The atmosphere is unpredictable, and weather forecasts are far more reliable on some days than others. For anyone trading power or gas across Europe, knowing the difference is everything. It's what separates a confident call from an expensive guess.

In this conversation, Ed is joined by Matt Dobson - Head of European Energy Forecasting and Emma Patmore, Energy Meteorologist from MetDesk. They walk us through when they can trust what they're seeing and when they can't, and how they turn an uncertain forecast into something traders can actually act on. Along the way they cover wind droughts (or Dunkelflaute), a possible record El Niño, river levels that shut down power stations, and the rise of AI weather models

They cover

- How weather forecast accuracy isn't fixed: Why a day-ahead wind forecast lands within 10–15% around 80% of the time, but a shifted low-pressure track can swing output 30–40%.

- Dunkelflaute explained: How a blocking high-pressure system causes a wind drought, and why the longest recent German event ran nine days in early November 2024.

- El Niño and energy markets: Why a milder autumn means lower heating demand and gives traders reason to sell Q4 gas.

- AI weather models vs traditional models: why AI is pulling ahead at the 10–20 day horizon while traditional models stay sharper on fine-scale detail.

- Heatwaves and nuclear power: How 40°C heat in France and low river levels force nuclear curtailment and Rhine freight limits, echoing 2022.

Want to see how weather is moving European power and gas prices right now? Ask Ko, Modo Energy's AI analyst: Free sign up: https://modoenergy.com/sign-up?utm_source=podcast&utm_medium=podcast_apps&utm_campaign=metdesk&utm_content=ko_signup

Read the companion article here.

You can watch or listen to new episodes every Tuesday. Transmission is a Modo Energy production. Your host is Ed Porter - Director EMEA & APAC at Modo Energy.

Chapters

0:00 - How weather forecasting drives energy markets

1:01 - What everyone gets wrong about weather forecasting

1:26 - Why forecast accuracy changes with the time horizon

4:03 - Saharan dust and solar power generation

6:02 - How weather varies over short distances

7:11 - Dunkelflaute explained: wind drought conditions

8:20 - German wind power and the nine-day wind drought

11:08 - Teleconnections: El Nino, ENSO and the MJO

12:54 - Record El Nino forecast and what it means

17:30 - Trading El Nino: gas, hydro and Alpine snow

17:56 - Why traders go short Q4 gas

18:58 - ECMWF data and ensemble forecasting

19:35 - How weather ensembles work: 151 members

21:39 - AI weather models vs traditional forecasting

23:25 - Are weather forecasts getting more accurate?

26:17 - Climate change and weather forecasting

27:50 - French heatwaves and nuclear power curtailment

31:10 - Low Rhine levels and freight restrictions

33:11 - The polar vortex and sudden stratospheric warming

36:15 - The Beast from the East explained