Tour de France Stage 21 Preview | OŪTCOMES

Summary

THEMOVE Podcast Episode Summary: Tour de France Stage 21 Preview | Outcomes Release Date: July 26, 2025

In this episode of THEMOVE, hosts Spencer Martin and Johan Brunil delve into an in-depth preview of Stage 21 of the Tour de France. This final stage, extending over 132 kilometers, transitions from the outskirts of Paris into the heart of the city, featuring multiple laps on the iconic Champs-Élysées and introducing the challenging Olympic lap up Montmartre’s Butte. The stage culminates with a descent that includes cobblestone sections, adding an unpredictable element to the race's conclusion.

Stage Overview and Initial Predictions

Spencer Martin opens the discussion by outlining the complexities of Stage 21:

"[00:50] Spencer Martin: Welcome back to Outcomes... The final stage is 132 kilometers, goes from the outskirts of Paris into Paris. 2, 3 laps on the traditional circuit on the Champs Elysees. And then they mix things up. They do the Olympic lap up the Butte Montmartre..."

Both hosts acknowledge the uncertainties surrounding the stage, particularly given its unique mixture of traditional sprints and challenging climbs that differentiate it from typical Champs-Élysées finales.

Favorite Analysis: Tadej Pogačar

A significant portion of the discussion centers on Tadej Pogačar, the current yellow jersey holder and favorite to win the stage:

"[05:11] Spencer Martin: ...why would he have to attack? He has four, four and a half minutes or four minutes 20 for tomorrow..."

"[05:24] Johan Brunil: ...he's had it with this year's Tour de France... he was super strong in the first two weeks..."

The hosts express skepticism about Pogačar securing the stage victory, citing his controlled performance in the Alps and questioning his motivation to attack in the final stage. They suggest that while Pogačar remains a strong contender, the likelihood of him overcoming the strategic team efforts to reel him in makes his stage win less certain.

Primary Contenders: Jonathan Milan and Kaden Groves

Spencer and Johan evaluate other potential winners, focusing on sprinters like Jonathan Milan and Kaden Groves:

"[03:37] Spencer Martin: ...I think Jonathan, I don't think he wins. I think Kaden Groves on Alpecin decoinc gets a second straight stage win plus 1400..."

"[04:43] Johan Brunil: ...but, you know, he's in great shape. He has definitely... if there's one sprinter we can say will make it over there, it's Groves."

Jonathan Milan is highlighted for his sprinting prowess, although Johan Brunil remains more optimistic about Kaden Groves leveraging his team's strength to secure consecutive stage wins. The discussion underscores the tactical dynamics of the final stage, where team control and sprint capabilities become pivotal.

Wild Card Picks: Wout Van Aert and Jonathan Narvaez

The conversation shifts to potential dark horses who could surprise observers:

"[08:21] Johan Brunil: ...I saw a quote from him saying... So I think that Wout can win from a small group..."

"[09:59] Spencer Martin: ...teammate of the winner of the race, Jonathan Narvaez. Plus 2,900..."

Wout Van Aert emerges as a favored wild card due to his versatility and previous successes on the Champs-Élysées. However, Spencer Martin opts for Jonathan Narvaez, citing his sprinting history and tactical positioning within his team as advantageous factors that could lead to an unexpected victory.

Head-to-Head Betting Odds

The hosts transition into a segment discussing betting odds, comparing various contenders:

"[13:40] Spencer Martin: All right, Johan, we're back. First head to head, this is FanDuel in the U.S. Kaden Groves, minus 126 versus Wout Vanart, minus 108."

They analyze the betting capabilities of each rider, weighing the probabilities and potential rewards. This segment offers listeners an insight into the strategic considerations behind betting on the final stage.

Final Thoughts and Closing Predictions

As the episode nears its conclusion, Spencer and Johan summarize their predictions and reiterate their stance on the favorite:

"[16:17] Johan Brunil: Well, you can't bet on Pogačar anymore to win... It's like minus 30,000 or something."

They reaffirm their skepticism about Pogačar’s stage win, emphasizing the high odds and the practical challenges he would face in securing the victory on this stage. Instead, attention remains on sprinters and strategic dark horses who possess both the speed and tactical support to triumph in the final moments of the Tour de France.

Key Takeaways

• Stage Complexity: The final stage's combination of sprint laps and the Montmartre climb introduces unique challenges that could disrupt typical racing dynamics.

• Pogačar’s Position: While Pogačar remains the overall race leader, his chances of winning the final stage are questionable due to strategic team control and the demanding nature of the course.

• Sprinter Spotlight: Jonathan Milan and Kaden Groves are strong contenders for the stage win, leveraging their sprint capabilities and team support.

• Wild Cards: Wout Van Aert and Jonathan Narvaez present potential surprises, with abilities to capitalize on late-stage dynamics and tactical opportunities.

• Betting Insights: The discussion provides valuable perspectives for bettors, highlighting favored riders and the reasoning behind their odds.

This episode of THEMOVE offers a comprehensive and analytical preview of the concluding stage of the Tour de France, providing listeners with nuanced insights into rider performances, strategic dynamics, and betting strategies. Whether you're a seasoned cycling enthusiast or a casual fan, Spencer Martin and Johan Brunil's expert analysis equips you with a deeper understanding of what to expect as the Tour de France draws to its exhilarating finale.

Transcript

[Spencer Martin]

We're not falling for the Pagaccio trap again. I know he's the favorite. Plus 550. I just don't see it after what we've seen in the Alps, you know.

[Johan Brunil]

No, I don't see it either. I think, I think he's happy to be, to get to Paris. It looks like he's had it with this year's Tour de France. You know, he's, he was super strong in the first two weeks. Last week, you could say, well, you know, he's been. People say, you know, he's worse and I don't think he's that much worse. He's controlling and, you know, why would he have to attack? He has four, four and a half minutes or four minutes 20.

[Spencer Martin]

Hi, I'm Spencer Martin along with Johan Brunil, and this is Outcomes.

[Podcast Announcer]

Outcomes is for informational entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this podcast should be considered financial advice. Please gamble responsibly and if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, seek help from a professional resource. Hosts and guests may have financial interests in the bets discussed. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Everybody.

[Spencer Martin]

Welcome back to Outcomes. I'm Spencer Martin. I'm here with Johan Berniel. We are predicting stage 21 of the Tour de France. The final stage 132 kilomet, goes from the outskirts of Paris into Paris. 2, 3 laps on the traditional circuit on the Champs Elysees. And then they mix things up. They get. They do the Olympic lap up the Butte Montmartre. I guess it's two laps of that, but three passes of the climb, they descend down. It's about a four and a half kilometer descent, cobbled partially, I believe, if I remember correctly, down to finish back on the Champs. A little unknown about how this is going to play out. We haven't seen this before, but I'll list off the odds and then we'll get our take on who's going to win and how it's going to play out. The favorite, Tady Pagacha. The yellow jersey. We haven't seen that in a minute.

[Listener]

A yellow jersey.

[Spencer Martin]

Winning in Paris at plus 550.

[Listener]

Jonathan Milan, plus 600W plus 850, Kaden Groves, plus 1400.

[Spencer Martin]

Jordy Mayos, plus 1600. Tim earlier, plus 2000. It goes on and on. We'll call him out when we need to. And again, if you don't know what I just said, if that's confusing, but you want to bet, make sure to check out our partner. Nextbets nxtbets.com bet.com BET outcomes. It shows you exactly where you can bet, where you live and the best signup bonuses as well as the best parlays and bets on each book. Johan, how does this play out and who wins it?

[Johan Brunil]

Yeah, it's a bit different, as usual. Right, Spencer? So as you said, first the, the traditional laps on the Champs Elysees, three of them and then three times up Montmartre. What I think is, of course it's not a straightforward sprint stage as we almost are guaranteed when it's the normal lapse on the, on the Champs Elysees. This is different. But people need to understand that this has nothing to do with the lap we saw in the Olympic Games. It's a different race. It's a stage race. Everybody has less punch now. So, you know, we're not going to see an attack like we saw, for example, from Matthew van der Poel exploding on Mo Marft and only Walt van Aert able to follow him. First of all, van der Poel is not here, but at this point in the Tour nobody can do that anymore. And I also think that sprinters or will be able to make it over it or come back. So I think it's a possible bunch print or a reduced bunch print. But I think that Jonathan Milan can make it over there and that he can win the stage. He's plus 800. Would be amazing for him to finish it off in the green jersey. So my pick for the stage is Jonathan Milan.

[Spencer Martin]

I kind of agree with you, Johan. I'm not convinced. This is going to be some amazing Olympic style homage. As you said. That was just. It was like 80 riders in that race too. And it was super long. No teams, no trade teams. It's just a really different race. Little trek their best. I think their best chance of winning this stage is having their super strong team control it. And John Balon is a big strong guy who can handle climbs. I don't think 1k at 5% has him shaking in his boots. And I think if he has a full team with them, they can guide him right down. But I think Jonathan, I don't think he wins. I think Kaden groves on Alpecin. Decoinnick gets a second straight stage win plus 1400. Pretty incredible odds for a writer that just won. I mean you would say, well, maybe he like, you know, he's overcome with emotion, he takes his foot off the gas, but that's not really how he or his team operates. He tends to win in clusters and Grand Tours. That team is never Satisfied they will still be going for the stage win tomorrow. I like groves at plus 14, 1400.

[Guest]

Good pick, good pick.

[Johan Brunil]

He did spend a lot of energy today, we have to say, you know, so that could be, that could be a factor tomorrow.

[Spencer Martin]

He's opened up.

[Guest]

Yeah.

[Johan Brunil]

Where, where Jonathan Milan was in the Groupetto all day. That's a bit of a, you know, a disadvantage for Groves, but, you know, he's in great shape. He has definitely. If, listen, if there's one sprinter we can say, if all the sprinters are here, if there's one sprinter we can say he will make, make it over there. It's game, Grove. So I, I, I can back you up on that one.

[Spencer Martin]

And I don't, I think, I don't think either of us are going for this. We're not falling for the Pagacha trap again. I know he's the favorite. Plus 550. I just don't see it after what we've seen in the Alps, you know.

[Johan Brunil]

No, I don't see it either. I think, I think he's happy to be, to get to Paris. It looks like he's had it with this year's Tour de France. You know, he was super strong in the first two weeks. Last week you could say. Well, you know, he's been, People say, yeah, you know, he's, he's worse and I don't think he's that much worse. He's controlling and, you know, why would he have to attack? He has four, four and a half minutes or four minutes 20 for tomorrow, Spencer. I mean, there will only be one possibility for him is if he really says, okay, you know, out of pride for my, you know, for my ego, I going to win this in the yellow jersey. But the question is how.

[Guest]

Yeah, right.

[Johan Brunil]

He can get away on, on, but he know not. But there's teams and they're going to reel him in, you know, he can't make it all the way from, from the, from the Montmar to the, how much, how far is it from Muerter to the finish?

[Spencer Martin]

It says here it's six kilometers.

[Johan Brunil]

Okay. Which, six kilometers. Not bad. But still. Yeah, they're not gonna be, they're gonna, not gonna be 30 seconds behind, you know, on the top he's gonna have, you know, five, 10 seconds max. And in Paris, man, these avenues are wide and you can get organized, you know.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, I pre rode this like a true professional on, on a city bike, so I'm sure that's exactly how they're gonna come down. Same, same descent yeah, but I, I agree. I mean, what do we see at San Ramo? Like if he can't get away in the Poggio, how's he getting away on this thing? I just.

[Johan Brunil]

Yeah, okay.

[Guest]

Yeah, yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

I don't know if I. Because then who, and then who's in that group? That's.

[Johan Brunil]

Well, Jonas is going to be close.

[Guest]

Yeah.

[Johan Brunil]

If, if Bagacha attacks. So then we're going to see what we're going to see. Jonas is going to sit on, I mean, not going to pull it. Let's say, let's say if Bogacher attacks and Jonas can. Yeah, I mean it's going to be difficult. The thing is, Spencer, if, if this would be, this would be a one day race or in the first week I would say, you know what, maybe. But in week three, there's no more punch, there's no more like firepower. It's all based on just pure condition. And they're diesels, you know, they don't have that acceleration anymore.

[Guest]

Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

I mean, and as you said about Milan and groves like Pagatra has been climbing the alps at over 6 watts per kilo and a lot of the people he's going against for the stageman have been in the groupetto. So it's not exactly.

[Johan Brunil]

We're actually. Sometimes you also have to do close to 5 watts per kilo to make it to the finish.

[Spencer Martin]

It actually is crazy. Like, yeah, Milan finished 24 minutes back yesterday, which sounds really far back. It's actually not that far on a stage like that.

[Guest]

Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

Like he's climbing very fast.

[Guest]

Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

So if it's not your sprinter Milan, and it's not Pagachar, who's your wild card pick?

[Johan Brunil]

I'm going to go for my dear love, beloved Walt Van Aert. You know, it's, I'm a bit, I mean, I'm a bit in doubt because I haven't seen the legs of Walt Van Aert that we usually see. Also today, you know, he tried and he, he tries but it's like he doesn't have the legs. But you know, I saw a quote from him saying, yeah, you know, you know, tomorrow would be an opportunity that he just hopes that Pogacar doesn't go for it. So it must be that he has a mission for tomorrow. And I think that wout can win from a small group, you know, and he's won already before on the Champs Elysees. He was, it was a different world von Art. He was in great shape. That was the year that he won the Mountain stage on Avantou, the time trial and on Champs Elysees. But I'm going to pick him. He's plus 700 on unibet, actually plus 850 on.

[Spencer Martin]

Fanduel. So if you like what Van Art, check them out on NextBets. Use the nxtbets.com betoutcomes to go to fanduel and bet on him. Pretty good price. I'm gonna go. I'm not falling for the Van Art trap. I want to pick him. I'm not going to pick him. It's funny that you picked Van Art because teammate of second place in the gc. I'm going to go teammate of the winner of the race, Jonathan Narvaez. Plus 2,900. This has gotten our vice written all over it. One of the only riders who has out sprinted Pugachar in a reduced similar not exactly like this stage, but stage one of the Gird Italia last year.

[Johan Brunil]

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

[Listener]

So he's.

[Spencer Martin]

The guy's fast.

[Listener]

He's worked hard.

[Spencer Martin]

I think, I mean who. I'm not inside the mind of Tadi Pagachar, but he might think, let's, let's try to get one for one of these teammates who worked very hard. So I'm going to go Navias at + 29, 2900.

[Johan Brunil]

That's a good wild card, man. That's a good wild card. I saw images from him when he was on Ineos still. I don't know if it was E3, E3 or Kurne. And he was the only guy who could follow Matthew von der Poel on one of those steep climbs in Flanders. And they rode together for quite a bit, just the two of them.

[Spencer Martin]

And he was before us.

[Johan Brunil]

Jonathan Narvaeis was, was better known, you know.

[Guest]

Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

He was their best classics writer his last year on Ineos like by a long shot.

[Guest]

Yeah, yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

And he got selected to the Olympics over Carapaz and Lance was like, who the heck is this guy?

[Johan Brunil]

Why is he getting selected?

[Spencer Martin]

It's like, well, he's pretty good actually.

[Listener]

Well, let's take a quick break and.

[Spencer Martin]

We'Ll come back with some head to heads.

[Listener]

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[Spencer Martin]

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[Spencer Martin]

All right, Johan, we're back. First head to head, this is FanDuel in the U.S. kaden Groves, minus 126 versus Wout Vanart, minus 108.

[Johan Brunil]

I think Walt Vanart doesn't get dropped on this, man. There's no way.

[Spencer Martin]

Okay, Jonathan Milan minus 220 versus Jordy Mayo, plus 162. That's kind of an interesting one.

[Guest]

Yeah.

[Johan Brunil]

Jordy Mears was close the other day also. You know, like when, when, when there was the crash with 1k to go. He was second, right?

[Guest]

Yeah.

[Johan Brunil]

Behind Milan.

[Guest]

Yeah.

[Johan Brunil]

But I mean, I picked Milan already for the win, so it is head to head. However, I mean, Milan is negative. How much?

[Spencer Martin]

220. This is a good hedge too, if you pick Milan.

[Johan Brunil]

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

It's not impossible that Maze doesn't win here. He's won in Paris before. Different finish, obviously, but he's, he's a magician. Final Day magician. Casper Askren, -116. Jonas Aberhenson -116.

[Johan Brunil]

I haven't seen him. Was Casper Algren in the break today at some point?

[Spencer Martin]

He was believe.

[Johan Brunil]

Yeah, that the first time I saw him in this Tour.

[Spencer Martin]

Not a good sign. It's good.

[Johan Brunil]

I mean, there's other riders. I didn't even know they were in the Tour. Ab Hamsel.

[Spencer Martin]

Okay, so next one is arno de. Minus 140 versus binium gai plus 106B. All right, I like that. I mean, I don't think he's going to win tomorrow, but he is coming on kind of strong here, especially after that crash.

[Johan Brunil]

Yeah, I think Arnault looks, he look. I mean, can't pass anything, put anything past him, but he's. He looks, he looks spent. He looks empty.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, I mean, he was dropped like he was by himself today for a while.

[Guest]

Okay.

[Spencer Martin]

Tobias Lund Anderson minus 172 versus Jake Stewart plus 126.

[Johan Brunil]

Dubai's Loot.

[Spencer Martin]

All right, he got third.

[Listener]

Did you see?

[Spencer Martin]

He got third in one of these stages.

[Guest]

Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

So that's, that's not easy to do. All right, well, that's it, Johan. Anything else? Is there a last episode of the Tour, if you can believe it?

[Johan Brunil]

Well, you can't bet on Pogacho anymore to win. Right. So I think it yesterday to win the Tour.

[Spencer Martin]

I mean, it was like minus 30,000 or something. Potentially not even worth it actually, if you think about the probability of him breaking his collarbone or something.

[Guest]

Yeah. Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

And we will be back. I hope I'm not breaking news to you. We're going to do an outcomes before the vta and then we'll be back for daily the move pluses during the vta. So if you've enjoyed this, this, these episodes, we are back for the VTA sp.

[Johan Brunil]

Okay, Spencer, thanks.

[Guest]

All right.

[Spencer Martin]

Thank you, Johan, and we will talk soon.