Tour de France Stage 13 Preview | OŪTCOMES

Summary

Podcast Summary: THEMOVE – Tour de France Stage 13 Preview | OUTCOMES
Release Date: July 17, 2025
Host: Lance Armstrong

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Introduction

In the episode titled "Tour de France Stage 13 Preview | OUTCOMES", hosted by Spencer Martin and Johan Berniel, the discussion centers around the upcoming Stage 13 of the Tour de France—a unique 11-kilometer mountain time trial. The hosts delve into predictions, rider performances, equipment choices, and strategic insights, providing listeners with an in-depth analysis of what to expect in this challenging stage.

Overview of Stage 13

Spencer Martin introduces the stage as an "11 kilometer time trial up a mountain pass, which is unusual" [01:00]. This particular stage is characterized by its steep gradients and demanding terrain, making it a critical point in the race where rider endurance and strategy play pivotal roles.

Favorite Predictions

The primary focus of the discussion is on predicting the stage winner. Spencer Martin lists the favorites with their respective betting odds:

• Tade Pogachar: –560
• Jonas Vinkegaard: +500
• Florian Lipowitz: +2200
• Remco Evanopole: +2200
• Primos Roglic: +8000
• Felix G: +10,000

Johan Berniel concurs with Martin's assessment, stating, "there's nobody else in my opinion... I can't see anybody else winning than him" [02:48], referring to Tade Pogachar as the clear favorite for this stage.

Equipment Discussion

A significant portion of the conversation revolves around the choice between time trial bikes and normal bikes for this mountain time trial.

Johan Berniel mentions, "even at minus 560... at 10.9 kilometers all uphill" [02:48], highlighting Pogachar's dominance. The hosts debate the effectiveness of aerodynamics versus weight in such steep climbs.

Spencer Martin raises a pertinent question about bike choice: "are you really faster on a time trial bike?" [05:49]. Johan Berniel responds with insights from observing the race, noting that aero bikes, despite being slightly heavier, offer speed advantages at consistent high velocities: "anything that gets close to between 18 and 20 kilometers per hour, it's noticeable already" [06:22].

Analysis of Riders

The hosts analyze the performances and potential of key riders:

• Tade Pogachar: Seen as the dominant force, Pogachar's previous performance on the same climb gives him a substantial edge.

• Jonas Vinkegaard: Despite showing promise, Johan Berniel points out the psychological and physical challenges he faced, particularly after being "knocked out" during the previous stage [04:00].

• Florian Lipowitz: Emerging as a strong contender, Spencer Martin and Johan Berniel discuss his consistent performance, especially his ability to maintain speed on steep climbs. Martin notes, "He lost 0 seconds in the last 3k to Pogacha. That's pretty good." [09:48]

• Remco Evanopole: Highlighted as a versatile rider, Johan Berniel believes Remco can secure a podium spot based on his performance despite setbacks during the race [10:42].

Betting Insights

The episode provides listeners with strategic betting advice. Spencer Martin recommends a balanced approach:

• Favorites: Place $100 on the favorite.
• Wild Cards: Place $20 on underdogs or less favored riders.

Martin emphasizes the predictability of the race, suggesting that favorites like Pogachar are likely to secure victories, while wild cards may not perform as expected. He advises against betting on uncertain outcomes, especially with riders whose odds are exorbitantly high without guaranteed performance [08:56].

Strategic Considerations

The hosts discuss the strategic elements that could influence the stage outcome:

• Bike Selection: The choice between aerodynamic time trial bikes and lighter normal bikes could sway the results, especially in the final steep kilometers [06:22].

• Rider Form and Morale: Riders recovering from setbacks or those in good psychological form may perform better under pressure [04:28].

• Course Topography: The steep gradients and specific sections like the "incredibly steep altiport" pose significant challenges that favor well-prepared and strategically adept riders [04:50].

Conclusion

The episode concludes with a consensus that Tade Pogachar is the frontrunner for Stage 13, backed by both statistical odds and recent performances. Spencer Martin and Johan Berniel agree that while surprises are always possible in cycling, the data and observations strongly favor Pogachar's victory. They also highlight Florian Lipowitz and Remco Evanopole as potential podium finishers, contingent on their adaptability and strategic choices during the race.

Listeners are left with a comprehensive understanding of the factors at play in Stage 13, equipping them with insights for both enjoyment and informed betting.

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Notable Quotes:

• "After what we saw today... I can't see anybody else winning than him." – Johan Berniel [02:48]

• "Are you really faster on a time trial bike?" – Spencer Martin [05:49]

• "He lost 0 seconds in the last 3k to Pogacha. That's pretty good." – Spencer Martin [09:48]

• "Remco has just gotten dropped. I thought he was going to lose 10 minutes at least." – Johan Berniel [10:42]

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This detailed summary encapsulates the key discussions, insights, and conclusions from the Tour de France Stage 13 Preview | OUTCOMES episode, providing a comprehensive overview for those who haven't tuned in.

Transcript

[Amazon Voice]

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[Ryan Seacrest]

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[Spencer Martin]

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[Johan Berniel]

Very straightforward. Tadeh Pogachar so yeah, he's my pick. There's nobody else in my opinion. After what we saw today. Spencer and a mountain time trial. I think the books are right. You know, even at minus 560. Yeah, I can't see anybody else winning than him.

[Spencer Martin]

Hi, I'm Spencer Martin along with Johan Berniel and this is Outcomes. Outcomes is for informational entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this podcast should be considered financial advice. Please gamble responsibly and if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, seek help from a professional resource. Hosts and guests may have financial interest in the bets discussed. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Everybody. Welcome back to Outcomes. I'm Spencer Martin. I'm here with Johan Berniel. We are predicting stage 13 of the Tour de France. It's an 11 kilometer time trial up a mountain pass, which is unusual. I'll list off the favorites and then we'll get Johan and I's take on who's going to win the stage. Before I do that, if you are interested in sports betting, remember or betting on this race that we're talking about, remember we have a partnership with NextBets and to check that out, you check that out, you go to nxtbets.com betoutcomes and they'll show you the available books where you live, the best signup bonuses. For example, if you live in Colorado and you go to FanDuel and you open an account and you bet $5, you get $150 free dollars. So I might recommend betting that $150 on whoever we pick today because it is going to be one of the most predictable stages of the Tour. The favorite, the market reflects that. The favorite is Tadepogacha. This is the best price I could find by the way. Minus 560. I've never seen that for a stage at a stage race, I believe. Jonas Fender second at plus 500. Florian Lipowitz plus 2200. Remco Evanopole plus 2200. Primos Roglic plus 8000. Felix G, plus 10,000. I don't think we need to keep going. Johan, who do you think is going to win this thing?

[Johan Berniel]

Very straightforward. So yeah, he's my pick is nobody. There's nobody else in my opinion. After what we saw today, Spencer and, and a mountain time trial, I, I think the books are right. You know, even at minus 560. Yeah, I can't see anybody else winning than him. It's, it's, you know, at 10.9 kilometers all uphill, basically. All uphill. What could make him not win this stage, Spencer? Choice of wrong equipment maybe?

[Spencer Martin]

You know, I don't. I think you could write a prompt and win this thing.

[Johan Berniel]

Well, you know, I mean this, this, there's these talks about what they're going to do or some of this. There's some rumors about people going to ride a time trial bike. You know, I've heard Remco's riding his time trial bike. Jonas will probably ride his time trial bike because he was, you know, I mean, maybe after today he changes his mind, but. And then I heard a journalist ask the director of, of Tadepogachar, what are you going to write today, tomorrow? Normal bike or time trial bike? And the guy said we will start, we will decide tomorrow at the start. So.

[Spencer Martin]

I'm sure that's true. Yeah, they haven't thought about it yet.

[Johan Berniel]

So. No, I mean this Spencer, it's after today's demonstration, you know, even physically. Listen, even if physically Jonas is better tomorrow than. Than today, which is possible. I mean the mental blow he got today is like he got knocked out, you know. Yeah. You don't recover from that. In, you know, in, in one day.

[Spencer Martin]

He physically looked off too. I mean I, I also am picking Pagachar to break the suspense. Can you tell you're. You're in the Pyrenees right now. Can you tell us a little bit about the climb they do? The Paras sword. But then they take a detour like towards the top, at the top and they go up an incredibly steep altiport I guess, is what it's called. It's a. Almost vertical Runway.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, well, I mean it's, it's, it's so it's the Paris suit coming from Ludonville. And they don't go to the top of the parachute. Just a bit before the top, they take a right. It's a little bit more flattish. I mean, still uphill, but not so much. And then they have this last stretch of this, you know, mountain airport. And you know, for people who have been following cycling the last few years, this is exactly the same climb where Pugacha won with an unbelievable lead out of Brandon McNulty.

[Spencer Martin]

Yes.

[Johan Berniel]

So Brandon McNulty, Pogacha and, and Jonas is. This is the climb. So it's the Parasur, basically, with an extension of 2 and a half kilometers to the top of the, the airport. The last, the last one and a half kilometers, really. Very, very, very, very steep. So it's. What is it, Is it, is it 7 and a half or 8%?

[Spencer Martin]

So the last. But 5k or 8.1% like after they make the right turn. And so the last k is like 16% average on once they hit that Runway. It is so steep. Yeah, I mean, I, I can't quite wrap my head around this. I, maybe on the parasaur time trial bike would be faster. Lance was unconvinced by this in the podcast today, but man, the last 5k at 8%, are you really faster on a time trial bike?

[Johan Berniel]

Not in my opinion, no. I may be thinking, but then again, Spencer, listen, you know, I was at the start today, right, of today's stage, and I talked to the UAE director, Macin, because I saw all the bikes there exposed, you know, with the numbers on. So they were all the aero bikes. And he said, yeah, you know, they're not that much heavier, 300 grams heavier than the normal bikes. And it's been proven that they're faster even at lower speeds. I mean, anything that gets close to between 18 and 20 kilometers per hour, it's noticeable already. And so we're going to see those aero bikes more and more. Jonas Vinkegaard was riding his aero bike also today.

[Spencer Martin]

So you have to know you're going to be alone, which they did, because they probably had that attack planned at the bottom.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

So the Arrow bike.

[Johan Berniel]

So in, in that case, tomorrow, for example, I could see. I'm still. I mean, I mean, obviously they've tested it. They've, they've done that. They've done the test and Remco for example, I think Remco is probably the rider of the whole peloton who spends the most time on his time crawl bike. He may feel comfortable enough to use that bike if they can get the weight down. Obviously there's not going to be a disc wheel in the back, you know. No, no. I think it's going to be light profile wheels, but, but, but the lightest possible wheels. Right. And then. Yeah, I mean, it kind of makes sense if you think that the new data now say that whenever it's, you know, around 20 kilometers or know they're going to go fast, faster than 20 kilometers an hour on, on much of this time trial.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah.

[Johan Berniel]

So that could, but I'm still, I, I, I, I think, I think, I know, I think the normal bike.

[Spencer Martin]

Well, I don't think we're going to pick wild cards for the stageman because we just can in good conscience recommend anyone bet on any because today we saw an uphill time trial and we saw a domination from Pagachar. The interesting thing, though, I think is to then figure out, well, who someone has to finish second and third on the stage we saw today. Jonas Finnegaard, he might have gotten crushed by Pagatra, but he's still pretty good uphill. I think he probably finishes second. I'm not going to bet on him because his odds are 1 minus for the podium, minus 1100 15. So no, thank you.

[Johan Berniel]

Okay. Yeah, that makes no sense.

[Spencer Martin]

Is there another writer who you think is going to round out that podium on the stage?

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, well, you know, it's. If you look at the top three now, so it's, it's Pogachar and Jonas and Remco. Right. Top three. I've seen a guy today who's coming up and he's, you know, improving and he's, you know, in this upward trend now. Florian Lipowitz of Red Bull Bora. I'm going to pick him to be on the podium tomorrow. It's 110. If you analyze his last climb, I think he did the best of everybody else. The last 3 1/2 kilometers. Hardly lost any time on, on. So I'm gonna pick him for the third spot for. To be on the podium or Lipwitz.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, I think we crunched the numbers. He lost 0 seconds in the last 3k to Pagacha. That's pretty good. The guy's flying. Great climber. Plus 110. I'm gonna, I'm gonna zag here because of the time trial bike X factor. And it is a flatish opening 3k of the stage. I'm gonna go rimco evole plus 120 for the podium. We saw him with one of the strangest rides I've ever seen today. Being dropped twice. Dropped on the penultimate climb, which means he had to invest a lot of energy to chase back on. Gets dropped at the bottom of the final climb. Still is a decent climb. Finishes seventh on the stage. That kind of convinced me, like this guy might be pretty good in an uphill time trial, especially with 3k of like his preferred terrain to start. He's going to gain a lot of time at the start this stage. I think he could finish on the podium here. So I'm going to go +1.20 for REMCO Evanopole.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, I mean he, it's, it is, it is his preferred exercise, although it's a mountain time trial, but it's still an individual effort so he can ride his pace. And I actually think that Remco, you know, I mean, he looked bad there for a moment, but afterwards he kind of did a pretty good ride. You know, I mean, the way it looked on the Sulu, let me tell you, Spencer, where I was, Remco has just gotten dropped. I thought he was going to lose 10 minutes at least.

[Spencer Martin]

It wasn't like Van Wilbur. It looked like he was like waiting for him. Like Remco couldn't even keep up with his teammate.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. So he kind of recovered, did a great descent and the next climb that, that, that got two climb, he did really well and defended quite okay on, I mean, the proof he's still in third place. So I think that's. It didn't look that way on the solor when I was where I was standing there. So, you know, probably he had, he took some motivation out of that and, and can answer with a good result tomorrow.

[Spencer Martin]

And it kind of doesn't start to go against him until about 3k to go and then it tips maybe away from his favor. But before that it's, I think it's flat enough. He might be flying on that time trial bike if he's on it. Someone asked us like, what how do we weight these? So if a favorite is a unit like one. I've been doing wild cards for this tour at 0.2. So if we put $100 on a favorite, we put $20 on a wild card. But you can, you know, play around with that as, as you see fit. One that's been a, like, that's been a good option for us at this tour because a lot of the favorites have been winning. Not so much the wild cards. If you're at a Italian, a lot of wild cards are winning. Maybe it's better to go 1 on the favorite and 05 on the wild card. But 1 to 0.2 has worked well for us this tour. Let's take a quick break then we're going to do some head to heads. Johan, we'll be right back.

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[Spencer Martin]

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[Spencer Martin]

Okay, this is on FanDuel in the US Florian Lipowitz head to head against Remco Evanopol. Lipowitz is minus 172. Evanopol plus 126.

[Johan Berniel]

Based on what I've saw today. Lipowitz.

[Spencer Martin]

Right. Next one. Oscar Onley minus 186 versus Tobias Holland Johansson plus 138.

[Johan Berniel]

How did only do in the tour? Swiss.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, good question.

[Johan Berniel]

He was pretty good.

[Spencer Martin]

No, he was third in that time trial. And this, yeah, has been proving to be a pretty predictive race so far.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah. Oscar only. All right.

[Spencer Martin]

I mean this is actually kind of freaky. It's Felix goal Almeida crashed out. So he was first G second. Onley's third. Kevin Vaklan fourth. Harry Sweeney, who's been amazing, is fifth. So that's a freakishly predictive race. Primus Roglich minus 186 versus Kevin Vlan plus 138.

[Johan Berniel]

Primos.

[Spencer Martin]

Real Socks. Today or tomorrow? We don't know. T Pa. What was that, man? I don't know. That was I. I kind of wonder if he forgot his socks and he just had those to Wear this one. Makes no sense. I'm just reading it so people don't bet on it. Tadapagatra minus 700 versus Jonas Vinegar plus 410. I would think you would just bet on one of these because these are worse off. Win the stage.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, yeah, yeah. No, no, no. It makes no sense.

[Spencer Martin]

Don't do that.

[Johan Berniel]

Too much money, dude.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, because if Vinderard is going to beat Picacho, he's going to win the stage. So just bet on him at plus 500 or whatever to win the stage. Ben O' Connor minus 126 versus Carlos Rodriguez minus 108.

[Johan Berniel]

These two guys are in the break and they both finished on their knees today. Yeah. Huh. How much did they lose?

[Spencer Martin]

O' Connor was today 1043. Back Carlos Rodriguez 1231.

[Johan Berniel]

The question is now, Spencer, now that they're out of the seats, are they even gonna go fast tomorrow? Don't, don't you think you want to save yourself and try to go in the break and try to win a stage? Makes no sense to go. I mean, tomorrow there's, that's the problem of a time prop tomorrow. Tomorrow there's 10 riders going to go full gas. Everybody else is going to take. I mean, not easy because there's going to be a time cut. But still, I mean, you have to be really slow to be out of the time cut. So anyways, Carlos Rodriguez.

[Spencer Martin]

All right. I have no confidence in either one. Before we go, I thought this one was interesting. This is to win a stage, just any stage before the end of this race. Jonas Finnegard plus 175. W. Bernard plus 350. Mikel Key of Koski, who I did not know was here. Plus 410.

[Johan Berniel]

He's not. He's not.

[Spencer Martin]

Don't bet on that one. Florian Lip Woods.

[Johan Berniel]

That's kind of the race. I, I, I, yeah, that's a trap.

[Spencer Martin]

That's free money for the book. That's trying to see if you're paying attention. That's actually pretty, pretty bad that he's on there. Florian Lipowitz plus 650. Do you think any of these riders are going to win a stage before the end of the race?

[Johan Berniel]

Lipowitz can win a stage.

[Spencer Martin]

Plus 650. Lipowitz win a stage. I'm putting it down. I would say he has a better chance than Jonas Vinegar to win a.

[Johan Berniel]

Stage, but Jonas is gonna have to, you know, rely on the goodwill of today to let him win a stage.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, yeah, he's not really done that. In the past. Like, remember, he could have let him win Isla 2000 last year. Or. No, it was the stage after that. But I don't know, maybe. Maybe after they waited for him.

[Johan Berniel]

Maybe that.

[Spencer Martin]

That's why they waited.

[Johan Berniel]

They didn't.

[Spencer Martin]

They wanted to be gifted a stage at the end of the race. All right, well, thank. Anything else? Johan, before we take off?

[Johan Berniel]

I need to go to bed. Spencer, it's 1:00 clock in the morning.

[Spencer Martin]

Get to bed and get back to Madrid in the morning. That's gonna be a tough day.

[Johan Berniel]

Okay, thanks.

[Spencer Martin]

All right, bye.

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