$100 invested in space startup stocks at IPO was worth roughly $10 by early 2024. Virgin Orbit went from a $3.7 billion valuation to bankruptcy. Astra went public at $2.1 billion without a single rocket that had reached orbit. What happened?

SPACs happened. Special purpose acquisition companies gave pre-revenue space startups a shortcut to public markets, bypassing the scrutiny of a traditional IPO. Investors piled in on forward-looking projections. Then the redemptions started.

In part three of the Thinking on Paper Book Club series on Space to Grow by Matthew Weinzierl and Brendan Rosseau, Mark and Jeremy trace how the money flowed in, why it collapsed, and what replaced it.

NASA's SLS costs $4.1 billion per launch. SpaceX says Starship will cost $10 million. Even if SpaceX is exaggerating by 100x, it's still cheaper. NASA awarded $4 billion to SpaceX and $3.4 billion to Blue Origin for Artemis lunar landers. The agency is evolving from doing it to enabling it.

The question is whether it will still exist in 25 years.

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Chapters

(00:00) What is a SPAC?

(01:30) Why space SPACs failed

(03:20) Virgin Orbit & Astra: the worst examples

(06:00) SPACs vs Crypto: same story?

(08:30) The Stag Hunt: why space needs coordination

(11:00) NASA Artemis explained

(13:00) SLS vs Starship cost breakdown

(17:00) SpaceX & Blue Origin lunar contracts

(20:00) The Moon Race vs China

(22:00) Can NASA survive the commercial space era?