unSeminary Podcast Episode Summary
Episode Title: Your Church’s Growth Is Killing Your Church’s Growth
Host: Rich Birch
Date: October 21, 2025
Overview:
In this solo episode, Rich Birch dives into a counterintuitive and urgent message for church leaders: unchecked growth can actually threaten a church’s long-term impact. Drawing on personal stories, current church trends, and practical metrics, Rich lays out five crucial areas that leaders must monitor and strengthen to ensure true, sustainable health—beyond just rising attendance numbers.
Key Discussion Points and Insights
1. Growth Can Breed Complacency
- Personal Analogy: Rich starts with an anecdote about his own experience as a junior high high jumper who never adapted his strategy despite early success and quickly hit a ceiling when others innovated.
"Growth can make you lazy. ...I never changed, I never adapted.” — Rich Birch (02:44)
- Main Point: Church growth can feel validating—more people, buzz, resources—but it often masks underlying weaknesses. Rapid growth, if left unexamined, can destabilize the foundation of the ministry.
2. Five Critical Metrics Every Growing Church Must Watch
1. First-Time Guest Capture Rate
- Why It Matters: Without systematic collection of guest contact info, a crowd is not a community.
- Key Benchmark: Aim for 2% of weekly attendance as documented first-time guests. E.g., A church of 1,000 should gather info from at least 20 new guests each week.
- Action Steps:
- Audit your capture rate over the last 3 months.
- Make giving information easy and incentivized (e.g., swag for info).
- Assign team accountability.
“If your growing church is not seeing at least 2%, you’re not capturing enough... You’re frankly underperforming.” — Rich Birch (07:40) “You’re just gathering a crowd, you’re not building a community.” — Rich Birch (10:00)
- (06:08–12:38)
2. New Donor Retention Gap
- Why It Matters: New donor churn drains long-term resource stability.
- Evaluation Method: Compare overall donor retention with that of first-year donors (e.g., donors from 2024—have they given again in 2025?).
- Consequences: High new donor loss means short-term giving feasts mask a fragile base.
- Practical Advice:
- Implement a 48-hour thank-you system (handwritten notes, calls).
- Regularly report donor impact.
- Move new donors to recurring giving.
“You will discover that you’ve been funding your church... with a series of one-night stands. People who give once but don’t come back.” — Rich Birch (15:44)
- (12:39–21:12)
3. Follow-Up Speed (Speed to First Touch)
- Core Principle: "Delay means decay." Quick, passionate follow-up makes guests stick.
- Ideal Practice: 7 contacts in the first 11 days ("7/11 principle").
- Actionable Process:
- Sunday: Handwritten note at guest kiosk.
- Sunday night: Staff call/text.
- Monday: Welcome email.
- Tuesday: Volunteer follow-up call.
“Too many churches are too scared to show some intensity and passion in their follow up process... Speed is the new currency.” — Rich Birch (22:53) “I bet your dentist is better at following up with you... than your church is.” — Rich Birch (24:10)
- (21:13–27:30)
4. Kids and Students Capacity Ratio (Family Filter)
- Vital Ratio: Aim for 30% of your church's attendance as kids and youth (under 18).
- Below 20% signals families are slipping away; above 30% is excellent.
- Why It Matters: The single strongest indicator of long-term health. Adult-only growth is unsustainable.
“If you’re just attracting older adults, your church doesn’t have a future.” — Rich Birch (29:15) “Without families, frankly your church doesn’t have a future. ...The next generation is burning off.” — Rich Birch (30:32)
- Advice: Track, don't guess. Compare year over year. Listen to why families leave.
- (27:31–35:40)
5. Staffing Leverage (Leaders vs. Doers)
- Core Warning: Over-hiring staff at the expense of volunteers signals the start of decline.
- Benchmark: 75–100 attendees per full-time staff; staffing should be <50% of the budget.
- Leadership Principle: Staff should equip, not hoard tasks (“equippers, not doers”).
“If it feels like you’re understaffed, that’s a good thing.” — Rich Birch (36:13) “Staff who insist on doing everything aren’t heroes, they’re bottlenecks.” — Rich Birch (41:38)
- Advice:
- Track % of adults serving.
- Regularly move staff-held tasks to capable volunteers.
- Develop leadership pipelines.
- (35:41–43:37)
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
- On Growth Masking Weakness:
“Growth is toxic, or can be toxic, if it masks underlying weaknesses. It’s like a sugar high with no protein in your meal.” — Rich Birch (04:04)
- On Donor Care:
“Treat new donors in your church like little seedlings... Early care determines long term fruit.” — Rich Birch (19:45)
- On Family Ministries:
“You might be celebrating growth today, but ...if kids are not in the mix... your church literally might just be getting a year older every year.” — Rich Birch (33:23)
- On Leadership Culture:
“Staff who reach for another hire instead of mobilizing aren’t scaling ministry, they’re frankly slowing it down...” — Rich Birch (41:58)
- Cautionary Close:
“The decline of a church starts the day after its best day.” — Rich Birch (44:21) “Winter is coming. We need to work now...” — Rich Birch (45:35)
Action Checklist for Leaders
- Audit and benchmark:
- Guest info capture rate (2%)
- New donor retention (first–second gift)
- Follow-up speed (7 touches in 11 days)
- Kids/youth % of attendance (aim for 30%)
- Staff:attendee ratio (75–100:1) and budget %
- Assign ownership for each metric
- Communicate urgency—healthy growth takes work beneath the surface
- Invest in stronger systems and leadership pipelines
Final Encouragement
Growth is both a gift and a test. Church leaders must look beneath the surface numbers to steward growth in ways that will sustain mission and impact—not just today, but for years and generations to come.
“Don’t let your church’s growth kill your church’s growth.” — Rich Birch (47:15)
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