Will Jonas Vingegaard Win the Vuelta on l'Angliru? | Vuelta a España Stage 12 Analysis & Stage 13 Preview | THEMOVE+

Summary

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THEMOVE Podcast – Epsiode Summary

Title: Will Jonas Vingegaard Win the Vuelta on l'Angliru? | Vuelta a España Stage 12 Analysis & Stage 13 Preview
Date: September 4, 2025
Host: Lance Armstrong (not present), Spencer Martin (main host), Johan Bruyneel (regular guest)

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Main Theme & Purpose

This episode dives deep into the events of Stage 12 of the 2025 Vuelta a España and looks ahead to a pivotal Stage 13 finish atop the infamous l’Angliru. Hosts Spencer Martin and Johan Bruyneel analyze UAE Team Emirates' intriguing tactics, discuss rider dynamics (with particular focus on Juan Ayuso), review GC (general classification) implications, and debate whether Jonas Vingegaard can seal the race on one of cycling's most legendary climbs. The episode mixes tactical cycling insight, historical context, and predictions for one of the race’s most anticipated stages.

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Key Discussion Points

Stage 12 Recap: UAE’s Fifth Win & Ayuso’s Story

• Massive Breakaway and Controlled Peloton (02:00–04:00)

  • Over 50 riders went up the road, quickly establishing a two-climb stage, with all GC favorites staying cautious ahead of l’Angliru.
  • Mads Pedersen sprinted for maximum points, indicating he’s keen to defend the Green Jersey against emerging threats.

• Juan Ayuso's Tactical Victory (04:00–08:00)

  • Ayuso, aided by Mark Soler, attacks on the final climb and wins a tense finish.
  • Javier Romo (Movistar) finishes second, showing grit but being out-sprinted.
  • The break contained virtually half the peloton, with Movistar putting five riders in the move, underlining their intent but falling short again.

• Team Dynamics and Internal UAE Issues (08:00–13:00)

  • Ayuso seems on a “solo program,” with gratitude only to Soler—not the team—after his stage win.
    • Johan: “If Ayuso was there, it’s obviously because he got the green card from his team to go in the break… They let him the freedom.” (05:10)
  • Spencer and Johan debate if giving riders like Ayuso this freedom is good public policy, or if it undermines their GC ambitions with Almeida.
  • UAE’s record—five stage wins and probable podium—means “the team atmosphere must be quite good. Even with the drama we had of Juan Ayuso… leaving and the press release and him not being happy about it.” (Johan, 06:20)

• Controversy Around Ayuso’s Attitude (12:50–14:12)

  • Memorable moment: Ayuso’s social media after the win thanks only Soler, igniting criticism—even from Spanish media and legends like Pedro Delgado.
    • “Don’t criticize the team because of the wording or the timing of the press release. Just be grateful they let you leave and go to another team.” (Johan summarizing Delgado at 13:30)
  • Spencer notes the awkwardness of warehousing such talent as Ayuso on a team where he can’t target the Tour for leadership.
  • General theme: stage wins vs. GC ambitions—a perennial debate for superteams.

• Javier Romo’s Emergence (14:40–18:30)

  • Romo’s background: latecomer from triathlon, rocketing through domestic Spanish teams to Movistar.
  • Romo was “the only guy who could catch [Ayuso] on the climb”, and arguably stronger in the final 2km—but outfoxed at the line.
    • “He was pretty generous with the polling. He was yelling at Ayuso… I’m pretty sure he said, I don’t like to race like that. But the team made me…that’s how you bike race, man.” (Spencer and Johan, 18:00–18:25)

• GC & Team Strategies Remain Stable (19:45–20:59)

  • No time lost for the GC group; Visma keeps everything under control.
  • “Everybody’s saving their legs for tomorrow.” (Spencer, 20:37)

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Rider Physiques, Modern Gear & Changing Cycling

• Ayuso and Romo: Modern Rider Build (20:37–22:19)
  • Ayuso’s size (183 cm / 65kg) is light for his height; just like Pogacar.
  • Jorgenson: “190cm and 69kg—man, you’re skinny!” (Johan, 22:12)
  • The conversation highlights how, in modern cycling, the most successful GC riders are often slight and power-to-weight obsessed.

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Stage 13 l'Angliru Preview

• Climb and Stage Review (24:36–27:00)

  • The hosts lay out the three major climbs, culminating in the infamously steep Angliru (13km, ~10% avg; final km’s at 17%).
  • Cat 1 climbs before Angliru are already morale-testing; gearing range less of an issue today but was a “nightmare” in cycling’s recent past.
    • “Back in the days...you had special gears for Angliru, special triple chainrings. The mechanics had to change all the bottom brackets…” (Johan, 27:03)

• Historical Context (29:42–30:35)

  • Recollections of Postal Service’s first visit (1999) and Roberto Heras’s win (2002).
  • The climb doesn’t always produce big time gaps due to its extremity—riders are forced to pace themselves: “On those super steep climbs...you can only go your own pace.” (Johan, 30:35)

• Betting Odds and Favorites (31:14–34:00)

  • Jonas Vingegaard is an overwhelming favorite, with betting odds reflecting his dominance.
  • Alternatives: Joao Almeida, Tom Pidcock, Jay Vine, Felix Gall.
    • “Tomorrow, Visma’s keeping this under control—tight—and any break...doesn’t make it. So I’m going Jonas.” (Johan, 32:27)

• Predictions & Tactics (34:00–38:51)

  • Both believe the stage likely comes down to the GC group.
    • Spencer tips Almeida for an outsider win: “Maybe not winning the Vuelta tomorrow, but starting to worry Jonas.”
    • Johan: “If it is GC, it’s Jonas, Almeida, or Pidcock. Wild card, Jay Vine.”
    • “If Pitcock drops Jonas tomorrow, that keeps the race wide open.” (Johan, 37:23)
  • Weather, stage length, terrain, and breakaway viability are discussed, but consensus leans heavy toward a GC shootout.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On UAE’s Dilemma and Ayuso:
  • “We can criticize all we want, but five stage wins in the Vuelta, they’re in second place…most likely going to be on the podium without any bad luck.” – Johan Bruyneel (02:29)
  • “You get some stage wins. That’s nice, but does that sit right with you?” – Spencer Martin questioning UAE’s approach (08:24)
• On Team Politics:
  • “The team could easily have said, Ayuso, you just stay with Almeida and this is your job for the rest of the Vuelta. And he would have had to accept it. Obviously, that’s not the case.” – Johan (05:20)
  • “Winning erases a lot of conflicts and a lot of stress.” – Johan (09:55)
• On Tactics for l’Angliru:
  • “The first time the peloton went up Angliru was 1999…I remember the first winner was Jose Maria Jimenez ‘El Chava’…” – Johan reflecting (27:17)
  • “It’s the climb where for the first time we saw Jonas do a super performance…from then on we kind of knew that this guy was going to be somebody with huge potential.” – Johan, on Vingegaard’s 2020 breakthrough (32:27)
• On Who Can Win Stage 13:
  • “If we’re starting from a point that’s going to be GC, I don’t think there’s anybody who can win except Jonas, Almeida, or Pidcock.” – Johan (34:58)
  • “Pitcock is discovering himself day by day…if there’s anybody who can give Jonas a run for his money, except Almeida, it’s going to be Pitcock.” – Johan (37:23)

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• Stage 12 Play-by-Play & Analysis: 02:00–08:00
• UAE Internal Tactics & Ayuso’s Status: 08:00–14:30
• Javier Romo’s Background & Stature: 14:40–18:30
• Team Strategies in GC Battle: 19:45–20:59
• Physique/Gears Discussion: 20:37–22:19
• Stage 13 Route Details/L’Angliru Context: 24:36–27:03
• Equipment History on Angliru: 27:03–29:42
• Major Gaps & Climb Dynamics: 30:17–31:14
• Favorites/Picks for Stage 13: 31:14–38:51

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Closing Thoughts

The hosts close out by emphasizing the significance of Stage 13 at l’Angliru. All signs point to a showdown between Vingegaard, Almeida, and Pidcock—with history suggesting Angliru can shape the Vuelta, but rarely settles it entirely. The episode mixes incisive tactical breakdowns, inside-the-sport color, and a healthy dose of skepticism toward prevailing team policies.

If you missed the stage or want to sound like an insider at the next group ride, start here for the context, controversy, and the predictions that will define tomorrow's race.

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Next up: Full breakdown and debrief after the drama of l’Angliru…

Transcript

[A]

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[B]

Are you so won again? 2st pretty impressive, I have to say. And as you said already five stages already for UAE out of 12 stages. So you know, we, we can criticize all we want, but five stage wins in the Vuelta, they're in second place. They're most likely going to be on the podium without any bad luck.

[C]

Everybody, welcome back to the move. I'm Spencer Martin. I'm here with Johan Berniel. We are breaking down stage 12 of the Vuelta Espana and once we do, we will predict tomorrow's Stage 13. Critical Stage 13, one of the most important stages of the race in terms of GC. But stage 12 was won by Juan Uso, getting his second stage win of this VTA Espana, getting his UAE team's fifth. Fifth out of 11 stages. I know it's stage 12, but we didn't have a stage winner yesterday. That's pretty good. Nearly a 50% strike rate on stages. Javier Romo from Movistar second Movistar still looking for that elusive victory and a Groupama FDJ rider I don't think I'd ever heard of. Johan, not to sound like a casual but Briuk Roland was third, chasing very close behind. The day it was as we expected and you even got the stage winner right. I think your pick yesterday was Juana, you so, so congrats to you. But it was a very kind of strangely, it was like a stage with two climbs, one on one end, one on the other. The breakaway went on the first climb about 40km into the RA. Huge move. 50 plus riders got away as soon as that happened. Visma gets to the front, just starts pacing on the front of the peloton. Everyone, all the GC riders know that tomorrow's the day they want to conserve energy up in the breakaway. Of course, if there's a break that big, there's going to be attacks. Mads Pedersen kind of Kept it together and kept to the front until they got to the sprint point so he could get those 20 points max. And key to extend his lead because Jonas Vinegar is probably going to make a run here later in the race. And then they get to the second climb, the final climb, and Javier Romo or not Javier Romo juo is. Is launched by Mark Soler's teammate. Looks like a devastating attack that no one can respond to. Impressively, Romo like, reels him in, goes with them over the top of the climb, and they. AO was maybe sitting on too much for Romo's liking, but Romo was willing to do the work, so it paid off for ao. And then ISO impressively smokes him in the sprint, wins the stage. But it was, you know, there was tension with a rider chasing just 13 seconds back. There was a Pedersen group, 17 seconds back. It was not, you know, a foregone conclusion, but those guys were clearly the best of the group. Johan, we saw no, nope. We saw protesters on the side, no protests on the road. So that, that was a bit of the big win of the day. But what is your takeaway from the stage?

[B]

Yeah, well, takeaway is that a huge group went away, 50 plus riders, first 38, and then I kind of didn't watch for 10 minutes and all of a sudden there were 50 something. Yeah, almost half of the half of the peloton. So impressive. Movistar, five riders in the first group. Already in the 38 riders. They had five riders there, so it was clear that, you know, they were keen to win the stage. But, you know, with Ayuso and Soler there, I think it was clear that these guys were the favorite. And, you know, no matter what we say about UAE and Ayuso, Ayuso won again, two stage wins. Pretty impressive, I have to say. And as you said, already five stages already for UAE out of 12 stages. So, you know, we, we, we can criticize all we want, but five stage wins in the Vuelta, they're in second place. They're most likely going to be on the podium without any bad luck. You know, we can, we can ask questions, right? We can say, well, why do they let these guys go in the break? If I use, if Almeida needs help, I mean, today, for example, I think Almeida was very well surrounded. Not at any moment was he alone compared to Jonas and his Visma teammates. The only question you can have as well, you know, how much energy do these guys spend the day before Angliru? But again, I think Angli do is also a Climb where teammates don't really make that big of a difference. It's super steep, the last part. And I think Almeida is a writer that if he. If he needs a teammate, he's still going to be always better to ride his own pace. And that pace, Almeida space is going to be too fast for any of his teammates anyway. So I think, you know, we can be critical about the tactics of uae, but I'm not, you know, I don't hate it, you know, I mean, five stage wins already. The team atmosphere must be quite good. Even with the drama we had of Juana Jusso and, you know, him leaving and the press release and him not being happy about it. One thing that was coming to my attention and quite telling was Juana Jusso's comments, his own comments on his Twitter feed. So he says, you know, second stage win. Thank you very much to all the fans for an unbelievable day. And thanks a lot to Mark Soler. Not thanking his team at all. Just Mark Solaire so bad. You know, that's a bit weird because, you know, if Ayuso was there, it's obviously because he got the green card from his team to go on the break. The team could easily have said, are you. So listen, you just stay with Almeida and this is your job now for the rest of the Vuelta. And he would have had to accept it. Obviously, that's not the case. They let him the freedom. You can ask the question, right? Why do they do this? Why do they allow these guys to go in breakaways? Personally, I think Spencer, don't know what you think, but I think that if they are being realistic and everything goes to plan with Visma and Jonas, I think that they know that it's going to be extremely difficult to win this Vuelta and they know that if Almeida stays on this level, he's going to be podium. And at the same time they have opportunities to win stages. It's not a bad strategy.

[C]

Yeah, as it was happening, I was thinking, this is ridiculous. Like, Mark Solaire was in the move yesterday, he's in the move today. Almeida needs someone to position him tomorrow. Maybe Mark Solaire would be a good guy to do that. You got to get to the bottom of the climb in good position. It's really important is if they get second overall with seven stage wins, is that a success? Probably right? That's pretty good. So that would be the flip side. But the thing. So I kind of came to terms with the Solaire being up there launching. I use. So, like, maybe that's.

[B]

Sorry. Sorry to Interrupt. Let's not forget what we talked about two days ago, that they have this goal to win most races.

[C]

True. Yeah.

[B]

Yeah. Today's another one. Another one that's added to the. You know, it's 78 now.

[C]

I. Yeah, I was thinking about that. But the thing that really doesn't sit right with me, Johan, is who. Who was one of the last riders to finish yesterday.

[B]

Was it that you saw.

[C]

And. And then it's like he's clearly physically fine and he clearly has no intent to work for the team. And yes, you get some stage wins. That's nice, but I don't. Does that sit right with you?

[B]

It's just.

[C]

So you're chasing GC and then you have a guy completely on his own program.

[B]

Yeah. I can only think that he got the green light today to go in the break. Let's wait until tomorrow. What. What if. What if are you tomorrow? Not that I. I mean, I'm not having high hopes for this, but what if a does the first part of the Angliru with Almeida on the wheel and then Almeida attacks? I still think it's not going to make a big difference between the big favorite between Almeida and Vingard and Pitcock and Felix Gal and others. But. But what if he does that? I mean, I could see the staff. This. The staff was pretty happy. You know, we have to say lots of the staff is Spanish. So the guy who is at the finish line and was super happy for a ju. So in Spanish and has been with UAE and with. With the teams of Machin for a very long time. So listen, winning. Winning erases a lot of conflicts and a lot of stress and.

[C]

Well, so we say teammates don't matter on this climb, but Primus ruglic won the 2020 Volt Espana because he got dropped on the final climb tomorrow and he had a teammate. Supkus to pace line. Like the drafting is not massive, but. But it's there. Like sometimes.

[B]

It'S.

[C]

It's.

[B]

It's important in the first part of the stage of the climb and then the last one and a half kilometer.

[C]

Yeah. And so maybe Ayuso does an amazing job tomorrow and like that would be fantastic. But why. I still can't get my head around why did they bring him? Was it four stage wins? Because he said that he was never going to be in the gc.

[B]

Huh? Yeah, he said that from. From the get go. Yeah, obviously it isn't. If you can go to the Vuelta and you can win two stages, any rider would take that. Except if you're the favorite to win. It's not that easy. You know, I've ridden. I've ridden the Vuelta many times and I've only won once, one stage. So winning two stages in one Vuelta is, you know, is obviously quite the accomplishment. But I do answer your question, Spencer. Why they brought them, I don't know. Was it part of the agreement to let them go? We don't know. I think there's obviously other writers on UAE who could be a great teammate. And, and, you know, if we're thinking about Brandon McNulty, Rafa, Micah. What about him? He could. He could.

[C]

Yeah, I've heard people say that. But isn't he retiring and he wanted to do Tour of Poland?

[B]

Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, he's. He wanted to do Poland, but. Yeah, he. Yeah, but there's people in the Vuelta that were in Poland, you know.

[C]

True. He might be. I, I don't, I don't want to speak for the guy, but he might be in a beer garden enjoying.

[B]

Yeah, listen, I think UAE can't ask to squeeze out the last bit of energy out of Rafa Micah after everything he has done, you know, and what he means for the team.

[C]

Yeah, but they have a lot of strong riders in that team. I mean, maybe I just two, two stage ones of the vault. Like, is that moving the needle for uae? Like, clearly it is. Clearly it's enough for them to bring him and maybe he's amazing tomorrow. And we say, oh, that's why they brought him. They're geniuses. We're fools. So I don't, I don't want to dig into this too much because it's still. There's still cards left to play. Maybe he's happy now. I mean, you were saying in the Spanish media, it doesn't seem like he's ecstatic at. You'd think he would be happy because he wanted to leave. The team's a dictatorship. Now he gets to leave. He still doesn't seem that happy and he's still criticizing the team.

[B]

Yeah.

[C]

And you said he's getting some criticism in Spain.

[B]

Well, I mean, he's not. I mean, today he didn't criticize the team, but he didn't thank anybody else. Then Mark Soler. That's not cool. And then I saw a quote from, for example, from Pedro, Pedro Delgado, who's a very ex. To the France winner, ex Vuelta winner. Think twice. He's a star in Spain and, and he's also a commentator on Spanish national tv and he was quite critical about a user's comments after, you know, the press release and saying, by saying, hey, you know what I mean, listen, you want to leave, you have a multi year commitment. You want to leave, the team allows you to leave. What else do you want? You know, just be grateful that they let you leave and go to another team and look, you know, for your own personal interest. And then don't criticize the team because of the wording or the timing of the press release. Yeah, I personally think Delgado has a point. You know, I'm not, I'm not criticizing the fact that A wants to leave. I mean, he only knows why he wants to leave and why he wants something different. But I, I think his criticism of the team was. Yeah, it was, it was a bit out of control, I think.

[C]

Yeah, I mean I, I think it's bad for cycling. Is it that he's at uae? Like, I want A Del Toro all racing against Tad I got at the Tour. I do not. I, I just think it's terrible that they're all on the same team. So like AO is working toward my goal of getting the best riders racing against the best riders. So I'm doing that.

[B]

He was not going to race for P at the Tour because he was never going to be on the Tour team as long as P was racing for the Tour.

[C]

Yeah. Which is kind of a shame because then you have this talented rider who's just like warehoused and he's never going to go. But second place, Javier Romo, I get him confused with Ivan romeo.

[B]

Yeah.

[C]

But one. Javier Romo is older. He is 26 years old. You think, oh, he's a, he's a grizzled veteran. No, he's not. Because he just started racing bikes. He was on a club team in 2020 and then he went straight from a club team to World Tour with Astana in 2021. Yeah, very good rider. Won a stage at Tour down under this year. I had to go back. I remember us talking about him last year at the Tour. He was in the winning move in TWA on stage nine, the gravel stage. Got seventh. That's. That's a very hard stage. Like not only just physically but technically. So for a guy, he was a triathlete. Is that right? And then he came over to cycling.

[B]

In 2020, Spencer, the COVID year. There were no events in Europe and definitely not in Spain, definitely not any triathlons. And so as you know, if I'm not mistaken, he joined a club team, Cafe Bucket, which is one of the best under 23 teams also. It's like one of the feeder teams for. It's a Basque team. It's been around forever. It's a historic team in Spain. And I think they. I mean, in the past, I know at least they had a good connection with. With Movistar. Bones de Par. I don't know if that's still the case, but anyway, he was on that team and he did a couple of races. I think he started. One of his first races was the Spanish Championships. He did the time trial under 23, so finished seventh there. And then he won the. The Spanish national road Race without hardly have ever raced on the road. So he came straight from prathlon and one was national champion and then turned straight away professional with Astana, which was a bit of a surprise when you would have thought Movistar would have picked him up. But I don't know what happened there. But he's been three years or four years on Astana and now since last year on Movistar, but definitely a rider with a big engine. And today I think he was impressive. You know, I just saw. Went really hard for it. And Romo was the only guy who could catch him on the climb. On the. On the last climb and actually I think the last 2km of the last climb, he was definitely equal, if not a bit stronger than Ayuso I used. There was no way I also could have dropped him anymore. And I also felt that also that's why, you know, he. He basically gambled everything on his sprint. But yeah, impressive performance. The whole movie Star team was really good today. And. And Javi Roma was. Was super, super strong. Big performance to be with with Ayuso and coming in second.

[C]

Yeah, it was kind of. It's kind of sad to see him and Movistar miss out on a win. I'm not quite sure what he could have done. It. It's just when you have a guy like, are you so up in the breakaway? It's like, good luck. I don't know what to tell you there about how to beat him, especially when there's people chasing behind you. Like, if they get caught by the Pedersen group, it's all done, right? You're not even gonna get second. So he. He was pretty generous with the polling. He was yelling at Ayuso. But it's funny, I used to. At the end of the stage, I thought I. I was in the. I was in public watching the race, and I'm pretty sure he said, I. I don't like to race like that. But the team made Me, it's like, wait, come on.

[B]

Oh, you mean like sitting on or doing less than the other one? It's like, that's how you bike races, man. I mean, like, listen, I uso was. I mean, if the instructions from the team are obviously okay, you know, to take a pole but don't drive the brake, they need it more than we do, which is true. You know, you take advantage of the weaknesses of your opponents. I mean, Movistar desperately needs a win. Romo needs a win. Ayuso has won already many times. He won a stage. So, yeah, it's normal. I think it's normal. You take advantage of that situation and try to play to your advantage.

[C]

When's the last time Movistar won a vault the stage?

[B]

Huh? I don't know, man.

[C]

It might. I don't know, do you? It might have been probably.

[B]

Probably Lopez 20, 20 big climbs.

[C]

Yeah, 20, 21. That was the same year where he was like sitting top five or something on stage 20, and he just got off his bike and went home. Still, I still can't believe that unbelievable commitment to being disgruntled. So I do respect that. Anything else on the stage before we move on?

[B]

Yeah, I mean, other than that. I mean, easy day for the GC guys. You know, Visma was completely in control. They had Victor Campenaerts up the road. I don't know why, but he was there and basically was Von Barle. And who was the other guy? Calderman maybe, or Von Barla, Keldermann and Ben Tulet, who. Who were always there. And then Jorgensen setting the tempo on. On the climb with to let again. So, yeah, I mean, no problems for them. It was kind of to be expected, you know, to. That there was not going to be any movements in gc because it was clear that there was going to be a big breakaway up the road. So everybody's saving their legs for tomorrow.

[C]

Yeah, yeah, I think that was obvious. One thing before we move on. Juana ISO, he's listed at 65 kilos. I was surprised because Javier Roma is a. You know, he's like a muscular. He looks like a triathlete, kind of. Juan is like a big, broad shoulders. Like. Is he really 60? He's also tall, like, much taller than I thought he was.

[B]

How tall is he?

[C]

He's listed at 1 1.83 meters.

[B]

183. Okay. 65 kilos. Yeah, I think it's possible. It's. It is light. 65.

[C]

It's like pagacha weight.

[B]

Yeah, yeah, it is. Super light. He looks. I mean. Yeah, I don't know.

[C]

I was just looking at him thinking, man, that is an athletic. It's been a minute since we've seen someone with that athletic of build winning a gr.

[B]

But then if you look at, for example, let's see, what's Mato Jurgenson? Jurgenson is, let's see, he's super tall.

[C]

He's super tall. He, he's probably as light as he can be, but that's another kind of thing I worry, not worry about. I think Jorgensen has had a great career. He could retire.

[B]

Jorgenson is 190 and he weighs 69 kilos.

[C]

Yeah. Makes it tough for him to win Grand Tours against these guys like Jonas and. Yeah, and Pagachar and like think like Jonas Pagachar, Remco. Like that. None of these guys are, are very big, man.

[B]

Let me tell you, man, 190 and 69 kilos. That you're skinny. That's skinny. That's. Yeah.

[C]

Do you remember when he called into the move and he was eating fake ice cream or something? Yeah. Like, I think his whole life is like focusing on being as skinny as he possibly can. It's just, it's tough in modern cycling, I think, to win Grand Tours when you're built like a normal athlete. It's hard. You're racing against tiny people. But moving on, let's take a quick ad break, Johan, and we'll talk about Stage 13, a very important GC state. Let's map out this week's amazing destinations and travel tips.

[B]

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[B]

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[C]

Amazing destinations and travel tips.

[B]

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[A]

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[C]

Okay Johan, we're back. 202 kilometer stage tomorrow. Two that I I cannot pronounce this climb, La Angrelu I guess would be.

[B]

The best.

[C]

And it is. It is the third climb of the day but the first two are clustered right before it. It's the Cat 1 about 40km from the finish. It's the descent sprint point and then another cat one 5.5 K at hit 8.8%. That's.

[B]

And let me tell you, those two climbs, Spencer, those two climbs are already very hard. Like I remember. I remember some of the guys. For example, Alto del Cordal is, is, is already very like the last 2km of Alto del Cordal. You know, you obviously you have special, I mean back in the days, you know, now they have such a big range of, of gears. But you know, you had special gears back in the days for the Angliru, especially for the. I remember some guys saying, you know, the smallest gear I had, I was already using it on Alto del Cordal. Which is super bad for the morale if you know that you have to go up the ugly roo afterwards.

[C]

You know what's all it's like 12 average for the last 2k on that climb. Yeah, that is depressing when you're already tapped out on your gears and you're not even to the hardest climb. But they look small on the profile because the, the heart. So the second to last climb, as you said, five and a half kilometers, almost 9% average. The final climb 13k long basically 10 average gradient for that 13k. But that's deceptive deceptively low. Because the last, let's say two thirds of it, it's almost all over 12%.

[B]

Oh yeah.

[C]

With kilometers at basically 17 average. And then if this awkward like dip, it's almost descends to the finish at the very top. Last time we came here, Primus Raglitz won. It's almost always one from the GC group. The only one we, we could find that wasn't that way was 2013. Kenny Elizonde won and then that's where Chris Froome dropped Vincenzo Nibali and won the overall. I'll list the favorites and then we'll talk about who's going to win. And you, you've been a part as a manager of a few key moments of this race as well. At this stage as well.

[B]

Yeah. To speak before we, before we talk about the favorite, Spencer. So it's such a special climb, as I said. Nowadays, you know, the gear range is just. It's not a problem anymore. You know, you can ride 34, 34 or even 34, 36, I would think. Yeah, you can ride 3436. Because that's what I have on my Ventum NS1. I have 34 in the front and 36 in the back. It's, you know, and I don't know, I even. I don't know if I would get up Angli Roo with this. But back in the days, I remember the first time the peloton went up Angiru was 1999. I was there with Postal. My first year as a DS. Was it 99 or 2000? Probably 99. And I think the first winner was Jose Maria Jimenez El Chava, one of the great climbers of Spain. Sadly, he's not, not amongst us anymore. And I remember back then, you know, obviously the equipment was completely different and it was a big mess because the mechanics had to change the bikes. We were, you know, to get up the Angiru, you had to have it. Have a triple chain ring. There was not there. So we had to change. We wrote Shimano back then, triple chain ring. The mechanics had to change all the bottom brackets because you needed a longer bottom bracket axle for three chainrings. And so that was quite, I mean, something back then also because, you know, back in the days we didn't have an overflow in stuff. You know, we had maybe three mechanics for the whole, for the whole team. And so, yeah, that was something. And then in 2002, I remember we won with Postal with Roberto Heras one there and I Do remember back then, triple chain link still. And Roberto was riding so three chainrings in the front 53, 39, 30. And then in the back he was riding 1125. So his smallest gear was 3025. And it was raining. And I remember that with a 3025, he had to stay seated because. And, and the wheel was skipping because he would stand up.

[C]

That's crazy.

[B]

Yeah, yeah, yeah. So I don't think things have changed since, you know, it's 23 years later in the meantime and the gearing is not an issue anymore.

[C]

I don't think any of those were televised in the US but it was like the heyday of cycling magazine. So I just remember sitting in school reading like pro cycling magazine and they would like talk about this, like, oh, wow, they're riding triples. And then like, I think climbs like this pushed our modern what we have now. Like, we're kind of born out of these climbs because these riders were like, these gear are not big enough to kind of push the manufacturers to make better gearing that we're enjoying today. So it is like an interesting bit of. It's a new climb. You know, think 99 was the first time it ever went up. And then it's, it's kind of been.

[B]

It'S featured quite a few times, like seven or eight times.

[C]

I guess the only, I mean, harass in 2002, your rider won by like a minute and a half. But it's not, actually does not normally generate massive gaps. Is the only, like slight misunderstanding.

[B]

I mean, it's, it's kind of what you tend to see, you know, on, on those super steep climbs. I mean, everybody just. You can only go your own pace. It's not like, it's usually climbs of like between 7 and 9% tend to, to produce bigger gaps.

[C]

Yeah. Because the speeds are so high, the.

[B]

Speed is a lot higher. You know, on this climb you either go whatever, 10 per hour or 9.2 kilometers per hour, you know, on the steep parts. But yeah, so yeah, you, you don't tend to see big, big gaps.

[C]

Yeah, I haven't done the math on this, but I think like, let's say someone's going eight miles an hour and the person behind them is going seven. I think the time would be different than if someone's going like 17 miles an hour and the person behind them is going 16 miles an hour on a climb. But I don't know, mathematician, let me know if that's right or not. The favorite is this, is, this is Crazy. Stage Favorite Jonas Vinegar. Minus one. He's 190 on FanDuel in the U.S. you said he's 167 on. On Unibet, which I'm having.

[B]

Negative. Looking at negative 167.

[C]

Yeah, negative 167. So you'd have to bet $167 to win a hundred dollars of profit. Joel Ometa. That might not be a bad bet. Joao Mehta. Plus 700. That's the second favorite. Tom Pickock. Plus 1100. Jay Vine. Plus 1800. Felix Gall. Plus 2700. Juana, you so. Plus 3000. That would be epic if you want that. Jai Henley plus 3500. David Godou. I don't even know why it's this high. Plus 5,500. It goes on and on. We'll come out when we need to. If you do want to bet, go to nxtbets.com betoutcomes they'll walk you through how to do it and where to get the best price and sign up bonuses wherever you live. Johan, how do you think this is going to play out? GC or breakaway? And who's going to win?

[B]

I'm almost certain it's going to be G.C. spencer, especially with the strength of Fisma, knowing that Jonas, he wanted to win the other day didn't turn out. I mean the case because. Because of the end of the stage. But I think tomorrow Visma's keeping this under control, tight and any break that is under whatever three minutes, I would say at the bottom of Angiru doesn't make it. So I'm going to go Jonas. This is the climb. Basically Angry is also the climb where for the first time we saw Jonas in a big race do a super performance. I remember seeing him in 2020 on Visma when nobody really knew. Johannes Vingegaard doing an incredible impressive pull for Primus Roglich. Who won. Who won the Vuelta then? I don't know who, I don't remember. I think it was Hugh Carty who won the stage, if I'm not mistaken. Yeah, but Jonas did. Did a really impressive pull there and kind of put his name on the map. From then on, we kind of knew that this guy was going to be somebody that had huge potential. So even at minus 171, 67, I'm gonna pick Jonas to win the stage.

[C]

It's not a bad pick, even at that price. I mean, the thing about the breakaway, it looks like a single climb stage when you glance at it. But these two climbs before, like at 8 and a half percent and 9%. A break could lose minutes. You know, they could have seven minutes going into that first climb. And it's down to three at the bottom of the final climb. And as you said, three minutes is going to evaporate. I think GC as well. I think Jonas is a, is a fine Pick, but I, There's a very good chance to. Jonas just ends the, ends the vault to tomorrow. But I'm gonna go out on a limb and say I saw blood in the water in the bass country the other day when Tom Pick dropped him. I'm gonna go plus 700. I've already put the bet in. I've got Almeida winning tomorrow and maybe, maybe not winning the vault tomorrow. But, but, but starting to worry Jonas Van Der Gard. And it's so steep that Almeida, he's like, you know, he's such a steady state climber. I think it, I think it could help him quite a bit.

[B]

Yeah, Yeah. I mean, honestly, I, I think Spencer, if, if we're starting from a point that's going to be gc, I don't think there's anybody who can win except Jonas Almeida or Pitcock. So it's difficult to choose someone else, you know, a breakaway. Breakaway. Who could make it from a breakaway. Jay vine could stay away. I think he's kind of the only one of the whole.

[C]

What about. I mean, I think Jay vine is a good pick there. What about Matthew Ricatello? I don't know as I say that that could be wish casting there. No, especially since he's in the gc.

[B]

But yeah, Jay, not against those guys. You know, I wonder now how for example, I mean. Well, yeah, Carti won, but finally he finished third in that Vuelta, I think. Was it not. Was it not Roglich and Karapas and. And Carti, the top three?

[C]

I think it was not big gaps at all. I think Cardi was very close in the gc.

[B]

So you know, what if, what if nobody can drop each other and for example, a guy like Felix Gal does a Carti. Yeah, that's a possibility also. Who else could win? I mean, Jay Hindley. I don't think so, man. I mean, I don't even think Felix Gal. I mean, it's. He's not going to be with Jonas and with Pitcock and with Almeida. I don't think so. So, you know, just to cover the possibility of a breakaway, I'm gonna take Jay vine as a wild card plus 1400.

[C]

The case for vine would be he's one of probably the only rider in this race not in the gc. Well, I guess that's maybe not true. Maybe one of two riders in the race not in the GC that can climb. He climbs roughly the same speed. Like the other day, he was almost the same speed as the GC riders on that climb where he won. That's very unusual for a breakaway rider. I'm going to go my wild card, Pickcock Plus 1100 on FanDuel because very simple reason, because he's very light. He's the lightest of the GC contenders and he's very strong. So on steep climb, light man, go fast is my thesis there.

[B]

Yeah, I think Pidcock is discovering himself day by day. You know, he's growing day by day. His confidence is through the roof. And yeah, tomorrow it's a new undiscovered terrain for him also steep climb of that distance. But if there's anybody who can give Jonas a run for his money, except Almeida, it's going to be Pitcock. It's for the moment the only one also of the whole Vuelta peloton who put the hurt on Jonas. Only a little bit for a short period of time, but it could be a continuation tomorrow of what we've seen. And yeah, I mean, it would be amazing for the race, man. I mean, if Pitcock drops Jonas tomorrow, that keeps the race wide open, you know, even if he stays with him and beats him in the sprint, that's another possibility. He doesn't really need to drop him.

[C]

Yeah, that. That is the case for Pidcock. He does not need to drop either of those guys to beat them. And they probably lose if they go to the line with them.

[B]

Yeah.

[C]

And it like people ask us how to wait these bets. Tomorrow would be a day where put your favorite if Vindegaard's your favorite, if Almanda is your favorite. I don't know. A hundred units on them. Put like 5 units on your wild card because this is most likely going to be between those two guys.

[B]

Yeah.

[C]

Anything else, Johan, before we take off?

[B]

No, not really. I mean, it's going to be an exciting. I mean, long stage, 202km.

[C]

I know, I was surprised by that.

[B]

That's kind of. That plays a bit into the hand of a breakaway. Right. I mean, it's not a super short stage, so there is a lot of terrain to cover before we hit those three climbs. So a breakaway could have already decent amount of advantage.

[C]

But the terrain for the 150k is not conducive to a good climber. Getting into the breakaway.

[B]

Yeah, exactly. Yeah.

[C]

So that, you know, if you have.

[B]

Also important, important fact, it's going to be good weather tomorrow, which is very important in that, that part of Spain. It's known for rain and, you know, lots of dangerous descents. So that's not going to be a factor tomorrow.

[C]

I don't know if I've ever seen good weather on this climb, so.

[B]

Well, it's going to be better tomorrow.

[C]

Nice. Well, I'm excited and we will be back here to break it down after we finish.

[B]

Okay, Spencer, speak soon. All right, bye.

[A]

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