THEMOVE Podcast Episode Summary
Title: Tour de France Stage 20 Preview | Outcomes
Host: Lance Armstrong
Release Date: July 25, 2025
Introduction to Stage 20
In this episode of THEMOVE, hosts Lance Armstrong and guest Johan Brunel delve deep into the intricacies of Stage 20 of the Tour de France. They analyze the stage's challenging terrain, forecast potential race dynamics, and discuss key contenders poised to make their mark.
Stage Characteristics and Race Dynamics
Stage 20 spans 184 kilometers, featuring four categorized climbs and nearly 3,000 meters of elevation. Both hosts agree that the stage is unlikely to conclude with a sprint finish, citing the grueling nature of the terrain and the riders' fatigue.
Johan Brunel [00:00]: "This is definitely a breakaway. I can't see this being a sprint stage at all. Sprinters, I think, first of all, they're super tired. They can't make it over. I mean, this is hard terrain."
The duo emphasizes that the stage won't significantly impact the General Classification (GC), as the climbs aren't steep enough to create substantial gaps among the top contenders. Instead, they predict a breakaway day, with numerous riders eager to seize the opportunity after several demanding mountain stages.
Favorite Picks and Betting Insights
Spencer Martin introduces the favorite contenders based on odds from oddschecker.com, highlighting:
- Quinn Simmons (+1000)
- Wout Van Aert (+1200)
- Victor Campenaerts (+1800)
- Ben Healy (+2100)
- Julian Alaphilippe (+2400)
- Jonathan Narvaez (+2400)
Spencer Martin [01:59]: "Quinn Simmons is clearly very fit. I'm going to pick him at plus 1000, which means if you bet a hundred dollars on him, you win $1,000 in profit."
Both hosts advocate for Wout Van Aert as a strong candidate, praising his endurance and current form despite not being at his peak performance compared to previous Tours.
Johan Brunel [02:43]: "Walt Van Aert is in good enough shape. This is definitely not the best Walt Van Aert we've seen compared to other Tours."
Wild Card Candidates
Wild cards offer bettors a chance to back less-heralded riders who might clinch the stage win. Johan identifies Frank Vanden Broek from Picnic Post NL as a promising dark horse, citing his impressive performance in recent stages and his ability to sustain efforts on tough terrains.
Johan Brunel [06:28]: "Frank Vanden Broek... he's priced really well at +5000 and he's a strong rider."
Spencer suggests another wild card, Jonas Abrahamson (+3400), noting his relentless pedaling and sprint capabilities, which could prove decisive in a tightly contested breakaway.
Spencer Martin [07:13]: "...Jonas Abrahamson is a guy who just kind of always has the pressure on the pedals, even if it doesn't make complete logical sense."
Rider Strategies and Racecraft
The conversation touches upon the importance of racecraft, particularly for Quinn Simmons. Johan points out that while Simmons possesses the necessary power, mastering the subtle art of conserving energy until the crucial moments could enhance his chances of victory.
Johan Brunel [05:06]: "Don't let them feel it. That you mean sometimes try to be a bit conservative and save something, which is something that Quinn still needs to master with."
Spencer echoes this sentiment, expressing hopes that Simmons has learned from observing seasoned riders like Tim Well, potentially incorporating effective drafting and pacing strategies into his racing approach.
Weather Impact on the Stage
Anticipating rain for the upcoming stage, both hosts consider its potential influence on rider performance and stage dynamics. Spencer notes that riders from Uno-X appear better prepared for inclement weather, which could provide them with a slight edge.
Spencer Martin [09:16]: "They tend to bundle up. That might be important tomorrow."
Johan agrees, emphasizing that the selected favorites are well-equipped to handle the rainy conditions, thereby maintaining their competitive edge.
Additional Considerations
The discussion briefly touches on the King of the Mountains standings, with Daddy Bagatra holding a significant lead. However, given the stage's profile, it's unlikely that major shifts in the mountain classifications will occur.
Johan Brunel [10:22]: "How many points are even available tomorrow? Third and fourth categories."
Conclusion and Final Picks
Wrapping up the episode, Spencer finalizes his picks by adding Victor Campenaerts (+1800) to his selection, highlighting Campenaerts' consistent strength in the race.
Spencer Martin [11:07]: "I'm going to put that. This is the stage that he would when he's been crazy strong at this race as well."
Both hosts express confidence in their selections, anticipating a thrilling finale to the Tour de France's second-to-last stage. They sign off with enthusiasm, promising an engaging conclusion to the Tour in their final episode.
Notable Quotes
- Johan Brunel [00:00]: "This is definitely a breakaway. I can't see this being a sprint stage at all."
- Spencer Martin [01:59]: "Quinn Simmons is clearly very fit. I'm going to pick him at plus 1000."
- Johan Brunel [05:06]: "Don't let them feel it. That you mean sometimes try to be a bit conservative."
- Spencer Martin [07:13]: "Jonas Abrahamson is a guy who just kind of always has the pressure on the pedals."
- Spencer Martin [09:16]: "They tend to bundle up. That might be important tomorrow."
- Spencer Martin [11:07]: "I'm going to put that. This is the stage that he would when he's been crazy strong at this race as well."
Final Thoughts
In this THEMOVE episode, Lance Armstrong and Johan Brunel offer a comprehensive preview of Tour de France Stage 20, blending expert analysis with strategic betting insights. Their discussion ensures listeners are well-equipped to understand the stage's potential outcomes, key players, and the variables that might influence the final results.
Whether you're a seasoned cycling enthusiast or a casual fan, this episode provides valuable perspectives that transform listeners into informed insiders of the world’s most iconic cycling race.