Tour de France Stage 20 Preview | OŪTCOMES

Summary

THEMOVE Podcast Episode Summary
Title: Tour de France Stage 20 Preview | Outcomes
Host: Lance Armstrong
Release Date: July 25, 2025

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Introduction to Stage 20

In this episode of THEMOVE, hosts Lance Armstrong and guest Johan Brunel delve deep into the intricacies of Stage 20 of the Tour de France. They analyze the stage's challenging terrain, forecast potential race dynamics, and discuss key contenders poised to make their mark.

Stage Characteristics and Race Dynamics

Stage 20 spans 184 kilometers, featuring four categorized climbs and nearly 3,000 meters of elevation. Both hosts agree that the stage is unlikely to conclude with a sprint finish, citing the grueling nature of the terrain and the riders' fatigue.

Johan Brunel [00:00]: "This is definitely a breakaway. I can't see this being a sprint stage at all. Sprinters, I think, first of all, they're super tired. They can't make it over. I mean, this is hard terrain."

The duo emphasizes that the stage won't significantly impact the General Classification (GC), as the climbs aren't steep enough to create substantial gaps among the top contenders. Instead, they predict a breakaway day, with numerous riders eager to seize the opportunity after several demanding mountain stages.

Favorite Picks and Betting Insights

Spencer Martin introduces the favorite contenders based on odds from oddschecker.com, highlighting:

• Quinn Simmons (+1000)
• Wout Van Aert (+1200)
• Victor Campenaerts (+1800)
• Ben Healy (+2100)
• Julian Alaphilippe (+2400)
• Jonathan Narvaez (+2400)

Spencer Martin [01:59]: "Quinn Simmons is clearly very fit. I'm going to pick him at plus 1000, which means if you bet a hundred dollars on him, you win $1,000 in profit."

Both hosts advocate for Wout Van Aert as a strong candidate, praising his endurance and current form despite not being at his peak performance compared to previous Tours.

Johan Brunel [02:43]: "Walt Van Aert is in good enough shape. This is definitely not the best Walt Van Aert we've seen compared to other Tours."

Wild Card Candidates

Wild cards offer bettors a chance to back less-heralded riders who might clinch the stage win. Johan identifies Frank Vanden Broek from Picnic Post NL as a promising dark horse, citing his impressive performance in recent stages and his ability to sustain efforts on tough terrains.

Johan Brunel [06:28]: "Frank Vanden Broek... he's priced really well at +5000 and he's a strong rider."

Spencer suggests another wild card, Jonas Abrahamson (+3400), noting his relentless pedaling and sprint capabilities, which could prove decisive in a tightly contested breakaway.

Spencer Martin [07:13]: "...Jonas Abrahamson is a guy who just kind of always has the pressure on the pedals, even if it doesn't make complete logical sense."

Rider Strategies and Racecraft

The conversation touches upon the importance of racecraft, particularly for Quinn Simmons. Johan points out that while Simmons possesses the necessary power, mastering the subtle art of conserving energy until the crucial moments could enhance his chances of victory.

Johan Brunel [05:06]: "Don't let them feel it. That you mean sometimes try to be a bit conservative and save something, which is something that Quinn still needs to master with."

Spencer echoes this sentiment, expressing hopes that Simmons has learned from observing seasoned riders like Tim Well, potentially incorporating effective drafting and pacing strategies into his racing approach.

Weather Impact on the Stage

Anticipating rain for the upcoming stage, both hosts consider its potential influence on rider performance and stage dynamics. Spencer notes that riders from Uno-X appear better prepared for inclement weather, which could provide them with a slight edge.

Spencer Martin [09:16]: "They tend to bundle up. That might be important tomorrow."

Johan agrees, emphasizing that the selected favorites are well-equipped to handle the rainy conditions, thereby maintaining their competitive edge.

Additional Considerations

The discussion briefly touches on the King of the Mountains standings, with Daddy Bagatra holding a significant lead. However, given the stage's profile, it's unlikely that major shifts in the mountain classifications will occur.

Johan Brunel [10:22]: "How many points are even available tomorrow? Third and fourth categories."

Conclusion and Final Picks

Wrapping up the episode, Spencer finalizes his picks by adding Victor Campenaerts (+1800) to his selection, highlighting Campenaerts' consistent strength in the race.

Spencer Martin [11:07]: "I'm going to put that. This is the stage that he would when he's been crazy strong at this race as well."

Both hosts express confidence in their selections, anticipating a thrilling finale to the Tour de France's second-to-last stage. They sign off with enthusiasm, promising an engaging conclusion to the Tour in their final episode.

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Notable Quotes

• Johan Brunel [00:00]: "This is definitely a breakaway. I can't see this being a sprint stage at all."
• Spencer Martin [01:59]: "Quinn Simmons is clearly very fit. I'm going to pick him at plus 1000."
• Johan Brunel [05:06]: "Don't let them feel it. That you mean sometimes try to be a bit conservative."
• Spencer Martin [07:13]: "Jonas Abrahamson is a guy who just kind of always has the pressure on the pedals."
• Spencer Martin [09:16]: "They tend to bundle up. That might be important tomorrow."
• Spencer Martin [11:07]: "I'm going to put that. This is the stage that he would when he's been crazy strong at this race as well."

Final Thoughts

In this THEMOVE episode, Lance Armstrong and Johan Brunel offer a comprehensive preview of Tour de France Stage 20, blending expert analysis with strategic betting insights. Their discussion ensures listeners are well-equipped to understand the stage's potential outcomes, key players, and the variables that might influence the final results.

Whether you're a seasoned cycling enthusiast or a casual fan, this episode provides valuable perspectives that transform listeners into informed insiders of the world’s most iconic cycling race.

Transcript

[Johan Brunel]

Yeah, I agree. This is definitely a breakaway. I can't see this being a sprint stage at all. Sprinters, I think, first of all, they're super tired. They can't make it over. I mean, this is hard terrain. If you Look, Spencer, it's 184 kilometers, almost 3,000 meters of elevation. So it's hard breakaway for sure. I also can't. It's not a GC day because the climbs are not hard enough to create any separation between the top 10, top 5, top 10. So breakaway. And I think also that there's a lot of riders in this peloton who have been waiting for this day now in the last few mountain stages.

[Spencer Martin]

Hi, I'm Spencer Martin along with Johan Brunel, and this is Outcomes.

[Podcast Announcer]

Outcomes is for informational entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this podcast should be considered financial advice. Please gamble responsibly. And if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, seek help from a professional resource. Host and guests may have financial interests in the bets discussed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

[Spencer Martin]

Everybody. Welcome back to Outcomes. I'm Spencer Martini here with Johan Berniel. We are predicting and previewing stage 20 of the Tour de France. 184 kilometers. Kind of a long stage. Four categorized climbs. Probably a breakaway day. But I will list off the favorites from oddschecker.com because they give you the best price. And if you want to bet and you don't know how to remember, we have a partner. Next bets. Just go to nxt bets.com bet outcomes and they'll show you where you can bet, where you live and the best deals on each book and. And sign up bonuses. So make sure you check out nxtbets.com betcomes but Johan, the favorite. This is interesting to me. Quinn Simmons plus 1000. Wout Van Aert plus 1200. Victor Campinartz plus 1800. Ben Healy plus 2100. Julian Alaphilippe plus 2400. Jonathan Narvaez plus 2400. It goes on and on.

[Johan Brunel]

We'll call them out when we need.

[Spencer Martin]

To, but clearly the market thinks this is a breakaway day. What do you think?

[Johan Brunel]

Yeah, I agree. This is definitely a breakaway. I can't see this being a sprint stage at all. Sprinters, I think, first of all, they're super tired. They can't make it over. I mean, this is hard terrain. If you Look, Spencer, it's 184 kilometers, almost 3,000 meters of elevation. So it's hard breakaway for sure. Um, I also can't. It's not A GC day because the climbs are not hard enough to create any separation between the top 10, top 5, top 10. So breakaway. And I think also that there's a lot of riders in this peloton who have been waiting for this day, you know, in the last few mountain stages. So I'm going to go with Walt Von Aert to win the stage for. For several reasons. First of all, because it's Walt Van Aert, we need to keep considering him as a huge engine, and I think he's in good enough shape. This is definitely not the best Walt Van Aert we've seen compared to other Tours, and also because Visma kind of would be nice if they get another stage. I mean, the GC is over. There's nothing else they can do. And I think Walt Von Aert, for example, and also he's going to have help tomorrow of. In my opinion, another Belgian on the team with Victor Campenaerts is going to be in the breakaway, too. He's in great, great form. I think Walt Van Aert is my. My pick, plus 1200. I think that's a really good price for him.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, I like that he's going to be strong. He got dropped early today. I assume that's because they deduced he couldn't help a lot and he wants to win tomorrow. They might need a stage win after they, I would say, biffed today's stage win. The only thing I worry about is wout Benhardt is often the favorite for these stages. It often seems like, how could wout Bernard not win a stage with 3,000 meters of climbing? Breakaway. It's locked in well. He's going to be pretty closely marked. There are, I think, only a few riders with the raw strength to win this and, like, freshness in their legs. I think one of them, outside of Wout Bernard is Quinn Simmons. Plus 1000. We saw him poll. I mean, did you see this the other day? I didn't really like seeing it, but it does make me feel good about Simmons for tomorrow, where vanart attacked and Simmons just sat on the front, didn't panic, and reeled him in by himself after controlling the breakaway and after setting the pace before that. So Quinn Simmons is clearly very fit. I'm going to pick him at plus 1000, which means if you bet a hundred dollars on him, you win $1,000 in profit.

[Johan Brunel]

Yeah. Yeah. Good. Yeah, for sure. For sure. Simmons is one of the guys who has shown that he still has power left. You know, it's, It's. It's it's not like people say, yeah, you. Sometimes they get better, right? They don't get better. They just have something left where everybody else.

[Spencer Martin]

They get less worse. Yeah.

[Johan Brunel]

You know, that's a good one. He definitely has the physical condition, the power to be in the break. The only thing that I would say, I mean, if something to say against it would be don't show your power too much. Don't make it too obvious that you're strong. Everybody knows it already, but don't let them feel it. That you mean sometimes try to be a bit conservative and save something, which is something that Quinn still needs to master with.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah. And the fact that, I don't know, I want to see Quinn with a little more race Racecraft. Maybe he's learned though. Maybe he saw Tim well and sit on jump in the moto slipstream and ride away and got some ideas that'll help deploy tomorrow. But let's take a quick ad break and then on the other side, we'll get your wild card for the stage win. And as people know, since you got the wild card right today, with Time and Ironsman, they definitely want to stick around to hear that. All right, Johan, we are back. Who is your wild card? And wild cards are important for this stage because, you know, some days we talk about, like heavily weight the favorite and put a little bit on the wild card today is like borderline close to 50, 50 for your. Your units for your wild card versus your favorite times. The person that's less. Less watched will win. So really important day for the wild card. Who do you think could. Could win? That's not the.

[Johan Brunel]

Well, yeah, I mean, one. One guy I saw the last few days, but in particular today was. Was impressive to me on. On, which is not his terrain, and that's why I'm going to pick it as my wild card. It's also because he's priced really well is Frank Vanden Broek from Picnic Post NL. He's +5000 and he's a strong rider. He basically helped Romain Bardet win stage one last year in the Tour, but today he was there for. For Oscar only till very, very deep in the final. And in order to do that, you know, he didn't come from a breakaway, so he was there hanging with the strong guys. In order to be there, you have to be in good form.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, I did notice that as well. Like, he was there until pretty late in the stage. Also last year, Stage one at the Tour, like, you have to have such a big engine to do what he did with Bardet. Um, I don't hate that pick. Plus 5,500. I'm gonna go. And it's gonna. It's gonna sound like, oh, you guys are just saying the same people. But as we saw today, it is the same people every day. And you know who broke away at the start of this stage, I think maybe just to even get the legs warmed up? Jonas Abraham. Plus 3400. He's a guy, like, he just kind of always has the. The pressure on the pedals, even if it doesn't make complete logical sense. But sometimes you need to be like that to win a stage like tomorrow. So I'm gonna go with him at +3400.

[Johan Brunel]

Good one. Yeah. And it's a terrain for him. You know, I mean, he, he, he. When he goes at the end, man, I mean, don't give him 10, 20 meters or he's gone from the breakaway then. Right. And. And he also has a sprint, which is. Which is an advantage for a stage like this. You know, if they go, let's say I can envision that there's going to be a breakaway of, like, 15, 20 riders. Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

And it will, like, break itself up.

[Johan Brunel]

Yeah. Yeah. So if Abrahamson is ahead with two or three other riders, he can still win in the sprint.

[Spencer Martin]

Well, the thing about Opera Hunson that I really like and I think is important to this tour. Like what that stage that he won. I forget the new. The number that goes along with it, but, you know, he's only a few seconds in front of the chasing group and then in front of the peloton, and instead of being discouraged, he just, like, keeps on it. But it means that he stays out of a lot of the muck, and it makes it a simpler race for him. Like, I was really impressed with that, and I think tomorrow will be one in a similar fashion, where someone's going to get a tiny gap and hold it all the way to the finish line, and there will be a bunch of stuff going on behind, stuff you don't want to be involved with going on behind that will keep whoever's stuck back there from winning. Also, another.

[Johan Brunel]

Another. Another thing, Spencer. Isn't it going to rain tomorrow?

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, rainy.

[Johan Brunel]

So that's obviously also a factor to. To take into account, but I think that our picks deal well with those circumstances. Quinn Simmons. Walt Van Art Abrahamson, Vanden Brook.

[Spencer Martin]

Yes. And I don't know, like, maybe this is not true, but it does feel like. I feel like when it's rainy or bad weather, the Uno X riders tend to dress better than everybody else.

[Johan Brunel]

I don't know if that's because. I don't know about that.

[Spencer Martin]

If you pay close attention, they are like. I noticed Tobias Helen Johansen put like a. He was like in like full thermal gear. This was yesterday after going over one of the climbs. It's like, when did you even have time to put that on? But yeah, they. They tend to bundle up. That might be important tomorrow. There's no head to heads on Fanduel. I wonder if. I don't know if it's too early or if it's just such a high variance stage that no book wants to do that. But Johan, before we. I assume King of the mountains is locked up. Daddy Bagatra is minus 30,000. So you'd have to bet $30,000. 100 maybe. Don't do that. Points.

[Johan Brunel]

How many. How many points are even available tomorrow? Third and fourth categories.

[Spencer Martin]

Okay.

[Johan Brunel]

That's the second category.

[Spencer Martin]

I think the only person that could overtake him is Jonas.

[Johan Brunel]

Okay. Yeah, not going to happen.

[Spencer Martin]

So that might not happen unless we see a line to line breakaway. Jonas vinegard. He wins or no, he. Let's say he gets away. He gifts it to W. Ben Art, but then he lose. He's. He actually doesn't get the jersey by two seconds and the gift costs on the jersey. That could happen. We can't rule that out. But do you want to pick one more wild card in lieu of a head to head? Because tomorrow is a super high variant stage. Is there anyone else that you think could win this stage?

[Johan Brunel]

Victor.

[Spencer Martin]

Actually. I actually like that a lot. He's plus 1800. I'm going to put that. Put that down. This is the stage that he would. When he's been crazy strong at this race as well.

[Johan Brunel]

He's been very strong. Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah. And tomorrow presumably he'll be up in the break with wout. So I would bet on both of those Vizman riders. It's not a bad idea. Will Johan, anything else on tomorrow's stage?

[Johan Brunel]

No, that's it.

[Spencer Martin]

All right, have a good evening and we will be back tomorrow for our last episode of the Tour de France.

[Podcast Announcer]

If you can believe it.

[Johan Brunel]

Okay. Thanks, Spencer.

[Spencer Martin]

All right, bye.

[Johan Brunel]

Sam.