Will Growing Protests Completely Derail the Vuelta a España? | Vuelta a España Stage 11 Analysis & Stage 12 Preview | THEMOVE+

Summary

THEMOVE Podcast — Vuelta a España Stage 11 Analysis & Stage 12 Preview
Host: Spencer Martin & Johan Bruyneel (subbing for Lance Armstrong)
Episode Date: September 3, 2025

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Episode Overview

The main focus of this episode is a deep-dive analysis of Stage 11 of the Vuelta a España, which was dramatically disrupted due to large-scale protests at the finish line in Bilbao. Spencer Martin and Johan Bruyneel (regular THEMOVE co-host and veteran cycling director) unpack how organizers' on-the-fly decision to neutralize the finish shaped the overall race, discuss the implications of this growing protest movement, and preview the crucial Stage 12—including detailed betting picks. Along the way, they examine Tom Pidcock’s breakthrough as a Grand Tour GC contender, Visma’s tactical choices, UAE’s mixed messages, and the escalating risk to race integrity posed by the current protest wave.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Stage 11: Race Disrupted by Protests

• Neutralization Decision ([00:00]–[03:00])
  • Due to protests blocking the Bilbao finish, organizers took times at the 3km-to-go mark, canceling official stage results.
  • “There was too many protesters at the finish line in Bilbao. So they made an on-the-road, on-the-fly decision to take the times 3km from the finish line, which is kind of the outskirts of Bilbao.” (Spencer, [00:17])
• Protest Impact
  • Both hosts agree the decision, though disappointing, was correct for safety and race integrity.
  • “[Protesters] got the race to be canceled. So they're not going to stop. I think it was the right call. It became too, too risky at the finish line.” (Johan, [03:11])
• Growing activism and race vulnerability
  • Both are concerned protests will continue, noting cycling's unique public accessibility as making it especially vulnerable.

2. GC Battle: Tom Pidcock’s Big Day & Team Tactics

• Pidcock emerges as a real contender ([00:00]–[09:00])
  • Both hosts admit they've been skeptical of Tom Pidcock's long-term GC potential, but Stage 11 marks a breakthrough.
  • “This might have been the ride, at least of his road career... This was an announcement that, like, this guy is a GC rider, not just physically, but mentally.” (Spencer, [00:07])
  • Notably, Pidcock dropped Jonas Vingegaard on the final climb: “He felt great on that last climb, accelerated and was able to drop Jonas Vingegaard twice in one kilometer, which is true. It hasn't happened a lot. Pogacar has done it. Not many other riders have done it.” (Johan, [05:31])
• GC Standings Update
  • Jonas Vingegaard in red, Joao Almeida second (+0:50), Pidcock third (+0:56).
  • Jensen: “What we learned from the stage: Vingegaard's pretty good, Pidcock's pretty good. Almeida, Jorgenson, Jai Hindley… Hindley is looking pretty good right now.” (Spencer, [13:00])
• Visma’s All-In Strategy & UAE’s Question Marks
  • Visma worked all day to control the race for Jonas’s birthday, but “burned the team and…lost time to a GC rider within a minute of us.” (Spencer, [07:29])
  • Both recognize Visma’s depth and strength, but question whether stage hunting is worth such costs.
  • UAE’s attacks are described as “scattershot”: “I don't understand the Solaire move. That was baffling... It just feels a little scattershot. They're not all singing from the same hymn sheet.” (Spencer, [11:57])
• Jonas’s Form Under Scrutiny
  • Not at his absolute best: “I think it's safe to say Jonas Vinegard is not putting out career best power numbers.” (Spencer, [09:04])

3. The Protest Movement: Racing on a Knife-Edge

• Growing Threat to Race Continuity ([16:00]–[23:00])
  • Protesters clearly see that disruption works and will likely repeat actions. “They got heard and seen and something came up from their protest.” (Johan, [22:13])
  • Organizers and the UCI have little recourse, as increasing police presence only goes so far; cycling’s open-road nature makes it hard to police.
  • “If they're unfurling banners on the steepest climbs and the riders can't get through, like we might just not be able to have a GC race here or a race of any kind.” (Spencer, [18:44])
• Israel Premier Tech Team Situation
  • Some have called for the Israeli team to leave the race, but both hosts believe it wouldn't solve the issue: “Even if [Israel Premier Tech] would leave, I don't think it changes much.” (Johan, [18:44])
  • “They're protesting what is going on in Gaza, not just the existence of the Israel Premier Tech team… I don’t think that's the case.” (Spencer, [20:17])
• Quotes from Officials
  • Reference to Vuelta director Javier Guillen’s comments that the race doesn't have the power to remove teams and that protests are targeting wider issues.

4. Stage 12 Preview and Betting Picks ([26:25]–[33:19])

• Stage 12 Profile
  • Short stage (145km), two main climbs, likely for a breakaway.
• Favorites & Analysis
  • “The last climb is really hard…it's a hard climb. And I think a guy like Ayuso, if he’s in the breakaway, he can drop everybody.” (Johan, [28:56])
• Betting Picks
  • Johan’s pick: Juan Ayuso for the stage win (“I'm gonna pick him to win the stage.” [27:51])
  • Spencer’s picks: Jay Vine (“He wants KOM points...I’m going to bet on him at +1800.” [30:09]), Finn Fisher-Black as outsider.
  • Wild-card: Pablo Castrillo (Johan's secondary pick)
• Team Tactics in Stage 12
  • Discussion on whether UAE will let both Ayuso and Vine be aggressive, uncertain logic behind UAE’s stage strategies.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Pidcock’s breakthrough:
  “This was an announcement that, like, this guy is a GC rider, not just physically, but mentally.”
  — Spencer, [00:07]

• On Visma’s tactics:
  “I don’t know if that’s really within the plan of the three week stage race. Just buy the kid a nice present.”
  — Johan, joking about riding all day for Jonas’s son’s birthday, [04:48]

• On the consequences of protest disruption:
  “If they're unfurling banners on the steepest climbs and the riders can't get through, like we might just not be able to have a GC race here or a race of any kind.”
  — Spencer, [18:44]

• On cycling’s unique vulnerability:
  “It shows you the vulnerability of the cyclists and, you know, and how accessible professional cycling is. Right. I mean…you cannot imagine this in any other sport.”
  — Johan, [16:52]

• On hopes for the future:
  “Let's hope we have a regular stage tomorrow…that would be a bummer if we have to deal with this for the rest of the Vuelta.”
  — Spencer, [33:19]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• [00:00] – Stage disrupted, no official results, summary of protest impact
• [03:11] – Why neutralizing the finish was correct, protest analysis
• [05:31] – Pidcock's exceptional performance and new GC status
• [09:04] – Vingegaard’s power, Visma’s tactics, UAE’s inconsistent moves
• [16:04] – Rider reactions to neutralized finish, protest intervention mid-stage
• [16:52] – Cycling’s vulnerability to public protests, quotes from race director
• [18:44] – Potential for more disruption, team removal debate, protest goals
• [26:25] – Stage 12 preview: terrain, favorites, and breakaway tactics
• [27:51] – Betting picks for Stage 12: Ayuso, Vine, Castrillo, Fisher-Black

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Tone and Style

True to THEMOVE’s hallmark, the tone is insider, candid, sometimes irreverent (“Just buy the kid a nice present”), and deeply knowledgeable, focused both on tactical racing nuance and on the larger drama shaping the Vuelta.

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This summary covers all major themes, notable quotes, and key timestamped moments. It provides a solid catch-up for listeners who missed the episode and want both race insight and context on the escalating protest crisis threatening the Vuelta a España.

Transcript

[A]

Yeah, I'm, I'm. I'm tuned up. I'm excited. Like Tom. I. We've been very critical of Tom Pickock on this podcast. Probably me, me more than you over the years. I thought today, I don't want to overstate it, this might have been the ride, at least of his road career. This was to me, like, obviously winning an altua is amazing. It's different. GC is different from stage. Stage wins out of breakaways. This was an announcement that, like this guy is a GC rider, not just physically, but mentally. Everybody, welcome back to the Move Plus, I'm Spencer Martin. I'm here with Johan Berniel. We are breaking down stage 11 of the Valta Espana and then we'll predict stage 12. There's no stage results to the list today because there was no official stage finish. Authorities, police, the race organizers decided it was. There was too many protesters at the finish line in Bilbao. So they made an on the road, on the fly decision to take the times 3km from the finish line, which is kind of the outskirts of Bill Bow. Jonas Fender. Tom Pitcock got away on the funnel climb. The. The PK is what we're calling it.

[B]

I. We.

[A]

We don't really know the best pronunciation, but we're doing our best there. They got clear, crested the top, got the time bonuses. There was six on offer for the first rider over. That went to Tom Pidcock. Jonas vinegard was a second ride over, so he got, I believe four. And then the third rider over was W 10 seconds behind. He got two. So Pitcock and Vinegar take a small bit of time. Chihuahua Mehta moves into second overall because Torsten Train was distanced again. But now It's Jonas Finnegarden first, Joelameda second, 50 seconds back. Tom Pitcock third, 56 seconds back. And when Pidcock attacked on the pique, he did something that not many people have ever done outside of Tati Picachar, and that is drop Jonas Vindergaard. Vinegar eventually got back on and we'll never know who would have won that stage. I probably would have guessed. I probably would guess that Tom Pickock would have won the sprint between them, Johan and I, he was pretty devastated in this post race interview, I'm sure. Q36.5 is very disappointed. I'll just say, personally I thought this, looking at the scenes, as sad as it is to cancel the end of the stage, I kind of thought they made the right decision. I think this preserves the GC competition instead of neutralizing the whole day because Visma worked very hard all day to control the stage, to set up Vinegar to win. And I assume they thought take time. They. It was a, just a brutal pace throughout the entire stage of the Bass country. They're just Nico Land. Mads Pedersen's breaking away. He's getting pulled in. Mark Solaire's breaking away. He's getting reeled in. Miko Landa breaks away, he gets reeled. And no one could stay away because Visma was setting it up. Joelameda did attack on the second to last climb. Attacked twice, looked pretty strong. The final climb was not really Almeida. It was so explosive. He's not a great change of pace rider, so I have to imagine he's probably somewhat. He's sad to lose time. But this was a, this was a bad day on paper for UAE and they lose. What is that? 14 seconds to Vindegaard, 16 seconds to Pitcock. They'll take it. But Johan, outside of the protests, or I guess maybe even including that, what was your takeaway of the day?

[B]

Yeah, obviously, you know, the protest and the fact that there was no stage results was a bit of a bummer, right? I guess. I mean, it's not a surprise. I think, you know, we could see it coming and honestly, I'm afraid this is going to continue because today the protesters obviously they, they obtained something. They got the race to be canceled. So they're not going to stop. I think it was the right call. It became too, too risky at the finish line. You know, we saw protesters pushing the barriers away and so, yeah, that was obviously a disappointment. But you know, this is the situation we, we are in. So other than that, my takeaway was that Visma, even if, if Vingegaard is in the red jersey, they were going full gas the whole stage for the stage win. Nobody in a breakaway had a chance. Not even a guy like Mats Petersen. Not even a guy like B. Drago, who looked good there for a while, Mark Soler. So yeah, it was a lot of work for a, for a stage win. Then afterwards I heard, well, yeah, okay, Jonas wanted to win because it's his son's birthday. I don't know if that's really within the plan of the three week stage race. Just buy the kid a nice present.

[A]

How'd you lose the vt? We weren't too deep on Jonas's kid's birthday.

[B]

Yeah, I mean, listen, they're super strong. You, you see, the, the, the depth of the team of Visma is just, it's shocking compared to the other team. You know, there was A point where, and this was, this was be just before, I think just before they got the news that the race was going to be cancelled. There was a select group and Almeida was by himself. There was no other UAE rider and Visma had four riders there. You know, they're there, they're super strong company. Arts to me was impressive again today. Ben Tulet was really impressive. Super strong ride from him in a support role. So that must give a good feeling to Jonas to be, you know, to have that super strong support. Anytime there's a selection and everybody is isolated, he has two or three guys around him still. But still I found it. It was a lot of work. A big effort for a potential stage win. Also also not a stage where you could, you could say, well, you know, we're not going to gain a lot. If we gain time, it's not going to be a lot of time. So it was purely about the stage win. So anyways, for the moment they're, they're in a great position. You know, we can't really criticize what they're doing because everything they do works out fine. You know, we, we've been critical of Visma Lisa bike. But if, if you look at their season and if everything goes to plan as we expect, they're most likely going to win this Vuelta. So that means that would mean that they win two of the three Grand Tours and the other one, they would. They were second. Not bad. Yeah. I mean, and then event of the day for me about the race is, is the strength of Tom Pitcock. Tom Pitcock every day more and more. And today, as you said, you know, he, he, he felt great on that last climb, accelerated and was able to drop Jonas Vingard twice in, in one kilometer, which is true. It's. It hasn't happened a lot. Bogachar has done it. Not many other riders have done it. Maybe cou. A few years ago in Paris, but that was not prime Jonas Vin. So that must give Pitcock and his team incredible morale boost. And as we said, you know, it. I said yesterday, it starts to look really, really realistic for Pitcock to be on the podium after today. I, I can only confirm that.

[A]

Yeah, I'm, I'm, I'm tuned up. I'm excited like Tom. I, We've been very critical of Tom Pickock on this podcast. Probably me, me more than you over the years. I thought today, I don't want to overstate it. This might have been the ride, at least of his road career. This was to me like obviously winning an Alpe to as amazing. It's different. GC is different from stage. Stage wins out of breakaways. This was an announcement that like this guy is a GC rider, not just physically, but mentally. Like there's not many riders that have done this. Also on Visma, I mean, not to be too critical of them, but if I just walked to you on the street and I was like, okay, Johan, we worked all day really hard, burned the team and we lost time to a GC rider within a minute of us, would you say that's a good day or a bad day? You'd probably save it doesn't sound amazing.

[B]

Well, they didn't. I mean, they obviously didn't expect Bitcock to drop Jonas. That's. That was not within their calculations. But nah, it's still. Still a good day, I think. I think they keep seeing Almeida as their main competitor for now. We've said it already. There's still a few stages where it's unchartered terrain for Tom Pitcock. Long, steep climbs in the third week. That's different. But. But hey, yeah, I think it was an okay day for Visma. They would probably have. I mean, they were disappointed because they were going for the stage win and they put so much work in it, but they did take time on who they believe is their main rival. So that's a bonus.

[A]

Yeah. Yes. I to be determined if that's a mistake because, I mean, Almeida looked pretty good today when he attacked. They did take time on him. But Pidcock, you kind of wonder what he weighs. Is this guy weighing like 56 kilos right now? And he said he's putting out career best power numbers at this race. So I think it's safe to say Jonas Vinegard is not putting out career best power numbers. I mean, he's good, obviously he's very good. He's one of the best writers of the last decade. Stage racers of the last decade. Like, he does not look on his best to me. And I still keep coming back to this decision to jump into the breakaway yesterday. Like that is kind of odd from a guy that has the GC under control in some respects.

[B]

I think that breakaway. I think jumping in that breakaway yesterday, I think that was kind of more. It happened. I don't think it was on purpose.

[A]

You know, it.

[B]

Sometimes it just happened. You know, there's people everywhere. You follow wheels and all of a sudden you're. You're ahead with.

[A]

You know, another detail happens when you follow Victor Campenaerts. You're reaching up to A breakaway you didn't know you were wanted to be in. But I thought today the protests will dominate the conversation. This might be the only public conversation had about the actual racing, but I thought it was pretty interesting. Like it, this is not as open and shut maybe as we thought on Sunday.

[B]

What do you mean?

[A]

Just after Sunday I was a little like, oh boy, I think Jonas is going to steamroll these guys. Yeah, there's a reason.

[B]

I mean today he showed some vulnerability. So that's good, that's good for, you know, the speculation. I mean, I still think, I still think it's, it's his race, you know, he's the, he's the stage racer by excellence in this, in this field at least so. And with such a strong team. Yeah, I mean, you know, we, we've said it already several times.

[A]

You know, what is, what is UAE.

[B]

Doing actually, you know, like today again, Solaire going in that breakaway. Why? I mean by then, by then everybody knew already that Visma was going for the stage when, when, when, when Solera attacked. So what's the purpose? Is the purpose to make it hard on Visma and, and then Almeida attack? I, I don't think, I mean on this climb, especially on this last climb, I can't see Almeida dropping Jonas. You know, it's, it's not an Almeida climb. Plus, when, when, when Jonas was still with three or four guys jaw, Almeida was by himself. There was nobody to prepare his lounge.

[A]

Yep.

[B]

Yes. His attack, I don't think it would have made a difference anyway. But still, it, it doesn't look great, you know, it doesn't look great.

[A]

Well, and then yesterday. Yeah, I don't understand the Solaire move. That was baffling. But yesterday when I used to setting Ayesha, who's who was in Narnia today off the back and he might have been at a cafe, we don't know. But when he was setting the pace yesterday he was dropping Mark Solaire and he was like, should Mark Solaire really be getting dropped on that pace? And then today he comes back and he's strong enough to be up the road. So it's like, what, what is going on? It just feels a little scattershot. There's not, they're not all, as they say in the U.S. if you're 80 years old, they're not singing from the same hymn sheet.

[B]

Yeah. I mean the only thing I can think about is that Solaire, they want to, you know, they, they, they have, they make him keep going to stay close in gc. So when he goes in a break, the Visma doesn't get a day off. Yeah, you know, that's maybe one of the thoughts if you're three, four minutes down. You know, Visma can't just cruise all day.

[A]

But wasn't it clear they were gonna go?

[B]

Looks like they're not really wanting to cruise anyway, so.

[A]

Yeah, that's what I don't understand. We should also call out. I mean, what we. What we learned from the stage. You know, Vinegar's pretty good, Pidcock's pretty good. Almeida Jorgensen, someone that's joined that group. Jai henley, because 1, 2, 3, 4 riders finished 10 seconds behind vinegar and Pidcock, and that's Jai Hen, Felix G. Mateo, Jorgenson, Ch Mea. And Hindley is looking pretty good right now.

[B]

Yeah. And, you know, he's. He's known to. I mean, the, The. The. The two times when he was. I mean, he was second in the Giro and when he won the Giro, he was at his best in the last week.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

So, you know, this is a rider who. Who grows during. During a Grand Tour. So, yeah, we need to. We need to. They can do a gown for sure. Look, he looked good today.

[A]

I mean, the only downside is he is 2 minutes and 30 seconds down on Jonas Finnegaard. It shows you. A lot of times people overlook it, but these first, let's say 10 days of a Grand Tour, there's just a certain type of rider that, like, they, like. Do you remember Jai Henley blowing up at any point? No. It's like he just bleeds bits of time through the first week, and you look up and you're like, oh, two and a half minutes to Jonas. That's not a great deficit.

[B]

Yeah, well, I don't think. I don't think, Spencer, we should. I mean, unless something unexpected happens. But at this point, I don't think it's realistic to say that Jay Hindley will. Will be candid to win this Vuelta.

[A]

He could be podium, probably. Yeah.

[B]

On the podium, but. But compared to. At least compared to Jonas and to. To Almeida, he will also lose time in the time trial. So, you know, he needs to. He needs probably really solid.

[A]

Well, was that probably to Pidcock as.

[B]

Well in the time trial? I don't know. I don't know.

[A]

It's a pretty good time. Trust when he. I mean. Well, I'm trying to think of Jai Henley's best time trial now. Probably when he won the Giro.

[B]

Yeah, he did. He did okay when he won the Giro. I mean, not. They didn't do. But, I mean, it didn't really matter that much, the time trial, because he had a decent advantage. But. But, yeah, I mean, Pitcock's not. I mean, Pidcock was a good time trialist when he was young, but he hasn't been doing great time trials lately, you know?

[A]

Yeah, this. Now that I'm. I'm now suspicious of all the Pitcock samples because I thought, there's no way this guy's a GC writer. And then it's like, well, he's. Was he just not focused?

[B]

Well, I mean, yeah, I mean, listen, first of all, the main ingredient is there. He's on great form. I mean, then you can do everything and. And especially a time trial in the last week of the Grand Tour that's pure based on condition. That's not so much based on, you know, time trial qualities.

[A]

Yeah. When you're. When you're as light as you've ever been and as strong as you've ever been, that's usually a good ingredient. Is. Is post. I felt bad for him. I mean, he definitely. Him and his team definitely got robbed of a massive win, but they asked him, like, he rode through the finish line and he's like, oh, that's just like a Tom Pitcock thing to do. It's kind of an interesting.

[B]

Oh, he rode through the finish line.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

Oh, I didn't know that.

[A]

Like, I guess just to make a point, but it was like a funny bit of self awareness from him. Like, I don't quite see many writers being like, oh, that's just like a Tom Pitcock thing to do. I don't quite know why I did that, but I felt quite bad for him. I mean, we don't want to talk. I don't think it's going to be helpful if we wade into the protests from an angle of, like, are they correct? Are they not? It's just our views on that are not helpful to anybody. But we should say. I don't know if you saw this earlier in the stage two protesters, like, unfurled a banner across the road and the riders had to ride through it.

[B]

Yeah. On one of the climbs.

[A]

Yeah. Going slow enough, it wasn't really an issue. And then obviously, the finish line, it's always an issue.

[B]

I mean, it's. It's, you know, it's just dangerous. You know, it shows you the vulnerability of the cyclists and, you know, and how accessible professional cycling is. Right. I mean. Yeah, you cannot imagine this in any other sport, you know, and it's. It's it's in a stadium, it's with fences, this is on the road. You know, people can touch the riders and that's obviously why they're there. But yeah, I mean listen, it's not going to make any difference to the big problem. I mean the people who at the, at the cause of the problem are not even aware that this is happening, you know, in a bike race in Spain. So it's, it, it makes, it makes no sense. But yeah, I mean I've just read some, some comments and quotes of people. You know, like even, even, even the director of the Vuelta, Javier Guillen, said obviously, you know, he's faced with this every single day at the start during the stage then you know, probably super, super nervous until the end of the stage to see if something' and he says, and I quote, we all have to find the solution. And for me there's only one right one, there's only one right now for the Israeli team itself to realize that being here doesn't make it any safer for everyone else. But we can't make that decision. They have to make it. And then I just saw another quote of Team Israel Premier Tech that said that they expect fully to race until Madrid and that they, they are not expecting to to leave the vta. I, I, I personally think Spencer, even if, if the would leave the va I, I don't think it changes much.

[A]

That I totally agree. I think it's a McGuffin like it's not, that's not what people are protesting I believe unless I don't think I heard I saw spokesman person for the protesters say if, if they leave the race, we will leave you alone. I, I don't think so at all. And I, I mean I think it's just the, the director saying that is going to mean that the writers, the other writers now will pressure Israel Premier Tech to leave. I I does not sit I, I, I will say like yesterday there was a, I don't know if you saw this there a protester in the middle of like a 40 mile an hour peloton and you think like this is not tenable and then someone crashed because of it. So like eventually like it's going to affect the GC if they're unfurling banners on, on the steepest climbs and the riders can't get through, like we might just not be able to have a GC race here or a race of any kind. I understand the temptation just to say hey guys, can you go home? Is because it's not that it doesn't look that safe. You know, like if someone ran up to a rider and wanted to harm them, like, what would stop them from doing so? But I don't think it would help. I think the issue, as you say the issue is bigger than this. And I think if you, even if you kicked out Israel Premier Tech, I think you would still have protesters along.

[B]

Yeah. Because they found, and especially now, they have found a platform which is accessible for them, which basically nobody can do anything against them. And they are hurt and seen and it works. Without the team in the race, it won't stop. I don't think so.

[A]

Yeah, yeah. And I, I, I just have to imagine they're protesting what is going on in Gaza, not what is going on, not just the existence of the Israel Premier Tech team. I could be wrong. Maybe, maybe they wake up every day and they just want Israel Premier Tech to leave the race. I don't think that's the case. But what do they, what do they do from here? Because, I mean, so Bilbao is a city with people in it. So that was part of the issue. They're going to more remote areas. But are the organizers just like, I hope, I hope stage 12 works out. Like, what's the, is there any plan?

[B]

Well, obviously they're gonna have to increase the, the police assistance and, and obviously monitor every single area of risk and, and try to, I mean, the protesters are going to follow the race. You know, they're, yes, they're not. So they're going to be there. So they'll have to reinforce the protection and just then just hope nothing happens. But, you know, I mean, on climbs and stuff, it's so remote, it's so accessible. It also means that it's more identifiable. You know, you can, you can pick them out easier than in a big crowd when it's on, when it's on climbs. So, you know, the crowds are not that big in, in the va so today I guess, you know, with, with in a big city, it was easier for the protesters to kind of appear without making too much noise.

[A]

Yeah, I guess it fits into your life easier. Like, I'm just trying to get, if I was a protester, I'd be like, yeah, I'll show up in Bilbao and block the finish. It's like, you want to go to Cantabria? I'm like, ah, I'm kind of busy, I've got to work. But man, also, if I was a protester, I'd be, I'd be like, so energized by today. Like, we Stopped the race. We can do it tomorrow. We can do it. Yeah, that's what I worry about.

[B]

Yeah, that's, that's the worry that they got what they wanted. You know, they got heard and seen and something came up from their protest.

[A]

So.

[B]

Yeah, hopefully, hopefully the race can, can go on. I don't know what the solution is.

[A]

I mean, there's all types of implications too. Like, you know, let's say you kicked him out and then Matthew Ricatello, does it win the white jersey? At least if that was a US sport, you'd get sued because you've manipulated the betting market because people placed money on him and Books took the risk thinking that they would be allowed, not that they would be kicked out of the race for something that's.

[B]

I can tell you one thing, Spencer, that the, the UCI is definitely not going to take action because they know for sure that if they, I mean, they could, I think they could potentially take ac. I think they have the power to do that. I'm not sure if you would. Look, for example, while they, they did. I mean, it's different. It's a different thing, of course, but they, they did ban all the Russian cyclists and then forced them to take a license as a neutral athlete. I mean. Yeah, so I would say theoretically they could, but they won't because they know they're getting sued for sure if that happens.

[A]

It's kind of a funny parallel. I mean, it's a little different because Gazprom is a Russian state. It's a state owned Russian company and there's international sanctions against them. So I guess they had legal grounds to stand on. But yeah, I mean, I'm gonna, I'm just gonna tell people I know, I personally know Sylvan Adams. Let's think what you, you can all have your opinions of him. I just tell you he's not leaving the race. There's no way he's gonna sue the UCI. Yeah, you, you would be a fight that you would not want to get into. Yeah. And he's not going to leave. And then this is unfortunately probably going to continue to be an issue. There's not really anything we can, I don't know, we can't anticipate it. So it's uninteresting to talk about from a sporting, sporting perspective, I guess, but I'm quite concerned. Anything else on the stage, Johan, before.

[B]

We go on, I mean, the only thing that I can also point out is where, you know, Pedersen man, Matt's Pedersen, he went in that break. I mean, he went by himself and actually his only motivation was to get that 20, 20 point sprint.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

Today actually turned out okay for him for the green jersey because he got 15 points. There was two riders away and Jonas wasn't able to get points at the finish because.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

Remains and is more than ever now his biggest opponent for green. He's not that far behind.

[A]

You're right. And Jonas would have gotten obviously first or second. And Jonas is very close. He's 30 points behind. He actually might have been tied with him had he gotten beat by Pitcock. If he would have won the stage, I think he would have been in the lead. So.

[B]

No, no, because Peterson took £15 points on the road already, so he increased his lead.

[A]

Maybe. I'm not seeing an updated. I see Pedersen 135 points, vinegar at 105 after today.

[B]

Yeah. So.

[A]

But if Jonas would have won the stage and he got 50 points, he'd be.

[B]

Was it 50? Was it 50 today?

[A]

Let's look at stage 10. How many. What did the winner get? The winner got 20 points, so it probably was a 20 pointer.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

So wouldn't be in the lead, but he'd be. He'd be sweating it. He'd be breathing down his neck. Interesting. I mean, talk about. Talk about disappointing. I mean, who do you think would have won had they gone to the line? I think so, too. I mean, that was. It kind of was interesting to me that Vinegar was really pushing that descent, like to the point where he was distancing Pidcock. Probably the best descender and the professional peloton, which shows you how much he wants to take time on Joel Meta.

[B]

Yeah, no, it was a good opportunity.

[A]

Yeah. Well, let's take a quick break and then we'll Preview tomorrow's stage 12. So we're back, Johan. Stage 12. It's 145. Another short stage. 145 kilometers. Two climbs, kind of like on opposite ends. There's a cat two 40 that tops out 40kn. And then there's a cat one with bonus seconds on top. That tops out with 122 into the race. So about 24 kilometers left to go. There's a sprint point before that cat one. I'm sure we'll see Mads Pedersen up there in a breakaway, driving the breakaway, trying to get those points. I'll list off the favorites. The odds are like moving. They're moving all over the place. They're different on different books. So just take. Take this with a grain of salt and also check out nextbets and it's nxtbets.com BET outcomes. And you'll get to see the best price wherever you live. Today is an important day to do that because there's quite a big difference. Wanna use those? The favorite at plus 650, Tom Pitcock. Plus 650 as well. Jonas Vinegard. Plus 1000. Jay Vine. Plus 1100. Mark Solaire. Plus 1100. Pablo Castrillo. Plus 1100. He's moved a lot. Javier Romo. Plus 2000. Santiago Petrago. Plus 2000. Maz Pedersen. Plus 2200. Finn Fisher Black. Plus 4000. There's many more. We'll call him out if we need to. But who. How do you think this is going to play out, Johan, Breakaway or gc? And who do you think is going to win?

[B]

I think breakaway. I think breakaway. It's difficult to control. Although, you know, today was difficult to control also, and Visma was. Was really great at controlling it. But I think breakaway. And I mean, it all depends, of course, if they get the freedom to go in the break or not. But a guy who, whether he gets the freedom or not to go in the break, will probably try anyways is Juana. You saw. So I'm gonna. I'm gonna pick him to win the stage. He is. What? I have him at plus 500 on Unibet. Is that still the same over there at plus 500?

[A]

Yeah, actually it's moved to plus 650.

[B]

Okay, okay.

[A]

Better price.

[B]

Okay. Even.

[A]

Even more reason to 700 on FanDuel in the U.S. yeah.

[B]

Yeah. So I think especially because, you know, that last climb is really hard. The Cat 1 climb.

[A]

It's.

[B]

Let's see, it's seven kilometers long, and it's just the first kilometer that's relatively easy. And then it's 9%, 9%, 10%, 8%. So it's. It's a hard climb. And I think a guy like I used to, if he's in the breakaway, he can drop everybody.

[A]

Yeah, that makes sense. It's an awkward stage to control too. Like, and you would be doing. If you're a GC team, you're doing it and then What? You're a GC guy. Attacks, crest the climb, 24k from the finish line. And yeah, it just does not seem like that would be worth it. I think breakaway as well. And this guy is. These prices are all over the place. But at least on FanDuel in the US, J Vine is +1700. I actually got him at +1800 right before we recorded this. I think I'm not going to over complicate this, Jay. Vine's very good. He's probably going to be up in the break with Juana. You. So I personally think he's stronger than Juana. You So right now, unless Juan USO is amazing at bluffing, I think Vine, I mean, he. Vine is just so strong. He, like, he is GC contender, sustained power, like.

[B]

But it's difficult to imagine they're both in. In the break. It's either one or the other.

[A]

Whistleaire, they'll all be up there. You cannot apply logic to anything this team will do. Just even. I mean, frankly, you could bet on both of them at these prices. The fact that Iuso is so ahead of Vine, I guess, would suggest that most people, like you, think one of them will be up there and that I also will be given the freedom to do so. But Vine, I mean, he wants KOM points. Like, he doesn't have this thing wrapped up. So I'm not convinced that he's going to be in the peloton. I'm going to bet on him at plus 1800.

[B]

Yeah. Yeah, good one. My wild card for tomorrow is Pablo Castrillo. I think he looked good the other day when vine won the stage. When he. When vine won his. What is it?

[A]

First.

[B]

He won his first stage, right? Or was it the second stage?

[A]

It was the second stage.

[B]

Second stage, yeah, yeah, yeah. But, you know, he's been quiet since and I think, yeah, he's in good shape. So Castrillo especially, like an attack on that climb and then, you know, making it on those last 24 kilometers to the finish. That's. That's something for him.

[A]

Yeah. Because the only guy stronger than him was Jayvine. If Jayvine's not up there, then, yeah, he absolutely could win. This has got. This is like we're in Movistar territory. If they're going to get something out of this, they're. They got to win one of these stages from breakaway. So I like that pick. This guy won two stages last year, the VTA as well, so he's good at it. I'm going to go. I don't think we mentioned him, but there was a rider from Red Bull absolutely crushing it today, looking fantastic on Unibet. He's at +4,000. Finn Fisher Black from Red Bull, if I'm correct. I feel like he switches teams every offseason, but I'm going to go, Finn Fisher black from the breakaway. Depends if they give him the freedom or not.

[B]

He's only been. He's only been on UAE and. And now he's on Red Bull. That's it, I think. Has he been where.

[A]

Where else has he been? No, I think it. Maybe it's just UA and Red Bull. He's also not very old to be like, 20. He's like 23 years old or something. 23. And he's been on two. No. Yum. He's been on Visma, UAE, Red Bull. So.

[B]

Okay.

[A]

Yeah. This guy is addicted to going to the best teams in the sport. He's a huge talent, we should say. Yeah, for sure. Very good writer.

[B]

Yeah, That's a good pick. That's a good pick. I mean, I agree with you, Spencer. Today he looked amazing. He got dropped and then he came back. He did some great work there where. When everybody was more or less on the limit. So that's an indication that if he gets in a first of all, that he has the legs to go in a breakaway and that from that breakaway he can actually win it if there's a climb at the end. So. Good pick. I like it.

[A]

Like, I mean, it's kind of like everyone we've met, all four of these guys, like, big, big engines. So you're gonna hold people off. Yeah. You're not finished on the mountaintop. You gotta hold people off on the run to the line. Anything else, Johan? Before we take off, let's hope we.

[B]

Have a regular stage tomorrow.

[A]

Spencer. Yeah, that would be.

[B]

That would be a bummer if we have to deal with this for the rest of the Vuelta. That's. That sucks.

[A]

And we should remember that the people really losing out because of this are us, because we bet on Jonas Vindergaard and Tom Pidcock to win today.

[B]

Both of them. Yeah, I know.

[A]

I was like, that's unbelievable. We got a sue. Yeah, it is kind of disappointing. I just. I hope that. I mean, do you know anything about this. This finish town? Like, is it sparsely populated? What is it, Los Corlas? No, I would assume it's sparsely populated, which at this. It's kind of a sad state of affairs that we're just hoping towns are small enough and hard to reach that people won't show up to protest the finish.

[B]

Spencer, listen, I personally think that this group of protesters, they're following the Vuelta. They're gonna. It's the same people all the time.

[A]

You have to. At this point. Yeah, yeah. You're a big win. You can't let off. Now. I don't listen to. I don't want to be encouraging them. I'm just saying how I would be thinking.

[B]

Yeah, yeah. I'm. I'm afraid this is not the last we've seen.

[A]

I want to say I'm afraid as well. And I don't think the vault. That statement does not let me think they have a great plan other than hoping someone leaves the race. Well, thanks, Johan. And we will be back to break down whatever happens tomorrow on stage 12.

[B]

Okay, thanks, Spencer.

[A]

Speak soon. All right, bye.