THEMOVE Podcast Episode Summary: Tour de France Stage 21 Preview | Outcomes Release Date: July 26, 2025

In this episode of THEMOVE, hosts Spencer Martin and Johan Brunil delve into an in-depth preview of Stage 21 of the Tour de France. This final stage, extending over 132 kilometers, transitions from the outskirts of Paris into the heart of the city, featuring multiple laps on the iconic Champs-Élysées and introducing the challenging Olympic lap up Montmartre’s Butte. The stage culminates with a descent that includes cobblestone sections, adding an unpredictable element to the race's conclusion.

Stage Overview and Initial Predictions

Spencer Martin opens the discussion by outlining the complexities of Stage 21:

"[00:50] Spencer Martin: Welcome back to Outcomes... The final stage is 132 kilometers, goes from the outskirts of Paris into Paris. 2, 3 laps on the traditional circuit on the Champs Elysees. And then they mix things up. They do the Olympic lap up the Butte Montmartre..."

Both hosts acknowledge the uncertainties surrounding the stage, particularly given its unique mixture of traditional sprints and challenging climbs that differentiate it from typical Champs-Élysées finales.

Favorite Analysis: Tadej Pogačar

A significant portion of the discussion centers on Tadej Pogačar, the current yellow jersey holder and favorite to win the stage:

"[05:11] Spencer Martin: ...why would he have to attack? He has four, four and a half minutes or four minutes 20 for tomorrow..."

"[05:24] Johan Brunil: ...he's had it with this year's Tour de France... he was super strong in the first two weeks..."

The hosts express skepticism about Pogačar securing the stage victory, citing his controlled performance in the Alps and questioning his motivation to attack in the final stage. They suggest that while Pogačar remains a strong contender, the likelihood of him overcoming the strategic team efforts to reel him in makes his stage win less certain.

Primary Contenders: Jonathan Milan and Kaden Groves

Spencer and Johan evaluate other potential winners, focusing on sprinters like Jonathan Milan and Kaden Groves:

"[03:37] Spencer Martin: ...I think Jonathan, I don't think he wins. I think Kaden Groves on Alpecin decoinc gets a second straight stage win plus 1400..."

"[04:43] Johan Brunil: ...but, you know, he's in great shape. He has definitely... if there's one sprinter we can say will make it over there, it's Groves."

Jonathan Milan is highlighted for his sprinting prowess, although Johan Brunil remains more optimistic about Kaden Groves leveraging his team's strength to secure consecutive stage wins. The discussion underscores the tactical dynamics of the final stage, where team control and sprint capabilities become pivotal.

Wild Card Picks: Wout Van Aert and Jonathan Narvaez

The conversation shifts to potential dark horses who could surprise observers:

"[08:21] Johan Brunil: ...I saw a quote from him saying... So I think that Wout can win from a small group..."

"[09:59] Spencer Martin: ...teammate of the winner of the race, Jonathan Narvaez. Plus 2,900..."

Wout Van Aert emerges as a favored wild card due to his versatility and previous successes on the Champs-Élysées. However, Spencer Martin opts for Jonathan Narvaez, citing his sprinting history and tactical positioning within his team as advantageous factors that could lead to an unexpected victory.

Head-to-Head Betting Odds

The hosts transition into a segment discussing betting odds, comparing various contenders:

"[13:40] Spencer Martin: All right, Johan, we're back. First head to head, this is FanDuel in the U.S. Kaden Groves, minus 126 versus Wout Vanart, minus 108."

They analyze the betting capabilities of each rider, weighing the probabilities and potential rewards. This segment offers listeners an insight into the strategic considerations behind betting on the final stage.

Final Thoughts and Closing Predictions

As the episode nears its conclusion, Spencer and Johan summarize their predictions and reiterate their stance on the favorite:

"[16:17] Johan Brunil: Well, you can't bet on Pogačar anymore to win... It's like minus 30,000 or something."

They reaffirm their skepticism about Pogačar’s stage win, emphasizing the high odds and the practical challenges he would face in securing the victory on this stage. Instead, attention remains on sprinters and strategic dark horses who possess both the speed and tactical support to triumph in the final moments of the Tour de France.

Key Takeaways

• Stage Complexity: The final stage's combination of sprint laps and the Montmartre climb introduces unique challenges that could disrupt typical racing dynamics.

• Pogačar’s Position: While Pogačar remains the overall race leader, his chances of winning the final stage are questionable due to strategic team control and the demanding nature of the course.

• Sprinter Spotlight: Jonathan Milan and Kaden Groves are strong contenders for the stage win, leveraging their sprint capabilities and team support.

• Wild Cards: Wout Van Aert and Jonathan Narvaez present potential surprises, with abilities to capitalize on late-stage dynamics and tactical opportunities.

• Betting Insights: The discussion provides valuable perspectives for bettors, highlighting favored riders and the reasoning behind their odds.

This episode of THEMOVE offers a comprehensive and analytical preview of the concluding stage of the Tour de France, providing listeners with nuanced insights into rider performances, strategic dynamics, and betting strategies. Whether you're a seasoned cycling enthusiast or a casual fan, Spencer Martin and Johan Brunil's expert analysis equips you with a deeper understanding of what to expect as the Tour de France draws to its exhilarating finale.