport. It's funny. So what happened Arts in this race, the last time a peloton came to this square van Art won at stage nine of the Giro d' Italia beat Del Toro. But do you. I personally think the race has gotten too hard for Wild Bernard to repeat a victory. Do you agree?

[Johan Berniel]

Yes, yes, I do. I mean this, this is now the reason publicly. Matthew van der Poel said it, public said I'm not going anymore because it's coming. It's became a claim a climbers race. And you know, we've seen also we've seen more and more this strength with these like five, six specific, you know, big riders that whatever, they can't win, they don't start. And so yeah, I mean, I understand Vanderpool's. He knows that if Del Toro and Pugach and say Sauce are there, he can't win. It's too hard. There's too much elevation over.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, I can understand a one day you can't win. You think you can't win and then you have a stage race on Monday. Maybe, maybe you skip that one day race. Even though we should say this is that we're kind of being down on it. It is a beautiful race. It's one of my favorite races to watch. I think you're right. Not every race has to be a monument. You know, it's nice that it's shorter. It knows what it is. Started in 2007 and has gotten incredibly popular very fast. It's a lot of new races don't get popular. So we commend it for that. I probably think Bachar wins and I think we probably both think Paul Seas is the pick. Outside of that, is there a chance that I was thinking about this is uae. Do they head fi everybody and instead of blowing the race up, do they sit back and say, hey, you guys want to win, you got to drop us or. Or is that not going to Happen.

[Johan Berniel]

No, they're going to take responsibility. They. That that's. They raised the whole season like this. Yeah. I think they're taking control of the race, and they're not going to let anything, you know, uncontrollable happen. Whatever. Whatever can be controlled, they will control. And then there's things that are out of your hands.

[Spencer Martin]

That's.

[Johan Berniel]

That's part of. Of the bike race. But whatever they can control. They will. They will.

[Spencer Martin]

And if something happens, they have Del Toro sitting there. So pretty good position that they're in. No. I don't envy their rivals. This is a crazy fact. Do you know how many riders over the age of 30 have won this race?

[Johan Berniel]

Did V. Was he maybe was not 30 yet?

[Spencer Martin]

No, because that was in.

[Johan Berniel]

He was still on BMC. I think he was on BM. I think he was on BMC.

[Spencer Martin]

He got second twice. Oh, he didn't win. 70. No. Okay.

[Johan Berniel]

Okay. Yeah. One year. I remember one year he was up there and it was Steve Bar who won. I think if I'm not mistaken, Steve

[Spencer Martin]

Bar and Kiev Koski were the two people that beat him. Yeah.

[Johan Berniel]

Okay. Okay. Not many over 30. No.

[Spencer Martin]

Only one rider. He did it twice. Fabian Chara Canara.

[Johan Berniel]

Okay. Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah. Crazy.

[Johan Berniel]

Well, you know, that was at the. That was at the beginning. I mean, like a race like now. There's no way Cancelara can win this on this.

[Spencer Martin]

On this course.

[Johan Berniel]

You know, I mean, he was. He was definitely not enough of a climber.

[Spencer Martin]

You're gonna send us down. The man won Tour of Switzerland. So he did win Tour of Switzerland.

[Johan Berniel]

Correct.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, he did.

[Johan Berniel]

Maybe.

[Spencer Martin]

Could Pete Cancelara beat Pete? But gotcha. On this course, I mean, the race was a. Was just physically way easier than it had. Less climbing, too. Yeah, yeah, yeah. But I mean, that shows you what we're dealing with. The racing has gotten so hard that someone like Fabian cancel out one of the strongest riders probably to ever ride a bike. Wouldn't even be a contender for this. Yeah. That shows you there's something. On today's.

[Johan Berniel]

On today's course. On today's course.

[Spencer Martin]

On today's course. Yeah. And that's why San Remo, you know, we're going to adjourn, come back for Sano. And it's kind of the opposite of this. Everything's on the table because the course is easier, which, frankly, probably makes it a little bit better. You have anything else to say about this race before we move on to this? I'm.

[Johan Berniel]

I'm super excited to be here on. On the spot. And you know we're to go watch on Saturday and then ride it on on on Sunday. So. Yeah. But anyways on Saturday we after the race we have, we have a podcast analysis together with George and will tell you all the all about it.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, so it's going to be. Yeah, George and you will be on the ground and should be good insight for the show. Let's take another quick break then we'll talk about the stage racing everybody.

[Podcast Host (The Move Plus)]

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[Spencer Martin]

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[Spencer Martin]

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[Spencer Martin]

Okay Johan. So strata on Saturday Sunday rolls around. Boom. Parry N is starting. It is eight stages starts in actually should the race should be called Parisian suburbs and then a few days, two days at least because you kind of start it by pairs. They dink around in that region and then they. They start quickly going down to nice fun race. Because you see the weather just gets. It's unrecognizable as the same a country wants to get Denise very hard racing traditionally in the first windy wet a lot of crosswinds starts like hilly stage, sprint stage stage one, hilly stage two, sprint stage three, team time trial. But it's one of these ASO classic time trials where they count the time from the first rider. So it's how they're going to do at the tour this year. It makes you think about it differently than a normal team time trial. Uphill finish stage four, uphill finish stage five, hilly mountain stage stage six, mountain stage like really tough summit finish on stage seven. And then this classic nice to nice circuit race. Not circuit hard.

[Johan Berniel]

Very hard. Very hard.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah. They do multiple loops around. Nice up down cold as very hard, very tricky Race can be won and lost on that on Sunday. These starters are Joao Maida. These are just like big, big ones. I'm picking out Jonas Vinegard Juana you so Oscar Onley, Kevin Vauclan, Lindy Martinez, Mateusz Gamoza, Binyam Girmai Dorian Godin who probably is going to win a stage. Milan Freton who could win a stage. Ivan Romeo who could win a stage. And he goes on and on. Pavel Sivakov is there. But I think this is going to be fascinating. I'm really interested to watch the Almeida Vinegard Ayuso on Lee GC Battle.

[Johan Berniel]

It's interesting.

[Spencer Martin]

I mean this is going to be

[Johan Berniel]

a really interesting race, Spencer because you know there's. These guys are strong and they are quite equal. You would say normally, you know, if it's, if this is like a, you know, super hard race. Jonas is in theory a level above these guys and then you have today who's two levels above them. So we don't know how Jonas. Listen, the fact that he starts, the fact that he added it to his calendar when it was not first in the plan tells me that he's ready. Otherwise he would not have added it to the, to the, to the program. So Jonas has to be the big favorite. I think weather can be a big factor in Paris. Usually they don't call it for nothing the race to the sun. You know, the race to the sun. So you start, you don't see the sun and gradually you start seeing the sun as you go south. But yeah, I mean, yeah, Finger guard kind of also performs well in, in, in bad conditions. I think. I think it's, it's. It's Jonas and Almeida and are you. So the three big favorites only is up there. But I think these three are probably. I mean I'm, I'm expecting Almeida already on a higher level than, than on in. So yeah, I mean we, I think we talked about the favorites. It's, it's.

[Spencer Martin]

The spinning champion is not here, by the way. Matteo Jorgensen.

[Johan Berniel]

Okay. Yeah, he just did, you know, other article. Yeah, yeah. So you want us Almeida you saw and we're gonna put Oscar only in it also. But other than that, you know, if I don't. Lenny Martinez can, in my opinion cannot win this race unless he get.

[Spencer Martin]

He's like in the front of an echelon and they're all cut out. I mean, what's he gonna.

[Johan Berniel]

I mean, the team time trial. I mean, they're going to lose time in the team time trial already.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, I mean, Lenny Martinez is probably not going to win this race. If I had to pick a Frenchman gun in my head, I'd pick Kevin Bauclaw actually to win this race. Yeah, he kind of reminds me of a Mateo Jorgensen who you would not expect to go up against these guys and win, but can do it on a pair and east type course. I'm quite curious to see how Jonas looks. We haven't seen him for a long time. He couldn't do us. I've seen picture Spencer and he crashed out last year, got broke his wrist. Never won this race.

[Johan Berniel]

The pictures I've seen as is, you know, is that he is very good condition, skinny, super, super in shape.

[Spencer Martin]

I mean, everything's going toward him showing up to this race and smacking everybody and kind of reminding us the gulf between not only Pagacha and Jonas, but Jonas and everybody else.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

The only thing I'm wondering about is it's kind of go time for Juana. You so, you know, goes to a new team, doesn't, you know, leaves ua bad taste in his mouth. Did not go that well. Probably felt underappreciated the, like you want to be the guy. This is how you be the. You step up and you beat the current guy.

[Podcast Host (The Move Plus)]

So.

[Spencer Martin]

And he's very good at one week stage races. That's the only person I can see beating Ben Guard at this race.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, yeah, yeah. I used to listen, I used as a big talent, 1, 1 Algarve, you know, straight away, first race delivered to his new team. And this is another step up, you know, the other race, the, the, you know, the equivalent of Paris Adriatico who won that last year, you know, so yeah, we have to count him as one of the favorites.

[Spencer Martin]

And it's kind of cool that he's, you know, we were complaining about, oh, the only people that can beat Pagacha on his own team. It's cool that Ayus is no longer on UAE and then is coming to parry knees. So we have Jonas and him going head to head versus the split program is common. You know, like Pigachar would do Toreno and Jonas does parry and so they don't have to face off against each other. Speaking of Torino, Adriatico starts on Monday, goes to Sunday, so it's one stage shorter. Starts with this classic time trial. It's a hot dog, you know, go up one side of the street, down the other side of the street. Time trial, 11k long uphill finish on stage two gravel uphill two I believe quite steep. I'm looking at it now. It's like 7% gravel ramp for over a kilometer. Pencil Vanderpoelin is the winner there. Stage three, sprint. Stage four, hilly. Stage five, hilly. Stage six summit finished. Stage seven classic. I don't know why they do this. It finishes with the sprint stage like it's a grand tour, but it's a seven day stage race. Interesting start list here. He's like Del Toro, fresh off Estrada win. Who knows going to do it. And then we have Matthew Vanderpoel, Wout, Ben our Mateo Jorgensen. And then the sprinters are interesting. Arnold Daly, Paul. Paul Monier. Christian Scrone is here. He might win this whole thing. This is early enough in the year. Scrone could win every stage and the overall. No, there's no one better at winning early season races than him. Felix G. Also here, Ben Healy, Michael Storer, who's someone to watch, actually Antonio Tiberi.

[Podcast Host (The Move Plus)]

Someone to watch.

[Spencer Martin]

And then out of hibernation, out of his cave in the Alps, Primos Roglic is coming to the start line. That's going to be interesting.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, I'm curious to see how Primos is going to show up. I mean, listen, if, if we go off what we've seen from Red Bull at the beginning of the season, they've done their homework. You know, all the races I've seen from Red Bull, they were present and they were in certain races they were dominating and putting their stamp on the race. Primos. I think we should, we should. We have to respect the guy like Primos because of what he did. And the guy's a pro, you know, I mean like he's gonna be, he's gonna appreciate it.

[Spencer Martin]

This, this is going to be the

[Johan Berniel]

most important stage race. Spencer del Toro. If you look at Del Toro, Van der Poel, Van Aert Jurgensen, Primos, Walt and Van der Poel are going to go for stages, of course, but you know, if you Look, Del Toro versus Primos versus Jorgensen. We could, we could have a. Have a really good race on our hands. Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

And I would. Filipeo Ghanaziri almost won this last year, but they made it slightly more difficult, especially stage six. The summit finish is not long. It's three and a half K, but it's nine percent average, which is good for Primos, so also good for Del Toro, I would imagine. So. I'm quite curious to see how this plays out. I probably, I probably would pick Primos, but this is the age where you start, you start picking these guys and you're thinking, I think he can do it and they can't do it.

[Johan Berniel]

Is Pelizar racing?

[Spencer Martin]

He is. He is racing his teammate. Okay. Okay. Now I would not say this is not his specialty. Like a explosive 9K summit finish. Explosive.

[Johan Berniel]

He's a good rider.

[Spencer Martin]

1K.

[Johan Berniel]

I mean, I.

[Spencer Martin]

No one loves. No one loves them more than I do. I think the probably. I could probably win the year to tell you.

[Johan Berniel]

How about Tiberi is the very racing.

[Spencer Martin]

He is racing. He could be. Okay. Okay, we need to call.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah. And those guys we need to mention then them together.

[Spencer Martin]

Jonathan here is here as well. I don't think an Italian has won this race since Nebali in 2013.

[Johan Berniel]

Wow.

[Spencer Martin]

So they tried to, they tried to engineer the route last year for Ghana to win and he didn't quite do it. Tibery got third last year here. Okay, interesting. I mean, yeah, I don't know.

[Johan Berniel]

Probably.

[Spencer Martin]

I don't know. Del Toro wins. If we're being honest, you guys so strong, but I'm curious to see how it plays out. Those Italians could surprise us. Anything else, Johan, before we take off?

[Johan Berniel]

No, that's it. You know, we got the, the opening weekend of the classics out of the way. So, you know, we in Belgium say, okay, the real cycling season has started and now with Parini Centileno, that's, you know, the stage racing season has started. The real one. So we'll be back to report on that next week.

[Spencer Martin]

Do. Do you think Jonas Vinegard wins Paris?

[Johan Berniel]

I think so.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, me too. But yeah, that's. I mean, both of these we have. We're spoiled for choice next week. Two interesting stage races going on at the same time. Enjoy the race. We'll talk on on Saturday before your big grand fondo on Sunday.

[Johan Berniel]

Okay, thank you.

[Spencer Martin]

All right, thanks, Johan.