Not a soul on this planet knows what comes next in the war theater. Because that’s war. But we can anticipate what comes next for the U.S. and global economy, or at least game out certain scenarios. This isn’t just another discretionary “police action” on the other side of the world or a simple regime change. This war is wired directly into the global energy, food, and financial systems. But a proper analysis must acknowledge how the circumstances of the U.S. economy and our monetary and fiscal policies have changed. There is no direct antecedent to the situation in which we find ourselves, which makes the folly of this war all the more absurd. We didn’t just launch a war. We may have just pulled the fire alarm on the entire world economy.

Resources

John J. Mearsheimer: Big Trouble Ahead in Iran

U.S. Energy Information Administration: Amid regional conflict, the Strait of Hormuz remains critical oil chokepoint

EnergyNow: CHARTED: Oil Trade Through the Strait of Hormuz by Country

Reuters: Asia’s oil and LNG dependence on the Middle East

Institute for Economics & Peace: Economic Consequences of War on the U.S. Economy

Global Institute for Sustainable Prosperity: Modern Money and the War Treasury

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland: Fiscal Dominance and US Monetary: 1940–1975

UNFTR Resources

Video: Iran War Could Wreck the Entire World Economy

Essay: The Iran War Could Wreck the Global Economy.

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