In this episode of Unfiltered, Justin Lebbon and Ian Whittaker examine whether ad tech is facing its reckoning. From a finance lens, Ian explains why the market has turned skeptical on the sector — and why the biggest platforms, not the independent DSPs, increasingly hold the power.

The Trade Desk's fall: Decent Q1 numbers, yet the stock is down ~70% over the period — a story of collapsing multiples, perceived risk, and doubts about future growth.
Platforms own the pipes: Amazon and Google are taking DSP share while smaller players get squeezed; a handful of companies control up to 90% of new media spend.
The Standard Oil parallel: Ian argues dominance comes not from sheer size but from controlling the choke points — just as Rockefeller controlled the route to market via railroad deals.
Differentiation survives: Players with proprietary data and strong client relationships can defend value; commodity middlemen sitting in the gap are most at risk.
Agencies move back in: As TV money shifts online, proprietary trading and rebates prop up agency margins — but the deeper problem is that media buying and planning is now priced as a commodity.
AI as the efficiency tool: It has the potential to overturn ad tech economics, driving fewer steps, lower cost and pressure on fees.
What premium publishers must do: Simplify processes, push money toward working media, and build or white-label their own controlled solutions to protect CPMs.

Key takeaways

The Trade Desk's ~70% share-price decline is driven less by weak numbers than by collapsing multiples, higher perceived risk, and lost faith in future growth.
Amazon and Google are taking DSP share and squeezing smaller players, who lack the scale and balance sheets to compete.
Ad tech's power dynamic mirrors Standard Oil: control of the choke points, not sheer size, is what matters.
Ad tech players with proprietary data or strong client relationships can defend their value; commodity middlemen are most exposed to consolidation.
Agency margins increasingly rely on proprietary trading and rebates because core media buying and planning is now priced as a commodity.
Premium publishers should simplify their processes and build or white-label controlled solutions to keep money flowing to working media and protect CPMs.