Upzoned Podcast Summary
Episode: How To Handle the Looming Shortage of Senior Housing
Release Date: February 19, 2025
Hosts: Abby Newsham and Norm Van Eeden Petersman
Guest: Norm Van Eeden Petersman, Director of Movement Building for Strong Towns

1. Introduction

In this episode of Upzoned, host Abby Newsham welcomes Norm Van Eeden Petersman, a key member of the Strong Towns team, to discuss a pressing issue highlighted in a recent Wall Street Journal article by Peter Grant titled "Aging Boomers are About to Rekindle the Senior Housing Market." The conversation delves into the anticipated shifts in the U.S. senior housing market as the baby boomer generation ages.

2. Overview of the Wall Street Journal Article

The episode kicks off with an overview of Grant's article, which forecasts a major transformation in the senior housing landscape. By 2030, over 4 million Americans will enter the 80-plus age bracket, exponentially increasing the demand for senior living facilities. However, the sector faces significant hurdles:

• High Interest Rates and Construction Costs: These economic factors deter developers from embarking on new senior housing projects.
• Historical Overbuilding: Past overexpansion in the market leads to hesitancy in current investments.
• Developer Strategies: Instead of building anew, major players are opting to acquire existing senior communities, which are more cost-effective but may not meet the diverse needs of the aging population.

3. Defining Senior Housing

Abby initiates a discussion on the varying definitions of senior housing, noting that perceptions differ widely. Norm elaborates on the broad spectrum encompassed by the term:

“If you spell it out and sound it out, you'll get there eventually... there’s quite a range from 55-plus retirement communities to senior care homes.”
(00:52)

He emphasizes that senior housing isn't monolithic, ranging from upscale luxury retirement communities to independent living facilities and senior care homes. This diversity presents both opportunities and challenges in addressing the needs of all seniors.

4. Market Projections and Challenges

The anticipated surge in the 80-plus demographic poses a dual-edged sword:

• Increased Demand: The influx of older adults requires a substantial expansion of senior housing facilities.
• Supply Constraints: High costs and previous market saturation limit the ability of developers to respond effectively.

Norm warns of potential future overdependence on specific types of senior housing, which could lead to another surplus when demand fluctuates:

“We may actually be over committing ourselves... setting ourselves up for yet another type of overdependence on a singular type of product.”
(09:00)

5. Affordability and Accessibility Concerns

A significant concern raised is the affordability of new senior housing options. As developers prioritize luxury amenities to attract wealthier retirees, seniors on fixed incomes may find accessible and affordable housing increasingly scarce. Norm discusses the risk of creating exclusive communities that do not serve the broader senior population:

“If we attract only a single type of facility... we are setting ourselves up for dependent fragile systems.”
(10:40)

6. Adaptable and Inclusive Housing Models

The discussion shifts to innovative housing models that promote adaptability and inclusivity:

• Age-In-Place Units: Examples include constructing additional units on existing properties to allow seniors to stay in familiar surroundings while receiving necessary care.
• Housing Cooperatives: Norm introduces a project in his community aiming to create a housing co-op where seniors can share resources and support each other without losing their connections to their neighborhoods.

He shares a personal example:

“I have a backlog that we can respond to with incremental development projects... something that allows people to thrive.”
(09:00)

7. Policy and Zoning Implications

Zoning laws and parking requirements significantly impact the adaptability of senior housing:

• Parking Minimums: These regulations often hinder the creation of ground-level accessible units by mandating excessive parking spaces.
• Adaptive Reuse: Encouraging the use of existing properties for senior housing through policy adjustments can unlock potential housing solutions.

Norm advocates for policy reforms that lower parking requirements and promote mixed-use developments:

“We need to knock down the parking requirements... exposed, out in the air.”
(25:17)

8. Future Outlook and Potential Market Shifts

Looking ahead, Norm expresses concerns about the sustainability of the current market trajectory:

• Home Equity and Reverse Mortgages: As seniors age in place, financial instruments like reverse mortgages may compel the sale of homes, potentially flooding the market with aged properties not suited for younger generations.
• Generational Housing Strain: The disparity between boomers holding significant home equity and younger generations struggling to afford housing creates a precarious balance.

He predicts:

“I just don’t see how that’s not possible... how we find the money for this.”
(25:44)

9. Concluding Thoughts

In wrapping up, Norm emphasizes the importance of local advocacy in shaping adaptable and resilient communities. He remains cautiously optimistic, highlighting that seniors can be powerful advocates for livable, walkable neighborhoods if given the opportunity:

“There’s a wide open door for you to be an advocate at the local level to help make your place stronger.”
(34:43)

10. Down Zone Highlights

The episode concludes with the "Down Zone" segment, where guests share personal recommendations and interests:

• Norm's Recommendations:

  • "You'll Pay for How We Can Afford a Great City for Everyone Forever" by Mitch (upcoming book)
  • "Streams of Consequence" by Loren Fitch, a reflective work on conservation and community stewardship.

• Abby's Share:

  • Abby discusses her passion for painting, showcasing her latest work depicting a bustling café scene, emphasizing her longing for vibrant community interactions despite the cold February weather.

Notable Quotes:

• Abby Newsham:
  “I do want to kind of go back to this conversation about what is senior housing to begin with... there’s different types of senior living facilities.”
  (03:17)

• Norm Van Eeden Petersman:
  “We need to knock down the parking requirements... exposed, out in the air.”
  (25:17)

• Norm Van Eeden Petersman:
  “If we attract only a single type of facility... we are setting ourselves up for another type of overdependence on a singular type of product.”
  (10:40)

• Norm Van Eeden Petersman:
  “There’s a wide open door for you to be an advocate at the local level to help make your place stronger.”
  (34:43)

This episode of Upzoned offers a comprehensive examination of the impending senior housing shortage, emphasizing the need for adaptable, inclusive, and policy-supported housing solutions to meet the diverse needs of the aging population.