Podcast Summary: "Biogas Could Power the Hardest Parts of Net Zero"

Transmission Podcast – Hosted by Ed Porter (Modo Energy)
Guest: Philip Lucas, Founder & CEO of Future Biogas
Date: March 26, 2026

Overview

In this episode of Transmission, Ed Porter sits down with Philip Lucas, founder and CEO of Future Biogas, to delve into the strategic role of biogas—specifically biomethane—in accelerating the net-zero transition. The conversation explores biogas’s promise as a scalable, clean solution for sectors that are challenging to electrify, such as industrial heat, shipping, and aviation. The discussion also foregrounds the economics, scalability, feedstock issues, business models, the future of the gas grid, and the need for policy and system-level thinking.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Biogas: Misunderstood Potential

[01:23]

• Myth-busting: “The one thing everybody gets wrong is that they consider biogas to be a niche waste treatment technology rather than potentially a massive part of the solution for high heat applications and difficult to decarbonize sectors.” (Philip Lucas, [01:29])
• Biogas is often pigeonholed as waste management, when it can be a robust energy vector for hard-to-abate industries.

2. Biogas Basics: How It Works

[02:01]

• Produced via anaerobic digestion of organic wastes, agricultural byproducts, or energy crops, yielding a methane (usable as a 1:1 substitute for natural gas) and carbon dioxide mix.
• Storage visual: Those green domes in the countryside are gas storage units, sometimes layered like old-school gasometers ([02:54]).
• The produced gas can either generate electricity onsite or (once ‘scrubbed’ to remove CO₂) be injected as biomethane directly into the gas network ([03:08]).

3. Biomethane: Moving from Power Generation to Grid Injection

[04:40]

• The sector’s focus has shifted—from burning biogas onsite for electricity (with heat losses) to upgrading and injecting biomethane into the grid: “Sticking it into the gas grid allows you to transport it anywhere...which, remember, across Europe is connected. Then you can use it for difficult to decarbonize stuff like high-temperature applications and vehicle fuels.” (Philip Lucas, [04:40])

4. Major Applications & Prioritization

[06:51]

• Ranking future uses:
  • Highest priority: High-temperature industrial processes (glass, steel, bricks, chemicals), which are hard to electrify.
  • Significant roles: Sustainable marine and aviation fuels.
  • Biogas/biomethane should not primarily target electricity generation, as renewables now cover that efficiently.
• “Gas is ... very easy to store. The gas network ... stores a vast amount of energy.” (Philip Lucas, [05:52])

5. Biomethane Economics & Market Gaps

[10:15]

• Cost gap: Unsubsidized biomethane currently costs about 2.5x natural gas—about £100/MWh vs. £40–60/MWh for fossil gas (with carbon pricing) ([10:27] – [11:14]).
• Bridging the gap:
  • Expect carbon prices to rise, industries to face tighter emissions trading, and improved energy efficiency to reduce overall use.
  • Early adopters (e.g., AstraZeneca) accept higher costs to secure verifiable, additional, ‘greenwash-proof’ decarbonization ([12:07]).

6. Case Study: AstraZeneca’s Net Zero Push

[12:07]

• AstraZeneca set and achieved near-complete scope 1 & 2 net-zero targets, buying unsubsidized biomethane to displace fossil gas use at UK sites ([12:41]).
• Grid balancing: Their gas comes from multiple locations, managed via the network and “mass balancing” by a shipper ([14:08]).

7. Future of the Gas Grid

[15:12]

• Interest in hydrogen has waned; gas network now seen as a crucial asset: “The gas grid is ... the biggest battery in the country by far and away.” (Philip Lucas, [15:31])
• Gas network usage will decline as electrification expands, but the core system will remain critical for backup power and high-temp applications ([15:48]).
• UK gas demand projected to drop from 700 TWh/year to 150–250 TWh/year by 2050—a third of today’s use ([17:33]).

8. Biomethane’s Scalable Role

[17:54]

• Biomethane could scale from today’s 5–6 TWh to 50–60 TWh/year by 2050, possibly up to 100 TWh: “That could be half or more of our total gas use in 2050 for stuff we really can’t do without.” ([17:54])
• Change in narrative: Not a “niche application,” but a substantial pillar in the net-zero system.

9. Grid Optimization & Local Use

[19:32]

• The network may “trim” parts that become underutilized with urban/rural divergence ([19:57]).
• However, maintaining main pipelines remains cost-effective due to long pipeline lifespans and existing sunk costs ([24:46]).

10. Expanding Feedstock & Agricultural Integration

[28:37]

• UK agriculture offers major opportunities: biogas crops can be part of crop rotations, improving soil health and farmer resilience while generating gas ([28:45]).
• Returning nutrient-rich digestate to fields closes the nutrient loop—a big sustainability plus ([31:03]).

11. Biogas Inputs: Breadth & Practicalities

[33:52]

• Multiple streams:
  • Sewage sludge digestion (ongoing for years).
  • Food waste collection/upgrading.
  • Animal manures (varies by livestock practices; indoor farming makes capture easier).
  • On-farm energy crops, especially where sustainable in rotations.
• Industry has matured on dealing with contaminants and scaling up operational resilience ([37:51]).

12. Subsidy Evolution & Market Support Mechanisms

[40:13]

• Subsidies began generous for small plants, then moved to larger, more efficient projects.
• UK’s Green Gas Support Scheme runs to 2030; likely to transition to “obligation” models (requiring a rising % of biomethane in supplies)—mirroring sustainable aviation fuel mandates ([42:46]).
• “We think ... there would be a market for unsubsidized [biomethane] ... and lots of people who actually don’t want subsidized gas.” ([41:06])

13. Systemic & Policy Reflections

[44:17]

• Lucas advocates more state-led infrastructure planning and investment (e.g., for nuclear, grid storage, long-lead projects): "If you could build nuclear like we built coal plants in the 50s–70s—we’d be in a different world.” ([46:23])
• For biomethane, appropriate market signals will drive scaling; for ‘deep infrastructure,’ government must step in.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On scaling biomethane:
  “If we could make 60 to 100 terawatt hours, that could be half or more of our total gas use in 2050 for stuff that we really can’t do without.” – Philip Lucas ([17:54])

• On the grid as an energy store:
  “The gas grid is ... the biggest battery in the country by far and away.” – Philip Lucas ([15:31])

• On the priority of efficiency:
  “The cheapest kilowatt hour is the one you don’t use. That’s one of the key messages that we’ve always failed to put right at the top.” – Philip Lucas ([22:59])

• On the fertilizer by-product:
  “It’s a great fertilizer. It’s a brilliant organic fertilizer that goes back on the crops.” – Philip Lucas ([31:10])

• On infrastructure philosophy:
  “The only reason we could privatize [infrastructure in the 80s/90s] is because we’d spent the previous 40 years building them up. That’s the place for government—building stuff like that up.” – Philip Lucas ([44:17])

• On taking a bath in digestate for charity:
  “Five years ago for Red Nose Day, I took a bath in Digest 8. ... I wore a very nice stripy Victorian bathing suit.” – Philip Lucas ([31:00])

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Biogas Misconceptions & Basics: [01:23]–[04:34]
• Main Uses & Value Proposition: [05:31]–[08:32]
• Cost Comparison & Early Markets: [10:15]–[14:28]
• Gas Grid’s Future Role: [15:12]–[19:31]
• Scaling Potential & Feedstock: [26:07]–[33:52]
• Circular Benefits for Agriculture: [31:10]–[33:52]
• Subsidies & Policy Mechanisms: [40:13]–[43:57]
• Big-Picture Policy & Infrastructure: [44:17]–[47:51]
• Summing Up: Volumes & Growth Challenge: [47:51]–[48:15]

Closing Tone

The episode blends candor, optimism, and pragmatic realism—Lucas is forthright about challenges (costs, policy gaps, technical issues), but confident about biomethane’s role if supported appropriately by market and policy frameworks. The conversation stresses systemic thinking: prioritizing efficiency, leveraging infrastructure, and being clear-eyed about where biogas can—and can’t—make the biggest impact.

In summary:
Biogas/biomethane is not a niche solution but could provide a substantial chunk of the net-zero journey for sectors that stubbornly resist electrification. With the right scale, market signals, and system integration, it can transform both energy and agricultural landscapes—making the most of legacy infrastructure while supporting a circular, resilient rural economy.