THEMOVE Podcast — Vuelta a España Stage 11 Analysis & Stage 12 Preview
Host: Spencer Martin & Johan Bruyneel (subbing for Lance Armstrong)
Episode Date: September 3, 2025

Episode Overview

The main focus of this episode is a deep-dive analysis of Stage 11 of the Vuelta a España, which was dramatically disrupted due to large-scale protests at the finish line in Bilbao. Spencer Martin and Johan Bruyneel (regular THEMOVE co-host and veteran cycling director) unpack how organizers' on-the-fly decision to neutralize the finish shaped the overall race, discuss the implications of this growing protest movement, and preview the crucial Stage 12—including detailed betting picks. Along the way, they examine Tom Pidcock’s breakthrough as a Grand Tour GC contender, Visma’s tactical choices, UAE’s mixed messages, and the escalating risk to race integrity posed by the current protest wave.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Stage 11: Race Disrupted by Protests

• Neutralization Decision ([00:00]–[03:00])
  • Due to protests blocking the Bilbao finish, organizers took times at the 3km-to-go mark, canceling official stage results.
  • “There was too many protesters at the finish line in Bilbao. So they made an on-the-road, on-the-fly decision to take the times 3km from the finish line, which is kind of the outskirts of Bilbao.” (Spencer, [00:17])
• Protest Impact
  • Both hosts agree the decision, though disappointing, was correct for safety and race integrity.
  • “[Protesters] got the race to be canceled. So they're not going to stop. I think it was the right call. It became too, too risky at the finish line.” (Johan, [03:11])
• Growing activism and race vulnerability
  • Both are concerned protests will continue, noting cycling's unique public accessibility as making it especially vulnerable.

2. GC Battle: Tom Pidcock’s Big Day & Team Tactics

• Pidcock emerges as a real contender ([00:00]–[09:00])
  • Both hosts admit they've been skeptical of Tom Pidcock's long-term GC potential, but Stage 11 marks a breakthrough.
  • “This might have been the ride, at least of his road career... This was an announcement that, like, this guy is a GC rider, not just physically, but mentally.” (Spencer, [00:07])
  • Notably, Pidcock dropped Jonas Vingegaard on the final climb: “He felt great on that last climb, accelerated and was able to drop Jonas Vingegaard twice in one kilometer, which is true. It hasn't happened a lot. Pogacar has done it. Not many other riders have done it.” (Johan, [05:31])
• GC Standings Update
  • Jonas Vingegaard in red, Joao Almeida second (+0:50), Pidcock third (+0:56).
  • Jensen: “What we learned from the stage: Vingegaard's pretty good, Pidcock's pretty good. Almeida, Jorgenson, Jai Hindley… Hindley is looking pretty good right now.” (Spencer, [13:00])
• Visma’s All-In Strategy & UAE’s Question Marks
  • Visma worked all day to control the race for Jonas’s birthday, but “burned the team and…lost time to a GC rider within a minute of us.” (Spencer, [07:29])
  • Both recognize Visma’s depth and strength, but question whether stage hunting is worth such costs.
  • UAE’s attacks are described as “scattershot”: “I don't understand the Solaire move. That was baffling... It just feels a little scattershot. They're not all singing from the same hymn sheet.” (Spencer, [11:57])
• Jonas’s Form Under Scrutiny
  • Not at his absolute best: “I think it's safe to say Jonas Vinegard is not putting out career best power numbers.” (Spencer, [09:04])

3. The Protest Movement: Racing on a Knife-Edge

• Growing Threat to Race Continuity ([16:00]–[23:00])
  • Protesters clearly see that disruption works and will likely repeat actions. “They got heard and seen and something came up from their protest.” (Johan, [22:13])
  • Organizers and the UCI have little recourse, as increasing police presence only goes so far; cycling’s open-road nature makes it hard to police.
  • “If they're unfurling banners on the steepest climbs and the riders can't get through, like we might just not be able to have a GC race here or a race of any kind.” (Spencer, [18:44])
• Israel Premier Tech Team Situation
  • Some have called for the Israeli team to leave the race, but both hosts believe it wouldn't solve the issue: “Even if [Israel Premier Tech] would leave, I don't think it changes much.” (Johan, [18:44])
  • “They're protesting what is going on in Gaza, not just the existence of the Israel Premier Tech team… I don’t think that's the case.” (Spencer, [20:17])
• Quotes from Officials
  • Reference to Vuelta director Javier Guillen’s comments that the race doesn't have the power to remove teams and that protests are targeting wider issues.

4. Stage 12 Preview and Betting Picks ([26:25]–[33:19])

• Stage 12 Profile
  • Short stage (145km), two main climbs, likely for a breakaway.
• Favorites & Analysis
  • “The last climb is really hard…it's a hard climb. And I think a guy like Ayuso, if he’s in the breakaway, he can drop everybody.” (Johan, [28:56])
• Betting Picks
  • Johan’s pick: Juan Ayuso for the stage win (“I'm gonna pick him to win the stage.” [27:51])
  • Spencer’s picks: Jay Vine (“He wants KOM points...I’m going to bet on him at +1800.” [30:09]), Finn Fisher-Black as outsider.
  • Wild-card: Pablo Castrillo (Johan's secondary pick)
• Team Tactics in Stage 12
  • Discussion on whether UAE will let both Ayuso and Vine be aggressive, uncertain logic behind UAE’s stage strategies.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Pidcock’s breakthrough:
  “This was an announcement that, like, this guy is a GC rider, not just physically, but mentally.”
  — Spencer, [00:07]

• On Visma’s tactics:
  “I don’t know if that’s really within the plan of the three week stage race. Just buy the kid a nice present.”
  — Johan, joking about riding all day for Jonas’s son’s birthday, [04:48]

• On the consequences of protest disruption:
  “If they're unfurling banners on the steepest climbs and the riders can't get through, like we might just not be able to have a GC race here or a race of any kind.”
  — Spencer, [18:44]

• On cycling’s unique vulnerability:
  “It shows you the vulnerability of the cyclists and, you know, and how accessible professional cycling is. Right. I mean…you cannot imagine this in any other sport.”
  — Johan, [16:52]

• On hopes for the future:
  “Let's hope we have a regular stage tomorrow…that would be a bummer if we have to deal with this for the rest of the Vuelta.”
  — Spencer, [33:19]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [00:00] – Stage disrupted, no official results, summary of protest impact
• [03:11] – Why neutralizing the finish was correct, protest analysis
• [05:31] – Pidcock's exceptional performance and new GC status
• [09:04] – Vingegaard’s power, Visma’s tactics, UAE’s inconsistent moves
• [16:04] – Rider reactions to neutralized finish, protest intervention mid-stage
• [16:52] – Cycling’s vulnerability to public protests, quotes from race director
• [18:44] – Potential for more disruption, team removal debate, protest goals
• [26:25] – Stage 12 preview: terrain, favorites, and breakaway tactics
• [27:51] – Betting picks for Stage 12: Ayuso, Vine, Castrillo, Fisher-Black

Tone and Style

True to THEMOVE’s hallmark, the tone is insider, candid, sometimes irreverent (“Just buy the kid a nice present”), and deeply knowledgeable, focused both on tactical racing nuance and on the larger drama shaping the Vuelta.

This summary covers all major themes, notable quotes, and key timestamped moments. It provides a solid catch-up for listeners who missed the episode and want both race insight and context on the escalating protest crisis threatening the Vuelta a España.