Podcast
Trading Global Macro Podcast
Hosted by StoneX Group Inc. · ENGLISH
Join veteran analysts John Kicklighter and Matt Weller as they discuss key currents across the financial markets in Trading Global Macro from StoneX. Each episode cuts through the noise to deliver big picture but actionable insights on how macroeconomic themes and geopolitical events impact the forex, indices, commodities, interest rates and other key markets.
Whether you’re tracking developing market trends, disruptive technologies, or central bank decisions; Trading Global Macro looks to breaks down the critical forces driving capital around the world to help you plan your next move.
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22episodes
Episodes
Newest firstAll episodes
Correlations Can Give Great Market Insights, But Beware
3d ago00:25:23Tap to summarizeTrading Global Macro Podcast – Ep. 24In this episode of the StoneX Trading Global Macro Podcast, John Kicklighter and Matt Weller discuss how traders can use correlation across forex, equities, commodities, interest rates and crypto without mistaking the alignment for causation.They cover how correlations can support hedging, confirm breakouts, identify systemic influences like ‘risk-on/risk-off’ conditions and reveal shifting macro narratives. The discussion also examines why relationships such as stocks and bonds, dollar-yen and Japanese yields, Bitcoin and gold, or Bitcoin and the S&P 500 can change over time.They discuss among other correlations: 🔷 The relationship between stocks and bonds for the traditional portfolio🔷 Attempts at undermining USD/JPY’s relationship to yield differentials🔷 Leveraging different correlations against the Dollar to assess core macro trends🔷 How Bitcoin was billed as a market participant and what correlations actually reveal Be sure to like, subscribe, and follow for weekly insights into the global forces driving FX, equities, commodities, interest rates, and more.
Transcribe →Wall Street vs Main Street: Record Highs in Stocks vs Record Low Consumer Sentiment
3w ago00:27:26Tap to summarizeTrading Global Macro Podcast – Ep. 23In this episode of the Trading Global Macro Podcast, John Kicklighter and Matt Weller examine the growing divergence between Wall Street and Main Street. With the S&P 500 hitting record highs while consumer sentiment falls to historic lows, they break down the drivers behind this disconnect, including corporate profitability, pricing power, and consumer pressures.The discussion explores whether this gap is sustainable, what factors could force convergence, and how traders and investors should interpret conflicting signals in today’s macro environment. Other general topics include: 🔷 S&P 500 at record highs vs. University of Michigan consumer sentiment at record lows🔷 Why corporate earnings remain strong despite macro uncertainty🔷 How companies are passing costs (tariffs, fuel) onto consumers🔷 The role of AI in boosting efficiency while increasing consumer anxiety🔷 Limitations and distortions in consumer sentiment surveys🔷 Why Wall Street and Main Street must eventually convergeBe sure to like, subscribe, and follow for weekly insights into the global forces driving FX, equities, commodities, interest rates, and more.
Transcribe →What to Expect From the Fed in 2026 Amid The Warsh Transition
3w ago00:26:28Tap to summarizeTrading Global Macro Podcast – Ep. 22In this episode of the Trading Global Macro Podcast from StoneX, Matt Weller and John Kicklighter are joined by Vincent Deluard, Director of Global Macro Strategy at StoneX, for a deep dive into the evolving Federal Reserve backdrop. The conversation explores the likely transition from Jerome Powell, the implications of a more politically charged Fed, and whether markets are underestimating the risks tied to weakening institutional credibility. Vincent also examines why inflation may remain structurally above the Fed’s stated 2% target, how shifting inflation measures can shape policy narratives, and why a divided central bank could create more uncertainty across rates, equities, and broader risk assets. The discussion also touches on the Fed’s balance sheet, the tension between optics and economic reality, and why “higher for longer” may still be the default path into 2026. In this episode: 🔷 The likely transition from Jerome Powell to Kevin Warsh and what it could mean for Fed policy🔷 Whether political pressure on the Fed is changing the institution🔷 Why inflation may remain closer to 3–4% in practice🔷 The debate around the Fed’s balance sheet and market distortion🔷 What a less credible or more divided Fed could mean for equities and rates🔷 Vincent’s view on where policy may be headed by the end of 2026 Be sure to like, subscribe, and follow for weekly insights into the global forces driving FX, equities, commodities, interest rates, and more.
Transcribe →From Hormuz to Washington DC: Recalibrating the 2026 Rate Outlook
Mar 2500:23:37Tap to summarizeTrading Global Macro Podcast – Ep. 21In this episode of the Trading Global Macro Podcast from StoneX, Matt Weller and John Kicklighter examine how the escalating US-Iran conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz are reshaping the global macro outlook for 2026.The conversation focuses on one of the biggest questions facing markets right now: are central banks done cutting rates, and could some be forced to turn more hawkish again? Matt and John break down the inflation implications of rising energy prices, the risk of broader supply-chain pass-through effects, and why policymakers may be increasingly concerned about keeping inflation expectations anchored.They also explore: 🔷Why oil and fertilizer disruptions matter for inflation 🔷How the Bank of England, ECB, Fed, RBA, and BOJ compare on the hawk-dove spectrum 🔷Why markets have shifted from pricing rate cuts to considering possible hikes 🔷The growing tension between inflation risks and slowing economic activity 🔷What this means for FX, fixed income, equities, and broader risk sentimentBe sure to like, subscribe, and follow for weekly insights into the global forces driving FX, equities, commodities, interest rates, and more.
Transcribe →The “TACO Trade”: How Markets Are Shaping Tariffs, Iran Policy and Financial Stability
Mar 1300:16:59Tap to summarizeTrading Global Macro Podcast – Ep. 20In this episode of the Trading Global Macro Podcast from StoneX, John Kicklighter and Matt Weller examine the so-called “TACO trade” associated to US President Donald Trump, which describes the idea that controversial policies are reversed when markets push back.While the acronym may be associated to the controversial US President, it may not be all that unusual historically nor that necessarily detrimental. They discuss historical corollaries in: 🔷 The UK mini budget crisis that ousted a Prime Minister🔷 A reversal of support for Lehman Brothers during the Great Financial Crisis🔷 ECB President Mario Draghi's 'whatever it takes' commitment to EURUSD below 1.40🔷 The Swiss National Bank's abandonment of a core policy of a 1.20 floor on EURCHF🔷 The open-ended influence of the so-called 'Fed Put'Be sure to like, subscribe, and follow for weekly insights into the global forces driving FX, equities, commodities, interest rates, and more.
Transcribe →Fear, Greed, and Positioning: A Practical Guide to Sentiment
Mar 500:26:17Tap to summarizeTrading Global Macro Podcast – Ep. 19In this episode of the Trading Global Macro Podcast, Matt Weller and John Kicklighter break down sentiment as the “third leg of the stool” alongside fundamentals and technicals, and explore how emotions, expectations, and positioning can amplify trends, reversals, and volatility.They walk through a practical framework for evaluating sentiment indicators, including:🔷 Why some popular “sentiment” gauges (like CNN’s Fear & Greed Index) may be closer to technical proxies🔷 The pros and cons of survey-based measures like the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey🔷 The promises, and limitations, of prediction markets (e.g., Kalshi/Polymarket)🔷 Positioning and leverage indicators like FINRA margin debt and why context matters🔷 The Commitment of Traders (COT) report and why it’s a favorite for identifying extremes (with timing limitations)🔷 Retail sentiment tools (like broker positioning data) and how to use them responsibly🔷 “Interest gauges” such as Google Trends and how AI might help structure unstructured sentiment signalsBe sure to like, subscribe, and follow for weekly insights into the global forces driving FX, equities, commodities, interest rates, and more.
Transcribe →Recession Signals and the Limits of Leading Indicators
Feb 300:23:15Tap to summarizeTrading Global Macro Podcast – Ep. 18In this episode of the Trading Global Macro Podcast, John Kicklighter and Matt Weller take a deep dive into one of the most persistent market questions of recent years: when is the next recession, and how can markets actually see it coming?The discussion explores the strengths and shortcomings of commonly cited recession indicators, including leading economic indicators, official recession definitions, and market-based signals. John and Matt examine why some indicators have repeatedly warned of recession without one materializing, and why relying on a single signal can be misleading in the current economic cycle.Themes covered:🔷 What defines a recession in the U.S. and who decides🔷 Why leading economic indicators have sent repeated false signals🔷 The role of services versus manufacturing in assessing economic health🔷 Market-based indicators, including equity ratios and yield curve spreads🔷 Why no single indicator is sufficient and what would shift recession riskBe sure to like, subscribe, and follow for weekly insights into the global forces driving FX, equities, commodities, interest rates, and more.
Transcribe →When Markets Turn on Countries: How Economies Become Global Pariahs
Jan 2600:24:43Tap to summarizeTrading Global Macro Podcast – Ep. 17 In this episode of the Trading Global Macro Podcast, Matt Weller and John Kicklighter explore what it means for an economy to become a “pariah” in global markets. From extreme cases like Iran, Venezuela, and Argentina to more nuanced historical examples such as Italy, the UK in the 1970s, and modern-day China, the discussion examines how credibility, policy stability, trade practices, and market confidence shape a country’s standing on the world stage.The conversation then turns to a timely and thought-provoking question: Could similar pressures ever be applied to the United States? Matt and John unpack the limits of geopolitical alignment, the power of financial markets as a disciplining force, and why size, scale, and reserve currency status make the U.S. a uniquely difficult economy to isolate.Rather than predictions or prescriptions, this episode offers a framework for understanding how market trust is built, and how it can erode, through currencies, bond yields, equities, and global capital flows.Be sure to like, subscribe, and follow for weekly insights into the global forces driving FX, equities, commodities, interest rates, and more.
Transcribe →Central Bank Independence: Why It Matters, Who Lacks It, and Why the Fed Is Under Pressure
Jan 1300:30:57Tap to summarizeTrading Global Macro Podcast – Ep. 16In this episode of the Trading Global Macro Podcast, John Kicklighter and Matt Weller break down the concept of central bank independence and why it has become such a critical issue for global markets. With renewed political pressure on the U.S. Federal Reserve, they explore why independence exists, what happens when it is lost, and how different central banks operate across the spectrum from government control to full autonomy.Using real-world examples, the discussion examines the economic consequences of limited independence, the trade-offs between short-term political goals and long-term monetary stability, and how credibility plays a central role in inflation outcomes, currency performance, and investor confidence. The episode also places recent developments at the Federal Reserve into historical context and outlines what market participants should be watching next.Themes covered:🔷 What central bank independence means and why it exists🔷 The tension between political election cycles and long-term monetary policy goals🔷 Economic outcomes when central banks lack independence, with examples from Turkey and China🔷 Partial independence and policy coordination at the Bank of Japan🔷 Pressure on the U.S. Federal Reserve, historical parallels, and implications for inflation and credibilityBe sure to like, subscribe, and follow for weekly insights into the global forces driving FX, equities, commodities, interest rates, and more.
Transcribe →Trading in Extreme Market Conditions: Strategies to Manage Volatility, Liquidity & Uncertainty
Jan 700:25:06Tap to summarizeTrading Global Macro Podcast – Ep. 15Welcome to the Trading Global Macro Podcast from StoneX! In this episode, John Kicklighter and Matt Weller dive deep into extreme market conditions: what they are, how to identify them, and strategies to navigate volatility, liquidity challenges, and major event risks.They explore:🔷Price Extremes vs. Price Movement: Why context matters🔷Liquidity Distortions: Seasonal and structural impacts🔷Uncertainty & Event Risk: How to manage gray swans, black swans, and scheduled surprises🔷Correlation Breakdowns: What happens when diversification fails🔷Practical tips for protecting your capital during turbulent timesWhether you’re a seasoned trader or just curious about global macro trends, this episode offers actionable insights to help you stay informed and prepared.Subscribe for weekly episodes on macro trends and trading strategies, and don't forget like & share if you found this discussion helpful!
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