Tour de France Stage 18 Preview | OŪTCOMES

Summary

THEMOVE Podcast Episode Summary: "Tour de France Stage 18 Preview | OUTCOMES"

Release Date: July 23, 2025

In this engaging episode of THEMOVE, host Lance Armstrong delves deep into the highly anticipated Stage 18 of the 2025 Tour de France. Co-hosts Spencer Martin and Johan Berniel provide expert analysis, predictions, and betting insights, transforming listeners from mere spectators into informed insiders of the race.

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1. Introduction to Stage 18

The episode kicks off with Spencer Martin and Johan Berniel setting the stage for one of the Tour de France's most challenging segments:

• Spencer Martin [00:48]: "Predicting stage 18 of the Tour de France, a 171km grueling route through the Alps, featuring three HC mountains. It's the Queen stage of the race."

They highlight the intense elevation, debating the vertical meters between 5,400 to 5,600 meters, indicating the stage's formidable nature.

2. Betting Odds and Favorites

The hosts delve into the betting landscape, presenting the current odds and their initial predictions:

• Spencer Martin [01:58]: "Tadej Pogačar is the favorite at minus 150 on Unibet. Jonas Vingegaard is listed at plus 450."

• Johan Berniel [02:17]: "This is a two-horse race between Pogačar and Vingegaard. Given the stage's difficulty, breakaways are unlikely to succeed."

Both agree that Pogačar, known for his calculated and conservative racing style, is poised to win unless Vingegaard can pull off a surprising finish.

3. Stage Analysis and Key Riders

A thorough analysis of the stage's terrain and its impact on the riders follows:

• Spencer Martin [05:43]: "The profile is unforgiving. With 5,500 meters of elevation, breakaways are virtually impossible. Visma needs to exert maximum effort on the Madeline climb."

• Johan Berniel [06:29]: "Courchevel 2000 and Col Deluxe are pivotal. Historically, champions like Pantani and Valverde have dominated these climbs, showcasing their climbing prowess."

They discuss how the stage's multiple severe climbs will test the riders' endurance and strategy, making it a decisive moment in the Tour.

4. Predicting the Podium

The conversation shifts to potential podium finishers beyond the stage winner:

• Johan Berniel [07:00]: "Ben Healy at plus 700 is a strong contender for the podium. His performance on Mont Ventou was impressive, and he shows resilience in long efforts."

• Spencer Martin [08:04]: "Healy’s consistency, especially in adverse weather conditions, makes him a reliable pick for third place."

The hosts emphasize Healy's stamina and tactical acumen as key factors that could secure him a spot on the podium.

5. Head-to-Head Matchups

Spencer and Johan engage in a spirited discussion of various rider head-to-head scenarios, analyzing odds and making strategic picks:

• Ben Healy vs. Carlos Rodriguez [08:47]: Both at minus 118, they lean towards Healy due to his recent form and endurance.

• Oscar Onley vs. Felix Gall [08:47]: Favoring Oscar Onley at minus 136, citing stronger performance metrics.

• Tadej Pogačar vs. Jonas Vingegaard [08:47]: Solidifying their stance, they reiterate confidence in Pogačar's ability to outpace Vingegaard.

• Ben O’Connor vs. Guillaume Martin [10:50]: Although both are ranked around 12th and 13th in General Classification (GC), they prefer Guillaume Martin for his climbing strengths.

• Florian Lipwitz vs. Primož Roglič [12:35]: Opting for Roglič, they believe his experience and strategic pacing will outperform Lipwitz.

Notable Quote:

• Spencer Martin [09:07]: "If there's a breakaway and Pogačar doesn't pass Jonas at the end, it would be a disappointing stage outcome."

6. Potential Race Scenarios

The hosts explore various scenarios that could disrupt their predictions:

• Spencer Martin [09:48]: "Yesterday's stage undermined the Visma team's strategy when Jonas couldn't crack Pogačar as expected."

• Johan Berniel [10:21]: "While theory suggests Pogačar's dominance, fatigue and unforeseen attacks can change the race dynamics."

They caution listeners to consider the unpredictable nature of cycling, where even favorites can falter under pressure.

7. Conclusion and Upcoming Segments

Wrapping up, Spencer and Johan express anticipation for an exciting Stage 18, though they acknowledge the risk of a race stalemate:

• Spencer Martin [13:36]: "I hope for an exciting stage, but a stalemate is also a possibility."

They tease a special segment featuring the UCI president in the next episode, promising deeper insights and debates.

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Final Thoughts:

This episode of THEMOVE offers a comprehensive preview of Tour de France Stage 18, blending expert analysis with strategic betting insights. Spencer Martin and Johan Berniel provide listeners with a nuanced understanding of the race's complexities, making it indispensable for cycling enthusiasts and bettors alike. With detailed breakdowns of rider performances, stage challenges, and potential outcomes, the episode ensures that listeners are well-equipped to follow and anticipate the thrilling developments of the Tour de France.

Notable Quotes:

• Spencer Martin [05:43]: "The breakaway cannot stay away. Jonas should be our second option for a real wild card."

• Johan Berniel [07:00]: "Ben Healy was very strong on Mont Ventou. He is that strong and impressive."

• Spencer Martin [09:07]: "If there's a breakaway and Pogačar doesn't pass Jonas at the end, it would be a very disappointing stage."

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Tune into THEMOVE for more in-depth coverage and exclusive insights into the world of cycling and endurance sports.

Transcript

[Spencer Martin]

It kind of undermines the visma thesis, though, because it's like, no, Tade will crack. But it's like, well, if that's what you think, you cannot set up, because then he could be about to crack, right?

[Johan Berniel]

But let's not forget, Spencer, this is all theory. You know, let's not forget that these guys are human. They are great athletes, but they're also tired. And, you know, theory is good and you can have a plan and the strategy and you're gonna try, but, you know, ultimately, if you put in three attacks and you can't shake it, then you're done. You know, you can't keep going. And fort died.

[Spencer Martin]

Hi, I'm Spencer Martin along with Johan Berniel, and this is Outcomes.

[Podcast Disclaimer]

Outcomes is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this podcast should be considered financial advice. Please gamble responsibly, and if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, seek help from a professional resource. Hosts and guests may have financial interests in the bets discussed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

[Spencer Martin]

Everybody. Welcome back to Outcomes. I'm Spencer Martin. I'm here with Johan Berniel. We are predicting stage 18 of the Tour de France 171km stage through the Alps, three HC mountains, the Queen stage of the race. A little bit of debate on the vertical meters. I see 5600. The road book says 5400. We'll only know after they upload their Stravas, but I'll list off the odds and then Johan and I will predict who's going to win and how it's going to play out before you. If you want to bet before you do it, make sure you check out our partner, NextBets. That's nxtbets.com betoutcomes and it shows you where you can bet wherever you live, as well as the best signup bonuses like I'm looking at. DraftKings. Bet $5, get 150 or bet365, bet $5, get 150. I should do both of those. Or Caesars bet $1, double your winnings for the next 10 bets. We might need that to dig us out of the hole we fell into with the Holloway fight, but next bets is there to help us. Johan. I'm just going to list them. Read them from Unibet because that's what you can see, but I'll call them out if they're better elsewhere. Tate Pagacha is the favorite at minus 150. Jonas Finagard plus 4.

[Johan Berniel]

50.

[Spencer Martin]

Diamond Arnsman, plus 16. Hundred Valentin per pantra plus 2000. Ben Healy plus 2500. Carlos Rodriguez plus 2500. I know. Rubio plus 2500 Inri Mouse plus 3300. It goes on and on but we'll call him out when we need to. Who do you think is going to win this and how's it going to play out?

[Johan Berniel]

Spencer? I mean, you know, this is these kind of stages based on what we have seen in basically all the stages that are super hard. This is a two horse race. It's Jonas and Pulachar. The way the stage is designed, it's three horse category climbs. Breakaways will be there. They probably can't make it to the finish because of the toughness of the stage, the difficulty of the stage. So I'm afraid I have to be very unoriginal and say Tadey Pogachar is winning this. He's the heavy favorite. Assuming that Jonas can't shake him, which he hasn't been able to do at any point in this race, I don't see any reason why that would happen tomorrow. Especially the way Pogacha is racing right now. He's very calculated and conservative. So Pogacha for the win minus 150.

[Spencer Martin]

He's actually apparently minus 125 at Caesars. So I am personally going to check that out myself.

[Johan Berniel]

Minus 50 on unibed right now and.

[Spencer Martin]

And plunging because actually I, I think he should be priced worse than this. I'm going to pick him as well. I think Jonas had, I think he does not drop Jonas and, but he wins the stage. I think he's going to outspread him at the finish. Jonas looks very good. Maybe the best climbing performances we've ever seen from him. What? He was five minutes faster than he was last time. He did Von 2 yesterday. I don't think Pagachar can crack him like last year but I do think he's going to win this stage because he just, Jonas cannot outs run him at the finish. I know he did it once, what Was that? Stage 11 last year. But I just do not see a repeat of that.

[Johan Berniel]

Well, yeah, I mean, you know, and that's why I say, you know, today is not making the same mistakes. You know, I mean also he has now he has 4 minutes 15 advantage. I think at that point last year he didn't have that much advantage but still, you know, he doesn't need to attack. It's, you know, it's, it's highly unlikely. I think Visma and Jonas are going to try they have to, you know, you're right. Yesterday, for example, was a very good performance of Jonas. I think he was also publicly saying that this was one of the best, the best number numbers he had. So they have to try, but they can only hope for a weak moment or, you know, a weekday, whatever. Pogacciar didn't sleep well or, you know, he doesn't feel his usual self. That's their only hope. Because today only needs to look at one guy and that's Jonas.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, and I, I, I, I agree. I mean, it's just he's in such a strong position because of the lead he has at the moment. Like, Pagacho doesn't have to do anything. He just has to sit back and watch Jonas. It makes it so hard on Jonas. With that in mind, I mean, we, we were looking at this profile. It's going to be very hard for a breakaway to get any sort of gap because Visma has to ride all out on the Madeline. The second climb, the finish climb, Col Delos, very hard, 26k long. And that's just the categorized section. George said there's about 5k before it that you climb up just to get to the base of the climb.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, well, it's, you know, this side of Col de Laos is basically the usual climb of Courchevel, which is already hard. Yeah, I think one year Pantani won there and then another year Valverde won there. But anyway, I remember the year of Pantani and you know, he would just, he dropped everybody. He dropped Lance and Heras and all the big climbers. So it's a hard climb. But then once you get to Courchevel, whether it's Courchevel, I think it's called Courchevel 2000 or something. And then it keeps going up towards Col Deluxe. So, yeah, it's very hard. I mean, I think 5,500 meters of elevation over the stage says it all.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, that's not easy. And there's just no other option. They have to make this hard. The breakaway cannot stay away. So my wild card is going to be Jonas Vinegard plus 450 because it's the only other rider that can beat Tatipagacha today or tomorrow.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, I agree, I agree. It's, you know, it's, you know, it's very difficult to, to, for a breakaway to, to make it. I agree. Jonas should be our second option for a real wild card. Spencer. I'm going to go a little further than that, but not for the win. But Ben Healy plus 700 for the podium. You know, going off what we saw yesterday and it's a different stage because it was, you know, flat and then one, just one climb. But Ben Healy was very strong on Mont Ventou. I could envision a scenario where Ben Healy is in the break and he doesn't get caught by many guys except by Jonas and today and he holds on for third. He is that strong. In my opinion. He was, he was really impressive on the Vantou did the majority of the work, you know, did the majority of the chasing. Then afterwards he attacked, you know, he was on the wheel, couldn't drop him. I think, you know, in stages like this, it's really, you know, the guys who have the most left in the tank and I think Ben Healy is one of them. So 700 for the podium. I could see that happen.

[Spencer Martin]

I like it. I like it a lot. Yeah, I don't think it's. It's not worth trying to guess someone that's going to win because with the pace this hot, I don't think anybody else wins. Someone has to finish third though. Why not Ben Healy? He almost won a Von 2 and tomorrow's stage probably been. It probably suits him better than Vontu because it's. He can. It almost just seems like he doesn't fatigue over these long efforts. So the multiple climbs, bad weather potentially, or at least cold weather, which Ben Healy's quite good in. So I think that that's a good pick. Let's take a quick break and then we'll do some head heads. All right, Johan, so we're back with the head heads fan on Fanduel in the US the first one, Ben Healy minus 118 versus Carlos Rodriguez minus 118.

[Johan Berniel]

Ben Healy.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, I'd be concerned if you didn't pick him. Oscar Onley minus 136 versus Felix Gall plus 102 only. Yeah, I like that. Tadipogacha minus 310 versus Jonas Vinegard plus 220.

[Johan Berniel]

Normally it's Bogachar can only see one potential, potential scenario where Pogachar doesn't pass Jonas at the end, which would be if there's a break gone and the bonifications are gone. But no, I don't see that happening.

[Spencer Martin]

So that would be a very disappointing stage if they're going slow and the breakaway wins.

[Johan Berniel]

Well, I mean, you never know. I mean they attack, they can attack each other, you know, see that not this guy cannot drop the other guy and vice versa. And there's just a stalemate and they, they, they. You know, they're slowing down so much. I mean, it, it happened yesterday. Yesterday.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, yesterday.

[Johan Berniel]

Right.

[Spencer Martin]

It kind of undermines the visma thesis, though, because it's like, no, Tade will crack. But it's like, well, if that's what you think, you cannot set up, because then he could be about to crack. Right.

[Johan Berniel]

But let's not forget, Spencer, this is all theory. You know, let's not forget that these guys are human. They are great athletes, but they're also tired. And, you know, theory is good and you can have a plan and the strategy, and we're going to try, but, you know, ultimately, if you put in three attacks and you can't shake him, then you're done. You know, you can't keep going a fourth time.

[Spencer Martin]

And then remember what happened over the tourmaline in 2023. It's like vinegar. Kept pressing.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

And then he just got smoked on the final climb. Last climb.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

Like, yeah, you're right. It could be in the back of his head. Like, maybe I don't want to keep pushing. And then somebody else wins.

[Johan Berniel]

Was that on Kotere? I think it was coterie.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, it's spelled like catarout. Catarouts is what it looks like.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, it's called Kotere.

[Spencer Martin]

That makes more sense. And next one. Ben O' Connor minus 310 versus Guillaume Martin plus 220. This is really hard.

[Johan Berniel]

Ben O' Connor is empty. I think we're gonna. Where are they in GC? These two guys around 20th place, probably.

[Spencer Martin]

They must be. Ben Okan is 12th. Holy.

[Johan Berniel]

Oh, he's 12th. Oh, wow.

[Spencer Martin]

Huh? Wow. He's 35 minutes back. Guillaume is 13th.

[Johan Berniel]

Okay. That. So that's why they're okay. Guillaume is the first French writer. Oh, no, he is not. He's. And Kevin and Vocal Eye. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Let's do o'.

[Spencer Martin]

Connor.

[Johan Berniel]

He's. He's gonna keep. I mean, he's gonna keep going. O'. Connor.

[Spencer Martin]

All right. Ben o'. Connor. I mean, he has to. He could be. I guess in theory, he could be top 10, kind of. I don't think so. Well, there could be bear attacks. You never know what's going to happen to two of their guys. And Florian Lipwitz minus 132 versus Primus Roglich plus 102.

[Johan Berniel]

Spencer, he cannot be top 10. Sorry to. He's. He's eight minutes behind 11th and he's 11 minutes behind 10 plays, so.

[Spencer Martin]

No, well, actually, Tobias Holland Johansson, we don't know what exactly is going on with him.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

And then you just need one other dnf. No, no, you need.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, yeah. Okay. Yeah. In that case. In that case. Yeah. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Well, so who was the, the last head to head?

[Spencer Martin]

Actually, it's. It's my favorite one. It's flooring lip minus 132 versus Primus Roglich plus 102.

[Johan Berniel]

Big Mountain Stage man tomorrow.

[Spencer Martin]

Primos looked better on Von too.

[Johan Berniel]

Let's not, let's not forget Primos, you know, still. It's 2 minutes 40. I'm gonna go for Florian. 2 minutes 40. He's not getting back to his. Anyway, he could be in front of him in the stage, but he would.

[Spencer Martin]

Have to like pace him in. Right.

[Johan Berniel]

Because he's not gonna have to wait for him and come in. Yeah, that's, that's, you know, that actually could happen.

[Spencer Martin]

That's what happened the other day.

[Johan Berniel]

That would happen on Vontou. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Let's go for. Yeah, yeah, yeah. In that scenario, let's go for Roglich. Roglic gets.

[Spencer Martin]

Okay.

[Johan Berniel]

Drags Florian lipids to the finish. Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

All right, Johan, anything else before we take off? All right. Well, I hope we get an exciting stage now. I'm worried we'll get a stalemate.

[Johan Berniel]

These are. Listen to the MOVE podcast tomorrow. This special segment coming, very interesting.

[Spencer Martin]

The UCI president's coming on to debate Johan Berniel. Are you to debate? Well, thank you and please tune in to the MOVE tomorrow if you want to see Johan and we'll talk soon. Okay, thanks, bye.