This week Ian's away, so Justin Lebbon is joined by Sean Wright, chief insights and analytics officer at Guideline, for a data-led tour of where brand budgets are actually flowing. The conversation moves from Meta's scandal-proof growth to the heating DSP wars and the awkward economics of shifting money out of linear and into streaming.

Meta keeps powering through: Scandals tracked back to 2009 show little impact — revenue up ~21% on average in the quarter after, with agency ad spend holding around 17%.
A slowdown that isn't about morals: Wright's hypothesis is that Meta's "AI everything" tools are driving up costs and underdelivering ROAS for sophisticated brands, while SMBs love the point-click simplicity.
The top-three squeeze: Of every £3 spent, two go to the major platforms, leaving thousands of publishers fighting for scraps.
DSP wars: Four players (Google/DV360, Trade Desk, Yahoo, Amazon) now hold ~85% share, up from ~75%. Amazon has jumped from under 10% to just under 20% in ~18 months; long-tail DSPs (MIQ, StackAdapt, etc.) are losing ground.
Trade Desk feud: Leaked Holdco memos and public sparring over take rates and transparency — but Guideline's Q1 data shows Trade Desk roughly holding, with ~13% global growth versus low single digits in the US.
Streaming vs linear: Consumption hasn't left linear at the rate dollars did. Only ~25c of every US linear dollar lands back on streaming (~15p in the UK, ~20c CAD in Canada), partly due to streaming CPMs pricing 5x above cheap linear.
Pricing nuance: The big three are near line-priced globally, while UK streaming looks underpriced versus US/Canada equivalents — an opportunity to grow rates or stay ultra-competitive.
OTT in freefall: Video/OTT CPMs have fallen almost 40% in 18 months, driven by an influx of ad inventory, programmatic shift, and Amazon's low-price entry — with FAST/BVOD around 85% transacted programmatically.

Key takeaways

Meta's scandals — tracked since 2009 — have barely dented growth: ~21% average revenue rise in the quarter after, agency spend holding ~17%.
The recent slowdown likely stems from Meta's AI tools raising costs without delivering ROAS for sophisticated brands, even as SMBs embrace the simplicity.
Four DSPs now control ~85% of market share; Amazon surged from under 10% to nearly 20% in about 18 months while long-tail DSPs lose ground.
Despite leaked Holdco memos and public sparring, Trade Desk is roughly holding — ~13% global growth but only low single digits in the US.
Streaming isn't replacing linear dollars: only ~25c of every US linear dollar returns to streaming, partly because streaming CPMs run ~5x cheap linear.
Video/OTT CPMs have dropped nearly 40% in 18 months as inventory floods in and buying shifts programmatic — UK streaming remains notably underpriced versus US/Canada.