Maria Konnikova earned a PhD in psychology at Columbia studying human decision-making. She then took her research into the most unforgiving laboratory there is: the poker table. From playing her first hand of poker in 2017, to training under the legendary Erik Seidel, and becoming a poker champion, Maria sits down with Michael the day before playing in the World Series of Poker in Las Vegas, to share the secrets to making winning decisions.

They break down why the best hand wins only 12% of the time and what that means for skill and luck in your own life. Maria explains the illusion of control, winner's tilt, and how to actually read tells (watch the hands, not the face). She also covers why a 1% edge matters more than you think, how to avoid the risk of ruin, and when to walk away from a bad investment, a bad job, or a bad friendship.

Maria is the author of “The Biggest Bluff: How I Learned to Pay Attention, Master Myself, and Win.” Her other books include The Confidence Game and Mastermind.

She also writes The Leap, a weekly Substack about decision making.

Two Percent is hosted by Michael Easter. Today’s episode was produced by Joey Fischground, Robbie Hiser, Dana Brawer and Julia Nutter. From Kaleidoscope, our executive producers are Mangesh Hattikudur and Kate Osborn and Julia Nutter. From iHeart, our executive producers are Katrina Norvell and Nikki Ettore. Our Head of Video is Maria Paz Mendez Hodes. This episode was edited by Ryan Mulhern. Our theme music is by the Heater Manager.

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