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Is UAE's Playing the Long Game? | Vuelta a España Stage 4 Analysis & Stage 5 Preview | THEMOVE+
00:37:45
Johan Bruyneel and Spencer Martin break down Ben Turner's surprise win on the fourth stage of the Vuelta a España, where David Gaudu narrowly took the race lead from Jonas Vingegaard on an otherwise quiet day for the GC. Before they go, they preview...
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- [00:00]
A
Man, Jonas and Visma are really putting a lot of energy into this. And you know who's not putting as much energy into this? Uae. And then you look at the second half of the route and you think, would I really want to invest any excess energy outside of those stages? Because I know I'm the seconds guy. I'm always saying every second counts. You know, I understand in modern cycling 10 seconds is a lot, but you look at those stages and yeah, well, 10, 12 seconds on stage two really matter, probably.
- [00:30]
B
I think, I think the same way as you say. Now.
- [00:36]
A
Everybody, welcome back to the Move Plus. I'm Spencer Martin. I'm here with Johan Bernal. We are breaking down stage four of the Valta Espana won by Ben Turner over Jasper Phillipson and Edward Planart. And we, after we break this down, we will preview tomorrow's stage five, a critical team time trial that I'm actually quite interested to see. But just a quick primer on what happened during today's stage. We had mountains. If you looked at the profile, it kind of looked like a mountain stage, but it really was always going to be a sprint stage because we don't really see the mountains on tv. They cross the Alps like Hadrian. We don't see it. And then the breakaway is caught with 90k to go quite early. Mads Pedersen wins pacing from little track. And then Mads Pedersen wins the intermediate sprint, gets full 20 points. Ethan Vernon second, Julia Ciccone gets in fourth. And then I think David Godu's fifth trying to get up there for those bonus seconds. That means Jasper Phillips and gets nothing coming into the finish. Ben Turner is very positioned very far up by Mikhail Kievkoski from is any of his teammate. It's, it's a, I would say unnecessarily hectic finish. And then with 500 meters to go, Mads Pedersen is in pretty good position. Alpecon goes left, other teams go right. Ben Turner falls Alpeson. Mads Pedersen misses that move. He's immediately caught behind. Already out of the race basically. And then Ben Turner just kind of perfectly reads the road in the final few hundred meters, sprints ahead to win the stage over Phillipson, who's probably not at his best. I think it's Turner's second World Tour win in the last 30 days, but only his third win pro win of his career. So he's definitely trending up. Other highlight of the day is David Gadu finishes far enough in front of Jonas Fender. Not time wise, just placing wise since they're tied on Time. Then it pushes Gadu's cumulative finish positions up high enough that he takes the race lead in France, which is probably significant for him. Jonas Vinegard gets rid of the red jersey before the time trial. It's. It's perfect for both parties. Johan, what is your take of the day?
- [02:45]
B
Yeah, well, you, you summed it up perfectly actually, you know, before we start to talk about the race, I, I checked yesterday, we said, you know, there's two climbs at the beginning. Those climbs are really hard. It was Montjenevre, which is. Which is hard. I mean, from that side it's a bit. And then the other climb, the second climb is a Col du Lautare, which is the beginning of the Galibier, actually, because you go up the Col de la Terre and if you would take a right, that's like the, the Galibier where last year attacked in the Tour and dropped Jonas. So that's where they went up. So anyway, my take of the day, of course, I mean it's. It's Ben Turner win. But actually the story behind Ben Turner's win, I mean, I don't know if you've seen this, Spencer. Super, super interesting. He talked about it in the interview. But Ben Turner was. Started the Renovi Tour. He was at the Renabee Tour. He was not supposed to ride the. The Vuelta and on Friday. So. So Rename Tour started. I guess so was it Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, Saturday? So one starts off. So it was the third day in the Rename Tour. In the bus, one of the directors said, hey, you know, we have an issue. Is it was. Is it Chris. Is Chris Harper on the nails?
- [04:10]
A
Chris Harper's on Jayco, I believe. Right?
- [04:14]
B
Somebody. I mean, I don't know.
- [04:15]
A
I think it was.
- [04:16]
B
There was somebody. It's almost a similar writer. No, it's not Chris Harper because Chris Harper was the guy who won in. Who won in the Giro, right? Yeah, the stage in. In the Giro. Anyway, I don't remember who it was, but they said, well, you know, this guy, he can't race the Vuelta. Who, who wants to go? And Ben Turner said, I want to go at the renaming Tour on Friday.
- [04:45]
A
Which overlaps with the Vuelta, by the way.
- [04:47]
B
Yeah. So yeah, instead of doing the stage on Friday, he abandoned the Renovate Tour, took a plane to Italy and started the Vuelta on. On Saturday. And four days later he wins the stage. That's. That's quite something.
- [05:03]
A
Is that the second time that's happened ineos this year? Do you remember earlier in the year they won a Prologue at a stage race. I want to say Roman D with Sam Watson. And Sam Watson was flown in the night before.
- [05:16]
B
Correct. Correct.
- [05:17]
A
And then wins the stage. Yeah.
- [05:19]
B
Correct. Yeah.
- [05:20]
A
Something to that perhaps.
- [05:21]
B
Yeah, yeah. So that's, that's the story behind the victory of Ben Turner is my, my fact of the day.
- [05:28]
A
Wow, it's, it is a really impressive win. I mean he won if you were real sicko and you're watching Tour of Poland. He wins stage three of the Tour of Poland. Impressive. It was a hard stage. You know, he's not like a, he's not a sprinter. He's kind of a, I guess like a hilly one day rider. But then even going all the way Back to stage 12 of the Gird Italia this year it's. If you remember, Wout van Art had this amazing lead out. Olaf Coy wins. Casper van Hooden second. Ben Turner was third. And I remember that stage thinking, wow, that's a pretty good bunch sprint result for Ben Turner. And then today he puts it all together like this guy's been a big talent for a long time. He's 26 years old, only three wins and then. But if you think about it like he won the stage back in 2023 and I thought, wow, he's going to go on to win a lot. He goes Dormant basically for two years and now he's won two World Tour races within basically 20 days.
- [06:21]
B
Yeah.
- [06:22]
A
So, yeah, very, very good run of form for Ben Turner.
- [06:24]
B
So the rider Ben Turn is replacing is Lucas Ham. Them. Okay. Yeah, he was, he was the guy. I mean he's, he's, he was probably one of their, you know, like the main support guys also for, for Egon Bernal. But that's quite, quite impressive. You know, I mean it's also, I mean takes a lot of courage from a guy like Ben Turner who obviously he's been racing a lot now the last few weeks, I guess, you know, Poland Renovi to say, hey yeah, I want to go. I mean it's, it's a three week commitment. You have to decide in a split second. That's, that's quite something. Not everybody would be ready to do that, you know, or have the confidence to say, hey, I'm going the day before.
- [07:07]
A
Yeah, kind of. Yeah, it's kind of an intense thing to commit to 24 hours before.
- [07:12]
B
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
- [07:14]
A
And so he was being let out by Mikhail Kipkowski. And then you said, I didn't see it, full disclosure, but you said after the stage that Kiyoski was incredibly emotional.
- [07:23]
B
About. Yeah, I was, I was surprised to see, you know, Grzkowski was incredibly emotional. They interviewed him. I mean, you know, I mean, Kotkovsky is. He's won some big races in his career. You know, he was world champion. He won Amstel gold race twice, I think. I think he won it twice. He won Milan San Remo stages at the Turia. World champion. And. And he was extremely emotional for a stage win in the Vuelta of a teammate. So obviously, we all know also Kwadkowski comes back from difficult season. I think he had an injury, a knee injury, which he had never had that kind of situation to deal with. And I could see already in Poland that he was, you know, quite emotional. But, yeah, it also shows, I think the fact that Katkovsky had this, you know, was so, so emotional. Ben Turner is obviously a guy who always gives it 100 for his teammates. And everybody, every single one of his teammates just wants to see Ben Turner win. And today was the proof. Seeing Jatkowski's interview after the finish was telling.
- [08:40]
A
The funny thing about INEOS is so the first seven months of the season, they had six World Tour wins. Essentially in the last month they have five. But they've been doing it. The big conversation about ineos, like what we were talking about yesterday, it's like, who can they add? Who can they add? But it's really like couch cushion cash that they've been coasting on. Like, Timon Arnsman, who's been on the team for a long time, gets two wins at the two stages of the Tour. Ben Turner has two World Tour wins, and then Victor Langelotti. It's like these guys that have been there, I guess Langelotti is a new signer, but he was not a highly touted signing. Like, it's just these people hiding in plain sight that are now kind of blossoming for the team. Like, what do you attribute that to?
- [09:22]
B
Well, they. They just race differently, you know, they mean. I think they've been. INEOS has been stuck into that pattern that they had, you know, in the. In, you know, since when would I say since 2012. I would guess 2012, when. When Bradley Wiggins won the Tour de France for the first time for them. And then they had this series of wins and Grand Tours and they had this pattern of racing. We control what we can control and then our leader finishes it off. And they kept going like this even when they didn't have that finisher anymore. And I think they. They made the switch. They made the switch. They raced Differently this, the whole season already that they race differently. And I mean it's, it's, it pays off. They had some really good wins already this year. Where in the past we've been critical of, you know, saying hey, what, what is Ineos doing? Why are they racing like this if they have nobody who can win the race or finish it off? So it's definitely, yeah, a good, good, a good change.
- [10:25]
A
And they've been, I mean it's been like that since like high end, you know, back in early season. Like they just started the season fundamentally different than they have in the years past. The other big takeaway of the day. Well, I guess here we should talk about the, the writer. I picked Mads Betterson just completely out of position second day that I don't want to say he's been like alone. I just, I rewatched yesterday's finish and it's like, ooh, the fact that Chacone is going for GC like kind of left him a little shorthanded perhaps. And then today he's like freelancing in the final few hundred meters when Phillipson still is a lead out rider. Like what, what is going on with little track in the last few hundred meters here?
- [11:09]
B
I mean look, if you look at today's stage also if you look at the top 10, you know, it's, it this, there's not many sprinters there. I mean there's not many sprinters. First of all, there's not many sprinters at this Vuelta that's, let's start with this. But you know, like there's guys there that you wouldn't expect to be there. And I don't know, I mean obviously trek little track, they do a lot of work during the stage. So it's obviously difficult to have yeah guys remaining in the final. But today was, you know, today was a stage where I think Peterson had a chance. You know, it's the fourth day, some kind of fatigue starts to settle in, you know. But Spencer, you know, I think the last time Pedersen did The Vuelta was 20, 22 when he won the points jersey. You know, Peterson didn't win his first stage until stage 13 in that Vuelta.
- [12:05]
A
I did not know that.
- [12:07]
B
It took him 13 stages to win his first stage and then he won another stage and then he had a couple of second places but he didn't win until stage 13. So, you know, there's still time. There's still time. He's obviously a guy who gets or he keeps his power when through, through the stage race where Where. Where. While others fade away.
- [12:28]
A
It's actually, I remember this because we recorded our outcomes from Munich and he had three second places basically to start the race in, in the Netherlands, which is where that race started. Yeah, I had forgotten this. Yeah, that's a very good point, Johan. You know, it's almost like Wout van. He almost reminds me of Wout van Art right now. He can, like, start Grand Tours a little.
- [12:49]
B
Yeah.
- [12:49]
A
Slow in turn of stage wins. And then it's like once the engine gets turning over, it's impossible to stop him. Only thing is on points classification. So Pedersen takes the lead today because he picks up max points at the intermediate sprint. Still a decent amount of points at the finish. Like 15 points at the finish. He's leading Ethan Vernon by two points. The problem here is fifth place Jonas Van Der Guard, 65 points. And I looked at the second half of this race. It's not like the Tour, where the sprint points are at the beginning. Like, you're going to have to get very deep into these mountain stages to score sprint points. So it could be that Jonas Finegaard is walking into a points jersey at this vault, or at least he's going to be difficult to stop. Maybe Pedersen is up to the challenge.
- [13:33]
B
I think, you know, we've talked about that yesterday, Spencer, you know, when we tried to find an explanation of why Jonas was sprinting and, you know, we said, yeah, maybe he wants to go for the points jersey or. I mean, thinking back on that statement, I just can't imagine Jonas Wingard making it an objective at the start of the race. It's. If he wins the points jersey, it's going to come to him. It's. I mean, I can't see him going after it already now. That's just. That's just ridiculous.
- [14:03]
A
Well, even looking back, it's more confusing because even yesterday, after yesterday's stage, I was thinking, huh, that's kind of weird that Giannis was sprinting for the finish, because if he finishes further back, David Godude takes the race lead. Jonas goes into the time trial without the leaders jersey, which is everybody's goal, because it's fat, just physically faster. And I guess it's nice not to have the leaders jersey. You get to go home early. Who doesn't want to go home? But yeah, well, I think.
- [14:29]
B
I think, Spencer, I think that, you know, our. I think our theory about the skin suits and stuff, we've debate. We've been debating about it during the Tour also. I just. I just think they don't care. They you know, plus for a team time trial it's not, you know, it's not as important as for an invisible time trial because you know, you're in the bubble of the team. I just don't, I just don't think that's the reason. Today obviously we saw that Godu is in red jersey. Now. I am pretty confident that that's even a pre arranged conversation they had with finger guard saying, Finger guard saying hey, you know what, I'm not, I'm not interested. I'm gonna sit back, just make sure you're in the front and that, you know, because they were on the same time. Right. So it was whoever had the better placings. As long as there's enough spaces in between. I think that's a conversation that happened at the start of the, of the stage or even before or even even yesterday at the warm down, the cooldown on the rollers. Just because, you know, winger guard just didn't want to do podium today, you know, didn't want to do the interviews. I think it's highly likely he has it back tomorrow. So it's just one day. Yeah, but that's something that it put just for the listeners. This, I mean it may be difficult to understand. This was pre arranged. Godou knew because he had for sure a conversation with Vingegaard at least in the stage that Jonas would not be up there in the finish. And as long as Godu was up there and there was 5, 10, 15 places in between, he would have the leader jersey which is great for Godu. You know, I mean red jersey and a grand tour in France. It's, it's, it's a good, it's a good morale booster.
- [16:31]
A
Yeah, it's like a win win too because like I said then Jonas gets to go, go home right after the stage, doesn't have to stay for the podium. I would want to do that. So I, I would say, yeah, sounds great, take the red jersey. Someone commented during the tour, I thought it was a pretty good comment on one of our videos and it was like, well how, how can these behind the scenes deals be allowed if they're taking money? Because I bet there was the bed of the day that we didn't do that I'm myself for is go do over Vindegaard head to head. Because it was probably always going to happen this way. If you knew that deal, if you're privy to that information, you would have had a massive advantage. But I don't really have an answer for that person. I don't know it's just an oddity of pro cycling, I guess, that outcomes get fixed behind the scenes and then they still take money on it. And if you. Yeah, if you know that that's a huge advantage. My advice would be try to figure that out before the event happens.
- [17:27]
B
Yeah, yeah, yeah. And another thing, Spencer, I wanted to get your opinion on, you know, the sprint itself. Right. So we have at some point Alpecin, we already knew they had this, had the strongest lead out here. And so they had. I don't know who it was, but anyway, the last guy was Edward Plunkart to lead out Jasper Phillips. And it looked like, you know, it was. It was basically a walk in the park. Three guys from Alpecin Philipson in third position, then gets in second position. And something went wrong, in my opinion. And also listening to the interview of Jasper, I mean, he was first of all, he was quite upfront saying that, you know, he doesn't have the super legs that he should have to win these sprints. But, you know, he already won a stage today. He's second. So his legs are not that bad. But it seemed to me like there was a miscommunication. Edward Blancard was leading it out on the left side of the road, but he went to the left with Philipson on the left. Left side of his wheel.
- [18:38]
A
Yeah.
- [18:39]
B
And on top of that, the road was bending a little bit. So, you know, this Phillipson said that he was trying to shout at Blancaard, but, you know, there was. It was so noisy with the people that Blancard. I mean. And it's true. I mean, especially 100, 150 meters to go. There's. You hear nothing. Right. It's so loud that you hear nothing. So how did you see it go wrong for. For opposite?
- [19:09]
A
Yeah, well, we should also say. We looked at it on Google Maps yesterday and I thought that is kind of a weird road that they're finishing on. And if you looked at the way the berries were set up, they're going all over the place. Even in the final straightaway, like drifting left, right. And I thought Ben Turner got a peek out I. Because he was sitting a little further out of the. The pace line, the slipstream. And I think he could see it. It bending a bit. And it's almost like he followed Alpecin. They're on the left side of the barriers and it starts to like go right. And Ben Turner just jumps before.
- [19:39]
B
Yeah.
- [19:40]
A
Anyone else does. And he jumps like right into open space. And as you said, Philipson's almost pinned against the barrier by his own lead out rider. And it's like in that moment, like especially on a slight uphill, like if Ben Turner gets a gap, like you're not going to close that gap on him. So I do, I do kind of wonder. The narrative right now is, well Phillipson, he's just not fit. That's why he's losing. This was like, well, he's really only had one flat sprint and he won it. And then he gets jumped today by Ben Turner. Like a very astute heads up Ben Turner and even a very fit Phillipson is going to have a hard time correcting that mistake if he, he's essentially pinned into the barrier by his own rider. Like if Planar pulls out right then it kind of pushes Turner so he doesn't have as good of a straight line and then Phillipson can sprint. But yeah, well, I think some of it comes down to the weirdness of the finish.
- [20:29]
B
What's that?
- [20:30]
A
Some of it comes down to just the weird. Like who is anticipating the barriers just to be going left, right. Like they're just going.
- [20:37]
B
Well, you know, they know, I mean the writers know, they have all the information. They have, you know, they see it on, on Velo viewer. Plus they have people scouting and you know, they have people up, up front. So whatever is not visible on, on Velo viewer. Of course it always looks different when the race has the setup and you know, the, the barriers and the finishing arch and stuff like that. But they know, they know. What's that?
- [21:07]
A
Like when do those get set up? Like morning of.
- [21:09]
B
Yeah, the morning off. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, the morning off. Yeah. But no, I mean it's, it would be. I mean, of course it's easy to say right when we're sitting here behind our screen. What Blancard should have done is, is just stay in them, you know that there was room on both sides, you know, and then, then basically Philipson can decide right, whether he goes left or right. If, if the lead out is sprinting on the left side of the barriers and, and keeping it close. There's only, there's only one way to go for Philipson. It's to the right side. You could say, well, who made the mistake? Is it the lead out guy? Is it Philipson who was on the wrong side of the wheel? You know? Yeah, it's. We won't know. But I think bottom line is that Turner is on great form and that Philipson is good but not super.
- [22:08]
A
Yeah, well, Planker would probably say he was on the wrong side of the wheel and there was wide open space he should have sprinted into. Just like Ben Turner. I would just guess that's what would say. Maybe Philipson has a different read on it, but I guess that's something, as you say.
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B
I mean, Philipson was.
- [22:26]
A
Philipson was.
- [22:27]
B
I mean, Philipson said, you know, that was his explanation, but it was not like he was pissed off or angry with his teammate. You know, I mean, these things do happen, right? I mean, it's so fast. It's. Everything is so, you know, in a split second that there's, you know, communication doesn't get anywhere. You can only. There's. There's nothing you can do. I mean, that's, that's why sprints are always so unpredictable. You know, you, you can say, well, Appelson, Phoenix or Alpine de Kooning, they have the strongest leadout train. Philipson is the strongest sprinter. How can this go wrong? And it will almost always go wrong. Right?
- [23:05]
A
Yeah. I mean, you have to come up with a plan before you're in the final hundred years too, because as you say, like, if you stand on the side of these roads, it's. You can't hear anything. There's no way they could hear each other. Just another quick note before we go on. Not Quinn Simmons. Sean Quinn was in the breakaway today. American on ef. We were talking, it just reminded me, we were talking yesterday about Derek G. Potentially leaving to go to ineos. And I remembered this morning, I was like, I ran into Sean Quinn in 2020, I think it was 2024. He was doing his pre Tour training camp in Boulder, like by himself. Which I was thinking, well, if you're on INEOS or you're on Visma, you're on uae. You're probably not setting up your own pre Tour altitude camp and then crashing on a friend's couch. So just to give people an illustration of maybe some of the infrastructure differences behind the scenes at these teams.
- [23:59]
B
Yeah, yeah. No, I mean that, that may be one of the reasons also why Derek G. Is considering, you know, leaving. Although I, I do think that Israel Premier Tech, they, they do invest quite a bit in training camps and stuff. But anyway, we won't know. We won't know. And I think we spent enough time on it yesterday. We will now wait to see what, how it, how it pans out. Right. Before we talk about tomorrow's stage, Spencer, I. I have a question from a good friend of mine from the UAE who is, you know, watching, watching the race. A big cycling fan, good friend of mine and he asked if we could, you know, ask this question on the podcast and his question is, you know, do you. I mean, obviously Visma is, is performing really well. UAE came with a strong team, but we haven't seen any results of them yet. And he's, he's asking himself the question if they are saving themselves for the tougher stages later on.
- [25:05]
A
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- [27:25]
B
Probably, I think, I think the same way as you say now. I think there's not much to gain. They're not losing anything. I mean, except, you know, those 10 seconds from the stage of Jonas. But they're not losing anything and they're just biding their time. They have a strong team. You know, they, they're, they're looking at it the first week. Okay. I mean, obviously tomorrow they have to go full gas because it's the team time trial and that's real time. Right. But other than that, I'm not overly worried about UAE not being, I mean, it's not that they're not visible, they're not up there in the top rankings for the moment in the stage wins. But yeah, I mean, I can, I can assure my friends from Dubai that they are biding their time and they're going to come to the forefront when it really matters.
- [28:14]
A
Well, do you know who they remind me of actually is Jonas Van der garde at the 2020-2023 Tour de France. Like, his strategy was always sit back like, let, like a fish on the line, like, let Pagacha run wild through the first 10 stages and I'm going to pull him back in the second half. So it's very strange to see this flips now, like. Yeah, quite know what to make of it.
- [28:37]
B
Well, I think, you know, as we said before, I think Jonas has great legs. He just wants, you know, the stage win was important for the, the morale, you know, but he'll start riding also conservatively now because, I mean, we haven't seen nothing in this world. I mean, if you look at those stages and those mountaintop finishes, there are some, some of them, some of them we know, you know, like Anglidu and, and Bola del Mundo and. But there's some others that, you know, are not famous but are unbelievably hard. And so, yeah, I mean, that's, I'm not worried about UAE not, not having the top results right now.
- [29:17]
A
Yeah, I, I had the, the same, I had a moment of panic after stage two and then I've been thinking they've actually. Because they're not participating in these destructive efforts. That does kind of concern me with what we have left. But let's take a quick ad break and then we will preview stage five. Everybody. This episode is brought to you by Fabric by Gerber Life. Running a household can be a lot, especially with kids. That is why having a family plan in place can help wrangle the chaos. Especially if you want to protect your family's financial future in case something unexpected happens to you. And this is where Fabric can help. Fab Fabric by Gerver Life is a term life insurance you can get done today. It's made for busy parents like myself. And it's all online on your own schedule, right from your couch. You could be covered in under 10 minutes with no, no health exam required. And if you've got kids. I know, I know. I think about this all the time. I worry what would my family do if I, let's say, expired earlier than I expected. And if you're young and healthy, youngish, healthy ish like myself, it's time to lock in those lows, low rates Right now. Even if you have life insurance through your employer, it may not offer enough protection for your family and it may not follow you if you leave your job. I know this is something I ran into where I thought I was covered. I checked the life insurance through my employer. It was not nearly enough. And that's why I shopped around for term life insurance policy. And that's why Fabric has partnered with Gerber Life, trusted by millions of families like yours for over 50 years. There's no risk. There's a 30 day money back guarantee and you can cancel at any time. They have over 19005 star reviews on Trustpilot with a rating of excellent. And they also have free digital wills, tools to invest in your kids future and more. All right, from your phone, just not, not even on this ad. Make sure you get your will in order. That's something that's very easy to put off. So just, just get the term life insurance while you're doing the will. Join thousands of parents who trust Fabric to help protect their family. Apply today in just minutes at meet fabric.com/themove. That's meet like m e e t fabric.com the move m e t fabric.com the move. Policies issued by Western Southern Life Insurance Company not available in certain states. Prices subject to underwriting and health questions. All right, back to the show. So Johan, tomorrow, stage five. It's a short one. It's only. How many kilometers is it? It is only 24. I want to say 24 kilometers and so it's flat like with the whole team, they're going to fly through it. It's a team time trial. You don't know what that is. The whole team starts. They take the time from the fourth place rider. So the first four that finish, that's the time for everyone in that group of four. If you finish behind the four, you're not on that time. So your GC contender has to be in there. I will list off the favorites and then we will predict who's going to win. The favorite is team Visma Lisa bike plus 150 actually lower odds than I thought. You know, not unox UAE team Emirates plus 200 Ineos Grenadiers plus 250 and then it falls off. Little track plus 1800 group Palma FDJ plus 2200 it goes on and on. But Johan, who do you think is going to win this team time trial?
- [32:36]
B
Yeah, I think the, the books have it right. It's, it's between those three teams. It's, it's Visma and UAE and Ineos. They're the strongest teams quality wise. They have experience with, with those kind of exercises. I'm going to take Visma as my favorite. They have a super strong team. You know, they have Jonas, they have Company Arts, they have Jorgensen, they have Von Barla. Is there no Von Barla? I mean they have, they have such strong riders. They, they are one rider down already. So you know, Axel Zingle has abandoned but they still have seven riders. Yeah, I mean that could be a bit of a disadvantage. Not so much actually. Seven or eight. It doesn't really, I mean it's, it's, it's every, every time there's a rotation there's an extra 15, 20 seconds. You could recover more, but I don't think that's going to matter that much. We're not going to see big differences. We're not going to see big time differences between those three teams. But I'm going to pick this Malisa bike doing the stage tomorrow.
- [33:51]
A
Yeah, it's not a bad pick, especially since I believe there's only been one team time trial in a World Tour race this year. Perry, Nice. Stage three. They won it over Jayco, Red Bull Little. It's a little different because the time was taken from just the first rider. So slightly different rules. But UAE was further back, 42 seconds back the year before at Parry. UAE wins the team time trial. So I think we're correct to think it's between these two teams. They're very strong, they have great time Trialists. And the big advantage of both Visma and UAE is their GC riders are also top time trialist so they don't have to nurse them along or wait for them. And like with uae, you have Almeida Ayuso, both really good time trialists and then you only need two other riders with them. Everyone else can be burned through on course whereas like Ineos can't do that because I mean Bernal's a good time trial, so he's not well made it good. He's not Jonas Vinegar. Good. I'm gonna pick UAE little bit better price plus 200. And I, I mean I think if you spread your money, you could actually bet on both of them and make a profit no matter who wins.
- [34:56]
B
And then, and then Ineos comes and wins the team.
- [34:59]
A
Yeah, that's exactly what happened is anyhow said with it. But I'm gonna go UAE just because they have the full suite of riders. I think. Yeah, it's gonna be, it's gonna be close. I think that could make the difference.
- [35:11]
B
Yeah. Okay. Yeah, I, I, I agree.
- [35:14]
A
Yeah.
- [35:15]
B
Well.
- [35:15]
A
And I mean what type of time gaps do you think we're gonna see here? 24k with the team time trial, they're gonna go about 60 kilometers an hour. Right.
- [35:25]
B
Between 15 and 30 seconds between the top teams, I think.
- [35:31]
A
Yeah. Which is funny to think that the gap on this time trial could be similar to the gap on the stage two uphill finishes between first and fourth place.
- [35:40]
B
Yeah.
- [35:41]
A
But yeah, I do think it would hurts is, you know, if we look at actually good do will probably be in decent shape. Right. Because he has Stefan Kuhn on his FDJ team. Very good time trials. But you look at like Tom Pidcock on Q36.5 like they, they could take a bit of a beating on this one. I feel.
- [36:02]
B
They will. They will.
- [36:04]
A
Yeah. And then, you know, even Ben o' Connor on Jayco. I'm curious to see how they perform.
- [36:09]
B
Yeah, Jayco usually does well in deep time trials. You know, I mean they, they, they have a good track record so far.
- [36:17]
A
Well, earlier this year they were second in that parry. Nice one. So, yeah, I mean they do. Yeah, I guess you're right. They always tend to. I guess that was their calling card for a long time. Yeah, they were a team time traveling team. Well, anything else Johan, you want to share on the stage?
- [36:34]
B
No, nothing. Nothing else I can think of.
- [36:36]
A
Spencer, we're in Spain. I guess we should say first stage in Spain next.
- [36:40]
B
Tomorrow we're in Spain and we will leave Spain pretty soon again to Andorra. I know, but yeah, I mean, I think you can consider Andorra part of Spain. I mean, I always consider it. You know, it's, it's, it's independent but it's, it's part of Spain, you know.
- [36:56]
A
It'S your cell phone coverage may disagree.
- [37:00]
B
That's true. Yeah. If you ever go, you know. No, and another thing, if you ever go to Andorra with roaming from another country, please turn it off because they kill you. They're going to kill you on, on, on, on, you know, on the rates.
- [37:17]
A
Someone has a yacht in Monaco based on that specific business. Just fools going into Andorra and racking up roaming fees. But we will take off and we'll be back tomorrow to break down the team time trial and then predict stage seven which is a true summit finish in Hondura.
- [37:34]
B
Yeah.
- [37:36]
A
All right, thanks, Johan.
- [37:37]
B
Thanks, bye.