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Trading Global Macro Podcast – Ep. 18

In this episode of the Trading Global Macro Podcast, John Kicklighter and Matt Weller take a deep dive into one of the most persistent market questions of recent years: when is the next recession, and how can markets actually see it coming?

The discussion explores the strengths and shortcomings of commonly cited recession indicators, including leading economic indicators, official recession definitions, and market-based signals. John and Matt examine why some indicators have repeatedly warned of recession without one materializing, and why relying on a single signal can be misleading in the current economic cycle.

Themes covered:

🔷 What defines a recession in the U.S. and who decides

🔷 Why leading economic indicators have sent repeated false signals

🔷 The role of services versus manufacturing in assessing economic health

🔷 Market-based indicators, including equity ratios and yield curve spreads

🔷 Why no single indicator is sufficient and what would shift recession risk

Be sure to like, subscribe, and follow for weekly insights into the global forces driving FX, equities, commodities, interest rates, and more.

43:Tb79,