28:I[46696,["/_next/static/chunks/a945bbd300834012.js","/_next/static/chunks/4060b63f78e0382c.js","/_next/static/chunks/65c5d5dcc87c22c9.js","/_next/static/chunks/15a1b1fbd3cf7d4a.js","/_next/static/chunks/653d605fffff2e75.js","/_next/static/chunks/fa59d51a8b0726c5.js","/_next/static/chunks/a33d1a413064ef53.js","/_next/static/chunks/381ae72bfa6637bb.js","/_next/static/chunks/022589ef34b8ee03.js","/_next/static/chunks/efa6f06dc5162244.js"],"Toaster"] 29:I[22016,["/_next/static/chunks/a945bbd300834012.js","/_next/static/chunks/4060b63f78e0382c.js","/_next/static/chunks/65c5d5dcc87c22c9.js","/_next/static/chunks/15a1b1fbd3cf7d4a.js","/_next/static/chunks/653d605fffff2e75.js","/_next/static/chunks/fa59d51a8b0726c5.js","/_next/static/chunks/a33d1a413064ef53.js","/_next/static/chunks/381ae72bfa6637bb.js","/_next/static/chunks/022589ef34b8ee03.js","/_next/static/chunks/efa6f06dc5162244.js"],""] 2a:I[5500,["/_next/static/chunks/a945bbd300834012.js","/_next/static/chunks/4060b63f78e0382c.js","/_next/static/chunks/65c5d5dcc87c22c9.js","/_next/static/chunks/15a1b1fbd3cf7d4a.js","/_next/static/chunks/653d605fffff2e75.js","/_next/static/chunks/fa59d51a8b0726c5.js","/_next/static/chunks/a33d1a413064ef53.js","/_next/static/chunks/381ae72bfa6637bb.js","/_next/static/chunks/022589ef34b8ee03.js","/_next/static/chunks/efa6f06dc5162244.js"],"Image"] 2b:I[58016,["/_next/static/chunks/a945bbd300834012.js","/_next/static/chunks/4060b63f78e0382c.js","/_next/static/chunks/65c5d5dcc87c22c9.js","/_next/static/chunks/15a1b1fbd3cf7d4a.js","/_next/static/chunks/653d605fffff2e75.js","/_next/static/chunks/fa59d51a8b0726c5.js","/_next/static/chunks/a33d1a413064ef53.js","/_next/static/chunks/381ae72bfa6637bb.js","/_next/static/chunks/022589ef34b8ee03.js","/_next/static/chunks/efa6f06dc5162244.js"],"ProcessEpisodeButton"] 2c:T73e,

美国大选的悬念在11月7日已经揭晓，这一期节目我们想跟大家聊聊在大选期间开始受到关注的一个去中心化预测市场---Polymarket，Polymarket上的交易结果甚至早在美国诸多地区开始正式投票之前就已准确预测了大选结果，更有人通过这次大选，在Polymarket上获得了超过8500万美元的收益，一起来听听这个市场到底是什么来头吧。

本期主播：

活在裆下、老饕

本期内容：

02:20 Polymarket的交易结果提前昭示了美国大选结果

06:43 Polymarket的特殊性：融合博彩与股票的新形式

09:55 与博彩的区别：去中心化、可实时交易、返还流动性奖励

17:07 Polymarket如何盈利

19:03 Skin in the Game：“鲸鱼”的邻居民意调查法

30:47 做好决策的首要条件：将你的筹码摆上桌

35:31 好的决策需要充足的信息和不断修改的预测

37:38 成长型思维和贝叶斯原则

44:02 群体智慧的关键点：群体的多样性、独立性、分散性

50:36 组建自己的内阁

Polymarket上的预测走势图

AI提供的贝叶斯原则范例

本期音乐：

Showtime --- Nicholas Britell/Robert Glasper

本期推荐书籍：

《非对称风险》纳西姆·塔勒布著

《超预测》菲利普 E. 泰洛克著

本期文稿后续将发布在微信公众号：虚实之间True Imagination

节目微博：虚实de老饕、虚实de活在裆下

E054 Polymarket：预测美国大选、颠覆传统博彩的新玩法？

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