Weather Guard Lightning Tech

WindQuest Advisors on Repowering and Rising O&M Costs

Dan Fesenmeyer, Managing Partner at WindQuest Advisors, joins to discuss the repowering rush and the FAA permitting stall, rising O&M costs on larger turbines, tariff pass-throughs, and AI data center demand.

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Allen Hall: Dan, welcome back to the podcast.

Dan Fesenmeyer: It’s great to be here. Great to see you again.

Allen Hall: There is so much happening in your particular area. Your name pops up quite a bit within Weather Guard because, uh, we’re dealing with a lot of operators and- A number of times we’ll ask them, “Have you read your turbine supply agreement?”

“No.” “Have you read your full service agreement?” “No.” “Well, maybe you should do that.” And then we say, “Have you talked to Dan? You should call Dan, ’cause he can help you understand what you have signed.” Mm-hmm. “Oh, that’s probably a good idea.” So now that you’re here, WindQuest Advisors, of course, obviously is your company.

Mm-hmm. And you’re talking to a number of operators. The, the big hurdle at the minute, the nearest short-term hurdle, is repowering. There’s just a lot of [00:01:00] repowering efforts going on- Mm-hmm … trying to get turbines in, start a project. There’s a July 4th deadline and an end of the year deadline. There’s a couple deadlines after that.

What are you seeing right now from operators i- in terms of repowering? What’s the effort happening?

Dan Fesenmeyer: Well, there was a ton of effort to start physical work. That window’s obviously closing-

Allen Hall: Yes …

Dan Fesenmeyer: very quickly, but it’s still open. Uh, and then once you’re past that window, my understanding is if you get your repower completed by the end of ’27, you didn’t really need to have started physical work.

But I think most folks, start physical work is kind of the insurance piece of it-

Allen Hall: Sure …

Dan Fesenmeyer: if things take longer. Uh, another thing that’s popped up is obviously FAA and other permitting.

Allen Hall: On the permitting side, from the federal’s, uh, standpoint, is that stopped? Or, or are projects able to continue putting turbines in the ground, or what’s the status?

Dan Fesenmeyer: My- From what I’ve seen, I think on the opening session here at [00:02:00] ACP, it was said, they said that there’s, like, 130 projects that are-

Allen Hall: At least …

Dan Fesenmeyer: caught. Yes. And I’m, I’m involved with some of them, and I have a fairly small shop, and there’s just no FAA variances or permits or- They’re not issuing- … mitigation studies.

Everything seems to have stopped.

Allen Hall: So they’re not even reviewing the documentation that’s been submitted by the operators at all?

Dan Fesenmeyer: That’s what it seems, yes. Yeah.

Allen Hall: Is that legal? Uh, uh, usually those federal requirements have a timeline which they’re able to review those permits and get them approved or disapproved them.

You’re s- Right … I think what I’m hearing is, what you’re saying is they’re not even looking at them.

Dan Fesenmeyer: That’s correct. That’s what I’ve heard and seen.

Allen Hall: Okay.

Dan Fesenmeyer: Yeah. Yeah.

Allen Hall: So what is an operator to do then? How does this, how do they meet some of these deadlines if they can’t get the permit?

Dan Fesenmeyer: Well, I mean, it stalled a lot of projects ’cause of the associated risk with it.

Although I’ve seen some, uh, you know, some repower folks think, “Well, you know, I’m just repair- repowering like for like, or I’m not changing much.” [00:03:00] But if your, if your rotor’s changing or pad location’s changing, you need to update those permits.

Allen Hall: So the, the groups and the operators that are repowering the existing turbines are putting basically the same turbine in the same hole.

Dan Fesenmeyer: Well,

Allen Hall: I- Would that be okay?

Dan Fesenmeyer: I would say originally- The initial push on repower was kind of your larger rotors- Sure … new drivetrain, et cetera. Yes. The market seemed to shift more towards, “Hey, let’s do smaller upgrades, component exchanges.”

Allen Hall: Okay.

Dan Fesenmeyer: Getting more towards the minimal investment, so to speak.

Allen Hall: The 80% investment portion.

Dan Fesenmeyer: Yes.

Allen Hall: Right.

Dan Fesenmeyer: Yeah. And less about, you know, a big new machine head, for example.

Allen Hall: Well, if that gets you through and gets you the, the, uh, tax credit started back up again, which is the whole point- Right … there would be a reason to do that.

Dan Fesenmeyer: That’s right.

Allen Hall: Is there a marketplace then for those components if you’re gonna repower a GE 1.5 machine, which there’s a lot of them- Mm-hmm

in the United States? Are you seeing a big emphasis to go get a new gearbox, [00:04:00] to upgrade the blades- Yeah, and, and- … kind of

Dan Fesenmeyer: thing? Or just do maybe a drivetrain and s- Okay … and leave the rotor or, or-

Allen Hall: So do a gearbox and-

Dan Fesenmeyer: Yeah. Gear or just full drivetrain- Or generator … or yeah, s- things like that. And, um- Wow

people are comfortable doing it, and then it’s e- it’s easier, obviously.

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