Tour de France Stage 12 Preview | OŪTCOMES

Summary

Summary of THEMOVE Podcast Episode: "Tour de France Stage 12 Preview | OŪTCOMES"

Release Date: July 16, 2025

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Introduction

In the latest episode of THEMOVE, host Lance Armstrong delves into the anticipation surrounding Stage 12 of the Tour de France, marking the first significant mountain stage to Otakom. Joined by guest Johan Berniel, a seasoned cycling analyst currently on-site in Toulouse, the duo explores the intricacies of the stage, evaluates the contenders, and offers strategic betting insights for enthusiasts.

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Stage 12 Overview

Stage Details:

• Start and Finish: The stage begins with flat terrain before transitioning into rolling landscapes in the first half.
• Climbs: Two categorized climbs early on, followed by one Category 1 and an Hors Category (HC) climb at Otakom, spanning 13 kilometers with an average gradient of 8%.
• Total Distance: 180 kilometers.

This diverse route presents a complex challenge, blending initial flat sections with demanding ascents that will test the riders' endurance and climbing prowess.

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Race Predictions and Strategy

Spencer Martin and Johan Berniel engage in a comprehensive analysis of potential race dynamics. They discuss whether the stage will culminate in a breakaway victory or a general classification (GC) showdown.

Key Insights:

• Flat First Half: The initial flat sections may complicate predictions, as teams might employ different strategies to either set up a breakaway or conserve energy for the climbs.
• Breakaway Potential: A significant breakaway is anticipated, possibly comprising strong time-trialists and climbers capable of maintaining a lead over extended distances.

Notable Quote:

Johan Berniel [03:08]: "There are two scenarios. Either the GC guys fight it out... or a breakaway will form, probably a big breakaway with some really good riders."

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Favorites Analysis

Tadej Pogacar (+100 DW Money):

• Current Form: Despite an unfortunate crash earlier in the race, Pogacar remains the favorite. His resilience and climbing ability make him a strong contender.
• Strategic Advantage: Pogacar's team, known for their cohesion, can support him effectively through the stage's challenging climbs.

Jonas Vingegaard (+300):

• As Pogacar's main rival, Vingegaard poses a significant threat. Their ongoing rivalry adds intensity to the GC battle.

Other Contenders:

• Mateusz Gammosa (+1600)
• Remco Evenepoel (+2400)
• Timon Arenas (+2400)
• Lenny Martinez (+3600)
• Santiago Butrago (+4000)
• Simon Yates (+4000)
• Michael Storr (+4000)

These riders, while less favored, have the potential to disrupt the expected outcome, especially if race dynamics shift unexpectedly.

Notable Quote:

Spencer Martin [05:06]: "He's gotta be thinking like, enough is enough... he can end this race as soon as possible."

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Breakaways vs. GC Battle

The discussion pivots to the strategic elements that could influence the stage's outcome:

• GC Fight: For Pogacar and Vingegaard to contest the GC, their teams must maintain control over the peloton, preventing breakaways from gaining significant time.
• Breakaway Success: A breakaway with capable climbers could thrive, especially on the final HC climb, potentially securing a stage win away from the GC contenders.

Impact of the Crash:

• Pogacar's crash introduces uncertainty. While still the favorite, its implications on his performance remain a topic of debate.

Notable Quote:

Johan Berniel [05:56]: "Once they're the two of them, what they're going to do is they're going to be just a stalemate and let everybody come back."

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Betting Picks and Strategies

Armstrong and Berniel transition into betting strategies, analyzing odds and recommending potential wagers based on their predictions.

Favorite Picks:

• Pogacar (+100): Considered a safe bet given his form and team support.
• Timon Arenas (+2400): Selected as a wild card due to his strong performance on similar terrains.

Underdog Insights:

• Ben O'Connor (-172) vs. Matthias Skelmosa (+126): O'Connor is favored despite Skelmosa's potential, attributed to Skelmosa's uncertain form.
• Florian Lipowitz (-160) vs. Mateo Jorgensen (+118): Lipowitz is recommended based on current performance metrics.
• Oscar Only (-186) vs. Tobias Holland Johansson (+138): Oscar Only emerges as the favored pick.

Notable Quote:

Spencer Martin [08:13]: "He's strong enough to get into the move on the flats... I'm going to go with Arenas."

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Head to Heads for Betting

The hosts delve into specific head-to-head betting scenarios, evaluating the likelihood of one rider outperforming another.

Key Matchups:

1. Pogacar (-220) vs. Vingegaard (+162): A tightly contested matchup reflecting both riders' abilities.
2. Remco Evenepoel (-330) vs. Primoz Roglic (+220): Despite recent setbacks, Evenepoel remains a strong contender against Roglic.
3. Ben O'Connor (-172) vs. Matthias Skelmosa (+126): Favoring O'Connor due to current form.
4. Florian Lipowitz (-160) vs. Mateo Jorgensen (+118): Lipowitz is the recommended choice.
5. Oscar Only (-186) vs. Tobias Holland Johansson (+138): Oscar Only is preferred based on performance consistency.

Strategy Recommendations:

• Favor against-the-odds picks like Timon Arenas for higher returns.
• Leverage strong favorites with lower risk for consistent gains.

Notable Quote:

Spencer Martin [11:30]: "This is a really tough one...it's like betting if Vingegaard rolls over the line in front of Picachar?"

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Conclusion

The episode wraps up with a summary of the key predictions and an optimistic outlook for the upcoming stage. Armstrong emphasizes the excitement surrounding Stage 12 and encourages listeners to stay engaged with real-time updates.

Final Thoughts:

• Pogacar remains the top pick, contingent on his post-crash recovery.
• Strategic Breakaways and GC Battles will define the stage's outcome.
• Betting enthusiasts are provided with detailed insights to inform their wagering decisions.

Notable Quote:

Spencer Martin [14:46]: "We need to get back to winning some of these things."

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Featured Guests

• Johan Berniel: Cycling analyst providing on-site insights from Toulouse, enhancing the depth of the race analysis with firsthand observations.

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Additional Resources

Listeners are encouraged to engage further through THEMOVE's audio-video experience, offering in-depth coverage and exclusive content that transforms fans into insiders.

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This comprehensive summary captures the essence of the THEMOVE podcast episode, offering a detailed exploration of Tour de France Stage 12's dynamics, predictions, and betting strategies. Whether you're a seasoned cycling enthusiast or a casual fan, Armstrong and Berniel's insightful conversation provides valuable perspectives on one of cycling's most iconic races.

Transcript

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[Ryan Seacrest]

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[Spencer Martin]

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[Johan Berniel]

But I think it's obvious Spencer, the heavy favorite is Pullachar. If it's the big guys fighting it out amongst each other, I just don't see how Palacha doesn't win this. Except if of course he has unforeseen complaints of his unfortunate crash today. But I'm still going to go palace plus 100 DW money. I think it's worth it.

[Spencer Martin]

Hi, I'm Spencer Martin along with Johan Berniel and this is Outcomes. Outcomes is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this podcast should be considered financial advice. Please gamble responsibly and if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, seek help from a professional resource host and guests may have financial interests in the bets discussed. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Everybody. Welcome back to Outcomes. I'm Spencer Martin. I'm here with Johan Berniel. We're predicting stage 12 of the Tour de France, the first real mountain stage to Otakom. There are two, I guess four categorized climbs, two major climbs, one cat one and then the HC climb. Finish at Oticom, 13k long at 8% average. Pretty tough climb. 180k stage in total starts off flat for the first, rolling to flat for the first half. So that will actually complicate how we predict this. I'll list off the favorites and then we'll pick who's going to win. But before I do that, remember if you want to bet, go to our partner NextBets. That's nxtbets.com bet outcomes. They have where you can bet legally in the place where you live as well as the best signup bonuses. So for example, in Colorado, if I go set up an account on FanDuel and I bet $5, I get $150 free dollars on top of that. So it's a great deal. Hard to pass up. Make sure you check it out. Nxtbets.com betoutcomes the favorite for the stage. These, these are very steep odds. Tadipogachar plus 100. That means he has a 50 chance of winning according to the betting market. Jonas Vinegar plus 300. Mateusz Galmosa plus 1600. Remco Evanopole plus 2400. Tyman Aren's been plus 2400. Lenny Martinez plus 3600. Santiago Butrago plus 4000. Simon Yates plus 4000. Michael Storr plus 4000 goes on and on and on. We'll call him out when we need to. And remember, if a rider is plus 100, that means if you bet $100, you get 100 in profit. So you return 200 totals total. But Johan, how do you think this is going to play out? Breakaway or gc? And who do you think is going to win?

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, Spencer. First of all, I want to acknowledge for our listeners and our viewers, I am doing this from my cell phone because I'm in Toulouse. I'm actually at the Tour de France right now. And yeah, I got reminded of the quality of the wi fi. It's this part of France, so I have to do it from my phone. So I hope the quality is still acceptable. But I think there's two scenarios. You know, it's either either the GC guys fight it out. In order for that to happen, the teams of these guys need to keep it together for more than 120 kilometers. And those 120 kilometers are not necessarily the hardest ones. So that means that a breakaway will form, probably a big breakaway with probably also some really good riders. Like time trial is heavier guys who can get far away in the first 120k. So anyways, you know, it's two hard climbs called the Shalore is quite hard about I think 9km at almost 8% and then 12km at 9 and then Otakama is super, super hard. That's in the horse horse category climb. So whoever is in the break needs to have good claim climbing legs to stay in front of. But I think it's, I think it's obvious, Spencer, the, the heavy favorite is Pogachar. If it's, if it's the big guys fighting it out amongst each other, I just don't see how Pugachar doesn't win this, except if, of course, he has unforeseen complaints of his unfortunate crash today. But I'm still going to go Pugach plus 100 DW money. I think it's, it's worth it.

[Spencer Martin]

I agree. I'm also picking Pagachar. The crash. What would he have been without the crash? That's a question. Would he been like negative 400 to win this stage? I frankly think it's a question, though. Is he winning by 20 seconds or a minute or two minutes? Like, I, I think they've been waiting for this. I think he's ready. He got embarrassed by Vinegard and wout van Art the last time he was on otacom. He's going to be motivated. I mean, to me it's. He's gotta be thinking like, enough is enough. Like we. It's just been miserable racing. He's got Visma attacking him. He's crashing because guys are swiping in front of his wheel like, he's just got to get a lead. Like, let's just end this race as soon as possible. He can end it tomorrow and Friday if he does well in the time trial. I think he's going to try to do that. My only concern. So I'm picking bogachar at plus 100.

[Johan Berniel]

I think, however, Spencer, I mean, especially now looking at the circumstances of what happened today with the crash, I think Bogacha wins, but with a small margin because ultimately it's. It's Jonas Linger who needs to try to drop Pogachar.

[Spencer Martin]

That's a good point, Dak.

[Johan Berniel]

Once they're the two of them, what they're going to do, they're going to be just a stalemate and let everybody come back. So some, I mean, they're going to have to relay each other at 80%. If, I mean, if, if, if they get ahead with the two of them, which, I mean independently, whether it's a breakaway or not, they will race right amongst each other. And so, so, yeah, I mean, I, I think if Pugacha wins, considering what happened today, he's probably not going to win with a big margin. He doesn't have to.

[Spencer Martin]

No, actually, if Picacho can't drop Vindegaard, it gets really interesting really fast because in theory, he doesn't have to pace at all because he's already winning. Assuming they drop Ben Healy, Vinegar's not ahead of Remcovenable. Like at some point he has to overtake Remco. So will he have the. Probably won't pull, will he? Will he feel like he should? And then Johan, if they stall out on this thing and they finish in a group, the biggest winner of the day is Primus Roglich. Because then he's going into this uphill time trial like no one's taking advantage of his weakness at all. Like, he could be soaring back. As George predicted. I do think Pagatra wins. My concern, though, is this is a lot like a pop quiz. Who won the Finestra stage in the Gir d'? Italia? It wasn't Simon Yates, like you remember, like everybody remembers, because Chris Harper was up the road and he got a big gap in a similar type of terrain to this. I am concerned a move's going to go and build up just such a big gap that they can't pull it back in. In theory, Visma will have to make the race really hard on that first climb, because if they don't, nothing they've done up to this point makes any sense. So we have to assume they're going to blow the race up.

[Johan Berniel]

On the cold solo makes it hard on the solor. It's also a lot more difficult for a breakaway to stay away because, yeah, on Hotakam you can. I mean, if you've been out there for. For the whole day, you can lose five minutes, you know?

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, yeah. Yes. You'd have to have a gap of like seven minutes of the base. If the first climb, first big climb is race hard, it's hard to imagine that happening. If someone does, they're going to have to be a very good climber. I think it's not even worth betting on lesser or I guess like lesser candidates in the GC group in the top 10, because how do they win? Like, if Pagacho doesn't win, Vindegaard's going to win. So I'm going to go Timon Ahrensman from the breakaway for my wild card. He is priced at plus 2400 on FanDuel and I'm picking him because he's strong enough to get into the move on the flats, which is going to be hard, and then survive all the way all day out there on the flats and then climb well enough to stay away. There's not many people actually, that. That fit that bill. And I'm going to go with Ahrensman because in theory, he's. He is really strong. We saw. He is strong. He got second the other day to Simon Yates. He's one of the. I think one of the only riders with a Mixture of skills that can feasibly stay away.

[Johan Berniel]

Yep. Yeah, he, he was, he was good the other day, you know, he was, he was, he came back almost to Simon Yates. That was really impressive. Actually, since you've picked him, I'm going to pick a similar rider, actually a writer who was with Adams Mann and at some point with Simon Yates, Ben o' Connor for the stage win from a breakaway. He's now already 11 minutes 50 in the behind NGC. So not a threat anymore. And so I. This is a guy that has the power to go in a breakaway on flats and still have the climbing skills to maintain. We've seen it already many times. You know that, that panel. Connor pulls something off like this. After disappointing ngc, he bounces back and it gets a stage when I think tomorrow could be a good day for him.

[Spencer Martin]

He actually won a really similar stage to this. Remember stage nine of the 2021 Tour.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

And he's just so good at. He can get in these breakaways and then he really shines when he's away like that. He has so much power. It seems like that's not always there when he's in the group, when he's in a breakaway like we saw last year at the Vuelta. The guy can just, just jam. But let's take a quick break and then we will go through your head to heads for the day.

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[Spencer Martin]

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[Spencer Martin]

Okay, Johan, we're back. Our head to heads for stage 12. If you're not familiar it is you get a price and then if so and so Finishes ahead of so and so. It pays out at that price. The first one, this is on Fanduel in the US Pagachar minus 220 versus Jonas Vinegaard plus 162. This is actually a really tough one.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah. Wow. Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

And this is, this is kind of the truest of it because. Because of a breakaway stays away. This is like when this break that. When this bet would pay off. And they probably will sprint, they probably will contest the line here even if a break is away. So you're not just like betting if Vindergaard rolls over the line in front of Picacher?

[Johan Berniel]

I think they're going to keep trying to the end to drop each other.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah. Next 1. Rimcoven A poll minus 330 versus Primos Roglic plus 220. I'm surprised by this line, to be honest with you.

[Johan Berniel]

I think because of the, because of the odds, we kind of have to go Primos.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah. It's funny because Rimka is not considered like, you know, the Pyrenees is where he lost. He couldn't defend his welter title. If you remember, where he got was that Tour stage.

[Johan Berniel]

Okay. But yeah, still, I mean, it's, it's the Tour. It's different. It's a different race. But I think it's, it's. It's been a long time since Primos hasn't crashed in the Tour. You know, he's silently and slowly getting more to the front. Tomorrow is a good stage for Primos. I'm going to go for Primos over Remco.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, I think he. I actually have been surprised at how good he looks and now he has not crashed. When's the last time we saw that? So Ben O' Connor minus 172 versus Matthias Skelmosa plus 126 O'.

[Johan Berniel]

Clock.

[Spencer Martin]

All right. Yeah. Something's not quite right with Skelmosa.

[Johan Berniel]

He must be sick or something. I don't know.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah. Florian Lipowitz minus 160 versus Mateo Jorgensen plus 118.

[Johan Berniel]

How much is liquids?

[Spencer Martin]

Minus 160.

[Johan Berniel]

Huh.

[Spencer Martin]

So you bet 160 to win 100.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah. Yeah. Let's go for liquids.

[Spencer Martin]

They went head. Head to head at the doan, right?

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah. Yeah. But Jurgensen was not. Jorgensen was not in. He was disappointing form in Dolphin. A lot different shape now. A lot better.

[Spencer Martin]

And then this one is kind of an interesting one. Oscar only. Minus 186 versus Tobias Holland Johansson plus 138.

[Johan Berniel]

Oscar only.

[Spencer Martin]

All right. All right. Well, best of luck. At at the stage tomorrow. Johan. We'll be excited be looking for you on the side of the road.

[Johan Berniel]

I'm going to go to the start to, you know, greet a few ex colleagues, ex directors and then I will be on the call du solo.

[Spencer Martin]

Exciting.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

Well let's hope taday for got your wins and if not Ben o' Connor or time in Aram soon because we are we we've been on a cold streak. We got to get back to winning some of these things.

[Johan Berniel]

Okay, Spencer, thanks.

[Spencer Martin]

All right.

[Johan Berniel]

Have a good evening.

[Spencer Martin]

Bye.

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