Summary of Podcast Episode: Ep 5 - A Cyber Detente To Catch a Thief: China’s Rise to Cyber Supremacy
Host: Nicole Perlroth
Release Date: April 7, 2025

1. Introduction to the Cyber Detente

In episode five, titled "A Cyber Detente," host Nicole Perlroth delves into a pivotal moment in the escalating cyber conflict between the United States and China. The episode explores the brief period of détente between the two superpowers, the factors that led to its inception, and the subsequent unraveling that reignited cyber tensions.

2. Historical Context of US-China Cyber Conflict

The episode begins by tracing the origins of Chinese cyber espionage against the U.S., highlighting early efforts by the U.S. government to curb China's intellectual property (IP) theft.

Matt Turpin explains:

"[In] 1991, George H.W. Bush brought a Section 301 investigation against the Chinese government for theft of intellectual property and violations of copyrights and other things..."
[02:48]

Despite these efforts, enforcement was lax, primarily due to economic interests and the hope that China's economic growth and integration into the global economy would naturally curb such activities.

3. Obama-Xi Jinping Cyber Detente

A significant turning point occurred on September 25, 2015, when President Barack Obama and President Xi Jinping announced a cyber detente from the Rose Garden at the White House.

Barack Obama stated:

"We have jointly affirmed the principle that governments don't engage in cyber espionage for commercial gain against companies. That all I consider to be progress."
[00:59]

Nicole Perlroth narrates the surprise and skepticism surrounding this agreement, noting that many industry experts and government officials doubted China's commitment to the moratorium.

4. Initial Success and Decrease in Cyberattacks

Following the détente, there was an observable decline in Chinese cyberattacks targeting U.S. businesses. This period saw a significant reduction in breaches, with attacks dropping from dozens per month to mere handfuls.

John Carlin, who led the Justice Department's indictments against the PLA hackers, remarked:

"I was surprised that we reached the norm. And I was even more surprised when we actually saw a decrease in hacks that looked like they were occurring in that space."
[32:08]

Kevin Mandia added:

"We could lock in on the Chinese threat pretty well... and it never comes back up really for a while."
[32:27]

5. Impact of Edward Snowden's Leaks

The détente faced a severe test when Edward Snowden leaked classified NSA documents shortly after the Obama-Xi summit. These revelations shifted global focus to U.S. surveillance practices, undermining the cyber detente by portraying the U.S. as both a victim and perpetrator of cyber espionage.

Nicole Perlroth explains:

"Snowden's timing could not have been more convenient for China. It was the ultimate get out of jail free card."
[17:31]

6. The OPM Cyberattack and Its Aftermath

In 2015, a monumental breach of the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) occurred, exposing sensitive data of approximately 25 million individuals. This attack not only compromised personal information but also severely impacted U.S. intelligence operations by exposing identities of federal employees and potential spies.

Jim Lewis highlighted the personal toll:

"There was a breach of OPM scale... A breach of that magnitude could not be allowed to stand."
[22:01]

Nicole Perlroth underscores the significance:

"Chinese hackers got the minute personal details, background checks and medical histories of every citizen who had ever applied for a security clearance."
[20:47]

7. Breakdown of the Cyber Detente

The OPM breach, coupled with ongoing surveillance scandals revealed by Snowden, eroded trust between the U.S. and China. The administration faced immense pressure to respond, leading to intensified cyber measures against China.

Barack Obama declared:

"We're going to have to be much more aggressive, much more attentive than we have been, and this problem is not going to go away. It is going to accelerate."
[23:58]

Despite attempts at diplomacy, including backchannel negotiations, China eventually resumed its cyber espionage activities with increased sophistication.

8. Resurgence of Chinese Cyberattacks

Post-détente, Chinese cyber operations evolved dramatically. Hackers became more advanced, employing machine learning and artificial intelligence to sift through vast datasets stolen over the years. These efforts aimed to enhance China’s intelligence capabilities, targeting personal data to undermine U.S. espionage efforts.

Matt Turpin summarizes:

"The Chinese were building a repository of Americans personal data... This wasn't a violation of the Obama Xi moratorium on IP theft. This was Spycraft 101."
[34:41]

Steve Stone warns:

"The Chinese regime is taking all that information about us... Suddenly they know more about us than we know about ourselves."
[42:05]

9. Conclusion and Future Implications

The episode concludes by reflecting on the fragile nature of cyber détente and the ongoing cyber arms race between the U.S. and China. Perlroth emphasizes the necessity of robust cyber policies and international cooperation to curb state-sponsored cyber threats.

Jim Lewis advises:

"We have to come up with an engagement plan that eventually leads to China being more responsible in international relations."
[28:07]

As the podcast hints at future developments, it underscores the continuing challenges in achieving a stable cyber relationship amidst technological advancements and geopolitical tensions.

Notable Quotes:

• Barack Obama (00:59):
  "We have jointly affirmed the principle that governments don't engage in cyber espionage for commercial gain against companies. That all I consider to be progress."

• Matt Turpin (02:48):
  "[In] 1991, George H.W. Bush brought a Section 301 investigation against the Chinese government for theft of intellectual property..."

• John Carlin (32:08):
  "I was surprised that we reached the norm. And I was even more surprised when we actually saw a decrease in hacks that looked like they were occurring in that space."

• Jim Lewis (22:01):
  "There was a breach of OPM scale... A breach of that magnitude could not be allowed to stand."

• Steve Stone (42:05):
  "The Chinese regime is taking all that information about us... Suddenly they know more about us than we know about ourselves."

This episode of To Catch a Thief provides an in-depth analysis of a critical juncture in U.S.-China cyber relations, offering listeners a comprehensive understanding of the complexities and stakes involved in international cyber diplomacy.