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Tour de France Stage 5 Preview | OŪTCOMES
00:14:50
Johan Bruyneel and Spencer Martin reveal their picks for tomorrow's Stage 5 of the Tour de France. Listen in to see how the duo thinks the action will play out, who will come out on top, and which riders present the best betting value. Use our special...
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- [00:00]
A
Well, first of all, Spencer, before we get into this, congrats. Congrats to you. Because you have three wins in a row or three wins at least out of four stages, right?
- [00:11]
B
Yeah, three out of four. Hi, I'm Spencer Martin along with Johan Berniel, and this is Outcomes. Outcomes is for informational entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this podcast should be considered financial advice. Please gamble responsibly, and if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, seek help from a professional resource. Host and guests may have financial interests in the bets discussed. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Everybody. Welcome back to Outcomes. I'm Spencer Martin. I'm here with Johan Berniel predicting stage five of the Tour de France. A 33 kilometer time trial starts and finish in the same place, so we don't have to worry about wind picking up coming down. But we will break down everything you need to know and get Johan's take on who's going to win. I'll list off the odds, then we'll get into it. And if you're listening to this and you're saying, wow, I would love to bet, this sounds so fascinating, but I don't know how to do it. Well, don't worry. We have a partner this year for this tour. It's NextBets. That's nxtbets.com and if you go to nxtbets.com betoutcomes it will show you exactly where you can bet where you live, because the rules are different all over the world and even all over each state of the United States. So go to nxtbets.com BET outcomes and you'll see where you can bet. And they'll give you. They'll redirect you to the best signup bonuses on each of the books that are available in your area. So make sure you check that out before you bet and make sure to bet responsibly. Remco having to pull the heavy, heavy favorite at minus 380. That's the best price we could find. It's a FanDuel. Jonas Verd plus 750. Tad Pagatr plus 1100. Eduardo Aini, plus 2900. I guess Johan, you find him at plus 3300. So go, go get that price if you can. W beart at plus 5,000. Mato Jorgenson, plus 5,500. I don't even think. And Primos Roglich, Olympic time trial champion just a few years ago, plus 5,500. And I don't even think we need to keep reading. Johan I assume we know how this is going to play out. No breakaway. But who is going to win this according to you?
- [02:06]
A
Yeah. Well, first of all, Spencer, before we get into this, congrats. Congrats to you because you have three wins in a row in or three wins at least out of four stages, right?
- [02:18]
B
Yeah, three out of four, but that's pretty congrats. But stocking, before we recorded we, we basically coin flipped on stage two who got Vanderpoel, who got Pugachar and then I, we flipped it for the last stage. So good fortune there perhaps. But yeah, you're right, it's a team eff of us.
- [02:38]
A
It's team we do. It's team we do. Who got three out of four? Yeah, yeah. Listen, for, for tomorrow, I think it's very simple. Remco is going to win the time trial unless he crashes. Unless he crashes, which is also always. I mean it's, it doesn't look like it's super technical but, but yeah, he's the best time trialist in the world several years in a row. On top of that, the biggest challenger, people, Ghana is out of the race on stage one already. So yeah, I can't see anybody beating Remco. Even the pool tomorrow, 33km for specialists. Not super difficult, not super technical. It's all about power and aerodynamics and that's what remco has. So minus 380, it's not great. But still he's winning this tomorrow.
- [03:30]
B
Yeah, I mean just to go back to the most recent data point, we have criterium dud stage 4, 17 km. So actually not that time trial was not as good for him as the one we're going to see. And he won by 21 seconds over Jonas Finard. Yeah, it's, it's hard to argue with that to the point and the implied probability here is 79%. So if you think he has a greater than 79% chance of winning, you should take him at minus 380. I do. So it's our first double up this tour. I'm also going Rimco Evan Poll. We're not going to send people on a wild juice, wild goose chase. But that does mean we kind of have an interesting situation with our wild cards because you have riders like ty looming at plus 1100. Think about that. Like Tada Pagacha who won the Tour de France at 21 years old in a time trial is plus 1100 in this time trial. That's how good Evan a pole is. I guess we should note that Due to some creative. I mean, UAE is really on top of it this year. I wonder if they knew that even if Pagatro won today that he wouldn't take yellow if Interpol finished second. So Pagacha gets to race in his fast skin suit.
- [04:38]
A
No, he's. No, he's not. No, no. He's racing in polka dots.
- [04:44]
B
Oh, no, he's in the polka dot because he was too good on the final few climbs.
- [04:49]
A
Yeah, that's. Yeah, yeah. You know, we debated about this yesterday. Right. And also with Bradley in our show that, you know, it was, it could be one of the reasons, you know, because they want to race in their own skin suit and. Yeah, I mean, if you look at the tactics of today, they, they, they knew that Bogacha had to attack on the last climb and that most likely he was going to get first on top. So that's automatically two or three points. I don't remember how many. So that's automatically puts him in the, in the lead. So, yeah, the way I'm thinking, or we've been thinking about him wanting to be out of the Polkadot jersey, there's two scenarios. So there's. One is that he wanted Tim Wellens to have personal success and be on the podium, which is possible. The more recent story now is that, and this is actually mind blowing if you think about it, that he was almost sure he was going to win, win number 100 and he wanted to win in the rainbow jersey, which is mind blowing if you think about that. You know, it's not just. They're not just trying to win the race. They're predicting the scenario of how they want to win. That's actually. Yeah, yeah.
- [06:10]
B
It's like scary. It freaks me out and I'm not even racing against him, but that is unbelievable. Well, I, I think we're pretty sure Evanopole is going to win, but weird stuff does happen, you know, like, I actually, frankly don't even think a flat. I think he could survive a flat. I think they could get him another bike and he'd get going quick enough. He did look really good, as George said on the move. Chasing, chasing them down. I guess he got dropped. The other, other side of the argument would be, well, he rode the climb easier than Pagachar and Vidgard, but, you know, he's in that arrow position. He looks really good.
- [06:43]
A
Yeah.
- [06:43]
B
When he's on his terrain, he wrote.
- [06:45]
A
The climb full gas to his possibilities, you know. No, but he was strong in the end. He, he pays back. But I Think overall, you know, it's just. He's in good form, for sure. I think he's better than Dauphine in better shape, and. And he's the best time protest. So he's, you know, if. If I have to. If. I mean. And that's. That's like stretching it really far. But wild card option. An interesting wild card option, and that would, you know, imply that maybe Remco has somewhat of a problem or. We also have a change in the wind conditions, and that's somebody who goes early. A good time class pressure goes early. Like we saw, for example, in the Giro and Don Ho one that happened, there were changes in the wind conditions, and, you know, it was dry, and then it started to rain. So an interesting option. If we have to pick a wild card, I would go with Eduardo Afini. You know, he's the European champion time crow. He's been. He's shown that he's really, really strong, and on stage one, he was impressive. So he must have incredible legs. I think he was second or third in that time trial also in the. In the Giro. So him going early, setting a fast, fast tempo, and then having a change in the situation with the wind could be an option for. To have him as a wild card, especially at plus 3,300.
- [08:18]
B
Look.
- [08:18]
A
Yeah.
- [08:19]
B
The most recent TTS he's done, he did the Giro. We got fourth and one and fifth in the other.
- [08:23]
A
Okay.
- [08:24]
B
I do think. Yeah, though, because he starts at 1:49pm he has minute men in front of him. Pagachar and Remco won't have that. They have four minutes in between riders, so they won't pass anybody. But a Feeney will be passing people. We saw this with Ghana, I believe, at the Giro. Got this, like, because you have a team car, you might have a TV moto bike, and you have the person. So you can get a little bit of draft there when you pass. Every time you pass someone, he might pass three people.
- [08:51]
A
Yeah. And also, plus you have the visual, you know, the mental aspect of, you know, chasing someone and passing someone is not to be overlooked.
- [09:00]
B
The wind is, let's say, four miles an hour for the Americans, and then nine miles when Afeni goes, and then supposed to be nine miles an hour when the favorites go.
- [09:10]
A
That's considerable. That's considerable.
- [09:12]
B
Yeah. This kind of protects us from feeling really silly. Right. Like, if Afeni wins and you're like, we didn't see that coming. That's how we felt with Dan Ul. So I don't. I don't dislike this and also it's. We don't even know if this happens anymore but he's on Visma you'd imagine. Well they maybe they want reference points for Jonas vinegard so they're going to have him go really hard. It kind of seems like people just go hard in time trials whenever they feel like it. Now and then I hear the teams of software that you put in the course and then it tells you what wattage to like how hard to go on each specific part of the course and it kind of maybe takes away the need to do that as much. But yeah, I think, I think he'll go hard but I'm going to go for my wild card just so we don't feel real, real silly. Tadipogachar at + 1100 like you're getting a guy that's a pretty good time trials. If something happens to Evan a pole. I mean I don't think like I think the guys in the move are saying well Jonas could, could win the TT tomorrow but and I kind of agree with him in, in a vacuum but. And he looked. You sent this video clip of Pagacha giving his post race interview and then Jonas is like looked wrecked. Yeah, I think Pagacha is just stronger at the moment in that.
- [10:22]
A
For the moment.
- [10:23]
B
Yeah, yeah. That will come out in a 33km.
- [10:27]
A
Plus I think you know, I mean it's, this is, this is about power and aerodynamics. Today has for the moment he has more power than, than Jonas. Yeah. You know I don't know what happened in the Dauphine. What, what was the problem there? You know his equipment normally should be, you know, top range. They said you know there was an issue with the pacing strategy. Uh but he did, he didn't do a bad time draw. He was still fourth in the DT.
- [10:59]
B
He's just a little off. Like lost 48 seconds to Remco. And someone you know, a listener did send in Jim, thank you sent like some medical studies on you do you can suffer issues when you come down from altitude to race and it tends to happen right about the amount of time that Picacho did that time trial. So it could have been something to do with that and just it wasn't terrible. Just wasn't at his best.
- [11:22]
A
Yeah.
- [11:22]
B
But I'm still picking him for my wild card tomorrow.
- [11:24]
A
Okay, that's a good wild card.
- [11:27]
B
Well let's take a quick ad break and then we're going to have you run through some head to heads. You're on fire with these head to Heads. You had Skelmosa over Guillaume Martin, which looks obvious in retrospect. It's funny it was even offered. But we will be right back to talk about those. So, Johan, the first head to head is on FanDuel in the US Joelameda, minus 310 versus Florian Lipowitz, plus 220.
- [11:47]
A
I'll make that.
- [11:48]
B
I. I agree. Primus Raglich, minus 108 versus Mateo Jorgensen, minus 126. You can pass if you don't like him. You think I'm gonna. Yeah. Jorgensen looks incredible at this so far. Yeah, it's kind of. Yeah. The undiscussed story so far. Tate Picachar, minus 126. Jonas Eunice Vinegar, minus 108. Okay. Kevin Vauclan, minus 116 versus Matthew Vanderpoel, minus 116. Is Vanderpoel gonna go hard in this?
- [12:26]
A
Yeah, yeah. He's gonna go hard to try to keep yellow. No, no, no, no, no. But he's gonna honor the jersey. He's gonna. He's gonna go hard.
- [12:36]
B
Yeah.
- [12:37]
A
I mean, he should not go hard and save himself for stage seven, you know, but. Yeah.
- [12:47]
B
Yeah. White jersey wear, by the way, Eduardo Afini, minus 220 versus Wout Bernard, plus 162. Okay. I mean, because Wild Bernard's gonna go hard, but. Right.
- [13:08]
A
We have to think so. I personally think it's not. It's not necessary. You know, it's. It's. I know it's not. It's not a good plan, but they don't care what I think.
- [13:21]
B
Everyone goes hard in time trials now. I don't. They're trying to respect the race.
- [13:25]
A
Yes. There's some people, some experts on the Internet who say that sometimes they have to go hard, otherwise they detrain or they untrained themselves.
- [13:36]
B
I actually been talking about this.
- [13:39]
A
That's complete. By the way, what did Bradley say?
- [13:43]
B
Well, it's super interesting because he had a trainer from outside of cycling that wanted him to do like six hours the day after Paris, winning Paris, because he's like, you're detraining in this race. And then he had another trainer, Shane Sutton, who knows a thing, a thing or two about a thing or two, who said, no, you can't do that because other trainer. You're not taking into account like the emotional and mental and physical stress of just being in a race. Yeah. So when you look at it from just the numbers. Yeah, maybe it seems like that, but that's not exactly how it works in real life. Well, Johan, anything else on this stage, that's it.
- [14:20]
A
Remco is winning tomorrow. I can guarantee you that.
- [14:24]
B
Well, everyone gamble responsibly. But that. That does seem to be the likely outcome. I do agree with you. All right, well, thank you, Johan, and we will talk tomorrow.
- [14:35]
A
Okay, thanks.
- [14:36]
B
All right, bye.